,,sibylla ,,or ,,the ,,revival ,,of ,,prophecy ,most ,popular ,titles in the ,,today ,,and ,,tomorrow ,,series ,to those who are just beginning the ,,today and ,,tomorrow ,,series1 the ,publishers recommend the following volumes3 ,,daedalus1 ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,callinicus1 ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,icarus1 ,bertrand ,russell ,,what ,i ,,believe1 ,bertrand ,russell ,,birth ,,control ,,and ,,the ,,state1 ,c4 ,p4 ,blacker ,,lysistrata1 ,anthony ,ludovici ,,hypatia1 ,mrs4 ,bertrand ,russell ,,prometheus1 ,dr4 ,h4 ,s4 ,jennings ,,thrasymachus1 ,c4 ,e4 ,m4 ,joad ,,midas1 ,h4 ,c4 ,bretherton ,,plato',s ,,american ,,republic1 ,j4 ,d4 ,woodruff ,,ouroboros1 ,garet ,garrett ,for complete list of titles send for circular4 ,,sibylla or ,,the ,,revival ,,of ,,prophecy ,,by ,c4 ,a4 ,,mace1 ,m4,a4 ,lecturer in ,logic and ,psychology at the ,university of ,st4 ,andrews ,illustration ,new ,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,fifth ,avenue ,published1 #aibg ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,all rights reserved ,,printed ,,in ,,the ,,united ,,states ,,of ,,america ,,foreword ,can ,prophecy be a science8 ,science at any rate1 appears to aim at prophecy4 ,we are often told that the test of an hypothesis lies in the events that it predicts2 but it is a test that is much too rarely applied4 ,we are surprised when ,biologists apply it in a systematic way to the theory of evolution4 ,historians also tell us that the study of the past will help us to foresee the future1 but in their practice they hardly succeed in catching up to the present4 ,the organum of human knowledge1 in fact1 presents a curious spectaclea vast system of foundations but no sign of the edifice these foundations are to bear4 ,at least such was the case until recently4 ,in the little prophetic volumes recently published we can see1 perhaps1 the preliminary sketch of its imposing elevation4 ,and so another question occurs4 ,what is the future of prophecy8 ,psychical research may even yet surprise us4 ,latent powers of divination may lurk in the human mind1 but it is premature no doubt to look for enlightenment here4 ,less sensational but more significant is the emergence of the prophetic function in the work of science itself1 and in the pedestrian progress of our general intellectual life in the twentieth century4 ,it was this prophetic function of scientific thought which the author set out in this little book to investigate1 but like other writers in the series he was tempted to 8try out0 some tentative principles which seemed to promise well4 ,perhaps the future will reveal some inaccuracies in his forecast1 but the digression has been worth while4 ,one thing1 at least1 is certain4 ,large scale organization extends to the work of science4 ,in our past experiments we have been too much concerned with events of short duration1 with the kind of results we could obtain for rapid publication1 and with cycles that fall within the span of an individual life4 ,even now we have insufficient data to decide whether cold winters come in periods of seventy or eighty years1 a ridiculously easy problem which a little organization would have solved4 ,but every year will add to the fund of carefully recorded data4 ,men are learning to co-operate through time4 ,experiments initiated by the father are continued by the son1 and succeeding generations will record the results4 ,organization provides a workable alternative to the invention of ,methuselahs2 though it would simplify things considerably if ,nature could see her way to adopt the suggestion of ,mr ,shaw4 ,more than anywhere else perhaps this kind of organization is needed for sociological and biological experiment4 ,by that way we shall obtain the knowledge upon which scientific prophecy may be based4 ,in the meantime1 let us speculate4 ,speculation is not a deadly sin1 but an aid to true perspective1 and it is suggestive of good hypotheses4 ,nor need our speculations1 even now1 be wholly in the air4 ,we have the broad tendencies of the past on which to base our forecast4 ,the danger lies in a premature attempt to elucidate the details4 ,the older prophets tried to foresee particular events1 the newer are content with the general tendencies4 ,knowledge grows not like a crystal by minute accretions1 but like a work of art1 from outline down to detail guided by inspirationwhich1 in science1 is speculation4 ,c4 ,a4 ,m4 ,,sibylla ,,or ,,the ,,revival ,,of ,,prophecy ,i ,experience enables us to defend in age the prejudices of our youth1 and belatedly to realize ambitions forsaken in earlier years4 ,this would seem to be true not only of individuals but of institutions also4 ,modern science1 adolescent in the nineteenth century1 shows signs of middle age2 and with it that mellowed and urbane tolerance which fosters idealism and optimistic projects1 projects which the realism and studied pessimism of youth declare to be beyond all powers of attainment4 ,the researches of ,rutherford and his fellow-workers have disposed the serious physicist to dally once more with the ,philosopher's ,stone4 ,again we hope to transmute the baser metals into gold4 ,indeed1 the ,philosopher's ,stone is found4 ,japanese physicists claim that a magnification #b1ejj times of the produce of their experiments enables us actually to photograph the world's augmented gold-supply4 ,furthermore1 the progress of knowledge concerning atomic structure and radiant energy promises to endow man with the powers and range of influence for which the magicians of old had such a notable though undeserved reputation4 ,since ,freud1 the interpretation of dreams has become a serious pre-occupation of the grave and a further relaxation for the gay4 ,i need not1 however1 multiply examples4 ,let us turn forthwith to the latest phase in this developmentthe revival of prophecy4 ,prophecy1 of course1 has never wholly died4 ,though the soothsayer fell into disrepute and was banished from the temple precincts to earn a precarious livelihood on ,margate ,sands1 his mantle has fallen on ,mr ,wells4 ,mr ,wells1 however1 is merely a prophet of the transition1 the journalese precursor of a new and hardier race whose influence in the world ,i suspect will prove much greater4 ,like the modern prophets generally1 he has substituted for revelation and intuition a thorough-going reliance upon the mundane intellect1 fed upon scientific generalizations and historical particularities4 ,mr ,bernard ,shaw is another of the transition prophets1 having marked affinities to the new ,biological ,school2 but1 like the rest1 is transitional in lacking the regalia of office and authority with which the newer prophets are endowed4 ,the first of the prophets of the twentieth-century school was ,mr ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane4 ,in ,daedalus we find a frank abandonment of the pose of scientific reserve about the future4 ,scientists generally for long had said that they were concerned only with verifiable facts4 ,newton1 in particular1 had said quite publicly that he had no use for hypotheses2 and his successors for the sake of their reputations had to keep up the ,newtonian manner4 ,to distinguish themselves from journalists and philosophers they avoided speculation like a plague4 ,now ,haldane found himself1 ,i imagine1 somewhat unduly constrained by this taboo4 ,pursuing the most rigid methods of inquiry1 he had come to conclusions about some probable developments in the future1 conclusions much less speculative than many of the things it was his duty as a biologist to teach about the past4 ,so he prophesied4 ,the relief in the scientific world was heartfelt and instantaneous4 ,scientists and others1 of various degrees of eminence1 literally scrambled into ,mr ,haldane's bus4 ,in the year or so that followed some twenty prophetic volumes had been produced1 and the publishers tell us of many others in the press4 ,however1 in many of these documents we fail to detect the authentic guiding hand1 and these uncanonical works we must leave to the ,higher ,critics of the future4 ,the genuine prophet is to be known by his strictly impersonal manner4 ,he tells you neither what he wants nor what he fears4 ,so far as we can judge1 he has no wants or fears4 ,he merely tells you what is going to be4 ,judged by this test we must1 ,i think1 reject ,thrasymachus1 as purely propagandist4 ,mr ,joad wants to popularize immorality4 ,he tries to persuade us to join the ranks of the libertines lest we be swamped in the coming ,neopuritan revival4 ,by the same token we must1 reluctantly1 reject ,mrs ,bertrand ,russell4 ,in ,hypatia the quasi-prophetic rle is assumed1 we fear1 merely as a vantage point from which to wage sex-war4 ,coming to the genuine prophets1 ,i would divide them into two kinds2 the mechanists and the vitalists1 not however1 using these terms in their traditional philosophical senses4 ,the mechanists are those who view the future in terms of the development of machinery4 ,man1 having a nature very much what it is to-day1 is seen in an environment of mechanical perfection1 a world of wireless telegraphy1 television1 fuelless traffic1 moving pavements1 rubber roads1 windows of flexible glass1 rustless metals1 dustless and smokeless cities1 and private houses fit for a plumber's paradise4 ,the vitalists1 of whom ,i take ,mr ,haldane to be the leading spokesman1 have a message in the face of which the wonders of wireless are relatively tame4 ,the time has come1 they say1 when our science and our inventive genius are to be applied to life itself4 ,in a sense1 of course1 the journalists and men of letters got in first4 ,kapek with his ,robots made the idea dramatic2 but the mechanical tradition was too strong4 ,the ,robot was little more than clockwork4 ,wells's 8,men like ,gods0 are perhaps a slight advance1 but the gods are all too human1 and a bit too much like ,mr ,wells4 ,shaw1 ,i think1 got nearest4 ,in ,back to ,methuselah the problem of biological invention was approached in a more biological manner4 ,but all these are prophets of the transition4 ,they are at heart ,utopians1 and neglect the evidences of the present upon which the forecast must be based4 ,,ii ,it would tempt us too far afield to inquire into the logical foundations of the new science of 8,prophetics01 as no doubt this branch of learning will be called4 ,a young science must not at first aim at too much systematic order1 nor be too introspective4 ,let us1 rather1 glance into the future and try to fill in the larger of the empty spaces in the vision so far presented to our eyes4 ,we can readily grant at the outset all that the mechanists claim4 ,in fact1 there is nothing1 ,i think1 unlikely in the suggestion that1 so far as mechanical invention is concerned1 we are approaching the time when all that is physically possible will be realized4 ,the future customer at ,selfridges' who inquires for a teleofactor in order to smell the perfumes of ,arabia will be told that the impossibility of this has now been finally proved4 ,for the rest of his desires1 however1 he will be quite amply supplied4 ,he will have perfect wireless concerts and televisual cinemas2 he will be conveyed by the morning aerial ,pullman from his villa-palace in ,devonshire to his office in what was once the ,strand4 ,to his ,club or restaurant he will proceed by a moving pavement1 or in a bath-chair propelled by radiant power4 ,his week-ends may be spent in ,samarkand or in tobogganing on ,mount ,everest4 ,his wife1 too1 will benefit by this universal progress4 ,her day's work will be done by #i a4m4 ,the turning of a tap or two will nourish the ectogenetic child foretold by ,mr ,haldane1 and the pressing of a button will put in action the automatic cook4 ,by wireless communication with ,paris she will choose a garment1 to be delivered by an aerial messenger boy upon his cycloplane4 ,after luncheon she will1 again by wireless1 put herself in visual and auditory contact with other members of the society to which she belongs4 ,it will probably be a society for the revival of twentieth-century customs4 ,but1 granting all this1 the obvious question occurs4 ,what will be its effect upon human nature8 ,is it conceivable that the perfecting of machinery could leave it unaffected1 and will not inevitably this inventive genius be turned upon man himself8 ,our future man of business who1 by improved modes of locomotion1 spends his week-ends in ,tennessee1 ,kikuyu1 or ,zanzibar 7according to his religious predilections71 will he enjoy only the advantages of mechanical invention8 ,surely a perfected ,pelmanism will enable him to learn three native languages on the ,friday's journey out1 and an improved process of repression assist him to forget them on the ,sunday evening's journey home4 ,this is not entirely idle speculation4 ,applications of science to the control of the human mind have already begun4 ,they started1 perhaps1 in the crude and blundering experiments in ,scientific ,management4 ,they are groping towards more solid foundations in ,industrial ,psychologythe philosophical significance of which has1 up to the present1 escaped the attention it deserves4 ,consider briefly the course of this movement up to the present date4 ,sometime in the eighties ,taylor introduced his principles of ,scientific ,management4 ,some ingenious spirit1 indirectly inspired no doubt by him1 produced the following invention for organizing the activities of man4 ,a certain ,american establishment paid its employees on the basis of #8task work'1 i4e4 upon piece rates with a time-limit for the performance of the unit-task4 ,the worker was paid a #be bonus on the ordinary wage for the performance of his task1 but the task and time-setter was paid a bonus based upon the number of men who failed to earn their bonuses4 ,the apparent disadvantage to the worker1 however1 was counterbalanced by providing him with a foreman who also was paid upon the basis of the number of men under him who #8made their tasks'4 ,as ,muscio#a comments1 8,the situation then was this3 ,the workman was given a bonus as an incentive to expend intense efforts to accomplishing a task in a set time2 the foreman was given #8blood money' to drive the man if he became slack1 and the task and time-setter was also paid #8blood money' to set the times so short that #8the making of the tasks' involved an expenditure of more than the greatest reasonable amount of energy40 ,the ,trade ,unions got to know of this1 with the result that ,scientific ,management of that sort is now as dead as mutton4 ,public interest subsides4 ,but in principle it was rightright in the sense that its inventor had a glimpse of something which is ultimately going to prove effective4 ,he made the mistake which probably every inventor makes4 ,he constructed a machine with the power to blow itself up2 but this only shows that power is there1 and power to be controlled4 ,the mistake1 of course1 was a natural one to make for people preoccupied with the parallelogram of forces4 ,another case supplies the necessary comment and indicates a more hopeful line of experiment4 #a ,muscio1 ,lectures on ,industrial ,psychology1 p4 #ci 7,routledge74 8,there was in operation for some years at the leper colony off the ,philippine ,islands a system of weekly gratuities to each man1 woman1 and child confined to the island colony4 ,from the women and children no accounting for the subsidy was required4 ,but from the men a certain amount of manual labour about the island was exacted upon penalty of having the pocket-money withheld4 ,from the administrative point of view this had seemed an easy solution for the difficult problem of getting adequate labour in an isolated place inhabited largely by the victims of a dread disease4 ,but the men patients took vigorous exception to this form of compulsory labour1 and finally made complaint about it to the ,philippine ,government4 ,an investigation into the unrest at the leper colony was instituted1 and the ,secretary of the ,interior visited the island and heard all the complaints in person4 ,as a result of his study the system of gratuities for the men was wiped out4 ,and the necessary work on the island was paid for at an agreed rate which1 it appeared later1 was less than the previous gratuity4 ,nevertheless1 the men found the new system preferable2 there was no more complaint1 the necessary work was done2 the men who were inclined to work received their stipends and the others not4 ,but from that day to the present trouble on this score has been unheard of40#b #b ,ordway ,tead1 ,instincts in ,industry1 p4 #a4 ,more systematic were the investigations in this country made under the ,ministry of ,munitions4 ,in the ,interim report