,a ,,hundred ,,years ,,hence            
,the ,expectations of an ,optimist      
,by                              ,t4    
,,baron ,,russell                       
,author of               ,a ,guardian of
 the ,poor1 ,the ,mandate1 etc4         
,,london                                
,t4 ,fisher ,unwin                      
,paternoster ,square                    
#aije                                   
,there is a history in all men's lives1 
,figuring the nature of the times       
deceased2                  ,the which   
observed1 a man may prophesy1           
,with a near aim1 of the main chance of 
things                  ,as yet not come
 to life2 which in their seeds          
,and weak beginnings lie intreasured4   
,shakespeare1 #b ,henry ,,iv41 ,,iii4 i4
                        ,they pass      
through whirl-pools1 and deep woes do   
shun1                  ,who the event   
weigh1 'ere the action's done4          
,webster1 ,duchess of ,malfi1 ,,ii4 #d4 
,,preface      ,the following was at    

first intended to be no more than an    
attempt to  foresee the probable trend  
of mechanical invention and scientific  
discovery during the present century4   
,but as the work took shape  it was seen
 to involve a certain amount of what may
 be called  moral conjecture1 since the 
material progress of the new age could  
not very well be imagined without taking
 into account its mental                
characteristics4 ,in these expectations 
of an optimist1 a great  ethical        
improvement of the civilised human race 
has been anticipated1  and a rate of    
progress foreseen which perhaps no      
previous writers  have looked for4 ,both
 in regard to moral development and     
material  progress1 it has been the aim 
of the author to predict nothing that   
the tendencies of existing movement do  
not justify us in expecting4    ,an     
attempt of this kind is exposed to      
facile criticism4 ,it will be easy  for 
objectors to signalise this or that     
expected invention as beyond  scientific

 possibility1 that or the other moral   
reform as fit only for  ,utopia4 ,but   
those who will consent to perpend the   
enormous and utterly  unforeseen advance
 of the nineteenth century will         
recognise the danger  of limiting their 
anticipations concerning the            
possibilities of the  twenty-first4 ,a  
fanciful description in 7,i think7      
,addison's ,spectator  of an invention  
by which the movements of an indicator  
on a lettered  dial were imagined to be 
reproduced on a similar dial at a       
distance1  and employed as a means of   
communication1 must have seemed wholly  
chimerical to its readers2 and even as  
recently as fifty years ago1  anyone who
 predicted the telephone would have been
 laughed at4 ,when  the principle of the
 accumulator was already discovered a   
very  competent practical electrician   
told the writer that he need not  worry 
himself much about the idea3 there was  
not the least likelihood  that          
electricity could ever be bottled up in 

cisterns6 ,on the whole  there is more  
likelihood of error in timidity than in 
boldness when  we attempt to foresee    
what will be attained after the         
increasingly  rapid movement of         
scientific progress during this         
twentieth century  shall have gathered  
full force4    ,for the rest1 criticism 
of this sort is disarmed1 because the   
reader  has been in any case invited to 
enter a realm of more or less pure      
imagination4 ,no one can exactly know   
with what births1 monstrous or          
beautiful1 the future may teem4         
,admitting a certain point of view--that
  of almost unrestrained optimism--the  
predictions here offered will1  it is   
believed1 be found to be along the line 
of existing progress4          ,beaufort
 ,house1        ,brentford4             
,,contents          ,,chap4             
,,page           ,i4   ,the ,rate of    
,progress                               
#a        ,,ii4   ,housing1 ,travel and 
,population4 ,questions        #ac      

,,iii4   ,the ,man of ,business         
#ch        ,,iv4   ,the ,cult of        
,pleasure                               
#ed         ,v4   ,the ,newspaper of the
 ,future and the ,future of             
the ,newspaper                          
#fh        ,,vi4   ,utilising the ,sea  
#ie       ,,vii4   ,the ,march of       
,science                            #ajf
      ,,viii4   ,education a ,hundred   
,years ,hence                 #acd      
,,ix4   ,religion3 the ,fine ,arts1     
,literature             #age         ,x4
   ,the ,age of ,economies              
#bje        ,,xi4   ,the ,law a ,hundred
 ,years ,hence                   #bcc   
,,xii4   ,conclusions                   
#bhf              ,,index               
#cji                ,a ,,hundred ,,years
 ,,hence      ,,chapter ,i    ,,the     
,,rate ,,of ,,progress      ,to anyone  
who has considered at all attentively   
the enormous material  advances of the  
nineteenth century1 a much more         
remarkable thing than  any invention or 

improvement which that century brought  
forth must  be the speed of human       
progression during the hundred years    
between  #ahjj and #aijj1 and the       
extraordinary acceleration of that speed
  which began to establish itself about 
the year #ahhj4 ,but indeed1  during the
 whole century1 our forward movement was
 steadily gaining  impetus4 ,the        
difference between the state of the     
world in #agjj and  its state in #ahjj  
is insignificant compared with the      
differences  established between the    
latter date and the opening of the      
twentieth  century4 ,but it is hardly   
less insignificant than the progress of 
the  decade #ahjj-ahaj compared with    
that of the decade #ahij-aijj4 ,we are1 
in fact1 picking up speed at an enormous
 rate4 ,the beginning of the            
twenty-first century will exhibit       
differences1 when compared with  our own
 day1 which even the boldest imagination
 can hardly need to be  restrained in   
conjecturing4 ,the latter part of the   

nineteenth century  was the age of      
electricity1 just as the middle part was
 the age of  steam4 ,the first part of  
the twentieth century is evidently going
  to be the age of wave manipulation1 of
 which wireless telegraphy1  as we know 
it1 is but the first infantile stirring4
    ,what the developments promised 7and
 they are already quite easily          
presageable7 by wireless telegraphy will
 give us1 and what they  will be        
superseded by1 can only be very dimly   
imagined2 what their  effects will be   
upon the human race in itself no one has
 yet ventured  even to hint at4 ,few    
things are more remarkable in the       
numerous  and highly-varied experiments 
of vaticinatory fiction and more        
serious efforts of prognostication than 
the utter absence of any  adequate      
attempt to forecast the future of the   
race itself4 ,social  and political     
changes1 the enormous differences which 
are certain  to be effected in the      
manner of human life1 have been from    

time to  time more or less boldly       
imagined1 and a couple of volumes of    
very  able forecasts of the future have 
recently been published by a writer  of 
singular vision and highly-trained      
scientific imagination4 ,but it  does   
not hitherto appear to have been at all 
fully perceived that the  moral         
constitution of man himself is quite    
certain to be profoundly  modified1 not 
alone by the influence of a material    
environment  which will have been       
changed as the environment of man has   
never  been changed since the first     
inhabitation of this planet1 but also   
by the steady development of inward     
changes which have already begun  to    
manifest themselves4 ,since the year    
#ahjj ideas which1 so far as  we have   
any means of knowing1 had been regarded 
as irrefragable ever  since man first   
began to think and to set his thoughts  
upon record1  have been utterly         
shattered4 ,one has only to compare the 
opinions of  even average thinkers of   

our own day on such subjects as         
marriage1  the status of woman1 and the 
education of children1 with the         
opinions1  practically current without  
material change since the dawn of       
history1  in #ahjj1 to perceive the     
truth of this statement2 and the change 
of  attitude on the part of civilised   
people1 outside the ,roman ,catholic    
,church 7and1 to some extent1 even      
within it71 towards religion is not     
less remarkable4 ,an enlightened man of 
the present day is so radically         
different in all his ideas from a       
similar individual of the early         
nineteenth century1 that it is hardly   
possible for a modern student  to write 
with any intelligence on the deeper     
significance of events  and life prior  
to #ahjj4 ,grotesquely inadequate as    
most historical  novels of our own day  
are1 they are perhaps hardly less       
inadequate  than our own understanding  
of the novels of ,sir ,walter ,scott4   
,scott  could probably write of         

crusaders and the age of chivalry       
without  committing serious blunders of 
sentiment4 ,what the world thought  in  
the age of ,saladin the world           
practically thought in the age of       
,napoleon4 ,but the irresistible        
infection of modern ideas has made it   
hardly possible for us to enter with any
 fulness into the sentiments  of ,scott2
 and the sentiments put into the mouth1 
and the thoughts  into the mind1 of the 
hero of any historical novel of our own 
day  would be utterly incomprehensible  
to that hero1 could he by some  miracle 
be resuscitated1 and could we translate 
them literally to  him4 ,we             
unconsciously endow the personages of   
our historical fiction  with ideas for  
which they had not even the names4      
,and the development of the human mind  
proceeds apace4 ,it will be  even more  
difficult for the ordinary cultured man 
of a hundred years  hence to form any   
full conception of our ideas than it is 
for us to  appraise the mental attitude 

of the men of the eighteenth century4   
,to  take a single example3 the humanest
 warrior of the ,napoleonic wars        
appears a monster of cruelty if compared
 with the sternest of modern  generals4 
,napoleon devastated provinces without a
 word of censure  from competent critics
 of the art of war4 ,a howl of          
execration went  up1 not from           
continental ,europe alone1 at the       
measures--seriously  embarrassing to our
 military operations1 and enormously    
helpful to  our enemy--which the        
,british generals took in order to      
diminish the  sufferings of the         
non-combatant population of the         
,transvaal2 camps  of refuge1 it        
appears1 did not sufficiently excel in  
comfort the  hospitals of our own       
wounded6 ,and there is a section of the 
,press in  this country which still     
occasionally remembers1 to complain of  
it1  the fact that our generals found it
 necessary1 for military reasons1  to   
burn farm-houses4 ,i should not like to 

attempt the conjecture1  what           
,wellington would have said in answer to
 such a complaint1 or  what he would    
have done to a self-appointed emissary  
who visited  his camps for the purpose  
of criticising his action6 ,it would    
have  been no more impossible for him to
 foresee the day of such things1        
however1 than it is for us to predict   
the moral sense of the year  #bjjj4 ,the
 fact is that we have greatly           
deteriorated in war1 although1  or      
rather because1 we have even more       
greatly improved in morals and  feeling4
 ,william ,morris conceived of man in   
the coming time as a  sort of recreated 
medival4 ,mr ,wells conceives him as    
practically a  nineteenth-century man1  
with his ideas merely adjusted to new   
material  conditions4 ,bellamy described
 him in terms of a being inconceivable  
by any sort of reason4 ,no one appears  
to have seen that his moral  nature will
 have been not merely revolutionised1   
but recreated1 just  as our own morality

 has been recreated during the last     
hundred years1  not so much by the      
influence of material environment or the
 march of  invention1 as by the         
regeneration of human conscience4    ,in
 no way will the acceleration of the    
speed of progress be more  apparent than
 in the thoughts and emotions of men4   
,but to say this  is not to belittle the
 progress which science and invention   
have in  store for the new age4 ,in     
applying a sort of imaginative telescope
  to the mental eye it will be necessary
 to keep constantly in view  the utter  
inconceivableness of modern achievement 
by the civilised  world of the past4    
,when electricity was no more than a    
sort of  scientific plaything--when     
notions of its possible uses were 7as in
  ,davy's time7 far less substantially  
imagined than1 for instance1 the        
possible uses of radium are to-day1 even
 scientific thinkers1 endowed  with what
 ,huxley so luminously applauded as     
scientific imagination1  had no rudiment

 of the materials for conceiving such   
inventions as  the electric             
telegraph--far less the possibilities of
 transmitted  and picked-up wave energy4
 ,and here1 at the beginning of wireless
  telegraphy1 we are no less in the dark
 as to what will develop from  it and   
what will supersede it4 ,the nineteenth 
century progressed1  almost from first  
to last1 on the strength of the         
discovery of how  to utilise the stored 
energy of coal1 whether directly in the 
steam  engine or indirectly in the      
dynamo-electric machine and the electric
  motor4 ,with the end of the coal age  
already well in view1 we can only       
conjecture what the sources of          
mechanical power will be a hundred      
years hence4 ,before we have quite      
exhausted our coal measures and  begun  
to draw more liberally on our stores of 
petroleum1 we shall  no doubt have      
abandoned altogether so wasteful a      
contrivance as the  steam engine4 ,there
 is a clumsiness almost barbarous in the

 roundabout  employment of coal to      
produce heat1 the steam engine to       
utilise only  a miserable fraction of   
the potential energy even of the part of
  the coal which we do not fatuously    
allow to escape as smoke2 of the  dynamo
 to use up a part of the motion yielded 
by the steam engine  in producing       
electricity 7while a small but          
recognisable portion of  that motion is 
converted wastefully back again into    
heat71 and of the  electro-motor to     
re-convert the electricity into motion1 
heat1 light  and chemical energy1       
according to our requirements4 ,it      
cannot be many  years before we learn to
 use coal far more economically than we 
do  nowadays1 abolishing the furnace and
 the steam engine1 and obtaining        
electricity directly from coal itself by
 some sort of electro-chemical          
decomposition4 ,but even so1 our coal   
will not last much longer4 ,the  speed  
of our progress will exhaust it much    
sooner than most people  imagine1 and   

probably in another twenty-five years   
the end of our  petroleum will also     
begin to be looked forward to with      
apprehension4    ,about this period1 or 
perhaps immediately after1 progress will
 have  been accelerated to an enormous  
degree by the invention of some new     
method of decomposing water4 ,the       
economical analysis of water into its   
two component gases1 whose chemical     
affinity and antipodal electrical       
attractions are already utilised to some
 extent in such appliances  as the      
oxy-hydrogen blowpipe and electrical    
storage batteries1 is  a secret capable 
of extraordinary beneficences to the new
 age4 ,by  burning hydrogen in oxygen we
 can already produce the greatest heat  
practically needed in the arts2 the     
electric furnace only superseding  this 
process because it happens to be more   
manageable4 ,but when we  want oxygen   
and hydrogen1 we do not1 in practice1   
now obtain them from  water3 we only    
combine them as water in the act of     

utilisation4 ,the  rational line of     
progress is obviously to seek means of  
directly  decomposing water4 ,when we   
can do this compendiously and           
economically  we shall have an          
inexhaustible supply of energy--for     
water thus  used is not destroyed as    
water1 as coal is destroyed1 qu coal1   
when we utilise its stored energy4 ,the 
very act of utilising the  gases        
recombines them3 and we can use them    
thus for the production  of almost every
 kind of energy that man at present     
needs4 ,we can use  them for heat by    
burning them together4 ,we can use them 
for light by  burning them in the       
presence of any substance capable of    
being made  incandescent4 ,we shall be  
able to use them to generate electricity
  by some sort of contrivance akin to   
the accumulator of the present  day 7a  
highly rudimentary invention72 and it   
would be even now a  very simple matter 
to utilise their explosive recombination
 for the  direct production of power as 

motion4 ,utilised apart1 the constituent
  gases of water have many other uses   
and possible uses4 ,hydrogen1  under    
suitable treatment1 yields the greatest 
obtainable cold1  as oxygen and hydrogen
 together yield the greatest heat4 ,if  
our  flying-machines need a sort of     
ballast to reinforce their mechanical   
lifting apparatus1 hydrogen is the best 
possible assistant4 ,and the  probable  
uses of oxygen are yet more numerous4   
,so long as we still  burn anything at  
all except a mixture of oxygen and      
hydrogen--and  ultimately we shall have 
nothing else left to burn--oxygen is    
capable  of multiplying the efficiency  
of all combustion4 ,one of the greatest 
problems of our own day is the disposal 
of waste products of all  sorts--the    
sources of inconvenience1 disease and   
dirt4 ,oxygen1  if readily and copiously
 obtainable1 is capable of destroying   
them  all4 ,indeed1 it seems likely that
 medicine1 the least progressive of  the
 sciences to-day1 will find in oxygen   

the great propulsive force of  its      
forward movement4 ,in considerably less 
than a hundred years hence  such        
makeshifts as drugging1 and the fighting
 of one disease by the  instalment in   
the organism of another1 will certainly 
have gone by  the board4 ,antisepsis and
 ,asepsis 7the latter almost infinitely 
the  greatest invention in the history  
of therapeutics7 will have pushed  their
 way from surgery into medicine4 ,there 
are numerous diseases  which can be not 
merely cured1 but ultimately abolished  
when we have  once discovered how to use
 oxygen adequately4 ,the readjustment of
  the conditions of life determined by  
the removal from the civilised  world of
 the greater number of diseases1 and    
perhaps of all diseases  except those   
arising out of wilful misconduct 7as    
improper diet7 and  even by the         
elimination of most of the evils of     
hurry and overwork  7for what are       
medically and chemically known as       
fatigue products can  almost certainly  

be eliminated from the system by the    
proper use1  yet to be discovered1 of   
oxygen7 must inevitably have an enormous
  influence not merely upon the physical
 life of man1 but also1 and  even more1 
upon his mental constitution4 ,the rate 
of progress will  thus in yet another   
way be vastly accelerated4    ,most     
likely the universal source of power1   
then1 before the middle  of the century1
 will be the recomposition of water--in 
other words1  we shall get all the power
 we want by splitting up water into     
oxygen  and hydrogen1 and then allowing 
those gases to recombine1 thereby       
returning to us the energy we have      
employed in the analysis4 ,how  we shall
 employ this power is largely for the   
future to decide1 and  certainly in the 
earlier future we shall employ it in the
 generation  of etheric waves of various
 kinds4 ,the world of science is visibly
  on the threshold of new and           
revolutionary discoveries on the nature 
and composition of matter1 and whither  

these discoveries will lead us  it is   
not usefully possible to conjecture4    
,but certainly1 after the  usual        
incubation period of a scientific       
discovery--when it is merely  a sort of 
wonderful toy1 as argon and radium are  
at present--there  will come the        
practical men1 suckled at the large and 
noble breasts of  disinterested1        
unremunerative truth1 and ready to turn 
that nutriment  into world-moving       
material usefulness3 so1 again1 the rate
 of progress  will receive a vast and   
valuable acceleration4 ,electricity1    
whose gift  to the world has been so    
great1 will probably not1 until after   
several  decades1 approach the limits of
 its realm1 and so long as electricity  
remains a considerable element in the   
utilisation of those stores  of         
dissipating energy by which the planet  
lives1 it is possible to  foresee       
something of what will become of man    
during the next age4    ,we have here   
the limits of such an inquiry as the    

present4 ,placing  the end of the age of
 electricity at provisionally about a   
hundred  years hence 7but it is quite   
conceivable that the rate of progress   
may  overtake it earlier and shut the   
door on conjecture7 it is possible to   
forecast1 not indeed with certainty1 but
 with a measure of imaginative          
probability1 what will happen as the    
resources of electricity are  developed 
and the other material amenities of the 
world are worked  along the line of     
natural progress4 ,so far as the light  
of analogy  can point the way the reader
 is invited on a sort of conjectural    
journey4 ,of the developments of the    
moral ideas of man likely to  be        
determined1 not so much by the coming   
change in his material  environment1 as 
by the evolution of inner forces already
 at work1  ,i propose to say something  
at the end of the book4 ,in the         
meantime1  the probable material changes
 in the next hundred years 7or less1    
according to the rate of our progress7  

in various departments of life  will be 
the subject of some intermediate        
conjectures4                ,,chapter   
,,ii    ,,housing1 ,,travel ,,and       
,,population ,,questions      ,when     
every allowance has been made for the   
material changes which the  progress of 
this century threatens1 it is easy to   
see that certain  present-day problems  
will continue to trouble our successors4
 ,some  things which perplex ourselves  
will1 ,i think1 work out their own      
remedy4 ,others will remain the subject 
of solutions not difficult to  be       
imagined in advance4    ,one chief      
difficulty which will infallibly        
confront the immediate  future1 and even
 the future that is more remote1 arises 
out of the  simple fact that the race of
 man tends to increase numerically at  a
 speed greater than our devices for its 
accommodation can quite  conveniently   
cope with4 ,the population of the world 
not only increases1  but increases at   
compound interest4 ,nor is this all4    

,improved  sanitation1 better habits of 
life1 and the progress of medicine1     
prolong lives that in the conditions of 
last century would have been  shortened1
 and the rate of increase is thus       
further accelerated1  as individuals who
 in different conditions would have     
died1 live  on1 perhaps reproducing     
their species1 and thus intensifying the
  population problem4 ,against these    
influences may be set the effect  of the
 restrictions imposed by some civilised 
peoples on the birth  rate1 which ,mr   
,roosevelt calls race suicide4 ,these   
practices1  just now increasingly       
prevalent1 retard the rate of increase1 
but  do not at present stop our         
increase3 they alleviate1 but do not    
cure  the difficulty of over-population4
 ,artificial physiological checks on    
population1 if ,i am right in certain   
other conjectures to be presently       
developed1 will not form part of the    
permanent morality of the new age1      
partly because1 with more enlightenment1

 they will be voluntarily  abandoned or 
superseded1 and partly because the      
necessity for them  will have           
disappeared1 having worked out its own  
cure4    ,but with all this it would be 
folly to anticipate that the population 
of the civilised world will not have    
greatly increased before the end  of the
 period contemplated by the present     
inquiry3 and this brings  us face to    
face with two very important            
questions--those of housing  and        
transport4 ,where shall we live1 and how
 shall we move from place  to           
place--above all1 how shall we proceed  
from home to the scene of  work and     
thence home again every day1 in the     
future8 ,shall we indeed  thus move back
 and forth at all8    ,the answer to the
 last question bifurcates somewhat4 ,in 
the  earlier future of 7say7 twenty or  
thirty years hence1 probably the        
greatest tendencies will be towards     
concentration on the one hand and       
exceedingly rapid transport on the      

other4 ,what the ultimate practice  will
 be1 it should not be difficult to guess
 when we see how these  tendencies are  
likely to work themselves out4          
,during the last twenty-five or thirty  
years of the nineteenth century  the    
tendency of workers in great cities was 
more and more towards  suburban life1   
men travelling to and from the cities in
 increasing  numbers1 to increasing     
distances1 and at increasing speeds4    
,even  mechanics1 even labourers and the
 other humbler wage-earners 7to say     
nothing of clerks not earning much more1
 but spending their money in  a         
different manner7 nowadays travel       
considerable distances to their  work4  
,but in spite of what is complacently   
regarded 7by railway and  tramway       
directors7 as rapid conveyance1 there is
 lately manifest an  increasing         
impatience against the time subtracted  
from men's leisure  by the two daily    
journeys1 an impatience very naturally  
increased in  the case of manual workers

 of both sexes by the utter inadequacy  
of  the legislative control imposed upon
 railway and tramway companies4         
,crowded trams and trains1 with         
desperate men and weak women fighting  a
 daily battle for conveyance before all 
the cheap trips have  been made1 inflict
 a shameful degradation upon the class  
for which  ,parliament makes illusory   
provision in railway and tramway ,acts4 
,as  a consequence of this difficulty1  
and also because of the early hour  at  
which the companies are allowed to cease
 carrying working-folk at  the workmen's
 fare1 many men and women are compelled 
to waste some  hours of their scanty    
leisure every day between the arrival of
 their  trains and the opening of their 
workshops1 a cruelty for which the      
blame may be pretty equally apportioned 
to ,parliament and the company          
directors4 ,the result of it is that    
many of the poor prefer the evil  of    
overcrowding in cities before the       
greater evil of wasted time  and        

degrading travel4 ,as time goes on1 no  
doubt the monopolists of  transportation
 will be compelled1 as their own        
necessities increase  and so bring them 
under the hand of the legislature1 to   
serve more  adequately the necessities  
of the majority4 ,but even so1 and as   
long as the effective speed of          
conveyance is limited by the lack  of   
permanent-way space and the necessity   
for frequent stations1  the impatience  
even now manifested1 and manifested     
chiefly by the  class which suffers     
least from loss of time in travel1 will 
lead to  concentration4 ,taking ,london 
as an example1 it may be said that the  
,victorian age was the age of the       
suburbs4 ,but few people now live in    
the suburbs of ,london who can afford to
 live anywhere else4 ,either  they move 
right out into the country1 seeking a   
spot on some main  line where the       
greater distance and less-frequent train
 service is  made up for by speedy and  
uninterrupted journeys2 or they come    

into  ,london and occupy houses or flats
 within easy reach of their working     
head-quarters4 ,the suburbs are given   
over to those who cannot afford  either 
of these expedients1 or who1 having been
 brought up there1  are retained by a   
sort of inertia4 ,ultimately1 as the    
demand for  town space becomes          
intensified1 two things will happen4    
,first of all1  the restrictions which  
many cities1 ignoring the freedom of    
,new ,york  and ,chicago1 impose upon   
the erection of excessively high        
buildings1  will go by the board4 ,the  
shutting out of sunlight and fresh air  
will be the subject of compensations to 
be presently explained1 and  thirty1    
forty1 fifty or a hundred-storey houses1
 and houses which  perhaps burrow to    
some distance underground1 will1 by     
virtue of the  same compensations1 house
 a vast1 concentrated population        
impatient  of daily travel4 ,as the     
demand for homes increases1 and even the
  high buildings cannot cope with it1   

the cities will push their way          
outwards1 repopulating the rebuilt      
suburbs4 ,this kind of thing will  have 
a tendency to correct itself4 ,rents    
will be high in proportion to  position 
near the centre4 ,but a limit of        
toleration will be reached1  and as     
certain improvements will have been     
effected in transport1  there will      
ultimately be a reaction1 and people    
will again go right  out to the country1
 as long as there is any country left4  
,before discussing these improvements1  
however1 it will be convenient  to      
examine the conveniences1 social and    
sanitary1 of the homes of  the new age4 
,the greatest convenience of all1 no    
doubt1 will be the  modification and    
partial elimination of the domestic     
servant4 ,there  is every reason to     
believe that the great difficulties of  
the servant  question as at present     
experienced will solve themselves1      
forming in  part an instance of the     
moral changes1 accompanying material    

invention  but only partly resulting    
from it1 which the new age is certain   
to experience4 ,it is usual to lay the  
blame of the unsatisfactory  character  
and atrocious inefficiency of the       
domestic servants of  our own day on the
 institution of free education4 ,they   
are much more  due to the absence of any
 education worthy of the name1 and to   
the  imperfect civilisation of modern   
houses4 ,thirty-five years or so are    
but an instant in the life of an        
institution so overwhelmingly more      
important in its possibilities than any 
other subject of legislation  as        
,state-compelled education of the       
people4 ,no one appears to have         
recognised that character-making1 which 
,herbert ,spencer called the most       
important object which can engage the   
attention of the legislator1  is the    
only true object of education1 free or  
otherwise4 ,when  politicians have      
talked of the necessity of national     
education1  the argument they have used 

was that ,germans are better chemists   
than we are4 ,when they praised the     
usefulness of modern languages  it was  
in terms of commercial utility4 ,modern 
languages1 in fact  7a recent critic    
remarked71 make a good bagman4 ,it is   
inept to  despair of free education     
because free education has produced no  
very satisfactory results while         
conceived of as a process of shoving    
undesired knowledge into the children of
 the poor4 ,looking1 as everyone  not   
hidebound by pessimism must look1 for a 
great enlightenment of the  law-giving  
class when the system of party politics1
 already beginning  to show signs of    
decay1 has ceased to hold all           
legislation in its  blighting hand1 we  
have every reason to expect that the    
true uses of  education will be         
perceived and attained long before the  
end of the  period contemplated when we 
speak of the new age4 ,and then1 one    
very  great factor in the servant       
question will have been satisfactorily  

solved1 even if other conditions have   
not conducted us nearly all  the way to 
the solution beforehand4    ,for1 while 
making every allowance for the evil     
effects of education1  wrongly conceived
 and improperly administered1 on the    
character  of women destined to become  
servants1 it must be allowed that  much 
of what we call the servant difficulty  
could be cured now1  and will           
unquestionably be cured before long1 by 
inventions capable  of abolishing the   
grievances which lead to it4 ,these     
grievances are  real and remediable4 ,i 
do not refer to the confinement1        
restraint and  gross lack of            
consideration on the part of employers  
which lead young  women of the class    
from which servants are drawn to prefer 
labour in  factories and elsewhere1 in  
conditions far less comfortable1 before 
domestic service2 but to our utter lack 
of ingenuity in removing the            
irksomeness and degradation of much     
domestic labour4 ,some coming           

inventions calculated to improve the lot
 of ,mary ,jane will now be  described4 
,in the first place 7as ,mr ,h4 ,g4     
,wells has pointed out1 without         
apparently being aware that buildings   
already exist in which some of  his     
ideas have been anticipated71 modern    
rooms1 equally with those of  all time1 
seem to have been constructed so as to  
make it as difficult  as possible to    
keep them clean4 ,square corners and    
rectangular  junctions of wall and      
floor1 wall and ceiling1 will certainly 
before  long be replaced everywhere by  
curves4 ,but the work of house cleaning 
will be rendered easy and unlaborious by
 another invention1 already  indeed in  
existence on a large scale1 but         
eventually capable of being  rendered   
portable4 ,i mean a contrivance for     
applying a vacuum to any  desired spot4 
,there is a very ingenious but rather   
noisy engine already  in use for pumping
 the dust out of carpets1 curtains and  
furniture4 ,in  the houses of the future

 handy contrivances of various shapes1  
all  independent of any engine1 will be 
found1 furnished with elastic  nozzles  
on the outside and with some sort of    
appliance capable of  instantly         
exhausting the air within4 ,such a      
utensil wheeled over the  floor will    
remove instantly every particle of dust 
from the surface  and below the surface 
of the carpet1 at the same time picking 
up  any such dbris as scraps of paper1  
pins1 and other decidua of the  previous
 day4 ,a similar instrument1 differently
 shaped1 will clean the  curtains1      
supposing curtains to be still in use at
 the time1 and will  dust the chairs and
 tables--though there will not be       
anything like  so much dust as there is 
now1 nearly all kinds of combustion     
being  abolished4 ,the kitchen fire will
 of course be an electric furnace3  o'  
my word we'll not carry coals4 ,lighting
 will all be electric1  and no doubt    
wireless4 ,the abolition of horse       
traffic in cities1 and  the use of the  

vacuum apparatus which will be          
continuously at work  in all streets1   
keeping them dry and free from mud1 will
 practically  remove the necessity for  
boot brushing1 even supposing that we   
shall  still wear boots3 every man and  
woman in dressing will pass a vacuum    
instrument over his and her clothes and 
get rid of even the little dust         
existing--for we shall be more and more 
intolerant of dirt in any form1  having 
by that time fully realised how         
dangerous dirt is4 ,the new age  will be
 a clean age4 ,a lady of the year #bjjj 
who could be miraculously  transported  
back to ,london at the present moment   
would probably faint  7they will not    
have ceased fainting7 at the intolerable
 disgustingness  of what is1 ,i suppose1
 now one of the cleanest cities in the  
world1  even if the cruelty of employing
 horses for traction1 and the frightful 
recklessness of allowing them to soil   
the streets in which people walk1  did  
not overpower her susceptibilities in   

another way4    ,cooking will perhaps   
not be done at all on any large scale at
  home1 in flat-homes at all events2 and
 in any case1 for reasons  which will   
hereafter become apparent1 cooking will 
be a much less  disgusting process than 
it is to-day4 ,in no case will the      
domestic  servant of a hundred years    
hence be called upon to stand over a    
roaring fire1 laid by herself1 and to be
 cleaned up by herself  when done with1 
in order to cook the family dinner4     
,every measure  of heat--controllable in
 gradations of ten degrees or so--will  
be  furnished in electrically-fitted    
receptacles1 with or without water      
jackets or steam jackets3 and           
unquestionably all cooking will be done 
in hermetically-closed vessels4 ,we     
shall not much longer do most of our    
cooking by such a wasteful and          
unwholesome method as boiling1 whereby  
the important soluble salts of nearly   
all food are callously thrown  away4    
,as1 for reasons to be developed        

hereafter1 it is quite certain  that    
animal food will have been wholly       
abandoned before the end of this        
century1 the dbris of the kitchen will  
be much more manageable than  at        
present1 and the kitchen sink will cease
 to be1 during a great  part of the day1
 a place of unapproachable              
loathsomeness4 ,on the  other hand1 its 
conveniences will have been greatly     
increased4 ,it is  difficult to         
understand how the old-world fashion of 
7for instance7  washing up plates and   
dishes can have endured so long4 ,of    
course1  in the new age1 these utensils 
will be simply dropped one by one into  
an automatic receptacle2 swilled clean  
by water delivered with force  and      
charged with nascent oxygen2 dried by   
electric heat2 and polished  by electric
 force2 being finally oxygen-bathed as a
 superfluous act  of sanitary           
cleanliness before being sent to table  
again4 ,and all  that has come off the  
plates will drop through the scullery   

floor  into the destructor beneath to be
 oxygenated and made away with4    ,here
 we have most of the distasteful        
elements of domestic service got  rid   
of4 ,naturally lifts of various kinds1  
driven by the same force  7whatever it  
is7 which lights and warms the house1   
will be everywhere  in evidence4 ,the   
plan of attaining the upper part of a   
small house by  climbing1 on every      
occasion1 a sort of wooden hill1 covered
 with carpet  of questionable           
cleanliness1 will of course have been   
abandoned3 it  is doubtful whether      
staircases will be built at all after   
the next two  or three decades4 ,and it 
is likely that the more refined         
sentiment of  the new age will recoil   
before the spectacle of menial service  
at the  table4 ,not because they will   
despise1 but because they will respect1 
their domestic assistants1 hostesses    
will dislike to have their guests       
waited upon in a servile manner during  
meals by plush-breeched flunkeys  of the

 male1 or neat-handed ,phyllises of the 
female1 sex4 ,well-arranged  houses will
 have the kitchen on a level with the   
dining-room1 and  the dividing wall will
 be so contrived that a table1 ready    
laid at  each course1 can be made to    
slide through it into the presence of   
the  seated guests4 ,an immense amount  
of running to and fro between kitchen   
and dining-room1 and of lifting food and
 table-ware into and out of  elevators1 
will thus be obviated1 to the vast      
gastronomic improvement  of the meal and
 the salvation of servants' time4       
,naturally the bedrooms of the new age  
will have many amenities lacking  to our
 own4 ,it is not too much to anticipate 
that we shall have learned  enough of   
plumbing to be able to connect baths1   
wash-basins and other  necessary        
fittings with the drains without        
poisoning ourselves1 and  the           
inconvenient modern wash-stand with its 
unreticent adjuncts will  decently      
disappear4 ,it cannot be very           

long--probably it will only be  a few   
years--before some kind of reasonable   
control is exercised over  the technical
 education of plumbers4 #a    ,thus the 
bedroom of the new age will be a much   
more convenient  and satisfactory       
apartment than the one we slept in last 
night1  and another irksome and         
unelevating part of the domestic work of
 our  servants will be eliminated4 ,but 
the sleeping-apartments1 and indeed  all
 apartments in city homes1 will contain 
yet another very valuable  and necessary
 article of furniture--the oxygenator4  
,nearly all the  unhealthiness and the  
pinched1 weary greyness of town-dwellers
 to-day  could be cured by fresh air4   
,everyone is familiar with the          
improvement  which can be effected in   
the health and appearance of a city     
family  by even a short visit to the    
seaside or the country--an improvement  
which it happens to be fashionable just 
now to attribute1 in the  former case1  
to the presence of ozone in the sea air4

