,,quo ,,vadimus8 ,,to-,,day ,,and ,,to-,,morrow ,,series ,d,,dalus1 or ,science and the ,future ,by ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,icarus1 or ,the ,future of ,science ,by the ,hon4 ,bertrand ,russell1 ,f4,r4,s4 ,,the ,,mongol ,,in ,,our ,,midst ,by ,f4 ,g4 ,crookshank1 ,m4,d4 ,fully ,illustrated ,,wireless ,,possibilities ,by ,prof4 ,a4 ,m4 ,low4 ,with four ,diagrams ,,narcissus1 or ,an ,anatomy of ,clothes ,by ,gerald ,heard4 ,illustrated ,,tantalus1 or ,the ,future of ,man ,by ,dr4 ,f4 ,c4 ,s4 ,schiller ,,the ,,passing ,,of ,,the ,,phantoms ,by ,prof4 ,c4 ,j4 ,patten1 ,m4,a41 ,m4,d41 ,sc4,d41 ,f4,r4,a4,i4 ,,callinicus1 ,a ,defence of ,chemical ,warfare ,by ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,quo ,,vadimus8 ,some ,glimpses of the ,future ,by ,e4 ,e4 ,fournier d',albe1 ,d4,sc41 ,f4,inst4,p4 ,,the ,,conquest ,,of ,,cancer ,by ,h4 ,w4 ,s4 ,wright1 ,m4,s41 ,f4,r4,c4,s4 ,,hypatia1 or ,woman and ,knowledge ,by ,dora ,russell 7,hon4 ,mrs4 ,bertrand ,russell7 ,,lysistrata1 or ,woman's ,future and ,future ,woman ,by ,a4 ,m4 ,ludovici ,,what ,i ,,believe ,by the ,hon4 ,bertrand ,russell1 ,f4,r4,s4 ,in ,preparation ,,perseus1 of ,dragons ,by ,h4 ,f4 ,scott ,stokes1 ,m4,a4 ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,sex ,by ,rebecca ,west ,,the ,,evocation ,,of ,,genius ,by ,alan ,porter ,,aesculapius1 or ,disease and ,the ,man ,by ,f4 ,g4 ,crookshank1 ,m4,d4 ,other ,volumes in ,preparation ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,,quo ,,vadimus8 ,,some ,,glimpses ,,of ,,the ,,future ,,by ,e4 ,e4 ,,fournier d',,albe ,d4,sc41 ,f4,inst4,p4 ,author of ,the ,life of ,sir ,william ,crookes1 ,the ,electron ,theory1 ,the ,moon-,element1 etc4 ,illustration ,,new ,,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,,fifth ,,avenue ,copyright #aibe ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,all ,rights ,reserved ,printed in the ,united ,states of ,america ,,quo ,,vadimus8 ,sitting at my desk by a cosy and up-to-date gas fire on a foggy day1 with tufts of mist steadily rolling up from the swollen waters of the wise old ,thames1 ,i try to realize that ,i am travelling through space at a rate of over a thousand miles a minute1 on board a minor planet in forced revolution round a vast white-hot globe nearly a hundred million miles away4 ,somebody has called astronomy the ,futile ,science1 and ,i am not at all sure that the epithet is wholly undeserved4 ,what do the stars matter to us8 ,there was a time when they were believed to have an influence on human affairs1 particularly those of kings and emperors4 ,to-day they are insignificant specks at an immense distance from us1 a distance so great that if they all were utterly annihilated neither we nor our remotest descendants should experience the smallest material effect4 ,the only assignable value of the stars to us1 beyond the general enlargement of our mental horizon1 is that they serve as an accurate measure of time4 ,but even that use is now almost superfluous1 since other absolute standards of time have become available1 such as the rates of disintegration of the radio-active elements4 ,how1 then1 can ,i account for the fact that there is a perpetual fascination about 8the heavens10 that books are constantly being written about them1 societies founded to study them1 and vast observatories built to watch them8 ,it cannot be simply the thirst for knowledge4 ,knowledge in the abstract has but few devotees4 ,for every one person who wants the ,truth at all costs there are a thousand who want an ,illusion at all costs1 even at the cost of mental balance4 ,let a man go about proclaiming truths ascertained by research and experiment1 and he will be considered a bore by all except a few specialists4 ,but let him boldly assert an absurdity or a paradox1 and he will obtain millions of adherents1 all animated by the ,will to ,believe4 ,and the more absurd his assertions1 the more self-assured and fanatical will be his followers4 ,no1 the popular interest in astronomy is not due to a thirst for accurate information4 ,it is due to a vestige of the old astrological belief in the significance of the constellations4 ,we still try to 8read our fate in the stars40 ,they are of interest to us for what they can tell us of the future1 proximate or remote4 ,we search the heavens for an answer to the question 8,whither80,quo vadimus8 ,in trying to predict the fate of the human race we must begin by gauging the chances of permanence possessed by our habitable globe4 ,its probable age has been put at a hundred million years4 ,predictions as to when it will cease to be habitable vary enormously1 but the latest figures go into many millions of years1 and the discovery of radio-activity has had the effect of greatly postponing the general freezing up of our planet4 ,our earthly habitation1 then1 seems assured for many millions of years4 ,but millions of years are1 after all1 but relative1 and they vanish before the vast age of the stellar universe#a and the enormous vistas of time yet to come4 #a ,dr4 ,jeans1 on very modern data1 puts this age at seven million million years4 ,how far can our gaze penetrate the fog which obscures our future8 ,can we build for eternity8 ,must we prepare for a catastrophe or an inevitable decay8 ,can we assure to our descendants an indefinitely prolonged future of perpetual progress and ever-increasing happiness8 ,the answer to these questions is ultimately based upon psychological factors4 ,human life requires certain physical conditions for its maintenance4 ,it also requires the passive assistance of many forms of animal life and plant life4 ,but ,man is1 without exception1 the most adaptable inhabitant of this globe1 and there is little fear of any physical or biological factors bringing about his extinction1 provided they change sufficiently gradually4 ,if life is adaptation to surroundings1 then ,man has more chance of surviving changing conditions than any other form of terrestrial life4 ,what other species can thrive equally in the ,arctic and under the ,equator8 ,the dog is man's only rival in that respect1 and is but second best4 ,we need1 therefore1 not be anxious lest a change in general physical environment bring our race to an end4 ,the end of the human race1 if ever it comes1 will be due to the human race itself4 ,if the race dies1 it will die by suicide4 ,and suicide is a matter of psychology4 ,let us examine the possibility of a voluntary euthanasia of the human race4 ,it seems the only sort of suicide that is at all conceivable4 ,can we imagine a state of things arising in which the leaders will say3 8,we have lived long enough4 ,our race has had a glorious history1 let it have a glorious end4 ,we cannot and will not bow to the new conditions imposed by ,nature4 ,we would rather die and end it all4 ,let us all perish together40 ,such an attitude would indeed be a new phenomenon4 ,people have died rather than surrender1 but it was with the thought of the approval of their fellows and the perpetual honour of their names4 ,in the case contemplated there would be no such inducement to heroism4 ,the surrender would be unchronicled and unsung4 ,a refusal to adapt itself to new conditions is not unknown among savage races1 nor among classes of civilized society4 ,tribes have perished off the face of the earth1 owing to a voluntary refusal or to inability to adapt themselves to new conditions of life4 ,but1 so far as we know1 this has always taken place in the presence of races of superior adaptability4 ,civilizations have perished4 ,we do not know1 of course1 how many civilizations have disappeared without leaving a trace4 ,but we do know that races have existed1 even in our own islands1 who were capable of transporting and building up great pieces of rock1 and of arranging them in an astronomically significant manner4 ,did these races perish under the attacks of an enemy8 ,or did they die off owing to the exhaustion of their own vitality8 ,we may suppose that it was the former rather than the latter alternative4 ,for in view of the great and increasing power of the human race we hardly need fear any enemies from without4 ,our destruction1 if ever it comes1 will come from within4 ,it will come if and when we develop a ,will to ,die4 ,such a ,will to ,die has been observed on a small scale in the wave of suicide sweeping over ,central ,europe after the ,great ,war4 ,but it was only a symptom of readjustment4 ,it was partial1 and practically confined to the class bound up with social and governmental stability1 and incapable of adaptation to radically changed conditions4 ,a more ominous phenomenon is the fall in the birth-rate of most of the insular tribes of the ,pacific1 which in some cases has led to their total extinction4 ,the causes of this fall have never been fully cleared up4 ,if it is due to the introduction of diseases by ,indo-,european germ carriers1 or the adoption of modern clothing1 or the destruction of native standards of morality by the introduction of ,asiatic religions1 there is no