,,icarus ,,or ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,science ,,by ,,the ,,same ,,author ,the ,a4,b4,c4 ,,of ,,atoms #abmo41 cloth #b4jj ,in the last few years the study of ,radioactivity has brought about amazing advances in our knowledge of the properties and nature of the ,atom2 and into this fascinating wonderland of the infinitely small yet infinitely complex and infinitely full of energy1 ,mr4 ,russell introduces us4 ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,fifth ,avenue1 ,new ,york ,,icarus ,,or ,the ,future of ,science ,,by ,,bertrand ,,russell ,illustration ,,new ,,york ,e4 ,p4 ,,dutton ,,company #fha ,,fifth ,,avenue ,copyright1 #aibd ,by ,e4 ,p4 ,dutton ,company ,all ,rights ,reserved ,first printing1 ,april1 #aibd ,second printing1 ,june1 #aibd ,third printing1 ,october1 #aibd ,fourth printing1 ,december1 #aibd ,fifth ,printing1 ,december1 #aibd ,sixth ,printing1 ,june1 #aibe ,seventh ,printing1 ,june1 #aibe ,printed in the ,united ,states of ,america ,,contents ,,page ,i4 ,introductory #e ,,ii4 ,effects of the ,physical ,sciences #ae ,,iii4 ,the ,increase of ,organization #bc ,,iv4 ,the ,anthropological ,sciences #dc ,conclusion #eg ,,icarus ,,or ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,science ,i4 ,,introductory ,mr4 ,haldane's ,daedalus has set forth an attractive picture of the future as it may become through the use of scientific discoveries to promote human happiness4 ,much as ,i should like to agree with his forecast1 a long experience of statesmen and governments has made me somewhat sceptical4 ,i am compelled to fear that science will be used to promote the power of dominant groups1 rather than to make men happy4 ,icarus1 having been taught to fly by his father ,daedalus1 was destroyed by his rashness4 ,i fear that the same fate may overtake the populations whom modern men of science have taught to fly4 ,some of the dangers inherent in the progress of science while we retain our present political and economic institutions are set forth in the following pages4 ,this subject is so vast that it is impossible1 within a limited space1 to do more than outline some of its aspects4 ,the world in which we live differs profoundly from that of ,queen ,anne's time1 and this difference is mainly attributable to science4 ,that is to say1 the difference would be very much less than it is but for various scientific discoveries1 but resulted from those discoveries by the operation of ordinary human nature4 ,the changes that have been brought about have been partly good1 partly bad2 whether1 in the end1 science will prove to have been a blessing or a curse to mankind1 is to my mind1 still a doubtful question4 ,a science may affect human life in two different ways4 ,on the one hand1 without altering men's passions or their general outlook1 it may increase their power of gratifying their desires4 ,on the other hand1 it may operate through an effect upon the imaginative conception of the world1 the theology or philosophy which is accepted in practice by energetic men4 ,the latter is a fascinating study1 but ,i shall almost wholly ignore it1 in order to bring my subject within a manageable compass4 ,i shall confine myself almost wholly to the effect of science in enabling us to gratify our passions more freely1 which has hitherto been far the more important of the two4 ,from our point of view1 we may divide the sciences into three groups3 physical1 biological1 and anthropological4 ,in the physical group ,i include chemistry1 and broadly speaking any science concerned with the properties of matter apart from life4 ,in the anthropological group ,i include all studies specially concerned with man3 human physiology and psychology 7between which no sharp line can be drawn71 anthropology1 history1 sociology1 and economics4 ,all these studies can be illuminated by considerations drawn from biology2 for instance1 ,rivers threw a new light on parts of economics by adducing facts about landed property among birds during the breeding season4 ,but in spite of their connection with biology--a connection which is likely to grow closer as time goes on--they are broadly distinguished from biology by their methods and data1 and deserve to be grouped apart1 at any rate in a sociological inquiry4 ,the effect of the biological sciences1 so far1 has been very small4 ,no doubt ,darwinism and the idea of evolution affected men's imaginative outlook2 arguments were derived in favour of free competition1 and also of nationalism4 ,but these effects were of the sort that ,i propose not to consider4 ,it is probable that great effects will come from these sciences sooner or later4 ,mendelism might have revolutionized agriculture1 and no doubt some similar theory will do so sooner or later4 ,bacteriology may enable us to exterminate our enemies by disease4 ,the study of heredity may in time make eugenics an exact science1 and perhaps we shall in a later age be able to determine at will the sex of our children4 ,this would probably lead to an excess of males1 involving a complete change in family institutions4 ,but these speculations belong to the future4 ,i do not propose to deal with the possible future effects of biology1 both because my knowledge of biology is very limited1 and because the subject has been admirably treated by ,mr4 ,haldane4#a #a ,see his ,daedalus1 or ,science and the ,future4 ,the anthropological sciences are those from which1 a priori1 we