,the ,snowball ,effect ,by ,,katherine ,mac,l,e,a,n ,illustrated by ,,emsh ,transcriber's ,note3 ,this etext was produced from ,galaxy ,science ,fiction ,september #aieb4 ,extensive research did not uncover any evidence that the ,u4,s4 copyright on this publication was renewed4 ,tack power drives on a sewing circle and you can needle the world into the darndest mess6 ,all right1 ,i said1 what is sociology good for8 ,wilton ,caswell1 ,ph4,d41 was head of my ,sociology ,department1 and right then he was mad enough to chew nails4 ,on the office wall behind him were three or four framed documents in ,latin that were supposed to be signs of great learning1 but ,i didn't care at that moment if he papered the walls with his degrees4 ,i had been appointed dean and president to see to it that the university made money4 ,i had a job to do1 and ,i meant to do it4 ,he bit off each word with great restraint3 ,sociology is the study of social institutions1 ,mr4 ,halloway4 ,i tried to make him understand my position4 ,look1 it's the big-money men who are supposed to be contributing to the support of this college4 ,to them1 sociology sounds like socialism--nothing can sound worse than that--and an institution is where they put ,aunt ,maggy when she began collecting ,wheaties in a stamp album4 ,we can't appeal to them that way4 ,come on now4 ,i smiled condescendingly1 knowing it would irritate him4 ,what are you doing that's worth anything8 ,he glared at me1 his white hair bristling and his nostrils dilated like a war horse about to whinny4 ,i can say one thing for them--these scientists and professors always keep themselves well under control4 ,he had a book in his hand and ,i was expecting him to throw it1 but he spoke instead3 ,this department's analysis of institutional accretion1 by the use of open system mathematics1 has been recognized as an outstanding and valuable contribution to-- ,the words were impressive1 whatever they meant1 but this still didn't sound like anything that would pull in money4 ,i interrupted1 ,valuable in what way8 ,he sat down on the edge of his desk thoughtfully1 apparently recovering from the shock of being asked to produce something solid for his position1 and ran his eyes over the titles of the books that lined his office walls4 ,well1 sociology has been valuable to business in initiating worker efficiency and group motivation studies1 which they now use in management decisions4 ,and1 of course1 since the depression1 ,washington has been using sociological studies of employment1 labor and standards of living as a basis for its general policies of-- ,i stopped him with both raised hands4 ,please1 ,professor ,caswell6 ,that would hardly be a recommendation4 ,washington1 the ,new ,deal and the present ,administration are somewhat touchy subjects to the men ,i have to deal with4 ,they consider its value debatable1 if you know what ,i mean4 ,if they got the idea that sociology professors are giving advice and guidance--,no1 we have to stick to brass tacks and leave ,washington out of this4 ,what1 specifically1 has the work of this specific department done that would make it as worthy to receive money as--say1 a heart disease research fund8 ,he began to tap the corner of his book absently on the desk1 watching me4 ,fundamental research doesn't show immediate effects1 ,mr4 ,halloway1 but its value is recognized4 ,i smiled and took out my pipe4 ,all right1 tell me about it4 ,maybe ,i'll recognize its value4 ,prof4 ,caswell smiled back tightly4 ,he knew his department was at stake4 ,the other departments were popular with donors and pulled in gift money by scholarships and fellowships1 and supported their professors and graduate students by research contracts with the government and industry4 ,caswell had to show a way to make his own department popular--or else4 ,i couldn't fire him directly1 of course1 but there are ways of doing it indirectly4 99 99 99 99 99 ,he laid down his book and ran a hand over his ruffled hair4 ,institutions--organizations1 that is-- his voice became more resonant2 like most professors1 when he had to explain something he instinctively slipped into his platform lecture mannerisms1 and began to deliver an essay--have certain tendencies built into the way they happen to have been organized1 which cause them to expand or contract without reference to the needs they were founded to serve4 ,he was becoming flushed with the pleasure of explaining his subject4 ,all through the ages1 it has been a matter of wonder and dismay to men that a simple organization--such as a church to worship in1 or a delegation of weapons to a warrior class merely for defense against an outside enemy--will either grow insensately and extend its control until