of #aiag of the ,health of ,munition ,workers ,committee we find the following reference to incentives in industry3 8,it is essential that the wage system should be equitable and easily understood by the workers4 ,the evidence collected leaves no doubt that a wage system the operation of which cannot easily be understood by the wage earners 444 fails to serve as an incentive40 ,in fact1 the evidence in detail rather suggests that it is more important for the system to be intelligible than it is for it to be just4 ,as in the case of the ,philippine lepers a reduction of wages may in certain cases be the shortest remedy for industrial discontent1 just as the reduction of working hours has often been found to involve an increase in production4 ,more important1 however1 than juggling with the systems of remuneration is concentrated upon the subtler psychological factors in the situation4 ,politicians1 artists1 bishops1 and many members of the working-classes are played upon by forces which act more powerfully on their energies than any system of wages that could be applied to them2 the ambitions and interests of their wives1 the health of their children1 the criticism or adulation of their associates and a host of other factors of curious psychological interest4 ,is it beyond the wit of man to apply these forces in a scientific way8 ,one very instructive attempt was that of another ,american establishment1 which instituted the office of #8plant mother'4 8,it is her duty0 7as ,tead puts it71 8using this motherly disposition and attitude as an entering wedge1 to go among the men and help to straighten out their troubles with the management4 ,and one of the most successful weapons of appeal with her is said to be that she puts employes' problems in family terms4 ,for example1 a man will want to quit because of a slight ruction with a fellow-worker or a superior1 whereupon she will remind him that his little ,johnny should not be forced by father's unemployment to leave school to go to work1 or that another baby is coming in a couple of months and that he mustn't cause anxiety to #8the wife'4444 ,this particular #8plant mother'1 ,i am told1 has been instrumental in reducing the labour turnover to an astonishing extent40#c #c ,tead1 op4 cit41 p4 #bh4 ,my readers will be able to think of many other possible applications of this principle4 ,cannot our domestic parrot be turned to economic advantage8 ,its present function would seem to be only that of preserving the unity of private family life by giving its jaded members something to laugh and talk about when the bonds of common interest and filial piety are beginning to wear thin4 ,that which preserves the family from disruption and armies from revolt will surely soon be dedicated to the cause of peace in industry4 ,to these things we are gradually and insensibly being led1 so gradually and insidiously as to evade the inhibitory sense of the ludicrous4 ,already it is known that light1 ventilation1 and the general comfort of the worker are relevant to production4 ,by slight and inexpensive changes in these respects output may be augmented say #c4e or even #aj per cent1 and the worker suffers less from nervous irritability and is less punctual in paying his subscription to his union4 ,at any moment it may be found that hanging pictures on the workshop walls has a similar effect4 ,possibly ,landseer's would raise efficiency and contentment only #a per cent1 whilst ,sargent's would really justify their auction prices4 ,we should then discover a more satisfactory policy with regard to our ,national ,galleries4 ,we should go to ,port ,sunlight to see good pictures and the ,royal ,academy would become the testing hall for experiments in industrial art4 ,all this is coming about no longer by mere chance or blind experiment1 but by the operation of a principle which ,i take as a foundation stone for prophecy4 ,man has slowly and painfully acquired facility in adopting the scientific attitude of mind4 ,gradually he has been able to achieve this point of view in relation to the material universe4 ,but he finds a peculiar difficulty in being scientific in the face of the animate2 and the difficulty would appear to be almost insuperable in the face of mind4 ,it is because we are living at a time when the feat is being accomplished that ,i feel impelled to prophesy an important revolution1 a revolution beside which the ,bolshevic incident1 for instance1 is dwarfed to almost comical insignificance4 ,the revolutionists are level-headed but far-seeing men of business1 acting in alliance with the scientists4 ,here is their programme as voiced by ,professor ,catell in #aijc4 8,it is our business to make both a science and an art of human nature4 ,as in the physical world we select first the material suited to our purpose1 and turn the iron into steel1 and temper the steel for a knife1 so in the world of human action we must learn to select the right man1 to educate him and fit him for his exact task4 ,this indeed we try to do in all our institutions1 religions1 commerce1 system of education1 and government4 ,but we work by rule of thumbblind1 deaf1 and wasteful4 ,the nineteenth century witnessed an extraordinary increase in our knowledge of the material world1 and in our power to make it subservient to our ends2 the twentieth century will probably witness a corresponding increase in our knowledge of human nature and in our power to use it for our welfare40#d #d ,homo ,scientificus ,americanus3 ,science1 ,april #aj1 #aijc4 ,let us note the implications of this programme4 ,at present we have made but a few experiments and a few discoveries in industrial psychology4 ,the future1 however1 is to see the principle applied to education1 criminology1 government1 war1 perhaps religion and the intimate personal life of man4 ,can we foresee the consequences8 ,to some extent1 ,i think1 we can4 ,as ,dr ,fournier d',albe puts it in the first of his prophetic volumes1#e we have but to extrapolate the curves of present developments into the future4 ,we must1 however1 also take into account so far as possible some of the other factors at work4 ,the general course of evolution is in outline known to be one of differentiation1 specialization1 integration1 growing consciousness of ends1 and substitution of systematic experiment in place of blind trial and error4 ,we shall find other clues which1 carefully studied1 enable us to speak about the future with at least as much assurance as biologists and anthropologists enjoy in speaking about the remoter past4 ,we shall1 moreover1 have the added benefit of finding confirmation in the years to come4 #e ,quo ,vadimus4 ,,iii ,facts brought to light in the sphere of industry have an application in politics1 so to politics and the arts of government let us turn4 ,let politicians consider1 for example1 the discovery that the incidence of shell-shock in war1 and of nervous disorders in peace1 is highest in the dangerous occupations which are also the occupations most liable to industrial unrest4 ,such facts prevent us from viewing the discontented worker either as a martyred idealist1 or as a mere criminal4 ,the case is paralleled by the suggestion that desertion and malingering in exhausted armies are symptoms or #8defence reactions' in incipient shell-shock4 ,they force upon us a more dispassionate and a more therapeutic point of view4 ,the criminal in general is coming to be regarded in this light4 ,turn now to the anarchist1 and the psycho-analyst explains to you that his activities are minor symptoms of his #8father complex'1 which imprisonment1 for example1 will merely intensify4 ,from knowledge of the conditions of these things proceeds control4 ,possibly punitive measures may be genuinely counteracting causes4 ,perhaps1 however1 empirical science may declare that the best treatment for an anarchist is to make him a ,lord ,mayor1 and the best remedy for a militant labour party is a term of office judiciously supervised by our permanent officials4 ,the future student of social affairs will be preoccupied with the scientific investigation of the sources of power and its social reservoirs4 ,the #8party in power'1 as it is charitably called1 has not much of it4 ,public opinion seems to have much more4 ,in fact1 the chief function of a government1 now-a-days1 seems to be that of carrying out the programme of the