might have expected the greatest social effects1 but hitherto this has not proved to be the case1 partly because these sciences are mostly still at an early stage of development4 ,even economics has not so far had much effect4 ,where it has seemed to have1 this is because it advocated what was independently desired4 ,hitherto1 the most effective of the anthropological sciences has been medicine1 through its influence on sanitation and public health1 and through the fact that it has discovered how to deal with malaria and yellow fever4 ,birth-control is also a very important social fact which comes into this category4 ,but although the future effect of the anthropological sciences 7to which ,i shall return presently7 is illimitable1 the effect up to the present has been confined within fairly narrow limits4 ,one general observation to begin with4 ,science has increased man's control over nature1 and might therefore be supposed likely to increase his happiness and well-being4 ,this would be the case if men were rational1 but in fact they are bundles of passions and instincts4 ,an animal species in a stable environment1 if it does not die out1 acquires an equilibrium between its passions and the conditions of its life4 ,if the conditions are suddenly altered1 the equilibrium is upset4 ,wolves in a state of nature have difficulty in getting food1 and therefore need the stimulus of a very insistent hunger4 ,the result is that their descendants1 domestic dogs1 over-eat if they are allowed to do so4 ,when a certain amount of something is useful1 and the difficulty of obtaining it is diminished1 instinct will usually lead an animal to excess in the new circumstances4 ,the sudden change produced by science has upset the balance between our instincts and our circumstances1 but in directions not sufficiently noticed4 ,over-eating is not a serious danger1 but over-fighting is4 ,the human instincts of power and rivalry1 like the dog's wolfish appetite will need to be artificially curbed1 if industrialism is to succeed4 ,,ii4 ,,effects ,,of ,,the ,,physical ,,sciences ,much the greatest part of the changes which science has made in social life is due to the physical sciences1 as is evident when we consider that they brought about the industrial revolution4 ,this is a trite topic1 about which ,i shall say as little as my subject permits4 ,there are1 however1 some points which must be made4 ,first1 industrialism1 still has great parts of the earth's surface to conquer4 ,russia and ,india are very imperfectly industrialized2 ,china hardly at all4 ,in ,south ,america there is room for immense development4 ,one of the effects of industrialism is to make the world an economic unit3 its ultimate consequences will be very largely due to this fact4 ,but before the world can be effectively organized as a unit1 it will probably be necessary to develop industrially all the regions capable of development that are at present backward4 ,the effects of industrialism change as it becomes more wide-spread2 this must be remembered in any attempt to argue from its past to its future4 ,the second point about industrialism is that it increases the productivity of labour1 and thus makes more luxuries possible4 ,at first1 in ,england1 the chief luxury achieved was a larger population with an actual lowering of the standard of life4 ,then came a golden age when wages increased1 hours of labour diminished1 and simultaneously the middle-class grew more prosperous4 ,that was while ,great ,britain was still supreme4 ,with the growth of foreign industrialism1 a new epoch began4 ,industrial organizations have seldom succeeded in becoming world-wide1 and have consequently become national4 ,competition1 formerly between individual firms1 is now mainly between nations1 and is therefore conducted by methods quite different from those contemplated by the classical economists4 ,modern industrialism is a struggle between nations for two things1 markets and raw materials1 as well as for the sheer pleasure of dominion4 ,the labour which is set free from providing the necessaries of life tends to be more and more absorbed by national rivalry4 ,there are first the armed forces of the ,state2 then those who provide munitions of war1 from the raw minerals up to the finished product2 then the diplomatic and consular services2 then the teachers of patriotism in schools2 then the ,press4 ,all of these perform other functions as well1 but the chief purpose is to minister to international competition4 ,as another class whose labours are devoted to the same end1 we must add a considerable proportion of the men of science4 ,these men invent continually more elaborate methods of attack and defence4 ,the net result of their labours is to diminish the proportion of the population that can be put into the fighting line1 since more are required for munitions4 ,this might seem a boon1 but in fact war is now-a-days primarily against the civilian population1 and in a defeated country they are liable to suffer just as much as the soldiers4 ,it is science above all that has determined the importance of raw materials in international competition4 ,coal and iron and oil1 especially1 are the bases of power1 and thence of wealth4 ,the nation which possesses them1 and has the industrial skill required to utilize them in war1 can acquire markets by armed force1 and levy tribute upon less fortunate nations4 ,economists have underestimated the part played