,,ic>us ,,or ,,! ,,future ,,( ,,sci5ce ,,by ,,! ,,same ,,au?or ,! ,a4,b4,c4 ,,( ,,atoms #abmo41 clo? #b4jj ,9 ! la/ few ye>s ! /udy ( ,radioactivity has br\ght ab\t amaz+ advances 9 our k ( ! prop]ties & nature ( ! ,atom2 & into ?is fasc9at+ wond]l& ( ! inf9itely small yet inf9itely complex & inf9itely full ( en]gy1 ,mr4 ,russell introduces u4 ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,fif? ,av5ue1 ,new ,york ,,ic>us ,,or ,! ,future ( ,sci5ce ,,by ,,b]tr& ,,russell ,illu/ration ,,new ,,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,,fif? ,,av5ue ,copyright1 #aibd ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,dutton ,company ,all ,rights ,res]v$ ,fir/ pr9t+1 ,april1 #aibd ,second pr9t+1 ,june1 #aibd ,?ird pr9t+1 ,octob]1 #aibd ,f\r? pr9t+1 ,decemb]1 #aibd ,fif? ,pr9t+1 ,decemb]1 #aibd ,six? ,pr9t+1 ,june1 #aibe ,sev5? ,pr9t+1 ,june1 #aibe ,pr9t$ 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates ( ,am]ica ,,cont5ts ,,page ,i4 ,introductory #e ,,ii4 ,effects ( ! ,physical ,sci5ces #ae ,,iii4 ,! ,increase ( ,organization #bc ,,iv4 ,! ,an?ropological ,sci5ces #dc ,conclusion #eg ,,ic>us ,,or ,,! ,,future ,,( ,,sci5ce ,i4 ,,introductory ,mr4 ,haldane's ,da$alus has set =? an attractive picture ( ! future z x may become ?r\gh ! use ( sci5tific discov]ies to promote human happ9ess4 ,mu* z ,i %\ld l to agree ) 8 =eca/1 a long exp]i5ce ( /atesm5 & gov]nm5ts has made me some:at sceptical4 ,i am compell$ to fe> t sci5ce w be us$ to promote ! p[] ( dom9ant gr\ps1 r ?an to make m5 happy4 ,ic>us1 hav+ be5 taught to fly by 8 fa!r ,da$alus1 0 de/roy$ by 8 ra%ness4 ,i fe> t ! same fate may ov]take ! populations :om mod]n m5 ( sci5ce h taught to fly4 ,"s ( ! dang]s inh]5t 9 ! progress ( sci5ce :ile we reta9 our pres5t political & economic in/itutions are set =? 9 ! foll[+ pages4 ,?is subject is s va/ t x is impossible1 )9 a limit$ space1 to d m ?an outl9e "s ( its aspects4 ,! _w 9 :i* we live diff]s pr(\ndly f t ( ,que5 ,anne's "t1 & ?is diff]5ce is ma9ly attributable to sci5ce4 ,t is to say1 ! diff]5ce w\ld be v mu* less ?an x is b = v>i\s sci5tific discov]ies1 b result$ f ^? discov]ies by ! op]ation ( ord9>y human nature4 ,! *anges t h be5 br\ght ab\t h be5 p>tly good1 p>tly bad2 :e!r1 9 ! end1 sci5ce w prove to h be5 a bless+ or a curse to mank9d1 is to my m9d1 /ill a d\btful "q4 ,a sci5ce may affect human life 9 two diff]5t ways4 ,on ! "o h&1 )\t alt]+ m5's passions or _! g5]al outlook1 x may increase _! p[] ( gratify+ _! desires4 ,on ! o!r h&1 x may op]ate ?r\gh an effect ^u ! imag9ative conception ( ! _w1 ! !ology or philosophy :i* is accept$ 9 practice by en]getic m54 ,! latt] is a fasc9at+ /udy1 b ,i %all almo/ :olly ignore x1 9 ord] to br+ my subject )9 a manageable compass4 ,i %all conf9e myself almo/ :olly to ! effect ( sci5ce 9 enabl+ u to gratify our passions m freely1 :i* has hi!rto be5 f> ! m important ( ! two4 ,f our po9t ( view1 we may divide ! sci5ces into ?ree gr\ps3 physical1 biological1 & an?ropological4 ,9 ! physical gr\p ,i include *emi/ry1 & broadly speak+ any sci5ce conc]n$ ) ! prop]ties ( matt] ap>t f life4 ,9 ! an?ropological gr\p ,i include all /udies specially conc]n$ ) man3 human physiology & psy*ology 7betwe5 :i* no %>p l9e c be drawn71 an?ropology1 hi/ory1 sociology1 & economics4 ,all ^! /udies c be illum9at$ by consid]ations drawn f biology2 = in/ance1 ,riv]s ?rew a new light on p>ts ( economics by adduc+ facts ab\t l&$ prop]ty among birds dur+ ! bre$+ season4 ,b 9 spite ( _! connection ) biology--a connection :i* is likely to gr[ clos] z "t goes on--!y are broadly di/+ui%$ f biology by _! me?ods & data1 & des]ve to be gr\p$ ap>t1 at any rate 9 a sociological inquiry4 ,! effect ( ! biological sci5ces1 s f>1 has be5 v small4 ,no d\bt ,d>w9ism & ! idea ( evolution affect$ m5's imag9ative outlook2 argum5ts 7 d]iv$ 9 fav\r ( free competition1 & also ( nationalism4 ,b ^! effects 7 ( ! sort t ,i propose n to consid]4 ,x is probable t great effects w come f ^! sci5ces soon] or lat]4 ,m5delism might h revolutioniz$ agriculture1 & no d\bt "s simil> !ory w d s soon] or lat]4 ,bact]iology may enable u to ext]m9ate our enemies by disease4 ,! /udy ( h]$ity may 9 "t make eug5ics an exact sci5ce1 & p]haps we %all 9 a lat] age be able to det]m9e at w ! sex ( our *ildr54 ,?is w\ld probably lead to an excess ( males1 involv+ a complete *ange 9 family in/itutions4 ,b ^! speculations belong to ! future4 ,i d n propose to deal ) ! possible future effects ( biology1 bo? because my k ( biology is v limit$1 & because ! subject has be5 admirably treat$ by ,mr4 ,haldane4#a #a ,see 8 ,da$alus1 or ,sci5ce & ! ,future4 ,! an?ropological sci5ces are ^? f :i*1 a priori1 we might h expect$ ! greate/ social effects1 b hi!rto ?is has n prov$ to be ! case1 p>tly because ^! sci5ces are mo/ly /ill at an e>ly /age ( developm5t4 ,ev5 economics has n s f> _h mu* effect4 ,:]e x has seem$ to h1 ?is is because x advocat$ :at 0 indep5d5tly desir$4 ,hi!rto1 ! mo/ effective ( ! an?ropological sci5ces has be5 m$ic9e1 ?r\gh its influ5ce on sanitation & public heal?1 & ?r\gh ! fact t x has discov]$ h[ to deal ) mal>ia & yell[ fev]4 ,bir?