 ,the fact that  holiday-makers are able
 to endure the smell of slowly-decaying 
seaweed  with a dash of putrescent fish 
about it1 which is called sea-air1      
without injury1 and even to pick up     
health in the presence of it1  is more  
due to the absence of carbon dioxide and
 other deleterious  gases of the towns  
than to anything else4 ,the beneficent  
effects of  country air are practically 
all due to the power possessed by green 
vegetation of superoxygenating the      
surrounding air4 ,the atmosphere  of    
cities1 or at all events of city homes1 
will presently be freed  from the       
products of combustion and respiration1 
and endowed with  a slightly-increased  
proportion of oxygen1 by artificial     
means4 ,and  especially in bedrooms1    
rendered to-day stuffy and unhealthy by 
the  idiotic fear of night air which an 
effete tradition has handed down  to us1
 will this reform be in evidence4       
,prudent people to-day insist  on large 
bedroom windows--preferably of the      

,french-door pattern--and  keep them    
wide open all night4 ,but this is       
attended by inconveniences  in cold and 
wet weather2 and while our grandchildren
 will still keep  their windows open all
 night in all weathers1 they will not be
 content  with this alone4 ,there will  
be a chemical apparatus hidden away in  
some  corner1 or built into the wall1   
which will absorb carbon dioxide and at 
the same time slowly give off a certain 
amount of oxygen--just enough  to raise 
the oxygenation of the air to the       
standard of the best country  places4   
,and similar appliances will be at work 
in the streets of our  cities1 so that  
town air will be just as wholesome1 just
 as tonic and  invigorating1 as country 
air4 ,if the theory that the presence of
 ozone  7that is1 allotropic oxygen7 in 
the sea air is beneficent stand the     
test of time1 no doubt ozonators will   
form part of these appliances3  but in  
any case1 as the high buildings of the  
new age will keep out the  sunlight1    

electric light1 carrying all the        
ray-activity of sunlight1  and just as  
capable of fostering life and           
vegetation1 will serve the  streets4    
,thus1 so far as hygiene goes1 town life
 will be on a par with  country life3   
but many people will prefer the country1
 and means will  have to be provided to 
render homes in the country compatible  
with  work in the cities4 ,this brings  
us to the question of transport4    ,i  
do not think that people will1 within   
the next hundred years at all  events1  
travel to and from work in              
flying-machines4 ,but no doubt the      
system of railway transport will be     
revolutionised4 ,what makes suburban    
travel so slow is1 not so much lack of  
speed on the part of the trains1  as the
 necessity for frequent stoppage4 ,you  
cannot satisfactorily run a  train at   
sixty miles an hour and stop it every   
minute or so3 otherwise  sixty miles an 
hour would be quite fast enough1 for    
some decades at  least1 to satisfy all  

requirements of suburban traffic1 though
 it  would be1 and indeed is1           
ridiculously inadequate for             
long-distance  travelling4 ,the expense 
of increased permanent-way hampers      
railway  management1 and as there is no 
possibility of getting more land to     
increase the number of available tracks1
 some method will have to  be devised   
for running one train over the top of   
another--perhaps  to the height of      
several storeys1 not necessarily        
provided with  supporting rails3 for we 
may very conceivably have discovered    
means  by which vehicles can be         
propelled above the ground in some kind 
of  guide-ways1 doing away with the     
great loss of power caused by wheel     
friction2 that is to say1 the guides    
will direct1 but not support1  the      
carriages4 ,the clumsy device of        
locomotive engines will have  been      
dispensed with4 ,whatever power is      
employed to drive the trains  of the    
next century will certainly be conveyed 

to them from central  power-houses4     
,but1 as the reader has been already    
reminded1 it is the stoppages  which are
 so wasteful of time on a suburban      
railway3 and they are  also wasteful of 
force4 ,now in all respects the new age 
will be  economical4 ,one thing that    
will have to be perfected is the art of 
getting up speed4 ,look1 as you go home 
to-night1 at the way your train  gathers
 speed on leaving a station4 ,observe   
what a long time it is  before it can   
attain its full velocity4 ,a large part 
of the total  time you require in order 
to reach the suburbs is consumed in this
  manner4 ,a hundred years hence trains 
will almost jump to full speed1         
somewhat as a motor-car jumps to-day4   
,in collecting passengers at  suburban  
stations1 the train1 a hundred years    
hence1 will perhaps not  stop at all4   
,it will only slacken speed a little2   
but the platform  will begin to move as 
the train approaches1 and will run along
 beside  it1 at the same speed as the   

train itself1 so that passengers can get
  in and out as if the train were       
standing still4 ,when all are aboard1   
the doors will be closed all together by
 the guard1 and the platform  will      
reverse its motion1 and return to its   
original position ready  for the next   
train4    ,with trains travelling at    
quite #bjj miles an hour--and certainly 
nothing less will satisfy the remoter   
suburbanites of next  century--frightful
 accidents would occur if precautions   
were not  taken4 ,the moment two trains 
are in the same section of line they    
will  be automatically cut off from the 
source of power1 and their brakes  will 
at the same time bring them to a        
standstill4 ,a passenger who put  his   
head out of the window of a train       
travelling at this speed would be       
blinded and suffocated2 so the windows  
will be glazed1 the oxygenators  and    
carbon-dioxide absorbers in each        
carriage keeping the air sweet1  and    
other suitable appliances adjusting its 

temperature4 ,there will be  no such    
thing as level crossings2 wherever the  
road crosses the line  there will be    
bridges1 provided with an endless moving
 track 7like  the automatic staircase at
 the ,crystal ,palace71 to carry        
passengers  and vehicles across4 ,of    
course horses will long since have      
vanished  from the land1 except as      
instruments of the pleasure of a few    
cranks  who affect the manners of that  
effete period1 the year #aijj4    ,and  
the omnipresence of high-speed vehicles 
will in itself have  eliminated much    
danger of accident4 ,it is not to be    
supposed that  the unresting march of   
mechanical improvement will have failed 
to  have its effect on the people4 ,man 
himself will have progressed4 ,he  will 
be cleverer in avoiding accidents4      
,cities will be provided  with moving   
street-ways1 always in action at two or 
more speeds2  and we shall have learned 
to hop on and off the lowest speed from 
the  stationary pavement1 and from the  

lower speeds to the higher1 without     
danger4 ,when streets cross1 one rolling
 roadway will rise in a curve  over the 
other4 ,there will be no vehicular      
traffic at all in cities  of any size2  
all the transportation will be done by  
the roads' own  motion4 ,in smaller     
towns1 and for getting from one town to 
another1  automatic motor-cars will     
exist1 coin-worked4 ,a man who wishes to
  travel will step into a motor-car1    
drop into a slot-machine the coin  which
 represents the hire of the car for the 
distance he wants to  travel1 and assume
 control4 ,here again the progress of   
man will come  into play4 ,everyone will
 know how to drive a motor-car safely4  
,if  you doubt it1 consider for a moment
 the position of a man of #ahjj         
suddenly transported into a street of   
modern ,london4 ,he would never  be able
 to cross it2 the rush of omnibuses1    
motors and bicycles  would confuse and  
frighten him4 ,imagine the same man     
trying to use  the underground railways 

of to-day1 or to get up to town from a  
busy  suburb in the morning4 ,he would  
either be killed out of hand or left    
behind altogether from sheer inability  
to enter the train4    ,we may safely   
suppose that the ocean ships of a       
hundred years hence  will be driven by  
energy of some kind transmitted from the
 shores on  either side4 ,it is         
absolutely unquestionable that no marine
 engine in  the least resembling what we
 know to-day can meet the requirements  
of the new age4 ,the expense of driving 
a steamship increases in  such a ratio  
to its size and speed that the economic 
limits of steam  propulsion are         
foreseen4 ,probably the ships of ,a4,d4 
#bjjj will differ  entirely in          
appearance from those we know4 ,just as 
road friction  is the bugbear of the    
railway engineer1 so water-resistance is
 the  bugbear of the marine engineer4   
,the ships of a hundred years hence     
will not lie in the water4 ,they will   
tower above the surface1 merely         

skimming it with their keels1 and the   
only engines they will carry  will be   
those which receive and utilise the     
energy transmitted to  them from the    
power-houses ashore--perhaps worked by  
the force of  the very tides of the     
conquered ocean itself4    ,the housing 
problem is so intimately and visibly    
connected in our  minds with the growth 
of population that the more vital       
entanglement  of the latter with the    
food question is hardly perceptible     
except  to economic experts4 ,the       
ordinary newspaper reader is not in a   
position to trace the intimate          
significance of prices2 indeed1 he      
often regards it as rather a good thing 
that wheat should fetch a  good price   
per quarter1 forgetting that low prices 
for commodities  mean increased         
purchasing power for money1 and a better
 standard of  life for the people4 ,when
 such elementary implications as this   
are  overlooked1 it is hardly remarkable
 that the more obscure connection  of   

population with prices is never thought 
of4 ,yet it is obvious that  unless the 
sources of supply increase more rapidly 
than the consuming  population1 prices  
must rise--in other words1 the          
purchasing power of  money must         
diminish4 ,wages1 to some extent1 will  
no doubt rise also1  but as competition 
seriously affects the markets for       
manufactured goods  and machinery1 and  
the increase of population not only     
tends to raise  prices of commodities1  
but also restricts the rise of wages1   
relief  will have to be found in        
economies of various sorts4 ,the        
standard  of comfort in working families
 must improve considerably2 partly      
because the demand for improvement1     
taking the shape of industrial          
combination and trade-unionism developed
 to a high degree1 will  be more and    
more clamorous2 partly because of public
 feeling4 ,what  is currently called the
 growth of sentimentalism in modern life
 is  really the development of modern   

conscience4 ,no doubt the abolition  of 
judicial torture was at one time        
regarded as a mark of absurd            
sentimentality2 and the opinion has     
already been expressed that a  vast     
amelioration of public morality is in   
store for the new age4 ,a  great element
 in the conflict between comfort on the 
one hand and  competition on the other  
will be economy of means4 ,that is why  
the  new age will1 among other things1  
be an age of economy4    ,in the matter 
of food1 chiefly1 a great saving can be 
effected4 ,nothing  is more painfully   
ludicrous--,i use the incongruous       
collocution  advisedly--than the        
spectacle every winter of money being   
laboriously  accumulated for the        
provision of free meals for the poor1   
and spent1  to a great extent1 so       
wastefully as on meat soups and white   
bread4 ,the  crass ignorance of the     
poor1 who will not touch wholemeal      
bread1  and indeed regard the offer of  
it as something in the nature of  an    

insult2 and who cannot be induced to    
believe that meat is one  of the least  
satisfactory and most expensive forms of
 nourishment1  is of course responsible 
in great part for this error4 ,if we    
would  get our nitrogen from pulses1    
nuts1 and use vegetable fats derived    
from nuts1 and bread made from entire   
wheat-kernels finely ground  7instead of
 being only half ground as in most brown
 breads7 #b  our free dinner charities  
would be able to feed at least twice  or
 three times as many people for every   
pound collected as they do  at present4 
,but the proposal would probably excite 
an outcry and we  should hear that the  
poor were being treated as animals and  
that we  fain would fill their bellies  
with the husks that the swine do eat4   
,but  all kinds of influences will tend 
to eliminate flesh from the dietary  of 
the new age4 ,growing sentimentalism1   
already in arms against  the use of     
animals for highly necessary scientific 
investigations1  will1 as it develops1  

be revolted by the idea of killing for  
food2  and the refinement of the future 
will come to regard the eating of dead  
bodies as very little better than       
cannibalism4 ,moreover1 the constantly  
increasing demand of the new age upon   
bodily and nervous energies will  call  
for nourishment suited to their supply4 
,this1 and the wastefulness  of         
second-hand food1 will banish all flesh 
from the bill of fare4 ,fish  will be   
eaten longer than meat4 ,but more than  
anything else1 the need  for economy    
will reform our dinner-tables1 and      
eventually all food  will have to be    
obtained directly from the soil1 if we  
are to have  food enough to nourish our 
overgrown population at all4 ,we shall  
not  be able to afford to waste the     
ground on pasturage4 ,we must use it  to
 produce cereals1 nuts and fruits1 which
 are not only a much more  remunerative 
crop1 but will also use up in their     
assimilation far  less nervous and      
peptic energy--energy which we shall    

need to make  the most of4 ,the cereal  
foods--products of wheat1 barley1 maize1
 and  perhaps still 7to a certain       
extent7 oats--which will form the staple
  of our diet1 will be partially cooked 
at the granaries by dry heat2  they will
 need very little treatment at home4    
,vegetables1 cooked1  not in the        
wasteful manner now in vogue1 but by    
conservative methods  which will        
preserve their valuable saline          
constituents1 will have to  be prepared 
in our own kitchens2 but pulse in       
various forms 7as pease1  lentil flour1 
etc47 will be supplied to us almost     
wholly cooked4 ,a  cheap1 nourishing and
 delicious dietary will thus be made    
available4    ,finally1 the reader will 
not be unprepared for the opinion that  
alcohol1 as a beverage1 must inevitably 
disappear4 ,not only because the  price 
of intoxicants is an unproductive       
expenditure 7and we shall have  to be   
more and more thrifty as time goes on7  
but because the nerves of  the new age  

would never stand them1 must all        
alcoholic beverages be  regarded as     
destined to obsolescence3 and the       
legislative aspect of  this question    
must presently be touched upon4 ,already
 a considerable  part of the people1 in 
no way influenced by the illogical idea 
that  the abuse of a commodity by one   
class calls for the abstention from  it 
of another1 refrains from alcohol simply
 because its use inflicts  too great a  
strain on the system4 ,a good many      
people even now find it  necessary to   
abstain from tea or from coffee for     
precisely similar  reasons2 while the   
highly-organised nervous systems of     
others find  in the latter a stimulant  
capable of all the advantages of alcohol
  7and they are many7 and not without   
some of its penalties4 ,i think  it     
quite likely that when alcohol is gone1 
the nerves of the future  may find it   
necessary to place the sale of tea and  
of coffee under  restrictions similar to
 those at present inflicted upon the    

trade  in alcohol3 and it is quite      
certain that morphia1 cocaine1 chloral1 
perhaps ether1 and similar products1    
will have to be very jealously          
safeguarded within the next few years4  
,differing from many writers1 ,i do not 
regard this development of  the nervous 
system as a mark of degeneration4 ,on   
the contrary1 it  is a part of the great
 and rapid adaptation which is bound to 
take  place in the constitution of man  
himself #c to the rapidly-changing      
conditions of his environment1 his life1
 and the duties he will  have to fulfil4
 ,to overlook the certainty of such     
adaptations is to  be blind to all      
history1 and especially to all recent   
history4 ,the  men and women of the new 
age will differ from ourselves in much  
the  same sort of way as we differ from 
our great-grandfathers4 ,they will      
differ more only because the progress of
 the century which we have  lately begun
 will be so much more rapid and various 
than those of the  century              

before--itself the period of enormously 
the greatest changes  since the world   
began to be civilised4                  
,,chapter ,,iii    ,,the ,,man ,,of     
,,business      ,whatever changes may   
take place in the organisation of       
society during  the present century1 we 
may regard it as certain that the folk  
who          ,rise up to buy and sell   
again      will be always with us4 ,the 
man of business will possess many       
conveniences denied to the city man of  
to-day4 ,it is1 for instance1  to be    
supposed that the inordinate defects of 
even the best  telephone systems will be
 eliminated4 ,when wireless             
communication  of ideas has been        
perfected1 of course the telephone      
exchange  will disappear4 ,differential 
tuning--the process by which any        
wireless telephone will be able to be   
brought1 as transmitter1 into           
correspondence with any other wireless  
telephone1 as receiver--will  enable    
every merchant to call up every other   

merchant4 ,instead of1  as at present1  
looking up his associate's number in the
 directory1  and getting connected by   
the clumsy junction of wires at an      
exchange  office1 the merchant will look
 up the tuning-formula1 adjust his  own 
telephone to it1 and ring a bell1 or    
otherwise employ means  for attracting  
the attention of the man he wants to    
speak to4 ,as  a great proportion of all
 the business transacted will be done   
by telephones the frequent occurrence of
 disputes as to what has  or has not    
been said in a given conversation will  
have rendered  safeguards necessary4    
,consequently1 every telephone will be  
attached  to an instrument1 developed   
from the phonograph1 which will record  
whatever is said at both ends of the    
line4 ,precautions will have to  be     
devised against eavesdropping4 ,after   
communication is established1  probably 
both parties to a conversation will     
retune their instruments  to a fresh    
pitch1 which1 in cases requiring special

 secrecy1 could  be privately agreed    
upon beforehand4    ,the form which the 
records above suggested will ultimately 
assume  must be a matter of conjecture4 
,it is quite possible that the written  
word may in all departments of life lose
 some of its present vital  importance4 
,we may imagine1 if we choose1 that     
instead of creating  records which can  
be read1 we may find it advisable to    
create records  that can be listened to3
 and some of the apparent inconveniences
 of  this substitution may easily be    
supposed to be dispensed with4 ,the     
handiness of a written memorandum is    
largely a matter of habit4 ,a  practised
 eye can skim a long document1 and      
either through the  use of black-type   
headlines1 or by pure skill1 alight upon
 exactly  the passage required2 and if  
it were necessary1 in order to find  a  
given passage1 to listen to the whole   
document being read over  by the        
recording phonograph1 no doubt much time
 would be lost4 ,we  shall not be so    

extremely intolerant of loss of time1   
perhaps1 in  the new age1 as some people
 imagine3 but in any case1 if the speed 
of the phonograph be imagined as        
adjustable1 it will be perceived  that  
we could then make it gabble parrotwise 
over the inessential1  and let it linger
 with more deliberation over what we    
wanted to  assure ourselves of4 ,we     
could even skip useless portions--one   
can  do this with phonographs already in
 use4 ,probably such aural records  may 
be made capable of acceptance in courts 
of law1 and the maxim  verbum auditum   
manet will take the place of a          
well-known proverb  of our day4 ,very   
likely business letters may some day    
take the form  of conveniently-shaped   
tablets1 made of some plastic material1 
and  capable of being utilised by means 
of a talking machine4    ,or if these   
changes seem too chimerical1 we may     
essay the more  difficult task of       
conceiving a means by which the spoken  
word may be  directly translatable into 

print or typewriting4 ,the waste of time
 and  energy entailed by the present    
plan of dictating what we want to say   
to a stenographer or into a phonograph1 
for subsequent transcription1  renders  
some sort of improvement urgently       
needful2 nor are these wastes  the only 
grievance1 as the introduction of a     
second personality into  the operation  
of recording speech introduces a        
simultaneous possibility  of error1 and 
an outrageous waste of time is caused by
 the necessity  of reading over what one
 has dictated laboriously to a          
stenographer or  into a phonograph1 to  
make sure that it is correctly          
transcribed4 ,it  is obviously a much   
more difficult matter to translate      
speech directly  into printed words than
 to translate it into something which   
may again  produce the sounds of speech4
 ,the first step would be the invention 
of  something which would print a       
phonetic representation of speech--as1  
for instance1 shorthand of the kind     

invented by ,sir ,isaac ,pitman4 ,even  
this requires us to imagine machinery of
 a kind whose very rudiments do  not at 
present exist4 ,indeed1 we can only     
conceive such an instrument  by the use 
of the supposition that some entirely   
new manipulation  of sound-waves will be
 discovered2 and if we conceive that1   
there  is no particular reason why we   
should hesitate before the notion of    
speech directly translated into print   
such as we use in everyday  life4 ,if we
 are going to limit the possibilities of
 the future by  the actual achievements 
of the present1 we shall certainly fall 
short  of any adequate notion of what a 
hundred years' accelerated progress  may
 be capable of3 and ,i do not see       
wherein the direct reproduction         
suggested is any more inconceivable     
than1 for example1 telephony1 or  even  
photography1 must have been to a man of 
a hundred years ago4 ,the  greatest     
danger attending our attempt to         
preconceive the amenities  of the next  

century is that we may limit our        
expectations too narrowly4    ,on this  
ground1 perhaps1 ,i may be thought too  
cautious in assuming  that the present  
form of alphabetical writing and        
printing will  survive at all4 ,but     
there are two things which seem likely  
to give  it permanence4 ,the first1 of  
course1 is literature4 ,if we adopt an  
entirely new form of writing and        
printing for general use1 we must       
either set to work to translate all our 
literature into it1 thereby  probably   
losing some formal beauties which the   
culture of the world  will not consent  
to sacrifice2 or we must make up our    
minds to use  7as the ,japanese do at   
present7 two kinds of writing           
concurrently2  and the difficulty of    
overcoming the vast inertia of the human
 mind  7which alone still suffices to   
exclude from ,english commerce so       
obviously convenient an innovation as   
decimal coinage7 will probably  negative
 this4 ,this inertia is the second      

consideration likely to  give permanence
 to our present form of ,english        
alphabetical writing4    ,however this  
may be1 the convenience of direct       
wireless telephony  will certainly1 when
 supplemented by records of whatever    
kind1 greatly  facilitate commerce4 ,the
 tedious process of writing a letter1   
posting  it1 and awaiting the reply1 at 
present persisted in chiefly because it 
is so necessary to have some sort of    
documentary evidence of what has        
passed1 will be largely dispensed with  
when we can secure an automatic  record 
of what we say4 ,nearly everything will 
be done by word of mouth4    ,the great 
inconvenience1 apart from the absence of
 record1 which  attaches to transactions
 or negotiations by telephone at the    
present  day1 is that a telephonic      
conversation is not nearly so           
satisfactory  as a personal interview   
face to face4 ,gesture1 attitude1 the   
language  of face and eyes1 all do so   
much to elucidate communication in the  

latter way1 that we lose a great deal   
when we meet an associate at  the other 
end of a telephone wire4 ,well1 the     
telephone of the new  age will remove   
this drawback1 or rather it will be     
supplemented by  something which will do
 so4 ,this invention1 not at all        
difficult  to imagine1 ,i will call     
provisionally the teleautoscope4 ,it    
will  no doubt have some name equally   
barbarous4 ,the teleautoscope can be    
explained in a single sentence4 ,it will
 be an instrument for seeing by         
electricity4 ,whatever is before the    
transmitting teleautoscope will be      
visible before the receiving            
teleautoscope wirelessly en rapport with
  the former4 ,thus by telephone1 by    
phonograph1 and by teleautoscope1  a    
wireless conversation will combine all  
the advantages of a personal  interview 
and a written correspondence4    ,no    
doubt the post-office system of this    
country1 despite occasional  lapses1 is 
as nearly perfect as any human          

institution1 in the present  state of   
society1 can be reasonably expected to  
be4 ,but it is equally  certain that in 
so far as postal communication is       
required at all in  the new age it will 
have to be vastly improved both as to   
speed and  precision1 compared with what
 we now1 sometimes rather thanklessly1  
enjoy4 ,for instance1 that impatient age
 will certainly not tolerate the        
inconvenience of having to send out to  
post its letters and parcels1  or the   
tardiness of having these articles      
sorted and passed on for  delivery only 
at intervals of half an hour or so4 ,we 
may take it for  granted that every     
well-equipped business office will be in
 direct  communication1 by means of     
large-calibred pneumatic tubes1 with the
  nearest post-office4 ,and however     
rapidly and however frequently the      
trains or airships of the period may    
travel1 the process of making  up van   
loads of mail matter for despatch to    
remote centres1 and  redistribution     

there1 is far too clumsy for what       
commerce will demand  a hundred years   
hence4 ,no doubt the soil of every      
civilised country  will be permeated by 
vast networks of pneumatic tubes3 and   
all letters  and parcels will be thus   
distributed at a speed hardly credible  
to-day4    ,already every bank of any   
importance probably uses calculating    
machines4 ,it is not likely that the    
fatiguing and uncertain process of      
having arithmetical calculations of any 
sort performed in the brains  of clerks 
will survive the improvements of which  
these machines  are capable4 ,account   
books1 invoices1 and all similar        
documents  will doubtless be written by 
a convenient and compendious form of    
combined calculating machine and        
typewriter1 which we may suppose to be  
called the numeroscriptor4 ,it will1 of 
course1 be capable of writing           
anywhere--on a book or on a loose sheet1
 on a flat surface or on an  irregular  
one4 ,it will make any kind of          

calculation required4 ,even such        
operations as the weighing and          
measurement of goods will all be done by
  automatic machinery1 #d capable of    
recording without any possibility  of   
error the quantity and values of goods  
submitted to its operation4             
,naturally transport will be the subject
 of something like  a renascence4 ,so   
far as inland communication goes1 the   
chief  difficulties to be overcome      
already call loudly for amendment4 ,we  
cannot for more than a decade or so make
 do with the present railway  tracks1   
and either 7as already hinted7 by means 
of some invention  to enable trains to  
run one above another1 or by some       
entirely new  carrying device such as ,i
 will now try to suggest1 the new age   
will  certainly supersede or supplement 
the transport of to-day4    ,the device 
most likely to be adopted1 in the near  
future at all  events1 is something in  
the nature of elevated trottoirs        
roulants  for goods4 ,if we can conceive

 all the cities of a country to be      
linked-up by a system of great overways1
 we have at all events a  feasible      
solution of the difficulty4 ,there could
 be a double row of  tall1 massive      
pillars1 between which could run a wide 
track1 always in  motion at considerable
 speed4 ,it need not be a lightning     
speed4 ,most  of the tardiness of       
railway transportation does not1 in this
 country  at all events1 arise from     
slowness of trains1 but from congestion 
at  goods stations1 and this in turn is 
due1 partly to insufficiency of  rolling
 stock1 but much more to insufficiency  
of permanent way4 ,the  latter evil is  
very difficult to cope with4 ,but the   
system of moving  ways1 providing a     
rolling stock equal in length to the    
line itself1  will be a great saving4   
,returning upon itself the endless track
 will  continuously transport           
merchandise in both directions4         
,elevators1  suitably placed1 will give 
access to it wherever needed4 ,probably 

the  motive power will be electrical3   
and we may confidently anticipate       
entirely new sources of electricity4 ,it
 is obviously clumsy to  create power in
 the first instance1 convert power into 
electricity  7,i use popular language71 
and then convert electricity back again 
into  power4 ,much more hopeful than any
 idea of developing that method would   
be the conception of new ways of        
creating and applying motive-power      
directly4 ,but1 almost certainly1       
electricity1 obtained in some new  way1 
will do the work of the world for many  
generations yet--until1  in fact1 we    
devise or discover something more       
convenient4    ,it will have been       
perceived that nearly every improvement 
and  innovation above sketched out      
involves1 and will be indeed designed   
to effect1 great saving of labour4 ,with
 such economies1 and an  increased      
population1 there is evidently going to 
be a difficulty  about employment4      
,moreover1 the great facilities enjoyed 

by commerce will tend to make  commerce 
extremely powerful4 ,already great      
organisers of business begin  to evade  
competition by combining in vast trusts1
 whose tendency  is to make the rich    
richer and the poor poorer4 ,there is a 
further  cause for the aggrandisement of
 the large trader and manufacturer at   
the expense of the petty retail dealer4 
,more and more every year the           
unprogressive methods of small          
shopkeepers foster the success of large 
multiple retailers4 ,but it is likely   
that retail businesses1 whether  great  
or small1 will ultimately tend to be    
eliminated4 ,manufacturers  and trust   
companies will supply the public        
directly4 ,what1 then1 will  be the     
solution of the great social            
difficulties about to be created8       
,the answer is1 that these difficulties1
 and especially the developments  above 
confidently predicted for a future      
comparatively near1 are  probably       
transient in their nature4 ,it is not   

yet the time to discuss  political      
questions3 but the problem here directly
 raised demands a  few words of         
reassurance from the professed optimist4
    ,there can be no doubt of the great 
social and political dangers  involved  
in so enormous an aggrandisement of the 
commercial and  manufacturing class as  
we shall most of us live to witness4    
,what is  called the problem of the     
unemployed grows every year more        
difficult  and less obviously hopeful4  
,moreover1 the concentration of great   
wealth in a few hands is in itself a    
political danger1 even apart  from the  
fact that it implies widespread         
impoverishment4 ,there are  dangers of  
corrupt legislation1 for instance1 and  
other dangers too4    ,but there will be
 another great force at work in which   
may be foreseen  the solution of many   
difficulties beside this4 ,when public  
education  becomes rationalised2 when it
 is employed chiefly as a means of      
character-making2 when the universal    

education of mankind has the  effect of 
turning out men and women capable of    
thinking1 and not  merely of            
remembering1 the teeming population of  
the working class will  begin to        
exercise an intelligent influence on the
 legislature--which  at present it      
certainly cannot be said to do4 ,and one
 thing which  the intelligently-elected 
,parliaments of the new age will        
assuredly  discover is this principle3  
that it is not good for the ,state that 
any one man1 or any one associated body 
of men1 should possess an  inordinate   
amount of wealth4 #e    ,once this      
principle is discovered and acted upon2 
once it is illegal  for any person or   
corporation to be seised of more than a 
certain fixed  capital2 the dangers of  
inconvenient aggrandisement will vanish4
 ,nor  is this principle in any way     
unprogressive or injurious to the       
commonwealth4 ,it is1 in fact1 not even 
injurious to the individuals  affected4 
,no reasonably-enlightened being can    

pretend that a sensible  hardship would 
be inflicted on millionaires by being   
forbidden to  pile ,pelion upon ,ossa in
 their present insane manner4 ,a very   
rich man1  compelled to desist from the 
accumulation of wealth1 and consequently
  driven to the task of finding out how 
to enjoy it intelligently1 would  be    
almost infinitely better off for this   
constraint4 ,the effect of the          
ordinance for the limitation of wealth  
will be to remove all temptation  to    
concentrate manufactures in a few hands4
 ,it will open the doors  shut by trust 
companies on competition4 ,it will      
multiply factories of  moderate and     
convenient size3 and one other effect of
 it will be to  improve many            
manufacturing processes in themselves4  
,there are a great  many things which   
can be cheaply turned out in uniform    
batches1 every  article exactly the     
counterpart of every other1 hideous in  
economical  uniformity1 because they all
 emanate from one or two great          

factories1  which1 if the manufacture of
 them were distributed over a number of 
small factories1 would1 from this       
circumstance alone1 and from the  stress
 of wholesome competition1 be greatly   
improved4 ,probably many  industries1   
desirable in themselves1 but driven out 
of successful  being by our present     
system of concentrated manufacturing1   
would  revive4 ,crafts of what we call  
regretfully the good old kinds would    
spring up1 rejuvenated3 cheap uniformity
 would cease to be the  principal ideal 
of manufacture4 ,the people would be    
able to afford  agreeable furniture1    
utensils1 decorations1 and household    
goods of  all kinds1 where they now have
 to put up with horrible but cheap      
makeshifts4 ,for one great advantage of 
the ordinance just predicted  must not  
be lost sight of4 ,when you restrain the
 rich from becoming  inordinately       
richer1 you concurrently save the poor  
from being made  proportionately poorer4
 ,this ideal1 it should be remarked1 is 

