,,tantalus ,,or ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,man ,,to-,,day ,,and ,,to-,,morrow ,,series ,,daedalus1 or ,science and the ,future ,by ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,icarus1 or ,the ,future of ,science ,by ,bertrand ,russell1 ,f4 ,r4 ,s4 ,,the ,,mongol ,,in ,,our ,,midst ,by ,f4 ,g4 ,crookshank1 ,m4,d4 ,,wireless ,,possibilities ,by ,prof4 ,a4 ,m4 ,low ,,narcissus1 or ,the ,anatomy of ,clothes ,by ,gerald ,heard ,,tantalus1 or ,the ,future of ,man ,by ,f4 ,c4 ,s4 ,schiller ,,in ,,preparation ,,the ,,passing ,,of ,,the ,,phantoms ,by ,professor ,patten ,,woman ,,and ,,the ,,future ,by ,anthony ,m4 ,ludovici ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,,tantalus ,,or ,the ,future of ,man ,,by ,f4 ,c4 ,s4 ,,schiller ,m4,a41 ,d4,sc42 ,fellow and ,tutor of ,corpus ,christi ,college1 ,oxford ,illustration ,man never is1 but always to be1 blest ,,new ,,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,,fifth ,,avenue ,copyright #aibd ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,all ,rights ,reserved ,first ,printing1 ,november1 #aibd ,second ,printing1 ,march1 #aibe ,printed in the ,united ,states of ,america ,,preface ,i rather anticipate that superficial critics who do not like the argument of this essay will accuse it of pessimism1 a charge which perhaps means little more than that they do not like it4 ,nevertheless1 it may be worth while to point out1 7#a7 that pessimism is not a logical objection to a contention of which the truth cannot otherwise be questioned1 and 7#b7 that though the argument of ,tantalus may be said generally to corroborate that of ,daedalus and ,icarus1 yet its conclusion is much less pessimistic than theirs1 because 7#c7 it makes it very plain that the evils which threaten the future of mankind are in no case unavoidable4 ,if it is called #8pessimism' to point out the methods by which men may escape destruction1 because men do not care to adopt them1 ,i suppose it must be #8optimism' to rush violently and open-eyed down a precipice1 and to expect to be saved by a miracle4 ,certainly such would appear to be the belief upon which human affairs are at present conducted4 ,f4,c4,s4,s4 ,,tantalus ,,tantalus ,,prologue3 ,,the ,,oracle ,,of ,,the ,,dead ,when ,i read in ,mr ,haldane's ,daedalus the wonderful things that ,science was going to do for us1 and in ,mr ,russell's ,icarus how easily both we and it might come to grief in consequence1 it at once became plain to me that of all the heroes of antiquity ,tantalus would be the one best fitted to prognosticate the probable future of ,man4 ,for1 if we interpret the history of ,daedalus as meaning the collapse of ,minoan civilization under the strain imposed on its moral fibre by material progress1 and the fate of ,icarus as meaning man's inability to use the powers of the air without crashing1 one could gauge the probability that history would repeat itself still further1 and that man would once more allow his vices to cheat him of the happiness that seemed so clearly within his reach4 ,i determined1 however1 to confirm this intelligent forecast by consulting ,tantalus himself4 ,to consult the oracle of a dead hero1 it was1 ,i knew1 only necessary to undergo the process of #8incubation1' a sort of camping out on his tomb1 in the skin of a sacrificial beast2 and fortunately the tomb of ,tantalus had just been discovered in ,phrygia by the archologists of the ,british ,school at ,athens4 ,i set out1 therefore1 with great promptitude1 and in due course1 arrived at the ruins of the tomb of ,tantalus4 ,they did not much resemble a first-class hotel1 and1 of course1 my idea of an #8incubation' was well laughed at1 but ,i managed to find a pretty level corner1 more or less sheltered from the wind4 ,here ,i wrapped myself up in my excellent rug1 having decided to dispense with the more correct method of ensconcing myself in the gory hide of a sacrificial ox4 ,the night was fine1 though cold1 and fortunately there were no mosquitoes1 nor any of the other insects one would inevitably have encountered in the dwellings of the living4 ,but the ground was very1 very1 hard1 and ,i tossed about for hours1 regretting my classical education and the psychical researcher's rashness in trying foolish experiments4 ,at last ,i fell asleep1 at least ,i suppose so4 ,i also fell a great deal further4 ,i seemed to go right through my rocky bed1 and to fall down1 down1 down1 interminably1 through a sort of elastic space4 ,when at last the not wholly unpleasant motion stopped1 ,i found myself in a vast1 grey1 sandy plain1 illuminated by a cold grey light as though of dawn4 ,the only thing to catch the eye was a small round hummock1 not very far from me4 ,on it grew a mighty tree1 with dark green pointed leaves and drooping branches1 surrounded by a gleaming white fence or paling4 ,i naturally walked towards it4 ,as ,i got near1 ,i noticed that the white paling1 which completely enclosed the hummock1 was composed of bones1 or rather of every imaginable sort of spine1 tooth and sting1 garnished with the saws and swords of sawfish and swordfish1 and all knit together into an impenetrable cheval de frise that prevented approach to the foot of the tree4 ,the soil all round this strange hedge had apparently been trodden into deep mud by some creature that had walked round and round the tree1 and the water required for its manufacture was supplied by a small spring which rose within the enclosure and flowed out through its interstices4 ,as ,i walked round the tree to the further side of the hummock1 ,i came upon an extraordinary sight4 ,i beheld a naked man trying to reach some of the fruit that dangled down from the outer branches of the tree but appeared to be just out of his reach1 and so intent upon his design that he did not notice my approach4 ,he seemed a tall man1 and the upper part