opposition4#f ,the opposition is relatively free from criticism2 the ,government moves in dread of it1 being threatened by attrition in its bye-elections and by a general landslide at any appeal to the country4 #f ,we have recently witnessed a paralysed ,labour ,government incapable of carrying out its projected remedies for industrial ills1 and a ,conservative ,government maintaining a system of ,free ,trade4 ,under such conditions the essential tasks of government are very much the same of whatever political colour the party in power may be4 ,first and foremost it has to deal with emergencies1 whether spontaneously arising or organized by the opposition1 in such a way as to preserve its popularity with the public4 ,it has also to carry out more or less efficiently the routine work of government1 and it has to prepare for the next election by enshrining its most permanent tactical advantages within the framework of the ,constitution4 ,any time and energy that may be left can be devoted to carrying out its #8programme' and in dealing with what it conceives to be the fundamental disorders of society4 ,a #8party programme'1 like a dream1 has a manifest and a latent content4 ,the manifest content is drawn from the incidents of the day and popular demands4 ,the latent is constituted by those deeper policies for the furtherance of which this clap-trap may be closed4 ,the distinction between the manifest and the latent content is not due1 as is frequently asserted1 to mere political dishonesty but to the necessities of the case2 the primitive group mind's need of a #8,cause' and of an outward and visible sign of an inward and spiritual economic doctrine4 ,with the increased complexity and scientific character which the latent content is1 in future1 likely to assume political sacramentalism will become more and more important4 ,how will this affect the issue of our present discontents8 ,viewing the situation frankly1 we find in society two powerful and opposed forces4 ,let us adopt the convenient labels and call them ,capital and ,labour4 ,it would take us too far afield to discuss in detail the prospects of success in each of the various remedies suggested for their enmity4 ,in general1 it seems to me that all the proposals depend for their success upon large-scale persuasion1 and ignore the fundamental causes of unrest and conflict4 ,even labour1 it seems to me1 is mistaken about the causes of its troubles1 and labour might be expected to know them best4 ,but even to ask this would be as unreasonable as to ask a patient to diagnose and prescribe for his own disease4 ,the solution1 ,i venture to think1 will come along the lines upon which the only solution of any problem has ever before been foundalong the lines of exact and scientific thought and piecemeal investigation4 ,the recognition of this combined with attention to the apparent power of public opinion in modern politics has led many to suppose that the ultimate remedy lies in the dissemination of education1 of exact and scientific thought throughout our great democracies4 ,but1 personally1 ,i doubt the possibility of disseminating anything1 least of all scientific habits or attitudes of mind4 ,it would seem to violate the rule of differentiation4 ,nor can ,i bring myself to believe that there ever was or is ever likely to be a democracy in any important sense4 ,it is sufficient if this scientific spirit be exploited by those who hold the reins of power1 and it is because it seems that they are beginning to see the possibilities of this that ,i think the really significant revolution is to come4 ,what is called #8,public ,opinion' is now-a-days a carefully manufactured article produced by firms entirely outside the scope of the ,factory ,acts4 ,of course1 even a despotism is a #8democracy' in the unimportant sense that the despot's rule depends upon a certain kind of consent4 ,what has happened lately is that a new kind of leader has been evolved4 ,the old leader ruled by certain kind of obvious strength4 ,the new ruler practices an art4 ,he is moreover1 a student of the science of persuasion4 ,he appeals through various media directly to the masses1 and does not so much inspire confidence as suggest that he is only a more articulate spokesman of their will4 ,the contrast is rather like that between coercion and hypnotism1 two obvious ways of making people do as you wish2 and the transition from one to the other does not seem to me to be adequately described as a passage to democracy4 ,the future1 it seems1 will see these powers scientifically employed4 ,much has been learnt by crude empirical methods4 ,the newspapers1 the advertising agencies1 and the publicity departments have a store of knowledge upon which politicians are wisely beginning to draw4 ,soon they may attend to ,mr ,bertrand ,russell1 who in his prophetic volume1 foresees the development of glandular psychology4 ,we know that by suitable injections a person's emotional mood can be changed1 and ,russell suggests that a simple operation like compulsory vaccination will convert the reddest ,bolshevic to the temperament of the mildest curate4 ,the glands of docility will be under government control4 ,the suggestion appears to me to be over-simple1 and to belong to the mechanistic type of prophecy4 ,its supreme simplicity is in this connection its supreme defect4 ,the only defence against democracy is a complicated mode of government4 ,if methods of government are foolproof then any one can practice it2 and a sudden coup d'tat1 or an invasion of half-a-dozen uninoculated savages1 would be an irrevocable disaster4 ,it is1 ,i think1 mainly through the development of scientifically conducted propaganda that the world may one day see the abandonment of force4 ,no wholesale change of heart will be involved4 ,it will simply be that a more efficient weapon will have been discovered1 a weapon that is preventive as well as corrective in its use4 ,the military mind is1 it is generally agreed1 conservative to the verge of sheer stupidity1 but even the military mind is becoming infected with the new ideas4 ,under the influence of ,captain ,liddel ,hart1 the military representative of the prophetic school with which we are concerned1 it will surely come to recognize 8the moral objective of war40#g ,even this author is conservative1 in regarding tanks and aeroplanes as being the principal weapons of the future4 ,with regard to the immediate future he may be right4 ,but the implication of his general thesis is that all these weapons will ultimately give place to subtler ones of psychological design4 ,hardly less effective than the #8death ray' in bending the enemy's will is the rumour that one has been invented4 ,and rumours can be invented daily in ,his ,majesty's ,office of ,propaganda4 ,and why stop at the control of fear8 ,why not apply psychology throughout the whole of the enemy's mental life8 ,perhaps1 in the last of all wars to end war1 victory will fall to the side which first makes its enemy laugh4 ,the power of a sense of humour1 at any rate1 is a terrible weapon in the negotiation of peace4 ,our late enemies would scarcely have fared so badly had they been less sparingly endowed with it in war4 #g ,see ,paris1 or the ,future of ,war4 ,humour has its applications in peace as in war4 ,under universal ,scientific ,management1 the ,government will vie with the underground railways for the control of public laughter4 ,the ,catholic ,church1 in enlisting the aid of ,chesterton and ,ronald ,knox against its irrefutable but dreary adversaries1 has for once in modern history placed itself in the vanguard of a winning cause4 ,the weapon has curious possibilities1 but is one difficult to employ4 ,quick wits sensitive to the trend of fashion are the essential qualifications for a ,minister of ,public ,humour4 ,for the joke is the most ephemeral of all works of art4 ,it takes years of patient research1 now1 to see the jokes of classical antiquity1 and pages of solemn argument to defend the taste of ,shakespeare in his humour4 ,differences of humour separate age from age and class from class4 ,it is the weakest link which binds the intellectuals to the cause of labour4 ,one might expect this weapon to favour established institutions1 for only the fat and prosperous can laugh with merriment1 but by the same token the jokes of ,marie ,antoinette were unintelligible to the hungry4 ,therefore the lean and plodding journalists will come into their own and take their place among the expert advisors to the future ,ministry of ,talents4 ,,iv ,education will perhaps be one of the most interesting fields of future scientific management4 ,at present we know a few bits of a few sciences1 and a handful of historical facts4 ,we fill the picture out with theories and blunderingly try to make other people memorize these things4 ,we call the process ,education4 ,we have invented a few devices for discovering what they forget1 and call them ,examinations4 ,recently we have invented a few tricks of exposing what they cannot do1 and we call them ,mental ,tests4 ,we wrap it all up in a tangle of loose philosophy1 and we call it ,the ,science of ,education4 ,we profess1 it is true1 some loftier pursuits4 ,we are trying1 we say1 to teach our pupils to think4 ,we try to mould their characters1 and we try to produce good citizens4 ,but what does it all amount to in the end8 ,the most successful way yet discovered of teaching people to think is for the teacher himself to think aloud1 and hope that his pupils will catch the knack4 ,how do we set about moulding the character of a child8 ,by moral precept1 good example1 healthy sport1 uplifting atmosphere1 and an unprincipled application of punishment and reward4 ,our children are bored by precepts4 ,they yawn in our presence and make fun of our precepts in our absence2 they break out at the first opportunity and 8sow their wild oats01 and then rediscover our old morality for themselves4 ,the more adventurous invent a new one of their own1 probably a finer thing than that we tried to teach4 ,our good examples produce two alternative effects4 ,if the child happens to like us1 he will imitate our actions1 and morality becomes an empty mimicry4 ,perhaps1 on the other hand1 we have an unfortunate mannerism or some innocent resemblance to a forgotten terror1 and the child dislikes us4 ,the good example is taken as a pattern of the thing to be avoided4 ,by counter-suggestion he takes the opposite course so far as in him lies4 ,the sons of clergymen might provide us with material for a theory of moral education4 ,our healthy sportsbut why go on8 ,it is not my intention to ridicule the best things that the wisdom of the ages has produced4 ,my only contention is that our methods of education are hopelessly tentative1 uncertain in their effects1 justifiable only on the ground that we cannot yet see clearly anything else to do4 ,but things will change4 ,already there is a science of education1 because people with scientific minds are thinking about the problems it presents4 ,they are experimenting1 and they are at least disclosing our ignorance4 ,experiments similar to those of ,scientific ,management are producing similar results4 ,we are beginning to know important things about the mind1 its natural development1 and the method by which it works4 ,already we know a good deal about the conditions of remembering1 enough at least to condemn1 if we dared to think out the implications of our knowledge1 many venerable educational practices4 ,some of the most important of our discoveries fall readily into line with the results of ,industrial ,psychology4 ,there seems1 for example1 to be a natural rate of working appropriate in learning1 appropriate rhythms of impression1 rest and recall1 by the operation of which knowledge becomes firmly embedded in the mind4 ,when these rhythms are ignored1 the evil effects of cramming are produced4 ,our educational methods in the school and in the university break and crush all these rhythms1 and students pass out into the world with mutilated minds4 ,the rhythms of life1 however1 present in every field possibilities of extensive modification4 ,that many needs demand a rhythmic satisfaction is well known1 but there is scope for detailed investigation and experiment here4 ,none of these natural periods seem to be absolutely fixed beyond all power of alteration4 ,the rhythms of digestion probably vary with the fashions of the age and class1 according as high teas or late dinners are in fashion4 ,they might under certain conditions have depended upon the tides2 and changes in our habits of taking nourishment would probably produce most interesting variations4 ,why should we sleep throughout the night1 and work throughout the day8 ,our habits in this respect were formed in the days before fire was stolen from the godsand they are wasteful habits1 too4 ,artificial light one day may easily come to be as cheap as water1 and man will change his ways of taking rest4 ,some experimenters urge that the most valuable part of sleep is in the first few minutes4 ,the remainder of the night we spend in dreams and in gradually waking up4 ,let us apply the principle of rest-pauses in a thorough-going way4 ,distributed periods of sleep might prove a great economy4 ,people will be taught to recline say once in every two hours1 and sleep for twenty minutes4 ,thus will be inaugurated the twenty-four hour day1 and a race of energetic ,napoleons will emerge4 ,but to return to general education4 ,why should the period of learning be concentrated wholly in the early years of life8 ,distributed periods of study will undoubtedly prove more effective1 say two hours every day1 or two days every week1 or1 if you like1 two continuous months in the year throughout the whole of life4 ,thus might come the solution to a variety of problems4 ,we have1 first of all1 the problems of education itself4 ,at present we arrange the life of a child so that a period of intensive cramming is followed by the abrupt cessation of intellectual life at the time when the intellect is just beginning to mature4 ,there is the problem of industrial fatigue1 due more often to monotony than to arduous labour4 ,recent researches afford scientific support to the adage that a change of work is as good as a holiday4 ,educational pursuits will provide the necessary change4 ,already many working men spend their evenings at classes and their only holiday at a summer school4 ,lastly there is the ever-growing problem of the prolongation of infancy4 ,under simpler conditions a child was adequately equipped for practical purposes by the age of ten or even younger4 ,now-a-days fourteen years is considered necessary1 whilst the professional man is almost thirty before he is fit to earn a livingand still there is more to learn4 ,given successful scientific research in this direction1 back we go to the methods of the early days of the ,industrial ,revolution with children employed in every factory4 ,under rational supervision it may prove a great advance4 ,the moral education which practical life alone can give will commence at the proper time4 ,children will be protected from the dangers of neglectful or over-solicitous parents4 ,they will acquire at an early age the much-required sense of responsibility and independence1 and their parallel work at school will acquire some semblance of significance and interest4 ,in addition to new rhythms and periods of study1 new methods will be employed4 ,probably the curriculum itself will be the first thing to be revised4 ,in spite of a good deal of relevant knowledge1 no one has yet consistently thought out an answer to the question3 ,what should a child be taught8 ,freed from the assumptions of faculty-psychology and from its present entanglements with external systems of examination1 the course of studies prescribed for the ordinary child would omit much that is now included and include much that is now ignored4 ,moreover1 the order of presentation both of subjects and of the material in each subject will undergo extensive alteration4 ,changes in this respect have already well begun1 and changes blindly initiated move towards enlightenment4 ,things are moving towards a triple control of the individual life1 one that roughly corresponds to the old control of the ,church and ,state1 with the added partnership of organized industry4 ,to the modern representative of the ,churchwhatever ultimate form this institution may takebelongs the function of guiding the individual for his own personal good4 ,it is a service which the ,church might easily have continued to perform1 but for its insistence upon doctrinal terms4 ,what was in effect a kind of strike of the religious ministry1 met by boycott on the side of the general public1 has