,,cambridge ,,univ]sity ,,press         
,,w>eh\se1                              
,c4 ,f4 ,,clay1 ,,manag]4               
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,illu/ration                            
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,,co41 ,,ltd4                           
,all ,rights res]v$                     
,,decad5ce                              
,,h5ry ,,sidgwick ,,memorial            
,,lecture                               
by                                 ,,!  
,,"r ,,hon4                             
,,ar?ur ,,james ,,balf\r1 ,m4,p4        
,,deliv]$ ,,at ,,newnham ,,college1     
,,janu>y #be1 #aijh                     
,,cambridge                          at 
! ,univ]sity ,press                     
#aijh                                   
,cambridge3                             
,,pr9t$ ,,by ,,john ,,clay1 ,m4,a4      
,,at ,,! ,,univ]sity ,,press4           

,,decad5ce4      ,i mu/ beg9 :at ,i h to
 say ) a w>n+ & an apology4 ,i mu/  w>n 
y t ! pres5t essay makes no pret5ce to  
be an adequate  treatm5t ( "s compact & 
limit$ !me2 b r resembles ^?  w&]+ tra9s
 ( ?\ght1 :]e we all[ ourselves ! luxury
 (  putt+ wide-rang+ que/ions1 to :i*   
our ignorance =bids any  confid5t reply4
 ,i apologise = adopt+ a c\rse :i* ?us  
dep>ts  9 "s measure f famili> prec$5t4 
,i admit its p]ils4 ,b x is  j possible 
t :5 a subject1 or gr\p ( subjects1 is (
 great  inh]5t int]e/1 ev5 a t5tative1 &
 int]rogative1 treatm5t ( x  may be wor?
 attempt+4    ,my subject1 or at lea/ my
 po9t ( dep>ture1 is ,decad5ce4 ,i d  n 
mean ! sort ( decad5ce (t5 attribut$ to 
c]ta9 phases (  arti/ic or lit]>y       
developm5t1 9 :i* an ov]wr\ght te*nique1
  /ra9+ to express s5tim5ts too subtle  
or too morbid1 is deem$ to  h supplant$ 
! direct inspiration ( an e>li] & a     
simpl] age4  ,:e!r ^! autumnal glories1 
^! spl5d\rs t\*$ ) dea?1  are recurr+   
ph5om5a 9 ! lit]>y cycle3 :e!r1 if !y   

be1  !y are connect$ ) o!r =ms (        
decad5ce1 may be que/ions well  wor?    
ask+ & answ]+4 ,b !y are n ! que/ions ) 
:i* ,i  am at pres5t conc]n$4 ,!        
decad5ce respect+ :i* ,i wi% to put     
que/ions is n lit]>y or arti/ic1 x is   
political & national4  ,x is ! decad5ce 
:i* attacks1 or is alleg$ to attack1    
great  communities & hi/oric            
civilisations3 :i* is to societies ( m5 
:at s5ility is to man1 & is (t51 l      
s5ility1 ! precursor &  ! cause ( f9al  
dissolution4    ,x is curi\s h[ deeply  
imb$d$ 9 ord9>y disc\rse are traces  ( !
 conviction t *ildhood1 maturity1 & old 
age1 are /ages  9 ! corporate1 z !y are 
9 ! individual1 life4 8,a "y &  vigor\s 
nation10 8a decrepit & moribund         
civilisation0--phrases l  ^!1 & scores (
 o!rs conta9+ ! same implication1 come z
  tripp+ly f ! tongue z if !y sugge/$ no
 difficulty &  call$ = no explanation4  
,to ,macaulay 7unless ,i am press+ 8    
fam\s  metaphor too f>7 x seem$ natural 
t ages h5ce a "y c\ntry  l ,new ,zeal&  

%\ld be fl\ri%+1 b n less natural t an  
old c\ntry l ,engl& %\ld h decay$4      
,b]keley1 9 a well-kn[n  /anza1 tells h[
 ! drama ( civilisation has sl[ly       
travell$  we/w>ds to f9d its l(tie/     
developm5t1 b also its f9al  cata/rophe1
 9 ! ,new ,_w4 ,:ile e man :o is we>y1  
hopeless1  or disillusion$ talks z if he
 _h caught ^! v>i\s diseases f  !       
decad5t epo* 9 :i* he 0 born4    ,b :y  
%\ld civilisations ?us we> out & great  
communities  decay8 & :at evid5ce is !re
 t 9 fact !y d8 ,^!  que/ions1 ?\gh ,i  
_c give to !m any conclusive answ]s1 are
  ( mu* m ?an a m]ely !oretic int]e/4 ,=
 if curr5t modes  ( spee* take decad5ce 
m or less = grant$1 ) /ill great]       
confid5ce d !y speak ( ,progress z      
assur$4 ,yet if bo? are  real !y c h>dly
 be /udi$ ap>t1 !y mu/ evid5tly limit & 
qualify ea* o!r 9 actual exp]i5ce1 & !y 
_c be isolat$ 9  speculation4    ,?\gh  
antiquity1 ,pagan & ,*ri/ian1 took a    
diff]5t view1 x  seems easi]1 a priori1 
to und]/& ,progress ?an ,decad5ce4 ,ev5 

if ! =m] be limit$1 z presumably x is1  
by ! limitation (  human faculty1 we    
%\ld expect ! ultimate b\nd>y to be     
capable (  indef9ite approa*1 & we %\ld 
n expect t any "p ( !  road t[>ds x1    
once trav]s$1 w\ld h to be retrac$4 ,ev5
 9 !  organic _w1 decay & dea?1 famili> 
?\gh !y be1 are ph5om5a  t call =       
sci5tific explanation4 ,& ,weismann has 
def9itely ask$  h[ x comes ab\t t !     
high] organisms gr[ old & die1 see+  t  
old age & dea? are n insep>able         
*>act]i/ics ( liv+  protoplasm1 & t !   
simple/ organisms suff] no natural      
decay1  p]i%+1 :5 !y d p]i%1 by accid5t1
 />vation1 or specific  disease4    ,!  
answ] he gives to 8 own "q is t ! dea? (
 !  individual is s useful to ! race1 t 
,natural ,selection has1 9  all b ! v   
l[e/ species1 ext]m9at$ ! pot5tially    
immortal4    ,"o is tempt$ to enquire1  
:e!r ?is +5i\s explanation c\ld be  s   
modifi$ z to apply n m]ely to           
individuals b to communities4  ,is x    
ne$ful = ! cause ( civilisation z a     

:ole1 t !  organis$ embodim5t ( ea*     
p>ticul> civilisation1 if & :5  its free
 developm5t is arre/$1 %\ld make room = 
y\ng] &  m vigor\s competitors8 ,& if s 
c we f9d 9 ,natural ,selection  !       
me*anism by :i* ! pr9ciple ( decay &    
dissolution %all  be s implant$ 9 ! v   
nature ( human associations t a due     
succession among !m %all always be      
ma9ta9$8    ,to ?is second "q ! answ]   
mu/1 ,i ?9k1 be 9 ! negative4  ,!       
/ruggle = exi/5ce betwe5 diff]5t races &
 diff]5t  societies has admitt$ly play$ 
a great "p 9 social developm5t4 ,b  to  
ext5d ,weismann's idea f ! organic to ! 
social _w1 w\ld  imply a prolong$       
competition betwe5 gr\ps ( communities 9
 :i*  decad5ce 0 ! rule1 & gr\ps 9 :i* x
 0 n2--end+ 9 !  survival ( ! fir/1 & ! 
de/ruction ( ! second4 ,! gr\ps  ^:     
memb]s suff]$ p]iodical decad5ce &      
dissolution w\ld be  ! fitte/ to        
survive3 j z1 on ,weismann's !ory1 ^?   
species  ga9 9 competitive effici5cy :om
 dea? has unburd5$ ( ! old4    ,few w   