by military prowess in the acquisition of wealth4 ,the landed aristocracies of ,europe were1 in origin1 warlike invaders4 ,their defeat by the bourgeoisie in the ,french ,revolution1 and the fear which this generated in the ,duke of ,wellington1 facilitated the rise of the middle class4 ,the wars of the eighteenth century decided that ,england was to be richer than ,france4 ,the traditional economist's rules for the distribution of wealth hold only when men's actions are governed by law1 i4e4 when most people think the issue unimportant4 ,the issues that people have considered vital have been decided by civil wars or wars between nations4 ,and for the present1 owing to science1 the art of war consists in possessing coal1 iron1 oil1 and the industrial skill to work them4 ,for the sake of simplicity1 ,i omit other raw materials1 since they do not affect the essence of our problem4 ,we may say1 therefore1 speaking very generally1 that men have used the increased productivity which they owe to science for three chief purposes in succession3 first1 to increase the population2 then1 to raise the standard of comfort2 and1 finally1 to provide more energy to war4 ,this last result has been chiefly brought about by competition for markets1 which led to competition for raw materials1 especially the raw materials of munitions4 ,,iii4 ,,the ,,increase ,,of ,,organization ,the stimulation of nationalism which has taken place in modern times is1 however1 due very largely to another factor1 namely the increase of organization1 which is of the very essence of industrialism4 ,wherever expensive fixed capital is required1 organization on a large scale is of course necessary4 ,in view of the economies of large scale production1 organization in marketing also becomes of great importance4 ,for some purposes1 if not for all1 many industries come to be organized nationally1 so as to be in effect one business in each nation4 ,science has not only brought about the need of large organizations1 but also the technical possibility of their existence4 ,without railways1 telegraphs1 and telephones1 control from a centre is very difficult4 ,in ancient empires1 and in ,china down to modern times1 provinces were governed by practically independent satraps or proconsuls1 who were appointed by the central government1 but decided almost all questions on their own initiative4 ,if they displeased the sovereign1 they could only be controlled by civil war1 of which the issue was doubtful4 ,until the invention of the telegraph1 ambassadors had a great measure of independence1 since it was often necessary to act without waiting for orders from home4 ,what applied in politics applied also in business3 an organization controlled from the centre had to be very loosely knit1 and to allow much autonomy to subordinates4 ,opinion as well as action was difficult to mould from a centre1 and local variations marred the uniformity of party creeds4 ,now-a-days all this is changed4 ,telegraph1 telephone1 and wireless make it easy to transmit orders from a centre3 railways and steamers make it easy to transport troops in case the orders are disobeyed4 ,modern methods of printing and advertising make it enormously cheaper to produce and distribute one newspaper with a large circulation than many with small circulations2 consequently1 in so far as the ,press controls opinion1 there is uniformity1 and1 in particular1 there is uniformity of news4 ,elementary education1 except in so far as religious denominations introduce variety1 is conducted on a uniform pattern decided by the ,state1 by means of teachers whom the ,state has trained1 as far as possible1 to imitate the regularity and mutual similarity of machines produced to standard4 ,thus the material and psychological conditions for a great intensity of organization have increased pari passu1 but the basis of the whole development is scientific invention in the purely physical realm4 ,increased productivity has played its part1 by making it possible to set apart more labour for propaganda1 under which head are to be included advertisement1 the cinema1 the ,press1 education1 politics1 and religion4 ,broadcasting is a new method likely to acquire great potency as soon as people are satisfied that it is not a method of propaganda4 ,political controversies1 as ,mr4 ,graham ,wallas has pointed out1 ought to be conducted in quantitative terms4 ,if sociology were one of the sciences that had affected social institutions 7which it is not71 this would be the case4 ,the dispute between anarchism and bureaucracy at present tends to take the form of one side maintaining that we want no organization1 while the other maintains that we want as much as possible4 ,a person imbued with the scientific spirit would hardly even examine these extreme positions4 ,some people think that we keep our rooms too hot for health1 others that we keep them too cold4 ,if this were a political question1 one party would maintain that the best temperature is the absolute zero1 the other that it is the melting point of iron4 ,those who maintained any intermediate position would be abused as timorous time-servers1 concealed agents of the other side1 men who ruined the enthusiasm of a sacred cause by tepid appeals to mere reason4 ,any man who had the courage to say that our rooms ought to be neither very hot nor very cold would be abused by both parties1 and probably shot in ,no ,man's ,land4 ,possibly some day politics