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Quantiles, Not Points: Streaming Quantile Matching for Ordinal-Aware LLM-as-a-Judge Calibration

arXiv AI · WORLD · AI · 11/3/2026, 12:00:00 AM

arXiv:2611.00447v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LLM-as-a-judge scores are often distributionally shifted from human ratings on any given evaluation task, and post-hoc calibration (mapping LLM to human scores in a small labeled anchor set) has become a popular method to correct for this shift. In this paper we derive the calibration from two positions: that LLMaJ scores are ordinal ratings drawn from a distribution rather than isolated points. We present streaming quantile matching (SQM), a version of a classical method not previously bench marked for LLMaJ calibration, which is built on the two positions by computing the optimal-transport map between the LLM and human score distributions. We develop an evaluation framework and within it we show that unlike point-wise calibrations, SQM respects the ordinality of the human anchor set and achieves the best distributional fidelity and the top overall rank across models and data. We also show that in general, post-hoc calibration narrows the raw error gap between smaller and larger judge models, which opens the possibility of more efficient LLM judges.

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