in no  sense socialistic4 ,it is1 on the
 contrary1 the natural development  of  
individualism4    ,hardly less certain  
is it that before the beginning of the  
twenty-first  century all manufactures  
and all commerce will be co-operative1  
the  workers in every industry being    
paid1 not by fixed wages1 but by a      
share in the produce of their labour4   
,instead of the profit of all  trade and
 manufacture being secured to the       
managers and owners of  lands1          
machinery1 transport and other          
commercial utilities2 while  labour1 the
 equally necessary and indeed the       
preponderant element  of production1 is 
reckoned as a mere element of cost1 in  
the form  of wages2 the profit will be  
shared all round4 ,the more prosperous  
the enterprise1 the more money the      
workers will receive4 ,no man  will be  
able to grow rich by sweating his       
workmen4 ,neither will  the present     
degrading temptation for every workman  
to perform his  task as perfunctorily   

and as lazily as he can1 so long as he  
does  not get dismissed from work       
altogether1 survive this reform4 ,on the
  contrary1 it will be directly worth   
every man's while to do his work  as    
well as he possibly can4 ,the dignity of
 labour--a phrase now justly            
mocked--will become an elevating and    
delightful practicality4 ,a great  many 
articles of everyday use will be better 
made than it is possible  to get them   
made to-day4 ,the spectacle of the      
producers of wealth  herding in squalid 
cabins1 clothed in the rags of cast-off 
clothing1  eating garbage1 enjoying     
nothing but intoxication1 will give way 
to  a more wholesome and natural state  
of affairs4 ,nor will the owners of     
machinery1 of factories and the like    
long oppose this development4 ,what  are
 called labour-troubles will cease to   
exist when the interest of  employer and
 employed is identical4 ,the problem of 
the unemployed will  solve itself4      
,leisure1 and an opportunity to employ  

leisure wisely1  will have been bestowed
 upon the poor as well as we have seen  
that  it will be bestowed upon the rich4
 ,a man will have no need to spend      
practically all the unfatigued hours of 
every day at the bench1 the  loom1 or   
the lathe4 ,he will want recreation4    
,while one batch of men  is seeking this
 there will be an opportunity for other 
batches to  work4 ,and work itself1 once
 it is work for an intelligent          
objective1  once it is work that there  
is a comprehensible reason for trying to
  execute as well as it can possibly be 
executed1 will lose much of  its        
irksomeness--to the vast improvement    
alike of the product and  the producer4 
,,chapter ,,iv    ,,the ,,cult ,,of     
,,pleasure      ,certain predictions in 
the foregoing chapter will have         
suggested to  all who accept them that  
the cultivation of pleasure must occupy 
a  large part of the energy of the new  
age4 ,from the moment when men1         
sufficiently astute and purposeful to   

accumulate enormous fortunes  if they   
were permitted to do so1 are required by
 law to desist from  useless and        
injurious money-getting1 a vast amount  
of ingenuity will  be diverted to the   
development of the useless4 ,the skill  
expended upon  money-making--and let it 
be admitted frankly that1 however       
unscrupulous  one may be1 it is not easy
 to become a millionaire--will be turned
 to  the task1 almost equally difficult1
 of spending it satisfactorily4 ,we  may
 consider it as practically certain that
 the pleasures of the  new age will be  
largely intellectual in their nature4   
,the stupidity  of merely sensual       
pleasures will revolt the intelligence  
of the  future4 ,athletic sports of some
 kind1 facilitated by certain inventions
  which can easily be foreseen1 will no 
doubt be a source of much  enjoyment1   
though the growing gentleness of mankind
 will abolish1 as  barbarous1 games     
which take the form of modified assault1
 as football1  boxing1 wrestling1       

fencing and the like4 ,we shall         
certainly acquire a  great distaste for 
fighting in any form when growing       
humanitarianism  shall have put an end  
to war--a development which may         
confidently be  predicted for the       
present century4 ,similarly--,am ,i     
,god1 to kill and  to make alive8--we   
shall cease to take life for our        
amusement2 as1  for sentimental and     
other reasons1 it has been shown that we
 shall  cease to kill for food4    ,what
 then will be our games8 ,one of the    
most likely instruments  of sport will  
no doubt be the small flying-machine4   
,it is not in  the least probable1 so   
far as can at present be foreseen1 that 
purely arial and self-directed vehicles 
for purposes of travel  or              
transportation will be a feature of the 
new civilisation4 ,the  dangers and     
inconvenience of large arostats are less
 accidents of  imperfect invention than 
inherent difficulties of the subject4   
,it is  very probable that some means of

 propelling self-supported vehicles     
between guideways may be discovered4    
,but1 as it is not at all likely  that  
any means of suspending the effect of   
air-resistance can ever be  devised1 a  
flying-machine must always be slow and  
cumbersome4 ,travel  and transportation1
 to be attractive in the new age1 must  
be rapid in  the extreme4 ,ships no     
doubt will skim the surface of the sea  
instead  of resting upon it4 ,but       
air-ships are not very likely to be     
anything  but a sort of vast toy1       
within1 at all events1 the next hundred 
years4    ,but1 as a means of amusement1
 the idea of arial travel has great     
promise4 ,small one-man flying-machines1
 or the arial counterpart  of tandem    
bicycles1 will no doubt be common       
enough4 ,we shall fly for  pleasure2 and
 just as thousands of working men and   
women now take a  ,saturday-afternoon   
spin on a bicycle1 so they will go for a
 sky-trip1  and visit interesting       
mountain-tops for 7non-alcoholic7       

picnics4 ,the  bicycle or the           
motor-cycle will perhaps be the point of
 development4 ,it  is quite certain that
 within the next ten or fifteen years   
some means  will have been discovered by
 which we can ride on a single wheel4   
,the  saving of weight thus effected    
will go a long way towards surmounting  
the flight problem4 ,then1 when         
motor-unicycles are presently propelled 
by force transmitted 7in the same way as
 ,marconi's telegrams7 from a  fixed    
power-house1 the difficulty of flight   
will be within sight of  an easy        
solution4 ,any competent mechanician of 
the present day could  design a         
flying-machine if the mere weight of the
 motive appliance  could be overcome4   
,when the motor is fixed on terra firma1
 and the  vehicle only needs to carry a 
device for utilising the theric waves   
which the source of power wirelessly    
transmits1 flight will be at  least as  
simple a matter as wireless telegraphy  
is to-day4    ,when it is possible to   

cross the ,atlantic in a day by means of
  surface-riding ships1 propelled1 like 
the flying-machines1 by  theric force1  
the field of amusement will be vastly   
increased1  and although 7as ,i shall   
show7 it will no longer be necessary to 
travel in order to see the sights of any
 part of the world1 the  pleasure of    
being present at the actual events of   
life in different  countries will       
probably never pall4 ,so long as any    
parts of the world  remain comparatively
 unfamiliar1 young men and maidens will 
love  travel4 ,when it is possible1     
wrapped in warm woollens and provided   
with portable heating-appliances1 to pay
 a short visit to the ,arctic  circle   
and enjoy the matchless spectacle of the
 ,aurora ,borealis amid  the            
awe-compelling obscurities of the ,polar
 night3 when1 with even  less           
inconvenience1 we can take a trip to the
 tropics and witness1  here the         
unchangeable processes of ,nature's     
luxuriance1 there the  perhaps immutable

 conservatism of the ,east1 the new     
leisure of the  coming time will have   
great stores of recreation for those    
happy  enough to live in the dawning    
twenty-first century4    ,the more      
distinctively intellectual pleasures of 
the new age will  be much subserved by  
one class of invention1 of which the    
rudiments  already exist4 ,by means of  
the phonograph we are able1 not very    
perfectly1 to reproduce as often as we  
desire sounds created in  favourable    
circumstances4 ,by various kinds of     
kinetoscope we can  reproduce a         
rudimentary sort of picture of an event 
which has taken  place in a good light4 
,but when the phonograph has been       
developed1 when  moving pictures have   
been perfected1 what a vast implement of
 amusement  may be foreseen6 ,each of   
these inventions is comparatively new4  
,if  we imagine the discovery of means1 
developed from the phonograph1  by which
 any sounds which have once existed in  
the presence of a  recording machine can

 be reproduced at will1 not in a        
makeshift sort  of way1 but without any 
loss of timbre and quality1 with perfect
  articulation where articulation is    
necessary1 with exactly correct         
time-regulation automatically determined
 by the first enunciation1 and  all this
 cheaply and compendiously1 what vast   
resources of cultured  enjoyment are    
offered to the lover of music6 ,how many
 people1 denied  the pleasure of        
learning to understand good music by the
 difficulties  and exertion attendant   
upon our infrequent and expensive       
concerts1  will become true lovers and  
appreciators of it6 ,for music is only  
to  be really enjoyed by the average man
 when it is repeatedly heard1           
repeatedly considered4 ,certainly the   
people of the new age will be  epicures 
of the emotions which comprehended music
 is so nobly capable  of stirring4      
,no doubt the new age will have solved1 
in a far more satisfactory  way than we 
have been able to solve as yet1 the     

problem of chromatic  photography4 ,when
 colour influences photographic plates  
or some  contrivance substituted for    
them1 not indirectly by a mechanical    
sorting-out of tints1 but by affecting  
directly the optical  properties of the 
plates or whatever may succeed plates1  
we shall  have marvellously accurate    
pictures4 #f    ,nor is this all4 ,the  
kinetoscope1 as at present exhibited    
under  various unpleasing names1 is     
imperfect in two ways3 first because  it
 is powerless to reproduce colour1 and  
secondly because it gives  at best a    
mere magic-lantern picture violently out
 of focus1 and by  its pulsatory motion 
horribly distressing to the eyes4       
,chromatic  photography will overcome   
the former difficulty4 ,when we find out
  how to increase greatly the receptive 
rapidity of photographic  emulsion      
without spoiling what photographers call
 the grain of  it2 or when we have      
improved1 as we every year are          
improving1 the  optical qualities of    

lenses1 we shall be able to have our    
pictures  in focus4 ,the distressing    
flicker of moving pictures is an        
objection  purely mechanical in its     
cause4 ,but when1 as they will be in a  
few  years1 all these objections except 
the first have been removed1 and  even  
when we have colour-photography in a    
true sense of the word1  there will     
still remain one field to conquer4 ,we  
must have1 instead of  moving pictures1 
something which represents all objects  
as solid4 ,the  difference is the       
difference between an ordinary          
photograph and a  highly-improved       
stereoscopic picture magnified to       
life-size4 ,when  these advantages are  
attained it will be possible to         
represent1  exactly as it happened1 any 
event which has been suitably           
photographed4    ,the utility of this as
 a means of intelligent amusement will  
be at once  perceived4 ,imagine the     
theatre of the future4 ,probably it will
 not be  beyond the means of the rich1  

even when restrained from               
over-possession  as it is evident that  
they must be1 to have theatre-rooms in  
their own  houses4 ,but the masses will 
no doubt go to the theatre much as they 
do  now4 ,only instead of seeing a      
company of actors and actresses1 more or
  less mediocre1 engaged in the         
degrading task of repeating time after  
time the same words1 the same gestures1 
the same actions1 they will  see the    
performance of a complete star company1 
as once enacted at  its very best1      
reproduced as often as it may be wanted1
 the perfected  kinetoscope exhibiting  
the spectacle of the stage1 the talking 
machine  and the phonograph 7doubtless  
differentiated7 rendering perfectly the 
voices of the actors and the music of   
the orchestra4 ,there will be  no need  
for the employment of inferior actors in
 the small parts4 ,as  the production of
 any play will only demand that it be   
worked up to  the point of perfection   
and then performed once1 there will be  

no  difficulty in securing the most     
perfect rendering that it is capable    
of4 ,the actor's art will be immensely  
elevated1 not only by his  relief from  
the drudgery of repeated performance and
 by the leisure  thus afforded him for  
study and reflection1 but also by the   
removal  of what is keenly felt by all  
players of sensibility and ambition as  
one of the greatest drawbacks of the    
stage4 ,we are accustomed to the        
actor's complaint that whereas the      
author1 the sculptor1 the painter1  the 
composer of music1 makes for himself a  
fame imperishable as the  products of   
his art1 the actor frets his hour and   
disappears from  the stage1 to be       
promptly forgotten by an ungrateful     
public4 ,well1  the actor's art1 like   
the art of the executant musician1 will 
have the  endowment of permanency4 ,and 
there will be a magnificent opportunity 
for the actor as artist1 in that he will
 be able to compare himself  and his    
fellows with the actors who are dead and

 can act no more4 ,it  is probably true 
that ,irving is the greatest actor since
 ,garrick1  but who can prove it8 ,the  
actor's art is transient to-day3 it will
  be permanent1 it will be classical1 in
 the next century4 ,by this fact  not   
only will the pleasures of the theatre  
be made cheap1 convenient  and varied1  
but the art of the theatre will be      
vastly improved4    ,just as the actor  
will be spared the drudgery of          
mechanical1 parrotlike  repetition1 so  
the indifferent maidens of the new age  
will have no  need to waste their time  
in learning to play upon musical        
instruments  more or less imperfectly4  
,no doubt some who are not professional 
musicians will do so for their own      
pleasure4 ,but the professional         
executant himself will cease1 like the  
actor1 to rank as a sort of  superior   
harlequin or performing animal1         
exhibiting his powers for  the diversion
 of an assembled public4 ,what he has   
once played can1  if he choose1 be      

constantly repeated4 ,the executant will
 be paid by  a royalty on each          
reproduction1 when he is wise4 ,less    
prudent artists  will sell their records
 for a lump sum1 just as the unthrifty  
author  sells his copyrights4 ,but let  
it be noted that1 on the assumption     
that the reproduction is perfect1 the   
evolution above predicted  is a highly  
artistic one4 ,instead of the executant 
or singer being  judged by his          
performance on an occasion when fatigue1
 illness or  unfavourable circumstances 
may militate against his perfect        
success1  when the nerve-shattering     
conditions of the platform probably in  
any  case offend his susceptibilities   
and detract from the perfection of  his 
performance1 he will be able to found   
his reputation upon the  very best      
performance he is capable of4 ,he will  
be able to try and  try again in the    
privacy of his study4 ,when he has      
satisfied himself1  and then alone1 will
 he publish his artistic effort to the  

world4 ,he  can destroy as many         
unsatisfactory records as he pleases1   
just as  the sculptor can break up his  
clay when he has not succeeded1 just  as
 the painter can paint out his picture  
when it has not pleased him1  and be    
judged only by his best4    ,it would be
 ignoring the most obvious              
characteristics of mankind to  suppose  
that the pleasures of the new age will  
be limited to a mere  mechanical        
development of those which we enjoy at  
present4 ,there  can be no doubt that   
new delights will be invented4 ,with a  
general  improvement in intelligence and
 in the standard of comfort2 with a     
moneyed class compelled1 by the         
enactments which we have imagined1 to   
enjoy a considerable accession of       
leisure2 with conditions which will1  as
 we have hoped1 reduce materially the   
necessary hours of labour  for the      
worker2 with some of the most engrossing
 amusements of the  present age         
abolished for sentimental reasons2 we   

may take it for  granted that a great   
demand for new recreations will develop4
 ,some  of these considerations might   
easily give us pause4 ,we might perhaps 
fear that vice--either the extension of 
existing vices or 7if that  indeed be   
possible7 the invention of new          
ones--might be a terrifying  problem of 
the next century1 if we had not         
foreseen1 concurrently  with the other  
developments anticipated1 a marked moral
 improvement  in human nature4 ,there is
 in the calculations of the pessimist   
and  the reactionary no fallacy more    
mischievous than the oft-recited        
aphorism that human nature is the same  
in all places and at all  times4 ,that  
is precisely what human nature is not4  
,spectacles which  delighted ancient    
,rome would revolt modern civilisation4 
,spectacles  which are still keenly     
enjoyed in ,spain would revolt ,england 
or the  ,united ,states1 and probably   
awaken the activity of the police4      
,human  morality has demonstrably       

advanced in historic time3 it has very  
perceptibly advanced1 as ,i showed in an
 earlier chapter1 #g during  the        
nineteenth century4 ,but the improvement
 in this respect which the  next hundred
 years will show must1 in all human     
probability1 greatly  excel that of the 
past time4 ,and thus1 though a sane and 
reasonable  anticipation will not       
exclude the possibility of regrettable  
accidents  in the future moral history  
of mankind1 it will also regard them as 
probably transient4 ,the vices regarded 
as incident to complicated              
civilisations have perhaps been too     
hastily considered by despairing        
moralists4 ,vice is essentially stupid4 
,it is only in occasional1 in  sporadic 
instances that we are presented with the
 terrible spectacle  of great           
intelligences depraved by gross         
immorality and animalism3  and even     
then1 this combination is only possible 
where a high degree  of culture is in   
contact with a widespread               

unintelligence4 ,most likely  it will be
 found1 when the abstract laws of vice  
come to be mapped out  with more        
exactness than1 so far as ,i am aware1  
they have yet been1  that the           
degeneracies and immoralities of        
greatly-civilised ages are  in reality  
only the product of luxury seated upon  
degradation4 ,the  ,french moralists of 
the eighteenth century had a glimmering 
of this  in their idyllic pictures of   
reformed society1 when the old morality 
of the simple life was to return with   
the abolition of oligarchic  splendour  
and popular misery4    ,in one direction
 we may see means by which intelligent  
recreation may be supposed capable of   
vast developments4 ,already  the study  
of the psychical side of man has been   
the means of  extraordinary discoveries4
 ,our knowledge of hypnotism1           
suggestion1  thought-transference and   
similar psychological wonders1 obscured 
though  it has unhappily been by        
charlatanism and the importation into   

the  subject of irrelevant follies1 has 
great promise for the future man1  whose
 psychical faculties will unquestionably
 develop at the expense of  his animal  
instincts4 ,it is hardly possible to    
limit our conception of  the means by   
which thought will be communicated in   
the next century1  but we may see just  
where the change will probably come4 ,a 
printed  essay1 such as this1 is        
obviously a successive translation of   
thought  into words 7in the brain71 then
 of the words into letters1 and then of 
letters into type1 which is picked up by
 the eye1 retranslated into  words by   
one part of the brain1 and finally      
transmuted into thought  again in       
another part4 ,if some method can be    
discovered of abolishing  one or more of
 these processes1 thought can be        
conveyed from brain to  brain at an     
enormously increased pace1 and with a   
delicacy of which we  have no present   
conception4 ,this development is not so 
inconceivable  as it at first appears4  

,we know as yet almost nothing of the   
processes  by which 7for instance7      
vibration1 accepted by the ear as sound1
 is1  in the brain-cells behind the ear1
 converted into thought4 ,speech  and   
writing are purely conventional devices4
 ,if1 instead of using  these           
conventions1 we can learn to transmit   
ideas immediately from  brain to brain1 
the next step may be an extraordinary   
development of  intellectual pleasures1 
in the case of those individuals whose  
tastes  are capable of thus being       
ministered to4 ,but to say this is not  
to  imply that the ordinary means of    
human intercommunication will be        
dispensed with4 ,for most occasions1 and
 for all but the subtlest and  most     
refined necessities of thought1 no doubt
 books1 newspapers and  letters will    
remain a feature of everyday            
life--though of course with  such       
modifications as the progress of the    
century will have called  forth4 ,the   
future of the newspaper in particular is

 a subject of such  great importance    
that it requires to be discussed in     
detail4                ,,chapter ,v     
,,the ,,newspaper ,,of ,,the ,,future1  
,,and ,,the ,,future ,,of ,,the         
,,newspaper      ,suspending1 as hardly 
within the bounds of manageable         
conjecture1 any  attempt to follow up   
the suggestion with which the previous  
chapter  concluded1 we can very easily  
imagine the lines on which newspapers   
such as we know are likely to develop   
mechanically4 ,a number of  processes   
already existing in embryo can be shown 
to be capable of  very great extension2 
and several discoveries which an        
intelligent  anticipation is capable of 
predicting could1 and doubtless will1   
be applied to journalism4    ,to foresee
 the future of the newspaper on what may
 be called the  editorial side is a much
 more difficult task1 because we have   
here to  take into account the influence
 of the developed and rationalised      
education of the people1 which is       

certain to demand very great  changes4  
,daily newspapers of the present moment 
are in a more or less  transitional     
state4 ,it can hardly1 ,i think1 be     
denied that the papers  which enjoy the 
greatest popularity exhibit             
retrogression in many  respects when    
compared with the best newspapers of    
twenty-five years  ago4 ,but they are   
much more widely and popularly read4    
,the collective  influence of their     
largely-extended circulations is no     
doubt very  great1 though the influence 
of the newspaper on the individual is   
less1 and is attained in a different    
way4 ,the old newspapers aimed1  and the
 survivors of their class still aim1 at 
an influence based on  argument4 ,they  
used to report events1 speeches and     
movements of their  age more or less    
colourlessly1 and to comment upon these 
things more  or less one-sidedly1       
according to their respective political 
bias4 ,they  were ponderous1 cultured1  
dignified1 and a trifle dull4 ,when an  

adverse  statesman made a speech which  
they did not like1 they reported it     
faithfully1 and tore it to pieces in the
 formidable middle pages4 ,the  leading 
article was their most important weapon3
 they sought their  chief effect by its 
means4 ,but the day of the leading      
article is nearly  ended4 ,the newspaper
 of the early--perhaps the              
immediate--future will  almost certainly
 dispense with leading articles         
altogether1 and be  much more a         
news-carrier than an educator4 ,it will 
attack adverse  opinion by simply not   
reporting it4 ,it will sometimes1 no    
doubt1  minimise facts unfavourable to  
its political side by garbling them4    
,but  leading articles had a useful     
function not yet mentioned--that of     
explaining the news-columns4 ,things    
which the ordinary 7but fairly          
intelligent7 newspaper-reader was likely
 to have forgotten1 or to be  ignorant  
of1 were 7and still are1 where leading  
articles worthy of the  name exist7     

explained and amplified4 ,in the        
newspaper of the future1  little        
paragraphs having the same purpose will 
no doubt be1 as they  already begin to  
be1 tacked on to the ends of news-items3
 and so far  as comment continues to be 
given at all1 on such matters as        
political  speeches from the enemy1 it  
will be given in this form4 ,speeches   
from the newspaper's own side will not  
require comment4 ,newspaper  space will 
have too many demands upon it to permit 
of a statesman's  arguments being first 
printed semi-verbatim 7actual verbatim  
reporting  hardly exists even now7 and  
then marshalled forth all over again in 
editorials4 ,whatever attempt is made to
 influence opinion through  political   
reporting will be made by selective     
processes4 ,the arguments  of the       
adversary will be simply suppressed4    
,although the old newspaper was really a
 much more intelligent affair  than the 
popular dailies of the present          
decade--and it is chiefly  of daily     

papers that ,i am now speaking--it is   
not very likely that a  reversion will  
take place4 ,it is a curious feature of 
all progress1  that however much an     
existing institution may be perceived to
 be  retrograde in comparison with older
 institutions1 reversion hardly ever    
occurs4 ,we adapt and modify what we    
have4 ,we do not revive what we have    
lost4 ,and the regeneration of the      
newspaper will be forced upon the       
newspaper-office by the development of  
public intelligence4 ,comment  will     
probably during the next few decades be 
eliminated from daily  journalism       
altogether1 and confined to serious     
weekly publications1  somewhat on the   
lines of our monthly reviews1 and to    
other publications  summarising the     
latter1 like the present ,review of     
,reviews1 perhaps  the most useful      
periodical now being issued1 with the   
single exception  of ,the ,times4 ,thus 
the daily newspaper will be entirely a  
vehicle  for the propagation of news1   

correctly so called3 and very likely  it
 will become almost entirely colourless1
 politically1 because a  well-informed  
public will resent obvious garbling or  
clearly unfair  selection4 ,the         
newspaper reader will no longer 7as now7
 want only to  hear what is said on a   
side more or less emotionally and hardly
 at  all reflectively embraced4 ,he will
 want to know what is said on all       
sides1 and will make up his own mind1   
instead of swallowing whole the  printed
 opinions1 real or momentarily assumed1 
of other people4 ,thus1  though the     
frantic popular paper of to-day will no 
doubt increase  and multiply1 and       
replenish its circulation books1 as long
 as the  present system of blind        
half-education survives1 the newspaper  
which  satisfies the new age will be a  
very different affair4 ,it will no      
doubt discard many of the trivialities  
now reported as news1 when a  black     
woman of ,timbuctoo could hardly bring  
forth four piccaninnies  at a birth     

without the fact getting into the       
halfpenny ,london papers2  but it will  
record the really important news in ways
 far more graphic1  and with a far more 
complete appeal to the imagination1 than
 we have  as yet any but the vaguest    
notion of4    ,the news considered most 
important a hundred years hence will    
probably  be news as to developments of 
public opinion4 ,it is hardly           
conceivable  that exactly the methods of
 ,government which exist at present will
  satisfy the developed consciousness of
 the new time3 and most likely  the     
methods then adopted for the            
ascertainment of public opinion1  and   
the machinery devised for giving it     
administrative effect1  will create     
subject-matter for a type of journalism 
of which the  very perceptible          
rudiments1 though still nothing but the 
rudiments1  already exist4 ,if ,i am    
right in expecting great results to flow
 from  new ideas and practice in our    
educational system1 it is certain that  

the notion of political freedom will    
greatly extend its effect3  and the     
unavoidable corollary is that movements 
of public thought  will become a matter 
of the very keenest journalistic        
interest and of  the very highest       
journalistic importance4 ,the most      
probable means to  be adopted for giving
 effect1 in the middle-distance of the  
future1  to developed public feeling    
must be left for discussion in a later  
chapter3 but when we perceive that the  
political duty of executing  the will of
 the people must constitute the         
paramount work of the                   
constitution-builder in the latter half 
of the present century1  we cannot fail 
to deduce a vast effect on newspapers4  
,broadly speaking1 what will occur will 
be the result of clearer  thinking4 ,we 
shall very likely amend our political   
institutions after  the characteristic  
,english manner1 which is perhaps really
 the safest1  though it rather suggest  
the methods of a cobbler who repairs a  

boot  by1 from time to time1            
successively replacing sole1 vamp1      
golosh and  upper1 until there remains a
 boot which is not a new boot1 though it
  contains none of the original boot's  
material4 ,our constitution has  been   
built 7to employ a better similitude7 by
 a series of architects  who reconstruct
 and repair the old building1 with a    
constant adhesion  to as much of the old
 style as they can retain1 and who will 
in the  end present the people with a   
house entirely reconstructed1 but       
bearing  marks all over it of the       
original design4 ,we already begin to   
perceive  that what is regarded as      
political freedom at the present day has
  developed from the entire tyranny of  
absolute monarchy1 through the  modified
 tyranny of limited monarchies1 still   
not wholly powerless1  to the nearly    
absolute tyranny of parliaments4 ,the   
last now begin to  delegate powers to   
local councils having administrative    
functions1 and  must presently delegate 

them to local parliaments having        
legislative  functions on some          
home-rule-all-round principle1 not      
because  decentralisation is liked1 but 
because the intolerable inconveniences  
of centralisation will make             
decentralisation inevitable4 ,the more  
energetic propagandists of various      
systems of constitutional reform  nearly
 all agree in one respect3 they all     
desire to set up some new  kind of      
tyranny4 ,few--except the philosophical 
anarchists1 who suffer  from the        
opprobrium brought upon the name of     
anarchists by quite a  different set of 
thinkers--perceive that to endow with   
power any sort  of machinery resting on 
the shifting will of a majority tends   
very  little towards freedom and not at 
all towards stability--the latter  even 
more important in some respects than the
 former4 ,in proportion  to the         
development of education 7in nature even
 more than in extent71  it is likely    
that the present blind faith of the     

public in the ability  of the ,state to 
do almost anything1 and the still       
blinder tendency  of the public to      
require the ,state to do all sorts of   
things which  could be better           
accomplished otherwise1 will diminish1  
and we shall  perceive the enormous     
educational disadvantage of allowing the
 citizen  to lean too heavily on the    
,state4 ,a public properly and          
sufficiently  educated will1 with       
enormous difficulty 7because there is   
nothing  so hard to get rid of as a bad 
habit of dependency71 gradually         
undertake the task of doing for itself  
by free combination what at  present we 
try to get done for us by governmental  
machinery4 ,one  sees how this sort of  
thing is gradually evolving1 in spite of
 the  violent efforts of politicians to 
shove the world backwards and  keep us  
walking on crutches instead of          
strengthening us to walk  alone4        
,statutes determining the wages of      
labourers and the price  of commodities 

are laughed at as examples of medival   
foolishness1  though 7what is exactly   
the same thing in principle7 ,government
 still  interferes with the freights    
charged by railway companies1 and indeed
  is obliged thus to interfere because  
it has already gone out of the  right   
way by the powers it has granted to     
railway companies4 ,the new             
education--the education which builds   
character instead of merely  diffusing  
information 7generally useless7--will   
teach us the far  greater advantages    
attaching to results attained by free   
combination1  and the ,state will be    
relieved of many functions at present   
regarded  as essential to it1 and often 
sought to be increased4    ,now the     
working of free combination for the     
attainment of these  results would be   
almost impossible without the constant  
interchange  of views which newspapers  
subserve1 and without careful           
newsgathering  as to the progress in    
detail of various schemes and of public 

opinion  concerning them4    ,to say    
that this kind of thing will constitute 
the most important class  of news is not
 to imply that the public will develop  
an unintelligent  indifference to news  
of other kind1 though it is allowable to
 hope that  it will develop an          
intelligent indifference to the         
trivialities at  present solemnly       
chronicled by the popular papers4 ,it   
may be doubted  whether1 even now1 the  
public is quite so passionately         
interested in  the minuti of murder     
trials as editors imagine3 but with     
invention  steadily moving on1 and its  
consequences habitually developing in   
unexpected ways1 there will be plenty of
 news to chronicle4    ,of course the   
one class of news which is at once the  
most expensive  and the most helpful to 
a daily paper--,i mean its individual   
exclusive war correspondence--will be   
done with by the end of this  century4  
,remembering the rate of progress       
foreseen in the early part  of this work