may become more rational1 but so far there is not the faintest indication of a change in this direction4 ,to a rational mind1 the question is not3 ,do we want organization or do we not8 ,the question is3 ,how much organization do we want1 and where and when and of what kind8 ,in spite of a temperamental leaning to anarchism1 ,i am persuaded that an industrial world cannot maintain itself against internal disruptive forces without a great deal more organization than we have at present4 ,it is not the amount of organization1 but its kind and its purposes1 that cause our troubles4 ,but before tackling this question1 let us pause for a moment to ask ourselves what is the measure of the intensity of organization in a given community4 ,a man's acts are partly determined by spontaneous impulse1 partly by the conscious or unconscious effects of the various groups to which he belongs4 ,a man who works 7say7 on a railway or in a mine is1 in his working-hours almost entirely determined in his actions by those who direct the collective labour of which he forms part4 ,if he decides to strike1 his action is again not individual1 but determined by his ,union4 ,when he votes for ,parliament1 party caucuses have limited his choice to one of two or three men1 and party propaganda has induced him to accept in toto one of the two or three blocks of opinions which form the rival party programmes4 ,his choice between the parties may be individual1 but it may also be determined by the action of some group1 such as a trade union1 which collectively supports one party4 ,his newspaper-reading exposes him to great organized forces2 so does the cinema1 if he goes to it4 ,his choice of a wife is probably spontaneous1 except that he must choose a woman of his own class4 ,but in the education of his children he is almost entirely powerless3 they must have the education which is provided4 ,organization thus determines many vital things in his life4 ,compare him with a handicraftsman or peasant-proprietor who cannot read and does not have his children educated1 and it becomes clear what is meant by saying that industrialism has increased the intensity of organization4 ,to define this term1 we must1 ,i think1 exclude the unconscious effects of groups1 except as causes facilitating the conscious effects4 ,we may define the intensity of organization to which a given individual is subject as the proportion of his acts which is determined by the orders or advice of some group1 expressed through democratic decisions or executive officers4 ,the intensity of organization in a community may then be defined as the average intensity for its several members4 ,the intensity of organization is increased not only when a man belongs to more organizations1 but also when the organizations to which he already belongs play a larger part in his life1 as1 for example1 the ,state plays a larger part in war than in peace4 ,another matter which needs to be treated quantitatively is the degree of democracy1 oligarchy1 or monarchy in an organization4 ,no organization belongs completely to any one of the three types4 ,there must be executive officers1 who will often in practice be able to decide policy1 even if in theory they cannot do so4 ,and even if their power depends upon persuasion1 they may so completely control the relevant publicity that they can always rely upon a majority4 ,the directors of a railway company1 for instance1 are to all intents and purposes uncontrolled by the shareholders1 who have no adequate means of organizing an opposition if they should wish to do so4 ,in ,america1 a railroad president is almost a monarch4 ,in party politics1 the power of leaders1 although it depends upon persuasion1 continually increases as printed propaganda becomes more important4 ,for these reasons1 even where formal democracy increases1 the real degree of democratic control tends to diminish1 except on a few questions which rouse strong popular passions4 ,the result of these causes is that1 in consequence of scientific inventions which facilitate centralization and propaganda1 groups become more organized1 more disciplined1 more group-conscious1 and more docile to leaders4 ,the effect of leaders on followers is increased1 and the control of events by a few prominent personalities becomes more marked4 ,in all this there would be nothing very tragic1 but for the fact1 with which science has nothing to do1 that organization is almost wholly national4 ,if men were actuated by the love of gain1 as the older economists supposed1 this would not be the case2 the same causes which have led to national trusts would have led to international trusts4 ,this has happened in a few instances1 but not on a sufficiently wide scale to affect politics or economics very vitally4 ,rivalry is1 with most well-to-do energetic people1 a stronger motive than love of money4 ,successful rivalry requires organization of rival forces2 the tendency is for a business such as oil1 for example1 to organize itself into two rival groups1 between them covering the world4 ,they might1 of course1 combine1 and they would no doubt increase their wealth if they did so4 ,but combination would take the zest out of life4 ,the object of a football team1 one might say1 is to kick goals4 ,if two rival teams combined1 and kicked the ball alternately over the two goals1 many more goals would be scored4 ,nevertheless no one suggests that this should be done1 the object of a football