-control is also a v important social fact :i* comes into ?is category4 ,b al?\gh ! future effect ( ! an?ropological sci5ces 7to :i* ,i %all return pres5tly7 is illimitable1 ! effect up to ! pres5t has be5 conf9$ )9 fairly n>r[ limits4 ,"o g5]al obs]vation to beg9 )4 ,sci5ce has increas$ man's control ov] nature1 & might !re=e be suppos$ likely to increase 8 happ9ess & well-be+4 ,?is w\ld be ! case if m5 7 rational1 b 9 fact !y are bundles ( passions & in/9cts4 ,an animal species 9 a /able environm5t1 if x does n die out1 acquires an equilibrium betwe5 its passions & ! conditions ( its life4 ,if ! conditions are sudd5ly alt]$1 ! equilibrium is upset4 ,wolves 9 a /ate ( nature h difficulty 9 gett+ food1 & !re=e ne$ ! /imulus ( a v insi/5t hung]4 ,! result is t _! desc5dants1 dome/ic dogs1 ov]-eat if !y are all[$ to d s4 ,:5 a c]ta9 am\nt ( some?+ is useful1 & ! difficulty ( obta9+ x is dim9i%$1 in/9ct w usually lead an animal to excess 9 ! new circum/ances4 ,! sudd5 *ange produc$ by sci5ce has upset ! balance betwe5 our in/9cts & our circum/ances1 b 9 directions n suffici5tly notic$4 ,ov]-eat+ is n a s]i\s dang]1 b ov]-fight+ is4 ,! human in/9cts ( p[] & rivalry1 l ! dog's wolfi% appetite w ne$ to be artificially curb$1 if indu/rialism is to succe$4 ,,ii4 ,,effects ,,( ,,! ,,physical ,,sci5ces ,mu* ! greate/ "p ( ! *anges :i* sci5ce has made 9 social life is due to ! physical sci5ces1 z is evid5t :5 we consid] t !y br\ght ab\t ! indu/rial revolution4 ,?is is a trite topic1 ab\t :i* ,i %all say z little z my subject p]mits4 ,!re are1 h[ev]1 "s po9ts :i* mu/ be made4 ,fir/1 indu/rialism1 /ill has great p>ts ( ! e>?'s surface to conqu]4 ,russia & ,india are v imp]fectly indu/rializ$2 ,*9a h>dly at all4 ,9 ,s\? ,am]ica !re is room = imm5se developm5t4 ,"o ( ! effects ( indu/rialism is to make ! _w an economic unit3 its ultimate consequ5ces w be v l>gely due to ?is fact4 ,b be=e ! _w c be effectively organiz$ z a unit1 x w probably be necess>y to develop indu/rially all ! regions capable ( developm5t t are at pres5t backw>d4 ,! effects ( indu/rialism *ange z x becomes m wide-spread2 ?is mu/ be rememb]$ 9 any attempt to argue f its pa/ to its future4 ,! second po9t ab\t indu/rialism is t x increases ! productivity ( lab\r1 & ?us makes m luxuries possible4 ,at fir/1 9 ,engl&1 ! *ief luxury a*iev$ 0 a l>g] population ) an actual l[]+ ( ! /&>d ( life4 ,!n came a gold5 age :5 wages increas$1 h\rs ( lab\r dim9i%$1 & simultane\sly ! middle-class grew m prosp]\s4 ,t 0 :ile ,great ,brita9 0 /ill supreme4 ,) ! gr[? ( =eign indu/rialism1 a new epo* began4 ,indu/rial organizations h seldom succe$$ 9 becom+ _w-wide1 & h consequ5tly become national4 ,competition1 =m]ly betwe5 individual firms1 is n[ ma9ly betwe5 nations1 & is !re=e conduct$ by me?ods q diff]5t f ^? contemplat$ by ! classical economi/s4 ,mod]n indu/rialism is a /ruggle betwe5 nations = two ?+s1 m>kets & raw mat]ials1 z well z = ! %e] pleasure ( dom9ion4 ,! lab\r :i* is set free f provid+ ! necess>ies ( life t5ds to be m & m absorb$ by national rivalry4 ,!re are fir/ ! arm$ =ces ( ! ,/ate2 !n ^? :o provide munitions ( w>1 f ! raw m9]als up to ! f9i%$ product2 !n ! diplomatic & consul> s]vices2 !n ! tea*]s ( patriotism 9 s*ools2 !n ! ,press4 ,all ( ^! p]=m o!r functions z well1 b ! *ief purpose is to m9i/] to int]national competition4 ,z ano!r class ^: lab\rs are devot$ to ! same end1 we mu/ add a consid]able proportion ( ! m5 ( sci5ce4 ,^! m5 inv5t cont9ually m elaborate me?ods ( attack & def5ce4 ,! net result ( _! lab\rs is to dim9i% ! proportion ( ! population t c be put into ! fight+ l9e1 s9ce m are requir$ = munitions4 ,?is might seem a boon1 b 9 fact w> is n[-a-days prim>ily aga9/ ! civilian population1 & 9 a defeat$ c\ntry !y are liable to suff] j z mu* z ! soldi]s4 ,x is sci5ce above all t has det]m9$ ! importance ( raw mat]ials 9 int]national competition4 ,coal & iron & oil1 especially1 are ! bases ( p[]1 & !nce ( weal?4 ,! nation :i* possesses !m1 & has ! indu/rial skill requir$ to utilize !m 9 w>1 c