say t 9 ! petty fragm5t ( human hi/ory  
:i* alone  is op5 to our inspection1 !re
 is satisfactory evid5ce ( any su*  long
 drawn process4 ,"s may ev5 be dispos$  
to ask :e!r !re  is adequate evid5ce (  
su* a ph5om5on z decad5ce at all4 ,&  x 
mu/ be ackn[l$g$ t ! affirmative answ]  
%\ld be giv5  ) caution4 ,evid5tly we   
mu/ n consid] a dim9ution ( national    
p[]1 :e!r relative or absolute1 z       
con/itut+ by itself a pro(  ( national  
decad5ce4 ,holl& is n decad5t because h]
 place 9  ! hi]>*y ( ,european ,p[]s is 
less exalt$ ?an x 0 two  hundr$ & fifty 
ye>s ago4 ,spa9 0 n necess>ily decad5t  
at  ! end ( ! sev5te5? c5tury because %e
 _h exhau/$ h]self  9 a conte/ f> beyond
 h] res\rces ei!r 9 money or 9 m54 ,x   
w\ld1 ,i ?9k1 be ra% ev5 to say t ,v5ice
 0 decad5t at !  end ( ! eighte5?       
c5tury1 ?\gh ! gr[? ( o!r ,p[]s1 &  !   
div]sion ( ! great trade r\tes1 _h %orn 
h] ( weal? &  int]national influ5ce4 ,^!
 are mis=tunes :i* 9 ! sph]e (          
sociology correspond to accid5t or      

disease 9 ! sph]e ( biology4  ,& :at we 
are conc]n$ to "k is :e!r 9 ! sph]e (   
sociology  !re is also any?+ correspond+
 to ! decay ( old age--a decay  :i* may 
be ha/5$ by accid5t or disease1 :i* mu/ 
be end$ by  accid5t or disease1 b is    
c]ta9ly to be di/+ui%$ f bo?4    ,h[ev] 
?is "q %\ld be answ]$ ! cases ,i h cit$ 
are  suffici5t to %ew :]e ! *ief        
difficulty ( ! enquiry lies4  ,decad5ce1
 ev5 if x be a reality1 nev] acts 9     
isolation4 ,x is  always complicat$ )1 &
 (t5 acts ?r\gh1 o!r m obvi\s  causes4  
,x is always !re=e possible to argue t  
to ^! causes1  & n to ! m subtle &      
elusive influ5ces collectively  describ$
 z 'decad5ce1' ! decl9e & fall ( great  
communities is  really due4    ,yet !re 
are hi/oric trag$ies :i* 7z x seems to  
me7 d mo/  ob/9ately refuse to be ?us   
simply expla9$4 ,x is 9 va9 t  hi/orians
 enum]ate ! public calamities :i*       
prec$$1 & no d\bt  contribut$ to1 ! f9al
 cata/rophe4 ,civil diss5sions1 milit>y 
disa/]s1 pe/il5ces1 fam9es1 tyrants1    

tax-ga!r]s1 gr[+  burd5s1 & wan+        
weal?--! gloomy catalogue is unroll$    
be=e our  eyes1 yet someh[ x does n 9   
all cases :olly satisfy u3 we feel  t "s
 ( ^! diseases are ( a k9d :i* a vigor\s
 body politic  %\ld easily be able to   
survive1 t o!rs are second>y symptoms ( 
"s obscur] malady1 & t 9 nei!r case d !y
 supply u )  ! full explanations ( :i*  
we are 9 se>*4    ,consid] = in/ance !  
long agony & f9al de/ruction ( ,roman   
,imp]ialism 9 ! ,we/1 ! mo/ mom5t\s     
cata/rophe ( :i* we  h hi/oric record4  
,x has deeply /irr$ ! imag9ation (      
mank9d1  x has be5 ! !me ( great        
hi/orians1 x has be5 mu* expla9$  by    
political philosoph]s1 yet :o feels t   
ei!r hi/orians or  philosoph]s h laid   
b>e ! inn] work+s ( ! drama8 ,rome      
fell1 & great 0 ! fall ( x4 ,b :y x     
fell1 by :at secret  m9es its def5ces 7 
brea*$1 & :at made its g>rison s        
fa9t-he>t$ & ineffectual--?is is n s    
cle>4    ,9 ord] to measure adequately !
 difficulty ( ! problem let u  ab/ract  

our m9ds f hi/orical details & comp>e ! 
position (  ! ,empire ab\t ! middle ( ! 
second c5tury1 ) its position  9 !      
middle ( ! ?ird1 or aga9 at ! end ( !   
f\r?1 &  ask ( :at =ces hi/ory gives u  
an acc\nt1 suffici5t 9 ^!  p]iods to    
effect s mighty a trans=mation4 ,or1    
/ill bett]1 imag9e  an obs]v] equipp$ ) 
our curr5t /ock ( political wisdom1     
transport$ to ,rome 9 ! reign (         
,anton9us ,pius or ,m>cus ,aurelius1  & 
9 ignorance ( ! ev5t1 writ+ lett]s to ! 
newspap]s on !  future de/9ies ( !      
,empire4 ,:at w\ld 8 =eca/ be8    ,we   
might suppose him to exam9e1 9 ! fir/   
place1 ! milit>y  position ( ! ,/ate1   
its probable enemies1 its capacities =  
def5ce4 ,he w\ld note t only on its     
ea/]n b\nd>y 0 !re  an organis$ milit>y 
,p[] capable ( meet+ ,rome on any?+ l   
equal t]ms1 & ?is only 9 ! regions      
adjac5t to _! common  fronti]4 ,= ! re/ 
he w\ld discov] no civilis$ enemy along 
! s\!rn b\nd>y to ! ,atlantic or along  
its nor!rn b\nd>y  f ! ,black ,sea to ! 

,g]man ,ocean4 ,w>like tribes inde$ he  
w\ld f9d 9 pl5ty3 difficult to cru% )9 !
 limits ( _!  native =e/s & morasses1   
=midable x may be 9 a raid1 b  )\t      
political cohesion1 milit>y unity1 or ! 
means ( milit>y                         
conc5tration2--emb>rass+ !re=e r ?an    
dang]\s4  ,if rem9d$ ( ,v>us & 8 lo/    
legions1 he w\ld ask ( :at  importance1 
9 ! /ory ( a _w-p[] c\ld be ! loss ( a  
few ?\s& m5 surpris$ at a di/ance f _!  
base amid !  entanglem5ts ( a difficult 
& unkn[n c\ntry4 ,nev]1 x w\ld seem1  0 
,empire m =tunately circum/anc$ =       
purposes ( home def5ce4    ,b 7x might  
be ?\ght7 ! burd5 ( secur+ fronti]s (   
su*  l5g?1 ev5 aga9/ m]ely tribal       
assaults1 ?\gh easy f a  /rictly milit>y
 po9t ( view1 might prove too heavy to  
be long  endur$4 ,yet ! milit>y =ces    
scatt]$ ?r\gh ! ,roman ,empire1  ?\gh   
app>5tly adequate 9 ! days ( h]         
greatness w\ld1  accord+ to mod]n ideas1
 seem h>dly suffici5t = purposes (      
police1 let alone def5ce4 ,an army corps

 or less 0 deem$ en\gh  to pres]ve :at  
are n[ mighty k+doms1 f int]nal disord] 
&  ext]nal aggression4 ,& if we comp>e )
 ?is ! contributions1  ei!r 9 ! way (   
money or ( m51 exact$ f ! t]ritories    
subject to ,rome be=e ! ,empire came    
into be+1 or at any p]iod (  ! _w's     
hi/ory s9ce x dissolv$ away1 ! comp>ison
 mu/ surely  be entirely 9 fav\r ( !    
,empire4    ,b burd5s :i* seem light1 if
 measur$ by area1 may be heavy if       
measur$ by ability to pay4 ,yet :5 has  
ability to pay be5 great]  9 ! regions  
bord]+ ! ,s\!rn & ,ea/]n ,m$it]ranean   
?an  "u ! ,roman ,empire8 ,travel r\nd x
 9 imag9ation1 ea/w>d  f ! ,atlantic    
coa/ ( ,morocco till return+ we/w>d y   
rea*  ! head ( ! ,adriatic ,gulf1 & y w 
h skirt$ a region1  /ill ( imm5se       
natural weal?1 once fill$ ) great       
cities1 &  f]tile f>ms1 bett] gov]n$    
dur+ ! ,empire ?an x has ev] be5  gov]n$
 s9ce 7at lea/ till ,alg]ia became ,fr5*
 & ,egypt ,briti%72  includ+ among its  
prov9ces :at 7 great /ates be=e ! ,roman

