,transcriber's ,notes #a4 ,new original cover art included with this e,book is granted to the public domain4 #b4 ,typographical errors and hyphenation inconsistencies were silently corrected4 #c4 ,the text version is coded for italics and the like mark-ups i4e41 7a7 italics are indicated thus italic2 7b7 small-caps are indicated thus ,,caps2 7c7 ,images are indicated as ,illustration3 7with narration4447 7d7 ,footnotes were moved to the end of the book4 99 99 99 99 99 ,,daedalus ,,or ,,science ,,and ,,the ,,future ,,to-,,day ,,and ,,to-,,morrow ,,series ,,daedalus1 ,,or ,,science ,,and ,,the ,,future ,by ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,haldane ,,icarus1 ,,or ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,science ,by ,bertrand ,russell1 ,f4,r4,s4 ,,the ,,mongol ,,in ,,our ,,midst1 ,,or ,,man ,,and ,,his ,,three ,,faces ,by ,f4 ,g4 ,crookshank1 ,m4,c41 ,f4,r4,c4,p4 ,,wireless ,,possibilities ,by ,prof4 ,a4 ,m4 ,low ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company ,,daedalus ,,or ,science and the ,future ,a ,,paper ,,read ,,to ,,the ,,heretics1 ,,cambridge ,,on ,,february #d,,th1 #aibc4 ,,by ,j4 ,b4 ,s4 ,,haldane ,sir ,william ,dunn ,reader in ,bio-chemistry ,cambridge ,university ,illustration3 logo ,,new ,,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,,fifth ,,avenue ,copyright1 #aibd ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,dutton ,company ,all ,rights ,reserved ,first ,printing1 ,april1 #aibd ,second ,printing1 ,may1 #aibd ,third ,printing1 ,august1 #aibd ,fourth ,printing1 ,october1 #aibd ,fifth ,printing1 ,december1 #aibd ,sixth ,printing1 ,december1 #aibd ,seventh ,printing1 ,april1 #aibe ,eighth ,printing1 ,june1 #aibe ,ninth ,printing1 ,june1 #aibe ,printed in the ,united ,states of ,america ,,introduction ,i have slightly expanded certain parts of this paper since reading it4 ,it has therefore probably lost any unity which it may once have possessed4 ,it will be criticized for its undue and unpleasant emphasis on certain topics4 ,this is necessary if people are to be induced to think about them1 and it is the whole business of a university teacher to induce people to think4 ,,daedalus ,,or ,,science ,,and ,,the ,,future ,as ,i sit down to write these pages ,i can see before me two scenes from my experience of the late war4 ,the first is a glimpse of a forgotten battle of #aiae4 ,it has a curious suggestion of a rather bad cinema film4 ,through a blur of dust and fumes there appear1 quite suddenly1 great black and yellow masses of smoke which seem to be tearing up the surface of the earth and disintegrating the works of man with an almost visible hatred4 ,these form the chief parts of the picture1 but somewhere in the middle distance one can see a few irrelevant looking human figures1 and soon there are fewer4 ,it is hard to believe that these are the protagonists in the battle4 ,one would rather choose those huge substantive oily black masses which are so much more conspicuous1 and suppose that the men are in reality their servants1 and playing an inglorious1 subordinate1 and fatal part in the combat4 ,it is possible1 after all1 that this view is correct4 ,had ,i been privileged to watch a battle three years later1 the general aspect would have been very similar1 but there would have been fewer men and more shell-bursts4 ,there would probably1 however1 have been one very significant addition4 ,the men would have been running1 with mad terror in their eyes1 from gigantic steel slugs1 which were deliberately1 relentlessly1 and successfully pursuing them4 ,the other picture is of three ,europeans in ,india looking at a great new star in the milky way4 ,these were apparently all of the guests at a large dance who were interested in such matters4 ,amongst those who were at all competent to form views as to the origin of this cosmoclastic explosion1 the most popular theory attributed it to a collision between two stars1 or a star and a nebula4 ,there seem1 however1 to be at least two possible alternatives to this hypothesis4 ,perhaps it was the last judgment of some inhabited world1 perhaps a too successful experiment in induced radio-activity on the part of some of the dwellers there4 ,and perhaps also these two hypotheses are identical1 and what we were watching that evening was the detonation of a world on which too many men came out to look at the stars when they should have been dancing4 ,these two scenes suggest1 very briefly1 a part of the case against science4 ,has mankind released from the womb of matter a ,demogorgon which is already beginning to turn against him1 and may at any moment hurl him into the bottomless void8 ,or is ,samuel ,butler's even more horrible vision correct1 in which man becomes a mere parasite of machinery1 an appendage to the reproductive system of huge and complicated engines which will successively usurp his activities1 and end by ousting him from the mastery of this planet8 ,is the machine-minder engaged on repetition-work the goal and ideal to which humanity is tending8 ,perhaps a survey of the present trend of science may throw some light on these questions4 ,but first we may consider for a moment1 the question of whether there is any hope of stopping the progress of scientific research4 ,it is after all a very recent form of human activity1 and a sufficiently universal protest of mankind would be able to arrest it even now4 ,in the middle ages public opinion made it so dangerous as to be practically impossible1 and ,i am inclined to suspect that ,mr4 ,chesterton1 for example1 would not be averse to a repetition of this state of things4 ,the late ,m4 ,joseph ,reinach1 an able and not wholly illiberal thinker1 publicly advocated it4 ,i think1 however1 that so long as our present economic and national systems continue1 scientific research has little to fear4 ,capitalism1 though it may not always give the scientific worker a living wage1 will always protect him1 as being one of the geese which produce golden eggs for its table4 ,and competitive nationalism1 even if war is wholly or largely prevented1 will hardly forego the national advantages accruing from scientific research4 ,if we look at the other most probable alternative the prospect is little more hopeful4 ,in this country the labour party alone among political organizations includes the fostering of research in its official programme4 ,indeed as far as biological research is concerned labour may prove a better master than capitalism1 and there can be little doubt that it would be equally friendly to physical and chemical research if these came to lead immediately to shortened hours rather than to unemployment4 ,in particular there is perhaps reason to think that that form of sentimentalism which hampers medical research in this country by legislation would be less likely to flourish in a robust and selfish labour party of the ,australian type than in parties whose members enjoy the leisure which seems necessary to the development of such emotional luxuries4 ,it is of course possible that civilisation may collapse throughout the world as it has done in parts of ,russia1 and science with it1 but such an event would in all probability1 only postpone the problem for a few thousand years4 ,and even in ,russia we must not forget that first-rate scientific research is still being carried on4 ,the possibility has been suggested--,i do not know how seriously--that the progress of science may cease through lack of new problems for investigation4 ,mr4 ,chesterton in ,the ,napoleon of ,notting ,hill1 a book written fifteen years or so ago1 prophesied that hansom-cabs would still be in existence a hundred years hence owing to a cessation of invention4 ,within six years there was a hansom-cab in a museum1 and now that romantic but tardy vehicle is a memory like the trireme1 the velocipede1 and the #aijg ,voisin biplane4 ,i do not suggest that ,mr4 ,chesterton be dragged--a heavier ,hector--behind the last hansom-cab1 but ,i do contend that1 in so far as he claims to be a prophet rather than the voice of one crying in the wilderness1 he may be regarded as negligible for the purpose of our discussion4 ,i shall try shortly to show how far from complete are any branches of science at the present time4 ,but first a word on ,mr4 ,h4 ,g4 ,wells might not be out of place4 ,the very mention of the future suggests him4 ,there are two points which ,i wish to make about ,mr4 ,wells4 ,in the first place1 considered as a serious prophet1 as opposed to a fantastic romancer1 he is singularly modest4 ,in #aijb1 for example1 in a book called 8,anticipations10 he gave it as his personal opinion that by #aiej there would be heavier than air flying machines capable of practical use in war4 ,that1 said he1 was his own view1 though he was well aware that it would