Sharp Bounds on Continuous Treatment Effects under Unobserved Confounding

arXiv:2610.33278v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We study partial identification of conditional treatment effects with a continuous treatment under unobserved confounding. We target the conditional average potential outcome (CAPO) E[Y_x|z] and the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) between two treatment levels. We assume a bounded outcome and Lipschitz continuity of the response functions and of the propensity scores given the latent confounder, and show that these conditions imply the smooth treatment response and smooth treatment selection conditions of Kim et al. (2018). The combined bound of Kim et al. uses only two reference points on the identified diagonal and is generally loose. Bounding through every diagonal reference point instead gives explicit bounds whose average is the sharp identified set of the CAPO at every treatment, inside or outside the observational support. Capping the difference between the upper and lower bounds gives sharp causal bounds on the CATE. These bounds are informative without monotonicity or overlap assumptions.

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