  rule1 & h be5 great /ates s9ce t rule 
decay$1 divid$  by no int]national      
jeal\sies1 oppress$ by no fe> ( conque/1
  ent]pris+1 cultur$4 ,rememb] t to     
e/imate its area ( taxation  & recruit+ 
y mu/ add to ^! regions ,bulg>ia1       
,s]via1 mu*  ( ,au/ria & ,bav>ia1       
,switz]l&1 ,belgium1 ,italy1 ,france1   
,spa91  & mo/ ( ,brita91 & y h          
conditions fav\rable to milit>y  /r5g? &
 economic prosp]ity r>ely equall$ 9 !   
mod]n _w  & nev] 9 ! anci5t4    ,our    
obs]v] h[ev] might1 v rightly1 feel t a 
f>-spread+  ,empire l t ( ,rome1 includ+
 regions pr(\ndly diff]+ 9  race1 hi/ory
 & religion1 w\ld be liable to o!r      
dang]s ?an  ^? :i* arise f m]e ext]nal  
aggression4 ,"o ( ! fir/  que/ions1     
!re=e1 :i* he w\ld be dispos$ to ask1 is
 :e!r  s het]og5e\s a /ate 0 n 9        
p]petual dang] ( dissolution  ?r\gh !   
dis9tegrat+ influ5ce ( national         
s5tim5ts4 ,he w\ld  le>n probably1 ) a  
/rong feel+ ( surprise1 t ) ! s+le      
exception ( ! ,jews1 ! con/itu5t        

nations1 once conqu]$1 7  n m]ely cont5t
 to belong to ! ,empire1 b c\ld sc>cely 
imag9e  !mselves do+ any?+ else3 t !    
,imp]ial sy/em appeal$1 n  m]ely to !   
mat]ial ne$s ( ! compon5t populations1 b
 also to  _! imag9ation & _! loyalty2 t 
,gaul1 ,spa91 & ,brita91  ?\gh b rec5tly
 =c$ )9 ! pale ( civilisation1 7 z      
fai?ful to ! ,imp]ial ideal z ! ,greek (
 ,a!ns or ! ,hell5is$  ,ori5tals (      
,syria2 & t nei!r hi/oric memories1 nor 
local  patriotism1 nei!r disput$        
succession1 nor public calamities1 nor  
adm9i/rative divisions1 ev] really %ook 
! s5tim5t 9 fav\r (  ,imp]ial ,unity4   
,!re might be m ?an "o ,emp]or3 b !re   
c\ld  only be "o ,empire4 ,h[soev] our  
obs]v] might disapprove ( !  ,imp]ial   
sy/em he w\ld !re=e h to admit t !      
,empire1 )  all its %ortcom+s1 its      
absolutism & its bureaucracy1 _h solv$  
m successfully ?an any gov]nm5t1 be=e or
 s9ce1 ! problem (  devis+ a s*eme :i*  
equally satisfi$ ! s5tim5ts ( ,ea/ &    
,we/2 :i* respect$ local feel+s1        

enc\rag$ local gov]nm5t2 9  :i* ! ,celt1
 ! ,ib]ian1 ! ,b]b]1 ! ,egyptian1 !     
,asiatic1  ! ,greek1 ! ,illyrian1 !     
,italian 7 all at home1 & :i*1  ?\gh    
bas$ on conque/1 0 accept$ by ! conqu]$ 
z ! natural  organisation ( ! civilis$  
_w4    ,rome _h ?us unique s\rces (     
/r5g?4 ,:at s\rces ( weakness  w\ld our 
obs]v] be likely to detect beh9d h]     
impos+ ext]ior8  ,! dim9ution (         
population is ! "o :i* has 7rightly ,i  
?9k7  mo/ impress$ hi/orians3 & x is    
difficult to resi/ ! evid5ce1  ei!r ( ! 
fact1 or ( its disa/r\s consequ5ces4 ,i 
hesitate  inde$ to accept )\t           
qualification ! acc\nts giv5 u ( !      
progressive decay ( ! native ,italian   
/ock f ! days ( !  ,grac*i to !         
dis9tegration ( ! ,empire 9 ! ,we/3 & :5
 we  read h[ ! de>? ( m5 0 made good 79 
s f> z x 0 made  good7 by ! increas+    
infl[ ( slaves & adv5tur]s f e  corn] ( 
! kn[n _w1 "o wond]s ^: sons !y 7 :o1 = 
?ree c5turies & m1 s brilliantly l$ !   
van ( mod]n ,european  culture1 z x     

em]g$ f ! d>kness ( ! e>ly ,middle      
,ages4  ,pass+ by su* collat]al issues1 
h[ev]1 & admitt+ depopulation  to h be5 
bo? real & s]i\s1 we may well ask :e!r x
 0 n  ! result ( ,roman decad5ce r ?an  
its cause1 ! symptom (  "s deep-seat$   
social malady1 n its orig94 ,we are n   
conc]n$  "h ) ! ari/ocracy ( ,rome1 nor 
ev5 ) ! p ( ,italy4  ,we are conc]n$ ) !
 ,empire4 ,we are n conc]n$ ) a pass+   
phase or fa%ion1 b ) a process :i* seems
 to h gone on )  increas+ rapidity1     
?r\gh good times z well z bad1 till !   
f9al  cataclysm4 ,a local disease might 
h a local explanation1 a transi5t  "o   
might be due to a *ance co9cid5ce4 ,b   
:at c we say ( a  disease :i* 0 app>5tly
 co-ext5sive ) ,imp]ial civilisation 9  
area1 & :i* exce$$ x 9 duration8    ,i  
f9d x h>d to believe t ei!r a selfi%    
av]sion to matrimony  or a my/ical      
admiration = celibacy1 ?\gh at c]ta9    
p]iods !  "o 0 common 9 ,pagan & ! o!r 9
 ,*ri/ian circles1 7  m ?an elem5ts 9 ! 
complex ( causes by :i* ! result 0      

br\ght ab\t4 ,l ! plagues :i* deva/at$  
,europe 9 ! second  & ?ird c5turies1 !y 
mu/ h greatly aggravat$ ! evil1 b  !y   
are h>dly suffici5t to acc\nt = x4 ,nor 
yet c we f9d  an explanation ( x 9 !    
disc\ragem5t1 ! s5se ( imp5d+  doom1 by 
:i* m5's spirits 7 oppress$ long be=e ! 
,imp]ial  p[] began visibly to wane1 =  
?is is "o ( ! ?+s :i*1 if  hi/orically  
true1 does itself mo/ urg5tly require   
explanation4    ,x may be h[ev] t our   
w&]+ politician w\ld be too well  gr\nd$
 9 ,mal?usian economics to reg>d a      
dim9ution ( population  z 9 itself an   
ov]:elm+ calamity4 ,& if he 7 press$ to 
describe ! weak spots 9 ! ,empire ( !   
,anton9es he w\ld be  dispos$1 ,i ?9k1  
to look = !m on ! e?ical r ?an on !     
milit>y1 ! economic1 or ! /rictly       
political sides ( social life4  ,he w\ld
 be incl9$ to say1 z 9 effect ,mr ,lecky
 does say1 t 9  ! in/itution ( slav]y1 9
 ! brutalities ( ! gladiatorial  %[s1 9 
! gratuit\s di/ribution ( bread to !    
urban mobs1 are  to be f\nd ! corrupt+  

influ5ces :i* fir/ weak5$ & !n  de/roy$ 
! vig\r ( ! ,/ate4    ,i confess t ,i _c
 easily accept ?is analysis ( ! facts4  
,z  reg>ds ! gladiatorial %[s1 ev5 _h !y
 be5 univ]sal ?r\gh\t  ! ,empire1 & _h  
!y fl\ri%$ m rankly z its p[] decl9$1   
,i %\ld /ill h que/ion$ ! propriety (   
attribut+ too  f>-rea*+ effects to su* a
 cause4 ,! ,romans 7 brutal :ile !y  7  
conqu]+ ! _w3 its conque/ enabl$ !m to  
be brutal )  o/5tation2 b we mu/ n      
measure ! ill consequ5ces ( _!  b>b>ic  
ta/es by ! dep? ( our own disgu/s1 nor  
assume ! ,go?ic  invasions to be !      
natural & fitt+ ,nemesis ( s mu*        
spectacul>  %$d+ ( innoc5t blood4    ,z 
= ! public di/ributions ( corn1 "o w\ld 
wi% to h m  evid5ce z to its social     
effects4 ,b ev5 )\t fully accept+ !     
!ory ( ! late/ ,roman hi/orian1 :o      
believes t1 "u ! !n  prevail+ conditions
 ( transport1 no v l>ge city c\ld exi/ 9
  ,antiquity1 if ! supply ( its food 7  
left to private ent]prise1  we _c       
s]i\sly reg>d ?is practice1 /range z x  