excite considerable ridicule4 ,i propose in this paper to make no prophecies rasher than the above4 ,the second and more important point is that he is a generation behind the time4 ,when his scientific ideas were formed1 flying and radiotelegraphy1 for example1 were scientific problems1 and the centre of scientific interest still lay in physics and chemistry4 ,now these are commercial problems1 and ,i believe that the centre of scientific interest lies in biology4 ,a generation hence it may be elsewhere1 and the views expressed in this paper will appear as modest1 conservative1 and unimaginative as do many of those of ,mr4 ,wells to-day4 ,i will only touch very briefly on the future of physics1 as the subject is inevitably technical4 ,at present physical theory is in a state of profound suspense4 ,this is primarily due to ,einstein--the greatest ,jew since ,jesus4 ,i have no doubt that ,einstein's name will still be remembered and revered when ,lloyd ,george1 ,foch1 and ,william ,hohenzollern share with ,charlie ,chaplin that ineluctable oblivion which awaits the uncreative mind4 ,i trust that ,i may be excused if ,i trespass from the strict subject of my theme to add my quota to the rather numerous misstatements of ,einstein's views which have appeared during the last few years4 ,ever since the time of ,berkeley it has been customary for the majority of metaphysicians to proclaim the ideality of ,time1 of ,space1 or of both4 ,but they soon made it clear that in spite of this1 time would continue to wait for no man1 and space to separate lovers4 ,the only practical consequence that they generally drew was that their own ethical and political views were somehow inherent in the structure of the universe4 ,the experimental proof or disproof of such deductions is difficult1 and--if the late war may be regarded as an experimental disproof of certain of ,hegel's political tenets--costly and unsatisfactory4 ,einstein1 so far from deducing a new decalogue1 has contented himself with deducing the consequences to space and time themselves of their ideality4 ,these are mostly too small to be measurable1 but some1 such as the deflection of light by the sun's gravitational field1 are susceptible of verification1 and have been verified4 ,the majority of scientific men are now being constrained by the evidence of these experiments to adopt a very extreme form of ,kantian idealism4 ,the ,kantian ,ding-an-sich is an eternal four-dimensional manifold1 which we perceive as space and time1 but what we regard as space and what as time is more or less fortuitous4 ,it is perhaps interesting to speculate on the practical consequences of ,einstein's discovery4 ,i do not doubt that he will be believed4 ,a prophet who can give signs in the heavens is always believed4 ,no one ever seriously questioned ,newton's theory after the return of ,halley's comet4 ,einstein has told us that space1 time1 and matter are shadows of the fifth dimension1 and the heavens have declared his glory4 ,in consequence ,kantian idealism will become the basal working hypothesis of the physicist and finally of all educated men1 just as materialism did after ,newton's day4 ,we may not call ourselves materialists1 but we do interpret the activities of the moon1 the ,thames1 influenza1 and aeroplanes in terms of matter4 ,our ancestors did not1 nor1 in all probability1 will our descendants4 ,the materialism 7whether conscious or subconscious does not very much matter7 of the last few generations has led to various results of practical importance1 such as sanitation1 ,marxian socialism1 and the right of an accused person to give evidence on his or her own behalf4 ,the reign of ,kantian idealism as the basal working hypothesis1 first of physics1 and then of every-day life1 will in all probability last for some centuries4 ,at the end of that time a similar step in advance will be taken4 ,einstein showed that experience cannot be interpreted in terms of space and time4 ,this was a well-known fact1 but so long as space and time did not break down in their own special sphere1 that of explaining the facts of motion1 physicists continued to believe in them1 or at any rate1 what was much more important1 to think in terms of them for practical purposes4 ,a time will however come 7as ,i believe7 when physiology will invade and destroy mathematical physics1 as the latter have destroyed geometry4 ,the basic metaphysical working hypothesis of science and practical life will then1 ,i think1 be something like ,bergsonian activism4 ,i do not for one moment suggest that this or any other metaphysical system has any claims whatever to finality4 ,meanwhile we are in for a few centuries during which many practical activities will probably be conducted on a basis1 not of materialism1 but of ,kantian idealism4 ,how will this affect our manners1 morals and politics8 ,frankly ,i do not know1 though ,i think the effect will be as great as that of ,newton's work1 which created most of the intellectual forces of the #ahth century4 ,the ,condorcets1 ,benthams1 and ,marxs of the future will ,i think be as ruthlessly critical of the metaphysics and ethics of their times as were their predecessors1 but not quite so sure of their own2 they will lack a certain heaviness of touch which we may note in ,utilitarianism and ,socialism4 ,they will recognise that perhaps in ethics as in physics1 there are so to speak fourth and fifth dimensions that show themselves by effects which1 like the perturbations of the planet ,mercury1 are hard to detect even in one generation1 but yet perhaps in the course of ages are quite as important as the three-dimensional phenomena4 ,if the quantum hypothesis is generally adopted even more radical alterations in our thinking will be necessary4 ,but ,i feel it premature even to suggest their direction in the present unsatisfactory state of quantum mechanics4 ,it may be that as ,poincare 7the other ,poincare7 suggested we shall be forced to conceive of all change as occurring in a series of clicks1 and all space as consisting of discrete points4 ,however this may be it is safe to say that a better knowledge of the properties of radiation will permit us to produce it in a more satisfactory manner than is at present possible4 ,almost all our present sources of light are hot bodies1 #ie of whose radiation is invisible4 ,to light a lamp as a source of light is about as wasteful of energy as to burn down one's house to roast one's pork4 ,it is a fairly safe prophecy that in #ej years light will cost about a fiftieth of its present price1 and there will be no more night in our cities4 ,the alternation of day and night is a check on the freedom of human activity which must go the way of other spatial and temporal checks4 ,in the long run ,i think that all that applied physics can do for us is to abolish these checks4 ,it enables us to possess more1 travel more1 and communicate more4 ,i shall not attempt to predict in detail the future developments of transport and communication4 ,they are only limited by the velocity of light4 ,we are working towards a condition when any two persons on earth will be able to be completely present to one another in not more than #a-bd of a second4 ,we shall never reach it1 but that is the limit which we shall approach indefinitely4 ,developments in this direction are tending to bring mankind more and more together1 to render life more and more complex1 artificial1 and rich in possibilities--to increase indefinitely man's powers for good and evil4 ,but there are two prerequisites for all progress of this kind1 namely continuous supplies of human and mechanical power4 ,as industries become more and more closely interwoven1 so that a dislocation of any one will paralyse a dozen others 7and that is the position towards which we are rapidly moving71 the ideal of the leaders of industry1 under no matter what economic system1 will be directed less and less to the indefinite increase of production in the intervals between such dislocations1 and more and more to stable and regular production1 even at the cost of reduction of profits and output while the industry is proceeding normally4 ,it is quite possible that capitalism itself may demand that the control of certain key industries be handed over completely to the workers in those industries1 simply in order to reduce the number of sporadic strikes in them4 ,and as industrial progress continues an ever larger number--perhaps the majority--of industries will become key industries4 ,the solution may be entirely different--we may well see a return to feudalism4 ,but the probability is that the problem will be solved4 ,this view may seem optimistic1 but it is more likely than the alternative thesis which may be briefly stated as follows3 8,no human society will ever succeed in producing