 #h and the moral nature of that        
progress1 we may take  it as quite      
certain that war as an institution will 
be as obsolete  as gladiators in the    
year #bjjj4 ,even if the increasing     
amenity of the  human race did not      
abolish war1 two other things would be  
certain to  do so4 ,one is the enormous 
development1 already clearly in sight1  
of the means of destruction3 the other  
the revolt of the peoples  against the  
stupendous cost1 not merely or chiefly  
in time of war1  but also in time of    
peace1 of modern armaments4 ,the rising 
tide of  educated democracy must        
inevitably banish war4 ,we have lately1 
in  our own ,south ,african experience1 
seen how crushingly expensive1 how      
intolerably impoverishing1 a tiny war   
can be3 and all this is a mere  trifle  
compared with what it had cost us to be 
even very ill-prepared  for even such an
 insignificant combat4 ,this kind of    
thing cannot go  on for very long and   
the peace of ,dives #i must soon be upon

 us4    ,but even while war still       
continues to recur it is likely that the
  newspapers will have to sacrifice many
 of the advantages which they  at       
present derive from the intense popular 
appetite for the details of  organised  
death4 ,the war-correspondent1 when he  
can use the telegraph1  is a great      
nuisance to commanders in the field1 and
 the increasing  difficulties and       
importance of modern combat will have   
the effect1  eventually1 of causing     
generals to forbid telegraphic          
communication  from the field or its    
neighbourhood altogether1 on account of 
the  information1 useful to an alert    
enemy1 liable to find its way through   
the wires4 ,consequently #aj war        
correspondence will be all under  strict
 censorship1 and will take the form     
chiefly of written and  photographic    
descriptions1 in a documentary form1    
probably conveyed  by the organisation  
controlled by the fighting army itself4 
,these may  perhaps be telegraphed to   

the newspaper office from some          
intermediate  port when the theatre of  
war is distant--for unquestionably we   
shall1 before very long1 be able to     
telegraph pictures quite as  easily as  
words4 ,and this brings us face to face 
with one of the  most interesting and   
important developments to be looked for 
in the  vending of news4 ,beyond doubt1 
newspaper illustration will1 in even the
  near future1 be the subject of great  
and1 in fact1 of revolutionary          
improvement4 ,every daily paper will be 
copiously illustrated1 and  illustrated 
in colour4 ,it is easy to foresee that  
before many years  we shall be able to  
photograph any object or scene in its   
natural  colours at one operation4 ,we  
can already do so in three1 and by the  
same number of machinings we can        
reproduce such pictures in print1       
provided we can afford to print slowly  
enough and on a sufficiently  smooth    
paper4 ,the process is in its earliest  
infancy as yet4 ,we shall  ultimately   

make it far more practicable4 ,but even 
so1 printing presses  of the present    
sort are far too slow for newspaper use4
 ,a hundred  years hence magazines and  
weekly periodicals may perhaps still be 
printed on greatly improved presses2 but
 daily papers will be produced  by      
photography alone4 ,already the ,rntgen 
rays will print a dozen or  more images 
at a time on superimposed sensitive     
papers4 ,in the next  century all that  
will be necessary in order to multiply  
type-matter  and illustrations in any   
number of colours will be to place the  
original on a pile of paper and expose  
it to the rays of some source  of       
energy1 when the whole matter will be   
impressed upon every sheet1  and this   
not by any mere contact of type and     
process-blocks with paper  7which       
involves serious difficulties1 owing to 
the interference of the  paper-surface  
with the grain of the etched screen7 but
 by direct  action of light1 or of some 
influence taking the place of light1  so

 that perfectly clear pictures will be  
produced4 ,and news of all  sorts will  
be the subject of this kind of          
illustration4    ,what will happen will 
in detail be this4 ,the teleautoscope   
#aa 7the  instrument by which sight will
 be wirelessly telegraphed7 will exhibit
  the actual facts in every newspaper   
office from colour-photographs  taken on
 the spot4 ,what it shows will be       
rephotographed and reproduced  in       
colours4    ,the amount of verbal       
description needed will thus be much    
diminished4 ,where an event can be long 
anticipated--when it is an  event like  
the ,delhi ,durbar or the christening of
 the ,czarewitch1  for                  
instance--elaborate preparations will be
 made1 and very perfect  results        
published4 ,and difficulties of merely  
photographic detail1  which at present  
restrict rapid photography to events in 
full sunlight1  having been overcome1   
and instantaneous photography by        
artificial  light having been made      

possible1 such an event as an important 
theatrical production in ,london will be
 pictorially reported in the  ,new ,york
 and ,san ,francisco papers next        
morning4 ,where an event is of  an      
unexpected character--such as a great   
fire1 a riot1 or some sudden  cataclysm 
of ,nature--the teleautoscope will still
 be employed with  great advantage4     
,take1 for instance1 the case of some   
large public  building or some theatre  
destroyed by fire--though fires will not
 be  so frequent in the new age as they 
are to-day4 ,the local newspaper        
artists will select from their          
portfolios photographs of the building  
kept on hand for such occasions and get 
to work on them with paint-box  and     
colours1 depicting the progress of what 
they will perhaps still  cling          
sufficiently to tradition to call the   
conflagration2 and  they will transmit  
these efforts when it is not possible to
 transmit  actual photographs of the    
event4 ,and of course1 when all is over1

 the  ruins will be photographed in     
colours from every desirable standpoint1
  and the descriptive photographer will1
 in a great measure1 supplant  the      
penny-a-liner4 ,many pieces of news will
 doubtless be photographed  from the    
small one-man air-carriages1 the        
employment of which1 as a  means of     
recreation1 we have already foreseen4   
#ab    ,the real news of the world will 
therefore be served up with far more    
vividness than even the most feverish   
present-day journalism dreams  of1 and  
the newspaper will be far more quickly  
read1 because long  descriptive articles
 will have gone out of fashion1 and a   
series of  pictures1 occupying much more
 space1 but apprehended by the mind with
  far greater rapidity1 will supply     
their place4 ,even in what remains  of  
the printed word ,i think that great    
compression is probable4 ,it  must be   
remembered that even in the             
best-educated parts of ,england  we are 
hardly through the first generation     

which universally knows  how to read1   
and already newspaper-,english is taking
 on a character  of its own1 very       
different from the journalese of the    
old-fashioned  reporters4 ,by degrees a 
sort of slang1 distinguished chiefly by 
brevity  and conciseness1 will evolve   
itself in the newspapers1 especially    
those published in large towns--though  
indeed it is quite evident that  in a   
few years daily newspapers will be      
published nowhere else4 ,this  terse1   
quick language will1 after a period of  
reprobation1 be adopted  even by the    
less progressive newspapers1 at first   
shocked to tears  of indignant printer's
 ink by the defilement of the mother    
tongue1  and it will accelerate vastly  
the task of running through the paper1  
a task which must1 even in the less     
hurried manners which ,i foresee for    
the future1 be made as speedy as        
possible by the newspaper that would    
thrive and increase its circulation4    
,thus literature1 already restive  in an

 uncongenial wedlock1 will finally      
obtain divorce from daily  journalism4  
,this does not mean that literature will
 perish4 ,on the  contrary1 it will     
develop4 ,and the periodicals other than
 newspapers  will excel our own in merit
 of every sort4 ,they will be permanent1
  dignified and1 above all1 literary4   
,for with the education of the  people  
really carried to perfection1 and with  
universal leisure1  the result of       
improved social arrangements even more  
than of improved  mechanical processes1 
we shall have a demand for a really     
intelligent  periodical literature1 for 
really artistic illustrations1 which    
will  make it commercially possible to  
publish matter that only artificial     
endowment could support nowadays4       
,and shall we be content with it8       
,certainly not2 for the new age will    
still be an age of progress1 and the    
very perfection of the periodical       
,press will be the greatest of all      
stimulants to further effort4           

,although1 in some of their             
characteristics1 they will be greatly   
ameliorated1 advertisements may very    
likely still constitute  one ground of  
discontent with the newspaper of the    
future4 ,they  sometimes are1 in the    
newspaper of to-day1 the subject of     
complaint  not altogether reasonable1   
because if there were no advertisements 
there could be no newspapers4 ,at all   
events1 without this powerful  source of
 revenue our newspapers could be neither
 so cheap nor so  liberally conducted as
 they are2 and all the economies of the 
new  age will probably be insufficient  
to enable newspaper proprietors  to     
dispense with them4 ,the better and the 
more generously-conducted  newspapers   
are1 the more money they spend in the   
careful collection1  editing1 printing  
and illustrating of public information1 
the more  dependent they will become on 
the revenue from advertising1 which  is 
the sinew of journalism2 and the more   
widely and attentively  newspapers are  

read1 the greater will be the revenue   
they are able to  command from this     
source4 ,moreover1 they would be        
incomplete without  this feature4 ,the  
unreflecting newspaper-reader1 who      
anathematises  his favourite journal    
because its weight and bulk are         
increased by  the presence of           
advertisements which he does not want1  
seldom takes  into account the fact that
 there are plenty of his fellow-readers 
who do want them1 or some of them1 and  
that he himself is often in  the same   
predicament4 ,thousands of copies of    
newspapers are bought  every day in     
order to consult advertisements which   
they are known  to contain4 ,a man who  
purposes to take his family to a concert
 often  buys ,the ,daily ,telegraph     
because he knows that ,the ,daily       
,telegraph has  more concert            
announcements in it than any other      
paper1 and that it is  in fact a        
practically complete directory to all   
the current musical  opportunities of   

the ,metropolis4 ,another man1 who wants
 a secretary1  or a steward for his     
estate1 probably orders ,the ,times     
because he  knows that the best class of
 secretaries and stewards advertise in  
,the ,times for employment4 ,one hardly 
goes to the theatre or buys a  supply of
 coals without looking at the daily     
paper for information2  and assuredly   
this information is not inserted without
 being paid  for2 in other words1 it    
forms part of the advertisements4       
,deprived of  newspaper advertisements  
as a way of announcing its need of      
clerks1  warehousemen1 labourers and    
assistants of all kinds1 commerce1 even 
if it could manage without              
advertisements of the sort more commonly
  thought of when the nuisance of them  
is being condemned1 could hardly  keep  
up its organisation at all4 ,thus1 so   
far from this feature of our  newspapers
 being a grievance1 it is both directly 
and indirectly a boon  to all who read  
them4 ,and when we remember in addition 

that the cost  of the paper and printing
 alone in a copy of most newspapers     
exceeds  the price at which each copy is
 sold by the proprietor1 so that the    
whole cost of newsgathering1 the whole  
cost of editing1 the fees of            
contributors and artists1 and the cost  
of pictures and engraving1 as  well as  
the profit which induces persons to     
embark upon an enterprise  so           
troublesome and precarious as           
newspaper-publishing1 must be obtained  
from the cost of advertisements and from
 this alone1 we cannot doubt  that the  
enormously developed newspaper of a     
hundred years hence will  give us bold  
advertisement1 even as now1 and that our
 descendants  will have the intelligence
 to be very glad that it does so4       
,this being unquestionable1 we can      
hardly think that we have made a        
complete forecast of the newspaper of   
the future unless we consider  what sort
 of advertisements it will contain1 and 
in order to do this  we must consider   

just what advertising is likely to be   
needed in the  new age4    ,as every    
condition of commerce must necessarily  
be affected by the  mechanical and      
economic developments of another        
century1 evidently  advertising will    
have to undergo vast changes in order to
 adapt itself  to new requirements4     
,already competition and the urgent     
demand of the  public for all possible  
utilities and luxuries to be supplied   
with  the greatest economy of money and 
trouble have produced changes in  the   
machinery of supply and demand which    
must develop at an increasing  speed as 
time goes on4 ,one tendency of these    
things is current talk2  we speak of    
eliminating the middleman4 ,well1 the   
middleman will  certainly be eliminated 
by the end of the century1 and one of   
the  forces which will help to eliminate
 him is the very force with which1  at  
present1 he endeavours1 with a high     
degree of transient success1 to  defend 
himself--the very force we have to      

discuss here2 advertisement4    ,so long
 as a population is scattered into      
groups in small towns1  and hampered by 
difficulty and expense in               
transportation1 there is  an evident    
advantage in the retail-shop system4    
,but we can hardly  with convenience    
remain a nation of shopkeepers in the   
present and  future state of            
concentration and with cheapened        
transport4 ,it is  only necessary to    
observe the different ways in which we  
supply  ourselves with commodities1     
according to where we live1 in order to 
understand the tendencies at work4 ,in a
 village remote from any large  town    
there are generally one or two general  
shops1 at which a highly  miscellaneous 
collection of merchandise is handled4   
,the smaller the  village the more      
miscellaneous the stock kept at a single
 trading  establishment4 ,in a small    
town the shops differentiate themselves 
more3 but they still cross the boundary 
lines of trade1 and one  gets tobacco at

 the chemist's and goes to the draper's 
for writing  materials and books4 ,when 
we come to towns somewhat larger1 trades
  keep more to themselves1 and it is    
often possible to find a place  where   
there are no miscellaneous shops at all1
 except those owned by  the industrial  
co-operative societies now so common and
 so useful to  the thriftier artisans4  
,it is only when we enter the largest   
towns  and cities of all that we find   
large shops divided into departments    
and again selling almost everything     
under one roof4    ,the conditions in   
these large towns are an index to what  
is likely to  occur a hundred years     
hence3 because 7as has already been     
seen7 towns  will certainly grow1 and   
the population will become more         
concentrated1  while1 even where        
improved facilities for travel enable   
men to live at  a great distance from   
their work1 the same facilities will    
enable their  wives to do their shopping
 in the centres of commerce4            

,consequently1  except for a few highly 
perishable commodities1 such as milk1   
butter  and the like1 small shopkeepers 
in residential neighbourhoods will  be  
driven out of business1 as they are in  
fact already being driven  out of it in 
the suburbs and dependencies of all     
large cities4    ,it is always possible 
for a large miscellaneous trader to sell
 at  a smaller percentage of profit than
 a trader in a single class of          
merchandise3 and by his bulkier         
purchases the former is also able  to   
start with a lower cost price1 and thus 
he is in every way better  situated to  
meet the demand for cheapness4 ,he can  
also meet the demand  for convenience1  
because when he is getting almost the   
whole trade of a  family1 even at some  
little distance1 he can afford to       
arrange for the  transportation of goods
 in ways convenient to the purchaser4   
,thus the  small shopkeeper will lose   
custom in every way and the large       
shopkeeper  will gain custom4 ,but there

 is still a middleman4 ,we have not yet 
begun  to see how he is to be           
eliminated1 but only how he is to be    
limited  in his numbers while being     
individually pampered with increased    
trade4    ,no one who observes the trend
 of things1 however1 can have failed to 
note how1 from both sides1 the          
middleman1 qu middleman1 is liable  to  
be squeezed out4 ,these very large      
retailers tend more and more to  become1
 little by little1 manufacturers instead
 of merely agents for  the manufactures 
of other people4 ,very often they are   
actually forced  to this by the         
difficulty of obtaining a regular supply
 of goods of  satisfactory quality from 
the existing factories4 ,one of the     
largest  companies doing a miscellaneous
 retailing business has an enormous     
estate in the neighbourhood of ,london  
covered with orchards where fruit  is   
grown for sale and for jam-making2 and  
it has factories of various  kinds      
dotted all round the ,metropolis1 though

 a few years ago it was a  simple       
trading concern which manufactured      
nothing4 ,on the other hand1  large     
manufacturers in many trades 7of which  
the boot trade is an  example which must
 have come under the notice of every    
reader7 are  tending to open retail     
shops of their own in favourable        
localities1  so as to obtain the        
retailer's commission as well as the    
manufacturer's  profit4 ,evidently these
 large manufacturer-shopkeepers are more
 likely  to be extensive advertisers    
than small one-shop retailers4          
,another circumstance which will tend to
 the increase of advertising  is already
 apparent in the growing tendency of the
 public to prefer  branded or packed    
commodities before bulk goods4 ,such    
groceries as tea1  oatmeal and the like 
are more and more purchased in packets  
bearing  a manufacturer's name or       
trade-mark1 instead of being purchased  
from  bulk and wrapped up by the grocer4
 ,the obvious reason is that by this    

means a housewife can secure a greater  
uniformity of quality4 ,she  finds that 
she likes a certain manufacturer's      
oatmeal better than any  other1 and     
always buys it2 whereas if she bought   
bulk-oatmeal she would  have the product
 now of one mill1 now of another1 and   
these products  would vary4 ,the only   
way in which a manufacturer can call    
attention  to his speciality is to      
advertise it4 ,the immediate consequence
 of  this movement is the degradation of
 the retailer1 who ceases to be the     
custodian 7so to speak7 of his          
customers' interest and becomes a mere  
hander-out of packed specialities4 ,it  
is not very likely that every           
manufacturer of such specialities will  
become a retailer with shops            
everywhere2 but it is practically       
certain that trusts will be formed  on a
 sort of co-operative principle by      
combinations of manufacturers1  who will
 divide among themselves the expense of 
organisation and obtain  the whole      

profit without having to share it with  
any middleman4 ,and  in many departments
 of commerce the elimination of the     
retailer will  be secured by the        
utilisation of improved transport1      
orders being  received at the works by  
letter or telephone and executed direct 
from manufacturer to consumer4 ,such    
business can only be stimulated  through
 advertisement1 and the newspaper of the
 future constitutes  the most convenient
 medium for such advertisement4    ,the 
intrinsic nature of the vastly-extended 
advertising of the new  age will be     
influenced by the new growth of public  
intelligence4 ,once  almost wholly1 and 
now to a very great extent1 addressed to
 the least  intelligent faculties of the
 public--the faculties most liable to   
be influenced by large type and ad      
captandum phrasing--advertising  will in
 the future world become gradually more 
and more intelligent in  tone4 ,it will 
seek to influence demand by argument    
instead of clamour1  a tendency already 

more apparent every year4 ,cheap        
attention-calling  tricks and clap-trap 
will be wholly replaced1 as they are    
already  being greatly replaced1 by     
serious exposition2 and advertisements1 
instead of being mere repetitions of    
stale catch-words1 will be  made        
interesting and informative1 so that    
they will be welcomed  instead of being 
shunned2 and it will be just as suicidal
 for a  manufacturer to publish silly or
 fallacious claims to notoriety as  for 
a shopkeeper of the present day to seek 
custom by telling lies  to his          
customers4 ,skilful writers will be     
employed upon the work1 and  skilful    
journalists will think it no derogation 
from their dignity to  be employed in   
the writing of commercial               
advertisements4 ,no doubt the  methods  
of illustration employed in journalism  
proper will also be  pressed into the   
service of the advertiser1 and in this1 
as in other  respects1 our divine       
discontent will still look for          

improvements1  and the newspaper of the 
future will be a vast improvement upon  
the  newspaper of to-day4    ,although  
the distinction between journalism and  
literature is likely to  define itself  
more and more sharply--periodicals      
growing more literary1  and newspapers  
less literary--it is here convenient to 
pause for a  moment on the question of  
the direction in which literature is    
likely  to develop--meaning especially  
imaginative literature and poetry4 ,the 
past of this development1 widely        
considered1 has been1 of course1 since  
the close of the eighteenth century1    
from the classical1 through the         
romantic1 to the realistic school2 and  
the last has been associated  with a    
greatly-increased and minute            
consideration of language as an         
implement of exact and elegant          
expression4 ,literature has become1  and
 will no doubt continue to be1          
increasingly self-conscious4 ,happy     
effects are deliberately sought for4    

,felicity of phrase is no longer  a     
matter of unconscious1 almost           
accidental1 accomplishment2 it is       
purposefully and deliberately obtained4 
,we no longer expect inspiration  from  
the ,muses1 but climb ,parnassus with   
arduous consciousness of our            
meritorious pedestrianism4 ,the         
methodical1 scientific orderliness  of  
modern thought has1 in short1 invaded   
even the field of art1  and we have     
sometimes an air of trying to make of   
literature an exact  process4 ,perhaps  
very great literature1 and certainly1   
according to all  precedent1 very great 
poetry1 cannot be produced in that way4 
,there  is something of mystery about   
them1 something of the instinctive1 of  
the elemental1 or1 to speak with a more 
critical exactness1 of the  spiritual4  
,and the development and circumstances  
of very elaborate  civilisation do not  
wholly favour the spiritual4 ,but to    
conclude  from this that great poetry   
will never again be written would be to 

overlook one of the disturbing1 the     
cataclysmal factors of human  life4     
,this factor is one of the greatest     
pitfalls of the would-be  prophet4 ,by  
examining the past1 one could predict   
almost unfailingly  the future1 if there
 were not always1 and in every          
department of life1  the strange1       
incalculable thing which1 for want of a 
better name1  we call genius1 to be     
reckoned with1 to be almost alarmed by4 
,we  may examine1 we may reason1 we may 
reckon up almost anything2 but  athwart 
all our conjectures1 charm we never so  
wisely1 comes genius1  and              
revolutionises everything6 ,it is the   
one thing which no formula can  embrace4
 ,not in the realms of literature and   
art alone will it break in  and stultify
 our best prevision4 ,in every          
department of life we must  tread       
cautiously1 aware that no one who would 
forecast the future can  afford to      
neglect its disturbing possibilities4   
,we must prayerfully  and joyously      

expect that from time to time genius    
will suddenly arrive  and pass across   
the stage1 changing everything1 bringing
 to naught  our cunningest              
anticipations2 and as it is peculiarly  
the quality of  literature to be thus   
perturbed and regenerated1 we must not  
even  attempt to predict what schools   
the literature of the future will  pass 
through4 ,the only thing we can be      
certain of is that from time  to time   
some epoch-making mind will express     
itself4 ,acquainted with  all the       
devices of the schools it will brush    
them all aside1 and half  unconsciously1
 half a-dream1 as if indeed it were     
literally inspired1  it will establish  
new standards1 engender new methods1 and
 endow the  time with new delights4     
,criticism will dissect1 examine and    
explain1  until the creative mind is    
almost persuaded that it has all along  
understood itself2 but the one thing by 
which criticism must ever  be eluded1   
the one thing which must ever elude     

prophecy1 is genius  itself4 ,when all  
is said that man can say1 and all is    
said in vain1  the best explanation of  
the unexplainable is perhaps the old    
one1 that  genius brings in some way a  
message from outside the world4         
,perhaps1  since there is always a      
demand for something which man can      
worship1  this inspiration may be the   
subject of the conscious adoration of   
the new age4 ,perhaps we have here the  
subject of the religion of  the future2 
for inspiration1 as we may most         
conveniently name this  mystery1 has    
just that character of the unknowable   
half-seized1  which is precisely what   
the soul of man is ever yearning for4   
,,chapter ,,vi    ,,utilising ,,the     
,,sea      ,except for a small tribute  
in the shape of fish food and certain   
salts the ocean is to-day almost a dead 
loss to the world1 and what  is worse1  
the greatest of all obstacles to        
progress4 ,it separates  us from our    
kin1 wrecks our ships1 claims a yearly  

toll of dead1 and  is barren1 fruitless1
 a mere receptacle for garbage4 ,a      
hundred years  hence we shall have      
awakened to these facts and found means 
to make  the caverns vast of ocean old  
something better than a subject for  the
 poet and a resting-place for the dead  
whom it murders4    ,not every dream1   
however1 can be realised--not even the  
engineer's4 ,some years ago certain     
ardent spirits in ,france announced     
that the desert of ,sahara lay below the
 level of the sea and could be  flooded 
with the ,atlantic or ,mediterranean4   
,the effect of this1 it was  considered1
 would not merely be to inconvenience   
certain ,arabs1 but to  change entirely 
the climate of the rest of equatorial   
,africa4 ,laved by  the beneficent waves
 of ocean1 lands at present             
uninhabitable would1 it  was declared1  
become fertile and salubrious4 ,the     
project was dismissed  or shelved as    
impracticable from engineering          
difficulties4 ,shall we1  a hundred     

years hence1 have met these             
difficulties8    ,probably not4 ,to work
 such changes in the distribution of    
land  and water will be a thing not     
indeed beyond the power of the next     
century's engineers1 but beyond their   
daring4 ,the accomplishment  of them    
might1 if at all rapid1 be attended by  
frightful disasters1  some of which can 
be readily estimated1 but of which the  
worst would  probably remain unforeseen 
and unimagined until the irrevocable    
moment  of fulfilment4 ,to increase to  
this extent the area of the world's     
oceans1 without increasing 7as of course
 we could not increase7  their mass1    
would perceptibly lower the level of the
 sea everywhere1  and in accordance with
 the well-known hydrostatic law things  
would  right themselves on a cataclysmal
 scale4 ,every narrow strait in  the    
world1 every oceanic canal would become1
 for the time being1  a roaring         
cataract4 ,the ,mediterranean would rush
 tumultuously out  through the ,straits 

of ,gibraltar and the ,suez ,canal1 and 
the overflow  would flood the adjacent  
lands4 ,the ,straits of ,dover would    
roar like  ,niagara1 and all ,kent1 and 
the low-lying north-east corner of      
,france1  would be devastated4 ,the     
isthmus of ,panama might at the same    
time  be swept away1 for the narrow     
banks of the completed ,panama ,canal   
would certainly give way before the     
weight of the two oceans4 ,all  the     
rivers of the world would rush down in  
spate until they ran  nearly dry from   
the increased outfall4 ,the sea would   
recede from  all the coasts4 ,along with
 this fall in the level of the sea would
  come tempests such as1 since the      
appearance of man on the planet1  the   
world has never known4 ,for the         
sea-supported atmosphere would  suck    
into its vacuum the whole weight of the 
over-lying air until  pressure was      
equalised4 ,and the climate of all the  
world would be  reconstituted in new and
 probably inconvenient ways4    ,no4 ,we

 cannot venture thus to change the face 
of creation4 ,what we can  and shall do 
is to make the best of it4 ,in a hundred
 years' time many  countries at present 
undeveloped will be rich and populous4  
,canada1 for  one example1 has an area  
greater than that of the ,united        
,states1 with a  population smaller than
 the population of ,greater ,london4    
,and ,canada1  endowed as it is with    
almost every source of wealth1 will     
before long  become perhaps the richest 
country in the world4 ,by this time next
  century it will also be one of the    
most populous4 ,siberia1 again1  with   
many fertile and salubrious tracts1 will
 certainly have been more  intelligently
 utilised than by making a vast prison  
of it4 ,but when  all the regions       
available for human habitation are      
populated and made  use of1 the centres 
of civilisation will probably lie very  
much where  they lie now2 and here the  
congested populations will have found   
that  they can no longer tolerate the   

waste of a neglected ocean4 ,as we push 
outward from the centre of the          
continents1 the seaboard will have to   
be utilised and extended4 ,there is     
nothing to daunt the engineers of  a    
hundred years hence in the project of   
erecting on the sea a vast  floating    
city1 fully as convenient as the present
 cities of terra  firma1 and1 while     
vastly more healthful1 quite substantial
 enough to  resist storm and every      
motion of the sea1 except the tides on  
which  the city will rise and           
fall--tides which will no doubt furnish 
the  motive power of many conveniences  
in ocean cities4    ,there are great    
advantages in a city thus founded1 as   
compared with  those we at present      
inhabit2 and we certainly shall not be  
able to  neglect them4 ,there will be no
 particular reason for economy of space 
or for insalubrious overcrowding 7since 
the sea has no landlord71 and  breadth  
would make for stability as well as for 
convenience4 ,urban  traffic will employ

 an entirely new light vehicle1 the     
skimmer4 ,it  has been mentioned as a   
thing beyond doubt that the ships of a  
hundred  years hence will no longer     
float in the sea1 but ride on its       
surface1  thus evading both the         
instability and the resistance at       
present so  troublesome to marine       
engineers4 ,as soon as the necessity    
arises  for providing street traffic in 
the ocean city--when the sea is in  the 
broad1 the narrow streets1 ebbing and   
flowing1 and the salt weed  clings to   
the marble of her palaces--invention    
will meet the demand1  and light street 
waggons and carriages will everywhere   
glide about1  performing the daily needs
 of the inhabitants4 ,something in the  
nature  of break-waters will provide    
against wave-play and form an unequalled
  exterior boulevard2 and by means of an
 invention which will long  since have  
been called for by the requirements of  
other localities1  the air of           
dwelling-houses in the ocean city will  

be wholesomely  freed from damp4    ,for
 we shall certainly not have failed to  
act upon our knowledge of  the fact that
 irregularities in the proportion of    
atmospheric moisture  are responsible   
for the unhealthiness of certain areas2 
and we shall  have learned1 by means of 
the anhydrator1 to provide any place    
with  exactly the degree of damp or     
dryness necessary to health4 ,the same  
apparatus1 by desiccating the air to the
 extreme point1 will keep  the houses of
 an ocean city dry and thus do away with
 an objection  which would make homes   
built on the water insufferable to-day4 
,if we have not wholly reformed         
throughout the world our system of  land
 tenure1 the conquered ocean will       
unquestionably relieve the  tension     
which is created by it1 and perhaps a   
radical change of this  character will  
only become possible when the enormous  
advantages of  it have been practically 
exemplified4    ,but there is another   
way in which the conquest of ocean ought

 to prove  a great economic boon to the 
world4 ,except in the case of a few coal
  mines1 with shafts sunk near the sea  
beach1 we have hardly at all begun  to  
investigate the contents of the ocean   
floor4 ,there is1 so far as ,i  am      
aware1 no particular reason to doubt    
that the constitution of the            
subterranean world is in most respects  
very much the same under the  sea as    
under the land4 ,probably vast riches1  
as yet undreamed of1 lie  below the     
surface of the ocean and beneath its    
floor4 ,there can be no  question that  
the needs of the world will make us     
eager to tap them1  as we should already
 have begun to1 if any way could be     
discovered of  overcoming the           
engineering difficulties involved4      
,these difficulties1  in the present    
state of our knowledge1 may well appal  
the stoutest  imagination4 ,the problem 
presented by the immense and paralysing 
air  pressure in a mine at this great   
depth would have to be overcome4 ,even  

in some great terrestrial excavations   
already made the problem occurs3  and   
where 7as in river tunnels and          
elsewhere7 men attempt to work  in great
 air-pressures artificially induced1 the
 phenomenon called  caisson-disease     
occasions practical difficulty4 ,but the
 mere fact of  an achievement being     
almost inconceivable in the light of    
present  knowledge and invention must   
not be allowed to put a clog upon a     
forecast of what next century may       
attain4 ,it is a hypothesis which  the  
reader has been invited to accept1 not  
merely that discovery and  invention    
will go on1 but that they will go at a  
constantly-increasing  pace4 ,we must   
not1 therefore1 allow what may well     
seem1 at the  present day1 insuperable  
engineering difficulties to forbid the  
belief that the undiscovered wealth of  
the earth below the sea will be  tapped 
for the benefit of the new age4 ,what   
minerals may lie there1  a rich heirloom
 for the coming time1 we can but roughly

 imagine4 ,but  enterprise and the      
world's necessities will spur us on to  
search them  out1 until the new people1 
deriving like a fresh ,antus constant   
stores of strength from ,mother ,earth1 
will enter into possessions  which must 
vastly relieve their necessities4       
,individual enterprise  will solve the  
problems and reap its store of profits4 
,but the ocean  is no-man's land1 and   
the people--perhaps a world-people1 for 
this  purpose at least not subdivided   
into antagonistic communities--will     
beyond doubt take toll1 for the relief  
of general taxation1 from the  earnings 
of the new mineralogy4    ,in other     
ways1 too1 the sea itself will be made  
use of4 ,we shall get  our salt from it1
 the process of separation being        
electrolytic4 ,fish  will probably be   
eaten later than any other form of      
animal food4 ,but  the chief gift of the
 sea to the life of the future will be  
the two  gases of which water is        
composed--oxygen and hydrogen3 and the  

other  gas1 chlorine1 which forms half  
the salt1 as well as the metal sodium   
which forms the other half1 will        
probably have many new uses found for   
them4 ,liquefied oxygen will no doubt be
 our sole disinfectant4 ,it will  also  
replace the poisonous1 noisome and      
destructive bleaching agents  used      
to-day4 ,hydrogen1 the lightest of all  
gases1 will be another  staple of       
commerce4 ,it will 7as we have elsewhere
 seen7 probably be  the only fuel       
employed1 for its combustion furnishes  
the greatest  heat terrestrially known1 
and its flame is smokeless and yields no
  poisonous by-product4 ,moreover1 the  
evaporation of liquid hydrogen1  by a   
sort of curious revenge1 produces the   
greatest available cold4 ,if  anything  
in the nature of balloons should survive
 the century hydrogen  will inflate     
them1 and both our hydrogen and our     
oxygen will most  likely be got by      
preference from the sea4 ,there are many
 reasons for  this preference4 ,probably

 there will be some advantage in the    
matter  of expense1 since the salts of  
ocean water would be a by-product  of   
the operation1 and it is conceivable    
that a use may be found for  the rarer  
among them1 which could only be obtained
 in satisfactory  quantities by reducing
 to dryness huge amounts of water4 ,and 
potable or  spring waters will perhaps  
be too precious a commodity to be       
consumed  unnecessarily4 ,distilled     
water could no doubt be used for        
drinking  purposes1 and                 
bacteriologically it is of course       
unexceptionable2 but  there are certain 
objections to it1 and though these may  
doubtless  be overcome1 natural waters  
have a value which cannot be ignored4   
,thus the oceans of the world1 as yet   
mere watery deserts1 useful  to hardly a
 calculable percentage of the people    
7and then only at  the expense of the   
rest7 will have become the world's      
inheritance1  and its hoarded wealth    
will stave off the time--whose coming we

 must  not ignore--when our             
world-capital begins to be exhausted4   
,for that  time must come4 ,we are      
living upon the hoards which the womb of
 our  mother the earth has borne to our 
father the sun4 ,but our mother is1  in 
respect at all events of mineral wealth1
 past the age of conception2  and every 
century brings us more rapidly near to  
the time when we  shall1 like           
spendthrifts1 have lived out our        
capital4 ,already the end  of coal is in
 sight4 ,when1 at the end of a vista    
however long1 we begin  to be able to   
foresee the exhaustion of other         
minerals1 we shall face  a problem      
appalling in its nature4 ,perhaps before
 our store of heat  gives out and       
reduces earth to the state of a dead    
world like the moon1  we shall already  
have exhausted our stock4 ,no economies 
in the use of  scrap metal and the      
re-employment of the material of        
machines which  have been superseded can
 save us from ultimate metallic         

bankruptcy  in a future calculated      
perhaps in thousands 7but not many      
thousands7  of years4 ,our only succour 
seems to lie in a conception for which  
7despite the efforts of some lively     
thinkers who have been obliged  to      
ignore all but the least important      
difficulties of the subject7 we  have no
 material--the conception of means by   
which the cold depths of  interplanetary
 space may be traversed4 ,even if we    
allow imagination1  untrammelled by the 
most evident necessities of the case1 to
 suggest  a speed of transport          
computable only by astronomical         
analogies1 we  still lag behind anything
 which could serve this purpose1 unless 
we  concurrently believe that human life
 shall1 by that time1 be lengthened     
into centuries4 ,otherwise1 however     
recklessly we may conceive of speed  in 
interplanetary travel1 man would almost 
require to live for many  centuries in  
order to reach and return from any      
destination which  would not inevitably 