seems to u1 z  an important elem5t 9 !  
problem4 ,grant+ = ! sake ( argum5t  t x
 demoralis$ ! mob ( ,rome1 x mu/ be     
rememb]$ t ,rome  0 n ! ,empire1 nor did
 ! mob ( ,rome gov]n ! ,empire1 z once  
x _h gov]n$ ! ,republic4    ,slav]y is a
 f> m important matt]4 ,! magnitude (   
its effects on  anci5t societies1       
difficult z ^! are to dis5tangle1 c     
h>dly be  exagg]at$4 ,b ) :at           
plausibility c we f9d 9 x ! cause (     
,rome's decl9e1 see+ t x 0 ! concomitant
 also ( its rise8  ,h[ c t :i* 9        
,antiquity 0 common to e /ate1 h ?is    
exceptional & malign influ5ce ^u "o8 ,x 
w\ld n 9 any case be  easy to accept su*
 a !ory2 b surely x becomes impossible  
:5 we  be> 9 m9d ! enorm\s improvem5t   
effect$ "u ! ,empire bo? 9  ! law & !   
practice ( slav]y4 ,great z 7 its evils1
 !y 7  dim9i%+ evils--less ru9\s z "t   
w5t on to ! "* ( !  ma/]1 less pa9ful & 
degrad+ to ! slave4 ,:o c believe t  ?is
 immemorial cu/om c\ld1 9 its decl9e1   
de/roy a civilisation1  :i*1 9 its      

vig\r1 x _h help$ to create8    ,( c\rse
 our obs]v] w\ld see mu* 9 ! social     
sy/em he 0  exam9+ :i* he w\ld rightly  
reg>d z morally dete/able &  politically
 p]nici\s4 ,b ! real "q be=e him w\ld n 
be  #8are ^! ?+s good or bad8' b #8are  
^! ?+s gett+ bett]  or gett+ worse8' ,& 
surely 9 mo/ cases he w\ld be oblig$ to 
answ] #8gett+ bett]4' ,_m ?+s moreov]   
w\ld come "u 8  notice fitt$ to move 8  
admiration 9 a mu* less qualifi$ mann]4 
,few gov]nm5ts h be5 m anxi\s to fo/] an
 ali5 & high]  culture1 ?an 0 ! ,roman  
,gov]nm5t to fo/] ,greek civilisation4  
,9 s f> z ,rome inh]it$ :at ,alex&]     
conqu]$1 x c>ri$ out  ! ideal :i*       
,alex&] _h conceiv$4 ,9 few p]iods h !  
ri*  be5 readi] to sp5d ( _! private    
=tunes on public objects4  ,!re nev] 0 a
 community 9 :i* associations = e       
purpose (  mutual aid or enjoym5t sprang
 m readily into exi/5ce4 ,!re nev]  0 a 
milit>y mon>*y less giv5 to w>s (       
aggression4 ,!re nev]  0 an age 9 :i*   
!re 0 a m rapid advance 9 humanit>ian   

ideals1 or a m anxi\s seek+ aft]        
spiritual tru?4 ,!re 0 mu*  discussion1 
!re 01 ap>t f politics1 b little        
intol]ance4  ,education 0 well end[$1 & 
its pr(essors held 9 high e/eem4        
,physical culture 0 c>$ =4 ,law 0 becom+
 sci5tific4 ,rese>*  0 n =gott54 ,:at m 
c\ld be reasonably expect$8    ,accord+ 
to our ord9>y me?ods ( analysis x is n  
easy to say  :at m c\ld be reasonably   
expect$4 ,b pla9ly mu* m 0  requir$4 ,9 
a few g5]ations f ! "t ( :i* ,i am      
speak+  ! ,empire lo/ its extraord9>y   
p[] ( assimilat+ ali5 &  b>b>ic elem5ts4
 ,x became too feeble ei!r to absorb or 
to expel  !m3 & ! immigrants :o 9 happi]
 times might h be/[$  r5ew$ vig\r on !  
commonweal?1 became1 9 ! h\r ( its      
decl9e1  a weakness & a p]il4 ,pov]ty   
grew z population %rank4 ,municipal     
(fice1 once s eag]ly desir$1 became !   
mo/ cruel ( burd5s4  ,associations      
connect$ ) indu/ry or comm]ce1 :i* began
 by freely  ex*ang+ public s]vice =     
public privilege1 f\nd _! memb]s        

subject$ to ev] increas+ obligations1 = 
! due p]=mance (  :i* !y & _! *ildr5 7  
liable 9 p]son & 9 prop]ty4  ,?us :ile  
,*ri/ianity1 & ! o!r =ces t made = m]cy1
 7  dim9i%+ ! slav]y ( ! slave1 ! ne$s (
 ! ,bureaucracy  compell$ x to tr5* ev] 
m & m ^u ! fre$om ( !  free4 ,x 0 ea*   
man's duty 7s ran ! argum5t7 to s]ve !  
commonweal?3 he c\ld be/ s]ve !         
commonweal? by devot+ himself  to 8     
call+ if x 7 "o ( public necessity3 ?is 
duty he %\ld  be requir$ "u p5alties to 
p]=m1 & to devote if necess>y to  its   
p]=mance1 lab\r to ! limits ( endurance1
 =tune to !  la/ %ill+1 & family to !   
remote/ g5]ation4 ,?r\gh ?is  crude     
exp]im5t 9 socialism1 ! civilis$ _w     
seem$ to be rapidly  mov+ t[>ds a sy/em 
( univ]sal ca/e1 impos$ by no immemorial
  cu/om1 support$ by no religi\s        
scruple1 b =c$ on an unwill+  p by !    
,emp]or's edict & ! execution]'s la%4   
,^! ?+s h sev]ally & collectively be5   
reg>d$ z !  causes :y 9 ! ,we/ !        
,imp]ial sy/em s quickly crumbl$ into   

*aos4 ,& s no d\bt !y 74 ,b !y obvi\sly 
require !mselves  to be expla9$ by      
causes m g5]al & m remote2 & :at 7  ^!8 
,if ,i answ] z ,i feel dispos$ to       
answ]--,decad5ce--y w  prop]ly ask h[ ! 
unkn[n becomes less unkn[n m]ely by     
receiv+  a "n4 ,i reply t if !re be     
inde$ subtle *anges 9 ! social  tissues 
( old communities :i* make !m1 z "t goes
 on1 less  resi/ant to ! ext]nal attacks
 & ! int]nal di/urbances by  :i* all    
communities are ?reat5$1 ov]t           
recognition ( ! fact  is a /ep 9        
advance4 ,we h n an idea ( :at #8life'  
consi/s 91  b if on t acc\nt we 7 to    
ab/a9 f us+ ! t]m1 we  %\ld n be bett] b
 worse equipp$ = deal+ ) ! problems  (  
physiology2 :ile on ! o!r h& if we c\ld 
translate life  into t]ms ( matt] &     
motion to-morr[1 we %\ld /ill be oblig$ 
to use ! ^w 9 ord] to di/+ui% ! mat]ial 
movem5ts :i*  con/itute life or exhibit 
x1 f ^? :i* d n4 ,9 l mann]  we are     
ignorant ( ! inn] "* ( ! cell *anges :i*
  produce s5esc5ce4 ,b %\ld we be bett] 

fitt$ to =m a correct  conception ( !   
life-hi/ory ( complex organisms if we   
refus$ to  recognise any cause ( dea? b 
accid5t or disease8 ,i admit1 (  c\rse1 
t ! t]m #8decad5ce' is less precise ?an 
#8old age'3  z sociology deals )        
organisms f> less def9ite ?an biology4  
,i  admit also t x expla9s no?+4 ,if its
 use is to be ju/ifi$ at  all1 !        
ju/ification mu/ dep5d n on ! fact t x  
supplies an  explanation1 b on ! fact t 
x rules out explanations :i* are  obvi\s
 b inadequate4 ,& ?is may be a s]vice ( 
"s importance4  ,! facile g5]alisations 
) :i* we s (t5 season ! /udy (  dry     
hi/oric fact2 ! habits ( political      
discussion :i* induce u  to catalogue = 
purposes ( debate ! outw>d signs t      
di/+ui%  7z we are prone to ?9k7 ! /&+ f
 ! fall+ /ate1 hide  ! obscur]1 b m     
pot5t1 =ces :i* sil5tly prep>e !  fate (
 empires4 ,national "* is subtle &      
elusive2 n to be  express$ 9 /ati/ics   
nor measur$ by ! r\gh me?ods :i* suffice
  ! practical morali/ or /atesman4 ,& :5