cause for alarm concerning the future of the human race as a whole4 ,but if the mere discouragement of the tribe when faced with new conditions can act directly upon the instinct of procreation1 and affect1 so to speak1 the lan vital of the germ-plasm1 then we are faced with the gravest danger to which the human race can be exposed4 ,for such an effect would be too insidious to be dealt with by public measures4 ,it would be a psychological disease of the most fatal and virulent kind4 ,it might affect the whole human race during some crisis in its fortunes1 and might bring about its destruction by the failure of the sex instinct4 ,although such a failure must always be a menacing possibility1 it is a remote one1 and at no time has it threatened the human race as a whole4 ,hunger and ,love have kept our race going up to now1 and1 barring unforeseen developments1 they will do so in scula sculorum4 ,but there are other dangers4 ,a new germ might be evolved which1 like the gonococcus1 might attack the germ plasm1 and produce general sterility4 ,this is one of the dangers that can be fought by hygienic and sanitary measures1 and the wiles and intricacies of bacteriological novelties may be safely left to the ever-increasing resources of bacteriology itself4 ,again1 there is the danger of new 8rays40 ,it is now a well-known fact that ,x-rays produce sterility when penetrating the human body in considerable strength or for any length of time4 ,the effect can be guarded against by an armour of lead screens4 ,x-rays are cut off by a thin sheet of lead4 ,there are other rays1 known as gamma-rays1 which can penetrate several inches of lead4 ,and higher up in the atmosphere1 about seven miles up1 another kind of radiation is found from which even a plate of lead five feet thick would be no protection4 ,if the sun1 entering an unknown part of space filled with denser matter1 were to develop a form of radiation leading to a considerable increase in the penetrating atmospheric rays1 the persistent action of these rays upon the human germ plasm might bring about the total destruction of the human race by reducing its birth-rate to zero4 ,the effect might not even be discovered until it was too late to remedy it4 ,and even if it were discovered in time1 the action of the rays upon all life on the earth's surface might have produced havoc enough to stop all food-supplies and produce universal starvation4 ,it is difficult to see how even the greatest resources of science could meet such an emergency as that4 ,but1 short of such a new danger1 there is little doubt that the resources of humanity will be able to meet all conceivable situations which may threaten it with destruction4 ,in order to ensure the indefinite continuance of the human race on earth1 it is necessary 7#a7 to maintain adequate food supplies and 7#b7 to conserve the procreative impulse4 ,the latter condition might1 indeed1 be put first on the list4 ,these are the conditions of bare existence4 ,progress and happiness are1 as they always have been1 secondary considerations4 ,many minds have regarded one or both of them as unessential4 ,thus1 it is not at all necessary to contemplate an increasing population of the globe4 ,the leadership of the human race can much more effectively be maintained by educating individuals than by increasing their numbers4 ,and as regards happiness1 that can safely be left to take care of itself4 ,all progress is progress towards greater happiness4 ,even mere existence can be a source of supreme happiness1 as when a great danger has been successfully averted4 99 99 99 99 99 ,once we are sure that the human race has a reasonable chance of indefinite survival1 we can proceed to contemplate the changes1 if any1 which are likely to take place as the centuries and millennia roll on4 ,anthropologists put the age of the human race roughly at half a million years4 ,in that comparatively long periodlong as compared with history1 but short as reckoned by geologyman has evolved from an ape-like1 tree-dwelling nut-eater into a plodding1 illiterate1 monosyllabic tiller of the soil1 7,i take the majority of mankind as representative of its state of progress rather than the lite74 ,the #ejj millennia of human evolution have had but little effect on the human form and the average human character4 ,the brain is somewhat larger generally and the mouth rather less protruding4 ,the mental equipment of the representative manthe man representing the majorityis in many ways inferior to that of the dog or the ant4 ,he is full of greeds and lusts and superstitions which place him on a level with the higher animal life1 or even below it4 ,it is in his possibilities rather than in his actual state of development that man is a superior being4 ,those possibilities have to some extent been realized in the educated few4 ,when we speak of civilization1 of modern life and scientific advance1 we fix our attention exclusively on the educated lite4 ,in asserting1 for instance1 that nowadays nobody doubts that the earth is round1 we are referring to a very small minority of the human race1 composed of perhaps half the adults of ,europe and ,america and ,australia1 with a small sprinkling of ,africans and ,asiatics1 in all perhaps #aj per cent4 of the total population4 ,if a vote were taken of every man1 woman1 and child in the world to decide whether the earth is flat or round1 there would be a majority of perhaps #i to #a in favour of a flat earth4 ,again1 8everybody0 is supposed to know that a whale is not a fish1 that it does not spawn or lay eggs1 but that it suckles its young like any other mammalian4 ,what proportion of the human race actually does know that simple fact8 ,how many human beings even know that the sun is larger than the moon8 ,a great many1 no doubt1 but how many out of the whole race8 ,scientific knowledge is the birthright of every human child4 ,but on that very account1 perhaps1 it is neither prized nor cherished4 ,in the markets where thoughts are bought and sold1 an ounce of illusion is worth a ton of fact4 ,the enormous disproportion between the amount of knowledge accumulated by the human intelligentsia and the general level of knowledge is productive of many evils and anomalies4 ,it necessarily breeds an attitude of contemptuous superiority towards the uninformed masses1 and supplies a temptation to profit by that superiority in order to dominate and oppress the majority4 ,many wars1 strikes1 revolutions1 and other social crises are the outcome of this anomalous condition4 ,on the other hand1 the very existence of empires requires the presence of a great substratum of the half-educated or uncultivated to follow the lead and obey the behests of the ,imperial few4 ,the ,british ,empire derives its strength from the numerical strength of its lite4 ,the ,russian ,empire and its direct heir1 the present ,oligarchy1 have had a small lite raised above an enormous mass of what is probably the least-educated population in the world1 outside ,africa4 ,the ,french ,african ,empire disguises the hegemony of ,paris under the liberal concession of a nominal ,french citizenship to its subject tribes4 ,the ,french lite is broader than the ,british1 as wealth in ,france is more evenly distributed4 ,in ,germany1 on the other hand1 and in certain smaller countries1 like ,denmark and ,finland1 it is education rather than wealth which is more or less impartially distributed4 ,this also tends to broaden the lite and make the nation 7as distinguished from the empire7 more intrinsically powerful4 ,we thus get an lite among nations as well as individuals4 ,this lite is1 however1 based upon force rather than intellectual leadership1 owing to the fact that a nation regarded as an organism is in a much more primitive stage of evolution than is a civilized individual4 ,nations have no morality1 no curbs upon their greed1 their hatred1 their jealousy and vindictiveness4 ,the rivalry among nations makes for progress1 but its most active manifestations may produce a serious set-back of long duration1 involving irreparable loss4 ,so long as peace and goodwill do not prevail among individual men it is absurd to expect them to prevail among a collection of beasts of prey such as we have in the nations of the world4 ,yet it is obviously desirable that the human population of the globe should advance as one man4 ,there is one thing1 and one thing only1 which can unite humanity into one closely-knit organism1 and that is an external enemy4 ,if ,mr4 ,h4 ,g4 ,wells's ,war of the ,worlds were to come true1 and an expeditionary force of ,martians were to land on the earth with a view to its annexation1 then the human race might instantly unite to repel the invader4 ,it would be an inspiring sight to see ,japanese and ,turks1 ,abyssinians and ,zulus1 ,eskimos and ,swiss1 ,brazilians and ,mexicans and ,doughboys1 ,tahitians and ,britishers and ,russians1 ,irish and ,egyptians1 ,persians and ,chinese1 all vying with each other in devotion and bravery1 fighting for their native planet against a ruthless