of his body was well formed4 ,his features were good and regular1 though somewhat hard1 and not intellectual2 his resolute jaw bespoke the man of action1 accustomed to command and to be obeyed4 ,so far1 his appearance would have done credit to any modern captain of industry4 ,but the lower half of his body appeared to be misshapen4 ,his thighs were so curved that he could not walk upright1 but had to stoop and lean forward as he slowly shambled along4 ,still more monstrous seemed the feet1 with which he churned up the mud around the fence2 they were enormous and hardly seemed human in their shape1 though they were too deeply plunged in the mud to permit one to see what exactly was wrong with them4 ,this strange being1 whom the bold intuition of the dream-consciousness at once identified with ,tantalus1 was evidently trying to grasp the fruit that hung from the lower branches of the tree4 ,for a while his efforts were vain1 but then a gust of wind brought within his reach a large conical shining red fruit he had long coveted4 ,it was one of the strange features of the tree that it was covered with fruit1 and higher up also with flowers1 of the most various sizes1 shapes1 and colours4 ,he seized it triumphantly2 but the effect was surprising4 ,for he had hardly touched it when it exploded1 and covered him from head to foot with its blood-red juice4 ,he at once sank senseless to the ground4 ,but1 after a while1 he slowly recovered1 and recommenced his old game4 ,this time1 he attacked a large round yellowish fruit2 but when he succeeded in seizing it1 it too exploded1 and poured out upon him volumes of a heavy yellow-green vapour4 ,again he collapsed1 and this time his stupor lasted longer4 ,by the time he began to stir again ,i had1 ,i thought1 grasped the situation1 and determined to intervene4 ,so ,i drew near1 and addressed him3 8,can ,i be mistaken in thinking that ,i see before me the far-famed hero1 ,tantalus1 boon companion of the gods80 8,and their victim40 8,and what tree is this1 ,i pray you1 about which you busy yourself80 8,the ,tree of ,knowledge40 8,and the water1 which you have trampled into mud1 is what80 8,the ,elixir of ,life40 8,then you seem to have all the materials for a happy life4 ,why don't you eat of the fruits of the tree1 and drink of the elixir80 8,you have seen the results of my efforts40 8,i cannot but think you have been unfortunate in your choice of the fruits3 there are many that look much better higher up40 8,and how am ,i to get at them80 8,well1 of course1 you must break through all these debris of former animal life1 which bar your access to the trunk of the tree1 and prevent you from drinking of the water of life2 after that1 you can climb up the tree1 and pick the best of the fruits40 8,and how am ,i to break through the barrier of bones80 8,even though you appear to have no instruments1 you can surely find a stone80 8,where shall ,i find a stone in the ,plain of ,forgetfulness8 ,and besides1 how should ,i climb the tree with these 444 feet80 ,and he lifted up one of his monstrous limbs4 8,certainly you seem to be pretty badly earth-bound10 said ,i1 8but ,i will try to find you some stones40 ,so off ,i set4 ,i had not got far when a fierce blast struck me and peppered me with sand4 ,i struggled stoutly against it1 but was nearly choked4 ,and then1 suddenly1 ,i awoke to find that day was dawning and that the wind had gone round to the north1 and was blowing in my face4 ,but ,i was well satisfied with my experiment4 ,the interpretation of the response ,i had obtained from ,tantalus was too plain to need the aid of a psycho-analyst4 ,i ,our best prophets are growing very anxious about our future4 ,they are afraid we are getting to know too much1 and are likely to use our knowledge to commit suicide1 or rather1 mutual murder1 after the fashion of the ,kilkenny cats4 ,to these dismal forecasts it is reasonable to reply that there is nothing novel in the present situation4 ,the human race has always known enough to wreck itself1 and its abounding folly has always inspired its wise men with the gravest apprehension for its future4 ,yet1 either by chance or providence1 it has always known also how to avoid destruction4 ,it has never known enough to make itself happy2 nor does it know enough to do so now4 ,its future has always been precarious1 because it has always been uncertain whether it would use its knowledge well or ill1 to improve or to ruin itself4 ,it has always had a choice between alternative policies1 and it has so now4 ,what sense then is there in making such a fuss about the present crisis8 ,it is a particularly plain case of the perennial choice of ,hercules4 ,what is needed is just a little clear thinking and plain speaking to a society more than usually debauched by a long regime of flattery1 propaganda1 and subterfuge4 ,mankind can make a fool of itself1 as it always could2 if it does1 its blood will be on its own head4 ,for it has knowledge enough to avoid the dangers that threaten it1 if it will use its knowledge properly4 ,,ii ,the first fact to be enunciated plainly1 and faced1 until it grows familiar1 and its import is appreciated1 is that1 biologically speaking1 ,man has ceased to be a progressive species long ago4 ,the evolutionary impetus which carried our ancestors from the level of the ape or even of the lemur1 through such subhuman types as ,pithecanthropus1 and the ,heidelberg and ,neanderthal men1 to #8modern' man1 seems to have spent itself by the middle of the palolithic period1 i4e4 say1 thirty thousand years ago4 ,at any rate1 the ,cro-,magnon people of the ,aurignacian age1 who then appeared upon the scene1 were in no wise inferior to any subsequent race of men1 either in stature or in brain capacity4 ,they average six feet three inches in height1 with one-sixth more brains than the modern ,european4 ,so far indeed as