team being not to kick goals but to win4 ,so the object of a big business is not to make money1 but to win in the contest with some other business4 ,if there were no other business to be defeated1 the whole thing would become uninteresting4 ,this rivalry has attached itself to nationalism1 and enlisted the support of the ordinary citizens of the countries concerned2 they seldom know what it is that they are supporting1 but1 like the spectators at a football-match1 they grow enthusiastic for their own side4 ,the harm that is being done by science and industrialism is almost wholly due to the fact that1 while they have proved strong enough to produce a national organization of economic forces1 they have not proved strong enough to produce an international organization4 ,it is clear that political internationalism such as the ,league of ,nations was supposed to inaugurate1 will never be successful until we have economic internationalism1 which would require1 as a minimum1 an agreement between various national organizations dividing among them the raw materials and markets of the world4 ,this1 however1 can hardly be brought about while big business is controlled by men who are so rich as to have grown indifferent to money1 and to be willing to risk enormous losses for the pleasure of rivalry4 ,the increase of organization in the modern world has made the ideals of liberalism wholly inapplicable4 ,liberalism1 from ,montesquieu to ,president ,wilson1 was based upon the assumption of a number of more or less equal individuals or groups1 with no differences so vital that they were willing to die sooner than compromise4 ,it was supposed that there was to be free competition between individuals and between ideas4 ,experience has shown1 however1 that the existing economic system is incompatible with all forms of free competition except between ,states by means of armaments4 ,i should wish1 for my part1 to preserve free competition between ideas1 though not between individuals and groups1 but this is only possible by means of what an old-fashioned liberal would regard as interferences with personal liberty4 ,so long as the sources of economic power remain in private hands1 there will be no liberty except for the few who control those sources4 ,such liberal ideals as free trade1 free press1 unbiased education1 either already belong to the past or soon will do so4 ,one of the triumphs of early liberalism in ,england was the establishment of parliamentary control over the army2 this was the casus belli in the ,civil ,war1 and was decided by the ,revolution of #afhh4 ,it was effective so long as ,parliament represented the same class from which army officers were drawn4 ,this was still the case with the late ,parliament1 but may cease to be the case with the advent of a ,labour ,government4 ,russia1 ,hungary1 ,italy1 ,spain1 and ,bavaria have shown in recent years how frail democracy has become2 east of the ,rhine it lingers only in outlying regions4 ,constitutional control over armaments must1 therefore1 be regarded as another liberal principal which is rapidly becoming obsolete4 ,it would seem probable that1 in the next fifty years or so1 we shall see a still further increase in the power of governments1 and a tendency for governments to be such as are desired by the men who control armaments and raw materials4 ,the forms of democracy may survive in western countries1 since those who possess military and economic power can control education and the press1 and therefore can usually secure a subservient democracy4 ,rival economic groups will presumably remain associated with rival nations1 and will foster nationalism in order to recruit their football teams4 ,there is1 however1 a hopeful element in the problem4 ,the planet is of finite size1 but the most efficient size for an organization is continually increased by new scientific inventions4 ,the world becomes more and more of an economic unity4 ,before very long the technical conditions will exist for organizing the whole world as one producing and consuming unit4 ,if1 when that time comes1 two rival groups contend for mastery1 the victor may be able to introduce that single world-wide organization that is needed to prevent the mutual extermination of civilized nations4 ,the world which would result would be1 at first1 very different from the dreams of either liberals or socialists2 but it might grow less different with the lapse of time4 ,there would be at first economic and political tyranny of the victors1 a dread of renewed upheavals1 and therefore a drastic suppression of liberty4 ,but if the first half-dozen revolts were successfully repressed1 the vanquished would give up hope1 and accept the subordinate place assigned to them by the victors in the great world-trust4 ,as soon as the holders of power felt secure1 they would grow less tyrannical and less energetic4 ,the motive of rivalry being removed1 they would not work so hard as they do now1 and would soon cease to exact such hard work from their subordinates4 ,life at first might be unpleasant1 but it would at least be possible1 which would be enough to recommend the system after a long period of warfare4 ,given a stable world-organization1 economic and political1 even if1 at first1 it rested upon nothing but armed force1 the evils which now threaten civilization would gradually diminish1 and a more thorough democracy than that which now exists might become possible4 ,i