a stable organization in which the majority of the population is employed otherwise than in agriculture1 animal-rearing1 hunting or fishing40 ,it took some thousands of years to produce the stable agricultural society which forms the basis of ,european life and whose morals we are too apt to regard as eternal truths4 ,it should take a shorter time to evolve a stable industrial society4 ,the people that do so will inherit the earth4 ,in sum1 ,i believe that the progress of science will ultimately make industrial injustice as self-destructive as it is now making international injustice4 ,as for the supplies of mechanical power1 it is axiomatic that the exhaustion of our coal and oil-fields is a matter of centuries only4 ,as it has often been assumed that their exhaustion would lead to the collapse of industrial civilization1 ,i may perhaps be pardoned if ,i give some of the reasons which lead me to doubt this proposition4 ,water-power is not1 ,i think1 a probable substitute1 on account of its small quantity1 seasonal fluctuation1 and sporadic distribution4 ,it may perhaps1 however1 shift the centre of industrial gravity to well-watered mountainous tracts such as the ,himalayan foothills1 ,british ,columbia1 and ,armenia4 ,ultimately we shall have to tap those intermittent but inexhaustible sources of power1 the wind and the sunlight4 ,the problem is simply one of storing their energy in a form as convenient as coal or petrol4 ,if a windmill in one's back garden could produce a hundredweight of coal daily 7and it can produce its equivalent in energy71 our coalmines would shut down to-morrow4 ,even to-morrow a cheap1 foolproof1 and durable storage battery may be invented1 which will enable us to transform the intermittent energy of the wind into continuous electric power4 ,personally1 ,i think that four hundred years hence the power question in ,england may be solved somewhat as follows3 ,the country will be covered with rows of metallic windmills working electric motors which in their turn supply current at a very high voltage to great electric mains4 ,at suitable distances1 there will be great power stations where during windy weather the surplus power will be used for the electrolytic decomposition of water into oxygen and hydrogen4 ,these gases will be liquefied1 and stored in vats1 vacuum jacketed reservoirs1 probably sunk in the ground4 ,if these reservoirs are sufficiently large1 the loss of liquid due to leakage inwards of heat will not be great2 thus the proportion evaporating daily from a reservoir #ajj yards square by #fj feet deep would not be #a-ajjj of that lost from a tank measuring two feet each way4 ,in times of calm1 the gases will be recombined in explosion motors working dynamos which produce electrical energy once more1 or more probably in oxidation cells4 ,liquid hydrogen is weight for weight the most efficient known method of storing energy1 as it gives about three times as much heat per pound as petrol4 ,on the other hand it is very light1 and bulk for bulk has only one-third of the efficiency of petrol4 ,this will not1 however1 detract from its use in aeroplanes1 where weight is more important than bulk4 ,these huge reservoirs of liquefied gases will enable wind energy to be stored1 so that it can be expended for industry1 transportation1 heating1 and lighting1 as desired4 ,the initial costs will be very considerable1 but the running expenses less than those of our present system4 ,among its more obvious advantages will be the fact that energy will be as cheap in one part of the country as another1 so that industry will be greatly decentralized2 and that no smoke or ash will be produced4 ,it is on some such lines as these1 ,i think1 that the problem will be solved4 ,it is essentially a practical problem1 and the exhaustion of our coalfields will furnish the necessary stimulus for its solution4 ,even now perhaps ,italy might achieve economic independence by the expenditure of a few million pounds upon research on the lines indicated4 ,i may add in parenthesis that1 on thermodynamical grounds which ,i can hardly summarize shortly1 ,i do not much believe in the commercial possibility of induced radio-activity4 ,before ,i turn to the principal part of my subject ,i should like to consider very briefly the influence on art and literature of our gradual conquest of space and time4 ,i think that the blame for the decay of certain arts rests primarily on the defective education of the artists4 ,an artist must understand his subject matter4 ,at present not a single competent poet and very few painters and etchers outside the ,glasgow ,school understand industrial life1 and ,i believe that there is only one architect of any real originality who understands the possibilities of ferro-concrete4 ,i do not know his name1 but he produced in ,soissons before the war a market-place with the dignity and daring of an ancient ,egyptian temple4 ,if ,i knew that he had been entrusted with the rebuilding of ,soissons1 ,i could not regret its destruction4 ,now if we want poets to interpret physical science as ,milton and ,shelley did 7,shelley and ,keats were the last ,english poets who were at all up-to-date in their chemical knowledge71 we must see that our possible poets are instructed1 as their masters were1 in science and economics4 ,i am absolutely convinced that science is vastly more stimulating to the imagination than are the classics1 but the products of this stimulus do not normally see the light because scientific men as a class are devoid of any perception of literary form4 ,when they can express themselves we get a ,butler or a ,norman ,douglas4 ,not until our poets are once more drawn from the educated classes 7,i speak as a scientist71 will they appeal to the average man by showing him the beauty in his own life as ,homer and ,virgil appealed to the street urchins who scrawled their verses on the walls of ,pompeii4 ,and if we must educate our poets and artists in science1 we must educate our masters1 labour and capital1 in art4 ,personally ,i believe that we may have good hopes of both4 ,the capitalist's idea of art in industry at present tends to limit itself to painting green and white stripes on the front of his factories in certain cases4 ,this is a primitive type of decoration1 but it has1 ,i think1 the root of the matter in it4 ,before long someone may discover that frescoes inside a factory increase the average efficiency of the worker #a4jc and art will become a commercial proposition once more4 ,even now it is being discovered that artistic advertising often pays4 ,similarly ,i do not doubt that labour will come to find that it cannot live by bread 7or shall we say bread and beer7 alone4 ,but it can hardly be expected to make this discovery until it is assured of its supply of bread and beer4 ,applied chemistry has introduced into human life no radical novelty of the importance of the heat-engine or the telegraph4 ,it has vastly increased the production of various types of substance the most important being metals4 ,but there were explosives1 dyes1 and drugs before chemistry was a science1 and its progress along present lines will mainly alter life in a quantitative manner4 ,perhaps the biggest problems before it in metallurgy are the utilization of low-grade iron ores1 and the production of aluminium from clay1 which contains up to #bd of that metal4 ,i do not think that even when this is accomplished aluminium will oust iron and steel as they ousted bronze and flint1 but it and its alloys will certainly take the second1 and possibly the first place as industrial metals4 ,there is just a hope1 though ,i fear little more1 that a large-scale production of perfume may form the basis of a re-education of our rather rudimentary sense of smell1 but the most interesting possibilities of chemical invention are very clearly in biological chemistry1 and for the following reasons4 ,desirable substances fall on the whole into two classes4 ,the first are desirable on account of their physical or chemical properties1 for example iron1 wood or glass1 which we use as a part of systems such as fires1 houses1 or razors1 which procure us certain benefits4 ,the second are desirable on account of their physiological properties4 ,such substances include foods1 drinks1 tobacco1 and drugs4 ,colours and scents occupy an intermediate position4 ,the value of this second class of substances rests on a quite special relationship to the human organism which depends in the most intimate way on the constitution of the latter1 and has not in general been at all fully explained in terms of physics and chemistry4 ,for example fires can be made of coal or peat instead of wood1 but no other chemical substance has the same effect as water or alcohol4 ,so unless a chemical substance has new physiological