it is a tyranny over their whole lives1 or1 like other organizations set up to serve a vital need1 will tend to repeatedly dwindle and vanish1 and have to be painfully rebuilt4 ,the reason can be traced to little quirks in the way they were organized1 a matter of positive and negative power feedbacks4 ,such simple questions as1 ',is there a way a holder of authority in this organization can use the power available to him to increase his power8' provide the key4 ,but it still could not be handled until the complex questions of interacting motives and long-range accumulations of minor effects could somehow be simplified and formulated4 ,in working on the problem1 ,i found that the mathematics of open system1 as introduced to biology by ,ludwig von ,bertalanffy and ,george ,kreezer1 could be used as a base that would enable me to develop a specifically social mathematics1 expressing the human factors of intermeshing authority and motives in simple formulas4 ,by these formulations1 it is possible to determine automatically the amount of growth and period of life of any organization4 ,the ,,un1 to choose an unfortunate example1 is a shrinker type organization4 ,its monetary support is not in the hands of those who personally benefit by its governmental activities1 but1 instead1 in the hands of those who would personally lose by any extension and encroachment of its authority on their own4 ,yet by the use of formula analysis-- ,that's theory1 ,i said4 ,how about proof8 ,my equations are already being used in the study of limited-size ,federal corporations4 ,washington-- ,i held up my palm again4 ,please1 not that nasty word again4 ,i mean1 where else has it been put into operation8 ,just a simple demonstration1 something to show that it works1 that's all4 ,he looked away from me thoughtfully1 picked up the book and began to tap it on the desk again4 ,it had some unreadable title and his name on it in gold letters4 ,i got the distinct impression again that he was repressing an urge to hit me with it4 ,he spoke quietly4 ,all right1 ,i'll give you a demonstration4 ,are you willing to wait six months8 ,certainly1 if you can show me something at the end of that time4 ,reminded of time1 ,i glanced at my watch and stood up4 ,could we discuss this over lunch8 he asked4 ,i wouldn't mind hearing more1 but ,i'm having lunch with some executors of a millionaire's will4 ,they have to be convinced that by1 'furtherance of research into human ills1' he meant that the money should go to research fellowships for postgraduate biologists at the university1 rather than to a medical foundation4 ,i see you have your problems1 too1 ,caswell said1 conceding me nothing4 ,he extended his hand with a chilly smile4 ,well1 good afternoon1 ,mr4 ,halloway4 ,i'm glad we had this talk4 ,i shook hands and left him standing there1 sure of his place in the progress of science and the respect of his colleagues1 yet seething inside because ,i1 the president and dean1 had boorishly demanded that he produce something tangible4 ,i frankly didn't give a hoot if he blew his lid4 ,my job isn't easy4 ,for a crumb of favorable publicity and respect in the newspapers and an annual ceremony in a silly costume1 ,i spend the rest of the year going hat in hand1 asking politely for money at everyone's door1 like a well-dressed panhandler1 and trying to manage the university on the dribble ,i get4 ,as far as ,i was concerned1 a department had to support itself or be cut down to what student tuition pays for1 which is a handful of over-crowded courses taught by an assistant lecturer4 ,caswell had to make it work or get out4 ,but the more ,i thought about it1 the more ,i wanted to hear what he was going to do for a demonstration4 99 99 99 99 99 ,at lunch1 three days later1 while we were waiting for our order1 he opened a small notebook4 ,ever hear of feedback effects8 ,not enough to have it clear4 ,you know the snowball effect1 though4 ,sure1 start a snowball rolling downhill and it grows4 ,well1 now-- ,he wrote a short line of symbols on a blank page and turned the notebook around for me to inspect it4 ,here's the formula for the snowball process4 ,it's the basic general growth formula--covers everything4 ,it was a row of little symbols arranged like an algebra equation4 ,one was a concentric spiral going up1 like a cross-section of a snowball rolling in snow4 ,that was a growth sign4 ,i hadn't expected to understand the equation1 but it was almost as clear as a sentence4 ,i was impressed and slightly intimidated by it4 ,he had already explained enough so that ,i knew that1 if he was right1 here was the growth of the ,catholic ,church and the ,roman ,empire1 the conquests of ,alexander and the spread of the smoking