destroy him by fire or cold when he     
arrived at  it4 ,most likely man is for 
ever destined to accept the bounds of   
his  own planet1 and to be limited by   
its resources4 ,in order that these     
resources may be utilised to the        
uttermost of his needs1 the contents  of
 the ocean floor must undoubtedly be    
laid under contribution1 and  probably  
we shall not antedate this achievement  
if we consider that  it will have been  
at least entered upon a hundred years   
hence4                ,,chapter ,,vii   
,,the ,,march ,,of ,,science      ,in a 
forecast like the present it is         
impossible to avoid a certain  amount of
 overlapping in different sections of   
the subject and  a certain blending of  
topics in a single chapter4 ,the attempt
 to  differentiate consistently between 
the progress of science as science1  and
 the concurrent advance of practical    
invention by which scientific  discovery
 is turned to use would only involve    
needless repetition4 ,i  have already   

had occasion to suggest elements of     
material progress  which presuppose the 
advance in pure science that would make 
them  possible4 ,thus1 in endeavouring  
to suggest what the methods of commerce 
and the condition of our cities are     
likely to be in the future it  was      
necessary to conceive certain advances  
in our knowledge of what  is rather     
clumsily called wireless telegraphy1 and
 to predict  the discovery of new and   
cheap methods of analysing water into   
its  component gases as a source of fuel
 and as means for the production  of    
electricity3 and in order to avoid      
useless repetition it was found         
convenient to work out in a rough manner
 the various ways in which the  cheap   
and inexhaustible supplies of hydrogen  
and oxygen which ,i have  imagined      
discovery to have placed at the disposal
 of invention would  be employed in the 
arts4 ,similarly1 when we interrogate   
imagination  on the subject of          
scientific discovery itself1 we shall be

 forced to  think chiefly of the        
practical results likely to be achieved 
by it1  and indeed there would otherwise
 be hardly any purpose to serve by  the 
effort4 ,what imports the greatest      
amount of complexity into the  subject  
is the difficulty of conceiving the     
lines upon which science  is likely to  
travel1 unless we allow ourselves to be 
guided by the  practical requirements of
 the future as far as we are able to    
foresee  them4 ,imagination has indeed  
superabundant room in which to run riot 
when it endeavours to give form to the  
probabilities of scientific  discovery2 
and the only danger is that effort may  
be wasted in purely  fanciful           
directions1 if it be not pretty securely
 tied down by some  such artificial     
restraint as the convention of keeping  
more or less  strictly to the           
anticipation of discoveries likely to   
have immediate  practical application4  
,for instance1 there is hardly any end  
to the developments we might  allow     

ourselves to imagine as arising out of  
the new theories1 still in  a           
probationary condition1 as to the       
ultimate physical structure of the      
universe4 ,such conjectures might be    
followed indefinitely in several        
directions1 and the resulting           
conclusions would be more likely to  err
 by timidity than by extravagance3 but  
as there is no knowledge at  present    
available which could serve as a guide  
to the probably-right1  and as a warning
 against the probably-wrong1 directions1
 it would be  neither interesting nor   
useful to pursue them4 ,radium the      
revealer1  as ,dr ,saleeby has called it
 in one of those brilliant papers which 
fine imagination and delicate fancy have
 adorned with many another  noble phrase
 and memorable image1 opens the door to 
a whole world of  new possibilities4    
,our whole conception of cosmic         
processes may have  to be remodelled1 in
 the light of those tiny scintillations 
which the  spinthariscope has           

popularised4 ,already our notions       
concerning the  nature of matter have   
been revolutionised4 ,we are told that  
atoms1  regarded hitherto as the        
ultimate units of matter--so small that 
,lord  ,kelvin has calculated that if a 
drop of water were magnified to the     
size of the earth the atoms in it would 
be somewhere between the size  of small 
shot and the size of cricket balls--are 
themselves made up  of a stuff so almost
 infinitely more tenuous1 that the      
particles of  it within the atom are1   
relatively to their size1 farther apart 
than  the planets of the solar system4  
,nor is this all4 ,these particles1     
commonly called electrons1 if particles 
they can still be designated at  all1   
were at first said to carry a charge of 
electricity4 ,but it now  seems that    
they are electricity itself4 ,if this be
 true1 we should seem  to be on the     
point of bridging the void between what 
used to be called  the eternal          
antithetics--matter and force3 and      

whither this will lead  us can only with
 the greatest caution be pre-imagined4  
,in any case the  consequences of this  
discovery1 philosophical as well as     
scientific1  are stupefying in the      
possibilities they open up to the       
thinker as  well as to the man of       
practical science4 ,at last science     
begins to join  hands with philosophy4  
,what will be the philosophy of a       
hundred years  hence1 imagination pales 
before the effort of attempting to      
conceive4    ,but the working out of the
 revelations promised by radiology      
belongs  rather to this end of the      
century than to the other4 ,during the  
interval there can be no doubt that     
electricity1 already man's chief        
handmaid1 will have increased and       
perhaps completed her services  to the  
race4 ,when1 as ,i ventured to suggest  
in a former chapter1  inexhaustible and 
cheap current is yielded to us by some  
method  of utilising the electrical     
reciprocity of the hydrogen and oxygen  

gases derived from water1 doubtless all 
machinery will be electrically  driven1 
all transport electrically propelled4   
,perhaps this discovery  lies so far in 
the foreground of the future as to be   
irrelevant to any  anticipations of the 
world's condition a hundred years hence4
 ,the  full development of              
electrically-driven machinery lies in   
the  middle distance1 and the duration  
of the electrical age can hardly  be    
precalculated with any greater exactness
 than the suggestion that  it will      
probably have reached1 or at all events 
approached1 its end  in about a         
century's time4    ,the most important  
problem connected with this subject is  
to  imagine1 if we can1 how electrical  
power will be applied4 ,it is quite     
evident that the device of long         
conductors1 either overhead or below    
ground--the live wires of alarmed       
,america--is too clumsy and too         
dangerous to be long tolerated4 ,it is  
indeed a public scandal that  cables    

carrying an electrical charge capable of
 killing or paralysing  at a touch      
should be suspended over the heads of   
the citizens1 exposed  to momentary     
breakage by snowfall1 high wind1 or the 
inevitable  wear which careless         
inspectors may overlook3 and the mere   
fact that  a horse can occasionally set 
foot on a ground plate and fall dead    
from the contact shows that even the    
vaunted conduit system must  not be     
regarded as anything but a              
strictly-temporary device4 ,some of  the
 dangers of the underground electric    
wires arise out of the use  of our      
present illuminating gas1 when a pipe   
leaks into a manhole  or inspection     
chamber1 forming an explosive mixture of
 gas and air1  which presently becomes  
ignited by an electric spark and blows  
up the  whole affair4 ,no doubt coal gas
 is within easily measurable distance   
of its end as a convenience of          
civilisation4 ,but it is extremely      
probable that hydrogen and oxygen will  

be conveyed by mains to houses  and     
public buildings during a long time3 and
 it is hardly possible  to believe that 
the mains will not sometimes leak and be
 capable of  letting out mixtures far   
more dangerous on ignition than the     
mixture  of coal gas and air1 and still 
more dangerous because neither of the   
gases1 nor the mixture of them1 has any 
smell1 unless indeed we should  take the
 precaution of giving them one          
artificially4 ,whatever we may  do1 and 
we shall do much1 to minimise the       
dangers of highly-evolved  civilisation1
 accidents will always occur1 and their 
violence will  probably increase4 ,we   
must pay our toll to the conveniences of
 life1  and we shall of course          
compensate ourselves by a lower         
death-rate  from diseases1 many of which
 will no doubt in a hundred years' time 
have disappeared from the planet4    ,if
 we need any motive power other than    
electricity1 or if we need  motive power
 of some other kind to produce          

electricity1 no doubt  the explosive    
recombination of oxygen and hydrogen1   
controlled by  devices developed from   
existing gas-engines and petrol-engines1
 will  be a starting-point3 because coal
 will1 probably before the complete     
exhaustion of the supply of it1 have    
been found altogether too dirty  and    
unhealthy a thing to use1 at all events 
by way of combustion1  though rumours   
are heard from time to time of new      
methods by which  the stored energy of  
coal may be utilised directly1 to the   
great  economy of the material4 #ac ,in 
all sorts of ways the early years of    
the century will be employing themselves
 in seeking out new sources  of man's   
chief necessity--power3 and a hundred   
years hence we shall  have entered upon 
the full inheritance of them4    ,but   
the obtaining of power is only one      
problem of the mechanician4 ,of  almost 
equal1 if not quite equal1 importance is
 that of applying power  at the place   
where it is needed1 and the careful     

reader will not have  overlooked the    
fact that while we have been discussing 
the use of  electricity as a source of  
power we have already been anticipating1
  and perhaps anticipating a good deal4 
,for1 when we now speak of  machinery   
and locomotive engines being driven by  
electricity1 we  are really only        
employing a sort of convenient          
periphrasis4 ,all our  electric         
machinery1 all our electric railways1   
our tuppeny tubes  and the horrible     
electric trams which make life almost   
intolerable in  houses along many of the
 main roads out of ,london1 are really  
driven by  coal-burning steam engines4  
,in a few places 7especially in the     
,niagara  valley7 waterfall power is    
used4 ,but whatever the real source of  
power1  electricity is only a means1    
more or less convenient1 of transmitting
  it4 ,even electric launches1 and      
slow-going electric broughams driven  by
 accumulators1 only represent slightly  
more subtle examples of the  electrical 

transmission of power4 ,the ultimate    
source of power is  always either a     
steam-engine or a waterfall4 ,a few     
lecture-table toys  and the like are the
 only existing examples of machinery in 
which the  actual source of power is    
electricity4 ,even here1 it may be      
objected1  the actual source of power is
 not electricity1 but chemical action   
in the battery4 ,but no contrivance of  
man is an ultimate source of  power4    
,even a steam-engine is only a device   
for utilising the stored  solar energy  
of coal4 ,of course man can no more     
create power than  he can create matter3
 the stock of each in the universe is a 
fixed  quantity4 ,all that we are able  
to do is to harness to our use a part   
of the cosmic store4 ,when ,i speak of  
electricity becoming hereafter  a source
 of power1 ,i am merely distinguishing  
between its use as  a means of          
transmitting force already perceived as 
force in some  other form 7as where a   
dynamo-electric machine receives motion 

from  a steam-engine or waterfall and   
turns this motion into electricity1     
which is conveyed by wires or rails to  
an electric dynamic engine  that        
reconverts it into motion7 and its use  
as a primary means of  utilising the    
cosmic stores of force4    ,before we   
arrive1 therefore1 at the point of using
 electricity as  a source of power in   
itself1 our mechanicians will have      
plenty to  occupy them in the task of   
devising safer and more convenient      
methods  of transmitting force1 and even
 at the end of the century1 supposing   
the use of electricity not to have been 
entirely superseded by the  discovery of
 some entirely new force as yet not even
 conceivable1  invention will doubtless 
be still busy with further improvements 
in  the transmission as well as in the  
production of electricity4 ,it has  been
 hinted that wireless transmission of   
power will no doubt by  that time have  
become practicable1 and ,signor         
,marconi's achievement  of wireless     

telegraphy was mentioned as a proof that
 such transmission  is at least         
imaginable4 ,in ,marconi's invention an 
enormous electrical  impulse is launched
 into the ther1 and if the very smallest
 token  of it can be picked up in any   
way at the receiving station1 the       
wireless telegram is satisfactorily     
received4 ,but the important fact  for  
our present purpose is that some product
 of the original impulse  can be picked 
up3 and though the effort of imagination
 required to  see in this a             
starting-point for entirely new         
inventions1 capable  of gathering up a  
practicable modicum of the transmitted  
power in  a form capable of being       
converted into motion1 is severe1 we    
shall  bring but a poor imaginative     
equipment to a task so colossal as that 
of guessing what the next century will  
be capable of if we refuse to  believe  
that something in the nature of         
,hertzian waves1 or something           
propagated as these are propagated1 can 

be used to carry impulse to  machinery  
at a distance from the source of power4 
,the imaginative  faculty which boggles 
at this effort will probably overlook   
the fact  that the mere transmission is 
only a part of the difficulty which  is 
pretty sure to have been overcome by    
this time next century4 ,it  will not be
 enough to launch waves capable of being
 used where they  are intended to be    
used4 ,we must also discover how to     
launch them  so that they may be        
incapable of being used anywhere else4  
,i read  the other day the report of a  
police-court case in which a man was    
charged with stealing electricity 7which
 seems a rather doubtful  indictment    
from the point of view of the lawyer7 by
 obtaining the  use of a public         
telephone station without paying the    
usual fee4 ,the  electricians of a      
hundred years hence will certainly have 
to find  out how to prevent the         
purloining of wireless force1 and       
perhaps the  police will have to devise 

means of detecting this at present      
somewhat  recondite crime4 ,this        
question of wireless transmission lies  
within  the province of discovery rather
 than that of invention4 ,before it can 
receive actuality we have to do more    
than utilise existing knowledge3  we    
have to acquire new knowledge4    ,in   
the meantime1 portable energy will no   
doubt be achieved in ways  other than   
electrical4 ,some very interesting      
compressed-air tools are  already in    
limited use4 ,holes are drilled and     
rivets driven by little  contrivances   
which have a store of force within      
themselves furnished by  compressed air4
 ,one of the many uses of the cheap     
oxygen and hydrogen1  and doubtless of  
cheaply liquefied gases of              
high-resisting power1 #ad  will no doubt
 be to work various kinds of machinery4 
,this use of liquid  airs has been much 
derided1 and indeed a good deal of      
nonsense has been  written as to its    
possibilities1 drawing from a recent and

 accomplished  writer the remark that   
,the statements which have sometimes    
appeared  in the daily papers1          
announcing impending revolutions in the 
methods of  obtaining cheap power by the
 application of liquid air1 have        
originated  from an imperfect           
comprehension of the problems involved4 
#ae    ,in present conditions1 and so   
far as we are able to see at present1   
liquefied gases are for a long time not 
likely to serve any greater  mechanical 
purpose than that of furnishing a highly
 portable apparatus  by which great     
power can be developed for a short time 
at any required  place4 ,it is easy to  
believe that it could not be otherwise  
employed  with any economy1 even when   
discovery has greatly simplified the now
  difficult process of liquefaction4    
,but in regard to this matter1 and  to  
almost every other mechanical and       
engineering improvement suggested  in   
the present work1 it is of the first    
importance to remember that  the        

conditions in which the work of the     
world a hundred years hence  will be    
done are certain to differ very greatly 
from anything we know  to-day2 and that 
procedures at present not merely out of 
proportion1  but in themselves actually 
chimerical1 will become perfectly       
workable  in the new circumstances of   
another century4 ,no doubt the problems 
at  present involved make many of the   
developments herein suggested almost    
laughable to those who examine the      
subject without imagination4 ,but  what 
could have been thought of a man who1   
when ,oersted discovered the  influence 
of a battery current on the compass     
needle1 suggested that  the discovery   
might1 in much less than a hundred      
years1 be practically  developed in such
 unforeseen ways as to produce          
locomotive machines  capable of carrying
 vast weight at a speed of perhaps a    
hundred  miles an hour8 ,he would have  
been told that such predictions could   
only have originated from an imperfect  

comprehension of the problems  involved4
 ,but we know that they would have been 
perfectly sound1  though it would have  
been difficult to withhold assent from  
the  derision which instructed hearers  
would have poured upon them4 ,the       
effect of any scientific discovery can  
only be measured when we are in  a      
position to judge of the conditions in  
which it may be applied1 and  the       
further discoveries which may affect    
it--a consideration which will  help us 
against the danger of undue caution in  
estimating the possible  developments of
 recent discovery when utilised in the  
conditions of the  next century and     
reinforced by inventions and discoveries
 yet to come4    ,a like caution will1  
however1 teach us to restrain our       
expectations  from the new knowledge    
which radium appears to be gradually    
unfolding1  not because there is any    
doubt that radio-activity will          
ultimately  bring priceless gifts to    
civilisation1 but because in our present

  ignorance of all but a few facts      
concerning it we can form no possible   
conjecture as to the lines these gifts  
will follow4 ,already we seem  to have  
seen in some of the radium experiments  
one element turn into  another4 ,if this
 should develop until we acquire the    
power which used  to be dreamed of as   
transmutation1 the social and economic  
upheavals  which would result beggar    
imagination4 #af    ,the photographic   
effect of ,rntgen rays has already #ag  
been  the subject of a suggestion1 and  
even the facts now remotest from        
practical use in connection with the    
rays of various sorts so much  discussed
 in the scientific newspapers will no   
doubt be utilised in  a manner or in    
manners far removed from the limited    
employment in  therapeutics already     
found for them4    ,and indeed medicine1
 not the most progressive of modern     
sciences1  will no doubt make vast      
strides during the period under         
discussion4    ,it would be altogether  

fallacious to forecast the position and 
probable achievements of medical science
 in a century's time on the  line of    
simple development from the practice of 
to-day4 ,the changes  will be           
revolutionary rather than evolutionary4 
,when it is remembered  that only fifty 
years ago limbs were hacked from the    
quivering flesh  of the sentient        
patient1 held down by muscular          
assistants lest the  violent struggles  
of his agony should embarrass the       
surgeon1 and that  wounds of all sorts  
festered and decayed until a hospital   
reeked  with their impurity--in other   
words1 that discoveries so great as     
ansthesia and antisepsis are well within
 living memory--we need not  hesitate to
 predict for the present century changes
 in medical and  surgical science almost
 inconceivable by the light of our      
present  attainment4 ,ansthetics--of    
which the local kinds1 as cocaine and   
eucaine1 are of entirely recent         
use--represent an advance in one        

direction4 ,antiseptic surgery1 which is
 the prevention and correction  of blood
 and wound-poisoning by chemical        
disinfectants1 represented an  advance  
of a different kind4 ,but antisepsis is 
already on the point  of being          
superseded by the far more rational and 
scientific method  of asepsis1 or the   
exclusion from open wounds of all the   
germs which  can set up inflammation and
 festering4 ,the change is typical4     
,the direction in which medicine is     
chiefly working at the present  time is 
that of introducing into the body one   
disease with the  idea of excluding     
other diseases4 ,it is conceived that   
cow-pox  is antagonistic to small-pox1  
erysipelas possibly to cancer1 and  so  
on4 ,all the talk in medical circles is 
of serum and attenuated  virus4 ,and1   
apart from animal products administered 
by injection1 we  cure or attempt to    
cure all diseases by administering      
poisons--animal1  vegetable or mineral4 
,just as by antiseptics we poison the   

germ which  causes festering and        
inflammation1 so by drugs we attempt to 
poison  disease--for all drugs are      
practically poisons4 ,the principle of  
their  administration is almost wholly  
empirical4 ,if you ask a doctor why     
phenacetin reduces fever1 it is         
impossible to get beyond a metaphysical 
explanation4 ,he will reply that        
phenacetin reduces fever by lowering    
the blood pressure1 or something of that
 kind4 ,but this merely  re-states the  
problem4 ,why does phenacetin lower     
blood pressure8 ,we  do not know4 ,the  
substitution of asepsis for             
antisepsis--that is1  of cleanliness for
 disinfection--has hardly yet been      
perceived  to be in a certain sense the 
greatest advance in therapeutics  since 
,hippocrates4 ,it probably contains the 
germ of future medical  treatment4      
,hereafter we shall not try to cast out 
devils of disease  by other             
disease-germs only less devilish4 ,we   
shall learn enough of  the causes of    

disease to stop them at their source1   
and knowledge  growing from more to     
more1 which has taught us exactly how   
matter  in the wrong place--of whatever 
sort--is the source of all disease1     
will also show how matter may generally 
be kept in its right place4    ,although
 comparatively little progress has been 
made by the curative  use of rays1 other
 discoveries1 of which we have even now 
passed the  brink1 will have an enormous
 effect on medicine and surgery4        
,already  certain kinds of light cure   
rodent ulcer1 one of the most hideous   
and  terrible diseases1 not by the      
importation of fresh substances into the
  body but by the modification of the   
tissues themselves4 ,when radiation  has
 been fully studied it will almost      
certainly be found that the  sun1 which 
is the source of practically all        
terrestrial activity1  has been         
showering upon us1 ever since the       
homogeneous vapour which  was the       
birth-stuff of the universe aggregated  

itself into worlds and  suns and        
planets1 rays which are capable of      
correcting every sort of                
disease-germination and1 properly used1 
of preventing it4 ,the absolute         
deadliness of unmodified sunlight to    
many sorts of disease-germs is          
recognised already4 ,the value of       
sun-baths--the exposure of the whole    
body1 undraped or only lightly covered1 
to the sunlight--is already  discussed  
in connection with anmia1 chlorosis and 
the early stages  of consumption4 ,when 
we know just where all disease          
originates1  and why it develops1 it    
seems likely that sunlight and oxygen   
its  child will prevent nearly all      
disease and cure whatever disease       
accidentally arises4 ,in place of       
temporary and dangerous expedients  like
 antiseptics1 serum and corrective      
poisons1 we shall import nothing  into  
the human organism1 but only exclude    
what ought to be kept out1  and modify  
into innocuousness what has found its   

way in4    ,a great part of the disease 
we call constitutional1 as distinguished
  from infective1 arises from food1     
either because the food itself is  not  
free from disease1 or because1 from     
excess in quantity or error  in choice1 
the food we take sets up the production 
of poisons in the  course of digestion1 
and by yielding1 for instance1 lactic or
 uric  acid to the blood causes         
rheumatism or gout1 or by introducing   
into  the stomach matter in a state of  
incipient decay1 favours typhoid  and   
other fevers4    ,when1 for reasons     
already indicated1 animal food has been 
eliminated  from the menu one great     
source of disease will have been got rid
 of4    ,when we completely understand  
the nature of the infective and         
contagious diseases it seems well within
 the bounds of possibility  that the    
systematic destruction of their germs   
may be carried far  enough to remove    
them altogether from the planet4 #ah ,we
 have now1  even by the highly imperfect

 measure of quarantine and a period  of 
muzzling 7from which1 on no evident     
ground except that it would  interfere  
with the amusements of the governing    
class to include them1  sporting dogs   
were excluded71 apparently banished     
hydrophobia from  ,great ,britain4 ,if  
it prove to be the case that just as    
hydrophobia  cannot arise spontaneously1
 but requires to be started by the entry
  into the blood of an animal of an     
existing infection1 other infective     
diseases require pre-existing disease   
before they can arise1 we may  get rid  
of them altogether4 ,the dream may      
appear a wild one4 ,but  it is not      
wilder than the dreams of a thinker who 
anticipated any  one of a hundred common
 facts of to-day must have appeared to  
our  great-great-grandfathers4    ,it   
is1 of course1 not to be supposed that  
disease can altogether be  banished from
 a world so highly artificial as that of
 the next century  will be4 ,undoubtedly
 the growth of sanitary science and the 

knowledge  of the larger facts of       
hygiene1 which is only now beginning to 
dawn  upon us1 will have a great        
influence in correcting some of the     
evils  which over-civilisation at       
present entails4 ,but the very progress 
of  the art of healing will no doubt    
have the effect of perpetuating in a    
manner the existence of illness4 ,every 
forward step in medicine serves  to save
 alive some weakling that in a less     
advanced civilisation would  die2 and   
these survivors1 possibly propagating   
their species1 will have  weak          
descendants1 on whom whatever           
possibility of disease continues  to    
exist will certainly fasten4 ,the       
discovery of means by which we  can make
 a weak constitution into a strong one  
is perhaps the least  likely of medical 
innovations4 ,it would be altogether    
contrary to the  general spirit of the  
times anticipated to expect that we     
shall have  steeled our hearts to the   
destruction of feeble lives as dangerous

  to the race4 ,we are much more likely 
to go on finding better means  to       
perpetuate them3 and this means that    
there will always be work for  the      
doctor1 though the infective fevers will
 have been banished from  the earth4    
,medicine1 therefore1 will still aspire4
 ,but apart from  what are called       
occupation-diseases1 caused by certain  
manufacturing  processes 7of which the  
more deadly1 as phosphorus match-making1
  lead-glazing of earthenware and the   
manufacture of enamelled iron  will     
before long certainly be abolished71 the
 elaborate machinery  and rapid travel  
of the new age must needs exact a       
certain toll  of death and mutilation4  
,the surgeon will have more to do than  
the  physician4 ,frightful accidents    
will occur from time to time4 ,the maim1
  the halt and the blind must pay the   
price of progress4 ,and it is hardly    
possible that nervous diseases and      
insanity1 incident to the pressure  of  
civilisation1 can be eliminated4 ,but   

certainly the alleviations of  all but  
the last1 and even of that except in its
 extreme expression  as total dementia1 
will have advanced to a high standard4  
,we shall  no doubt1 for instance1 have 
discovered means of so acting on the    
sensory system that we shall be able    
innocuously and temporarily to  paralyse
 at any desired spot the nerves which   
transmit pain4 ,thus1  during           
convalescence1 the injured will suffer  
no discomfort except  that of           
confinement1 and our means of amusing   
the patient by talking  machines that   
will read and sing to him1 and the      
theatroscopes that  will project before 
him moving and coloured pictures of life
 or the  play1 will make the sick bed   
almost a paradise4    ,as we have seen  
that1 apart from the sentimental reasons
 which have  been suggested1 #ai animal 
and flesh foods must1 for economical    
reasons1 have been abandoned long before
 the end of the century1 the  grazing of
 cattle being far too expensive a method

 of utilising the  soil1 we may be quite
 sure that the sciences connected with  
agriculture  will receive far greater   
attention than they now enjoy4 ,it will 
grow  more important with every decade  
to obtain the greatest possible  tribute
 from the portions of land1 steadily    
decreasing in area1  which can be spared
 from the growing needs of the builder4 
,every  discovery of the chemist which  
can be laid under contribution by the   
agriculturist will eagerly be seized    
upon4 ,every means which can be  devised
 for replacing what we take from the    
soil will be utilised  to the full3 and 
of course the inevitable disappearance  
of the horse  as a means of traction1   
and of the flocks and herds which now   
yield  manure1 and perhaps the gradual  
exhaustion of the minerals 7as rock     
phosphates7 from which artificial soil  
enrichers are prepared1 will  make it   
necessary to rearrange1 on safe1        
economical and convenient  lines1 our   
present plans of sanitation4 ,the insane

 wastefulness of  draining into the sea 
cannot long be tolerated4 ,every        
conceivable means  of conserving our    
mundane capital will have to be made use
 of4 ,in  other ways science will come  
to the rescue4 ,the farmer's sufferings 
from the depredations of vermin of      
various kinds will perhaps never  be    
much affected by invention1 because all 
nature is so curiously  interdependent  
that the eradication of one pest has an 
awkward way  of intensifying some       
greater evil3 we destroy birds and are  
punished  by a plague of caterpillars4  
,the accidents of climate1 too1 can     
perhaps only be obviated in a very small
 measure1 though the science  of        
meteorology1 constantly being helped by 
facilities for better                   
observation-reporting1 will             
unquestionably help the agriculturist   
by giving him timely warnings4 ,it seems
 hardly possible to doubt  that the     
eccentricities of climate and the       
unexpected shifting of the  rainy season

 in ,manchuria during the               
,russo-,japanese war must have been     
caused by the vast atmospheric          
disturbances created by days and weeks  
of cannonading3 and of course it is an  
old theory that heavy gun-fire  brings  
down the rain4 ,military historians say 
that the number of  wet-day battles     
altogether exceeds any expectation which
 could have  been formed without        
allowing for effects of this sort4 ,when
 science  has pondered upon the subject1
 and instituted in an ordered manner    
experiments of a kind hitherto never    
taken very seriously1 it may  very well 
be that some means less violent than the
 detonation of  explosives may be       
discovered by the practical             
meteorologist for  creating disturbances
 in the atmosphere2 and while it may not
 be  possible to prevent excessive      
rainfall at inconvenient times1 it      
seems easy to conceive that when there  
is moisture in the atmosphere  we may be
 able to bring it down as rain4 ,of     

course this is a very  different thing  
from breaking up droughts3 and          
artificial rain-making  cannot in itself
 be anything but a momentary expedient4 
,the effects  of deforestation have for 
some time been observed and the plan  of
 improving waterless areas by the       
contrary process is already  discussed4 
,while it seems rather a large order to 
undertake to  meddle with the balance of
 atmospheric composition on a large     
scale1  especially as we know so little 
of the conditions that even success     
might very possibly be attended by      
unforeseen and perhaps calamitous       
results1 there is nothing intrinsically 
absurd in the notion that we  might     
adopt means on a vast scale for         
increasing oceanic evaporation  and1    
utilising the exact foreknowledge of    
winds and air currents  which we shall  
certainly have achieved1 bring moisture 
and rain to  arid tracts or countries   
suffering from drought4 ,the operation  
would  no doubt require to be           

stupendous1 but the next century is not 
going  to be afraid of stupendous       
operations2 and anticipating vast and   
unforeseen progress in meteorology1 it  
would be hazardous to believe  that no  
practical use will be made of such      
progress4    ,while our knowledge and   
mastery of the planet we possess1 and of
 its  forces1 are being steadily        
advanced by scientific discovery1 and   
the  researches of the pure scientist   
are constantly yielding practical       
results at first undreamed of1 it is    
impossible to doubt that man's          
knowledge of himself will make equal    
progress4 ,and it is not alone the      
physical constitution of man that will  
be interrogated4 ,everything  assists   
the belief that this century will be    
among other things the  century of      
psychical advance4 ,we appear to be on  
the verge of great  discoveries         
concerning the human mind1 and          
especially concerning  the relation of  
body to consciousness4 ,hypnotism has   

only during a  comparatively short time 
been the subject of systematic          
observation1  even in ,france2 but at   
any time during the last ten years      
results have  been achieved which1 if   
foreseen a century ago1 would certainly 
have  produced a widespread             
recrudescence of belief in witchcraft4  
,what  the developed science of a       
hundred years hence will be capable  of 
would certainly be a great deal more    
surprising if we could  foresee it      
to-day4 ,it is reported from the        
,salpetrire ,hospital  that a woman1    
under hypnosis1 has had the existence of
 a picture on  a blank sheet of paper   
suggested to her with such vividness    
that1  on the suggestion being revived  
at a subsequent period1 even after  a   
considerable interval1 she was able to  
detect that the picture  was upside     
down1 the blank paper having been       
actually reversed4 ,this  phenomenon is 
attributed to a great accentuation of   
the sense of vision  produced by        

hypnotism1 it being supposed that the   
paper1 perfectly  blank on ordinary     
observation1 had really some local      
irregularity  of colour or surface which
 the sharpened vision of the subject was
  able1 unconsciously1 to utilise4 ,what
 secrets in the mechanism  of the senses
 may not this fore-shadow8 ,without any 
recourse to  hypnotism1 as we at present
 understand hypnotism1 impressions have1
  in a number of instances sufficient to
 exclude all possibility of  collusion  
or error1 been conveyed from one mind to
 another without  the use of any of the 
ordinary means of communication3 and it 
is  shown in experiments seriously      
conducted by trained observers that  the
 faculties of thus communicating and    
receiving impressions can  be steadily  
cultivated4 ,in other words1 it would   
appear that human  consciousness        
possesses some sort of emanation1 and   
although certain  ray experiments       
possibly connected with the subject have
 not received  universal acceptance1 it 

is evident that the future is going to  
enlarge  considerably our knowledge of  
the nature of mental process4 ,at       
present  we know nothing--and it has    
been said with some rashness that we    
must  always remain in a like           
ignorance--of the interval between sense
 and  consciousness4 ,we know how the   
ear receives air-vibrations1 how it     
collects and conducts them to the       
auditory nerves1 carefully protecting   
itself1 by the action of beautifully    
ordered springs and cushions1  from the 
effects of vibrations violent enough to 
be dangerous to its  own integrity4 ,but
 even when we have followed vibrations  
as far as  the nerve1 and recognised the
 subtle variation of its own substance  
by which the nerve conducts the         
impression of them to the brain1 we     
have no inkling of the means by which   
the phenomenon of consciousness  which  
we call mind is produced4 ,well1 now    
that by suggestion alone we  can with   
perfect precision1 and without the use  

of any air vibration  whatever1 cause a 
hypnotised person 7or even a person who 
has at some  earlier period been        
hypnotised but has recovered his normal 
state7  to hear--in his mind            
alone--sounds which have no objective   
existence1  just as vividly and clearly 
as any sounds we can physically produce1
  does it seem extravagant to believe   
that the whole mechanism of sense1  nay1
 the dark mind-gulf beyond mechanism    
too1 will receive full  illumination    
from the science of the coming time8    
,such a discovery  would1 of course1    
throw utterly into shadow anything we   
have yet  learned of the nature of man4 
,it would bring us a step nearer to  the
 knowledge of the unknown soul of him4  
,what secrets might it  not carry with  
it of those mysterious co-partners1 mind
 and body1  thought and brain8 ,with    
this1 the noblest subject that can be   
proposed  to the intellect of man1 the  
science of a hundred years hence will   
assuredly be busy1 and imagination pales