and merciless invader4 ,without such a danger from without1 the close federation of the nations of the world is almost unthinkable4 ,take the case of ,ireland4 ,there we have two nationalities in one island1 as opposed to each other as any two nations in the same continent4 ,in the ,north1 a hardy1 stern1 rough and unbending type of ,scottish origin1 who despises the 8natives0 of ,ireland as an inferior race1 and makes good by converting a large slice of the 8distressful country0 into a garden of prosperity4 ,in the ,south1 a graceful and indolent peasant race1 with all the mingled diffidence and bravado of a conquered people largely pervaded by the blood of its conquerors1 and imbued with the idea of martyrdom for the twin ideas of religion and nationality 7in this case1 as it happens1 quite incompatible74 ,how can anyone expect peace under such conditions8 ,the situation is the very stuff that ruthless wars are made of4 ,the ,ulsterman will not 8go under0 a ,dublin parliament run by what he considers to be ignorant cornerboys4 ,the ,munsterman looks upon the 8blaack ,praatestant0 of the ,north as dirt1 which ,ireland must disgorge before she can rise to the height of her destiny4 ,england1 with her good-natured religious and ethnical tolerance1 is despised by both parties1 though the ,ulsterman clings passionately to the empire1 which he provides with the largest ships afloat4 ,that sort of thing makes international tribunals and ,leagues of ,nations look ridiculous4 ,here are two populations in a small island1 ready to rend each other limb from limb on the slightest excuse because the country is not large enough to hold both4 ,on the other hand1 it is an undoubted fact that international trade1 finance1 and intercourse has increased enormously with improved means of transport4 ,the ,postal ,union is a fine achievement towards the unification of the whole human family4 ,its successful working shows that enterprises covering the entire civilized population of the globe can now be undertaken and carried through4 ,it so happens that the two greatest ,states of the world1 the ,british ,empire and the ,united ,states of ,america1 are also the ,states whose home countries are freest from national intolerance and race prejudice1 both consisting of a mixture of many nationalities4 ,it is to them1 as well as ,france1 that we must look for the greatest advances towards the ideal of a world federation4 ,germany before the ,war cherished dreams of ,world ,supremacy1 but lacked the schooling which might have led to success4 ,the two great ,empires,british and ,japaneseand the two great ,republics,france and ,u4,s4,a4will1 if they can agree1 form a good nucleus for a federation of the world4 ,the world1 in its present state1 requires leadership1 and if the leaders are a representative and benevolent oligarchy1 it is about the best we can hope for4 99 99 99 99 99 ,given a reasonable degree of stability1 guaranteed by a combination of the best instruments of government yet devised1 we may expect a very rapid progress4 ,what direction will this progress take1 and what will be the fruits of it8 ,do not listen to those futile people who say there is no progress1 and that there is 8nothing new under the sun06 ,so far from maintaining that what is has been and ever shall be ,i should assert that nothing that is has ever been before1 that there are new things evolved every day1 and that every child born is a unique personality1 unprecedented in the annals of creation4 ,and not only are things new1 but the new things are1 on the general average1 a bit more advanced than the last4 ,advanced towards what8 ,towards perfection1 towards greater happiness1 a fuller and more enduring life4 ,who will dare deny that life in ,englandto take the nearest exampleis happier now than it was even fifty years ago8 ,some people will sigh for the good old times of the ,victorian reign1 when money and employment were plentiful1 when there was ample leisure for the rich1 with pleasant ways of spending it1 when masters were masters indeed and servants were loyal1 respectful1 and dutiful4 ,but in recent times1 apart from the tragedy of the ,great ,war1 there has been an immense improvement in the life of the average ,englishman and his dependents4 ,the general level of education has risen1 infectious diseases have been successfully fought1 schooling has become brighter and more effective1 clothing has become more rational4 ,there is more fresh air and less drudgery4 ,the workman draws a larger share of the product of his effort1 and often drives his motor car while his employer goes by train4 ,the workman draws his bloated wage under the protection of his trade union1 while the employer lies awake at night wondering how best to keep the works running and find new markets for old4 ,that is nearly all to the good1 since there are many more workmen than employers1 and the general level of contentment is raised4 ,even the aged1 instead of being thrown on the scrap heap1 are guarded from destitution by pensions honourably drawn from a wise government4 ,it will1 ,i hope1 be put to my credit that ,i have not carolled the blessings of the cinema theatre or even of wireless broadcasting4 ,the optimist who emphasizes these is usually met with the reply that these do more harm than good1 and spoil young people for ordinary life4 ,whatever may be said concerning the dull hotch-potch turned out 8in bulk0 by the ,american film industry1 nobody can deny that an element of romance has been brought into the lives of countless poor people by ,edison's and ,berliner's great invention4 ,as regards wireless broadcasting1 it is too early to speak of its permanent effects4 ,it has come upon us like an avalanche4 ,for the first time1 it has enlisted youth in the highest electrical problems4 ,it has paved the way for the general diffusion of scientific knowledge while ostensibly popularizing the art of music4 ,in any case1 it is a complete answer to ,ben ,akiba and his saying about there being nothing new4 ,mr4 ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane#b believes that the centre of scientific interest now lies in biology1 and that physiology will eventually invade and destroy mathematical physics4 ,it is quite possible that the advance of what physicists sometimes playfully call the 8inexact0 sciences may cast those of physics and chemistry entirely in the shade1 but although biology has made some difference to human life in the last generation1 its effects cannot remotely compare with those of physical and chemical discoveries4 ,the mere increase of speed in transport1 due to the internal-combustion engine1 has caused a speeding-up of the whole nervous system and a brightening of the intelligence of all but an insignificant fraction of the population4 ,when the choice lies between the ,quick and the ,dead1 even the most sluggish temperament will put on a spurt1 and this continued sprinting across the motor traffic has produced a more agile generation4 ,if such a profound difference can be made in twenty years1 what will be the effect of even #bjj years of continually accelerated progress8 #b ,ddalus1 pp4 #aj and #af4 ,the continual acceleration of the rate of progress must not be lost sight of in forecasting the future4 ,it happens to coincide with a similar increase in the consumption of accumulated fuels1 like coal and oil1 and might be expected to slow down when those supplies of preserved sunlight come to an end4 ,but by that time other accumulations will no doubt have been discovered and utilized4 ,unless the ,russian blight extends over ,europe and ,america1 we may confidently look forward to a long era of steadily accelerated progress4 ,what form that progress will take is notoriously difficult to forecast4 ,the main difficulty arises from the fact that the most promising discoveries sometimes turn out to be impracticable1 or at least of quite secondary importance4 ,nobody prophesied the great development of the motor car1 nor of that gigantic child of the old ,zoetrope or 8,wheel of ,life0 which we call the ,picture ,theatre4 ,a genius like ,h4 ,g4 ,wells could indeed write a marvellously accurate forecast of flying achievements1 but in one of his books he makes a great deal of the ,brennan mono-rail1 which1 after a sensational beginning1 failed to reach maturity1 probably owing to the temporary failure of that much-maligned but quite essential fertilizer of inventions1 capital4 ,other inventions1 such as the speaking film1 bear within themselves certain weaknesses which may prevent them from attaining great popularity4 ,but previous failures to peep into the future effectively shall not deter the author from another attempt to pierce the veil hiding our fate4 ,he will proceed by 8extrapolating0 the curves representing progress made hitherto1 but will always allow for unexpected new departures in what are already known to be possible directions4 99 99 99 99 99 ,transport and ,communications4,the most conspicuous changes in our mode of life have been brought about by