 ?r\gh an anci5t &  /ill p[]ful /ate !re
 spreads a mood ( deep disc\ragem5t1 :5 
! reaction aga9/ recurr+ ills gr[s      
feebl]1 & ! %ip rises  less buoyantly to
 ea* succe$+ wave1 :5 le>n+ langui%es1  
ent]prise slack5s1 & vig\r ebbs away1   
!n1 z ,i ?9k1 !re is  pres5t "s process 
( social deg5]ation1 :i* we mu/ p]=ce   
recognise1 & :i*1 p5d+ a satisfactory   
analysis1 may conv5i5tly  be di/+ui%$ by
 ! "n ( #8decad5ce4'    ,i am well aw>e 
t ?\gh ! space ,i h j devot$ to !       
illu/ration ( my !me provid$ by ,roman  
hi/ory is out ( all  proportion to !    
g5]al plan ( ?is address1 yet ! treatm5t
 (  x is inadequate & p]haps unconv9c+4 
,b ^? :o are mo/  reluctant to admit t  
decay1 z di/+ui%$ f mis=tune1 may  l[] !
 g5]al level ( civilisation1 c h>dly d5y
 t 9 _m  cases t level may = indef9ite  
p]iods %ew no t5d5cy to rise4  ,if      
decad5ce be unkn[n1 is n progress       
exceptional8 ,consid] !  *ang+ politics 
( ! un*ang+ ,ea/#a4 ,is x n true t !re1 
:ile w>s & revolutions1 dyna/ic &       

religi\s1 h %att]$  anci5t /ates &      
br\ght new ones into be+1 e community1 z
  soon z x has ris5 above ! tribal &    
nomad condition1 adopts  ) ! r>e/       
exceptions a =m ( gov]nm5t :i*1 f its  v
 g5]ality 9 ,ea/]n l&s1 we habitually   
call an #8ori5tal  despotism'8 ,we may  
cry/allise & re-cry/allise a soluble    
salt z  (t5 z we please1 ! new cry/als w
 always resemble ! old ones4  ,!        
cry/als1 inde$1 may be ( diff]5t sizes1 
_! compon5t  molecules may occupy       
diff]5t positions )9 ! cry/all9e        
/ructure1 b ! /ructure itself w be ( "o 
immutable patt]n4  ,s x is1 or seems to 
be1 ) ^! ori5tal /ates4 ,!y rise1 9     
turn1 ^u ! ru9s ( _! pr$ecessors1       
!mselves pr$e/9$  to p]i% by a l fate4  
,b :atev] _! orig9 or hi/ory1 !y  are   
always ei!r autocracies or aggregations 
( autocracies2 & no  diff]5ces ( race1 (
 cre$1 or ( language seem suffici5t to  
v>y  ! viol5t monotony ( _! int]nal     
hi/ory4 ,9 ! eighte5?  c5tury !ori/s 7  
cont5t to attribute ! political s]vitude

 (  ! ,ea/]n _w to ! unscrupul\s        
ma*9ations ( tyrants & _!  tools4 ,& su*
 explanations are good z f> z !y g4 ,b  
?is1 9  tru?1 is n v f>4 ,intrigue1     
assass9ation1 ru?less repression1  !    
:ole ma*9]y ( despotism supply p>ticul> 
explanations (  p>ticul> incid5ts4 ,!y d
 n supply ! g5]al explanation (  ! g5]al
 ph5om5on4 ,!y tell y h[ ?is rul] or t  
obta9$  absolute p[]4 ,!y d n tell y :y 
e rul] is absolute4  ,nor c ,i furni% ! 
answ]4 ,! fact rema9s t ov] l>ge &      
relatively civilis$ portions ( ! _w     
popul> gov]nm5t is  pr(\ndly unpopul>1 9
 ! s5se t x is no natural or spontane\s 
social gr[?4 ,political absolutism n    
political fre$om is !  famili> we$ ( !  
c\ntry4 ,despots *ange b despotism      
rema9s3 &  if ?r\gh ali5 influ5ces1 l ^?
 ex]cis$ by ,greek cities 9  ,asia1 or  
by ,briti% rule 9 ,india1 ! type is     
modifi$1 x may well be  d\bt$ :e!r !    
modification c\ld long survive ! mom5t  
:5 its  su/a9+ cause 0 )drawn4    ,n[ x 
w\ld almo/ seem z if 9 l&s :]e ?is      

political type 0  normal a c]ta9 level (
 culture 7n ( c\rse ! same 9 ea*  case7 
c\ld n p]man5tly be ov]pass$4 ,if "u !  
excitem5t (  religion or conque/1 or    
else ?r\gh causes m complicat$ & m      
obscure1 ?is limit has sometimes be5    
left beh9d1 reaction has always  foll[$1
 & decad5ce set 94 ,_m p inde$1 z ,i h  
already  obs]v$1 take ?is z a matt] (   
c\rse4 ,x seems to !m ! mo/  natural ?+ 
9 ! _w t ! glories ( ! ,ea/]n ,khalifate
  %\ld decay1 & t ! ,moors 9 ,morocco   
%\ld lose ev5 ! memory  ( ! le>n+ & !   
arts possess$ b ?ree c5turies ago by !  
,moors 9 ,spa94 ,to me x seems my/]i\s4 
,b :e!r x be easy (  compreh5sion or    
difficult1 if only x be true1 does x n  
furni%  food = disquiet+ reflexion8 ,if 
!re are :ole gr\ps ( nations  capable on
 _! own initiative ( a c]ta9 measure (  
civilisation1  b capable app>5tly ( no  
m1 & if bel[ !m aga9 !re are  7z ,i     
suppose7 o!r races :o seem incapable (  
ei!r creat+ a  civilisation ( _! own1 or
 ( pres]v+ unaid$ a civilisation        

impress$ ^u !m f )\t1 by :at "r d we    
assume t  no impassable limits b> ! pa? 
( ,we/]n progress8 ,^? limits  may n yet
 be 9 sight4 ,surely !y are n4 ,b does n
 a survey  ( hi/ory sugge/ t some:]e 9 !
 dim future !y await our  approa*8    ,x
 may be repli$ t ! hi/ory ( ,rome1 on   
:i* ,i dwelt a mom5t  ago1 %ews t arre/$
 progress1 & ev5 decad5ce1 may be b !   
prelude to a new p]iod ( vigor\s gr[?4  
,s t ev5 ^? races  or nations :i* seem  
froz5 into et]nal immobility may base ^u
  exp]i5ce _! hopes ( an awak5+ spr+4   
,i am n sure1 h[ev]1 t ?is is ! true    
int]pretation ( !  facts4 ,!re is no    
spectacle inde$ 9 all hi/ory m          
impressive  ?an ! ?ick d>kness settl+   
d[n ov] ,we/]n ,europe1 blott+  out all 
b a fa9t & di/ort$ vision (             
,graeco-,roman culture1 &  !n1 z x sl[ly
 rises1 unveil+ ! v>iety & ri* promise (
 !  mod]n _w4 ,b ,i d n ?9k we %\ld make
 ?is unique ph5om5on  support too       
weighty a load ( !ory4 ,i %\ld n inf] f 
x t  :5 "s wave ( civilisation has      

app>5tly sp5t its =ce1 we  h a "r to    
reg>d its )draw+ sweep z b ! prelude to 
a  new advance4 ,i %\ld r conjecture t 9
 ?is p>ticul> case  we %\ld f9d1 among  
o!r subtle causes ( decad5ce1 "s obscure
  di%>mony betwe5 ! ,imp]ial sy/em & !  
temp]am5t ( ! ,we/1  undetect$ ev5 by ^?
 :o suff]$ f x4 ,t sy/em1 ?\gh  accept$ 
) cont5tm5t & ev5 ) pride1 ?\gh 9 ! days
 (  its greatness x br\ght civilisation1
 comm]ce1 & security 9 its  tra91 mu/   
surely h lack$ "s elem5ts :i* are ne$$  
to fo/]  among ,teutons1 ,celts1 &      
,ib]ians ! qualities1 :atev] ^! may  be1
 on :i* su/a9$ progress dep5ds4 ,x 0    
p]haps too ori5tal  = ! occid5t1 & x    
c]ta9ly became m ori5tal z "t w5t  on4  
,9 ! ,ea/ x 01 comp>atively speak+1     
successful4 ,if !re  0 no progress1     
decad5ce 0 sl[2 & b = :at ,we/]n ,europe
  did1 & :at x fail$ to d1 dur+ ! long  
/ruggle ) militant  ,mahomm$anism1 !re  
might /ill be an ,empire 9 ! ,ea/1      
l>gely  ,asiatic 9 population1 ,*ri/ian 
9 religion1 ,greek 9 culture1 ,roman  by