 before the contemplation  of a notion  
so vast4 ,limited as we are by the      
knowledge of our own  time1 we cannot   
even conjecture whither such discoveries
 might lead  us4 ,all we can affirm is  
that the whole outlook of man1 nay1 the 
nature of man himself1 might very       
conceivably be changed by them1  and the
 greatest problems of the thinker may be
 resolved when we eat  of the fruit     
tendered us by this tree of the         
knowledge of good and  evil4 ,perhaps   
the soul of man may quail before the    
revelations in  store1 fearing that in  
the day we eat thereof we shall surely  
die4                ,,chapter ,,viii    
,,education ,a ,,hundred ,,years ,,hence
      ,allowing1 as every competent     
thinker must allow1 a full measure of   
validity to the contention that social  
developments are matters of slow  growth
 and gradual attainment rather than of  
sudden and catastrophic  change2        
admitting that even in the sphere of    
scientific discovery and  mechanical    

invention changes occur much more       
gradually than a cursory  glance at     
individual achievements would suggest2  
recognising that many  of the most      
remarkable changes whose arrival in the 
past is the only  possible valid guide  
to anticipation of similar or kindred   
changes in  the future2 it is still a   
condition of such anticipation that we  
should  take account of causes likely to
 be operative in altering the rate at   
which the world will move4 ,to allow    
that social improvements generally  have
 the air of occurring almost            
automatically is not to conceive that   
they are without cause4 ,neither can it 
be believed by anyone who has  studied  
the history of such movements in the    
past1 or watched them in  current       
progress1 that the rate of development  
is everywhere and at  all periods the   
same4 ,there have been eras of almost   
complete moral1  and even of almost     
complete mechanical1 stagnation in the  
history of  the world4 ,there have been 

other eras of almost violent reformation
  and reconstruction4 ,to reason as if  
these characteristics were  arbitrarily 
or miraculously imposed upon the        
physiognomy of society1  to be content  
with laboriously unintelligent          
estimation of the facts  without        
attempting to learn anything from them  
of their causes1 is to  neglect the only
 important lesson which either history  
or observation  is capable of teaching4 
,when1 therefore1 an enormous           
acceleration in  a rate of progress     
already unprecedented in the records of 
society  has been predicted for the next
 hundred years of human history1 it is  
evident that this anticipation must have
 been based upon some estimate  of      
forces calculated to be operative in    
producing acceleration4    ,so far as   
scientific or material progress is      
concerned1 it is obvious  enough that we
 shall move forward with increasing     
momentum1 because  every discovery and  
every invention tends automatically to  

facilitate  fresh attainment1 and the   
very growth of population must act in   
the same way1 as must also the struggle 
for existence4 ,as there are  every year
 more men and women working on          
scientific research and on  mechanical  
invention1 the results must be          
progressively greater every  year2 and  
as the rewards of success are increased 
by the growing  demand resulting from a 
growing population1 it is evident that  
the  incentives to industry in this     
respect are proportionately liable  to  
increase4 ,but the ethical progress of  
the world is actuated by  forces        
entirely different1 and what makes for  
mechanical improvement  may very easily 
be conceived--in fact has actually been 
conceived by  one rather conspicuous    
prophet--to operate adversely upon the  
moral  future of the race4    ,no       
secret1 however1 has been made of the   
present writer's belief  that our       
descendants a hundred years hence will  
have made moral  progress quite as      

remarkable as the mechanical progress of
 which the  anticipation is likely to be
 contested by no reasonably imaginative 
observer4 ,this ethical improvement1    
gradual1 and momentarily  imperceptible 
as it may be1 necessarily has causes    
which must now1  however tentatively and
 however cursorily1 be examined4        
,that these causes will be powerful1    
continuous in action and based  upon the
 fundamentals of human character1 is    
evident4 ,that in their  operation they 
will be opposed by other influences not 
less easy to  foresee is equally        
manifest4 ,what we have to precognise   
are the net  results likely to be       
achieved by the interaction of opposing 
forces1  of which those tending to      
improvement are confidently believed the
  stronger4    ,the most powerful of all
 moral influences in the future will    
undoubtedly be the reform of education1 
not merely by the improvement  of its   
methods in various departments1 but     
also1 and with much more  importance1 in

 the general spirit with which its      
objects will be  conceived4 ,but in     
order to affirm that this reform will   
occur1 we  must first demonstrate that  
the grounds upon which it is anticipated
  are adequate4 ,we must1 in the terms  
of the formula above proposed1  be      
satisfied that they are in harmony with 
the fundamentals of human  character4   
,if there be any human motive of which  
something approaching  universality can 
be predicted--quod semper1 quod ubique1 
quod ab  omnibus--it is that of parental
 solicitude4 ,no progenitor of children1
  however little amenable to high       
aspirations1 is wholly free from  the   
wish that his offspring shall grow up to
 be wiser1 stronger1  better1 more      
prosperous than himself4 ,the innate    
hopefulness of the  race expressed in   
the arid comment that1 in his own       
estimation1 man  never is1 but always to
 be blest1 is often discouraged by the  
time  a man's children are beginning to 
grow up1 especially in these days  of   

late marriage and deferred parenthood4  
,realising1 as most of us  have realised
 only too acutely by the time we are    
forty1 that we have  more or less failed
 in the ambitions which seemed so easy  
of future  attainment when we were      
twenty-five1 aspiration begins to cast a
 golden  light upon the career of our   
children1 and it is to the successes and
  the fame of our first-born that we    
look for consolation in the failure     
which1 for ourselves1 we no longer hope 
to evade4 ,romance1 celebrity1  even    
perhaps worldly reward1 we can no longer
 expect for ourselves2  but these dear  
hands that a little time ago we held    
while the first  tottering steps of     
babyhood were being tried1 shall return 
to us  hereafter with the laurel in them
 that we have never plucked4 ,perhaps   
we shall not live to see it on our      
child's brow1 but what of that8 ,our    
confident prevision of this glory is    
what we console ourselves withal3  this1
 though we hardly know it1 is our ,true 

,romance3--         ,the comfortress of 
unsuccess1      ,to bid the dead        
good-night4      ,neither in the        
material and the intellectual spheres   
alone do we aspire  more nobly for our  
children than for ourselves4 ,not       
success and not  fame limit our demand  
of ,fate1 that she repair in our        
children the  injustice of which we     
ourselves cease to complain4 ,we want   
them to be  better men and women than we
 have been4 ,to put the thing on its    
lowest  ground 7and nothing but the     
lowest motives ever seem to be accorded 
the  smallest validity by the more      
conspicuous among recent vaticinators of
  human action7 it behoves us to make   
the best we can of our children's       
morals1 if we are presently in old age  
likely to be dependant upon  them4 ,but 
for those who1 like ,malvolio1 think    
nobly of the soul1  it is sufficient to 
rely upon the manifested predilection of
 every  parent in order to be convinced 
that the education of the future will   

be moralised as well as rationalised    
through the natural emotions  of man4   
,only the dullest and most turgid       
imagination will consent to  believe    
that the horrible conditions of         
competitive struggle will be  permitted 
to foster only the lower faculties1 as  
greed1 selfishness1  unscrupulous       
cunning and subtle evasiveness1 at the  
expense of  all the finer               
characteristics of man4 ,there is no    
cynic so base as  would deliberately    
seek the fortune of his sons in the     
inculcation  of chicane4 ,struggle must 
sharpen all our intellects as life grows
  yearly more difficult1 but one        
by-product of this attrition will be    
the increased morality with which the   
education of each generation            
successively arising will be conceived4 
,pausing for a moment to remark1 in     
regard to the methods in detail  by     
which the improvement of education will 
most likely be sought1  that to foresee 
what is probable is not necessarily to  

endorse it as  ideal1 and that the      
object of this book is not to formulate 
,utopia1  but to predict the            
consequences implied by existing forces 
after the  latter have been during a    
stated time in operation2 and admitting 
that no reform ever practised within the
 recorded history of man has  been      
without drawbacks inherent in its own   
constitution1 it may be  said at once   
that the work of instruction is capable 
of mechanical  and instrumental         
improvement not less considerable than  
any other  labour to be undertaken by   
ourselves and our successors4 ,even     
within a  lifetime's limits all sorts of
 appliances for assisting the mind of   
the  learner to apprehend the facts     
sought to be learnt have been invented1 
and our children1 as we all know1 are   
much more easily taught than we  were   
ourselves4 ,the laudator temporis acti  
is always pretty ready to  depreciate   
the value of these improvements1 and    
perhaps it is natural  enough in most of

 us to find it difficult to believe that
 any plan of  teaching can be better for
 our children than the one which        
produced  results so pleasingly         
exemplified by ourselves4 ,but at all   
events1  it will be generally1 if a     
little grudgingly1 admitted that any    
form  of apparatus capable of saving    
time and trouble in teaching is capable 
of being ranked as an improvement4      
,unquestionably appliances having  this 
object will be constantly invented and  
used during the present  century4 ,for  
instance1 it is hardly conceivable that 
something less  than perfection in the  
teaching of a foreign pronunciation by  
the mouth  of the best teacher who can  
be hired for the work will content us1  
when  perfected talking-machines        
presently enable us to give examples of 
the  still better speech4 ,evidently a  
boy would learn to speak ,french with a 
purer accent by listening to a          
phonograph which1 freed of the present  
tin-trumpet timbre and whirring1        

repeated the speech of the ,comdie      
,franaise1 than by hearing an ordinary  
master read aloud4 ,to say this  is not 
to suggest that professors of languages 
will be dispensed with2  but their      
teaching can be thus supplemented4      
,similarly the use of  magic-lanterns   
and kinetoscopic pictures is capable of 
improving  greatly upon the blackboard  
and chalk still used4 ,but the plan of  
education in itself is so greatly more  
important to be foreseen than  the      
mechanism by which the details can be   
worked out1 and the latter  can with so 
very little difficulty be imagined by   
anyone interested  in them1 that the    
reader shall not be troubled with any   
discussion of  this branch of the       
subject1 but will rather be asked to    
concentrate  his attention upon the     
moral and intellectual aspects of it4   
,conceiving1 what ,i have all along     
endeavoured to show is reasonable  to   
conceive1 that all social institutions  
will be governed with  ever-increasing  

intelligence and rationality as time    
goes on1 and  that they could not       
possibly be tolerated otherwise1 it is  
easy  to see that education as hitherto 
and at present practised would  never do
 for our grandchildren1 let alone for   
our more advanced  descendants a hundred
 years hence4 ,to begin with1 parents in
 that  era would certainly consider it  
hopelessly and criminally unethical1  if
 not actively immoral4 ,projects of     
reform1 especially in morals1  are often
 dismissed as visionary1 because it is  
pointed out that no  changes can take   
place in the social order which do not  
appeal directly  to the self-interest of
 the individual4 ,in other words1 there 
is no  mainspring of social action      
except aggregated selfishness4 ,without 
delaying to examine the validity of the 
belief1 it may be said at  once that its
 full acceptance is no obstacle to the  
admission of  the whole case on which is
 founded the belief that education will 
be  conducted chiefly with a view to its

 moral effect at the period ,i am       
attempting to describe4 ,the very       
circumstances on which writers rely1    
who predict the ethical deterioration of
 man1 are those which make  the ethical 
reform of education inevitable4         
,precisely in proportion  as competition
 tends to harden and debase1 there will 
arise the  unavoidable necessity for    
deliberate counter-action of this       
tendency1  resulting1 as the effect of  
the measures necessitated becomes felt1 
in the changes of commercial and        
political conditions already #bj        
predicted4 ,if we consider at all       
thoughtfully the necessities of  a      
hundred years hence1 it is not difficult
 to foresee the general  lines upon     
which they are likely to be met--lines  
not necessary to  be accepted as        
representing a perfect or ideal state1  
but broadly  indicating the methods     
which the effect of visible tendencies  
will  by that time demand of a practical
 people4    ,here1 as everywhere else1  

the only safe guidance as to the        
practice  of the future must be sought  
in the tendencies of the present4 ,the  
tendency most forcibly in evidence      
during recent times is that in  favour  
of softening the former acerbities of   
education4 ,whereas the  schoolhouse of 
half a century ago was something like a 
penitentiary  in the way it was         
conducted1 the schoolhouse of to-day is 
managed  as much like a place of        
recreation as it possibly can be4 ,at   
all  events1 recreation is at least as  
assiduously cultivated as study1  and   
the candidate for an under-mastership   
who has a good cricket  record will find
 employment a good deal more easily than
 one  with a double-first4 ,if there be 
any complaint of public and other       
upper-class schools at the present      
time--and there is room for plenty  of  
complaint--it is more often that games  
are too much insisted upon  than that   
brains are overtaxed4 ,there is a       
visible reaction in regard  to this2 but

 it is not to be regarded as a reaction 
in favour of the  old draconic methods4 
,on the contrary1 the growing           
sentimentality  of the age steadily     
demands amenity of treatment for the    
fortunate  offspring of the twentieth   
century4 ,the late ,james ,payn1 sanest 
and kindliest of men1 was never tired of
 denouncing what he called  the         
barbarous and indecent corporal         
punishments of ,eton4 ,he used to  say  
that if a picture of an ,eton boy being 
birched were published  in the          
,illustrated ,london ,news no boy would 
ever be birched again1  and ,i believe  
that he tried to get either ,mr ,latey  
or ,mr ,shorter to  insert such a       
picture4 ,be this as it may1 what he    
said was perfectly  true4 ,i shall have 
something to say presently on this same 
question of  school discipline3 meantime
 it may with perfect safety be predicted
  of the master's cane a hundred years  
hence that it will be found  only in    
museums1 and 7whether rightly or        

wrongly7 be regarded as  a relic of     
degrading barbarism4 ,one reason why    
corporal punishment  will have to be    
abolished is that boys and girls will   
certainly be  educated together instead 
of apart4 ,as we could hardly cane girls
  7and it would be of very little use if
 we could7 we shall assuredly  have to  
get on without caning their masculine   
schoolmates4    ,i suppose that few will
 contest the statement that the         
religious  teaching practised in schools
 at the present time not only has very  
little to do with the question of       
morality but tends distinctly1 except   
in ,roman ,catholic seminaries and some 
few non-conforming colleges  where a    
special kind of education is given1 to  
have less and less  connection          
therewith4 ,whatever moral effect       
schooling has upon the  adolescent is   
recognisably and recognisedly due to the
 tone of the  school itself1 that is1 to
 public opinion among the taught1 and   
only  indirectly to anything which      

emanates from the teachers4 ,assuredly a
  proficient knowledge of ,biblical     
history has no ethical effect greater   
than a proficient knowledge of ,greek   
mythology 7at least of so much  of it as
 is properly selected for school use71  
and we have it on the  authority of ,mr 
,e4 ,h4 ,cooper1 a very entertaining if 
not particularly  sound writer on       
children1 that even ,confirmation       
classes are by no  means uniform in     
promoting a religious sentiment in boys4
 #ba    ,the moral advantages of        
education1 therefore1 tend to be found  
in  the effect of public opinion and the
 general tone of a school4 ,it  is      
discovered in practice that direct moral
 inculcation is not very  successful4   
,it is to be assumed that the ingenuity 
of future pdagogues  will be devoted to 
the discovery of the best ways in which 
indirect  moral influence can be        
cultivated4 ,in view of the high        
importance  which will evidently be     
attached to such influence1 we may take 

it  for granted that it is not in       
connection with any single branch of    
tuition that it will be sought for1 but 
that it will be root and  branch of the 
whole scheme of educational work4 ,one  
very powerful  assistance will be       
rendered to this by the system of       
co-education4    ,it is quite certain   
that boys and girls will always be      
educated  together a hundred years      
hence4 ,the tendency of the sexes to    
become  less different intellectually is
 a known fact of sociology4 #bb  ,it    
carries with it an inevitable tendency  
to dispense with the  separation of the 
sexes in education4 ,wherever           
co-education has  been tried its effects
 have been excellent4 ,the presence of  
female  students in medical colleges has
 had a markedly reformative influence   
on the manners and moral tone of medical
 student life1 not long ago  the        
opprobrium of civilisation4 ,the        
advantages to a parent of being  able to
 send his sons and his daughters to one 

place of instruction1  and to the       
children themselves of the companionship
 and maintenance  of family relations   
thus afforded1 are equally obvious4 ,in 
one other  respect1 which can only be   
touched upon lightly here1 the system of
  joint education must be enormously    
beneficial1 at all events to boys1  and 
greatly beneficial to their sisters4    
,every competent schoolmaster  is       
acquainted with special difficulties    
liable to arise about the  age of       
puberty4 ,the monastic seclusion of the 
schoolboy 7like that  of the single men 
in barracks who1 according to ,mr       
,kipling1 don't  grow into plaster      
saints71 and the glamorous mystery      
surrounding  the opposite sex1 tend to  
accentuate these difficulties4 ,the     
habit  of constant association with     
girls who are not his sisters relieves a
  boy of the exaggerated sense of sexual
 isolation4 ,a boy always brought  up   
with girls is not liable to be          
constantly thinking about girlhood3  and

 in practical experience many people are
 aware that boys who have  had the      
opportunity of frequent association with
 the girl friends of  their sisters grow
 into purer-minded and more chivalrous  
men1 than  those who have lacked this   
advantage2 and the thoughtful future    
will  assuredly cultivate the system    
which affords it4 ,it is quite evident1 
in addition1 that the fatuous and       
unreasonable mystery with which for     
centuries the natural facts most liable 
to be important in adult life  have been
 made inevitable subjects of unholy     
curiosity1 will be swept  away1 to the  
great enhancement of sane and clean     
thought in girls as  well as in boys1 in
 young women even more than in young    
men3 while  the tragedies which         
knowledge can avert1 hidden horrors of  
our own  day that we are too sentimental
 to envisage1 but that everyone must    
now and then have met with a hint of1   
will happily exist no more1  or occur   
but rarely4    ,among the indirect      

considerations which will assist us to  
the  conclusion that co-education is the
 best1 will be the endeavour1           
everywhere apparent1 to make the work of
 teaching agreeable to the  taught4     
,this is the keynote of the tendencies  
whose fruition we may  look for at the  
end of this century4 ,it will have been 
recognised  that to conceive of         
education as a process of forcing       
knowledge  into unwilling memories is to
 place the greatest possible obstacle   
in the way of success4 ,even the child  
whose natural faculties are  joyously   
receptive is bound to resist more or    
less unconsciously  teaching that is    
conducted on the assumption that he     
won't learn if  he can possibly help it4
 ,the worst child in the class sets the 
tone  of the rest4 ,the boy who can most
 successfully evade real learning1  and 
trick his instructors well enough to    
escape punishment1 is the  hero of the  
place4 ,nothing could be much worse for 
morality4 ,public  opinion in schools1  

useful as it is in other respects1 is   
everywhere  harmful in this particular4 
,the pdagogue of the future will proceed
  on a method far more rational4    ,in 
its essence it is quite easy to see what
 method the tendency  of thought is     
likely to develop4 ,here1 as in so many 
other places1  etymology can help us4   
,if we could think1 whenever we talk or 
make  plans concerning the subject1 of  
what education really means--a          
drawing-out of the natural faculties of 
the instructed--we should  always       
conceive more rationally of the work4   
,there is no animal whose  greatest     
pleasures are derived from anything else
 than the exercise of  its faculties4   
,our dog1 whether he jumps and tears    
about in glee as  we take him for a     
walk1 or sits happily by our side1 his  
head on our  knees1 his wistful eyes    
scrutinising our face1 sympathetic with 
every  emotion1 illustrates this fact4  
,in the one case he is exercising the   
natural faculties of speed and vigorous 

agility2 in the latter1 the  acquired   
and inherited faculties of mental       
comprehension4 ,shut him up  in a room  
alone1 or with an unfriendly person1 and
 he is miserable or  goes to sleep1     
providently accumulating energy for the 
next opportunity  of exercise4 ,what ,i 
am not afraid to call his mental        
pleasures are  not less keen1 if ,i know
 anything at all of dogs 7who have loved
  many of them7 than his physical       
pleasures2 and ,i never had a dog in  my
 life who would not cheerfully neglect  
his food to come indoors  and sit with  
me in my library4 ,are children's brains
 less energetic1  less capable of       
yielding pleasure to their small        
proprietors than the  brains of a dog8  
,one of the mistakes that we are already
 beginning to  find out 7and            
consequently one of those which we may  
expect to have  amended long before this
 time next century7 is the tacit        
assumption  that games are richer in    
pleasure than study4 ,it isn't the boys 

and  girls themselves that give this    
tincture to school-government4 ,plenty  
of them really prefer books before      
balls1 until they go to school2  where  
we at once proceed to show them that we 
regard cricket as a  sort of alleviation
 of their hard lot1 and with football   
console them  for their ,french lessons1
 and redress arithmetic by rounders4    
,there  is no reason why this should    
lead to any neglect of athletics4 ,only1
  athletics will be properly treated as 
only one of the joys of a school  life  
that will be fulfilled of other         
pleasures equally absorbing4    ,the    
method which will make education        
agreeable instead of repulsive is  part 
and parcel of the system on which       
education will be conducted1  and it is 
only incidentally that it will subserve 
the concurrent  sentimental tenderness  
which finds expression to-day in unwise 
use  of games in themselves highly      
beneficial1 just as elsewhere it finds  
expression by cultivating gluttony4 #bc 

,the true object of instruction being to
 show children how to think1  the       
intellectual exercise of thinking will  
be always found1 as it has  already long
 ago been found where this highly       
unusual method has been  experimented   
with1 to give keen pleasure to the      
instructed4 #bd    ,a great deal that   
has been said both in regard to the     
excessive and  in part exclusive        
training of memory1 and in regard to the
 propriety  of reversing the general    
order of tuition by proceeding from     
concrete  facts to generalised theories 
instead of beginning with               
generalisations  and illustrating these 
by specific instances1 is1 for practical
  reasons1 hardly likely to be acted    
upon by our descendants4 ,to begin      
with1 the culture of memory is not in   
itself an abuse2 on the contrary1  it is
 a highly necessary feature of          
education4 ,what is an abuse is the     
substitution of remembrance for         
ratiocination4 ,teachers in the future  

will be more anxious to develop the mind
 from within than to graft  information 
upon it from without4 ,but they         
certainly will foster the  faculty      
called memory--or to speak more exactly1
 they will refrain  from destroying that
 faculty in the way that present-day    
education  destroys it4 ,for as a matter
 of fact1 the memory of a young child   
who  has never been taught anything is  
invariably good1 being both copious  and
 retentive4 ,one often hears it said    
that children quickly forget2  but it is
 also the case that they very quickly   
remember again4 ,an  ,anglo-,indian     
friend told me a somewhat pleasing      
anecdote which 7though  of course it    
does not prove7 illustrates a general   
fact of which  anyone can find proofs   
for himself by a little observation4    
,having  taken home for a year's leave  
his children1 reared1 like all other    
,english children in ,india1 amid native
 servants1 and speaking quite  correct  
,urdu instead of the barbarous          

dog-,hindustani which suffices  for     
their elders1 he was under the          
impression1 when the wicked day  of     
destiny arrived1 and the family had to  
return from refreshment  in ,england to 
labour in ,india1 that they had         
completely forgotten  the soft          
vernacular speech which formerly came   
much more easily from  them than        
,english4 ,and his belief was confirmed 
when1 the children  having been promptly
 carried off by the adoring servants1 an
 aged  bearer came to him almost in     
tears1 complaining that ,baba ,sahib    
could not understand him4 ,but the next 
day all the little people were          
chattering ,urdu as easily as ever4 ,the
 fact is that a child's mind            
concentrates itself intensely upon      
whatever subject interests at a  given  
moment1 and neglects everything else4   
,by our present method of  education we 
do all that the most malignant ingenuity
 could devise  to destroy both this     
invaluable gift of mental concentration 

and the  accompanying faculty of memory4
 ,the new teaching will industriously   
cultivate both4 ,there is no doubt that 
the premature and unskilful use  of     
books as implements of instruction is   
extremely bad for the memory2  and the  
employment of distasteful and           
inconsiderate methods of teaching  is   
equally destructive of concentration4 ,a
 hundred years hence1  when it has been 
recognised that the easiest way to teach
 anything  is to find out how a child   
can be made to want to learn about it1  
there will be no difficulty in securing 
attention4 ,children's minds  do not1 as
 most people suppose1 tire very easily4 
,on the contrary1  they are with great  
difficulty fatigued4 ,anyone who has    
been so  imprudent as to embark on a    
course of tale-telling near bedtime or  
near a meal hour1 knows that the little 
people are almost incapable  of being   
satiated4 ,and the descendants of these 
little people will  be just as          
insatiable of being taught1 because we  

shall have found  out how to make them  
want to be taught4    ,herein is the    
whole keynote of the education of the   
future1 moral as  well as intellectual4 
,we shall no longer treat good behaviour
 as if  it were an artificial and       
unnatural abstinence from the true      
desires  of the child or of man4 ,we    
shall arrange that people1 young and    
old1  may wish to act rightly4 ,the     
point of reform will be shifted4 ,at    
present1 all kinds of morality are      
approached on the assumption that  it is
 requisite to persuade to an unwilling  
abstinence from vice1 and  that when the
 desires of the wicked have been curbed 
into a sort of  ascetic abstemiousness  
prompted by fear of punishment1 whether 
overt  or implicit1 a moral feat has    
been performed4 ,the new morality will  
only be content when the subject of it  
would not sin if you asked him  to4 ,his
 moral sense will have been stoically   
cultivated4 ,obedience and  the law of  
,thou-shalt-not will be dethroned4 ,this

 law represents in  the education of    
to-day the highest form of youthful     
virtue4 ,yet mere  obedience1 even where
 it has always been considered most     
valuable1  namely1 where it takes the   
shape of military discipline1 has proved
  an utter failure2 the last two great  
wars proved the fact4 ,if the           
lamentable doggerel which enshrines the 
applauded self-immolation of            
,casabianca have not fortunately been   
forgotten altogether a hundred  years   
hence1 it will assuredly be quoted only 
as a monumental example  of             
old-fashioned fat-headedness1 even more 
offensive to the sense  of reason than  
the verses themselves are to the sense  
of poetical  taste4 ,the ,casabiancas of
 the next century will have been        
allowed--,i do  not say taught1 because 
children don't need to be taught        
this--to think  for themselves4 ,and no 
great exertion will have been required4 
,on the  contrary1 it is impossible to  
listen for many hours to what goes on in

  a modern school without being         
impressed with the ingenious            
arrangements  that are required in order
 to prevent boys and girls from thinking
  for themselves4 ,the notion of their  
doing so seems as offensive to  the     
present race of schoolmasters as1 to ,mr
 ,w4 ,s4 ,gilbert's sentinel1--         
444 the prospect of a lot      ,of dull 
,m4,p4s in close proximity      ,all    
thinking for themselves4      ,however1 
the purpose of this dissertation is not 
so much to point  out the errors of the 
present as to indicate the improvements 
of the future3 and we may be sure that  
the prime virtues of the  scholar a     
hundred years hence will be             
reasonableness and ingenuity1  not dull 
obedience4 ,thus right conduct will be  
inculcated1 not as an  expression of    
obedience but as the only reasonable way
 of behaving1  and the incentive to     
right action will be that it is also    
sensible  action4 ,the test of all      
conduct will be its results4 ,whatever  

does  harm to self and others will be   
obviously wrong2 what does good or  is  
indifferent will be right4 ,the standard
 of these things that has  to be        
accepted all through life will be set up
 from the first1 an  enormous           
improvement upon the vicious system of  
exacting irrational  obedience for the  
first eighteen or twenty-one years of   
life1 and  expecting this to produce    
reasonable self-government thereafter1  
which is so fruitful in the wild-oats of
 early adulthood4 ,the latter  could    
hardly be more ingeniously cultivated4  
,it would be extremely rash to conclude 
that books will not be employed  as     
implements of instruction3 but it is    
quite certain that they will  not be    
employed as they now are1 chiefly for   
the purpose of saving a  schoolmaster   
the trouble of making his pupils think  
for themselves3  and incidentally the   
abolition of this mistake will react    
most  usefully upon memory1 itself1 with
 the exception of reasoning power1  the 

most valuable of mental faculties4 ,oral
 teaching1 accompanied in  every        
possible place by practical             
illustration1 will store and build  up  
memory 7as it always does when we employ
 it now7 far more rapidly  than anything
 else4 ,the delight which this method of
 teaching confers  upon the taught is   
enhanced by the avidity with which such 
subjects  as chemistry1 practical       
mechanics1 and even geometry when taught
  with apparatus instead of with        
figures1 are received by children of    
every growth4    ,to imagine that       
children can ever invariably be         
controlled without  some sort of        
punishments would1 no doubt1 be thought 
ridiculous  ,utopianism4 ,but the       
greatest part of the necessity for      
correction  will have disappeared       
automatically when the greatest source  
of  youthful misbehaviour--restless     
superfluous activity--has been  deviated
 into channels which will utilise it4   
,children whisper1  fidget1 or make a   

noise in class1 simply because they are 
bored by  the dulness of mechanical     
processes which we persistently use in  
seeking to cram information into their  
minds from without instead of           
exercising the reason that dwells       
within4 ,as the education of future     
generations will assuredly have to be a 
great deal more copious than  what we   
are content with now1 it is fortunate   
that this reform will  also be a great  
economiser of time4 ,every schoolmaster 
knows that  an interested class         
progresses far more rapidly than one    
that is  bored and consequently         
inattentive2 and the same boy who is    
alive  to the subtlest implications of  
the highly complex law of cricket1  will
 often be found utterly incapable of    
applying the very simple  definitions at
 the beginning of ,euclid ,i41 for the  
simple reason that  cricket interests   
him1 while ,euclid doesn't4 ,this is not
 because the  latter is harder than     
cricket1 nor yet because cricket is an  

outdoor  pleasure1 while ,euclid is 7or 
rather should be7 an indoor one4 ,it is 
because in cricket we get him into the  
habit of reasoning for himself1  while  
in geometry we only too frequently fail 
to do what ,euclid is  supposed to help 
us to do4    ,nevertheless1 after making
 every allowance for reduced temptations
  to misbehaviour resulting from the    
absorption of redundant mental          
activity1 it is still to be feared that 
disciplinary punishment  will sometimes 
be required4 ,this will certainly not be
 corporal4 ,the  uncivilised and        
degrading expedient of                  
purposely-inflicted pain is  visibly on 
its last legs4 ,there are still         
reactionary people who  write to the    
papers in order to explain that the use 
of scholastic  torture makes for        
manliness2 they must be presumed to     
think that it  would be on the whole    
rather good for boys to be birched at   
intervals1  like ,charles ,lamb1 not as 
a punishment1 but to keep them humble4  