their physical remains can indicate1 they seem to have been very definitely the finest race of human beings that has ever existed4 ,if we have improved on them1 it has probably been only in such minor matters as resistance to the microbes of the many diseases which flourish among dense populations under slum conditions4 ,against that probability have to be set such certainties as that our toes and many of our muscles are being atrophied and that we are getting more liable to caries and baldness4 ,this remarkable fact of the arrest of his biological development is certainly the greatest mystery in the history of ,man4 ,it at once raises two further questions3 ,in the first place1 how did it happen1 and what caused it8 ,and1 secondly1 what has enabled man1 nevertheless1 to progress in other respects1 in knowledge1 in power1 and in culture8 ,to answer the first question we cannot do better than argue back from what is now the most salient feature about man's biological position1 namely that his survival is determined far more by his relations to the social group to which he belongs than by personal efficiency3 hence he can draw on the collective resources of his tribe1 and1 to a growing extent1 gets emancipated from the control of natural selection4 ,thus social selection and the survival of societies profoundly modify 7and often defeat71 the working of natural selection4 ,the advantages are obvious2 it is no longer essential for a member of a society that collectively controls the conditions of existence to develop any high degree of personal capacity1 in order to survive4 ,a single wise and provident minister1 like ,joseph1 is enough to keep alive millions of ,pharaoh's subjects through the lean years of famine4 ,but the inferior and incompetent survive with the rest4 ,now1 if we suppose that by mid-palolithic times man had established his ascendency over nature and perfected his social organization sufficiently to render these services to his fellows1 we have suggested a possible cause of the cessation of biological progress4 ,for social influences are as likely as not to be #8contra-selective1' that is1 to tend to preserve by preference the stocks which are less viable from a merely biological point of view4 ,they are markedly so at present1 and it would be asking too much to expect the tribal chiefs of early men to have been wise and provident enough to see to it that their social institutions were eugenical in their effects4 ,we cannot even now find such a pitch of wisdom and providence in the controllers of our destinies4 ,,iii ,the answer to the second question is much easier4 ,the human race has continued to progress in its culture1 in its knowledge1 in its power over nature1 because it has devised institutions which have created for it a continuous social memory that defies death4 ,now1 as ever1 the wisest and the best must die1 while their place is taken by babies born as ignorant and void of knowledge as in the beginning4 ,only there has been invented apparatus which relieves the civilized baby of his hereditary ignorance1 and renders him potentially the heir to all the wisdom of the ages4 ,in the first place1 ,language not only extends enormously the possibilities of co-operation and common action1 but also renders possible the consolidation of customs and their preservation by oral tradition4 ,in the next place1 ,writing enables a society to record all that it considers worth remembering4 ,upon these two inventions may be reared vast intricate structures1 religious1 political1 social1 and scientific1 which knit together and dominate human societies from generation to generation1 and create the conditions for an almost mechanical accumulation of knowledge4 ,man has thereby become an educable creature and fallen a victim to the arts of the examiner4 ,provided the mechanisms of education do not get out of gear1 it is hard to set limits to the amounts of knowledge with which he can be crammed2 but it is clear that they are far greater than he could ever have acquired in a lifetime for himself4 ,and as education 7of sorts7 has now become world wide1 it might seem that the future of knowledge was now assured1 and no longer liable to setbacks such as those due to the famous burning of the library of ,alexandria at the command of the ,caliph ,omar1 or the extinction of the only ,greek scientists who seriously concerned themselves with the applications of science to life1 of ,archimedes and his ,school1 in the sack of ,syracuse4 ,at any rate1 it seemed clear that progress in knowledge could continue indefinitely1 even in an otherwise stationary or decadent society4 ,whoever argued thus would fail to make sufficient allowance for the perversity of human nature4 ,human institutions1 like the human body1 are ever tending to get clogged with the waste products of their own working4 ,hence1 so far from performing the functions for which they were intended1 they are constantly becoming the most formidable instruments for their frustration4 ,experience shows how easily ,churches become the most effective deadeners of religious zeal1 how often ,law becomes the negation of justice1 how deadly is the ,school to the inborn craving for knowledge which seemed to ,aristotle so characteristic of man's nature4 ,accordingly1 no one familiar with the actual working of academic institutions is likely to fall into the error of pinning his faith to them4 ,they are1 of course1 designed for the purpose of preserving and promoting the highest and most advanced knowledge hitherto attained3 but do they anywhere fulfil this purpose8 ,its execution must of necessity be left to professors not exempt from human frailty1 always selected by more or less defective methods1 whose interests by no means coincide with those of their subjects4 ,the interest of the subject is to become more widely understood and so more