led to the development of black leg service on the part of psychoanalysis and disinterested teachers4 ,at present the organization manifests all the muddle of an emergency supply4 ,children in over-crowded schools cannot obtain adequate individual guidance1 and the work of the psychoanalyst is curative only in exceptional cases1 and not1 as it should be1 universally preventive4 ,nevertheless1 feeling moves in the direction of agreement that something more must be done1 though as yet nothing like a constructive policy of personal guidance has emerged4 ,the activities of the ,state in this connection are likely to increase4 ,in earlier days a man could be born1 could live and die in comparative privacy4 ,now1 official notice is taken at least of his birth1 his marriage1 his income1 most of his crimes1 some at least of his diseases2 and his death1 too1 is registered4 ,the registration of particulars about the individual will extend to educational records1 abilities and disabilities1 and of all that is relevant to his social life4 ,much of this will be done by institutions of the kind which our present 8vocational bureaus0 dimly and crudely foreshadow4 ,ultimately a public service more or less ,state-controlled will be developed to mediate between ,education and ,industry4 ,when life becomes more fully organized into a system of interlacing rhythms1 the unit of the secondary ,educational ,system will be an institution embracing factory1 school1 and clinic under a single board of control with its industrial1 educational and medical representatives2 and the threefold plan will no doubt be adopted in both the higher and lower grades4 ,early in life some of the main tendencies and abilities of the child will be diagnosed and he will be sent to the appropriate school and industry4 ,doubtful and obscure cases will1 with the 8allround0 types1 be sent for a 8general education01 in the course of which1 however1 they will come under more careful examination4 ,by the age of ten or twelve the child's future course should in outline and general character be fairly clearly known1 and by sixteen he will have become more or less specialized to a certain type of course4 ,not1 however1 completely specialized4 ,to meet the problem of trade-fluctuations and consequent unemployment1 and as a preventive of industrial monotony1 each person will probably be taught a variety of pursuits1 achieving a balance appropriate to each case of mental and manual work4 ,the system of multiple vocations would probably be operated in conjunction with some form of industrial conscription2 for increased wisdom in government should by this time have undermined popular prejudice on this score4 ,at the prospect of such extensive changes in our educational institutions one wonders what is going to happen to our ancient and venerable universities4 ,they might1 consistently with all that has been said1 preserve their functions as specialized seats of learning2 but it is more likely that long before a rational system of education has been evolved they will have changed their character beyond all recognition4 ,in optimistic1 but perhaps short-sighted1 moments1 it is commonly supposed that with the increasing demand for education their future is assured1 and that they will assume ever-increasing importance and enjoy ever-growing popularity and respect4 ,let us1 however1 for a moment consider the instructive parallel of the ,holy ,catholic ,church1 the unfortunate history of which is a byword at the present day4 ,the causes of its decline do not1 ,i think1 include one that is frequently suggested4 ,men are not to-day less religious or less in need of its holy offices4 ,the change has come about not by decreased demands but by competition and an augmented supply4 ,men still need the things of which the ,church once held an almost complete monopoly4 ,they need some sort of philosophy1 some personal guidance in the difficult art of the moral life1 and many other things which once the ,church alone could give4 ,the invention of the ,press made possible the novelist4 ,the novelist found himself adopted as guide1 philosopher1 and friend4 ,the younger generation now-a-days acquires its general outlook from the novelists and playwrights1 who exercise an almost sacerdotal influence4 ,personal guidance is offered by the psychoanalyst4 ,he exercises the priestly functions of the confessional and of exorcizing demons2 whilst ,cou and his disciples offer a new technique of prayer4 ,the validity of these practices is not here my subject1 but the fact that people are getting what they want4 ,such new ways of meeting old demands are continually being found1 and may not the ,universities soon find themselves in the position of the ,church8 ,several things would make the suggestion plausible4 ,in the first place1 education is already being purveyed as a commercial product4 ,quite apart from the self-educators produced fortnightly by the ,press1 there are ,mind-training ,institutes and ,correspondence ,colleges4 ,universities at the present time can afford to ignore this competition4 ,they have1 they think1 the pull in traditional prestige1 the advantages of the tutorial system1 the general atmosphere of culture1 and they have1 we trust1 at present the most distinguished scholars4 ,but traditional prestige is a slippery foundation for any institution now-a-days4 ,the test that is being applied is that of practical efficiency4 ,already happy-go-lucky methods in ,university finance are being examined by ,royal ,commissions and by financial experts4 ,the next thing will be that they will start to scrutinize the educational methods being employed4 ,already1 moreover1 the newer institutions are being forced to mould themselves upon the model of an up-to-date business office4 ,soon they will adopt those well-proven adjuncts of commercial progressmodern methods of advertisement1 for instance4 ,when the printing press arose1 priests1 no doubt1 preserved their self-assurance by reliance upon the peculiar efficiency of the spoken word4 ,they clung to the sermon and scorned the weapon of the pamphleteers4 ,when comparing themselves with the ,correspondence ,colleges1 the ,universities resort to a similar argument4 ,one day1 however1 the ,correspondence ,colleges will realize the possibilities in wireless as an adjunct to their methods4 ,when with the assistance of its influential board of directors some national broadcasting company finally secures its charter1 the following situation will arise4 ,phenomenal salaries will attract the most distinguished exponents of the various arts and sciences to the central broadcasting stations4 ,district ,colleges staffed by automatic invigilators will call the roll of students at the various lectures4 ,these will be delivered by a loud speaker synchronized with a televisual cinema projecting the lecturer's blackboard and other illustrative material4 ,the economy effected by conducting classes of say half a million or equally easily ten million students will enable anyone to follow courses by all the most distinguished exponents of his subject4 ,european students in psychology1 for example1 will attend say at #i a4m4 for ,professor ,stout1 followed at #aj by ,dr ,sigmund ,freud1 and at #aa by ,professor ,g4 ,e4 ,moore4 ,nor need these distinguished men repeat their lectures until they have something new to say1 for dictaphones will be included among the listeners-in1 and another relay of undergraduates will acquire their wisdom from the broadcast-phonograph4 ,such a soulless business organization1 it will be objected1 could never replace our present establishments of culture4 ,but here1 again1 ,i feel the objection is of purely transitory force4 ,progressive differentiation which ,i have mentioned as an important aspect of evolution has produced the antithesis of commerce and cultured life4 ,differentiation1 however1 is to a great extent counterbalanced by processes of integration2 and such integration we can see in progress in the business world4 ,the commercial applications of art besides influencing the dividends of our railway companies must be exercising a cultural effect upon their boards of directors2 and culture filters through in many ways4 ,the justly renowned polish of the ,oxford graduate is finding a lucrative field of expression in modern salesmanship4 ,an up-to-date salesman now-a-days speaks