improved means of transport4 ,railways and steamships have become essential to ,great ,britain1 largely owing to the fact that food-supplies have to be purchased in exchange for exported manufactures4 ,but even in non-industrial countries the railway has entered very largely into the life of the people4 ,it is part of the essential attribute of life which seeks diversity and a fuller activity of the senses4 ,life is1 in effect1 prolonged when it is made to contain more and more detail4 ,the social life of a person is roughly measured by the number of people with whom he converses in the course of a day4 ,improved transport means facilities for extending this number4 ,it also means an enlargement of a person's sphere of influence1 of his 8area of effective occupation40 ,in business1 it gives an opportunity of increasing turnover1 and thus reducing costs4 ,it also facilitates competition1 both in buying and selling1 and thus tends to enforce the law of supply and demand and other enactments of what used to be called the 8dismal science10 but now ranks as the most 8actual0 of all the sciences4 ,postal and telegraphic facilities have the same general effect of diversifying and extending life4 ,the telephone has produced an entirely new form of social intercourse1 and a new privileged class4 ,by acquiring a telephone number1 we obtain entrance into a hall where rapid and varied communication becomes an abundant source of activity1 information1 and amusement4 ,increased facilities of this kind also tend to cement a nation of one language into a closely organized whole1 so that its cohesion and its influence abroad are strengthened4 ,the 8temperature0 of the national life is raised1 and it increases in proportion4 ,an increased energy also accelerates the rate of progress1 so that it tends to spread like a fire4 ,what this acceleration will mean we can as yet only dimly surmise4 ,a time will come1 no doubt1 when we may crowd into an hour a variety of experiences which our ancestors would have extended over a lifetime4 ,we need not necessarily do so1 but the mere fact that it is possible will add a zest and a richness to life such as we1 with all our advantages1 can as yet hardly conceive4 ,but the general effect will be to reduce more and more the limitations now imposed upon us by space4 ,it will no doubt be eventually possible to get into communication with anybody on earth at a moment's notice1 provided that person is willing4 ,privacy4,the last proviso is important4 ,civilization not only makes us more accessible to those we appreciate1 but also makes us less accessible to those of whom we disapprove4 ,an increase in our area of choice would be of little value if everybody else could choose to intrude upon us at any time or place4 ,a limitation of social intercourse to a chosen few1 or its total cessation for the time required for rest and recuperation in a strenuous life is one of the greatest boons one can desire4 ,the rank and file is more gregarious than the lite and1 as one of the ideals of progress is to raise the masses towards the level occupied by the lite1 the extension of facilities for seclusion is of the essence of progress4 ,hence commons and open spaces are provided in and around well-planned cities4 ,houses are provided with sound-proof walls1 and gardens are protected as much as possible from 8overlooking40 ,a very modern problem of the same kind is the protection of wireless listeners from oscillations produced in neighbouring receiving sets4 ,clothing4,the present generation of civilized humanity justly prides itself on its sensible style of clothing4 ,although masculine clothing contains a number of 8vestigial0 elements which are absurd survivals of former necessities1 the practice1 observed more especially in ,great ,britain1 of wearing a variety of apparel suited to special occasions and occupations adds a certain elasticity to fashions which otherwise are almost comically rigid4 ,if a man wore a wreath of flowers round his head instead of a hat he would not walk fifty yards in any ,london street without being arrested for 8insulting behaviour0 or 8conduct likely to cause a breach of the peace40 ,yet a woman could do so with impunity if she did it with the necessary air of assurance4 ,the future of clothing is largely affected by social problems4 ,masculine clothing ceased to be demonstrative in ,europe shortly after the ,french ,revolution4 ,while aristocracy flourished1 it paraded itself aggressively in velvet and ruffles and powdered wigs4 ,in modern times it is bad form to strut and swagger1 except on very special occasions4 ,good clothing is not aggressively ornate or expensive4 ,its quality is a matter of lines and cut and finish4 ,its preciousness is disguised from the uninitiated4 ,it is like the sober and almost dingy town houses of the nobility1 whose splendour is only shown to favoured friends and trusted servants4 ,in #agid the dress of the 8aristo0 was a passport to the guillotine4 ,in later and wiser days it is a disguise to deceive the tax-collector and the demagogue1 and to lull their prying rapacity into inactivity4 ,feminine attire follows the same principles1 modified by the essential differences between the sexes4 ,the ideal of a well-dressed woman varies widely with her surroundings4 ,in bad weather out of doors1 or in an unsympathetic crowd1 her garments will be a defensive armour designed to reveal as little of her personality as is compatible with her purpose4 ,under more favourable conditions1 they will become a setting made as suitable as possible to the peculiar qualities and attractions of the jewel they are supposed to contain4 ,not every woman can1 under present conditions1 be beautiful1 but she can suggest beauty at every turn1 remind us of beautiful things1 and give us that feeling of holy calm which we experience in the presence of beauty1 if she will but dress appropriately to the occasion and to her own personality4 ,these considerations must affect our view of the appropriate styles of ,a4,d4 #bjbe4 ,dress appropriate to the occasion6 ,dress is1 after all1 a sort of extension of the physical personality4 ,the body of a naked child at play is the most perfect thing in beauty that can be seen4 ,all its muscles adapt themselves instantly to its activities4 ,everything is appropriate and harmonious4 ,a thin and clinging covering would detract but little from its grace of movement and expression1 and might1 indeed1 add something of force and swiftness that cannot be perceived in the mere play of muscles4 ,thus the plumes of a ,red ,indian add to the sense of speed and purpose conveyed by his movements4 ,i do not agree with ,mr4 ,h4 ,g4 ,wells that the final ideal of clothing is its total abolition4 ,clothing has the effect of enlarging man's sphere of activity until it covers the entire globe from the poles to the equator4 ,another advantage is that it emphasizes mental qualities rather than physical qualities4 ,if mere physical beauty were the one essential to human well-being1 mankind would have long ago insisted on its being freely displayedand judgedwithout the disguise of clothing4 ,instead1 a common agreement among civilized peoples insists that on everyday occasions little but the face is to be visible1 because its features and expression give a clue to the mentality behind them4 ,on special occasions1 such as balls and dinner parties1 more may be revealed by the gentler sex1 but even then the area revealed must be confined to what is least likely to show defects and is of least physiological interest and importance1 so that the attention may still be directed towards mental rather than emotional or physical qualities4 ,the evolution of clothing will1 therefore1 be in the direction of adaptability to climate and occupation4 ,new fabrics will no doubt be invented1 combining the warmth of fur with the softness and flexibility of silk and the strength of linen4 ,dress will be light1 so that half a dozen changes of costume can be carried in a handbag1 and will be so designed that each change will involve no more inconvenience than does the removal of a raincoat4 ,and so we shall eventually combine the ,greek ideal of expressive drapery with the exacting conditions of a strenuous modern life4 ,housing4,man is an animal with a cubical shell4 ,if the earth were reduced to the size of a football and its surface were examined with a powerful microscope1 we should see it studded with incrustations like dried salt1 especially about the river mouths4 ,these incrustations would be the cities1 consisting of thousands of rectangular or cube-shaped blocks4 ,with a greater magnification we might see minute specks swarming about these shell-like houses1 elongated specks with their longer axis vertical1 and with a marked tendency to enter the houses at nightfall and emerge again after daybreak4 ,if a giant had been watching the development of these incrustations for several thousand years1 he would have seen them spreading from the ,mediterranean and some parts of ,asia till they studded