believe that1 owing to men's folly1 a world-government will only be established by force1 and will therefore be at first cruel and despotic4 ,but ,i believe that it is necessary for the preservation of a scientific civilization1 and that1 if once realized1 it will gradually give rise to the other conditions of a tolerable existence4 ,,iv4 ,,the ,,anthropological ,,sciences ,it remains to say something about the future effects of the anthropological sciences4 ,this is of course extremely conjectural1 because we do not know what discoveries will be made4 ,the effect is likely to be far greater than we can now imagine1 because these sciences are still in their infancy4 ,i will1 however1 take a few points on which to hang conjectures4 ,i do not wish to be supposed to be making prophecies3 ,i am only suggesting possibilities which it may be instructive to consider4 ,birth-control is a matter of great importance1 particularly in relation to the possibility of a world-government1 which could hardly be stable if some nations increased their population much more rapidly than others4 ,at present1 birth-control is increasing in all civilized countries1 though in most it is opposed by governments4 ,this opposition is due partly to mere superstition and desire to conciliate the ,catholic vote1 partly to the desire for large armies and severe competition between wage-earners1 so as to keep down wages4 ,in spite of the opposition of governments1 it seems probable that birth-control will lead to a stationary population in most white nations within the next fifty years4 ,there can be no security that it will stop with a stationary population2 it may go on to the point where the population diminishes4 ,the increase in the practice of birth-control is an example of a process contrary to that seen in industrialism3 it represents a victory of individual over collective passions4 ,collectively1 ,frenchmen desire that ,france should be populous1 in order to be able to defeat her enemies in war4 ,individually1 they desire that their own families should be small1 in order to increase the inheritance of their children and to diminish the expense of education4 ,the individual desire has triumphed over the collective desire1 and even1 in many cases1 over religious scruples4 ,in this case1 as in most others1 the individual desire is less harmful to the world than the collective desire3 the man who acts from pure selfishness does less damage than the man who is actuated by 8public spirit40 ,for1 since medicine and sanitation have diminished the infant death-rate1 the only checks to over-population that remain 7apart from birth-control7 are war and famine4 ,so long as this continues to be the case1 the world must either have a nearly stationary population1 or employ war to produce famine4 ,the latter method1 which is that favoured by opponents of birth-control1 has been adopted on a large scale since #aiad2 it is however somewhat wasteful4 ,we require a certain number of cattle and sheep1 and we take steps to secure the right number4 ,if we were as indifferent about them as we are about human beings1 we should produce far too many1 and cause the surplus to die by the slow misery of under-feeding4 ,farmers would consider this plan extravagant1 and humanitarians would consider it cruel4 ,but where human beings are concerned1 it is considered the only proper course1 and works advocating any other are confiscated by the police if they are intelligible to those whom they concern4 ,it must be admitted1 however1 that there are certain dangers4 ,before long the population may actually diminish4 ,this is already happening in the most intelligent sections of the most intelligent nations2 government opposition to birth-control propaganda gives a biological advantage to stupidity1 since it is chiefly stupid people whom governments succeed in keeping in ignorance4 ,before long1 birth-control may become nearly universal among the white races2 it will then not deteriorate their quality1 but only diminish their numbers1 at a time when uncivilized races are still prolific and are preserved from a high death-rate by white science4 ,this situation will lead to a tendency--already shown by the ,french--to employ more prolific races as mercenaries4 ,governments will oppose the teaching of birth-control among ,africans1 for fear of losing recruits4 ,the result will be an immense numerical inferiority of the white races1 leading probably to their extermination in a mutiny of mercenaries4 ,if1 however1 a world-government is established1 it may see the desirability of making subject races also less prolific1 and may permit mankind to solve the population question4 ,this is another reason for desiring a world-government4 ,passing from quantity to quality of population1 we come to the question of eugenics4 ,we may perhaps assume that1 if people grow less superstitious1 governments will acquire the right to sterilize those who are not considered desirable as parents4 ,this power will be used1 at first1 to diminish imbecility1 a most desirable object4 ,but probably1 in time1 opposition to the government will be taken to prove imbecility1 so that rebels of all kinds will be sterilized4 ,epileptics1 consumptives1 dipsomaniacs and so on will gradually be included2 in the end1 there will be a tendency to include all who fail to pass the usual school examinations4 ,the result will be to increase the average intelligence2 in the long run1 