,but  the next century will have        
outgrown such ideas4 ,the commonest  of 
present-day alternatives--lines--is     
equally obsolescent1  the evil effect of
 this upon handwriting and health being 
already  recognised4 ,keeping-in is     
probably the most injurious of all      
forms of correction1 but it is only too 
consistent with our present  plans of   
education to treat extra tuition as a   
punishment--the best  possible way to   
make all teaching hated4 ,it is much    
more likely that  the schoolmaster of a 
hundred years hence will punish         
refractory and  inattentive pupils by   
keeping-out instead of keeping-in4 ,the 
most  detested of all chastisements will
 be exclusion from the pleasant         
exercise of learning4 ,during the       
,russo-,japanese ,war newspaper readers 
noted with saturnine amusement that the 
artillery regiment which in  ,st        
,petersburg had the maladroitness to    
fire a salute with a shotted  gun and   
very nearly kill the ,czar thereby1 was 

punished by being sent  to the front2   
while at the beginning of hostilities   
the exemplary  conduct of the enormous  
,japanese army crowded in ,tokio for    
transport  was accounted for by the     
threat that any soldier who misbehaved  
himself  would be left at home4 ,it is  
the ,japanese and not the ,russian ideal
  of discipline that will animate the   
schools of the future4 ,we shall  no    
doubt emulate the reserve of the        
,confessor in the ,bab ,ballads2 old    
heads upon young shoulders we shall not 
expect to find2 and we shall  punish    
when punish we must4 ,future advantage1 
even for oneself1 is  seldom a very     
powerful motive with the young of any   
age4 ,but present  deprivation is a     
chastisement easily and keenly          
comprehended3 and  the loss of          
intellectual status involved in         
exclusion from a lesson  will no doubt  
supplement the immediate boredom very   
distasteful to an  agile mind1 which is 
the more immediate effect4 ,i imagine   

that the  naughty child of the future   
will be punished by being shut up in a  
well-ventilated and well-lighted but    
perfectly empty room1 with pockets      
equally empty4 ,at the same time1 by    
treating deprivation of it as an        
evident chastisement1 the desirable     
nature of instruction will be in  a very
 useful manner impressed upon the infant
 mind4 ,young persons  much more easily 
believe what they find to be treated as 
a matter  of course than what is        
laboriously impressed upon them by      
explicit  inculcation4 ,thus the effect 
of rationalised education will not be1  
as one critic has rather rashly         
supposed1 to make children little       
prigs4 ,on the contrary1 its effect will
 be to make them naturally  and happily 
interested little learners--a very      
different thing4 ,one  of the very      
greatest improvements in the            
rationalised education will  precisely  
be that it cannot possibly foster the   
awful priggishness  which is a very     

common result of our own methods4    ,it
 has been said already that the         
education of the happy future will  have
 to be much more copious than anything  
that is at all common  nowadays4 ,the   
nature of its extensions will next be   
discussed4    ,one of the most important
 and most moral objects of education is 
to impress upon the mind1 as a principle
 not to be evaded by any  contrivance   
whatever1 the fact that fixed causes    
7among which are  personal acts of any  
kind7 produce fixed effects--that there 
is no  circumstance which1 with         
sufficient knowledge1 could not be      
traced back  to pre-existing causative  
circumstance4 ,no department of         
knowledge  tends so intimately to give  
to the mind the impress of this fact in 
the course of its acquisition as        
physical science4 ,and as a proficient  
acquaintance with physical science will 
be necessary to a great many            
occupations1 when work of all kinds is  
performed in the intelligent  manner in 

which we have seen reason to be         
convinced that it will be  performed a  
hundred years hence1 there will be a    
greater practical  need for scientific  
instruction than there is now1 though   
science is  disgracefully neglected even
 with regard to our present necessities4
 ,as  education is to be given with the 
object of fitting children for  life as 
well as developing their minds1 the     
science of health will  certainly be    
taught2 but all physical sciences will  
have their place  on the curriculum even
 at the early stages1 because it will   
have been  recognised that the habit of 
mind which is formed by studies of this 
kind is not only very necessary to an   
efficient working life1 but also  very  
helpful as a basis of practical culture4
 ,it may be conceived that  a thorough  
grounding in physical science will be   
thought as much an  essential of all    
education in the future as a really good
 training in  ,latin and ,greek used to 
be considered in the past1 and as many  

of us  would like it to be considered   
now4 ,fifty years ago we believed that  
no true education could be given in     
preparation for ordinary life  without  
as much ,latin as was necessary in order
 to be able to write  a fair copy of    
elegiacs1 and as much ,greek as was     
necessary in order  to read ,homer with 
comfort4 ,a hundred years hence we shall
 think it  necessary to be able to read 
a scientific thesis comprehendingly4    
,at a later period of school life1 but  
still early in it1 specialised          
instruction will no doubt be begun2 and 
subjects connected with  the evident    
tendency of a boy's or a girl's mind1   
and with the  opportunities likely to be
 presented to either in forming a       
career1  will be developed to the       
exclusion of subjects less immediately  
subservient to the object of making a   
useful citizen of him or  her in some   
particular profession or branch of      
industry4 ,practical  demonstrations of 
science1 instead of being reserved for  

the more  advanced stages of tuition1   
will1 on the contrary1 form the         
groundwork2  and children will be       
required to work practically themselves 
instead of merely sitting still to watch
 the performances 7in this  case apt to 
be regarded with little more respect    
than scholastic  conjuring tricks7 of a 
teacher4 ,they will be invited to deduce
 laws  for themselves from what occurs  
in practice1 and where they deduce      
wrong ones they will not be arbitrarily 
corrected1 but assisted to  make further
 experiments which will show where the  
mistake occurs1  until at last the      
correct generalisation is reached4 ,only
 after a  considerable course of        
practical work will they be entrusted   
with  books in which great              
generalisations are to be found ready   
made1  and these books will always be   
regarded as a sort of pis aller--a      
time-saving contrivance to be employed  
as a regrettable alternative1  because  
it would take too long to work          

everything out by the golden  implement 
of individual observation4 ,the habit of
 mind thus cultivated1  and the manual  
dexterity thus obtained1 will be of     
priceless practical  worth in           
after-life2 and with what rapturous     
enjoyment will our  descendants acquire 
knowledge which at present we force upon
 our  children with stripes6    ,along  
with the physical sciences mathematics  
will have to be greatly  cultivated4    
,but mathematics1 when perceived to be  
ancillary to  the more immediately      
delightful work of concrete and         
experimental  science1 will lose much   
terror4 ,many mathematical operations   
can  moreover be demonstrated           
experimentally1 and no opportunity of   
thus  demonstrating them will be lost4  
,rightly treated1 mathematics need      
never be dull4 ,according to my own     
experience and all that ,i have  been   
able to gather from the recollections of
 others1 algebra 7for  instance7 is     
never abhorred when a proper care is    

taken to make use  of its call upon the 
reasoning faculties2 and the art of     
evoking this  use will have been        
carefully developed by the educational  
specialists  who alone will be permitted
 to direct so delicate and important a  
task  as the training of the young4 ,for
 school teachers will not be merely     
more or less erudite people employed to 
dispense their learning3 they  will be  
men and women who have undergone long   
and careful instruction  in the art of  
pdagogy studied as a specialised faculty
 in itself4    ,after mathematics1 no   
doubt languages occupy chief place in   
the righteous abhorrence of present-day 
school-children4 ,i say  righteous      
abhorrence with intention1 because this 
department of  useful learning always   
has the air of being purposely planned  
in  order to secure the maximum of      
execration accompanied by the minimum   
of advantage4 ,what languages will be   
taught a hundred years hence1  and in   
what manner will they be instilled into 

the children of our                     
great-great-grand-children8 ,any        
opinions upon a controversy so recent   
as that which a few months ago raged    
about the question of compulsory  ,greek
 must be more or less untrustworthy4    
,every man will take the  view of the   
future of the dead languages 7so called1
 as someone #be  sanguinely remarked1   
because they can never die7 determined  
by his  own view as to whether          
proficiency in the tongues of ,hellas   
and of  ,rome ought to be maintained in 
his own day4 ,but for a reason probably 
admitting of very little controversy1 it
 is at all events permissible  to       
believe that the classical languages    
will at least not have to meet  the     
urgent competition of a variety of      
current languages as subjects of  useful
 learning4 ,this reason is to be found  
in the evident tendency of  a paramount 
tongue to extrude other tongues from    
practical employment  in commerce2 and  
commerce1 more than anything else1 will 

of course  always determine the question
 of modern language study4 ,provided    
that  the race which becomes paramount  
in the markets of the world during the  
course of this century possesses a      
reasonably philosophical1 copious1      
precise language1 and one fairly easy to
 acquire1 it is likely that  for        
commercial purposes it will become 7to  
use an incorrect1 but not  conveniently 
replaceable term7 universal4 ,to the    
facile remark that  every nation        
considers its own speech easy enough for
 foreigners to  acquire1 and much more  
satisfactory in the other respects named
 than  any tongue which it is invited to
 give itself the trouble of learning1   
may be opposed the reply that peoples do
 in fact recognise1 where it  exists1   
the unsatisfactory nature of their own  
speech4 ,for example1  nearly every     
,russian whom one meets in polite or    
commercial circles  speaks at least     
,french1 and often speaks it admirably2 
while in ,norway1  though the           

,scandinavian languages are none of them
 anything like so  difficult to learn as
 ,russian1 practically everyone speaks  
,english4 ,the  case of ,japan is even  
more illustrative2 for apart from the   
fact that  enough of some ,european     
language to enable one to travel with   
perfect  comfort is always to be found  
current in the ,mikado's empire1 it is  
the  case that even for domestic use the
 ,japanese have a popular language1     
printed in newspapers and in some books 
alongside of the more literary  ,chinese
 idographs1 and frequently used to      
elucidate the latter4 #bf    ,thus it is
 quite easy to believe that the         
paramount language of  commerce will    
impose itself upon at least the business
 population  of the whole world4 ,as the
 substitution of modern languages for   
the dead languages is advocated solely  
on utilitarian grounds1 which           
practically means that it is advocated  
because to know a couple or more        
foreign languages is useful in trade2   

and as no one has ever seriously        
pretended that ,french1 ,german or any  
other modern language can compare  with 
,greek and ,latin as intellectual       
gymnastics and as training in  the      
precise expression of one's thoughts2 it
 may be assumed that1  on the ground of 
competitive usefulness1 the latter will 
not need to  be dispensed with4 ,whether
 the study of them will be abandoned on 
the  ground that the time they require  
can be better employed in some study    
other than that of languages is another 
and more difficult question1  the       
resolution of which depends upon the    
view we take of the literary  tendencies
 probably existing after another        
century4 ,if we believe  that our       
descendants will have effected so many  
improvements in the  shape of           
labour-saving contrivances as to afford 
a large increase of  leisure for        
everyone1 as compared with what the     
present time enjoys1  we shall probably 
expect the languages which enshrine the 

greatest  literature of the world to    
remain a subject of study4 ,if we       
believe in  the growing intellectuality 
of man1 we shall be strengthened in the 
same expectation4 ,if1 on the other     
hand1 we think that the progress  of our
 race will exhibit itself in the shape  
of greedy utilitarianism  and of idiotic
 and self-destructive immorality1 we    
shall naturally  conclude that no one   
will be fool enough to trouble himself  
with ,homer  or the ,oresteian trilogy1 
the laments of ,sappho or the philosophy
  of ,plato4 ,seeing what great men have
 taken this somewhat despondent  view of
 the future1 it would perhaps be        
immodest to express any other  opinion  
on the subject4    ,in any event1 we may
 safely believe that whatever languages 
are taught  will not be handled in the  
manner now current4 ,mr ,andrew ,lang   
has1  in more than one place1 described 
his own floundering into ,homer--a      
plunge certainly attended with the      
happiest results4 ,a method of  teaching

 alien languages which founds itself    
upon an imitation of the  natural       
picking-up of the mother tongue by      
babies has been suggested1  perhaps     
without sufficient consideration of the 
vast expenditure  of time necessary to  
the process1 and certainly without      
sufficient  allowance for the fact that 
it would be impossible to afford the    
same incessant practice which enables   
children to learn the language  of their
 fathers and mothers so easily4 ,but    
there is no reason why  we should       
perpetuate the discouraging             
preponderance of grammatical  and       
etymological study which caused the late
 ,h4 ,d4 ,traill to say of  certain     
professors that         ,they heard with
 a smile of the flowers of style        
,for they recognised nothing but roots6 
,in fact1 here as elsewhere1 the        
persistent demand that schooling be     
made agreeable will have the best       
possible effect in facilitating         
instruction4 ,it is as literature that  

all languages--including the  native    
language of the scholars--will be       
taught2 and they will  be taught far    
more easily than we have any example to 
assist us  in imagining4 ,where a       
foreign language pronounced with a      
different  accent and intonation from   
that of the learner is studied1 no doubt
 7as  already mentioned7 talking        
machines will be employed3 and in       
addition1  pupils will be required to   
read and speak the language aloud on all
  possible occasions1 in order to       
exercise the organs of speech in the    
alien manner4 #bg    ,it is a trite     
saying1 and one that need not be dwelt  
upon here1  that history ought not to be
 taught as if its sole purpose were  to 
store the memory with the deeds and     
misdeeds of kings and the  progress of  
various wars4 ,it will certainly be     
studied hereafter as  a vast lesson in  
sociology and politics1 as an           
illustration of the  science of human   
dynamics4 ,it is perhaps not superfluous

 to remark  that brilliant examples of  
the new historiography have shown that  
the  difference is not1 in its result1  
so great as some critics imagine4 ,but  
the deductions from the facts of history
 are the important matter3  and the way 
in which history will be used a hundred 
years hence will  be in instructing the 
future governors of the world how to use
 their  citizenship wisely4 ,among other
 things expected of the schoolmaster of 
the future will be that he implant in   
his scholars an ardent desire  to do    
their part in determining the polity of 
the state they live  in1 and the sacred 
duty of the ballot will certainly be    
taught with  relation to whatever       
methods of utilising the popular vote   
may by  that time have become current4  
,moreover1 history1 like languages1 is  
capable of being taught as  literature2 
and the protest against the prevalent   
notion that high  civilisation involves 
the decadence of beauty in any form     
implies  belief in all the arts as      

subjects of cultivation in the schools  
of the future4 ,it need not be supposed 
that the unreasonable waste  of time    
entailed by the present method of       
teaching such a subject  as drawing1 and
 our curious neglect of sculpture and   
modelling1  will be perpetuated4 ,as we 
can already see the dawn of new ideas on
  both these subjects the tendency of   
the future in regard to them is  not    
difficult to conceive1 nor need space be
 consumed in discussing  them in detail4
 ,literature and poetry 7the latter1 ,i 
need hardly say1  no longer made merely 
hateful as the subject of the fatuous   
torture  called learning by heart7 with 
belles-lettres1 drawing1 painting1  and 
sculpture1 will no doubt be taught in an
 elementary way to all  children1 and   
the study of them developed further     
where a natural  appetite demands it4   
,in reply to the very natural question1 
,how can  an art be taught8 it is only  
needful to say that minds exercised by  
being made to think about such subjects1

 are quite certain to exhibit  special  
predilections in one place and special  
aversions in another1  and that the     
ascertainment of these predilections and
 aversions will  everywhere be made the 
subject of painstaking thought4 ,while  
nobody  seriously pretends nowadays that
 a taste for literature or the arts  can
 be inoculated upon a child's           
understanding1 ,i imagine that few  will
 question the belief that a natural bent
 for any one of them can  be assisted in
 its development1 and that taste1 while 
it is incapable  of being artificially  
implanted1 certainly is susceptible of  
being  guided and assisted4 ,the defect 
of routine teaching in sthetics at      
present is the defect of all our systems
 of education4 ,we try to do  a         
scholar's thinking for him4 ,we         
laboriously show him how to use a       
pencil and how to copy drawings and     
pictures2 and sometimes 7though  this   
kind of instruction is usually retailed 
by the ingenious writers  who endeavour 

to instruct the adult public through the
 ,press7 we even  go to the trouble of  
telling him the kind of pictures he     
ought to  admire 7usually forgetting    
that in the house of ,art there are many
  mansions1 and that a disgust for the  
early ,dutch masters does not           
necessarily imply an incapacity for     
appreciating ,velasquez72 but1  whether 
in adolescence or maturity1 we never    
seem to arrive at the  point of trying  
to get people to think critically for   
themselves4 ,we  shall reform altogether
 the processes of artistic education in 
the  course of this century4    ,the    
training of eye and hand will certainly 
not be neglected4 ,if only  because     
learning any kind of handicraft gives   
the keenest enjoyment  to children1 we  
may be sure that manual instruction will
 be given1  and that the effect of it   
will be of great value1 not only        
recreative  but also practical4 ,our    
mechanics will not have to inaugurate   
the  wage-earning period of their lives 

by the elementary acquisition of  the   
use of tools4 ,their future occupation  
will have been foreseen1  and both by   
scientific understanding of the         
processes they are to  subserve1 and by 
manual practice of the exact work they  
are to perform1  they will be prepared  
for intelligent craftsmanship2 the      
glorious fact  that real anxiety to find
 out the best possible method of        
attaining  the best possible results    
makes every craft1 however humble1 not  
merely  delightful but also noble1 being
 automatically grasped1 so that work1   
like learning1 will be a thing of joy   
and a source1 to the worker1  of        
lifelong self-respect4    ,thus in every
 department of education the result of  
the training  administered              
intelligently1 and with almost infinite 
long-sightedness  and subtlety during   
school-days1 will be to form character1 
not by  repression of any natural       
predilection1 but by cultivation of     
mental  and moral impulses to good4 ,we 

shall never be content with an obedient 
abstention from misconduct1 but shall   
unrestingly contrive that the  desire to
 act rightly as well as wisely be       
implanted in the mind1  until wisdom1   
righteousness and forethought have been 
stamped upon  the character with so     
indelible an imprint that it would do   
violence  to the whole contour of the   
mind to act in defiance of them4 ,a     
people  thus trained will be capable of 
all the reforms predicted of society  a 
hundred years hence4 ,not by any of the 
unimaginable cataclysms by  which       
dreamers have expected ,utopia to be    
established1 ready-made1  on a basis of 
unreformed obedience to the will of     
fantastic lawgivers1  but by the steady 
growth of national morality will        
progress1         ,moving as beauteous  
order that controls      ,with growing  
sway the growing life of man1           
establish1 on the basis of a perfect    
harmony between the nature  of the units
 and the institutions of society1 the   

rationalised1  moralised1 and still     
progressive state of the world looked   
for by all  who contemplate logically   
and with ordered faith the capabilities 
of  their kind a hundred years hence4   
,,chapter ,,ix    ,,religion3 ,,the     
,,fine ,,arts3 ,,literature      ,a good
 many people contemplate the future of  
the world with an  alarmed feeling that 
vast material progress and enlarged     
knowledge  of the visible and tangible  
universe are likely to be accompanied   
by intellectual developments dangerous  
to the religious spirit in  mankind4    
,but to consider thus is to overlook the
 manifest trend  of human thought at the
 present time4 ,of the two influences   
named1  material progress and enlarged  
information about the universe1 the     
former is probably much more directly   
liable to affect religious  feeling     
adversely than the latter4 ,epochs of   
high civilisation and  great luxury have
 often accompanied a general tendency to
 scepticism1  and these conditions are  

also perhaps 7and for the same reasons7 
not highly favourable to the highest    
developments of poetry4 ,there  have    
been periods of scientific discovery    
which have coincided with  the spread of
 irreligion4 ,during the second half of 
the nineteenth  century there was1 for  
instance1 no doubt a great increase of  
popular  scepticism arising out of      
popular deductions 7or supposed         
deductions7  from science4 ,religion    
unquestionably lost ground in the sense 
that  dogmatic irreligion became rather 
fashionable4 ,when the people began  to 
learn that geological research had      
entirely upset the ,biblical            
chronology1 and that biological research
 had proved the development of  animal  
life by evolutionary processes not      
compatible with a literal  acceptance of
 the account of the creation in         
,genesis2 when knowledge  of the        
developments of language proved that the
 various tongues  of mankind could not  
possibly have been the subject of a     

sudden1  cataclysmal confusion at ,babel
 or elsewhere1 and when it became       
common knowledge that the sun and stars 
were not suddenly produced  for the     
convenience of man1 but were1 on the    
contrary1 for the most  part much older1
 as suns and stars1 than the earth      
itself2 it is not  surprising that minds
 untrained in philosophical deduction   
leaped  towards atheism1 although1 of   
course1 none of these discoveries has   
any more to do with religion1 as        
religion1 than1 say1 chemistry has  to  
do with music4 ,unless one takes a      
highly anthropomorphic view of  the     
subject they are not even inimical to   
revelation4 ,of course it is  open to   
anyone who chooses1 to say that if the  
statements in the ,bible1  said to be   
inspired1 are incorrect1 the ,creator   
7and ,inspirer7 either  did not know how
 ,he had done ,his work1 or told        
untruths about it2 and  consequently    
that scientific discovery has disproved 
revelation4 ,but  that is what ,i have  

called a highly anthropomorphic         
argument1 and  it may safely be left to 
the apologists to demolish4 ,assuredly  
it  is not a sort of argument likely to 
be met with in the cultured and  logical
 future4 ,but it was an argument which  
commended itself very  widely to the    
uncultured and illogical past1 and great
 efforts were  made to deal with it4    
,these efforts were really inimical to  
religious  faith4 ,religion having been 
declared to rest upon the irrefragable  
rock of ,holy ,scripture1 there appeared
 to many excellent people an  urgent    
necessity that science should be set    
right1 that the theory  of ,evolution   
7by which was meant1 for these thinkers1
 ,darwinism7 must  be disproved3        
otherwise all faith must go by the      
board1 and the world  must descend into 
pure materialism4 ,the ,biblical        
criticism produced in  ,germany1 and    
apparently received in the very heart of
 the ,christian  camp1 seemed to plain  
men not merely to assail this           

irrefragable  rock but to strike at the 
roots of religion itself4 ,atheism1     
having  become unfashionable1 was       
exchanged from an agnosticism of which  
the popular conception was not a great  
deal more philosophical4 ,the  whole    
question of religion was conceived to   
hang together4 ,the ,bible  was the     
,word of ,god3 if the ,bible could not  
stand1 ,god must fall4 ,and  the        
stability of the ,bible was considered  
to rest upon scientific  accuracy4 ,a   
miscellaneous collection of writings1   
certainly of great1  but of variously   
computed antiquity1 was to be absolutely
 right 7which  no other documents of    
anything like the same age have ever    
been7 on  scientific facts2 otherwise it
 could not be retained as a text-book of
  the churches4 ,the latter 7sometimes  
themselves claiming inspiration7  had   
declared the ,bible to be directly      
inspired3 and by some people            
inspiration was taken to imply literal  
and detailed truth1 though  literal and 

detailed truth would certainly have made
 the collection  utterly                
incomprehensible by the persons who have
 used it during all  but the last       
comparatively insignificant portion of  
its existence1 and  to most persons even
 then4 ,evidently such a conception of  
the ,bible1  accompanied by the opinion 
that religion could only exist on the   
basis  of the ,bible1 was dangerous to  
popular religion in proportion as the   
opinions here summarised met with public
 support4    ,hardly less dangerous was 
the endeavour of some apologists to     
assist  the difficulty of belief by     
attenuating the minimum required of  it4
 ,the exposure of their rather circular 
arguments--basing ,faith  on the        
inspired ,bible1 and the inspiration of 
the ,bible on its  internal             
evidence--titillated in the untrained   
thinker who had  rejected 7as he was    
encouraged to reject7 the claim of the  
,church  to be the repository of        
inspired tradition1 a sense of his own  

logical acuteness4 ,with a warm glow of 
self-approval he abandoned  the ancient 
shibboleths and left off going to       
church1 being convinced  that no really 
well-informed intelligence could        
tolerate the mutual  contradiction of   
science and religion4 ,with no more     
ability to  understand the arguments    
which supported the one than the        
philosophy  which lay at the root of the
 other1 and quite unaware that religious
  belief is capable of development and  
is as much a product of evolution  as   
any material phenomenon1 he considered  
according to temperament  that religion 
was either a mischievous invention      
calculated to clog  the progress of the 
world1 or a pardonable aberration of    
amiable  minds seeking consolation in   
superstition of one sort or another4    
,the  religiously-minded thinker of the 
same calibre welcomed with enthusiasm   
the antagonisms of scientific schools   
discovered for him by the less  wary of 
his teachers1 and decided that ,darwin  

was wrong1 that ,huxley  was following  
false scents1 and that science would    
have to revise  all its later           
conclusions4 ,in neither case           
7naturally7 was                         
444 divine philosophy1      ,not harsh  
and crabbd as dull fools suppose1       
,but musical as is ,apollo's lute1      
called into the assize4 ,mistakes of    
,moses1 to be either proved  or         
justified1 were popularly supposed to be
 the touchstone of  religion's fate4    
,meanwhile1 though the combatants in the
 popular  arena were quite unaware of   
it1 the true thinkers were realising    
vast depths which science had left still
 unexplored1 and the very               
investigations undertaken to account for
 the beginnings of life on  this planet 
were proving the belief in the          
spontaneous generation  of life a       
figment4 ,whatever effect science may   
have had upon myth1  it was doing       
nothing to assail the ultimate mystery  
which is the  basic fact of religion4   

,by degrees1 too1 the philosophical     
untenableness of materialism began  to  
be popularised1 and although it is a    
great deal easier to accept  7or        
decline7 scientific discoveries without 
understanding the evidence  for or      
against them than to grasp such abstract
 considerations as the  subjectivity of 
phenomena1 popular scepticism began to  
be directed  into new channels4 ,if we  
could only know phenomena we really know
  nothing2 and it was just as likely    
that the most absurd myths of  the      
hagiologist might be true as that they  
might be false--since  one could know   
nothing4 ,towards the end of the century
 there is no  doubt that among the      
masses of the people the                
incomprehensibleness of  things in      
general had the effect of popularising a
 certain tolerance  of ,christianity    
among the class which1 a little earlier1
 had been  repudiating it altogether2   
and if church-going1 ,sabbath-keeping   
and  other formal acts of religion      

continued to be mentioned by the clergy 
and their adherents as the subject of   
lamentable negligence1 the habits  thus 
deplored arose1 less and less from      
conviction and more and more  from      
taste4 ,people stayed away from church  
not because they rejected  ,christianity
 but because church-going bored them4   
,if the clergy saw  their congregations 
dwindle they had themselves to thank for
 it4 ,the  atrocious dulness of nearly  
all sermons drove away more churchmen   
than were lured from their pews by      
militant irreligion4 ,there is not  the 
smallest reason to believe that free    
thought propaganda had any  really      
important part in producing the         
indifference denounced by the  churches4
 ,the simple fact is that a growing     
appetite for amusements1  athletic and  
other1 and an intolerance of the boredom
 inflicted by  preachers too indolent or
 too imperfectly educated to make their 
discourses tolerable by an active mind1 
robbed the churches of their  visitors4 

,a good preacher never lacked a crowded 
congregation even  in the middle of a   
week-day in the city of ,london2 nor are
 such  congregations lacking now4    ,no
 doubt the form of education generally  
adopted in non-,catholic  countries has 
been a great cause of indifferentism4   
,the fostering of  parental indolence by
 ,states which profess to relieve it of 
the duty  of religious as well as the   
expense of other teaching1 cannot tend  
to  promote religious education4 ,to    
take our own country for an example1    
fathers1 who would make it a duty to    
instil as well as they were able  the   
principles of their own faith into the  
minds of their children if  the board   
schools were not supposed to teach      
,christianity1 doubtless  neglect that  
task in the existing conditions1 a fact 
which makes  it quite easy to understand
 why congregations are so largely made  
up of elderly people1 while boys and    
girls1 not young enough to be  haled    
unwillingly to the parental pew1 and    

young men and maidens1  young wives and 
husbands educated on the prevailing     
system1  tend more and more to amuse    
themselves1 not in irreligion but in    
indifference4 ,the squabbles of the     
sects have made it impossible to  invest
 ,christianity in board schools1 unless 
the law be flagrantly  violated1 with   
any of the importance necessary to the  
foundation  of a genuinely religious    
spirit2 and the very children find that 
religion is treated as a thing of much  
less importance than sums or  a good    
handwriting4 ,no one struggles and      
wrangles about the right  way to do long
 division4 ,long division1 therefore1 is
 a settled  thing and important4 ,but   
everybody quarrels and snarls as to who 
shall teach his particular kind of      
religion4 ,religion1 therefore1  is a   
doubtful sort of thing1 about which even
 grown-up people do not  agree4 ,it     
cannot be of much importance4 ,if you   
ask father about it1  he says it is the 
teacher's business to answer you4 ,and  

in school1 it  has to be attended to at 
a certain time so as not to interfere   
with  the real business of the day4     
,clearly it doesn't much matter2 and    
the child resolves1 as soon as it is old
 enough1 to escape from the  weekly     
boredom of sitting still for two hours  
in a stuffy church or  chapel1 saying   
the same things over and over again1 and
 listening to  a dull man in a sort of  
elevated and ornamented witness-box     
talking  in a patronising tone about    
things not easy to understand1 and not  
in the least practically useful when    
heard4    ,of course this is not the    
only sort of influence which has been at
  work to produce a result likely to    
affect the attitude of the present      
century towards the question4 ,if the   
facts are as ,i have stated them  7which
 ,i do not think anyone will dispute7 we
 see one very good reason  why the      
younger generation is just now somewhat 
irreligious4 ,i do  not believe it is   
nearly as irreligious as many good      

people 7on both  sides7 think4 ,but ,i  
do believe that we1 at all events1 have 
as a nation  been doing every thing we  
can to make it so4 ,there is no surer   
way of  preventing a thing's being done 
than for the ,state to make a show of   
doing it and then neglect it4 ,if the   
school boards had not assumed the  duty 
of teaching children ,christianity1     
parents would have attended  to the     
matter1 and probably done it a great    
deal better than the  boards could      
possibly have done it1 even in the best 
conditions4 ,and  if anyone says that   
you can't teach ,christianity1 the reply
 is1 that  in the sort of conditions    
which exist in ,england at the present  
time1  the religious spirit is not      
favoured unless religion is taught4 ,i  
said  at the beginning that the sort of 
life we lead now1 and that we are       
likely to go on living during the next  
hundred years1 is probably more         
unfavourable to the spirit than any     
directly irreligious influence of       

science or discovery4 ,people who are   
crowded into towns1 where they  are out 
of constant touch with ,nature and the  
immensities of space1  and lead a       
hurried1 busy existence unfavourable to 
deep thought and  mysticism1 are much   
less liable to yearn for some           
explanation of the  vast                
incomprehensible universe1 the profound 
misgivings of the soul1  than people who
 have other opportunities1 who know the 
massive face  of solitude and have lain 
under the inscrutable stars4 ,the very  
frequency of terrible experience1 when  
death stalks in the streets  and a      
funeral procession is so common a sight 
that men hardly turn  their unbared     
heads to look upon it1 blunts the sense 
of awe2 and  in the cheap ,press the    
alleged humorist finds it a choice      
subject  for joking4 ,a hundred years   
hence1 though ,i hope our humorous      
,press  won't be quite so ghastly1 still
 more of us will have lived always  in  
cities1 and been rarely intimate with   

,nature4 ,unless1 therefore1  some new  
influences supervene1 it is likely that 
the new age will  be even less          
religiously inclined than the age we    
live in4 ,is it  probable that such an  
influence will arise8 ,or will the next 
century  have turned its face altogether
 from faith and given up in despair  the
 world-old riddle of the universe8      
,assuredly1 with the increase1          
impossible to be denied1 of conditions  
unfavourable to church-going1 the       
influence which could arrest  the       
tendencies of thought at present        
supposed to exist must be a  powerful   
one4 ,but in computing the exact potency
 which it would  require to possess we  
must take an accurate view of the       
tendencies  themselves4 ,now1 although  
dogmatic religion has to a certain      
extent  lost ground1 and though formal  
observances are somewhat neglected1  it 
would be a fallacy to consider that     
morality is in consequence              
retrograding4 ,the steady growth of such

 things as teetotalism2 the  revolt of  
the public conscience against tame stag 
hunting and against  what was aptly     
called murderous millinery2 the support 
afforded to  the societies for the      
,protection of ,children and for the    
,prevention  of ,cruelty to ,animals2   
the generous responses made to any      
appeal for  public subscriptions to meet
 any great disaster2 the remarkable way 
in  which the working people1 out of    
their miserable poverty1 help each      
other in time of strikes2 the waves of  
public indignation which the  exposure  
of any great injustice is able to       
arouse2 all show that the  world is by  
no means retrograde in respect of       
morals4 ,what is often  called the      
growing sentimentality of the age1 which
 opens all pockets  at the call of want1
 and doubtless sometimes leads to       
ridiculous  exhibitions of mistaken     
feeling1 is a proof that the ethical    
sense  of the people is by no means     
blunt2 and it shows a constant tendency 

to become keener4 ,it is mysticism      
rather than morality which is  chiefly  
lacking to a re-development of the      
religious spirit4 ,and  although the    
opinions of the mass of the people are  
likely to be  influenced at all times   
more by the results at which what are   
called  leaders of thought arrive than  
by the reasons which lead up to those   
conclusions1 it is rational to expect   
that with the improved and much  more   
thoroughly disseminated education which 
the necessities of the  coming century  
are going to enforce upon us1 will make 
the people  more accessible to          
philosophical reasoning than they have  
ever been  since ,socrates4             
,consequently1 the general attitude of  
the world a  hundred years hence towards
 mysticism will depend greatly upon the 
conclusions of eminent thinkers4 ,these 
conclusions will require time  in order 
to exercise their influence2 but it     
seems probable that the  influence will 
be towards and not away from mysticism4 