the ,atlantic regions4 ,thence1 after a time1 they would spread to the other side of the ,atlantic1 and become particularly numerous along its western shores4 ,watching them again for several thousand years1 he might see these incrustations gradually dissolved1 and the diseasehe would probably call it a diseasebecome 8generalized0 all over the planet1 the local incrustations giving way before a universal but only slightly crusted condition of the earth's entire land surface4 ,this is the most probable solution of the general housing problem4 ,ordinary and wireless telephony1 soon to be supplemented by 8television10 will gradually reduce the isolation brought about by mere space1 while underground and overground transport of goods will render the distribution of supplies less and less laborious4 ,houses will1 therefore1 be built more widely apart than they are in cities1 and each will have its own private grounds4 ,the structures will be of a material impervious to heat and cold1 but transparent or translucent to light1 though there will be means of darkening the whole house if desired4 ,artificial lighting will not be by lamps1 but by a close imitation of diffused daylight1 which is coolest and most restful to the eyes4 ,there will be no domestic servants4 ,all the 8work0 of the house will be done by machinery requiring but the turning of a switch and the aiming of implements resembling magic wands4 ,cooking will be a pleasant domestic art1 most of the preparations being made by the purveyors of food stuffs4 ,as it is unlikely that the anatomical structure and the physiological functioning of the human frame will be materially changed for thousands of years to come1 food will not be very different from what it is now1 but there will be a nicer discrimination of what foods1 and what quantity of them1 are best calculated to maintain perfect health4 ,children4,most prophets concerning the future of the human race postulate many and radical changes in the birth and rearing of children4 ,some say that advancing civilization will make the present process impossible on account of the steadily increasing size of the human skull1 which will eventually make normal birth impossible4 ,professor ,haldane forecasts 8ectogenesis0 or the artificial ripening of the embryo outside the human body4 ,whatever may happen to the physical act of birthit will no doubt be alleviated in many waysone hopes that the tender joys of watching over the development of a child's body and mind will not be taken away from us4 ,much more enlightened care will1 no doubt1 be bestowed upon the welfare of the infant than is done at present4 ,how many crimes are unwittingly committed against a child's mentality by ignorant parents and nurses6 ,lies and prevarications and evasions are always reprehensible1 but with children they are of fatal and life-long effect4 ,we owe the truth to a child more than to any adult4 ,our promises to a child should be as binding as an oath4 ,tell them fairy tales by all means1 but tell them with a voice and expression which inevitably stamps them as such1 and makes belief optional4 ,i cannot see any effective substitute for family life so long as there are children to bring up4 ,children feed on love as they do on food and fresh air1 and no vicarious love can take the place of the natural affection between children and their parents4 ,the institution of marriage may undergo many and far-reaching changes#c1 but nothing is likely to change the paramount necessity of parental care of1 and responsibility for1 children4 ,children are rooted in their parents4 ,they are1 in a sense1 survivals of their parents' personality1 and constitute their chance of physical immortality4 ,it is1 therefore1 absurd to suppose that the human race will at any time in its history consent to the 8nationalization0 of its children4 ,on the other hand1 the supervision of ill-disposed or incompetent parents by the ,state will1 no doubt1 become more and more strict4 #c ,its early history shows it to be a contrivance for the safe-guarding of infants in their earliest years by allocating a large proportion of responsibility to the father4 ,among ,semitic and other ,asiatic tribes1 this allocation of responsibility was fortified by the somewhat crude precaution of secluding women4 ,marriage as a means of allocating responsibility will become superfluous as soon as parentage can be infallibly traced with the aid of the microscope1 as some biologists confidently foretell4 ,the chief raison d'etre of marriage will then be gone1 but it will no doubt continue for a considerable time as a picturesque survival of an ancient custom4 ,education4,in spite of the prodigious advance in educational methods in the last two generations1 education is still in a state of primitive barbarity4 ,we may1 therefore1 expect some very profound changes in the centuries to come4 ,there is still too much of the methods of the pump about our education4 ,the idea seems to be that the teacher draws from the well of knowledge and administers copious draughts to his pupils1 and when they have swallowed these they are educated6 ,there is no better illustration of this curious view than the modern method of imparting 8higher0 education4 ,the ,university lecture is1 of all methods of imparting knowledge1 about the least effective4 ,the student sits in a stiff attitude and maintains a pose of strained attention4 ,he endeavours to keep his mind concentrated on the words and meaning of the professor4 ,every now and then he succeeds1 but then his thoughts persist in following their own train of associations and the thread is broken4 ,he jots down disconnected notes1 hoping to piece them together afterwards4 ,this piecing together is often the only process which really advances his knowledge4 ,it brings his own will-power and faculties into action4 ,the lecture only requires will-power for concentration on somebody else's thought1 and this effort is negative and sterile4 ,if lectures must be1 then they should be interrupted after every ten minutes or so4 ,the lecturer should then sit down and invite and encourage his students to ask pertinent questions or advance sound criticism4 ,in a class-room it is easier to keep the interest of the pupils alive4 ,every effort should be made to let the information come from the pupils rather than the teacher4 ,in teaching history1 for instance1 ,i should not have set lessons at all1 but ask the pupils to collect facts within a certain period1 and reward them in accordance with their success in presenting the facts and linking them up with others4 ,the education of the future will be like the medicine of the future4 ,both will aim at eliciting and enlisting the powers of the pupil 7or patient7 rather than dosing them4 ,for the real learning and the real cure must come from them4 ,every normal child is anxious to learn1 and can be easily brought to feel and appreciate the intellectual joy of comprehension4 ,but in most children this joy is marred in early infancy by insufficient attention to their struggles to understand the great world about them4 ,it is the years of infancythe pre-school yearswhich are most important in forming habits of thought4 ,the closest watch should be kept for early efforts at trains of reasoning4 ,these efforts begin at the age of three or thereabouts4 ,they are often absurd and ludicrous1 but they should be treated with an indulgent and helpful respect1 and wrong conclusions should be modified1 not by contradiction1 but by conviction of the contrary by example4 ,if that is done1 the child will learn to trust his own powers of reasoning4 ,if it is neglected1 the child's mind will become shallow and unenterprising4 ,no child that can talk is too young to be asked for his opinion4 ,he will enjoy stating it1 and will1 as a rule1 receive protests or contrary opinions with interest and amusement4 ,all this may be a 8counsel of perfection0 to parents who are too busy to look after their infants themselves and are content to entrust their tender minds to more or less incompetent nurses4 ,but the future will realize more and more the great importance of the growing minds of infants4 ,in the ,united ,states this is to a large extent the case already1 and1 as a consequence1 their infants are the brightest and most delightful creatures imaginable4 ,labour4,in one of his earliest works1 8,the ,time ,machine10 ,mr4 ,h4 ,g4 ,wells forecasts a development of the labour situation very different from that of the ordinary socialist ,utopia4 ,he figures an arrangement by which all labour is done underground1 and is done by creatures 7one can hardly call them 8people07 whose bodies and minds are thoroughly adapted to their task4 ,the picture seems to be a skit on the ,victorian idea of the 8family0 upstairs and the servants in the basement1 but a grim and novel touch is added by the information that the workers actually live on those that dwell in the light1 coming up at night to take them away in their sleep4 ,such a solution1 though it may draw some justification