influential4 ,the interest of the professor is to become more unassailable1 and so more authoritative4 ,he achieves this by becoming more technical4 ,for the more technical he gets1 the fewer can comprehend him2 the fewer are competent to criticize him1 the more of an oracle he becomes2 if1 therefore1 he wishes for an easy life of undisturbed academic leisure1 the more he will indulge his natural tendency to grow more technical as his knowledge grows1 the more he will turn away from those aspects of his subject which have any direct practical or human interest4 ,he will wrap himself in mysteries of technical jargon1 and become as nearly as possible unintelligible4 ,truly1 as ,william ,james once exclaimed to me1 apropos of the policy of certain philosophers1 8the natural enemy of any subject is the professor thereof60 ,it is clear that if these tendencies are allowed to prevail1 every subject must in course of time become unteachable1 and not worth learning4 ,thus educational systems become the chief enemies of education1 and seats of learning the chief obstacles to the growth of knowledge1 while in an otherwise stagnant or decadent society these tendencies sooner or later get the upper hand and utterly corrupt the social memory4 ,the power of the professor is revealed not so much by the things he teaches1 as by the things he fails or refuses to teach4 ,history is full of examples4 ,how many religions have not perished from ritual sclerosis1 how many sciences have not been degraded into pseudo-sciences or games6 ,logic has been just examinable nonsense for over two thousand years4 ,the present economic chaos in the world has been indirectly brought about by the policy adopted by the professors of economics forty or fifty years ago1 to suit their own convenience4 ,for they then decided that they must escape from the unwelcome attentions of the public by becoming more #8scientific'2 i4e4 they ceased to express themselves in plain language and took to mathematical formulae and curves instead2 with the result that the world promptly relapsed into its primitive depths of economic ignorance4 ,so soon as the professors had retired from it1 every economic heresy and delusion1 which had been exposed and uprooted by ,adam ,smith1 at once revived and flourished4 ,in one generation economics disappeared completely from the public ken and the political world1 and the makers of the ,peace ,treaties of #aiai were so incapable of understanding an economic argument that not even the lucid intelligence of ,mr ,keynes could dissuade them from enacting the preposterous conditions which rendered impossible the realization of their aims4,a ,nor was it so very long ago that1 in order to save the ,mathematical ,tripos at ,cambridge1 it had to be recast1 because it had degenerated into an intellectual jig-saw puzzle1 wholly unrelated to the applications of mathematics to the other sciences4 ,to avoid jealousies1 ,i hasten to add that the ,university of ,oxford1 which has organized itself as an asylum for lost causes1 skilfully cultivates1 by means of its classical and historical studies1 a backward-looking bias in its alumni4 ,the true #8,greats' man is meant to go down indelibly imbued with the conviction that in matters of morals and politics nothing of importance has been discovered or said since ,plato and ,aristotle1 and that nothing else matters4 ,clearly then we cannot take for granted that in any society knowledge can progress without limits1 nor can we count on our academic institutions to save us from stagnation and decay1 even in matters of knowledge4 ,all institutions are social mechanisms1 and all mechanisms need a modicum of intelligent supervision1 in the absence of which they become dangerous engines of destruction4 ,,iv ,it appears then that we can extract no guarantee of progress either from the nature of ,man or from the nature of human institutions4 ,there is no law of progress1 if by law be meant a superior power able to coerce the creatures that are said to #8obey' it4 ,neither can we extract from history any proof of the superiority of civilized man over his uncivilized ancestors4 ,such progress as has been attained has been achieved only by the active co-operation of the progressive organisms3 every step has been fought for1 and progress has ceased whenever effort ceased1 or was switched off into different directions4 ,consequently1 modern man has no right to #8boast himself far better than his fathers'--in intrinsic quality4 ,intrinsically1 i4e4 apart from the effects of culture and social training1 it is probable that he is slightly inferior in capacity to his own ancestors1 while very markedly inferior to the great races of antiquity 7like the ,greeks7 in their hey-day4 ,nor is there any reason to suppose that his moral nature has changed materially4 ,modern man may be a little tamer and better-tempered1 because he has been herded together much more closely than primitive man1 and city life1 even in slums1 demands1 and produces1 a certain #8urbanity4' ,for many generations those who would not pack tight and could not stand the strain of constantly exhibiting #8company manners' and accommodating their action to those of their fellows1 must have fled away into the wilds1 where they could be independent1 or have eliminated themselves in other ways1 e4g4 by committing murder4 ,it is probable that the social history of ,iceland1 settled as it was by unbridled individualists who would not brook any form of organized government1 might throw some light on this process of taming the individual4 ,nevertheless there is little doubt that1 in the main1 humanity is still ,yahoo-manity4 ,alike in mentality and in moral1 modern man is still substantially identical with his palolithic ancestors4 ,he is still the irrational1 impulsive1 emotional1 foolish1 destructive1 cruel1 credulous1 creature he always