properties its production will merely serve to improve or make possible some appliance whose use lies within the sphere of applied physics4 ,within historical time two and only two substances of the second class have come into universal use in ,europe1 namely caffeine and nicotine1 which were introduced into this country in the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries4 ,there are others of immense importance1 such as chloroform and quinine1 but their use is not universal4 ,but coffee1 tea1 and tobacco1 with alcohol1 are as much a part of normal life as food and water4 ,there is no reason to suppose that the list of such substances is exhausted4 ,during the war ,embden#a the professor of physiology in ,frankfurt ,university discovered that a dose of about #g grams of acid sodium phosphate increases a man's capacity for prolonged muscular work by about #bj1 and probably aids in prolonged mental work4 ,it can be taken over very lengthy periods4 ,a group of coal-miners took it for nine months on end with very great effect on their output4 ,it has no after-effects like those of alcohol1 and one cannot take a serious overdose as it merely acts as a purgative4 7,they gave certain ,stosstruppen too much67 ,thousands of people in ,germany take it habitually4 ,it is possible that it may become as normal a beverage as coffee or tea4 ,it costs #a_/i per pound1 or d4 per dose4 ,the vast majority of chemical substances with physiological properties are unsuited for daily use like castor oil1 or dangerous like morphine2 probably none are without bad effects in certain cases4 ,those which are susceptible of daily use are of the utmost social importance4 ,tobacco has slight but definite effects on the character4 ,coffee-houses in ,london in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries and cafes in modern ,europe were and are civilizing influences of incalculable value4 ,but these substances are profoundly obnoxious to a certain type of mind4 ,it would perhaps be fantastic to suggest that ,sir ,walter ,raleigh owed his death in part to his sovereign's objection to tobacco4 ,but if he is not its protomartyr it is at least probable that more men have died for tobacco smoking at the hands of ,sikhs1 ,senussis1 and ,wahabis1 whose religions forbid this practice1 than died under the ,roman empire for professing ,christianity4 ,should it ever be generally realised that temperance is a mean we may expect that mankind will ultimately have at its disposal a vast array of substances like wine1 coffee1 and tobacco1 whose intelligent use can add to the amenity of life and promote the expression of man's higher faculties4 ,but before that day comes chemistry will be applied to the production of a still more important group of physiologically active substances1 namely foods4 ,the facts about food are rather curious4 ,everyone knows that food is ultimately produced by plants1 though we may get it at second or third hand if we eat animals or their products4 ,but the average plant turns most of its sugar not into starch which is digestible1 but into cellulose which is not1 but forms its woody skeleton4 ,the hoofed animals have dealt with this problem in their own way1 by turning their bellies into vast hives of bacteria that attack cellulose1 and on whose by-products they live4 ,we have got to do the same1 but outside our bodies4 ,it may be done on chemical lines4 ,irvine has obtained a #ie yield of sugar from cellulose1 but at a prohibitive cost4 ,or we may use micro-organisms1 but in any case within the next century sugar and starch will be about as cheap as sawdust4 ,many of our foodstuffs1 including the proteins1 we shall probably build up from simpler sources such as coal and atmospheric nitrogen4 ,i should be inclined to allow #abj years1 but not much more1 before a completely satisfactory diet can be produced in this way on a commercial scale4 ,this will mean that agriculture will become a luxury1 and that mankind will be completely urbanized4 ,personally ,i do not regret the probable disappearance of the agricultural labourer in favour of the factory worker1 who seems to me a higher type of person from most points of view4 ,human progress in historical time has been the progress of cities dragging a reluctant countryside in their wake4 ,synthetic food will substitute the flower garden and the factory for the dunghill and the slaughterhouse1 and make the city at last self-sufficient4 ,there's many a strong farmer whose heart would break in two ,if he could see the townland that we are riding to4 ,boughs have their fruit and blossom at all times of the year1 ,rivers are running over with red beer and brown beer1 ,an old man plays the bagpipes in a golden and silver wood1 ,queens1 their eyes blue like the ice1 are dancing in a crowd4 ,i should have liked had time allowed to have added my quota to the speculations which have been made with regard to inter-planetary communication4 ,whether this is possible ,i can form no conjecture2 that it will be attempted ,i have no doubt whatever4 ,with regard to the application of biology to human life1 the average prophet appears to content himself with considerable if rather rudimentary progress in medicine and surgery1 some improvements in domestic plants and animals1 and possibly the introduction of a little eugenics4 ,the eugenic official1 a compound1 it would appear1 of the policeman1 the priest and the procurer1 is to hale us off at suitable intervals to the local temple of ,venus ,genetrix with a partner chosen1 one gathers1 by something of the nature of a glorified medical board4 ,to this prophecy ,i should reply that it proceeds from a type of mind as lacking in originality as in knowledge of human nature4 ,marriage 8by numbers01 so to speak1 was a comparatively novel idea when proposed by ,plato #b1cjj years ago1 but it has already actually been practised in various places1 notably among the subjects of the ,jesuits in ,paraguay4 ,it is moreover likely1 as we shall see1 that the ends proposed by the eugenist will be attained in a very different manner4 ,but before we proceed to prophecy ,i should like to turn back to the past and examine very briefly the half dozen or so important biological inventions which have already been made4 ,by a biological invention ,i mean the establishment of a new relationship between man and other animals or plants1 or between different human beings1 provided that such relationship is one which comes primarily under the domain of biology rather than physics1 psychology or ethics4 ,of the biological inventions of the past1 four were made before the dawn of history4 ,i refer to the domestication of animals1 the domestication of plants1 the domestication of fungi for the production of alcohol1 and to a fourth invention1 which ,i believe was of more ultimate and far-reaching importance than any of these1 since it altered the path of sexual selection1 focussed the attention of man as a lover upon woman's face and breasts1 and changed our idea of beauty from the steatopygous ,hottentot to the modern ,european1 from the ,venus of ,brassempouy to the ,venus of ,milo4 ,there are certain races which have not yet made this last invention4 ,and in our own day two more have been made1 namely bactericide and the artificial control of conception4 ,the first point that we may notice about these inventions is that they have all had a profound emotional and ethical effect4 ,of the four earlier there is not one which has not formed the basis of a religion4 ,i do not know what strange god will have the hardihood to adopt ,charles ,bradlaugh and ,annie ,besant in the place of ,triptolemus and ,noah1 but one may remark that it is impossible to keep religion out of any discussion of the practices which they popularized4 ,the second point is perhaps harder to express4 ,the chemical or physical inventor is always a ,prometheus4 ,there is no great invention1 from fire to flying1 which has not been hailed as an insult to some god4 ,but if every physical and chemical invention is a blasphemy1 every biological invention is a perversion4 ,there is hardly one which1 on first being brought to the notice of an observer from any nation which had not previously heard of their existence1 would not appear to him as indecent and unnatural4 ,consider so simple and time-honoured a process as the milking of a cow4 ,the milk which should have been an intimate and almost sacramental bond between mother and child is elicited by the deft fingers of a milk-maid1 and drunk1 cooked1 or even allowed to rot into cheese4 ,we have only to imagine ourselves as drinking any of its other secretions1 in order to realise the radical indecency of our relation to the cow4#b ,no less disgusting a priori is the process of corruption which yields our wine and beer4 ,but in actual fact the processes of milking and of the making and drinking beer appear to us profoundly natural2 they have even tended to develop a ritual of their own whose infraction nowadays has a certain air of impropriety4 ,there is something slightly disgusting in the idea of milking a cow electrically or drinking beer out of tea-cups4 ,and all this of course applies much more strongly to the sexual act4 ,i fancy that the sentimental interest attaching to ,prometheus has unduly distracted our attention from the far more interesting figure of ,daedalus4 ,it is with infinite relief that amidst a welter of heroes armed with gorgon's heads or protected by ,stygian baptisms the student of ,greek mythology comes across the first modern man4 ,beginning as a realistic sculptor 7he was the first to produce statues whose feet were separated7 it was natural that he should proceed to the construction of an image of ,aphrodite whose limbs were activated by quicksilver4 ,after this his interest inevitably turned to biological problems1 and it is safe to say that posterity has never equalled his only recorded success in experimental genetics4 ,had the housing and feeding of the ,minotaur been less expensive it is probable that ,daedalus would have anticipated ,mendel4 ,but ,minos held that a labyrinth and an annual provision of #ej youths and #ej virgins were excessive as an endowment for research1 and in order to escape from his ruthless economies ,daedalus was forced to invent the art of flying4 ,minos pursued him to ,sicily and was slain there4 ,save for his valuable invention of glue1 little else is known of ,daedalus4 ,but it is most significant that1 although he was responsible for the death of ,zeus' son ,minos he was neither smitten by a thunderbolt1 chained to a rock1 nor pursued by furies4 ,still less did any of the rather numerous visitors to ,hades discover him either in ,elysium or ,tartarus4 ,we can hardly imagine him as a member of the throng of shades who besieged ,charon's ferry like sheep at a gap4 ,he was the first to demonstrate that the scientific worker is not concerned with gods4 ,the unconscious mind of the early ,greeks1 who focussed in this amazing figure the dim traditions of ,minoan science1 was presumably aware of this fact4 ,the most monstrous and unnatural action in all human legend was unpunished in this world or the next4 ,even the death of ,icarus must have weighed lightly with a man who had already been banished from ,athens for the murder of his nephew4 ,but if he escaped the vengeance of the gods he has been exposed to the universal and agelong reprobation of a humanity to whom biological inventions are abhorrent1 with one very significant exception4 ,socrates was proud to claim him as an ancestor4 ,the biological invention then tends to begin as a perversion and end as a ritual supported by unquestioned beliefs and prejudices4 ,even now surgical cleanliness is developing its rites and its dogmas1 which1 it may be remarked1 are accepted most religiously by women4 ,with the above facts in your minds ,i would ask you to excuse what at first sight might appear improbable or indecent in any speculations which appear below1 and to dismiss from your minds the belief that biology will consist merely in physical and chemical discoveries as applied to men1 animals and plants4 ,i say advisedly 8will consist01 for we are at present almost completely ignorant of biology1 a fact which often escapes the notice of biologists1 and renders them too presumptuous in their estimates of the present position of their science1 too modest in their claims for its future4 ,if for example we take a typical case of applied biology such as the detection and destruction of the cholera bacillus1 we find a great deal of science involved1 but the only purely biological principle is the very important but not very profound one that some bacteria kill some men4 ,the really scientific parts of the process are the optical and chemical methods involved in the magnification1 staining and killing of the bacilli4 ,when on the other hand we come to immunization to typhoid we find certain purely biological principles involved which are neither simple nor at all completely understood4 ,actually biological theory consists of some ancient but not very easily stated truths about organisms in general1 due largely to ,aristotle1 ,hippocrates and ,harvey1 a few great principles such as those formulated by ,darwin1 ,mayer1 ,claude ,bernard1 and ,mendel1 and a vast mass of facts about individual organisms and their parts which are still awaiting adequate generalization4 ,darwin's results are beginning to be appreciated1 with alarming effects on certain types of religion1 those of ,weismann and ,mendel will be digested in the course of the present century1 and are going to affect political and philosophical theories almost equally profoundly4 ,i need hardly say that these latter results deal with the question of reproduction and heredity4 ,we may expect1 moreover1 as time goes on1 that a series of shocks of the type of ,darwinism will be given to established opinions on all sorts of subjects4 ,one cannot suggest in detail what these shocks will be1 but since the opinions on which they will impinge are deep-seated and irrational1 they will come upon us and our descendants with the same air of presumption and indecency with which the view that we are descended from monkeys came to our grandfathers4 ,but owing to man's fortunate capacity for thinking in watertight 7or rather idea-tight7 compartments1 they will probably not have immediate and disruptive effects upon society any more than ,darwinism had4 ,far more profound will be the effect of the practical applications of biology4 ,i believe that the progress of medicine has had almost1 if not quite1 as deep an effect on society in ,western ,europe as the industrial revolution4 ,apart from the important social consequences which have flowed from the partial substitution of the doctor for the priest1 its net result has been that whereas four hundred years ago most people died in childhood1 they now live on an average1 7apart from the late war71 until forty-five4 ,bad as our urban conditions often are1 there is not a slum in the country which has a third of the infantile death-rate of the royal family in the middle ages4 ,largely as a result of this religion has come to lay less and less stress on a good death1 and more and more on a good life1 and its whole outlook has gradually changed in consequence4 ,death has receded so far into the background of our normal thoughts that when we came into somewhat close contact with it during the war most of us failed completely to take it seriously4 ,similarly institutions which were based on short lives have almost wholly collapsed4 ,for example the ,english land system postulated that the landowner should die aged about forty1 and be succeeded by his eldest son1 aged about twenty4 ,the son had spent most of his life on the estate1 and had few interests outside it4 ,he managed it at least as well as anyone else could have done4 ,nowadays the father dodders on till about eighty1 and is generally incompetent for ten years before his death4 ,his son succeeds him at the age of fifty or so1 by which time he may be a fairly competent colonel or stockbroker1 but cannot hope to learn the art of managing an estate4 ,in consequence he either hands it over to an agent who is deprived of initiative and often corrupt1 or runs it unscientifically1 gets a low return1 and ascribes to ,bolshevism what he should really lay at the door of vaccination4 ,but to return1 if ,i may use the expression1 to the future1 ,i am going to suggest a few obvious developments which seem probable in the present state of biological science1 without assuming any great new generalizations of the type of ,darwinism4 ,i have the very best precedents for introducing a myth at this point1 so perhaps ,i may be excused if ,i reproduce some extracts from an essay on the influence of biology on history during the #bjth century which will 7it is hoped7 be read by a rather stupid undergraduate member of this university to his supervisor during his first term #aej years hence4 8,as early as the first decade of the twentieth century we find a conscious attempt at the application of biology to politics in the so-called eugenic movement04 ,a number of earnest persons1 having discovered the existence of biology1 attempted to apply it in its then very crude condition to the production of a race of super-men1 and in certain countries managed to carry a good deal of legislation4 ,they appear to have managed to prevent the transmission of a good deal of syphilis1 insanity1 and the like1 and they certainly succeeded in producing the most violent opposition and hatred amongst the