from the bee-hive or the ant-heap1 is not at all likely to be adopted by the human race of the future4 ,the essential service of ,christianity1 the kernel which will remain after the mythological and dogmatic accretions have been shed1 is to provide mankind with an imagination capable of conceiving and realizing the sufferings of other people and creatures1 and the will to remedy or obviate them as far as possible4 ,through centuries of abuse1 neglect and misinterpretation that gift has gradually worked into the mass of civilized humanity4 ,the humanitarian ideal is explicit and articulate in ,france1 while in ,england it is disguised under such expressions as 8decency0 and 8playing the game10 or 8live and let live40 ,that it has not yet remade the world is due mainly to two causes3 the arrogance of those to whom money or social position gives an advantage over smaller people1 and the hatred and mistrust engendered by this arrogance among the masses4 ,a workman in a physically fit condition does not object to working4 ,he sometimes feels the drudgery1 boredom1 or discomfort of it1 but if he is a skilled craftsman1 his pride in his work gives him an interest and satisfaction which helps him over many hours of toil4 ,what he does object to is to be driven and bullied by an unsympathetic and perhaps unjust overseer1 who turns out the master on every occasion and lets him feel his power4 ,he wants and sometimes admires a leader1 but he does not want a slave-driver4 ,in war1 there is the same difference between the 8come on0 officer and the 8go-on0 officer1 and the same effect on discipline4 ,i believe that the co-operation of larger organized masses of men will not only be required in the future as in the past1 but that its scale will eventually exceed anything yet seen in our history4 ,the key to the smooth working of such organizations is the spirit in which the enterprise is undertaken4 ,let us give two examples1 one from the present day and one from1 say1 the year #b1jjj4 7#a7 ,a4,d4 #aibe3 7a7 ,navvies required4 ,apply ,eastern ,counties ,railway ,co4's ,depot4444 7b7 ,eastern ,counties ,railway ,co41 ,ltd4 ,the #bej1jjj #e ,cumulative ,participating ,preference ,shares are now offered for public subscription1 payable as follows4444 7#b7 ,a4,d4 #bjjj3 ,norfolk ,water ,supply ,undertaking4 ,a public meeting will be held on 444 at the ,norwich ,auditorium1 to announce and explain the purpose and plan of this ,undertaking4 ,workers and ,contributors will be enlisted on terms to be announced at this meeting4 ,qualification papers may be sent to the undersigned4444 ,it is obvious that the 8contributor0 who places his savings at the disposal of the ,undertaking must not only not lose them thereby1 but must be compensated according to the risk he runs4 ,in effect1 he provides the manual worker with the food he requires to exert his strength1 and he does so without any immediate benefit to himself4 ,if1 after the ,undertaking had got to work1 his 8contribution0 were simply refunded1 he would receive no reward for his public service1 a service which implied a reduction in his own resources4 ,this would be unjust and would make his treatment worse than that of the wage-earner4 ,to this simple plea a ,communist would rejoin that nobody should be allowed to have savings or accumulated resources or private property of any kind4 ,the absurdity of this contention is very easily demonstrated1 but let us add a few hard cases to the usual arguments3 7#a7 ,a tribe of shepherds requires water4 ,there is one man who knows the location of a well4 ,his knowledge is his private property1 which he offers to sell for a number of cows4 ,what should be done1 if the man is 7a7 accessible and undefended2 7b7 inaccessible4 7#b7 ,a girl has a beautiful head of hair1 which could be sold abroad for a considerable sum4 ,whose property is it8 7#c7 ,in a small and isolated town1 #bj per cent4 of the inhabitants have good sets of false teeth4 ,another #bj per cent4 require false teeth1 but have no means of getting them4 ,what will be the action taken by the ,communist municipality8 99 99 99 99 99 ,the workman going to his work has quite a respectable capital to accompany him on his way4 ,he has clothes to keep him warm1 boots to save his feet from wearing out1 a set of tools1 perhaps1 and accumulated stores of food in every muscle of his body4 ,even if his stomach is empty1 he is still capable of work1 although it will probably be of inferior quality4 ,there was a craze towards the end of last century for living without food1 the idea being that the body was not nourished by food but by 8vibrations0 of some mysterious kind4 ,the craze1 for obvious reasons1 did not last long1 but some prodigies of fasting were performed while it lasted1 and the leaders of the movement prided themselves on doing their daily work and business as usual4 ,the truth was that1 like the badger1 they were living on their own fat and consuming their own tissues4 ,in the end they were thinner and sadder1 but little the worse otherwise4 ,everybody in a physically fit condition is necessarily a capitalist4 ,that arch-capitalist among the animals1 the squirrel1 jumps on the shoulders of the amiable ,communists strolling in ,regent's ,park and then goes to 8rattle in his hoard of acorns40 ,there will be no discouragement of the acquisition of private property in the centuries to come1 but care will be taken that the happiness accruing to the owner is not set off by misery inflicted on others4 ,misery due to mere envy or jealousy will not be considered1 but1 as a matter of fact1 there is much less of that than there is commonly supposed4 ,the spectators of the ,lord ,mayor's ,show do not envy the ,lord ,mayor his pomp and magnificence1 but they are there to delight their eyes with an unusual display4 ,the crowds collecting at the church door to see the blushing bride do not come to turn green with envy1 but to feast their eyes on something exquisite and heartening to behold4 ,and the work of the future1 the labour of thousands on a great enterprise1 will be accomplished in the spirit of adventure and comradeship1 like an ,arctic expedition1 let us say1 and the distribution of rewards will be conducted in the same spirit as the prize-giving at a sports meeting4 ,the spirit of adventure is a most valuable incentive to work1 an incentive that is much neglected at present4 ,it is part of the workman's grievance against capital that the capitalist has the adventurous part of the undertaking4 ,the need for adventure in everyday life is proved by the enormous prevalence of betting on horses1 which is about the most stupid way of adventuring money that one can conceive4 ,the prodigies performed under some piece-work agreements show that it is not the quantity of work that is felt as a burden1 but the consciousness of being driven by a will other than one's own4 ,many schemes of profit-sharing also introduce an element of chance which is most welcome to the worker1 though logically it should be under a proviso of loss-sharing in the same proportion4 ,a profit-and-loss-sharing understanding between employers and workers would make every worker a capitalist4 ,indeed1 as soon as the workers 7or the ,state1 it matters not which7 are sufficiently organized to guard workers from undeserved destitution1 it may be quite feasible to organize public undertakings without wages of any kind4 ,each worker would contribute 8capital0 in the form of a certain amount of work4 ,in case of a total loss on the undertaking1 he would receive no reward or wages whatever1 any more than the capitalist who engages in a profitless scheme4 ,if the undertaking succeeded1 he would have a permanent interest in the revenue from it1 in proportion to the work contributed4 ,since it is easier to assess the value of manual piece-work than mental work1 it might well happen that1 though no wages were paid1 salaries would be paid to organizers1 architects1 overseers1 and the like1 who would thus be the only 8proletarians0 in the concern6 ,government48,the first duty of a ,government is to govern40 ,this platitude sounds as if there were some hidden pearl of meaning behind it4 ,but on etymological analysis we find that the duty of ,government is to work the rudder of the ship of ,state4 ,it is to give a general direction to the activities of its citizens4 ,the same or a similar word is used in all countries based upon ,roman law and citizenship4 ,the ,german equivalent1 ,regierung1 is different4 ,it means reigning or doing the business of royalty1 but as the origin of the word 8,rex0 is the same as that of the main syllable of the words 8,rector0 and 8,director10 it comes to the same thing1 a 8directing0 action4 ,will this directing or controlling action ever become superfluous8 ,its chief function is at present to determine the policy of a large aggregate of human beings4 ,in democratic countries this determination is settled by a majority vote1 from which there is no legal appeal1 though passive resistance or the threat of rebellion are