 political desc5t4    ,_h ?is be5 !     
c\rse ( ev5ts l>ge portions ( mank9d    
w\ld  d\btless h be5 mu* bett] gov]n$   
?an !y are4 ,x is n s  cle> t !y w\ld h 
be5 m #8progressive4' ,progress is )  ! 
,we/3 ) communities ( ! ,european type4 
,& if _! en]gy  ( developm5t is "s day  
to be exhau/$1 :o c believe t !re       
rema9s any ext]nal s\rce f :i* x c be   
r5ew$8 ,:]e are !  untri$ races compet5t
 to con/ruct out ( ! ru9$ fragm5ts ( our
  civilisation a new & bett] habitation 
= ! _s ( man8 ,!y  d n exi/3 & if ! _w  
is aga9 to be buri$ "u a b>b>ic  flood1 
x w n be l t :i* f]tilis$1 ?\gh x fir/  
de/roy$1 ! we/]n prov9ces ( ,rome1 b l t
 :i* 9 ,asia  subm]g$ = ev] ! la/ traces
 ( ,hell5ic culture4    ,we are ?us     
br\ght back to ! "q ,i put a few mom5ts 
s9ce4  ,:at gr\nds are !re = suppos+ t  
we c escape ! fate to  :i* o!r races h  
_h to submit8 ,if = p]iods :i*1 measur$ 
on ! hi/oric scale1 are ( great         
duration1 communities :i* h  advanc$ to 
a c]ta9 po9t appe> able to advance no   

fur!r2 if  civilisations we> out1 &     
races become effete1 :y %\ld we expect  
to progress indef9itely1 :y = u alone is
 ! doom ( man to be  rev]s$8    ,to ^!  
que/ions ,i h no v satisfactory answ]s  
to give1 nor  d ,i believe t our k (    
national or social psy*ology  is        
suffici5t to make a satisfactory answ]  
possible4 ,"s purely  t5tative          
obs]vations on ! po9t may1 h[ev]1 furni%
 a fitt+  conclusion to an address :i*  
has be5 t5tative ?r\gh\t1 & aims  r at  
sugge/+ tra9s ( ?\ght1 ?an at complet+  
!m4    ,i assume t ! factors :i* comb9e 
to make ea* g5]ation :at  x is at !     
mom5t ( its entrance into adult life are
 9 ! ma9  tw(old4 ,! "o produces ! raw  
mat]ial ( society1 ! process  (         
manufacture is effect$ by ! o!r4 ,! fir/
 is physiological  inh]itance1 ! second 
is ! inh]itance p>tly ( ext]nal         
conditions ( life1 p>tly ( beliefs#b1   
traditions1 s5tim5ts1  cu/oms1 laws1 &  
organisation--all t con/itute ! social  
surr\nd+s 9 :i* m5 gr[ up to maturity4  

,i haz>d no conjecture z to ! %>e borne 
respectively by ^! two  k9ds ( cause 9  
produc+ _! jo9t result4 ,nor are we     
likely to  obta9 satisfactory evid5ce on
 ! subject till1 9 ! int]e/s (  sci5ce1 
two communities ( diff]5t blood &       
diff]5t traditions  cons5t to ex*ange _!
 *ildr5 at bir? by a univ]sal process  (
 reciprocal adoption4 ,b ev5 9 ! abs5ce 
( s h]oic an  exp]im5t1 x seems safe to 
say t ! mobility :i* makes possible     
ei!r progress or decad5ce1 resides r 9 !
 causes gr\p$  "u ! second head ?an 9 ! 
physiological mat]ial on :i*  education1
 9 ! wide/ s5se ( t ambigu\s t]m1 has   
got to  "w4 ,if1 z ,i suppose1 acquir$  
qualities are n inh]it$1 ! only  causes 
:i* c\ld fundam5tally modify !          
physiological "* (  any p>ticul>        
community are its int]mixture ) ali5    
races ?r\gh  slav]y1 conque/1 or        
immigration2 or else new conditions :i* 
v>i$  ! relative proportion 9 :i*       
diff]5t sections ( ! population         
contribut$ to its total numb]s4 ,if1 =  

example1 ! m successful  memb]s ( !     
community _h small] families ?an ! less 
successful2  or if m$ical adm9i/ration  
succe$$ 9 ext+ui%+ maladies to  :i*     
p]sons ( a p>ticul> con/itution 7       
specially liable2 or  if "o /ra9 9 a    
mix$ race _h a l>g] bir? rate ?an       
ano!r--9  ^! cases & 9 o!rs l !m1 !re   
w\ld d\btless be a *ange  9 !           
physiological factor ( national "*4 ,b  
su* *anges  are n likely1 ,i suppose1 to
 be consid]able1 except1 p]haps1 ^?  due
 to ! mixture ( races2--& t only 9 new  
c\ntries ^:  economic opportunities     
tempt immigrants widely diff]+ 9        
culture1  & 9 capacity = culture1 f ^?  
^: citiz5%ip !y propose  to %>e4    ,!  
flexible elem5t 9 any society1 t :i* is 
susceptible (  progress or decad5ce1 mu/
 !re=e be look$ = r 9 !  physical &     
psy*ical conditions affect+ ! life ( its
 compon5t  units1 ?an 9 _! inh]it$      
con/itution4 ,?is la/ r supplies  a     
limit to v>iations ?an an elem5t :i*    
does itself v>y3 ?\gh  f ?is po9t ( view

 its importance is capital4 ,i at lea/  
f9d  x q impossible to believe t any    
attempt to provide widely  diff]5t races
 ) an id5tical environm5t1 political1   
religi\s1  educational1 :at y w1 c ev]  
make !m alike4 ,!y h be5  diff]5t &     
unequal s9ce hi/ory began2 diff]5t &    
unequal !y  are de/9$ to rema9 ?r\gh    
future p]iods ( comp>able duration4     
,b ?\gh ! advance ( ea* community is ?us
 limit$ by its  inh]it$ aptitudes1 ,i d 
n suppose t ^? limits h ev] be5  rea*$  
by its unaid$ ef=ts4 ,9 ! cases :]e a   
=w>d movem5t  has di$ away1 ! pause mu/ 
9 "p be due to arre/$ developm5t  9 !   
v>iable1 n to a fix$ resi/ance 9 !      
un*ang+ factor  ( national "*4 ,ei!r    
ext]nal conditions are unfav\rable2  or 
! s5tim5ts1 cu/oms & beliefs :i* make   
society possible  h h>d5$ into %apes :i*
 make its fur!r self-developm5t         
impossible2 or ?r\gh m]e we>9ess ( _s ! 
community resigns  itself to a cont5t$1 
or p]haps a discont5t$1 /agnation2 or x 
%att]s itself 9 pursuit ( impossible    

ideals1 or = o!r &  obscur] reasons1    
flags 9 its endeav\rs1 & falls %ort (   
possible  a*ievem5t4    ,n[ ,i am q     
unable to (f] any su* g5]al analysis ( !
 causes  by :i* ^! h9drances to progress
 are produc$ or remov$ z w\ld  furni% a 
reply to my "q4 ,b x may be wor? not+ t 
a  social =ce has come into be+1 new 9  
magnitude if n 9 k9d1  :i* mu/ fav\rably
 modify su* h9drances z come "u all b ! 
la/ ( ! divisions 9 :i* ,i h r\ghly     
arrang$ !m4 ,?is =ce  is ! mod]n        
alliance betwe5 pure sci5ce & indu/ry4  
,t on ?is  we mu/ ma9ly rely = !        
improvem5t ( ! mat]ial conditions  "u   
:i* societies live is 9 my op9ion       
obvi\s1 al?\gh no "o  w\ld conjecture x 
f a hi/oric survey ( political          
controv]sy4  ,its direct moral effects  
are less obvi\s2 inde$ !re are _m mo/   
excell5t p :o w\ld altoge!r d5y _!      
exi/5ce4 ,to reg>d  x z a =ce fitt$ to  
r\se & su/a9 ! en]gies ( nations  w\ld  
seem to !m absurd3 = ?is w\ld be to rank
 x ) ^?  o!r =ces :i* h mo/ deeply /irr$