classes whom they somewhat gratuitously regarded as undesirable parents4 7,there was even a rebellion in ,nebraska74 ,however1 they undoubtedly prepared public opinion for what was to come1 and so far served a useful purpose4 ,far more important was the progress in medicine which practically abolished infectious diseases in those countries which were prepared to tolerate the requisite amount of state interference in private life1 and finally1 after the league's ordinance of #aieh1 all over the world2 though owing to ,hindu opposition1 parts of ,india were still quite unhealthy up to #aihj or so4 ,but from a wider point of view the most important biological work in the first third of the century was in experimental zoology and botany4 ,when we consider that in #aiab ,morgan had located several ,mendelian factors in the nucleus of ,drosophila1 and modified its sex-ratio1 while ,marmorek had taught a harmless bacillus to kill guinea-pigs1 and finally in #aiac ,brachet had grown rabbit embryos in serum for some days1 it is remarkable how little the scientific workers of that time1 and a fortiori the general public1 seem to have foreseen the practical bearing of such results4 ,as a matter of fact it was not until #aidj that ,selkovski invented the purple alga ,porphyrococcus fixator which was to have so great an effect on the world's history4 ,in the #ej years before this date the world's average wheat yield per hectare had been approximately doubled1 partly by the application of various chemical manures1 but most of all by the results of systematic crossing work with different races2 there was however little prospect of further advance on any of these lines4 ,porphyrococcus is an enormously efficient nitrogen-fixer and will grow in almost any climate where there are water and traces of potash and phosphates in the soil1 obtaining its nitrogen from the air4 ,it has about the effect in four days that a crop of vetches would have had in a year4 ,it could not1 of course have been produced in the course of nature1 as its immediate ancestors would only grow in artificial media and could not have survived outside a laboratory4 ,wherever nitrogen was the principal limiting factor to plant growth it doubled the yield of wheat1 and quadrupled the value of grass land for grazing purposes4 ,the enormous fall in food prices and the ruin of purely agricultural states was of course one of the chief causes of the disastrous events of #aidc and #aidd4 ,the food glut was also greatly accentuated when in #aidb the ,q strain of ,porphyrococcus escaped into the sea and multiplied with enormous rapidity4 ,indeed for two months the surface of the tropical ,atlantic set to a jelly1 with disastrous results to the weather of ,europe4 ,when certain of the plankton organisms developed ferments capable of digesting it the increase of the fish population of the seas was so great as to make fish the universal good that it is now1 and to render even ,england self-supporting in respect of food4 ,so great was the prosperity in ,england that in that year the coal-miner's union entered its first horse for the ,derby 7a horse-race which still took place annually at that time74 ,it was of course as the result of its invasion by ,porphyrococcus that the sea assumed the intense purple colour which seems so natural to us1 but which so distressed the more aesthetically minded of our great grand-parents who witnessed the change4 ,it is certainly curious to us to read of the sea as having been green or blue4 ,i need not detail the work of ,ferguson and ,rahmatullah who in #aieg produced the lichen which has bound the drifting sand of the world's deserts 7for it was merely a continuation of that of ,selkovski71 nor yet the story of how the agricultural countries dealt with their unemployment by huge socialistic windpower schemes4 ,it was in #aiea that ,dupont and ,schwarz produced the first ectogenetic child4 ,as early as #aija ,heape had transferred embryo rabbits from one female to another1 in #aibe ,haldane had grown embryonic rats in serum for ten days1 but had failed to carry the process to its conclusion1 and it was not till #aidj that ,clark succeeded with the pig1 using ,kehlmann's solution as medium4 ,dupont and ,schwarz obtained a fresh ovary from a woman who was the victim of an aeroplane accident1 and kept it living in their medium for five years4 ,they obtained several eggs from it and fertilized them successfully1 but the problem of the nutrition and support of the emo was more difficult1 and was only solved in the fourth year4 ,now that the technique is fully developed1 we can take an ovary from a woman1 and keep it growing in a suitable fluid for as long as twenty years1 producing a fresh ovum each month1 of which #ij per cent can be fertilized1 and the embryos grown successfully for nine months1 and then brought out into the air4 ,schwarz never got such good results1 but the news of his first success caused an unprecedented sensation throughout the entire world1 for the birth-rate was already less than the death-rate in most civilised countries4 ,france was the first country to adopt ectogenesis officially1 and by #aifh was producing #fj1jjj children annually by this method4 ,in most countries the opposition was far stronger1 and was intensified by the ,papal ,bull 8,nunquam prius audito01 and the similar fetwa of the ,khalif1 both of which appeared in #aifj4 ,as we know ectogenesis is now universal1 and in this country less than #cj per cent of children are now born of woman4 ,the effect on human psychology and social life of the separation of sexual love and reproduction which was begun in the #aith century and completed in the #bjth is by no means wholly satisfactory4 ,the old family life had certainly a good deal to commend it1 and although nowadays we bring on lactation in women by injection of placentin as a routine1 and thus conserve much of what was best in the former instinctive cycle1 we must admit that in certain respects our great grand-parents had the advantage of us4 ,on the other hand it is generally admitted that the effects of selection have more than counterbalanced these evils4 ,the small proportion of men and women who are selected as ancestors for the next generation are so undoubtedly superior to the average that the advance in each generation in any single respect1 from the increased output of first-class music to the decreased convictions for theft1 is very startling4 ,had it not been for ectogenesis there can be little doubt that civilization would have collapsed within a measurable time owing to the greater fertility of the less desirable members of the population in almost all countries4 ,it is perhaps fortunate that the process of becoming an ectogenetic mother of the next generation involves an operation which is somewhat unpleasant1 though now no longer disfiguring or dangerous1 and never physiologically injurious1 and is therefore an honour but by no means a pleasure4 ,had this not been the case1 it is perfectly possible that popular opposition would have proved too strong for the selectionist movement4 ,as it was the opposition was very fierce1 and characteristically enough this country only adopted its present rather stringent standard of selection a generation later than ,germany1 though it is now perhaps more advanced than any other country in this respect4 ,the advantages of thorough-going selection1 have1 however1 proved to be enormous4 8,the question of the ideal sex-ratio is still a matter of violent discussion1 but the modern reaction towards equality is certainly strong40 ,our essayist would then perhaps go on to discuss some far more radical advances made about #aiij1 but ,i have only quoted his account of the earlier applications of biology4 ,the second appears to me to be neither impossible nor improbable1 but it has those features which we saw above to be characteristic of biological inventions4 ,if reproduction is once completely separated from sexual love mankind will be free in an altogether new sense4 ,at present the national character is changing slowly according to quite unknown laws4 ,the problem of politics is to find institutions suitable to it4 ,in the future perhaps it may be possible by selective breeding to change character as quickly as institutions4 ,i can foresee the election placards of #cjj years hence1 if such quaint political methods survive1 which is perhaps improbable1 8,vote for ,smith and more musicians01 8,vote for ,o',leary and more girls01 or perhaps finally 8,vote for ,macpherson and a prehensile tail for your great-grandchildren04 ,we can already alter animal species to an enormous extent1 and it seems only a question of time before we shall be able to apply the same principles to our own4 ,i suggest then that biology will probably be applied