weapons which a minority can sometimes use with effect4 ,a majority vote would be practically certain to be wrong on most questions of the day1 but fortunately such a vote has no effect unless it is put into action by a body of expert politicians comprising the ,ministry1 and these again are largely guided by experts in the particular matter with which the vote in question is concerned4 ,laws are not made by ,parliament4 ,they are born in ,government offices under expert advice4 ,the ,cabinet1 on the advice of its experts1 decides to bring in a ,bill which is likely to be of some benefit1 will probably be passed by ,parliament1 and will encounter no serious resistance in the country4 ,our ,government is thus really a ,government by ,experts1 but is cleverly disguised in such a manner as to appear 8broadbased upon the ,people's ,will40 ,a similar camouflage might very properly be adopted in the management of factories and industrial enterprises4 ,but the ,state is older than the ,factory1 and has learnt more wisdom4 ,the other primary function of government is the maintenance of public orderin other words1 the enforcement of the laws it has enacted4 ,among the ,medes and ,persians1 whose laws were never altered1 this was the main function of government4 ,and in a non-progressive world the task of keeping everyone 8in his place0 and preventing him from encroaching on his neighbours might well fill the whole sphere of government4 ,the ,anarchist ideal of the abolition of all government is only possible if we can abolish the natural tendency of all living things to expand and extend their sphere of action2 or if we can endow its neighbours with sufficient reserves of energy to be able to oppose any undue expansion4 ,if a motorist knocks down a pedestrian1 we discourage that undue extension of his sphere by a fine or imprisonment4 ,if we could endow every pedestrian with the physical power of stopping a car1 say1 by raising his hand2 or if1 alternatively1 we could make him invulnerable1 indestructible1 and untraversable1 there would be no need for prosecutions1 and ,anarchism would1 in that particular case1 become a possible system4 ,the idea of a government being something superior to ordinary humanity is somewhat ludicrous4 ,in actual practice1 government is the servant of the public1 and not its master4 ,there are countless cases of the process of law being used for private ends4 ,the rule of conduct among some powerful individuals and corporations is to 8go on until you are stopped10 in other words1 to do what you like until somebody objects1 or until you are stopped by the law4 ,the law is thus used as a sort of indicator or 8automatic cut-out0 much as an electrical engineer would use a safety-fuse4 ,the main difference is that the 8blowing0 of some particular fuses leads to explosions and permanent damage1 as when a crime is committed4 ,the business of government is hard and sometimes very exacting work4 ,one can imagine some misdemeanant of the future being condemned to carry on the government1 or some important function of it1 for so many months1 as the most exacting form of hard labour4 ,this elementary fact has of late been recognized by most modern parliaments in the payment of their members4 ,government should be recognized as a profession and rewarded as such4 ,the late ,mr4 ,w4 ,t4 ,stead's alternative to ,democracy was an 8,autocracy tempered by ,assassination40 ,there is another alternative1 viz41 ,bureaucracy tempered by ,emigration4 ,it is the system practised in such institutions as ,proprietary clubs4 ,members are not worried to elect committees and honorary officers4 ,if they are satisfied with the management they remain in the club4 ,if they are not1 they join some other club4 ,the same process on a larger scale led to the foundation of the ,american colonies and the ,united ,states4 ,it is largely at work at the present day1 but is complicated by all sorts of restrictions and difficulties1 the divergence of languages being one of the most serious obstacles4 ,as intercommunication increases1 the natural tendency to go where one can be happiestubi bene1 ibi patriawill no doubt come increasingly into action1 and will be a wholesome check upon the extravagances of cranky legislatures4 ,but ,i doubt whether there is any tendency at all of governments to become less effective4 ,almost every advance of science and invention makes the maintenance of public order and security easier4 ,the tracing of criminals by wireless telegraphy and broadcasting is a striking illustration of the aid science can give to the police4 ,almost everywhere science and invention are on the side of the established order4 ,although every researcher and inventor is1 in a sense1 a revolutionary1 in that his work is likely to produce immense changes in human activity1 his general outlook tends towards aristocracy1 since he is imbued with the sense of the immense differences in the personal equipment of individuals1 which no equalitarian sentimentality will ever wipe out4 ,the ,farther ,outlook4,so far1 we have looked but little ahead1 a century at most4 ,the prophet's task becomes more arduous as the time is extended4 ,historical guidance fails us4 ,familiar landmarks get blurred and disappear4 ,we are in danger of getting lost in a bog of unreal speculation4 ,yet the task has often been essayed1 and it is necessary and desirable that it be essayed now and again4 ,let me make my own humble attempt1 in the light of what knowledge ,i have acquired and what great thoughts ,i have encountered in many lands and languages1 and in discussions with many thinkers4 ,we must extend our time scale from centuries to millennia1 and from millennia to geological eras4 ,above all1 we must take into account not only the rapid advance of science and invention1 but the constant acceleration of that advance4 ,the consequence of that constant acceleration is that new developments and achievements succeed each other with bewildering rapidity4 ,hardly have we got accustomed to the idea of telegraphy without wires when radio-telephony becomes an accomplished fact1 and within a few years there is a rich crop of listeners with their wireless receiving sets counting by the million4 ,an entirely new form of publicity comes into being1 and a speaker on ,savoy ,hill is able to speak to an audience of millions and sway them by his voice more effectively than he can do by cold print in the newspapers4 ,and this is only a beginning4 ,communication will become closer and more general4 ,already the earth is a network of lines and cables1 linking continent to continent4 ,soon a speaker will have the earth for his sounding board and his hall of audience1 and the privilege of addressing the human race will be prized above a coronation4 ,human sight and hearing will extend its range enormously1 not only in space1 but in time also4 ,for the cinema film and improvements in the recording of sound will make it possible to make minute and comprehensive records of past sights and sounds for future reproduction1 so that nothing of any value may be lost4 ,other progress will go hand in hand with the rapid development of 8signalling0 communications1 such as telegraphs and the like4 ,the transport of goods and passengers will rapidly gain in speed1 comfort1 and safety1 until the whole earth becomes accessible to all4 ,it will not only become accessible1 but also habitable4 ,the tropics1 the original cradle of the human race1 will once more be reclaimed from our most formidable enemies of the insect-world and the ever-present bacterium4 ,the higher organism will assert its much-contested supremacy over those minute organisms which owe their influence to mere numerical superiority4 ,our descendants will pay an afternoon's visit to ,timbuctoo or ,mount ,ararat1 much as we should visit the ,british ,museum or the ,lake ,district4 ,everybody will be a globe-trotter1 but the 8globe0 will not be confined to the ordinary tourist resorts4 ,it will include every part of the world1 even the ,poles4 ,and wherever they go they will find friendly voices1 long familiar in the home through the service of radio-telephony4 ,there will1 of course1 be an international auxiliary language1 understood everywhere1 a language artificial in its structureevery literary language is largely artificialbut utilizing those roots which have already become part and parcel of all cultured languages4 ,this will not mean the displacement or loss of native languages which have proved their title to survival by their literature4 ,war will not cease for perhaps a century or more4 ,but it will finally cease when the truth has sunk in that war is a loss to every belligerent and to the whole world4 ,human rivalry and competition will take other forms4 ,there are many ways of killing men1 women and children1 besides suffocating them with chlorine4 ,if a tribe is to be exterminated1 nobody will be killed1 but all its members will be painlessly sterilized by ,x-rays or some such modern means1 so that the next generation will know them