considerably better ,english than his customer1 and the average waiter is better mannered than the proprietor of the htel4 ,it is inconceivable that the employer will continue to be quite uninfluenced by his cultured and refined subordinates4 ,perhaps this is the secret of the growth of those ,learned ,societies the purport of which we understand is to supply that liberal education demanded now by busy business men4 ,when the captains of industry have mastered this business of being cultured and have seen its possibilities in practical affairs their own peculiar talents will be applied in ever wider spheres2 of which education will probably be the first4 ,v ,dr ,schiller is of the opinion#h that the evolutionary impetus is spent1 and biologically at least we have seen the end of change4 ,i wonder4 ,and supposing he were right8 ,the process might begin again2 this time with the men of science at the helm4 #h ,tantalus4 ,the vast and powerful machinery developed to meet the needs of ,scientific ,management in industry1 government1 and education may make it possible to initiate and control the operation of the natural laws of change4 ,side by side with the direct control of character1 belief1 and action1 large-scale experiments in eugenics may proceed4 ,such experiments would not demand the clumsy expedient of the ,act of ,parliament4 ,the triple control will provide adequate means for eliminating the intractable factors in the situation4 ,perhaps the constitution of the ,united ,states of ,america provides the most promising machinery at present for large-scale sociological experiment4 ,these ,states1 moreover1 are fortunate in the character of their population4 ,but whether by education or by eugenic control man himself will change4 ,physically1 by a process of atrophy 7at which ,dr ,schiller will not1 ,i trust1 demur71 he may consist chiefly in a head from which will depend a mass of atrophied limbs4 ,he will presumably be more or less permanently mounted upon a compact automobile1 travelling by road or by air4 ,no doubt a submarine attachment will be available to facilitate his morning bath4#i ,but it is not with his appearance that we are here concerned4 ,what is the future of his mind8 #i ,but on all questions relating to our mechanical future ,i must refer the reader to ,professor ,a4 ,m4 ,low1 to whose works ,the ,future and ,wireless ,possibilities ,i myself am chiefly indebted in this respect4 ,there are interesting possibilities in the sphere of sense alone4 ,some of our present senses1 such as taste or smell1 may disappear altogether4 ,more and more we seem to depend upon purely visual cues4 ,on the other hand1 vision and hearing may be considerably augmented4 ,even though they be supplemented by microphones and microscopes1 we always strive to see and hear a little more than the best of instruments allows4 ,if1 after all1 the biological vitalists are right1 so long as we are interested in the constitution of matter there is a motive for further variation4 ,but1 as ,professor ,low points out1 our sthetic susceptibilities will have to be modified on the way4 ,when we first begin to perceive the fauna in the cheese and the microbes on our walls1 and when1 like the birds1 we go into the country to listen to the worms1 we shall have to revise our values4 ,our poets1 too1 will find new themes to sing4 ,memory1 even more than sense1 suggests many possibilities of development4 ,by hypnotism1 or by the natural working of the unconscious mind1 it is said that we can recall even the earliest events of life4 ,soon1 perhaps1 this power will be under conscious control1 and the autobiographers will have their millennium too4 ,but1 quite apart from this1 new methods of education and a little ,scientific ,management would enable us1 even now1 to do much more with our memories through the powers we already possess4 ,the developments of intellectual life are the most difficult to foresee4 ,but there are a few clues which enable us to guess at their possible nature4 ,what purely intellectual achievements have been made in the past seem to depend upon the development of language and the elaboration of symbolism convenient to thought4 ,philosophers and scientists have continually expressed dissatisfaction at the modes of expression at their disposal in a language primarily devised to express our emotional and practical demands4 ,scientists have invented a technical terminology in their nouns4 ,mathematicians go somewhat further1 and have invented more thorough-going systems of symbolism4 ,philosophers have always found it necessary to invent peculiar manners of speech1 and now are seriously beginning to follow the mathematicians4 ,it is possible that quite a new language will arise1 probably a variety of purely technical languagesuseful for different purposes of thought4 ,the process of differentiation manifests itself here as in other ways4 ,already people following different pursuits find it almost impossible to converse1 at least with anything approaching mutual understanding4 ,and this process of specialization which education and increasing knowledge forces upon us points to another obstacle in the way of the ,esperantists and other propagandists for a universal language4 ,by the time this language is adopted1 we shall have lost all common interests for the discussion of which it might have been employed4 ,perhaps our newer universities will inaugurate professorships in small-talk to keep alive an obsolescent art and to correct this serious menace of specialism4 ,more rapid than changes in the intellectual life will be those of character and of temperament4 ,there are two significant facts in the trend of man's emotional development1 one of special and the other of general interest4 ,firstly1 there is the curious decay of cruelty and the increased desire to avoid inflicting pain4 ,no one1 surely1 would deny an enormous change in this respect even in recent centuries4 ,and we are beginning to discover the lengths to which development may go4 ,even now it often causes a moral man to attribute base motives to himself in doing a kindly act to spare his friend the subtle pain or sense of obligation which occurs in the feeling of gratitude4 ,modest forms of generosity often have this motive in their modesty4 ,there is not much further to go before we reach the social life of ,henry ,james's novelswhere the principal characters have exquisite consciences1 where good souls are tortured by the regret that they had not expressed their reproaches a shade or so less directly so as more to convey the impression that they had really said nothing at all4 ,now-a-days you are afraid to forgive your enemies1 lest the pain of remorse you thrust upon them should exceed the discomfort inflicted by a direct retaliation4 ,the finer spirits of the age cannot live up to their own ideals because of the sense of inferiority it would impose upon their less advanced companions4 ,society in the thirtieth century will assuredly be even more refined4 ,the second significant fact of the moral history of our age to some extent ameliorates the prospect4 ,we are gradually growing out of our emotions4 ,we are acquiring self-consciousness and becoming habitually introspective1 and1 as the psychologists tell us1 you cannot observe an emotion without decreasing its intensity4 ,this partly explains what is curious in what is called 8modern love01 as practised and expounded by our younger novelists4 ,it is essentially introspective4 ,every schoolboy knows what is going to happen when he falls in love4 ,he knows about the illusions arising from emotion4 ,the undergraduate cannot make love extravagantly like the ,elizabethan poets1 or sentimentally like the ,victorians4 ,when he feels the passion rising1 he informs the provoking cause of it1 that he knows quite well that1 in spite of it1 she is a perfectly ordinary little person with nothing very much to recommend her4 ,they both agree that they are victims of an obsolescent mechanism designed for biological purposes1 a mechanism primarily intended for the brutes1 but annoyingly persistent in its control over civilized man4 ,they agree1 however1 to act the performance through1 because a rational way of making love is difficult to devise4 ,they agree to make senseless and meaningless remarks4 ,he is prepared to rave about her perfectly beautiful eyes whilst