acquire m>kets by arm$ =ce1 & levy tribute ^u less =tunate nations4 ,economi/s h und]e/imat$ ! "p play$ by milit>y pr[ess 9 ! acquisition ( weal?4 ,! l&$ ari/ocracies ( ,europe 71 9 orig91 w>like invad]s4 ,_! defeat by ! b\rgeoisie 9 ! ,fr5* ,revolution1 & ! fe> :i* ?is g5]at$ 9 ! ,duke ( ,well+ton1 facilitat$ ! rise ( ! middle class4 ,! w>s ( ! eighte5? c5tury decid$ t ,engl& 0 to be ri*] ?an ,france4 ,! traditional economi/'s rules = ! di/ribution ( weal? hold only :5 m5's actions are gov]n$ by law1 i4e4 :5 mo/ p ?9k ! issue unimportant4 ,! issues t p h consid]$ vital h be5 decid$ by civil w>s or w>s betwe5 nations4 ,& = ! pres5t1 ow+ to sci5ce1 ! art ( w> consi/s 9 possess+ coal1 iron1 oil1 & ! indu/rial skill to "w !m4 ,= ! sake ( simplicity1 ,i omit o!r raw mat]ials1 s9ce !y d n affect ! ess5ce ( our problem4 ,we may say1 !re=e1 speak+ v g5]ally1 t m5 h us$ ! increas$ productivity :i* !y owe to sci5ce = ?ree *ief purposes 9 succession3 fir/1 to increase ! population2 !n1 to raise ! /&>d ( com=t2 &1 f9ally1 to provide m en]gy to w>4 ,?is la/ result has be5 *iefly br\ght ab\t by competition = m>kets1 :i* l$ to competition = raw mat]ials1 especially ! raw mat]ials ( munitions4 ,,iii4 ,,! ,,increase ,,( ,,organization ,! /imulation ( nationalism :i* has tak5 place 9 mod]n times is1 h[ev]1 due v l>gely to ano!r factor1 namely ! increase ( organization1 :i* is ( ! v ess5ce ( indu/rialism4 ,:]ev] exp5sive fix$ capital is requir$1 organization on a l>ge scale is ( c\rse necess>y4 ,9 view ( ! economies ( l>ge scale production1 organization 9 m>ket+ also becomes ( great importance4 ,= "s purposes1 if n = all1 _m indu/ries come to be organiz$ nationally1 s z to be 9 effect "o bus9ess 9 ea* nation4 ,sci5ce has n only br\ght ab\t ! ne$ ( l>ge organizations1 b also ! te*nical possibility ( _! exi/5ce4 ,)\t railways1 telegraphs1 & telephones1 control f a c5tre is v difficult4 ,9 anci5t empires1 & 9 ,*9a d[n to mod]n times1 prov9ces 7 gov]n$ by practically indep5d5t satraps or proconsuls1 :o 7 appo9t$ by ! c5tral gov]nm5t1 b decid$ almo/ all que/ions on _! own initiative4 ,if !y displeas$ ! sov]eign1 !y c\ld only be controll$ by civil w>1 ( :i* ! issue 0 d\btful4 ,until ! inv5tion ( ! telegraph1 ambassadors _h a great measure ( indep5d5ce1 s9ce x 0 (t5 necess>y to act )\t wait+ = ord]s f home4 ,:at appli$ 9 politics appli$ also 9 bus9ess3 an organization controll$ f ! c5tre _h to be v loosely knit1 & to all[ mu* autonomy to subord9ates4 ,op9ion z well z action 0 difficult to m\ld f a c5tre1 & local v>iations m>r$ ! uni=mity ( p>ty cre$s4 ,n[-a-days all ?is is *ang$4 ,telegraph1 telephone1 & wireless make x easy to transmit ord]s f a c5tre3 railways & /eam]s make x easy to transport troops 9 case ! ord]s are disobey$4 ,mod]n me?ods ( pr9t+ & adv]tis+ make x enorm\sly *eap] to produce & di/ribute "o newspap] ) a l>ge circulation ?an _m ) small circulations2 consequ5tly1 9 s f> z ! ,press controls op9ion1 !re is uni=mity1 &1 9 p>ticul>1 !re is uni=mity ( news4 ,elem5t>y education1 except 9 s f> z religi\s d5om9ations introduce v>iety1 is conduct$ on a uni=m patt]n decid$ by ! ,/ate1 by means ( tea*]s :om ! ,/ate has tra9$1 z f> z possible1 to imitate ! regul>ity & mutual simil>ity ( ma*9es produc$ to /&>d4 ,?us ! mat]ial & psy*ological conditions = a great int5sity ( organization h increas$ p>i passu1 b ! basis ( ! :ole developm5t is sci5tific inv5tion 9 ! purely physical realm4 ,increas$ productivity has play$ its "p1 by mak+ x possible to set ap>t m lab\r = propag&a1 "u :i* head are to be includ$ adv]tisem5t1 ! c9ema1 ! ,press1 education1 politics1 & religion4 ,broadca/+ is a new me?od likely to acquire great pot5cy z soon z p are satisfi$ t x is n a me?od ( propag&a4 ,political controv]sies1 z ,mr4 ,graham ,wallas has po9t$ out1 ought to be conduct$ 9 quantitative t]ms4 ,if sociology 7 "o ( ! sci5ces t _h affect$ social in/itutions 7:i* x is n71 ?is w\ld be ! case4 ,! dispute betwe5 an>*ism & bureaucracy at pres5t t5ds to take ! =m ( "o side ma9ta9+ t we want no organization1 :ile ! o!r ma9ta9s t we want z mu* z possible4 ,a p]son imbu$ ) ! sci5tific _s w\ld h>dly ev5 exam9e ^! extreme positions4 ,"s p ?9k t we keep our rooms too hot = heal?1 o!rs t we keep !m too cold4 ,if ?is 7 a political "q1 "o p>ty w\ld ma9ta9 t ! be/ temp]ature is ! absolute z]o1 ! o!r t x is ! melt+ po9t ( iron4 ,^? :o ma9ta9$ any int]m$iate position w\ld be abus$ z timor\s "t-s]v]s1 conceal$ ag5ts ( ! o!r side1 m5 :o ru9$ ! en?usiasm ( a sacr$ cause by tepid appeals to m]e reason4 ,any man :o _h ! c\rage to say t our rooms ought to be