was4 ,normally the ,yahoo in him is kept under control by the constant pressure of a variety of social institutions2 but let anything upset an established social order1 and the ,yahoo comes to the front at once4 ,the history of the past fifty years abundantly proves that man is still capable of atrocities equal to any in his record4 ,not only have we lived through the greatest political and the deadliest natural convulsion1 the ,great ,war and the ,tokio earthquake1 but the ,russian ,revolution has outdone the ,french and ,landru the legendary ,bluebeard1 while for mingled atrocity and baseness the murders of ,rasputin and of ,alexander of ,serbia are unsurpassed in history4 ,the painful truth is that civilization has not improved ,man's moral nature4 ,his moral habits are still mainly matters of custom1 and the effect of moral theories is nugatory everywhere4 ,thus civilization is not even skin deep2 it does not go deeper than the clothes4 ,v ,clearly it is risky to expose the inelastic nature of so stubbornly conservative a creature to new conditions at a rapid rate4 ,he may not be able to adapt himself quickly enough1 and his old reactions1 which did little or no harm before1 may become extremely dangerous4 ,yet this is just what has happened4 ,science has exposed the palolithic savage masquerading in modern garb to a series of physical and mental shocks which have endangered his equilibrium4 ,it has also enormously extended his power and armed him with a variety of delicate and penetrating instruments which have often proved edge tools in his hands and which the utmost wisdom could hardly be trusted to use aright4 ,under these conditions the fighting instinct ceases to be an antiquated foible1 like the hunting instinct1 and becomes a deadly danger4 ,no wonder the more prescient are dismayed at the prospect of the old savage passions running amok in the full panoply of civilization6 ,,vi ,nor is this the final item in our tale of woe4 ,a third and most sinister fact which has to be faced is that ,civilization1 as at present constituted1 is very definitely a deteriorating agency1 conducing to the degeneration of mankind4 ,this effect of ,civilization is nothing new1 but has been operating1 it would seem1 from the beginning1 though not probably as intensively as now3 its discovery1 however1 is very recent4 ,it is quite indirect1 unintended1 and fortuitous1 but cumulative1 and in the long run has probably been a chief cause in the decay of ,states and civilizations1 as well as an important factor in the arrest of biological development which we have had to recognize4 ,a simple and easily observable sociological fact is at the bottom of the mischief4 ,the different classes in a society have different birth-rates and death-rates1 and the differences between these yield their several net rates of increase or decrease4 ,now1 whereas under the conditions of savage life class differences can hardly exist1 or1 at least cannot be accentuated1 so that the whole tribe flourishes or perishes together1 and among barbarians the upper classes have a very great advantage and the tribe recruits itself chiefly from the children of the chiefs1 because the conditions of life are so severe that the lower classes are not able to rear many children2 in civilized societies these conditions are reversed4 ,it is found that though both birth-rates and death-rates grow as we descend the social scale1 so does the net rate of increase4 ,indeed1 the highest or ruling class nowhere appears to keep up its numbers without considerable recruitment from below4 ,so society1 as at present organized1 is always dying off at the top1 and proliferating at the bottom1 of the social pyramid4 ,the disastrous consequences of this sort of social organization may easily be apprehended1 with a little reflection4 7#a7 ,all societies1 even those whose social structure is most rigid1 have need of ability1 discover it1 and reward it by social promotion4 ,but 7#b7 as this promotion means passing into a class with a relatively inadequate rate of reproduction1 the biological penalty attaching to social promotion is racial extinction4 ,thus 7#c7 the ultimate reward of merit is sterilization1 and society appears to be an organization devoted to the suicidal task of extirpating any ability it may chance to contain1 by draining it away from any stratum in which it may occur1 promoting it into the highest1 and there destroying it4 ,it is exactly as though a dairyman should set in motion apparatus for separating the cream from the milk1 and then1 as it rose1 skim it off1 and throw it away6 ,at present it is calculated that the highest classes in the chief civilized societies only reproduce themselves to the extent of fifty per cent4 of their number in each generation1 so that the hereditary ability of half of them is lost in each generation4 ,but even then the remainder is largely wasted4 ,it is churned into froth and scum by social forces4 ,for neither now nor at any time has social intelligence shown itself equal to devising a training for the youth of the highest classes that would provide them with adequate stimuli to develop their faculties1 and to lead a strenuous life of social service4 ,the children of the rich are tempted to live for #8society' in the narrower sense1 which means frittering away one's life on a round of vacuous amusement2 and they rarely resist the temptation4 ,naturally it is difficult to trace the accumulation of ability in the upper social strata which is theoretically to be expected4 ,on the other hand1 in some subjects at any rate1 the symptoms of a world-wide dearth of ability are becoming unmistakable4 ,the ,great ,war1 though it made abundantly manifest the prevalence of incompetents in high places1 did not reveal the existence either of a great general or of a great statesman anywhere4 ,it is superfluous to