habit and the change and rigidity of the unwritten law of styles4 ,is it really as simple as that8 ,i asked4 ,you notice1 he said1 that when it becomes too heavy for the cohesion strength of snow1 it breaks apart4 ,now in human terms-- ,the chops and mashed potatoes and peas arrived4 ,go on1 ,i urged4 ,he was deep in the symbology of human motives and the equations of human behavior in groups4 ,after running through a few different types of grower and shrinker type organizations1 we came back to the snowball1 and decided to run the test by making something grow4 ,you add the motives1 he said1 and the equation will translate them into organization4 ,how about a good selfish reason for the ins to drag others into the group--some sort of bounty on new members1 a cut of their membership fee8 ,i suggested uncertainly1 feeling slightly foolish4 ,and maybe a reason why the members would lose if any of them resigned1 and some indirect way they could use to force each other to stay in4 ,the first is the chain letter principle1 he nodded4 ,i've got that4 ,the other4444 ,he put the symbols through some mathematical manipulation so that a special grouping appeared in the middle of the equation4 ,that's it4 ,since ,i seemed to have the right idea1 ,i suggested some more1 and he added some1 and juggled them around in different patterns4 ,we threw out a few that would have made the organization too complicated1 and finally worked out an idyllically simple and deadly little organization setup where joining had all the temptation of buying a sweepstakes ticket1 going in deeper was as easy as hanging around a race track1 and getting out was like trying to pull free from a ,malayan thumb trap4 ,we put our heads closer together and talked lower1 picking the best place for the demonstration4 ,abington8 ,how about ,watashaw8 ,i have some student sociological surveys of it already4 ,we can pick a suitable group from that4 ,this demonstration has got to be convincing4 ,we'd better pick a little group that no one in his right mind would expect to grow4 ,there should be a suitable club-- ,picture ,professor ,caswell1 head of the ,department of ,sociology1 and with him the ,president of the ,university1 leaning across the table toward each other1 sipping coffee and talking in conspiratorial tones over something they were writing in a notebook4 ,that was us4 99 99 99 99 99 ,ladies1 said the skinny female chairman of the ,watashaw ,sewing ,circle4 ,today we have guests4 ,she signaled for us to rise1 and we stood up1 bowing to polite applause and smiles4 ,professor ,caswell1 and ,professor ,smith4 7,my alias47 ,they are making a survey of the methods and duties of the clubs of ,watashaw4 ,we sat down to another ripple of applause and slightly wider smiles1 and then the meeting of the ,watashaw ,sewing ,circle began4 ,in five minutes ,i began to feel sleepy4 ,there were only about thirty people there1 and it was a small room1 not the halls of ,congress1 but they discussed their business of collecting and repairing second hand clothing for charity with the same endless boring parliamentary formality4 ,i pointed out to ,caswell the member ,i thought would be the natural leader1 a tall1 well-built woman in a green suit1 with conscious gestures and a resonant1 penetrating voice1 and then went into a half doze while ,caswell stayed awake beside me and wrote in his notebook4 ,after a while the resonant voice roused me to attention for a moment4 ,it was the tall woman holding the floor over some collective dereliction of the club4 ,she was being scathing4 ,i nudged ,caswell and murmured1 ,did you fix it so that a shover has a better chance of getting into office than a non-shover8 ,i think there's a way they could find for it1 ,caswell whispered back1 and went to work on his equation again4 ,yes1 several ways to bias the elections4 ,good4 ,point them out tactfully to the one you select4 ,not as if she'd use such methods1 but just as an example of the reason why only she can be trusted with initiating the change4 ,just mention all the personal advantages an unscrupulous person could have4 ,he nodded1 keeping a straight and sober face as if we were exchanging admiring remarks about the techniques of clothes repairing1 instead of conspiring4 ,after the meeting1 ,caswell drew the tall woman in the green suit aside and spoke to her confidentially1 showing her the diagram of organization we had drawn up4 ,i saw the responsive glitter in the woman's eyes and knew she was hooked4 ,we left the diagram of organization and our typed copy of the new bylaws with her and went off soberly1 as befitted two social science experimenters4 ,we didn't start laughing until our car passed the town limits and began the climb