nei!r v hot nor v cold w\ld be abus$ by bo? p>ties1 & probably %ot 9 ,no ,man's ,l&4 ,possibly "s day politics may become m rational1 b s f> !re is n ! fa9te/ indication ( a *ange 9 ?is direction4 ,to a rational m9d1 ! "q is n3 ,d we want organization or d we n8 ,! "q is3 ,h[ mu* organization d we want1 & :]e & :5 & ( :at k9d8 ,9 spite ( a temp]am5tal lean+ to an>*ism1 ,i am p]suad$ t an indu/rial _w _c ma9ta9 itself aga9/ int]nal disruptive =ces )\t a great deal m organization ?an we h at pres5t4 ,x is n ! am\nt ( organization1 b its k9d & its purposes1 t cause our tr\bles4 ,b be=e tackl+ ?is "q1 let u pause = a mom5t to ask ourselves :at is ! measure ( ! int5sity ( organization 9 a giv5 community4 ,a man's acts are p>tly det]m9$ by spontane\s impulse1 p>tly by ! consci\s or unconsci\s effects ( ! v>i\s gr\ps to :i* he belongs4 ,a man :o works 7say7 on a railway or 9 a m9e is1 9 8 work+-h\rs almo/ entirely det]m9$ 9 8 actions by ^? :o direct ! collective lab\r ( :i* he =ms "p4 ,if he decides to /rike1 8 action is aga9 n individual1 b det]m9$ by 8 ,union4 ,:5 he votes = ,p>liam5t1 p>ty caucuses h limit$ 8 *oice to "o ( two or ?ree m51 & p>ty propag&a has induc$ him to accept 9 toto "o ( ! two or ?ree blocks ( op9ions :i* =m ! rival p>ty programmes4 ,8 *oice betwe5 ! p>ties may be individual1 b x may also be det]m9$ by ! action ( "s gr\p1 su* z a trade union1 :i* collectively supports "o p>ty4 ,8 newspap]-read+ exposes him to great organiz$ =ces2 s does ! c9ema1 if he goes to x4 ,8 *oice ( a wife is probably spontane\s1 except t he mu/ *oose a woman ( 8 own class4 ,b 9 ! education ( 8 *ildr5 he is almo/ entirely p[]less3 !y mu/ h ! education :i* is provid$4 ,organization ?us det]m9es _m vital ?+s 9 8 life4 ,comp>e him ) a h&icraftsman or peasant-proprietor :o _c read & does n h 8 *ildr5 educat$1 & x becomes cle> :at is meant by say+ t indu/rialism has increas$ ! int5sity ( organization4 ,to def9e ?is t]m1 we mu/1 ,i ?9k1 exclude ! unconsci\s effects ( gr\ps1 except z causes facilitat+ ! consci\s effects4 ,we may def9e ! int5sity ( organization to :i* a giv5 individual is subject z ! proportion ( 8 acts :i* is det]m9$ by ! ord]s or advice ( "s gr\p1 express$ ?r\gh democratic decisions or executive (fic]s4 ,! int5sity ( organization 9 a community may !n be def9$ z ! av]age int5sity = its sev]al memb]s4 ,! int5sity ( organization is increas$ n only :5 a man belongs to m organizations1 b also :5 ! organizations to :i* he already belongs play a l>g] "p 9 8 life1 z1 = example1 ! ,/ate plays a l>g] "p 9 w> ?an 9 peace4 ,ano!r matt] :i* ne$s to be treat$ quantitatively is ! degree ( democracy1 olig>*y1 or mon>*y 9 an organization4 ,no organization belongs completely to any "o ( ! ?ree types4 ,!re mu/ be executive (fic]s1 :o w (t5 9 practice be able to decide policy1 ev5 if 9 !ory !y _c d s4 ,& ev5 if _! p[] dep5ds ^u p]suasion1 !y may s completely control ! relevant publicity t !y c always rely ^u a majority4 ,! directors ( a railway company1 = in/ance1 are to all int5ts & purposes uncontroll$ by ! %>ehold]s1 :o h no adequate means ( organiz+ an opposition if !y %\ld wi% to d s4 ,9 ,am]ica1 a railroad presid5t is almo/ a mon>*4 ,9 p>ty politics1 ! p[] ( lead]s1 al?\gh x dep5ds ^u p]suasion1 cont9ually increases z pr9t$ propag&a becomes m important4 ,= ^! reasons1 ev5 :]e =mal democracy increases1 ! real degree ( democratic control t5ds to dim9i%1 except on a few que/ions :i* r\se /rong popul> passions4 ,! result ( ^! causes is t1 9 consequ5ce ( sci5tific inv5tions :i* facilitate c5tralization & propag&a1 gr\ps become m organiz$1 m discipl9$1 m gr\p-consci\s1 & m docile to lead]s4 ,! effect ( lead]s on foll[]s is increas$1 & ! control ( ev5ts by a few prom95t p]sonalities becomes m m>k$4 ,9 all ?is !re w\ld be no?+ v tragic1 b = ! fact1 ) :i* sci5ce has no?+ to d1 t organization is almo/ :olly national4 ,if m5 7 actuat$ by ! love ( ga91 z ! old] economi/s suppos$1 ?is w\ld n be ! case2 ! same causes :i* h l$ to national tru/s w\ld h l$ to int]national tru/s4 ,?is has happ5$ 9 a few in/ances1 b n on a suffici5tly wide scale to affect politics or economics v vitally4 ,rivalry is1 ) mo/ well-to-d en]getic p1 a /rong] motive ?an love ( money4 ,successful rivalry requires organization ( rival =ces2 ! t5d5cy is = a bus9ess su* z oil1 = example1 to organize itself into two rival gr\ps1 betwe5 !m cov]+ ! _w4 ,!y might1 ( c\rse1 comb9e1 & !y w\ld no d\bt increase _! weal? if !y did s4 ,b comb9ation w\ld take ! ze/ out ( life4 ,! object ( a football team1 "o might say1 is to kick goals4 ,if two rival teams comb9$1 & kick$ ! ball alt]nately ov] ! two goals1 _m m goals w\ld be scor$4 ,nev]!less no "o sugge/s t ?is %\ld be done1 ! object ( a football team be+ n to kick goals b to w94 ,s ! object ( a big bus9ess is n to make money1 b to w9 9 ! conte/ ) "s o!r bus9ess4 ,if !re 7 no o!r bus9ess to be defeat$1 ! :ole ?