insist either on the fatuity of a social organization such as this1 or on the certainty of racial degeneration which it entails3 but it may be well to draw attention to the rapidity with which these degenerative processes are at present sapping the vitality and value of our civilized races4 ,the failure to reproduce does not1 as in former times1 affect merely the aristocracy in the highest social strata2 it has spread to the whole of the professional and middle classes1 and to most classes of skilled labour4 ,it is not too much to say that1 with the exception of the miners1 none of the desirable elements in the nation are doing their bit to keep up the population1 and that its continued growth is mainly due to the unrestrained breeding of the casual labourers and the feeble-minded4 ,in the rest of the population its increase is checked by birth-control and the postponement of marriage1 neither of which affects the undesirables4 ,they are too stupid1 reckless1 and ignorant to practise the former1 and have nothing to gain by the latter4 ,also1 to make it quite certain that they shall form a true #8proletariate1' the wisdom of our rulers ordains that a knowledge of birth-control shall be a 7fatal7 privilege reserved for the intelligent and well-to-do4 ,they instruct the police to prevent it from penetrating to the poor and stupid--apparently from the mistaken idea that the ,state needs plenty of cheap labour and cheap cannon-fodder4 ,so child-bearing remains compulsory for the wretched women of the poor1 whereas elsewhere only those women produce children who desire them1 and natural selection is thus allowed gradually to eliminate the temperament of the unwilling 7and1 therefore1 probably less competent7 mother4 ,the dysgenic effects of this class-discrimination are further intensified by other tendencies3 7#a7 ,the advance of medicine and hygiene has enormously diminished selective mortality in all classes1 and improved the chances of weaklings to survive and leave descendants4 7#b7 ,the advance of philanthropy preserves them1 especially in the lower classes1 where formerly the mortality was largely selective and a high death-rate both counteracted an excessive birth-rate and increased the value of the survivors4 ,the emotional appeal of #8baby-saving' goes so directly to the heart of civilized man that his head never reflects whether the particular baby is worth saving1 and whether a baby from a different breed and with a better pedigree would not be better worth having4 7#c7 ,modern obstetrics save the lives of thousands of women1 whose physique is such that in former times they would inevitably have died in child-birth4 ,the result is that child-birth is becoming more difficult4 ,also babies brought up on the bottle1 which has an irresistible attraction for microbes of all sorts1 are apt to be less healthy than those nourished in the more primitive manner4 7#d7 ,lastly1 the bastardizing1 which used formerly to provide for a considerable infusion of the blood of the upper classes into the lower1 has now practically ceased4 ,since the merry days of ,king ,charles ,,ii1 very few noble families of royal descent have been added to the peerage4 ,,vii ,our civilization1 therefore1 carries within it the seeds of its own decay and destruction1 and it does not require high prophetic gifts to predict the future of a race which goes the way marked out for it by such perversely suicidal institutions4 ,it cannot improve1 but must degenerate1 and the only question would seem to be whether the decadence of ,man will leave him viable as a biological species4 ,at present it looks very much as though his blind leaders would lead their blinder followers from catastrophe to catastrophe1 through imperialist world-wars to class-wars and to race-wars3 but even if1 by some miraculous rally of human intelligence1 these convulsions should be averted1 the prospect will not really be improved4 ,the violent destruction of the human race by war will only be more dramatic3 it will not be more fatal than its gradual decay as its arts and sciences slowly fossilize1 or peter out1 in an overwhelming flood of feeble-mindedness4 ,,viii ,this is the one alternative4 ,we shall get to it1 if we go on as we are going3 but it is not our doom4 ,the alternative is to exercise the danger by an adequate reform of human nature and of human institutions4 ,this again seems attainable in at least two ways4 ,the first1 and more paradoxical1 of these would make a direct frontal attack on the palolithic ,yahoo1 and try to bring about his moral reformation4 ,the means for this purpose are ready to hand4 ,christian ethics have been in being1 as a moral theory1 for nearly two thousand years4 ,if the ,yahoo could be really christianized1 he would at any rate cease to cut his own throat in cutting his neighbour's4 ,and it is astonishing how much scientific support is forthcoming for the paradoxes of ,christian ethics4 ,it is an historical fact that the meek have a knack of inheriting the earth after their lords and masters have killed each other off1 and that passive resistance wears out the greatest violence1 and conscientious objection defeats the craftiest opportunism1 if only you can get enough of them4 ,it is a biological fact that the rabbit survives better than the tiger2 and the same would appear to be true of the human #8rabbit' and the ,nietzschean #8wild beast4' ,intrinsically1 therefore1 ,christian ethics might be well worth trying4 ,i wish ,i could believe it likely that this policy will be tried4 ,but the palolithic ,yahoo has been dosed with ,christian ethics for two thousand years1 and they have never either impressed or improved him4 ,their paradoxes give him a moral shock1 and he has not brains enough to grasp their rationality4 ,he will exclaim rather with the gallant admiral in the ,house of ,commons1 when justly indignant