it may be greatly increased4 ,but probably the effect upon really exceptional intelligence will be bad4 ,mr4 ,micawber1 who was ,dickens's father1 would hardly have been regarded as a desirable parent4 ,how many imbeciles ought to outweigh one ,dickens ,i do not profess to know4 ,eugenics has1 of course1 more ambitious possibilities in a more distant future4 ,it may aim not only at eliminating undesired types1 but at increasing desired types4 ,moral standards may alter so as to make it possible for one man to be the sire of a vast progeny by many different mothers4 ,when men of science envisage a possibility of this kind1 they are prone to a type of fallacy which is common also in other directions4 ,they imagine that a reform inaugurated by men of science would be administered as men of science would wish1 by men similar in outlook to those who have advocated it4 ,in like manner women who advocated votes for women used to imagine that the woman voter of the future would resemble the ardent feminist who won her the vote2 and socialist leaders imagine that a socialist ,state would be administered by idealistic reformers like themselves4 ,these are1 of course1 delusions2 a reform1 once achieved1 is handed over to the average citizen4 ,so1 if eugenics reached the point where it could increase desired types1 it would not be the types desired by present-day eugenists that would be increased1 but rather the types desired by the average official4 ,prime ,ministers1 ,bishops1 and others whom the ,state considers desirable might become the fathers of half the next generation4 ,whether this would be an improvement it is not for me to say1 as ,i have no hope of ever becoming either a ,bishop or a ,prime ,minister4 ,if we knew enough about heredity to determine1 within limits1 what sort of population we would have1 the matter would of course be in the hands of ,state officials1 presumably elderly medical men4 ,whether they would really be preferable to ,nature ,i do not feel sure4 ,i suspect that they would breed a subservient population1 convenient to rulers but incapable of initiative4 ,however1 it may be that ,i am too sceptical of the wisdom of officials4 ,the effects of psychology on practical life may in time become very great4 ,already advertisers in ,america employ eminent psychologists to instruct them in the technique of producing irrational belief2 such men may1 when they have grown more proficient1 be very useful in persuading the democracy that governments are wise and good4 ,then1 again1 there are the psychological tests of intelligence1 as applied to recruits for the ,american army during the war4 ,i am very sceptical of the possibility of testing anything except average intelligence by such methods1 and ,i think that1 if they were widely adopted1 they would probably lead to many persons of great artistic capacity being classified as morons4 ,the same thing would have happened to some first-rate mathematicians4 ,specialized ability not infrequently goes with general disability1 but this would not be shown by the kind of tests which psychologists recommended to the ,american government4 ,more sensational than tests of intelligence is the possibility of controlling the emotional life through the secretions of the ductless glands4 ,it will be possible to make people choleric or timid1 strongly or weakly sexed1 and so on1 as may be desired4 ,differences of emotional disposition seem to be chiefly due to secretions of the ductless glands1 and therefore controllable by injections or by increasing or diminishing the secretions4 ,assuming an oligarchic organization of society1 the ,state could give to the children of holders of power the disposition required for command1 and to the children of the proletariat the disposition required for obedience4 ,against the injections of the ,state physicians the most eloquent ,socialist oratory would be powerless4 ,the only difficulty would be to combine this submissiveness with the necessary ferocity against external enemies2 but ,i do not doubt that official science would be equal to the task4 ,it is not necessary1 when we are considering political consequences1 to pin our faith to the particular theories of the ductless glands1 which may blow over1 like other theories4 ,all that is essential in our hypothesis is the belief that physiology will in time find ways of controlling emotion1 which it is scarcely possible to doubt4 ,when that day comes1 we shall have the emotions desired by our rulers1 and the chief business of elementary education will be to produce the desired disposition1 no longer by punishment or moral precept1 but by the far surer method of injection or diet4 ,the men who will administer this system will have a power beyond the dreams of the ,jesuits1 but there is no reason to suppose that they will have more sense than the men who control education to-day4 ,technical scientific knowledge does not make men sensible in their aims1 and administrators in the future1 will be presumably no less stupid and no less prejudiced than they are at present4 ,,conclusion ,it may seem as though ,i had been at once gloomy and frivolous in some of my prognostications4 ,i will end1 however1 with the serious lesson which seems to me to result4 ,men sometimes speak as though the progress of science must necessarily be a boon to mankind1 but that1 ,i fear1 is one of the comfortable nineteenth-century delusions which our more disillusioned age