+ w\ld become un9t]e/+4 ,?is rivalry has atta*$ itself to nationalism1 & enli/$ ! support ( ! ord9>y citiz5s ( ! c\ntries conc]n$2 !y seldom "k :at x is t !y are support+1 b1 l ! spectators at a football-mat*1 !y gr[ en?usia/ic = _! own side4 ,! h>m t is be+ done by sci5ce & indu/rialism is almo/ :olly due to ! fact t1 :ile !y h prov$ /rong en\gh to produce a national organization ( economic =ces1 !y h n prov$ /rong en\gh to produce an int]national organization4 ,x is cle> t political int]nationalism su* z ! ,league ( ,nations 0 suppos$ to inaugurate1 w nev] be successful until we h economic int]nationalism1 :i* w\ld require1 z a m9imum1 an agreem5t betwe5 v>i\s national organizations divid+ among !m ! raw mat]ials & m>kets ( ! _w4 ,?is1 h[ev]1 c h>dly be br\ght ab\t :ile big bus9ess is controll$ by m5 :o are s ri* z to h gr[n indiff]5t to money1 & to be will+ to risk enorm\s losses = ! pleasure ( rivalry4 ,! increase ( organization 9 ! mod]n _w has made ! ideals ( lib]alism :olly inapplicable4 ,lib]alism1 f ,montesquieu to ,presid5t ,wilson1 0 bas$ ^u ! assumption ( a numb] ( m or less equal individuals or gr\ps1 ) no diff]5ces s vital t !y 7 will+ to die soon] ?an compromise4 ,x 0 suppos$ t !re 0 to be free competition betwe5 individuals & betwe5 ideas4 ,exp]i5ce has %[n1 h[ev]1 t ! exi/+ economic sy/em is incompatible ) all =ms ( free competition except betwe5 ,/ates by means ( armam5ts4 ,i %\ld wi%1 = my "p1 to pres]ve free competition betwe5 ideas1 ?\gh n betwe5 individuals & gr\ps1 b ?is is only possible by means ( :at an old-fa%ion$ lib]al w\ld reg>d z int]f]5ces ) p]sonal lib]ty4 ,s long z ! s\rces ( economic p[] rema9 9 private h&s1 !re w be no lib]ty except = ! few :o control ^? s\rces4 ,su* lib]al ideals z free trade1 free press1 unbias$ education1 ei!r already belong to ! pa/ or soon w d s4 ,"o ( ! triumphs ( e>ly lib]alism 9 ,engl& 0 ! e/abli%m5t ( p>liam5t>y control ov] ! army2 ?is 0 ! casus belli 9 ! ,civil ,w>1 & 0 decid$ by ! ,revolution ( #afhh4 ,x 0 effective s long z ,p>liam5t repres5t$ ! same class f :i* army (fic]s 7 drawn4 ,?is 0 /ill ! case ) ! late ,p>liam5t1 b may cease to be ! case ) ! adv5t ( a ,lab\r ,gov]nm5t4 ,russia1 ,hung>y1 ,italy1 ,spa91 & ,bav>ia h %[n 9 rec5t ye>s h[ frail democracy has become2 ea/ ( ! ,rh9e x l+]s only 9 outly+ regions4 ,con/itutional control ov] armam5ts mu/1 !re=e1 be reg>d$ z ano!r lib]al pr9cipal :i* is rapidly becom+ obsolete4 ,x w\ld seem probable t1 9 ! next fifty ye>s or s1 we %all see a /ill fur!r increase 9 ! p[] ( gov]nm5ts1 & a t5d5cy = gov]nm5ts to be su* z are desir$ by ! m5 :o control armam5ts & raw mat]ials4 ,! =ms ( democracy may survive 9 we/]n c\ntries1 s9ce ^? :o possess milit>y & economic p[] c control education & ! press1 & !re=e c usually secure a subs]vi5t democracy4 ,rival economic gr\ps w presumably rema9 associat$ ) rival nations1 & w fo/] nationalism 9 ord] to recruit _! football teams4 ,!re is1 h[ev]1 a hopeful elem5t 9 ! problem4 ,! planet is ( f9ite size1 b ! mo/ effici5t size = an organization is cont9ually increas$ by new sci5tific inv5tions4 ,! _w becomes m & m ( an economic unity4 ,be=e v long ! te*nical conditions w exi/ = organiz+ ! :ole _w z "o produc+ & consum+ unit4 ,if1 :5 t "t comes1 two rival gr\ps cont5d = ma/]y1 ! victor may be able to introduce t s+le _w-wide organization t is ne$$ to prev5t ! mutual ext]m9ation ( civiliz$ nations4 ,! _w :i* w\ld result w\ld be1 at fir/1 v diff]5t f ! dreams ( ei!r lib]als or sociali/s2 b x might gr[ less diff]5t ) ! lapse ( "t4 ,!re w\ld be at fir/ economic & political tyranny ( ! victors1 a dread ( r5ew$ upheavals1 & !re=e a dra/ic suppression ( lib]ty4 ,b if ! fir/ half-doz5 revolts 7 successfully repress$1 ! vanqui%$ w\ld give up hope1 & accept ! subord9ate place assign$ to !m by ! victors 9 ! great _w-tru/4 ,z soon z ! hold]s ( p[] felt secure1 !y w\ld gr[ less tyrannical & less en]getic4 ,! motive ( rivalry be+ remov$1 !y w\ld n "w s h>d z !y d n[1 & w\ld soon cease to exact su* h>d "w f _! subord9ates4 ,life at fir/ might be unpleasant1 b x w\ld at lea/ be possible1 :i* w\ld be en\gh to recomm5d ! sy/em aft] a long p]iod ( w>f>e4 ,giv5 a /able _w-organization1 economic & political1 ev5 if1 at fir/1 x re/$ ^u no?