at the unheard-of notion that a #8moral gesture' of a ,labour ,government might be the best policy1 8,good ,god1 sir1 if we are to rely for our air security on the ,sermon on the ,mount1 all ,i can say is1 #8,god help us6'0 ,besides1 the proposal to put ,christian principles into practice would be bitterly opposed by all the ,churches in ,christendom4,b ,it may be more prudent1 therefore1 to try a safer though slower way1 that of the eugenical reform and reconstruction of our social organization4 ,as to the possibilities in this direction1 ,i incline to be much more hopeful than either ,mr ,haldane or ,mr ,russell4 ,mr ,haldane despises eugenics1 because he is looking for the more spectacular advent of the #8ectogenetic baby1' to be the ,saviour of mankind4 ,but he might not arrive1 or be seriously delayed in transmission1 or fail to come up to ,mr ,haldane's expectations2 and1 meanwhile1 we cannot afford to wait4 ,mr ,russell distrusts eugenics1 because he fears that any eugenical scheme put into practice will be #8nobbled' by our present ruling rings1 and perverted into an instrument to consolidate their power4 ,he thinks that dissent from dominant beliefs and institutions will be taken as proof of imbecility1 and sterilized accordingly1,c and that the result would merely be to spread over all the world the hopeless uniformity and commonplaceness of the ideals and practice of the ,american business man1 as depicted by ,mr ,sinclair ,lewis4 ,this prognostication would be very plausible1 if we supposed eugenics to be introduced into the social structure from above1 privily1 and in small doses1 and by way of administrative order1 as under the existing ,acts to check the spread of feeble-mindedness4 ,but this method would be impracticable4 ,it would not generate anything like the social momentum necessary to carry through any radical reform4 ,to make it effective1 it would have to be backed by a powerful1 enthusiastic1 and intelligent public sentiment4 ,this presupposes that the public has been biologically educated to appreciate the actual situation1 and has been thoroughly wrought up about the fatuity of our social order1 and understands what is wrong with it4 ,if it understands that much1 it can also be made to see that it is fantastic to expect to leap to the ,ideal ,state by a social revolution4 ,no one now knows what the institutions of an ,ideal ,state would be like1 nor how they would work4 ,we only know that they will have to be evolved out of our present institutions1 even as the ,superman has to be evolved out of the primitive ,yahoo4 ,in either case1 the process will be gradual1 and its success will depend upon details1 on taking one step after another at the right rate in the right direction1 making a new adjustment here1 overcoming an old difficulty there1 removing obstacles1 smoothing over the shell-holes and scars dating from ,man's lurid past1 and1 in general1 feeling one's way systematically and scientifically to better things4 ,such a mode of progression may seem unheroic1 but it has the great advantage that it is unlikely to go irretrievably wrong4 ,if we know from the outset that we are tentatively feeling our way1 we shall always be on the look out for traps and possibilities of going astray1 trying out the value of our policies by their results1 and willing to retrace our steps when we have made a false one4 ,the social temper1 therefore1 will become far more intelligent and reasonable than it has been hitherto4 ,it will be slow to dogmatize1 and will regard the toleration of differences of opinion as among the cardinal principles of a sanely progressive social order4 ,for as we can no longer assume1 with ,plato and the other ,utopians1 that perfection may be postulated1 provision has always to be made for the improvement of the social order4 ,it can never be accepted as absolutely good1 but must always be regarded as capable1 in principle1 of being bettered4 ,even the best of established institutions are only good relatively to the alternatives to which they showed themselves superior3 under changed conditions they may become inferior1 and may fail us1 or ruin us1 if we do not make haste to transform them into something better fitted to the new conditions4 ,hence the social order must be plastic1 and must never be allowed to grow rigid4 ,there must always be room in it for experiments that have a reasonable prospect of turning out to be improvements4 ,for progress will depend on the timely adoption of such novelties4 ,but society has no means of commanding them at will4 ,it has to wait till they occur to some one4 ,as biological variations have to arise spontaneously before they can be selected1 so valuable new ideas have to occur in a human mind before they can be tried and approved4 ,society cannot originate discoveries1 it can only refrain from so organizing itself as to stamp them out when they occur4 ,it is vitally necessary1 therefore1 that we should beware of suppressing variations1 whether of thought or of bodily endowment1 that may prove to be valuable4 ,also1 of course1 we shall have to realize that our whole procedure is essentially experimental1 and all that this implies4 ,we do not know1 at the outset1 what would be the best obtainable type1 either of man or of society2 true1 but we mean to find out4 ,nor is it unreasonable to expect to do so as we go along4 ,we start with a pretty shrewd suspicion that certain types1 say the feeble-minded1 the sickly1 the insane1 are undesirable1 and that no good can come of coddling and cultivating them3 we similarly are pretty sure that certain other types1 say the intelligent1 healthy1 and energetic1 are inherently superior to the former4 ,we try1 therefore1 to improve and increase the better types4 ,how precisely1 and how most effectively we do not quite know1 though we can make pretty good preliminary guesses4 ,so we try4 ,that will entail experimentation in a variety of directions1 with #8control experiments1' and a modicum of mistakes4 ,but our mistakes will not be fatal1 because if we advance tentatively and with intelligent apprehension1 we shall realize them in time1 and shall not feel bound to persist in any course that yields unsatisfactory results4 ,it is really one of the great advantages of eugenics that it cannot proceed upon any cut-and-dried scheme1 but will have to be guided by the results of experiment and the fruits of experience1 each of which will be followed and discussed by an intensely interested public4 ,for the difficulties of eugenics are all difficulties of detail1 and intelligent attention to detail may overcome them all4 ,thus the dysgenical working of civilized society1 which has come about unintentionally through the unfortunate convergence of a number of tendencies1 may be altered similarly1 by changing the incidence of social forces4 ,,ix ,if scientific eugenics can put a stop to the contra-selection incidental to civilization1 ,man will recover the plasticity and the progressiveness he once possessed1 and will be able to evolve further--in whatever direction seems to him best4 ,we need not take alarm at this possibility1 for with his superior knowledge he may surely be trusted to make a better job of his evolution than the ,lemur and the ,pithecanthropus1 who were our progenitors and managed to evolve into modern man4 ,but the process will necessarily be a slow one1 even though a comprehensive scheme of eugenics will be providing simultaneously two sources of improvement1 by the elimination of defectives at the bottom of the social scale1 and by the increase of ability at the top4 ,as1 moreover1 time presses1 and sheer destruction may overtake us before eugenics have made much difference1 it would be highly desirable if some means could be found to accelerate the change of heart required4 ,for this purpose1 ,i am much less inclined to put my trust in the advance of pharmacology than ,mr ,haldane and ,mr ,russell4,d ,hitherto new drugs have only meant new vices1 sometimes 7like cocaine7 of so fascinating a character as to distract the whole police force from their proper function of repressing crime4 ,so it seems legitimate to be very sceptical about moral transformation scenes to be wrought by pills and injections4 ,on the other hand there does seem to be a science from the possible progress of which something of a sensational kind might not unreasonably be expected4 ,it is1 moreover1 the science most directly concerned with affairs of this sort4 ,psychology1 the science of human mentality1 is1 by common consent1 in a deplorably backward state4 ,it has remained a ground for metaphysical excursions and a playground for the arbitrary pedantries of classificatory systematists4 ,its efforts to become scientific have only led it to ape assumptions and to borrow notions found to be appropriate in sciences with widely different problems and objects4 ,the results1 as the psychologists themselves confess1 are meagre and disappointing2 which1 of course1 only proves that the borrowed notions are inappropriate and incapable of making ,psychology into an effective science4 ,but if psychologists should take it into their heads to settle down to business1 to recognize the primary obligation of every science to develop methods and conceptions capable of working upon its subject-matter1 and so tried to authenticate their #8truth' after the ordinary fashion of the other sciences1 namely by the pragmatic test of successful working1 some surprising effects might be elicited even from the actual human mind4 ,for there is reason to suppose that its present organization is very far from being the best of which it is capable4 ,it has come about in a very haphazard manner1 and we are not at present making anything like an adequate use of all our powers4 ,hence by changing the gearing and re-arranging the traditional coupling1 so to speak1 of our faculties1 improvements might conceivably be wrought which would seem to us to border on the miraculous4 ,thus a pragmatically efficient ,psychology might actually invert the miracle of ,circe1 and really transform the ,yahoo into a man4 ,x ,i have endeavoured in this very summary sketch to show that the doom of ,tantalus is by no means unconditional1 and that he can save himself if he chooses1 and that by no superhuman effort1 but merely by recognizing facts that are right before his nose and well within his comprehension1 and by a little clear thinking upon their import4 ,but ,i would not presume to predict that he will save himself3 history affords no unambiguous guide4 ,it seems to show that something worse and something better than what actually happens is always conceivable1 and that neither our hopes nor our fears are ever fully realized4 ,if so1 poor ,tantalus1 hoping against hope1 fearing against reason1 may muddle along for a good while yet1 without repeating either his ancient error of imagining that he could sup with the gods1 or his modern folly of using his reason1 as ,goethe's ,mephistopheles declared1 only to become more bestial than any beast6 ,,footnotes3 ,a ,the most absurd perhaps was the clause1 appearing in all the ,peace ,treaties1 which made #8reparations' a first charge on all the assets of the defeated countries4 ,this1 of course1 completely destroyed their credit1 and incapacitated them from raising a loan1 forcing them to have recourse to progressive inflation1 and so into bankruptcy4 ,b ,this does not mean1 of course1 that there are no ,christians in the ,churches1 but only that they are not in control of these institutions4 ,c ,icarus1 p4 #di4 ,d cf4 ,daedalus1 p4 #cd2 ,icarus1 p4 #ed4 ,,transcriber',s ,,notes3 ,italicized text is surrounded by underscores3 italics4 ,obvious typographical errors have been corrected4