on lines roughly resembling the above4 ,there are perhaps equally great possibilities in the way of the direct improvement of the individual1 as we come to know more of the physiological obstacles to the development of different faculties4 ,but at present we can only guess at the nature of these obstacles1 and the line of attack suggested in the myth is the one which seems most obvious to a ,darwinian4 ,we already know however that many of our spiritual faculties can only be manifested if certain glands1 notably the thyroid and sex-glands1 are functioning properly1 and that very minute changes in such glands affect the character greatly4 ,as our knowledge of this subject increases we may be able1 for example1 to control our passions by some more direct method than fasting and flagellation1 to stimulate our imagination by some reagent with less after-effects than alcohol1 to deal with perverted instincts by physiology rather than prison4 ,conversely there will inevitably arise possibilities of new vices similar to but even more profound than those opened up by the pharmacological discoveries of the #aith century4 ,the recent history of medicine is as follows4 ,until about #ahgj medicine was largely founded on physiology1 or1 as the ,scotch called it 8,institutes of medicine04 ,disease was looked at from the point of view of the patient1 as injuries still are4 ,pasteur's discovery of the nature of infectious disease transformed the whole outlook1 and made it possible to abolish one group of diseases4 ,but it also diverted scientific medicine from its former path1 and it is probable that1 were bacteria unknown1 though many more people would die of sepsis and typhoid1 we should be better able to cope with kidney disease and cancer4 ,certain diseases such as cancer are probably not due to specific organisms1 whilst others such as phthisis are due to forms which are fairly harmless to the average person1 but attack others for unknown reasons4 ,we are not likely to deal with them effectually on ,pasteur's lines1 we must divert our view from the micro-organism to the patient4 ,where the doctor cannot deal with the former he can often keep the patient alive long enough to be able to do so himself4 ,and here he has to rely largely on a knowledge of physiology4 ,i do not say that a physiologist will discover how to prevent cancer4 ,pasteur started life as a crystallographer4 ,but whoever does so is likely at least to make use of physiological data on a large-scale4 ,the abolition of disease will make death a physiological event like sleep4 ,a generation that has lived together will die together4 ,i suspect that man's desire for a future life is largely due to two causes1 a feeling that most lives are incomplete1 and a desire to meet friends from whom we have parted prematurely4 ,a gentle decline into the grave at the end of a completed life's work will largely do away with the first1 and our contemporaries will rarely leave us sorrowing for long4 ,old age is perhaps harder on women than on men4 ,they live longer1 but their life is too often marred by the sudden change which generally overtakes them between forty and fifty1 and sometimes leaves them a prey to disease1 though it may improve their health4 ,this change seems to be due to a sudden failure of a definite chemical substance produced by the ovary4 ,when we can isolate and synthesize this body we shall be able to prolong a woman's youth1 and allow her to age as gradually as the average man4 ,psychology is hardly a science yet4 ,like biology it has arrived at certain generalizations of a rather abstract and philosophic character1 but these are still to some extent matters of controversy4 ,and though a vast number of most important empirical facts are known1 only a few great generalizations from them--such as the existence of the subconscious mind--have yet been made4 ,but anyone who has seen even a single example of the power of hypnotism and suggestion must realise that the face of the world and the possibilities of existence will be totally altered when we can control their effects and standardize their application1 as has been possible1 for example1 with drugs which were once regarded as equally magical4 ,infinitely greater1 of course1 would be the results of the opening up of systematic communication with spiritual beings in another world1 which is claimed as a scientific possibility4 ,spiritualism is already ,christianity's most formidable enemy1 and we have no data which allows us to estimate the probable effect on man of a religion whose dogmas are a matter of experiment1 whose mysteries are prosaic as electric lighting1 whose ethics are based on the observed results in the next world of a good or bad life in this4 ,yet that is the prospect before us if spiritualism obtains the scientific verification which it is now demanding1 not perhaps with great success4 ,i have only been able1 in the time at my disposal1 to traverse a very few of the possible fields of scientific advance4 ,if ,i have convinced anyone present that science has still a good deal up her sleeve1 and that of a sufficiently startling character1 ,i shall be amply repaid4 ,if anything ,i have said appears to be of a gratuitously disgusting nature1 ,i would reply that certain phenomena of normal life do seem to many to be of that nature1 and that these phenomena are of the utmost scientific and practical importance4 ,i have tried to show why ,i believe that the biologist is the most romantic figure on earth at the present day4 ,at first sight he seems to be just a poor little scrubby underpaid man1 groping blindly amid the mazes of the ultra-microscopic1 engaging in bitter and lifelong quarrels over the nephridia of flatworms1 waking perhaps one morning to find that someone whose name he has never heard has demolished by a few crucial experiments the work which he had hoped would render him immortal4 ,there is real tragedy in his life1 but he knows that he has a responsibility which he dare not disclaim1 and he is urged on1 apart from all utilitarian considerations1 by something or someone which he feels to be higher than himself4 ,the conservative has but little to fear from the man whose reason is the servant of his passions1 but let him beware of him in whom reason has become the greatest and most terrible of the passions4 ,these are the wreckers of outworn empires and civilisations1 doubters1 disintegrators1 deicides4 ,in the past they have been1 in general1 men like ,voltaire1 ,bentham1 ,thales1 ,marx1 and very possibly the divine ,julius1 but ,i think that ,darwin furnishes an example of the same relentlessness of reason in the field of science4 ,i suspect that as it becomes clear that at present reason not only has a freer play in science than elsewhere1 but can produce as great effects on the world through science as through politics1 philosophy1 or literature1 there will be more ,darwins4 ,such men are interested primarily in truth as such1 but they can hardly be quite uninterested in what will happen when they throw down their dragon's teeth into the world4 ,i do not say that biologists as a general rule try to imagine in any detail the future applications of their science4 ,the central problems of life for them may be the relationship between the echinoderms and brachiopods1 and the attempt to live on their salaries4 ,they do not see themselves as sinister and revolutionary figures4 ,they have no time to dream4 ,but ,i suspect that more of them dream than would care to confess it4 ,i have given above a very small selection from my dreams4 ,perhaps they are bad dreams4 ,it is of course almost hopeless to attempt any very exact prophecies as to how in detail scientific knowledge is going to revolutionize human life1 but ,i believe that it will continue to do so1 and even more profoundly than ,i have suggested4 ,and though personally ,i am ,victorian enough in my sympathies to hope that after all family life1 for example1 may be spared1 ,i can only reiterate that not one of the practical advances which ,i have predicted is not already foreshadowed by recent scientific work4 ,if a chemist or physicist living at the end of the seventeenth century had been asked to predict the future application of his science he would doubtless have made many laughable errors in the best ,laputan style1 but he would have been certain that it would somehow be applied1 and his faith would have been justified4 ,we must regard science then from three points of view4 ,first it is the free activity of man's divine faculties of reason and imagination4 ,secondly it is the answer of the few to the demands of the many for wealth1 comfort and victory1 for 8 ' 10 gifts which it will grant only in exchange for peace1 security and stagnation4 ,finally it is man's gradual conquest1 first of