must discard4 ,science enables the holders of power to realize their purposes more fully than they could otherwise do4 ,if their purposes are good1 this is a gain2 if they are evil1 it is a loss4 ,in the present age1 it seems that the purposes of the holders of power are in the main evil1 in the sense that they involve a diminution1 in the world at large1 of the things men are agreed in thinking good4 ,therefore1 at present1 science does harm by increasing the power of rulers4 ,science is no substitute for virtue2 the heart is as necessary for a good life as the head4 ,if men were rational in their conduct1 that is to say1 if they acted in the way most likely to bring about the ends that they deliberately desire1 intelligence would be enough to make the world almost a paradise4 ,in the main1 what is in the long run advantageous to one man is also advantageous to another4 ,but men are actuated by passions which distort their view2 feeling an impulse to injure others1 they persuade themselves that it is to their interest to do so4 ,they will not1 therefore1 act in the way which is in fact to their own interest unless they are actuated by generous impulses which make them indifferent to their own interest4 ,this is why the heart is as important as the head4 ,by the 8heart0 ,i mean1 for the moment1 the sum-total of kindly impulses4 ,where they exist1 science helps them to be effective2 where they are absent1 science only makes men more cleverly diabolic4 ,it may be laid down as a general principle to which there are few exceptions that1 when people are mistaken as to what is to their own interest1 the course they believe to be wise is more harmful to others than the course that really is wise4 ,there are innumerable examples of men making fortunes because1 on moral grounds1 they did something which they believed to be contrary to their own interests4 ,for instance1 among early ,quakers there were a number of shopkeepers1 who adopted the practice of asking no more for their goods than they were willing to accept1 instead of bargaining with each customer1 as everybody else did4 ,they adopted this practice because they held it to be a lie to ask more than they would take4 ,but the convenience to customers was so great that everybody came to their shops and they grew rich4 7,i forget where ,i read this1 but if my memory serves me it was in some reliable source74 ,the same policy might have been adopted from shrewdness1 but in fact no one was sufficiently shrewd4 ,our unconscious is more malevolent than it pays us to be2 therefore the people who do most completely what is in fact to their interest are those who1 on moral grounds1 do what they believe to be against their interest4 ,for this reason1 it is of the greatest importance to inquire whether any method of strengthening kindly impulses exists4 ,i have no doubt that their strength or weakness depends upon discoverable physiological causes2 let us assume that it depends upon the glands4 ,if so1 an international secret society of physiologists could bring about the millennium by kidnapping1 on a given day1 all the rulers of the world1 and injecting into their blood some substance which would fill them with benevolence towards their fellow-creatures4 ,suddenly ,m4 ,poincare would wish well to ,ruhr miners1 ,lord ,curzon to ,indian nationalists1 ,mr4 ,smuts to the natives of what was ,german ,south ,west ,africa1 the ,american ,government to its political prisoners and its victims in ,ellis ,island4 ,but alas1 the physiologists would first have to administer the love-philtre to themselves before they would undertake such a task4 ,otherwise1 they would prefer to win titles and fortunes by injecting military ferocity into recruits4 ,and so we come back to the old dilemma3 only kindliness can save the world1 and even if we knew how to produce kindliness we should not do so unless we were already kindly4 ,failing that1 it seems that the solution which the ,houynhnms adopted towards the ,yahoos1 namely extermination1 is the only one2 apparently the ,yahoos are bent on applying it to each other4 ,we may sum up this discussion in a few words4 ,science has not given men more self-control1 more kindliness1 or more power of discounting their passions in deciding upon a course of action4 ,it has given communities more power to indulge their collective passions1 but1 by making society more organic1 it has diminished the part played by private passions4 ,men's collective passions are mainly evil2 far the strongest of them are hatred and rivalry directed towards other groups4 ,therefore at present all that gives men power to indulge their collective passions is bad4 ,that is why science threatens to cause the destruction of our civilization4 ,the only solid hope seems to lie in the possibility of world-wide domination by one group1 say the ,united ,states1 leading to the gradual formation of an orderly economic and political world-government4 ,but perhaps1 in view of the sterility of the ,roman ,empire1 the collapse of our civilization would in the end be preferable to this alternative4 ,transcriber's ,notes ,punctuation1 hyphenation1 and spelling were made consistent when a predominant preference was found in the original book2 otherwise they were not changed4 ,simple typographical errors were corrected2 unbalanced quotation marks were remedied when the change was obvious1 and otherwise left unbalanced4 ,table of ,contents added by ,transcriber4