rationally convinced that they show a distinct suspicion of squint4 ,she in her turn will admire his manly form whilst fully conscious that he is rather undersized and remembering that he signally failed to get his ,blue4 ,the kind of objective attitude that we are being taught to adopt towards criminals1 which the psycho-analysts tell us to adopt towards the libertine1 sooner or later we shall have to adopt towards ourselves4 ,in any attempt to picture to ourselves the life of future man one of the chief of the things which we have to take into account is the entirely remodelled constitution of society4 ,there will be a small upper classvery small because1 as all the prophets agree1 the decrease of the birthrate in the upper strata will assume for sometime quite alarming proportions4 ,it will be regenerated for a while by the bolder1 more adventurous1 and more capable of the working-class1 who use their wits to escape from the situation into which they were born4 ,later1 of course1 this escape will be facilitated by reliable mental1 moral1 and vocational tests4 ,the working-classes proper will then consist only of those less capable of administrative1 organizing1 and managemental functions4 ,there will be relatively little unrest because the ruling classes will have learnt the wisdom of making the workers comfortable and happy2 and potential agitators by the system of vocational selection will find themselves more lucratively employed in voicing the opinions of the ruling classes at the broadcasting stations4 ,plato will have come into his own4 ,his criticism of democracy will have become accepted and the philosopher kingswith a differencewill have become established in the seats of power4 ,whilst the masses enjoy their innocent pleasures1 the ruling caste will live a life of its own4 ,judged by the present1 one might expect it to be a life of sport1 gambling1 and house-parties1 and there may be a transition-period of this kind4 ,in this no doubt some curious forms of sport will be devised4 ,if the theory is well founded which asserts that our present modes of sport are debased survivals of ancient occupations1 the craze of the fortieth century may be the fascinating game of mining4 ,it will be played in specially constructed coal-mines1 filled with ingenious traps1 blind alleys1 and water-hazards4 ,messrs ,pope and ,bradley in those days will circularize their clients by provocative letters pointing out that last year's mining suit is hopelessly out of date1 or that the time has now come for replenishing the aerial wardrobe for the forthcoming polar sports4 ,chemical warfare1 conducted with novel forms of laughing-gas1 will be a popular institution at ,christmas parties4 ,various considerations combine1 however1 to suggest that sport is but a transitory phenomenon in human life4 ,firstly1 the applications of scientific method to its pursuit is tending to remove its distinctive character4 ,and this tendency for economic reasons is likely to prove irresistible4 ,the old-fashioned sportsman will protest against the newer methods4 ,he may refuse to bring to the golf course wind gauge and slide rule2 he may refuse to attend to the lessons of motion study1 but in consequence of his stubbornness he will find himself too ridiculously outclassed to appear on the course at all4 ,his will be the fate of the older militarists who protest on similar grounds against chemical warfare4 ,to those who play the newer game1 sport will become a rigorous discipline and a scientific pursuit4 ,the general public1 moreover1 will increasingly enjoy its sport by proxy4 ,the televisual cinema1 which will then be stereoscopic1 will provide a substitute for the football match2 and the sporting spectacle will naturally form only an incident in the variety show4 ,again1 the sporting interest will be merged1 this time in the interests of general entertainment4 ,another important change already far advanced which will radically alter the character of sporting life is man's recent discovery of his mind4 ,the punch ball and gloves now hang limply on the wall whilst the one time early riser lies comfortably in bed cherishing the formula by which he grows sturdier and more ,spartan in every way4 ,instead of ,sandow we have ,pelman1 and this will spread to the schools4 ,enterprising teachers graphically plot the progress of their pupils upon the wall4 ,small boys will exhibit their ,i4,q4s and scorn a display of biceps4 ,if ,alec ,waugh continues to write about it1 the change may reach the ,public ,schools4 ,again1 it is the work of the printing press which is at last beginning to tell4 ,anagrams and intellectual puzzles of all kinds have existed for the few from ages immemorial1 but in the cross-word puzzle the principle is finding a wider appeal4 ,lastly1 the final blow to sport and to our ,british system of thought built up upon it will come from the industrial field4 ,industrial psychology will undermine it by eliminating its fundamental function4 ,the forms of sport with which we are most familiar arise chiefly as a reaction against sedentary and ill-planned occupations4 ,scientifically organized labour of the future will exhibit more variety and give fuller expression to the many-sidedness of man4 ,excessive specialization of the individual in his work has produced an artificial differentiation in the arrangement of his life1 of which the distinction of work and play is the most glaring example4 ,with the outgrowing of sport1 or1 more strictly1 with the blending of work and play man will apply himself to tasks commensurate with his powers4 ,dimly we begin to see what these tasks will be4 ,the task of government1 complex as it may be1 will be less difficult in many respects than it is to-day4 ,the danger of revolution should be only a remote contingency4 ,the stability of a society ultimately depends inversely upon the prevalence of nepotism4 ,a government of the efficient and the talented equipped with scientific knowledge would be impregnable4 ,it matters not that men are mostly irrational so long as the rational have the power to rule4 ,the irrationality of the rest is subject to uniform law1 which1 understood1 can be brought within control4 ,but the temptation to the ruler to hand on the reins of power to the inefficient with whom he has emotional ties of paternity or friendship is almost irresistible4 ,the difficulty1 however1 is not insuperable4 ,some form of 8,socialism01 which started all at equality and promoted to power according to ability1 gauged quasi-mechanically by mental and vocational tests1 would be a partial safeguard4 ,moreover1 in a compact ruling class a kind of family moral tradition might emerge4 ,this would be reinforced by the common-sense recognition of the dangers of promoting the inefficient on a large scale over the heads of the competent4 ,the obvious effect of such promotion is1 in the long run1 revolution2 and revolutions will probably be recurrent until the lesson has been learnt4 ,,vi ,and will these god-like beings with their infinite wealth and power1 in their perfect rationality1 be any happier or even morally better creatures than ourselves8 ,the formula for happiness is a fairly simple one4 ,its relative components form a vulgar fraction4 ,the denominator is constituted by that towards which we aspire2 the numerator is the number of our achievements4 ,there is a law by which these two vary almost in unison4 ,any augmentation of achievement sends up proportionally the number of our desires1 whilst great losses are followed by resignation4 ,it is just for those fleeting moments in which the balance is disturbed that we experience bliss or misery4 ,but the moments are very fleeting1 and the normal ratio is restored4 ,happiness is the carrot before the donkey's nose4 ,therein lies the moral of ,tantalus1 so grievously misinterpreted by ,dr ,schiller4 ,tantalus is the symbol of human progress4 ,the only danger is that under ,scientific ,management man may see through the trick4 ,and will he be better then than he is to-day8 ,that1 however1 is a question for the moralists of the future to decide4 99 99 99 99 99 ,transcriber's ,notes3 ,text in italics is enclosed by underscores 7italics74 ,punctuation and spelling inaccuracies were silently corrected4 ,archaic and variable spelling has been preserved4 ,variations in hyphenation and compound words have been preserved4