for ,university ,heights4 ,if ,caswell's equations meant anything at all1 we had given that sewing circle more growth drives than the ,roman ,empire4 99 99 99 99 99 ,four months later ,i had time out from a very busy schedule to wonder how the test was coming along4 ,passing ,caswell's office1 ,i put my head in4 ,he looked up from a student research paper he was correcting4 ,caswell1 about that sewing club business--,i'm beginning to feel the suspense4 ,could ,i get an advance report on how it's coming8 ,i'm not following it4 ,we're supposed to let it run the full six months4 ,but ,i'm curious4 ,could ,i get in touch with that woman--what's her name8 ,searles4 ,mrs4 ,george ,searles4 ,would that change the results8 ,not in the slightest4 ,if you want to graph the membership rise1 it should be going up in a log curve1 probably doubling every so often4 ,i grinned4 ,if it's not rising1 you're fired4 ,he grinned back4 ,if it's not rising1 you won't have to fire me--,i'll burn my books and shoot myself4 ,i returned to my office and put in a call to ,watashaw4 ,while ,i was waiting for the phone to be answered1 ,i took a piece of graph paper and ruled it off into six sections1 one for each month4 ,after the phone had rung in the distance for a long time1 a servant answered with a bored drawl3 ,mrs4 ,searles' residence4 ,i picked up a red gummed star and licked it4 ,mrs4 ,searles1 please4 ,she's not in just now4 ,could ,i take a message8 ,i placed the star at the thirty line in the beginning of the first section4 ,thirty members they'd started with4 ,no1 thanks4 ,could you tell me when she'll be back8 ,not until dinner4 ,she's at the meetin'4 ,the sewing club8 ,i asked4 ,no1 sir1 not that thing4 ,there isn't any ,sewing club any more1 not for a long time4 ,she's at the ,civic ,welfare meeting4 ,somehow ,i hadn't expected anything like that4 ,thank you1 ,i said and hung up1 and after a moment noticed ,i was holding a box of red gummed stars in my hand4 ,i closed it and put it down on top of the graph of membership in the sewing circle4 ,no more members4444 ,poor ,caswell4 ,the bet between us was ironclad4 ,he wouldn't let me back down on it even if ,i wanted to4 ,he'd probably quit before ,i put through the first slow move to fire him4 ,his professional pride would be shattered1 sunk without a trace4 ,i remembered what he said about shooting himself4 ,it had seemed funny to both of us at the time1 but4444 ,what a mess that would make for the university4 ,i had to talk to ,mrs4 ,searles4 ,perhaps there was some outside reason why the club had disbanded4 ,perhaps it had not just died4 ,i called back4 ,this is ,professor ,smith1 ,i said1 giving the alias ,i had used before4 ,i called a few minutes ago4 ,when did you say ,mrs4 ,searles will return8 ,about six-thirty or seven o'clock4 ,five hours to wait4 ,and what if ,caswell asked me what ,i had found out in the meantime8 ,i didn't want to tell him anything until ,i had talked it over with that woman ,searles first4 ,where is this ,civic ,welfare meeting8 ,she told me4 ,five minutes later1 ,i was in my car1 heading for ,watashaw1 driving considerably faster than my usual speed and keeping a careful watch for highway patrol cars as the speedometer climbed4 99 99 99 99 99 ,the town meeting hall and theater was a big place1 probably with lots of small rooms for different clubs4 ,i went in through the center door and found myself in the huge central hall where some sort of rally was being held4 ,a political-type rally--you know1 cheers and chants1 with bunting already down on the floor1 people holding banners1 and plenty of enthusiasm and excitement in the air4 ,someone was making a speech up on the platform4 ,most of the people there were women4 ,i wondered how the ,civic ,welfare ,league could dare hold its meeting at the same time as a political rally that could pull its members away4 ,the group with ,mrs4 ,searles was probably holding a shrunken and almost memberless meeting somewhere in an upper room4 ,there probably was a side door that would lead upstairs4 ,while ,i glanced around1 a pretty girl usher put a printed bulletin in my hand1 whispering1 ,here's one of the new copies4 ,as ,i attempted to hand it back1 she retreated4 ,oh1 you can keep it4 ,it's the new one4 ,everyone's supposed to have it4 ,we've just printed up six thousand copies to make sure there'll be enough to last4 ,the tall woman on the platform had been making a driving1 forceful speech about some plans for rebuilding ,watashaw's slum section4 ,it began to penetrate my mind dimly as ,i glanced down at the bulletin in my hands4 ,civic ,welfare ,league of ,watashaw4 ,the ,united ,organization of ,church and ,secular ,charities4 ,that's what it said4 ,below began the rules of membership4 ,i looked up4 ,the speaker1 with a clear1 determined voice and conscious1 forceful gestures1 had entered the homestretch of her speech1 an appeal to the civic pride of all citizens of ,watashaw4 ,with a bright and glorious future--potentially without poor and without uncared-for ill--potentially with no ugliness1 no vistas which are not beautiful--the best people in the best planned town in the country--the jewel of the ,united ,states4 ,she paused and then leaned forward intensely1 striking her clenched hand on the speaker's stand with each word for emphasis4 ,all we need is more members4 ,now get out there and recruit6 ,i finally recognized ,mrs4 ,searles1 as an answering sudden blast of sound half deafened me4 ,the crowd was chanting at the top of its lungs3 ,recruit6 ,recruit6 ,mrs4 ,searles stood still at the speaker's table and behind her1 seated in a row of chairs1 was a group that was probably the board of directors4 ,it was mostly women1 and the women began to look vaguely familiar1 as if they could be members of the sewing circle4 ,i put my lips close to the ear of the pretty usher while ,i turned over the stiff printed bulletin on a hunch4 ,how long has the ,league been organized8 ,on the back of the bulletin was a constitution4 ,she was cheering with the crowd1 her eyes sparkling4 ,i don't know1 she answered between cheers4 ,i only joined two days ago4 ,isn't it wonderful8 ,i went into the quiet outer air and got into my car with my skin prickling4 ,even as ,i drove away1 ,i could hear them4 ,they were singing some kind of organization song with the tune of ,marching through ,georgia4 ,even at the single glance ,i had given it1 the constitution looked exactly like the one we had given the ,watashaw ,sewing ,circle4 ,all ,i told ,caswell when ,i got back was that the sewing circle had changed its name and the membership seemed to be rising4 99 99 99 99 99 ,next day1 after calling ,mrs4 ,searles1 ,i placed some red stars on my graph for the first three months4 ,they made a nice curve1 rising more steeply as it reached the fourth month4 ,they had picked up their first increase in membership simply by amalgamating with all the other types of charity organizations in ,watashaw1 changing the club name with each fusion1 but keeping the same constitution--the constitution with the bright promise of advantages as long as there were always new members being brought in4 ,by the fifth month1 the ,league had added a mutual baby-sitting service and had induced the local school board to add a nursery school to the town service1 so as to free more women for ,league activity4 ,but charity must have been completely organized by then1 and expansion had to be in other directions4 ,some real estate agents evidently had been drawn into the whirlpool early1 along with their ideas4 ,the slum improvement plans began to blossom and take on a tinge of real estate planning later in the month4 ,the first day of the sixth month1 a big two page spread appeared in the local paper of a mass meeting which had approved a full-fledged scheme for slum clearance of ,watashaw's shack-town section1 plus plans for rehousing1 civic building1 and rezoning4 ,and good prospects for attracting some new industries to the town1 industries which had already been contacted and seemed interested by the privileges offered4 ,and with all this1 an arrangement for securing and distributing to the club members alone most of the profit that would come to the town in the form of a rise in the price of building sites and a boom in the building industry4 ,the profit distributing arrangement was the same one that had been built into the organization plan for the distribution of the small profits of membership fees and honorary promotions4 ,it was becoming an openly profitable business4 ,membership was rising more rapidly now4 ,by the second week of the sixth month1 news appeared in the local paper that the club had filed an application to incorporate itself as the ,watashaw ,mutual ,trade and ,civic ,development ,corporation1 and all the local real estate promoters had finished joining en masse4 ,the ,mutual ,trade part sounded to me as if the ,chamber of ,commerce was on the point of being pulled in with them1 ideas1 ambitions and all4 ,i chuckled while reading the next page of the paper1 on which a local politician was reported as having addressed the club with a long flowery oration on their enterprise1 charity1 and civic spirit4 ,he had been made an honorary member4 ,if he allowed himself to be made a full member with its contractual obligations and its lures1 if the politicians went into this1 too4444 ,i laughed1 filing the newspaper with the other documents on the ,watashaw test4 ,these proofs would fascinate any businessman with the sense to see where his bread was buttered4 ,a businessman is constantly dealing with organizations1 including his own1 and finding them either inert1 cantankerous1 or both4 ,caswell's formula could be a handle to grasp them with4 ,gratitude alone would bring money into the university in carload lots4 99 99 99 99 99 ,the end of the sixth month came4 ,the test was over and the end reports were spectacular4 ,caswell's formulas were proven to the hilt4 ,after reading the last newspaper reports1 ,i called him up4 ,perfect1 ,wilt1 perfect6 ,i can use this ,watashaw thing to get you so many fellowships and scholarships and grants for your department that you'll think it's snowing money6 ,he answered somewhat disinterestedly1 ,i've been busy working with students on their research papers and marking tests--not following the ,watashaw business at all1 ,i'm afraid4 ,you say the demonstration went well and you're satisfied8 ,he was definitely putting on a chill4 ,we were friends now1 but obviously he was still peeved whenever he was reminded that ,i had doubted that his theory could work4 ,and he was using its success to rub my nose in the realization that ,i had been wrong4 ,a man with a string of degrees after his name is just as human as anyone else4 ,i had needled him pretty hard that first time4 ,i'm satisfied1 ,i acknowledged4 ,i was wrong4 ,the formulas work beautifully4 ,come over and see my file of documents on it if you want a boost for your ego4 ,now let's see the formula for stopping it4 ,he sounded cheerful again4 ,i didn't complicate that organization with negatives4 ,i wanted it to grow4 ,it falls apart naturally when it stops growing for more than two months4 ,it's like the great stock boom before an economic crash4 ,everyone in it is prosperous as long as the prices just keep going up and new buyers come into the market1 but they all knew what would happen if it stopped growing4 ,you remember1 we built in as one of the incentives that the members know they are going to lose if membership stops growing4 ,why1 if ,i tried to stop it now1 they'd cut my throat4 ,i remembered the drive and frenzy of the crowd in the one early meeting ,i had seen4 ,they probably would4 ,no1 he continued4 ,we'll just let it play out to the end of its tether and die of old age4 ,when will that be8 ,it can't grow past the female population of the town4 ,there are only so many women in ,watashaw1 and some of them don't like sewing4 ,the graph on the desk before me began to look sinister4 ,surely ,caswell must have made some provision for-- ,you underestimate their ingenuity1 ,i said into the phone4 ,since they wanted to expand1 they didn't stick to sewing4 ,they went from general charity to social welfare schemes to something that's pretty close to an incorporated government4 ,the name is now the ,watashaw ,mutual ,trade and ,civic ,development ,corporation1 and they're filing an application to change it to ,civic ,property ,pool and ,social ,dividend1 membership contractual1 open to all4 ,that social dividend sounds like a ,technocrat climbed on the band wagon1 eh8 ,while ,i spoke1 ,i carefully added another red star to the curve above the thousand member level1 checking with the newspaper that still lay open on my desk4 ,the curve was definitely some sort of log curve now1 growing more rapidly with each increase4 ,leaving out practical limitations for a moment1 where does the formula say it will stop8 ,i asked4 ,when you run out of people to join it4 ,but after all1 there are only so many people in ,watashaw4 ,it's a pretty small town4 99 99 99 99 99 ,they've opened a branch office in ,new ,york1 ,i said carefully into the phone1 a few weeks later4 ,with my pencil1 very carefully1 ,i extended the membership curve from where it was then4 ,after the next doubling1 the curve went almost straight up and off the page4 ,allowing for a lag of contagion from one nation to another1 depending on how much their citizens intermingled1 ,i'd give the rest of the world about twelve years4 ,there was a long silence while ,caswell probably drew the same graph in his own mind4 ,then he laughed weakly4 ,well1 you asked me for a demonstration4 ,that was as good an answer as any4 ,we got together and had lunch in a bar1 if you can call it lunch4 ,the movement we started will expand by hook or by crook1 by seduction or by bribery or by propaganda or by conquest1 but it will expand4 ,and maybe a total world government will be a fine thing--until it hits the end of its rope in twelve years or so4 ,what happens then1 ,i don't know4 ,but ,i don't want anyone to pin that on me4 ,from now on1 if anyone asks me1 ,i've never heard of ,watashaw4