+ b arm$ =ce1 ! evils :i* n[ ?reat5 civilization w\ld gradually dim9i%1 & a m ?or\gh democracy ?an t :i* n[ exi/s might become possible4 ,i believe t1 ow+ to m5's folly1 a _w-gov]nm5t w only be e/abli%$ by =ce1 & w !re=e be at fir/ cruel & despotic4 ,b ,i believe t x is necess>y = ! pres]vation ( a sci5tific civilization1 & t1 if once realiz$1 x w gradually give rise to ! o!r conditions ( a tol]able exi/5ce4 ,,iv4 ,,! ,,an?ropological ,,sci5ces ,x rema9s to say some?+ ab\t ! future effects ( ! an?ropological sci5ces4 ,?is is ( c\rse extremely conjectural1 because we d n "k :at discov]ies w be made4 ,! effect is likely to be f> great] ?an we c n[ imag9e1 because ^! sci5ces are /ill 9 _! infancy4 ,i w1 h[ev]1 take a few po9ts on :i* to hang conjectures4 ,i d n wi% to be suppos$ to be mak+ prophecies3 ,i am only sugge/+ possibilities :i* x may be in/ructive to consid]4 ,bir?-control is a matt] ( great importance1 p>ticul>ly 9 relation to ! possibility ( a _w-gov]nm5t1 :i* c\ld h>dly be /able if "s nations increas$ _! population mu* m rapidly ?an o!rs4 ,at pres5t1 bir?-control is increas+ 9 all civiliz$ c\ntries1 ?\gh 9 mo/ x is oppos$ by gov]nm5ts4 ,?is opposition is due p>tly to m]e sup]/ition & desire to conciliate ! ,ca?olic vote1 p>tly to ! desire = l>ge armies & sev]e competition betwe5 wage-e>n]s1 s z to keep d[n wages4 ,9 spite ( ! opposition ( gov]nm5ts1 x seems probable t bir?-control w lead to a /ation>y population 9 mo/ :ite nations )9 ! next fifty ye>s4 ,!re c be no security t x w /op ) a /ation>y population2 x may g on to ! po9t :]e ! population dim9i%es4 ,! increase 9 ! practice ( bir?-control is an example ( a process contr>y to t se5 9 indu/rialism3 x repres5ts a victory ( individual ov] collective passions4 ,collectively1 ,fr5*m5 desire t ,france %\ld be popul\s1 9 ord] to be able to defeat h] enemies 9 w>4 ,individually1 !y desire t _! own families %\ld be small1 9 ord] to increase ! inh]itance ( _! *ildr5 & to dim9i% ! exp5se ( education4 ,! individual desire has triumph$ ov] ! collective desire1 & ev51 9 _m cases1 ov] religi\s scruples4 ,9 ?is case1 z 9 mo/ o!rs1 ! individual desire is less h>mful to ! _w ?an ! collective desire3 ! man :o acts f pure selfi%ness does less damage ?an ! man :o is actuat$ by 8public _s40 ,=1 s9ce m$ic9e & sanitation h dim9i%$ ! infant dea?-rate1 ! only *ecks to ov]-population t rema9 7ap>t f bir?-control7 are w> & fam9e4 ,s long z ?is cont9ues to be ! case1 ! _w mu/ ei!r h a ne>ly /ation>y population1 or employ w> to produce fam9e4 ,! latt] me?od1 :i* is t fav\r$ by oppon5ts ( bir?-control1 has be5 adopt$ on a l>ge scale s9ce #aiad2 x is h[ev] some:at wa/eful4 ,we require a c]ta9 numb] ( cattle & %eep1 & we take /eps to secure ! "r numb]4 ,if we 7 z indiff]5t ab\t !m z we are ab\t human be+s1 we %\ld produce f> too _m1 & cause ! surplus to die by ! sl[ mis]y ( "u-fe$+4 ,f>m]s w\ld consid] ?is plan extravagant1 & humanit>ians w\ld consid] x cruel4 ,b :]e human be+s are conc]n$1 x is consid]$ ! only prop] c\rse1 & works advocat+ any o!r are confiscat$ by ! police if !y are intelligible to ^? :om !y conc]n4 ,x mu/ be admitt$1 h[ev]1 t !re are c]ta9 dang]s4 ,be=e long ! population may actually dim9i%4 ,?is is already happ5+ 9 ! mo/ intellig5t sections ( ! mo/ intellig5t nations2 gov]nm5t opposition to bir?-control propag&a gives a biological advantage to /upidity1 s9ce x is *iefly /upid p :om gov]nm5ts succe$ 9 keep+ 9 ignorance4 ,be=e long1 bir?-control may become ne>ly univ]sal among ! :ite races2 x w !n n det]iorate _! quality1 b only dim9i% _! numb]s1 at a "t :5 unciviliz$ races are /ill prolific & are pres]v$ f a high dea?-rate by :ite sci5ce4 ,?is situation w lead to a t5d5cy--already %[n by ! ,fr5*--to employ m prolific races z m]c5>ies4 ,gov]nm5ts w oppose ! tea*+ ( bir?-control among ,africans1 = fe> ( los+ recruits4 ,! result w be an imm5se num]ical inf]iority ( ! :ite races1 lead+ probably to _! ext]m9ation 9 a mut9y ( m]c5>ies4 ,if1 h[ev]1 a _w-gov]nm5t is e/abli%$1 x may see ! desirability ( mak+ subject races also less prolific1 & may p]mit mank9d to solve ! population "q4 ,?is is ano!r reason = desir+ a _w-gov]nm5t4 ,pass+ f quantity to quality ( population1 we come to ! "q ( eug5ics4 ,we may p]haps assume t1 if p gr[ less sup]/iti\s1 gov]nm5ts w acquire ! "r to /]ilize ^? :o are n consid]$ desirable z p>5ts4 ,?is p[] w be us$1 at fir/1 to dim9i% imbecility1 a mo/ desirable object4 ,b probably1 9 "t1 opposition to ! gov]nm5t w be tak5 to prove imbecility1 s t rebels ( all k9ds w be /]iliz$4 ,epileptics1 consumptives1 dipsomaniacs & s on w gradually be includ$2 9 ! end1 !re w be a t5d5cy to