 ! emotions ( great  communities1 h urg$
 !m to ! greate/ ex]tions1 h releas$  !m
 mo/ effectually f ! b5umb+ fett]s (    
m]ely p]sonal  preoccupations1--)       
religion1 patriotism1 & politics4       
,indu/rial  expansion "u sci5tific      
inspiration1 s f> f des]v+ praise  l    
?is1 is 9 _! view1 at be/1 b a new s\rce
 ( mat]ial  well-be+1 at wor/ ! prolific
 p>5t ( physical ugl9ess 9  _m =ms1     
ma*9e made w>es1 smoky cities1 pollut$  
riv]s1 &  desecrat$                     
l&scapes1--appropriately associat$ )    
mat]ialism &  gre$4    ,i believe ?is   
view to be utt]ly mislead+1 conf\nd+    
accid5t )  ess5ce1 transi5t             
accompanim5ts ) insep>able *>act]i/ics4 
,%\ld we dream ( ?us judg+ ! o!r great  
social =ces ( :i*  ,i h spok58 ,are we  
to ignore :at religion has done = ! _w  
because x has be5 ! fruitful excuse = ! 
n>r[e/ bigotries  & ! mo/ cruel         
p]secutions8 ,are we to und]rate ! wor? 
(  politics1 because politics may mean  
no m ?an ! m9dless cla% (  factions1 or 

! b>r5 ex*ange ( "o set ( tyrants or    
jobb]s =  ano!r8 ,is patriotism to be   
despis$ because its manife/ations h  be5
 sometimes vulg>1 sometimes selfi%1     
sometimes brutal1 sometimes  crim9al8   
,e/imates l ^! seem to me worse ?an     
useless4 ,all great  social =ces are n  
m]ely capable ( p]v]sion1 !y are        
con/antly  p]v]t$4 ,yet 7 !y elim9at$ f 
our social sy/em1 7 ea*  man1 act+ on ! 
advice1 :i* ,voltaire gave b nev]       
foll[$1 to  dis9t]e/ himself ( all t    
goes on beyond ! limits ( 8 own  cabbage
 g>d51 decad5ce ,i take x1 w\ld h       
already f> advanc$4    ,b if !          
proposition ,i am def5d+ may be wrongly 
criticis$1 x  is /ill m likely to be    
wrongly prais$4 ,to "s x w comm5d       
itself z a eulogy on an indu/rial z     
di/+ui%$ f a milit>y  civilisation3 z a 
sugge/ion t 9 ! peaceful pursuit ( weal?
  !re is t :i* ( itself may con/itute a 
valuable social tonic4  ,?is may be     
true1 b x is n my cont5tion4 ,9 talk+ ( 
!  alliance betwe5 indu/ry & sci5ce my  

emphasis is at lea/ z mu*  on ! ^w      
sci5ce z on ! ^w indu/ry4 ,i am n       
conc]n$ n[  ) ! proportion ( !          
population devot$ to productive lab\r1  
or ! e/eem 9 :i* !y are held4 ,x is on !
 effects :i* ,i  believe are foll[+1 &  
are go+ 9 yet l>g] measure to foll[1  f 
! intimate relation betwe5 sci5tific    
discov]y & indu/rial  effici5cy1 t ,i   
mo/ desire to insi/4    ,d y !n1 x w be 
ask$1 s highly rate ! utilit>ian aspect 
( rese>* z to reg>d x z a s\rce1 n m]ely
 ( mat]ial  conv5i5ce1 b ( spiritual    
elevation8 ,is x s]i\sly to be rank$  ) 
religion & patriotism z an important =ce
 = rais+ m5's  lives above :at is small1
 p]sonal1 & self-c5tr$8 ,does x n  r    
p]v]t pure k into a new contrivance =   
mak+ money1  & give a fre% triumph to ! 
#8gr[+ mat]ialism ( ! age'8    ,i d n   
myself believe t ?is age is ei!r less   
spiritual or m  sordid ?an its          
pr$ecessors4 ,i believe1 inde$1         
precisely ! rev]se4  ,b h[ev] ?is may   
be1 is x n pla9 t if a society is to be 

mov$ by ! remote speculations ( isolat$ 
?9k]s x c only  be on condition t _!    
isolation is n complete8 ,"s po9t (     
contact !y mu/ h ) ! _w 9 :i* !y live1 &
 if _!  influ5ce is to be bas$ on       
widespread sympa?y1 ! contact mu/ be  9 
a region :]e !re c be1 if n full mutual 
compreh5sion1 at  lea/ a l>ge measure ( 
practical agreem5t & will+ co-op]ation4 
,philosophy has nev] t\*$ ! mass ( m5   
except ?r\gh religion4  ,&1 ?\gh !      
p>allel is n complete1 x is safe to say 
t  sci5ce w nev] t\* !m unaid$ by its   
practical applications4  ,its wond]s may
 be catalogu$ = purposes ( education1 !y
 may be  illu/rat$ by arre/+ exp]im5ts1 
by numb]s & magnitudes :i*  />tle or    
fatigue ! imag9ation2 b !y w =m no      
famili>  portion ( ! intellectual       
furniture ( ord9>y m5 unless !y be      
connect$1 h[ev] remotely1 ) ! conduct ( 
ord9>y life4 ,critics  h made m]ry ov] !
 naive self-importance :i* repres5t$    
man z ! c5tre & f9al cause ( ! univ]se1 
& conceiv$ !  /up5d\s me*anism ( nature 

z prim>ily design$ to satisfy 8  wants &
 m9i/] to 8 ent]ta9m5t4 ,b !re is ano!r1
 & an  opposite1 dang] into :i* x is    
possible to fall4 ,! mat]ial _w1        
h[soev] x may h ga9$ 9 sublimity1 has1  
"u ! t\* (  sci5ce1 lo/ 7s to speak7 9  
dome/ic *>m4 ,except :]e x affects  !   
imm$iate ne$s ( organic life1 x may seem
 s remote f !  conc]ns ( m5 t 9 !       
majority x w r\se no curiosity1 :ile  ( 
^? :o are fasc9at$ by its m>vels1 n a   
few w be *ill$  by its imp]sonal &      
indiff]5t imm5sity4    ,= ?is latt] mood
 only religion or religi\s philosophy c 
supply  a cure4 ,b = ! =m]1 !           
appropriate rem$y is ! p]petual  /imulus
 :i* ! influ5ce ( sci5ce on ! bus9ess ( 
mank9d  (f]s to _! sluggi% curiosity4 ,&
 ev5 n[ ,i believe ?is  influ5ce to be  
und]rat$4 ,if 9 ! la/ hundr$ ye>s ! :ole
  mat]ial sett+ ( civilis$ life has     
alt]$1 we owe x nei!r to  politicians   
nor to political in/itutions4 ,we owe x 
to ! comb9$  ef=ts ( ^? :o h advanc$    
sci5ce & ^? :o h appli$  x4 ,if our     

outlook ^u ! ,univ]se has suff]$        
modifications 9  detail s great & s     
num]\s t !y am\nt collectively to a     
revolution1 x is to m5 ( sci5ce we owe  
x1 n to !ologians or  philosoph]s4 ,on  
^! inde$ new & weighty responsibilities 
are  be+ ca/4 ,!y h to h>monise & to    
coord9ate1 to prev5t !  new f be+       
"o-sid$1 to pres]ve ! valuable ess5ce ( 
:at is  old4 ,b sci5ce is ! great       
in/rum5t ( social *ange1 all !  great]  
because its object is n *ange b k2 & its
 sil5t  appropriation ( ?is dom9ant     
function1 amid ! d9 ( political &       
religi\s /rife1 is ! mo/ vital ( all !  
revolutions :i* h  m>k$ ! developm5t (  
mod]n civilisation4    ,x may seem      
fanciful to f9d 9 a s+le rec5t aspect ( 
?is  revolution an influ5ce :i*         
resembles religion or patriotism 9  its 
appeals to ! high] side ( ord9>y        
*>act]s--especially  s9ce we are        
accu/om$ to reg>d ! appropriation by    
indu/ry (  sci5tific discov]ies m]ely z 
a means ( multiply+ ! mat]ial           

conv5i5ces ( life4 ,b if x be rememb]$ t
 ?is process br+s  va/ sections ( e     
indu/rial community into admir+ relation
  ) ! highe/ intellectual a*ievem5t1 & !
 mo/ dis9t]e/$  se>* = tru?2 t ^? :o    
live by m9i/]+ to ! common  wants (     
av]age humanity lean = support on ^? :o 
se>* among  ! deepe/ my/]ies ( ,nature2 
t _! dep5d5ce is rew>d$  by gr[+        
success2 t success gives 9 its turn an  
inc5tive to  individual ef=t 9 no wise  
to be measur$ by p]sonal expectation (  
ga92 t ! en]gies ?us ar\s$ may affect ! 
:ole "*  ( ! community1 spread+ !       
b5efic5t contagion ( hope & high        
endeav\r ?r\gh *annels sc>cely kn[n1 to 
work]s#c 9 fields  ! mo/ remote2 if all 
?is be borne 9 m9d x may p]haps seem n  
unwor?y ( ! place ,i h assign$ to x4    
,b ,i d n (f] ?is speculation1 :atev] be
 its wor?1 z an  answ] to my orig9al "q4
 ,x is b an aid to optimism1 n a  reply 
to pessimism4 ,su* a reply c only be    
giv5 by a sociology  :i* has arriv$ at  
sci5tific conclusions on ! life-hi/ory (