no more4 ,it will be more humane than the ,biblical expedient of 8dashing their children against a stone40 ,the mass of interconnections between human nations and individuals will be like a closely-woven fabric4 ,even now1 the digging up of a city road reveals a tangled network of water pipes1 electric mains1 gas pipes1 and drain pipes suggestive of the dissection of an animal body4 ,it is but a faint foreshadowing of what is to come4 ,the substratum of life will become more and more complete as conscious life becomes simpler4 ,nobody is conscious of the appalling complexity of his anatomical organization when using his body as a well-poised instrument of thought and intercourse4 8,the simple life0 is not the old-fashioned country life of ,england or the primitive life of savage humanity4 ,real simplicity is constituted by the life in which most things are done by pressing a button1 and a man can travel across a continent in such comfort that on arrival at his destination all memories of his journey are dimmed or lost1 and he can hardly recall having travelled at all4 ,we may1 therefore1 expect that1 as facilities for intercourse become more detailed and widespread1 the effect will be1 not to increase the tax on our nerve force until it becomes unbearable1 but to increase our area of selection4 ,there will thus be more consistency in our actual interests and activities and more real harmony and leisure4 ,the unification of the planet which is being accomplished before our eyes will have some astounding consequences4 ,mankind will assume a definite mastery of his home in the solar system4 ,attila could boast that when he plunged his spear into the ground1 the whole earth trembled4 ,the earth trembles even now to the electric signals of our powerful wireless stations4 ,what will it be in a hundred or a thousand years8 ,in a hundred years the unification of the human race will be complete4 ,the earth and the fulness thereof will be under the full mastery of man4 ,all animal1 vegetable and bacterial life will be kept within strict bounds in the interests of humanity4 ,the earth will be under one government1 and one language will be written and understood1 or even spoken1 all over the globe4 ,there will still be different races and perhaps allied nations1 but travel and commerce will be free and unfettered1 and calamities will be alleviated and dangers met by the united forces of all mankind4 ,and all the world will be young4 ,the advances of medicine and surgery will have been such that most of the ailments and limitations of old age will have been eliminated4 ,life will be prolonged at its maximum of efficiency until death comes like sunset1 and is met without pain and without reluctance4 ,there will be no death from disease1 and almost any sort of injury will be curable4 ,and in a thousand years8 ,what will become of our globe and its dominant race1 if no great catastrophe occurs to stop its exponential curve of progress4 ,but for that exponential curve and its tendency towards constant acceleration1 a thousand years would be no great period to foretell4 ,life has become world-wide in the last thousand years4 ,the intellectual outlook has increased with the area of travel and communication4 ,dogmas and shibboleths have lost their force4 ,art and science have been emancipated from their ecclesiastical fetters4 ,but the immense leap made since coal came into its own as a world-force belongs to our own age4 ,the exhaustion of the coal-fields might slow down progress for a time1 but so long as mankind keeps its continuity1 its past achievements and its rate of achievement will act as a stimulus and encouragement to further efforts1 and new sources of energy will be discovered and utilized4 ,and so we may feel justified in expecting continual progress for at least a thousand years4 ,can we imagine the result8 ,a globe laid out like a huge garden1 with a climate under perfect control2 the internal heat of the earth brought to the surface and utilized as a source of never-failing energy4 ,portions of the interior of the earth reclaimed and made habitable2 all machinery and sources of power wisely distributed and made instantly available for all legitimate purposes4 ,the earth's surface and the rippling ether in which it swims made into a vast playground of human thought and emotion1 and all mankind throbbing in unison to every great thought4 ,the ,earth will have become a sentient being4,it will be as closely unified and organized as the human individual himself4 ,mankind will be the 8grey matter0 of its brain4 ,it may not resemble a sentient being high up in the scale of life1 but it will be at least on the level of protococcus or some other such humble plant-cell1 which also consists of a minute proportion of material truly 8alive0 together with a greater bulk of stored foodstuff and waste products4 ,man will be conscious of his closer attachment to the earth4 ,he will feel towards it a sort of personal patriotism1 or the sort of loyalty that a veteran feels towards the ,old ,regiment4 ,specially exalted or sensitive people may even indulge in a kind of ,geolatry animated by an old-world religious fervour4 ,can we focus our mental telescope into yet farther depths of time8 ,a million years or so8 ,it seems rather risky to extrapolate our curves so far4 ,but a million years are but a span in the life of the earth4 ,its records speak to us of many millions4 ,the chalk cliffs of ,dover took several million years to deposit on a former sea-bottom1 and many more to rise to their present eminence4 ,if there is a still farther advance in the life of the earth1 what sort of direction can it take8 ,will a new race have arisen1 as much above humanity as man is above the arboreal ape8 ,or will the further differentiation of man have come to a definite end1 and progress be confined to an ever-increasing richness of intellectual1 artistic1 and emotional life8 ,if there is any progress at all1 it must be by effort1 and the question could be answered with fair probability1 if we could find an incentive to effort after the earth is entirely subdued4 ,such an incentive towards effort will lie in the ever-present danger of a celestial catastrophe1 such as a collision with one of the smaller wandering planets or other denizens of outer space4 ,it may be that the earth will by that time be alive to its own peril1 and will take precautions6 ,its 8grey matter0our own descendantswill be confabulating and organizing in some great scheme of defence4 ,the earth will have to adopt a ,foreign ,policy1 if it is to be the master of its fate for all time4 ,here our dreams are checked by the realization that among the older planets of our solar system we can trace no activity attributable to a 8foreign policy0 of their own4 ,but we must remember that ours is a small planet1 which has very little influence upon its neighbours in space1 and is certainly not a danger to them4 ,if ,mars1 millions of years older than ourselves1 has arrived at such a stage of advancement that it can think of transcending its own boundaries1 it may make some attempt at communication1 but the attempt might take the form which to us would be quite unrecognizable4 ,some observers thought that the persistent thunderstorms and magnetic disturbances experienced during the last opposition over wide areas were signs of such an attempt1 but the coincidence may have been quite accidental4 ,in any case1 we cannot find any sign of the ,martians having succeeded in exercising any powers beyond the surface of their own planet1 though1 if the 8canals0 really exist1 their engineering feats must be truly stupendous4 ,it may be that the earth1 owing to its position between torrid ,mercury and ice-bound ,neptune1 enjoys conditions specially favourable to mental and physical advancement4 ,and so it may happen that it will for immense ages of time be the only planet to burst into consciousness4 ,thus it may at some epoch find itself the undisputed master of the solar system1 and may be able to influence the other planets and make them subservient in some way to its own needs4 ,let nobody think ,i am unduly optimistic about the future of this earth of ours4 ,the difficulty lies rather in visualizing what recent and current progress1 and accelerated progress1 must inevitably bring about when continued for a long time4 ,the only doubtful element appears to be whether the magnificent lan vital of our race1 which has enabled it to conquer the world1 will last through the vast ages to come4 ,but1 fortunately1 there is no sign of its exhaustion4 ,love is still the ruling passion and inspiration of humanity1 which enables men and maidens to brave all the trials and dangers of life in unconscious devotion to a future as yet unimagined and unborn4 99 99 99 99 99 ,transcriber's ,notes3 ,text in italics is enclosed by underscores 7italics74 ,punctuation and spelling inaccuracies were silently corrected4 ,archaic and variable spelling has been preserved4 ,variations in hyphenation and compound words have been preserved4