include all :o fail to pass ! usual s*ool exam9ations4 ,! result w be to increase ! av]age intellig5ce2 9 ! long run1 x may be greatly increas$4 ,b probably ! effect ^u really exceptional intellig5ce w be bad4 ,mr4 ,micawb]1 :o 0 ,dick5s's fa!r1 w\ld h>dly h be5 reg>d$ z a desirable p>5t4 ,h[ _m imbeciles ought to outweigh "o ,dick5s ,i d n pr(ess to "k4 ,eug5ics has1 ( c\rse1 m ambiti\s possibilities 9 a m di/ant future4 ,x may aim n only at elim9at+ undesir$ types1 b at increas+ desir$ types4 ,moral /&>ds may alt] s z to make x possible = "o man to be ! sire ( a va/ prog5y by _m diff]5t mo!rs4 ,:5 m5 ( sci5ce envisage a possibility ( ?is k9d1 !y are prone to a type ( fallacy :i* is common also 9 o!r directions4 ,!y imag9e t a re=m inaugurat$ by m5 ( sci5ce w\ld be adm9i/]$ z m5 ( sci5ce w\ld wi%1 by m5 simil> 9 outlook to ^? :o h advocat$ x4 ,9 l mann] wom5 :o advocat$ votes = wom5 us$ to imag9e t ! woman vot] ( ! future w\ld resemble ! ard5t fem9i/ :o won h] ! vote2 & sociali/ lead]s imag9e t a sociali/ ,/ate w\ld be adm9i/]$ by ideali/ic re=m]s l !mselves4 ,^! are1 ( c\rse1 delusions2 a re=m1 once a*iev$1 is h&$ ov] to ! av]age citiz54 ,s1 if eug5ics rea*$ ! po9t :]e x c\ld increase desir$ types1 x w\ld n be ! types desir$ by pres5t-day eug5i/s t w\ld be increas$1 b r ! types desir$ by ! av]age (ficial4 ,prime ,m9i/]s1 ,bi%ops1 & o!rs :om ! ,/ate consid]s desirable might become ! fa!rs ( half ! next g5]ation4 ,:e!r ?is w\ld be an improvem5t x is n = me to say1 z ,i h no hope ( ev] becom+ ei!r a ,bi%op or a ,prime ,m9i/]4 ,if we knew en\gh ab\t h]$ity to det]m9e1 )9 limits1 :at sort ( population we w\ld h1 ! matt] w\ld ( c\rse be 9 ! h&s ( ,/ate (ficials1 presumably eld]ly m$ical m54 ,:e!r !y w\ld really be pref]able to ,nature ,i d n feel sure4 ,i suspect t !y w\ld bre$ a subs]vi5t population1 conv5i5t to rul]s b incapable ( initiative4 ,h[ev]1 x may be t ,i am too sceptical ( ! wisdom ( (ficials4 ,! effects ( psy*ology on practical life may 9 "t become v great4 ,already adv]tis]s 9 ,am]ica employ em95t psy*ologi/s to in/ruct !m 9 ! te*nique ( produc+ irrational belief2 su* m5 may1 :5 !y h gr[n m pr(ici5t1 be v useful 9 p]suad+ ! democracy t gov]nm5ts are wise & good4 ,!n1 aga91 !re are ! psy*ological te/s ( intellig5ce1 z appli$ to recruits = ! ,am]ican army dur+ ! w>4 ,i am v sceptical ( ! possibility ( te/+ any?+ except av]age intellig5ce by su* me?ods1 & ,i ?9k t1 if !y 7 widely adopt$1 !y w\ld probably lead to _m p]sons ( great arti/ic capacity be+ classifi$ z morons4 ,! same ?+ w\ld h happ5$ to "s fir/-rate ma!maticians4 ,specializ$ ability n infrequ5tly goes ) g5]al disability1 b ?is w\ld n be %[n by ! k9d ( te/s :i* psy*ologi/s recomm5d$ to ! ,am]ican gov]nm5t4 ,m s5sational ?an te/s ( intellig5ce is ! possibility ( controll+ ! emotional life ?r\gh ! secretions ( ! ductless gl&s4 ,x w be possible to make p *ol]ic or timid1 /rongly or weakly sex$1 & s on1 z may be desir$4 ,diff]5ces ( emotional disposition seem to be *iefly due to secretions ( ! ductless gl&s1 & !re=e controllable by injections or by increas+ or dim9i%+ ! secretions4 ,assum+ an olig>*ic organization ( society1 ! ,/ate c\ld give to ! *ildr5 ( hold]s ( p[] ! disposition requir$ = comm&1 & to ! *ildr5 ( ! prolet>iat ! disposition requir$ = ob$i5ce4 ,aga9/ ! injections ( ! ,/ate physicians ! mo/ eloqu5t ,sociali/ oratory w\ld be p[]less4 ,! only difficulty w\ld be to comb9e ?is submissiv5ess ) ! necess>y f]ocity aga9/ ext]nal enemies2 b ,i d n d\bt t (ficial sci5ce w\ld be equal to ! task4 ,x is n necess>y1 :5 we are consid]+ political consequ5ces1 to p9 our fai? to ! p>ticul> !ories ( ! ductless gl&s1 :i* may bl[ ov]1 l o!r !ories4 ,all t is ess5tial 9 our hypo!sis is ! belief t physiology w 9 "t f9d ways ( controll+ emotion1 :i* x is sc>cely possible to d\bt4 ,:5 t day comes1 we %all h ! emotions desir$ by our rul]s1 & ! *ief bus9ess ( elem5t>y education w be to produce ! desir$ disposition1 no long] by puni%m5t or moral precept1 b by ! f> sur] me?od ( injection or diet4 ,! m5 :o w adm9i/] ?is sy/em w h a p[] beyond ! dreams ( ! ,jesuits1 b !re is no reason to suppose t !y w h m s5se ?an ! m5 :o control education to-day4 ,te*nical sci5tific k does n make m5 s5sible 9 _! aims1 & adm9i/rators 9 ! future1 w be presumably no less /upid & no less prejudic$ ?an !y are at pres5t4 ,,conclusion ,x may seem z ?\gh ,i _h be5 at once gloomy & frivol\s 9 "s ( my progno/ications4 ,i w end1 h[ev]1 ) ! s]i\s lesson :i* seems to me to result4 ,m5 sometimes speak z ?\gh ! progress ( sci5ce mu/ necess>ily be a boon to mank9d1 b t1 ,i fe>1 is "o ( ! com=table n9ete5?