  diff]5t types ( society1 & has ris5   
above ! empirical &  m]ely int]rogative 
po9t ( view :i*1 = want ( a bett]1 ,i  h
 adopt$ 9 ?is address4 ,no su* sociology
 exi/s at pres5t1 or  seems likely soon 
to be creat$4 ,9 its abs5ce !           
conclusions at  :i* ,i provisionally    
arrive are t we _c reg>d decad5ce &     
arre/$ developm5t z less normal 9 human 
communities ?an progress2  ?\gh ! po9t  
at :i* ! en]gy ( advance is exhau/$ 7if1
  & :5 x is rea*$7 v>ies 9 diff]5t races
 & civilisations3  t ! int]nal causes by
 :i* progress is enc\rag$1 h9d]$1  or   
rev]s$1 lie to a great ext5t beyond !   
field ( ord9>y  political discussion1 & 
are n easily express$ 9 curr5t political
  t]m9ology3 t ! influ5ce :i* a sup]ior 
civilisation1  :e!r act+ by example or  
impos$ by =ce1 may h 9 advanc+  an      
inf]ior "o1 ?\gh (t5 b5efic5t1 is n     
likely to be self  support+2 its )drawal
 w be foll[$ by decad5ce1 unless !  "* (
 ! civilisation be 9 h>mony bo? ) !     
acquir$  temp]am5t & ! innate capacities

 ( ^? :o h be5 induc$ to  accept x3 t z 
reg>ds ^? nations :i* /ill advance 9    
virtue  ( _! own inh]5t en]gies1 ?\gh "t
 has br\ght p]haps new  causes (        
disquiet1 x has br\ght also new gr\nds (
 hope2 & t  :atev] be ! p]ils 9 front ( 
u1 !re are1 s f>1 no symptoms  ei!r (   
pause or ( regression 9 ! onw>d movem5t 
:i* = m  ?an a ?\s& ye>s has be5        
*>act]i/ic ( ,we/]n civilisation4       
,,notes3    #a ,! #8,ea/' is a t]m mo/  
loosely us$4 ,x does n "h include  ,*9a 
& ,japan & does include p>ts ( ,africa4 
,! obs]vations  :i* foll[ h no ref]5ce  
ei!r to ! ,jews or to ! comm]cial       
ari/ocracies ( ,phnician orig94    #b   
,beliefs include k4    #c ,?is rem>k    
arises out ( a tra9 ( ?\ght sugge/$ by  
two  que/ions :i* are v p]t95t to !     
subject ( ! ,address4    7#a7 ,is a due 
succession ( m5 above ! av]age 9 orig9al
 capacity  necess>y to ma9ta9 social    
progress8 &    7#b7 ,if s1 c we discov] 
any law accord+ to :i* su* m5 are       
produc$8    ,i ent]ta9 no d\bt myself t 

! answ] to ! fir/ "q  %\ld be 9 !       
affirmative4 ,democracy is an excell5t  
?+2 b1  ?\gh q consi/5t ) progress1 x is
 n progressive p] se4  ,its value is    
regulative n dynamic2 & if x meant 7z x 
nev] does7  sub/antial uni=mity1 in/ead 
( legal equality1 we %\ld become        
fossilis$ at once4 ,movem5t may be      
controll$ or *eck$ by ! _m2  x is       
initiat$ & made effective by ! few4 ,if 
7= ! sake (  illu/ration7 we suppose    
m5tal capacity 9 all its _m =ms to be   
m5surable & comm5surable1 & !n imag9e   
two societies possess+  ! same av]age   
capacity--b an av]age made up 9 "o case 
( equal  units1 9 ! o!r ( a majority    
slightly bel[ ! av]age & a  m9ority mu* 
above x1 few c\ld d\bt t ! second1 n !  
fir/1  w\ld %[ ! greate/ aptitude =     
movem5t4 ,x might g wrong1 b  x w\ld g4 
,! second "q--h[ is ?is orig9ality 79   
its high]  manife/ations call$ g5ius7   
effectively produc$8 is n s simple4     
,exclud+ education 9 its n>r[e/         
s5se--:i* few w\ld reg>d z  hav+ mu* to 

d ) ! matt]--! only alt]natives seem to 
be !  foll[+3    ,orig9al capacity may  
be no m ?an "o ( ! ord9>y v>iations     
incid5tal to h]$ity4 ,a community may   
bre$ a m9ority ?us  exceptionally gift$1
 z x bre$s a m9ority ( m5 ov] six feet  
six4  ,!re may be an av]age dec5nial    
output ( cong5ital g5iuses z  !re is an 
av]age dec5nial output ( cong5ital      
idiots--?\gh !  numb] is likely to be   
small]4    ,b if ?is be ! sole cause ( !
 ph5om5on1 :y does ! same race  app>5tly
 produce _m m5 ( g5ius 9 "o g5]ation &  
few 9  ano!r8 ,:y are ye>s ( abundance s
 (t5 foll[$ by long p]iods  ( /]ility8  
,! mo/ obvi\s explanation ( ?is w\ld    
seem to be t 9 "s  p]iods circum/ances  
give _m op5+s to g5ius1 9 "s p]iods     
few4 ,! g5ius is con/antly produc$2 b x 
is only occasionally  recognis$4    ,9  
?is !re mu/ be "s tru?4 ,a mob orator 9 
,turkey1 a religi\s  re=m] 9 sev5te5?   
c5tury ,spa91 a milit>y lead] 9 !       
,s&wi* isl&s1 w\ld h>dly get _! *ance4  
,yet ! !ory (  opportunity c sc>cely be 

reckon$ a complete explanation4 ,= x    
leaves unacc\nt$ = ! v>iety ( g5ius :i* 
has 9 "s  c\ntries m>k$ epo*s ( vigor\s 
national developm5t4 ,a!ns 9  ! fif? &  
f\r? c5turies1 ,flor5ce 9 ! fifte5? &   
e>ly  sixte5? c5turies1 ,holl& 9 ! lat] 
sixte5? & sev5te5?  c5turies1 are !     
typical examples4 ,9 su* p]iods !       
opportunities  ( /atesm51 soldi]s1      
orators1 & diplomati/s1 may h be5       
specially frequ5t4 ,b :5ce came ! poets1
 ! sculptors1 !  pa9t]s1 ! philosoph]s &
 ! m5 ( lett]s8 ,:at peculi>            
opportunities _h !y8    ,! only         
explanation1 if we reject ! idea ( a m]e
 co9cid5ce1  seems to be1 t q ap>t f    
opportunity1 ! exceptional /ir  & f]v\r 
( national life evokes or may evoke     
qualities :i* 9  ord9>y times lie       
dormant1 unkn[n ev5 to _! possessors4 ,!
  pot5tial ,miltons are #8mute' &       
#8+lori\s' n because !y _c  f9d a       
publi%]1 b because !y h no?+ !y want to 
publi%4  ,!y lack ! k9d ( inspiration   
:i*1 on ?is view1 fl[s f  social        

surr\nd+s :]e great ?+s1 ?\gh ( q ano!r 
k9d1  are be+ done & ?\ght4    ,if ?is  
!ory be true 7& x is n )\t its          
difficulties7 "o  w\ld l to "k :e!r ^!  
und\bt$ outbur/s ( orig9ality  9 ! high]
 & r>] =m ( g5ius1 are symptomatic ( a  
g5]al  rise 9 ! numb] ( p]sons exhibit+ 
orig9al capacity ( a m  ord9>y type4 ,if
 s1 !n ! conclusion w\ld seem to be t "s
  k9d ( widespread exhil>ation or       
excitem5t is requir$ 9 ord] to  enable  
any community to extract ! be/ results f
 ! raw mat]ial  transmitt$ to x by      
natural inh]itance4      ,cambridge3    
,pr9t$ at ! ,univ]sity ,press4          
,transcrib]'s ,note      ,9 ?is file1   
text 9 italics is indicat$ by           
und]scores4    ,on page #da1 8,greek 9  
culture ,roman by political desc5t0 0   
correct$  to 8,greek 9 culture1 ,roman  
by political desc5t40