space and time1 then of matter as such1 then of his own body and those of other living beings1 and finally the subjugation of the dark and evil elements in his own soul4 ,none of these conquests will ever be complete1 but all1 ,i believe will be progressive4 ,the question of what he will do with these powers is essentially a question for religion and aesthetic4 ,it may be urged that they are only fit to be placed in the hands of a being who has learned to control himself1 and that man armed with science is like a baby with a box of matches4 ,the answer to this contention may1 ,i think1 be found in the daily papers4 ,for scores of centuries idealists had urged that wars must cease and all the earth be united under one rule4 ,as long as any other alternative was possible it was persisted in4 ,the events of the last nine years constituted a reductio ad absurdum of war1 but when we ask who was responsible for this we shall find that it was not the visionaries but men like ,black1 ,kekule1 and ,langley1 who enlarged man's power over nature until he was forced by the inexorable logic of facts to form the nucleus of an international government4 ,we have already reacted against the frame of mind that engendered the league of nations1 but we have not reacted at all completely4 ,the league exists and is working1 and in every country on earth there are many people1 and ordinary normal people1 who favour the idea in one form or another of a world-state4 ,i do not suggest that a world-state will arise from the present league--or for the matter of that from the third international4 ,i merely observe that there is a widespread and organized desire for such an institution1 and several possible nuclei for it4 ,it may take another world-war or two to convert the majority4 ,the prospect of the next world-war has at least this satisfactory element4 ,in the late war the most rabid nationalists were to be found well behind the front line4 ,in the next war no one will be behind the front line4 ,it will be brought home to all whom it may concern that war is a very dirty business4 ,no doubt there is a fair chance that the possibility of human organization on a planetary scale may be rendered impossible by such a war4 ,if so mankind will probably have to wait for a couple of thousand years for another opportunity4 ,but to the student of geology such a period is negligible4 ,it took man #bej1jjj years to transcend the hunting pack4 ,it will not take him so long to transcend the nation4 ,i think then that the tendency of applied science is to magnify injustices until they become too intolerable to be borne1 and the average man whom all the prophets and poets could not move1 turns at last and extinguishes the evil at its source4 ,marx' theory of industrial evolution is a particular example of this tendency1 though it does not in the least follow that his somewhat artificial solution of the problem will be adopted4 ,it is probable that biological progress will prove to be as incompatible with certain of our social evils as industrial progress has proved to be with war or certain systems of private ownership4 ,to take a concrete example it is clear that the second biological invention considered by my future essayist would be intolerable in conjunction with our present system of relations between classes and sexes4 ,moral progress is so difficult that ,i think any developments are to be welcomed which present it as the naked alternative to destruction1 no matter how horrible may be the stimulus which is necessary before man will take the moral step in question4 ,to sum up then1 science is as yet in its infancy1 and we can foretell little of the future save that the thing that has not been is the thing that shall be2 that no beliefs1 no values1 no institutions are safe4 ,so far from being an isolated phenomenon the late war is only an example of the disruptive results that we may constantly expect from the progress of science4 ,the future will be no primrose path4 ,it will have its own problems4 ,some will be the secular problems of the past1 giant flowers of evil blossoming at last to their own destruction4 ,others will be wholly new4 ,whether in the end man will survive his accessions of power we cannot tell4 ,but the problem is no new one4 ,it is the old paradox of freedom re-enacted with mankind for actor and the earth for stage4 ,to those who believe in the divinity of that part of man which aspires after knowledge for its own sake1 who are able1 in the words of ,boethius3 8te cernere finis1 8,principium1 vector1 dux1 semita1 terminus idem04 the prospect will appear most hopeful4 ,but it is only hopeful if mankind can adjust its morality to its powers4 ,if we can succeed in this1 then science holds in her hands one at least of the keys to the thorny and arduous path of moral progress1 then3 8,per cruciamina leti1 8,via panditur ardua justis1 8,et ad astra doloribus itur04 ,that is possibly a correct large-scale view1 but it is only for short periods that one can take views of history sufficiently broad to render the fate of one's own generation irrelevant4 ,the scientific worker is brought up with the moral values of his neighbours4 ,he is perhaps fortunate if he does not realize that it is his destiny to turn good into evil4 ,the moral and physical 7though not the intellectual7 virtues are means between two extremes4 ,they are essentially quantitative4 ,it follows that an alteration in the scale of human power will render actions bad which were formerly good4 ,our increased knowledge of hygiene has transformed resignation and inaction in face of epidemic disease from a religious virtue to a justly punishable offence4 ,we have improved our armaments1 and patriotism1 which was once a flame upon the altar1 has become a world-devouring conflagration4 ,the time has gone by when a ,huxley could believe that while science might indeed remould traditional mythology1 traditional morals were impregnable and sacrosanct to it4 ,we must learn not to take traditional morals too seriously4 ,and it is just because even the least dogmatic of religions tends to associate itself with some kind of unalterable moral tradition1 that there can be no truce between science and religion4 ,there does not seem to be any particular reason why a religion should not arise with an ethic as fluid as ,hindu mythology1 but it has not yet arisen4 ,christianity has probably the most flexible morals of any religion1 because ,jesus left no code of law behind him like ,moses or ,muhammad1 and his moral precepts are so different from those of ordinary life that no society has ever made any serious attempt to carry them out1 such as was possible in the case of ,israel and ,islam4 ,but every ,christian church has tried to impose a code of morals of some kind for which it has claimed divine sanction4 ,as these codes have always been opposed to those of the gospels a loophole has been left for moral progress such as hardly exists in other religions4 ,this is no doubt an argument for ,christianity as against other religions1 but not as against none at all1 or as against a religion which will frankly admit that its mythology and morals are provisional4 ,that is the only sort of religion that would satisfy the scientific mind1 and it is very doubtful whether it could properly be called a religion at all4 ,no doubt many people hope that such a religion may develop from christianity4 ,the human intellect is feeble1 and there are times when it does not assert the infinity of its claims4 ,but even then3 8,though in black jest it bows and nods0 99 99 99 99 99 8,i know it is roaring at the gods ,waiting the last eclipse40 ,the scientific worker of the future will more and more resemble the lonely figure of ,daedalus as he becomes conscious of his ghastly mission1 and proud of it4 8,black is his robe from top to toe1 ,his flesh is white and warm below1 ,all through his silent veins flow free ,hunger and thirst and venery1 ,but in his eyes a still small flame ,like the first cell from which he came ,burns round and luminous1 as he rides ,singing my song of deicides40 ,,footnotes ,footnote #a3 ,embden1 ,grafe1 and ,schmitz4 ,zeitschrift fr physiologische ,chemie1 ,vol4 #aac1 p4 #fg1 #aiba4 ,footnote #b3 ,the ,hindus have recognized the special and physiological relation of man to the cow by making the latter animal holy4 ,a good ,hindu would no more kill a cow than his foster-mother4 ,but the holiness of the cow has unfortunately extended to all its products1 and the extensive use of cowdung in ,indian religious ceremonies is disgusting to the average ,european4 ,the latter however1 is insensitive to the equally loathsome injunctions of the ,catholic ,church with regard to human marriage4 ,it would perhaps be better if both marriage and milking could be secularized4