-c5tury delusions :i* our m disillusion$ age mu/ disc>d4 ,sci5ce enables ! hold]s ( p[] to realize _! purposes m fully ?an !y c\ld o!rwise d4 ,if _! purposes are good1 ?is is a ga92 if !y are evil1 x is a loss4 ,9 ! pres5t age1 x seems t ! purposes ( ! hold]s ( p[] are 9 ! ma9 evil1 9 ! s5se t !y involve a dim9ution1 9 ! _w at l>ge1 ( ! ?+s m5 are agre$ 9 ?9k+ good4 ,!re=e1 at pres5t1 sci5ce does h>m by increas+ ! p[] ( rul]s4 ,sci5ce is no sub/itute = virtue2 ! he>t is z necess>y = a good life z ! head4 ,if m5 7 rational 9 _! conduct1 t is to say1 if !y act$ 9 ! way mo/ likely to br+ ab\t ! ends t !y delib]ately desire1 intellig5ce w\ld be en\gh to make ! _w almo/ a p>adise4 ,9 ! ma91 :at is 9 ! long run advantage\s to "o man is also advantage\s to ano!r4 ,b m5 are actuat$ by passions :i* di/ort _! view2 feel+ an impulse to injure o!rs1 !y p]suade !mselves t x is to _! int]e/ to d s4 ,!y w n1 !re=e1 act 9 ! way :i* is 9 fact to _! own int]e/ unless !y are actuat$ by g5]\s impulses :i* make !m indiff]5t to _! own int]e/4 ,?is is :y ! he>t is z important z ! head4 ,by ! 8he>t0 ,i mean1 = ! mom5t1 ! sum-total ( k9dly impulses4 ,:]e !y exi/1 sci5ce helps !m to be effective2 :]e !y are abs5t1 sci5ce only makes m5 m clev]ly diabolic4 ,x may be laid d[n z a g5]al pr9ciple to :i* !re are few exceptions t1 :5 p are mi/ak5 z to :at is to _! own int]e/1 ! c\rse !y believe to be wise is m h>mful to o!rs ?an ! c\rse t really is wise4 ,!re are innum]able examples ( m5 mak+ =tunes because1 on moral gr\nds1 !y did some?+ :i* !y believ$ to be contr>y to _! own int]e/s4 ,= in/ance1 among e>ly ,quak]s !re 7 a numb] ( %opkeep]s1 :o adopt$ ! practice ( ask+ no m = _! goods ?an !y 7 will+ to accept1 in/ead ( b>ga9+ ) ea* cu/om]1 z ev]ybody else did4 ,!y adopt$ ?is practice because !y held x to be a lie to ask m ?an !y w\ld take4 ,b ! conv5i5ce to cu/om]s 0 s great t ev]ybody came to _! %ops & !y grew ri*4 7,i =get :]e ,i read ?is1 b if my memory s]ves me x 0 9 "s reliable s\rce74 ,! same policy might h be5 adopt$ f %rewdness1 b 9 fact no "o 0 suffici5tly %rewd4 ,our unconsci\s is m malevol5t ?an x pays u to be2 !re=e ! p :o d mo/ completely :at is 9 fact to _! int]e/ are ^? :o1 on moral gr\nds1 d :at !y believe to be aga9/ _! int]e/4 ,= ?is reason1 x is ( ! greate/ importance to inquire :e!r any me?od ( /r5g!n+ k9dly impulses exi/s4 ,i h no d\bt t _! /r5g? or weakness dep5ds ^u discov]able physiological causes2 let u assume t x dep5ds ^u ! gl&s4 ,if s1 an int]national secret society ( physiologi/s c\ld br+ ab\t ! mill5nium by kidnapp+1 on a giv5 day1 all ! rul]s ( ! _w1 & inject+ into _! blood "s sub/ance :i* w\ld fill !m ) b5evol5ce t[>ds _! fell[-creatures4 ,sudd5ly ,m4 ,po9c>e w\ld wi% well to ,ruhr m9]s1 ,"l ,curzon to ,indian nationali/s1 ,mr4 ,smuts to ! natives ( :at 0 ,g]man ,s\? ,we/ ,africa1 ! ,am]ican ,gov]nm5t to its political prison]s & its victims 9 ,ellis ,isl&4 ,b alas1 ! physiologi/s w\ld fir/ h to adm9i/] ! love-philtre to !mselves be=e !y w\ld und]take su* a task4 ,o!rwise1 !y w\ld pref] to w9 titles & =tunes by inject+ milit>y f]ocity into recruits4 ,& s we come back to ! old dilemma3 only k9dl9ess c save ! _w1 & ev5 if we knew h[ to produce k9dl9ess we %\ld n d s unless we 7 already k9dly4 ,fail+ t1 x seems t ! solution :i* ! ,h\ynhnms adopt$ t[>ds ! ,yahoos1 namely ext]m9ation1 is ! only "o2 app>5tly ! ,yahoos are b5t on apply+ x to ea* o!r4 ,we may sum up ?is discussion 9 a few words4 ,sci5ce has n giv5 m5 m self-control1 m k9dl9ess1 or m p[] ( disc\nt+ _! passions 9 decid+ ^u a c\rse ( action4 ,x has giv5 communities m p[] to indulge _! collective passions1 b1 by mak+ society m organic1 x has dim9i%$ ! "p play$ by private passions4 ,m5's collective passions are ma9ly evil2 f> ! /ronge/ ( !m are hatr$ & rivalry direct$ t[>ds o!r gr\ps4 ,!re=e at pres5t all t gives m5 p[] to indulge _! collective passions is bad4 ,t is :y sci5ce ?reat5s to cause ! de/ruction ( our civilization4 ,! only solid hope seems to lie 9 ! possibility ( _w-wide dom9ation by "o gr\p1 say ! ,unit$ ,/ates1 lead+ to ! gradual =mation ( an ord]ly economic & political _w-gov]nm5t4 ,b p]haps1 9 view ( ! /]ility ( ! ,roman ,empire1 ! collapse ( our civilization w\ld 9 ! end be pref]able to ?is alt]native4 ,transcrib]'s ,notes ,punctuation1 hyph5ation1 & spell+ 7 made consi/5t :5 a pr$om9ant pref]5ce 0 f\nd 9 ! orig9al book2 o!rwise !y 7 n *ang$4 ,simple typographical errors 7 correct$2 unbalanc$ quotation m>ks 7 rem$i$ :5 ! *ange 0 obvi\s1 & o!rwise left unbalanc$4 ,table ( ,cont5ts add$ by ,transcrib]4