,an attempt to foresee the probable     
position1 as an institution1 of         
religion in the future therefore demands
 the consideration of what  net result  
is likely to be deduced from science and
 philosophy by the  improved average    
intelligence of this century4 ,i speak  
expressly of  religion as an            
institution1 intending thereby to limit 
the inquiry to  an attempt to determine 
the popular view of religion2 the       
pretence to  anticipate the opinions of 
the great philosophers that this century
  will no doubt produce being a little  
too presumptuous even for the  present  
writer1 who may not be considered in any
 event to have fallen  into many errors 
resulting from excessive modesty4    ,we
 can only come within reasonable limits 
of safety and consistency  in such an   
inquiry by allowing here1 as ,i have    
allowed all through1  for a great       
increase in general intelligence4       
,probably the mass of the  population   
will be less greatly removed in         

reflective and reasoning  powers from   
the greatest minds than at present2     
because the changes  which have been    
predicted are likely to have more effect
 in raising  the general standard of    
intelligence than in producing          
individual  and exceptional minds of    
very great calibre4    ,no doubt the    
people will be in closer touch with     
advanced thinkers than  now4 ,but ,i do 
not see any reason for supposing that   
the latter can be  conspicuously greater
 than the thinkers of past time1 from   
,plato to  ,herbert ,spencer4           
,consequently it is impossible to       
restrict the inquiry  to strictly       
popular developments4 ,we must ask what 
direction abstract  thought is likely to
 take3 and it certainly does not seem   
that the  influence of recent           
discoveries in physics--especially those
 which  have produced the new theory of 
the constitution of the atom--can  tend 
to materialism4 ,with atoms resolved by 
the latest science into  electrons1     

which have been declared in a passage   
already cited to be  not merely carriers
 of electrical charge but the electrical
 charges  themselves1 the objectivity of
 matter has assuredly not received any  
new support4 ,and if speculation as to  
the beginning of things 7always  the    
kind of speculation most important to   
philosophy1 where philosophy  is made   
the handmaid of religion7 is relieved of
 the necessity of  accounting for the   
creation of matter1 and only has to     
concern itself  with the creation of    
force1 we evidently approach the more   
abstract  conception of a ,something not
 ourselves which is admittedly the      
philosophical necessity most favourable 
to spiritual religion4    ,but for many 
people natural religion is a poor       
alternative for  revelation1 and if we  
interrogate probability as to the future
 of a  faith in directly-revealed       
religion we approach a much more        
difficult  question4 ,the verbal        
inspiration of ,scripture appears to be 

no longer  regarded as a necessity of   
this faith2 and with its final          
abandonment  we shall no doubt enter    
upon a period of much more abstract     
thought  and of vaguer belief1 but 7as  
,i think7 also a far more spiritual     
attitude towards the ,unseen4 ,from the 
moment when faith is relieved  of all   
danger from the critical discrediting of
 any particular set of  documents1 it is
 of course freed from certain great     
dangers4 ,probably  the ,christian of   
the year #bjjj will have abandoned all  
dependence  upon the authenticity of the
 original sources of information1 and   
will  be quite ready to let what used to
 be regarded as the foundations of      
belief take their place with other      
mythologies4 ,but this position need    
not be regarded as irreligious2 possibly
 it need not be considered              
un-,christian4 ,the hospitality which   
all truly religious thought  begins to  
extend1 not merely to uncanonical       
scriptures but to the  best religious   

thought of all ages1 will strengthen    
rather than  weaken the spiritual       
attitude2 and1 however we may probe into
 the  sciences of life and of the       
universe1 the awful mysteries which lie 
beyond the sphere of science will always
 tempt man to speculate and  to aspire4 
,always we shall yearn towards the      
eternities which preceded  and the      
eternities which must follow the little 
interval that we call  ,time4 ,always   
beside the grave that has closed upon   
what we have loved1  despair will lure  
us on to seek consolation in a faith    
which promises  re-union beyond the     
bourn4 ,always the manifold injustice of
 ,fate will  make aspiration inevitable4
 ,always the uplifting spectacle of the 
stars1 the immensities of ocean and     
infinite mysteries of the soul of  man  
will make us welcome the spiritual      
teaching which can throw gleams  of     
mystic illumination upon the riddles of 
the universe and justify the  ways of   
,god to man4 ,we may not always see our 

way to find efficacy in  ritual incense2
 we may not long continue to ask direct 
interventions of  the ,deity in prayers 
which we know in a literal sense to be  
unthinkable  and profane2 we may cease  
the impertinence of offering suggestions
 to  the ,maker of the world on the     
subject of next week's weather2 and yet 
when we uplift our hearts in aspiration 
and beg that we may divine more         
spiritually the nature of the ,creator1 
and learn to love our neighbour  more   
effectually and with a better           
enlightenment1 we may still pray  and   
know that our prayer is answered4 ,if we
 cease to think that wicked  men descend
 into some chastisement of which fire   
and flames are the  abandoned symbols1  
we may still realise that none can act  
against  the moral intuitions of his    
nature without mutilating his own soul3 
and if this soul of man be immortal1 its
 punishment is thus eternal  also1 and  
can be cancelled only by the act of     
divine mercy which we  shall still call 

man's redemption4 ,we begin to know     
something of the  mind's independence of
 the body where 7in phenomena of which  
evidence  seems to be accumulating7 mind
 can speak to mind by other means than  
the senses3 and everything which points 
that way cuts fresh ground  from under  
the notion that bodily death is the end 
of us4 ,although  the philosophical     
theory of immortality does not need this
 evidence1  faith is assisted by it4 ,on
 the great ideas which are the support  
and  justification of religion there    
seems no reason to suppose that the     
discoveries of the next hundred years   
are likely to throw discredit4    ,to   
sum up1 then1 ,i believe that the effect
 of improved education  will be to      
conserve rather than to destroy         
religion2 but ,i do not  believe that   
religion will be a historical so much as
 a philosophical  conception4 ,the      
present great obstacle to religious     
feeling in  non-,catholic countries1    
namely the pretence of the ,state to    

teach  religion as if it were a science 
or an art1 will have been removed  some 
while before this time next century1 and
 individual effort will  be cultivated  
in this1 as in certain other respects1  
instead of being  repressed4 ,the ,bible
 will be read for its morals1 its       
poetry1 its  literature2 and the        
aspiration to conceive the ,divine will 
continue  to take the shape of some kind
 of public worship probably much unlike 
anything which we now practise1 and     
totally divorced from any faith  in     
miracles and verbal inspiration4 ,in    
religion men will seek their            
consolation against the buffeting and   
injustice of destiny1 and in a  more    
reasoned notion of immortality dry their
 eyes before the poignant  spectacle of 
,death4    ,the whole tendency of the   
modern mind is to become more           
spiritually  imaginative4 ,we are often 
scornfully told that this is an age of  
hysteria1 when the mere fact is that it 
is an age of imagination4 ,the  highly  

civilised life of our day #bh naturally 
exalts intelligence  in comparison with 
mere activity of body2 mind gains       
ascendency  over muscle4 ,it is much    
more important to worldly success just  
now  that a man should be able to think 
accurately than that he should  be able 
to lift great weights1 endure great     
physical fatigues or  fight             
satisfactorily4 ,consequently1 there is 
a great premium upon  intelligence1 and 
only a much smaller premium upon bodily 
strength2  and this condition of affairs
 is likely to become accentuated as  the
 present century develops4 ,with        
increase of intellectual agility  we    
obtain increase of subtlety and         
intuition1 and of those finer           
perceptive and critical faculties which 
make expression of the  emotions        
important and interesting4 ,it has often
 been argued that  epochs of high       
civilisation are unfavourable to poetry 
and the fine  arts1 and a well-known    
passage of ,macaulay argues the point at

 some  length4 ,whether such an epoch as
 that of a hundred years hence be       
probably fertile in art or no1 assuredly
 appreciation of the fine  arts will be 
widespread and acute4 ,of course you can
 never account  for the extraordinary   
phenomenon called genius1 and while it  
is  no doubt true that genius1 like     
everything else1 is the product of  its 
age1 yet genius consistently transcends 
its age4 ,the number of  minds in a     
thousand able to bring a reasonable     
degree of competent  appreciation to the
 writings of ,shakespeare is much       
greater now than  when ,shakespeare     
wrote4 ,there never was a time when a   
great writer1  or a great painter       
7despite what happened to ,whistler7 was
 in less  danger of public neglect than 
the present4 ,and the next century  will
 be yet more critical than this4 ,every 
one of the fine arts  will be more      
generally and more subtly appreciated   
than now4 ,the  existing masterpieces of
 antiquity will be even more reverently 

enjoyed than now1 and the lessons they  
embody will be more completely          
assimilated4 ,it remains to be answered1
 whether the next century will  be      
fertile in new masterpieces of          
literature and art4    ,there has been1 
in my opinion1 too great a readiness on 
the part of  most writers to assume that
 high civilisation necessarily creates  
epochs of ugliness4 ,no doubt railways1 
factories and other civilised  and      
civilising conveniences do not1 in the  
natural course of things1  tend to      
assume forms gratifying to the          
sthetician4 ,the present  tendency of   
domestic architecture1 for instance1    
shows an abject sort  of spirit by      
basing any effort which it may make for 
comeliness on  an attempt to imitate the
 picturesqueness of the past rather than
 to  form new and beautiful styles      
adapted to modern requirements4 ,because
  old red-brick1 timbered rough-cast1   
and the quaintly-shaped buildings  of   
old time please the eye by contrast more

 than by inherent beauty1  unintelligent
 builders just now think they can redeem
 dwelling-houses  from plain ugliness by
 imitating these peculiarities1 and they
 are  encouraged in this course by the  
people who are to live in such houses   
and by the exploiters of estate         
development4 ,but such fine examples as 
the new ,westminster ,cathedral show    
that the spirit of beauty has not  left 
our architects4 ,the growing            
intelligence of the new age ought1 at   
all events1 to develop1 as its resources
 will reward1 originality4 ,and  the    
developed stheticism of the age will    
demand beautiful buildings1  not        
slavishly copied from the antique1 but  
created by the imagination  of the      
modern4 ,reverence for natural beauty1  
already manifest in the  revolt against 
advertisement-boards in juxtaposition   
with notable  scenery and even along the
 sides of railways 7where one would have
  thought that a little more ugliness   
could do no great harm7 will  no doubt  

be accentuated when the unviolated      
virginities of ,nature  have become     
fewer2 and a steady growth of public    
taste is evidenced  even now by the     
success of the better sort of street    
advertisements  and the failure of the  
uglier kind1 as demonstrated by the     
steady  abandonment of the latter4 ,the 
most fashionable artists no longer      
think it beneath them to design         
wall-posters4 ,if the advertisers  who  
pay their large fees find it profitable 
to purchase art in an  expensive market1
 it must be because popular taste is    
better than it  used to be2 and even if 
the cult of the photograph and the      
process  block in illustrated           
newspapers1 to the detriment of drawings
 and  wood engravings1 be cited as      
evidence in the other direction1 we have
  a right to quote in rebuttal of this  
the rather violent efforts of  the more 
intelligent class of amateurs to secure 
a recognition of  selective and         
manipulated photography as an art4      

,moreover1 just as  some critics have   
argued that it is better for the people 
to read  the atrocious letterpress of   
the popular papers than not to read     
anything1 it can also presumably be     
contended that it is better for  the    
people to look at photographs reproduced
 by process than not  to look at any    
pictures at all1 though1 in reality1 it 
is doubtful  whether bad pictures and   
inferior literature are not much worse  
and much more degrading to popular taste
 than none4 ,that we really  do care for
 pictures even in ,england 7however     
little critical ability  we may possess 
to distinguish good pictures from bad7  
is evidenced by  the crowds which throng
 the ,royal ,academy4 ,it would be      
better if they  thronged the ,national  
,gallery2 but even the ,royal ,academy  
is evidence3  and the success of the    
sixpenny-admission plan on the days when
 it is  adopted1 and the large          
attendance at ,burlington ,house on     
,bank ,holidays1  prove that the taste  

for pictures is shared even by the least
 educated  part of the public4 ,thus    
there is no reason to be found in       
present  tendencies for apprehending a  
decay of stheticism as a result of      
material progress4 ,probably even the   
cheap papers will eventually  improve1  
both in their reading-matter and in     
their illustrations1  when it grows less
 profitable than it is at present to    
print the  worst attainable examples of 
both4    ,of course it would be very    
easy to argue that the tendency of all  
this  is rather to develop a somewhat   
higher standard of mediocrity than to   
produce brilliant examples of art in any
 manifestation4 ,beauty1 up to  a       
certain point1 can be bought4 ,the      
demand will evoke the supply4 ,but  the 
highest manifestations of the beautiful 
must be the spontaneous  product of     
subtle brains and lissom fingers working
 for ,art's  sake4 ,yet it is also not  
very difficult to show that             
circumstances  affect production even of

 the highest4 ,an example may be found  
in  the extraordinary merit of modern   
,french sculpture1 as compared with  the
 wretched work produced in ,england4 ,in
 the ,paris ,salon1 which may  be said  
to correspond with our ,royal ,academy1 
sculpture is shown  in a manner which   
renders the huddled cloak-room full of  
mediocre  marble and third-rate work in 
clay at ,burlington ,house almost too   
painful to be ludicrous4 ,however       
meritorious the work of an ,english     
statuary1 he would get no chance--does  
get no chance--in the ,academy          
exhibition3 and there is every          
justification for the opinion that  it  
is not bad work which in this country   
produces official neglect1  nor good    
work which in ,france has for many years
 led to the loving  care with which     
sculpture is shown in ,paris2 but on the
 contrary1  that the real opportunity   
which a ,french sculptor obtains has    
been  just as instrumental in fostering 
the art there as our own utter  neglect 

to appreciate sculpture of genius has   
been in stifling the  art here4 ,the    
,french treatment of sculpture has not  
merely raised the  standard of average  
production4 ,it has fostered actual     
genius4 ,even  so the opportunities     
which the social conditions of a hundred
 years  hence will afford to art will   
assuredly promote the artistic          
conditions  favourable to the           
development and fostering of genius1    
whenever genius1  in its shy1 fairy-like
 way1 contrives to be born1 no man knows
 how4 ,a  general power of appreciating 
masterpieces has never been alleged to  
be unfavourable to their production4    
,what is unfavourable to it in  a highly
 civilised age is the hurry and         
preoccupation which leave  no time for  
the appreciative faculties to employ    
themselves4 ,it  has been very well said
 that the feature most inimical to art  
in  ,american civilisation is the       
absence of a leisure class4 ,if there   
be any validity in the conclusions for  

which ,i have been trying to win        
acceptance #bi in the earlier chapters  
of this work1 the new age will  be an   
age of greatly increased leisure in all 
ranks1 and this condition  ought to     
favour art in every way as highly as the
 improvement in the  nature as well as  
in the extent of education must also    
favour it4 ,and  in this there will be  
both action and reaction--increased     
leisure  and improved appreciation      
tending to foster genius1 genius in the 
glorious perfection of its work         
generously returning the benefit by     
cultivating and refining the sthetic    
sense of the new age4    ,similarly in  
literature we may hope that the         
atrocious consequences of  instruction  
applied to a vast number of minds which 
no attempt is made  to educate will be  
only temporary4 ,popular literature and 
journalism  at the present time might   
well strike with despair the most       
hopeful  heart4 ,but when we remember   
that no attempt whatever is being made  

to  educate the faculty of imagination1 
and that we stubbornly restrict  all    
teaching to a vehement effort to cram as
 many facts as possible  into the mind  
of the scholar1 with no endeavour at all
 to improve  the qualities of that mind 
itself2 and when we grant1 as ,i think  
any  reasonably intelligent prevision of
 the future must grant1 that all  this  
will before many decades have to give   
place to really educational  processes3 
it seems evident that the future will   
gradually fling aside  in deserved      
contempt the basely illiterate products 
of the printing  press which enrich     
popular publishers and newspaper        
proprietors to-day1  redeem poetry from 
its present practical neglect1 and      
revive and enrich  the belles lettres1  
which1 even in the latter part of the   
nineteenth  century and these latter    
years of the dawning twentieth century1 
have  contrived to appear in            
masterpieces for which readers1 fit1 if 
few1  have never ceased to exist4 ,one  

result of this will be to end1 and  end 
for ever1 the idiotic and reactionary   
policy of limited editions  for         
beautiful books1 by which alone1 in many
 cases1 the production of  such books   
has been made possible4 ,as the public  
for fine literature  decently printed   
becomes gradually larger1 there will no 
longer be  any object in accentuating   
popular ignorance by withholding from   
the  greatest part of the public the    
opportunity to possess and to enjoy  the
 best work in letters that the age is   
producing1 and it will be  possible for 
the poet of delicate imagination1 the   
essayist of subtle  insight1 and the    
story-teller of restrained and modest   
genius1 to be  as well paid as the      
inventors of nightmare horrors and the  
biographers  of impossibly ingenious    
detectives apparently are to-day4       
,there remains to be considered the much
 less difficult problem of the  sort of 
progress likely to be made in the       
mechanical implements of  the fine arts4

 ,some conceivable developments in what 
may be called  the mechanism of         
literature have been discussed in the   
chapter on  journalism1 and just as it  
was there predicted that the forms of   
language hallowed by tradition and made 
classic by antiquity and  intrinsic     
beauty must always continue to be       
employed1 so in the arts  it is         
impossible to believe that the classical
 methods of expression  can ever become 
obsolete4 ,but to say this is not to    
imply that new  processes are incapable 
of being applied to the arts4 ,nothing  
which  the future may evolve as a       
modelling substance can conceivably     
render obsolete clay or make marble     
antiquated2 but innovation  is always   
possible and may always in the right    
hands yield new  tributes of loveliness4
 ,prejudice is difficult to overcome    
where  art is in question4 ,but as was  
recently seen in the invention of  solid
 oil paints1 new media are quite capable
 of creating new modes  of expression1  

and daring as is the flight of          
imagination required  by such a notion1 
may it not be conceived that the new    
methods of  intercommunication between  
mind and mind1 which may develop out of 
the new psychology of our own age1 might
 furnish the medium of a  new           
literature8    ,in music it does not    
seem necessary to surmise that the      
classical gamut  must be the last word  
of melodic thought4 ,the barrier between
 ,east  and ,west in regard to musical  
expression--a barrier as yet so firm as 
to make us feel that never the twain can
 meet--is precisely of this  nature4 ,a 
remark by an ,indian scholar educated in
 ,england1 and as well  versed in       
,western as in ,eastern art1 is pregnant
 of promise4 ,he said  to a friend of   
the present writer1 ,there is no doubt  
that in every  form of invention1 in    
every development of intellect1 you     
surpass us1  save in one4 ,your music is
 poor and mean1 compared with the music 
of  the ,east4    ,now to any ,english  

ear the music of ,asia is as yet a mere 
snarl of  incomprehensible cacophonies1 
destitute alike of melody1 harmony  or  
rhythm4 ,but that it has laws of its    
own1 intricate1 involved and  subtle1 no
 one can doubt4 ,i remember1 one night1 
finding my way into a  ,chinese         
lodging-house in an ,australian city4   
,from one of the cubicles  with which it
 was filled came what seemed to me a    
rueful noise and  a ghastful--a noise as
 if some more than usually vocal tom-cat
 were  being severely ill-used4    ,from
 time to time the noise ceased1 to be   
succeeded by energetic  disputations in 
the thin nasal and guttural tones of    
,south ,china1  themselves1 ,i knew1    
graduated in pitch1 as all ,chinese talk
 requires  to be in order to be         
understood4 ,making my way to the source
 of these  sounds1 ,i found four young  
,chinamen4 ,one of them was engaged in  
an  unabashed bathing of his lower      
limbs4 ,other two were squatting on the 
floor to enjoy the music of the fourth1 

who sat on a high packing-case1  holding
 a book in his toes1 and performing on  
an instrument something  like a violin4 
,from time to time one of the others    
would interrupt1  criticising the       
executant1 and the book would then be   
referred to  with energy and something  
as much like excitement as one ever sees
  a ,chinaman display4 ,the musician    
would extract a few notes from the      
instrument1 clearly in defence of his   
rendering4 ,then the tumult  would die  
down while the wailing of the smitten   
strings went on again4    ,now it cannot
 be impossible to fathom the obscurities
 of ,oriental  music3 and it is quite   
possible that they may1 in the future1  
yield  new harmonies and melodies as yet
 undreamed-of to the ,west2 for the     
difference is mainly1 if ,i understand  
aright what ,orientals say of it1  a    
difference of scale4 ,no doubt the      
conventions are all different4 ,i  have 
often observed in ,india that music     
considered to possess a jovial          

character is a shrill wailing in slow   
time2 whereas funereal music  always    
sounds a lively air4 ,western           
civilisation finds no difficulty  in    
comprehending the decorative art of     
,india and the ,far ,east1 nor  in      
highly appreciating it4 ,may not        
,eastern music have gifts for us  as yet
 undreamed-of8    ,but of course        
painting has a much more direct appeal  
to the emotions  than music1 and it is  
not at all difficult to imagine--nay1 it
 is  hardly possible to doubt--that a   
new manner in painting will from  time  
to time develop1 arriving out of        
newly-invented implements  and          
materials4    ,doubtless improved       
methods of reproduction will multiply   
the numbers  of those who can enjoy the 
masterpieces of the new age and of the  
old1 just as in music it will           
unquestionably be possible to repeat    
satisfactorily an indefinite number of  
times any sounds that have  once        
existed4 ,neither will any of the arts  

permanently suffer by the  mechanical   
improvements applied to them--though the
 first employment  of the latter will   
doubtless often have results which will 
be1 to  the artist1 rather terrible4    
,,chapter ,x    ,,the ,,age ,,of        
,,economies      ,the next century will 
certainly be a frugal age in the sense  
of  planetary frugality4 ,with a        
greatly-increased call on the resources 
of the world entailed by the vast       
increase of population it will  be      
absolutely necessary for us to make the 
most of what we here do  spend4 ,and    
with the more humane and gentler notions
 which will prevail  it is also certain 
that the new age will be an age of      
cheapness4 ,of  course1 cheapness is a  
purely relative matter4 ,the suit of    
clothes  which would be very cheap at   
seven guineas in the ,united ,states    
would be very dear at that price here1  
not merely because by reason  of the    
tariff clothes and other things are     
expensive in ,america1  but also because

 wages are higher there than in         
,england4 ,in spite of  the enormous    
growth of population since1 say1 the    
accession of ,queen  ,victoria1 the     
standard of comfort is much higher now  
than then1 and  prices are lower1       
because production has increased more   
quickly than  population4 ,comforts are 
cheaper1 wages are higher4 ,but the     
standard  of comfort will be higher     
still a hundred years hence4 ,workmen   
will  earn a greater share of the       
commodities of life1 and whether their  
pay be higher1 computed as money1 or    
lower1 makes no difference to the       
question of cheapness4 ,if wages are low
 commodities will be low-priced3  that  
is all4    ,and probably this is the    
turn that events will take1 though1 even
 then1  the monetary earnings of the    
worker will probably be much higher than
  they are nowadays4 ,it is doubtful    
whether so clumsy a contrivance  as     
metallic currencies1 of intrinsic values
 corresponding with their  titles1 can  

survive at all2 but of course everything
 will be computed  in terms of some     
currency or other--perhaps of an        
obsolete currency4 ,we  are apt to think
 that the steady value of gold can be   
counted upon  to remain a constant      
factor of economics4 ,but only a very   
small part  of the real business of the 
world is even now transacted with actual
  gold4 ,much the greatest part is      
transacted in paper--that is by the     
simple balancing of debits against      
credits in various clearing-houses4     
,of course1 if there were any reason to 
suppose that ,state ,socialism  would be
 the political basis of future          
institutions1 currency of  intrinsic    
value 7which practically means1 even    
now1 only gold currency7  would be      
easily dispensed with1 because almost   
every transaction would  be effected by 
means of orders on the national         
treasury1 the ,state  owning practically
 everything4 ,some visionaries have long
 included  the abolition of money in    

their schemes for the immediate economic
  improvement of the race4 ,but the     
disuse of a currency is not really a    
means to any end4 ,it is only an effect 
which may or may not arise out  of      
certain alterations in commercial       
method4 ,there are signs that the       
people are already growing tired of the 
extravagance attached to the  system of 
,state1 and even of municipal1 trading3 
and this fact makes  socialism          
improbable4 ,constant complaints are    
heard about such things  as municipal   
tramways and municipal gasworks1 and the
 proposal to  transfer the entire       
working of telephones to the ,government
 has been  fiercely opposed4 ,where the 
post-office works telephones side by    
side  with a telephone company1 as in   
,london1 there is no indication that    
the public prefers the ,government      
service before the private service2  and
 it is admitted that tramways privately 
owned work more cheaply and  yield      
better returns on their capital than    

municipal tramways4 ,any  interference  
of the ,state in matters that could     
practically be left  to private         
enterprise provokes incessant complaint4
 ,when continued and  developed1        
however1 this interference has a vicious
 habit of extending  itself into fresh  
fields4 ,having first undertaken the    
education  of the people the ,state was 
not long in carrying that system to its 
natural limit by relieving parents of   
school fees4 ,now1 free meals for  poor 
children1 or meals sold below cost1 are 
gradually becoming the  fashion2 what is
 the use of reading out lessons to      
children who are  too hungry to listen8 
,so the ,state must feed as well as     
educate4 ,from  this to the free        
clothing of school children is a very   
short step4 ,but  once the unavoidable  
sequence of such things is recognised1  
public  opinion begins to revolt1 asking
 where1 if we go on at this rate1  we   
are likely to stop1 so long as there is 
any parental duty that the  ,state has  

omitted to assume4 ,we perceive that1   
unless the process is  arrested1 the    
begetter of children will have no       
obligations left1  and the awful effects
 of relieving every member of the public
 of  all responsibility being at length 
recognised1 there is sure to be a       
reaction4 ,it is certainly not beyond   
the wit of man to contrive that  it     
shall be impossible for parents to leave
 their children untaught1  without      
,government taking upon itself the      
function of schoolmaster4 ,a  hundred   
years hence ,i hope that it will long   
have been unnecessary  to use force at  
all to compel parents to educate their  
children3  and by that time the folly of
 our 7perhaps temporarily unavoidable7  
expedients will be laughed at1 and the  
fatuity of a minimum standard  of       
proficiency1 which inevitably becomes   
the maximum standard also1  will be     
wondered at4 ,in the matter here        
selected as the most convenient  for    
illustration1 and in other matters where

 ,state powers1 or powers  devolved by  
the ,state1 are now employed in         
enterprises which do  not properly fall 
into the province of ,governments1 the  
abuses and  wastefulness of governmental
 interference are already acting as the 
best possible object-lessons against    
further interferences of the  kind which
 makes for socialism4    ,but of all the
 restraining influences inimical to     
socialism1 none will  be anything like  
so powerful in the present century as   
the new anxiety  with which the people  
will safeguard their own self-respect4  
,it must  be borne in mind1 and cannot  
be too often repeated1 that before many 
decades1 systems of education will be   
valued chiefly in proportion as  they   
tend to develop and establish character 
in the individual4 ,and  with the       
recognition of the great truth that     
character is much the  most important   
thing in the world1 there will grow up a
 great jealousy  of anything which tends
 to damage the public sense of          

individual  responsibility4 ,this       
jealousy cannot but be adverse to       
socialism1  whose ideal is to relieve   
the individual of all responsibilities  
and  to throw them upon committees4     
,not that the value of organisation and 
combination for various objects  will at
 all be lost sight of4 ,but we shall    
perceive that voluntary  combination is 
a form of self-government vastly more   
friendly to the  preservation of        
self-respect than legislative action1   
and also a form  much less likely to be 
oppressive4 ,it will be seen1 for       
instance1  that it is more desirable for
 working men to fix1 through their      
trade-unions1 the hours of labour in    
various industries1 arranging  to meet  
exceptional circumstances where the     
latter arise1 than for  ,parliament to  
decree that nobody shall work more than 
eight hours  a day4 ,neither is the     
panacea of compulsory arbitration in    
trade  disputes likely to be a feature  
of future politics1 because we shall    

certainly not be long before we perceive
 that1 while it is no doubt  quite easy 
to compel employers and employed to     
submit their respective  cases to a     
tribunal appointed by law1 there is no  
known way in which  the award of such a 
tribunal can be enforced1 and if there  
were1 the  effect of its employment     
would be almost intolerably injurious to
 the  commerce of the country4 ,what    
will happen a hundred years hence is    
that trade disputes will have           
disappeared1 because all the workers    
will be practically their own employers4
    ,consequently free contract and not 
socialism will be the basis of  the     
political system of a hundred years     
hence1 and the standard of  comfort will
 be adjusted in the same way as         
everything else4 ,but in  order that    
this standard may be as high as the     
advanced humanity of  the new age will  
certainly demand for a population vastly
 increased1  it will be necessary that  
all the resources of the planet be made 

the  most of4 ,that motive power1 one of
 the most important1 if not the most    
important of all these resources1 should
 be economically produced is1  as has   
already been said1 an absolute          
essential4 ,when we make the most  of   
the sources of power1 and are able to   
apply power in convenient  and portable 
ways to all sorts of work at present    
done by hand1 one of  the greatest      
economies conceivable will have been    
effected4 ,probably  muscle1 as an      
element of workmanship1 will become     
quite obsolete1  though muscular        
strength will be developed by athletics 
as a recreation  and a safeguard to the 
health of the race4 ,here again         
self-respect will  be sedulously        
nurtured1 for nothing fosters it so much
 as a man's sense  of his inherent      
bodily power4 ,all sorts of wastefully  
laborious methods  of labour will be    
superseded1 in the same way as the steam
 hammer  has superseded the sledge      
hammer4 ,with the perfect development of

  power-production achieved1 a great    
deal of the dirtiness of manufacture    
will vanish3 and moreover1 a use will   
have been discovered for every          
by-product of every manufacture4 ,we are
 hideously wasteful as yet3 and         
wastefulness makes for dirt4 ,one       
perceives this at once on comparing a   
factory where the by-products are of a  
nature to be utilised directly1  with   
one where these products are of small   
value4 ,a goldsmith's shop  is a clean  
place compared with the gasworks of even
 a modern town3  but these again are    
clean compared with what they used to be
 before  the various chemical uses of   
coal-tar and gas-liquor were discovered4
    ,in the planning of machinery1      
notwithstanding the fact that power     
will be obtained at a minimum of        
expense1 all contrivances which         
economise force will be highly valued4  
,we have been increasingly  valuing them
 ever since steam first became important
 as a source  of motive power4 ,early   

machines in the ,patents' ,museum at    
,south  ,kensington exhibit the most    
extraordinary recklessness in the waste 
of power4 ,considering the feebleness of
 the motive force available1  one would 
have expected that every means would be 
sought to minimise  friction4 ,but      
instead1 the force was transmitted by   
contrivances which1  to a modern eye1   
seemed deliberately contrived to        
introduce as much  friction as possible4
 ,every year brings out fresh inventions
 for the  avoidance of friction3 and    
still we are but upon the very threshold
  of the subject4 ,it was only in #aijd 
that a party of railway engineers  was  
entertained by a patentee who wished to 
show them the saving in  coal per       
train-mile which can be saved by a new  
bearing for passenger  coaches1 and the 
superior smoothness 7which is of course 
a factor in  the economy7 of their      
running4 ,hardly any vehicle except a   
bicycle  or a trotting buggy is yet     
constructed with any serious attempt to 

save friction at the axles4 ,the number 
of industrial machines to  which        
ball-bearings might be applied with     
great economy of power  is enormous4    
,but ball-bearings are very little used4
 ,it is probably  considered as yet that
 the saving in coal would not pay for   
the working  expenses connected with    
them and with other improvements4 ,but  
as  machinery is further improved       
economies at present merely theoretical 
will become practical and remunerative4 
,in a hundred years' time  we shall     
certainly be able to make generally     
profitable the use  of many devices as  
yet applicable only to delicate and     
exceptional  machines1 and shall be able
 to use much power which at present runs
 to  waste4 ,every time a locomotive is 
stopped there is a great waste of  power
 in the operation of the brakes1 because
 it is not worth while  to adopt any    
contrivance for utilising it4 ,it       
disappears1 as heat1  and is lost4 ,many
 similar wastages could be cited1 and   

engineers  would scoff at the citation1 
on the ground that the loss is not worth
  saving4 ,but it will be worth saving a
 hundred years hence4 ,we shall  not be 
able to afford any waste4 ,the world    
will have to be worked1  as we say1 for 
all it is worth4    ,of course all sorts
 of other wastes will be avoided through
 the natural  progress of discovery and 
the natural development of thought4     
,illness  is a waste4 ,illness will be  
much less common in a hundred years'    
time4 ,a man who eats and consumes the  
world's products without  contributing  
to them will be too expensive a luxury  
for the new  age to indulge itself with3
 and the present excuse for a leisure   
class--already scorned in ,america--that
 a rich and leisured class  fosters and 
patronises the arts1 will be absurd4    
,all classes will  foster and patronise 
the arts4 ,for1 just as we shall see    
that idleness  is waste 7and even more  
injurious to the idler than to his      
fellows71  so we shall also see that    

overwork is a waste1 because the        
legitimate  purpose of human endeavour  
is not wealth1 but happiness4 ,when all 
work1  all will be able to play4        
,planetary economy will be a determining
 factor in the change of diet  which the
 coming century must inevitably witness4
 ,such a wasteful food  as animal flesh 
cannot survive3 and even apart from the 
moral necessity  which will compel      
mankind1 for its own preservation1 to   
abandon the  use of alcohol1 the direct 
and indirect wastefulness of alcohol    
will  make it impossible for beverages  
containing it to be tolerated4 ,very    
likely tobacco will follow it4 ,we are  
already in sight of legislation  to     
restrain the use of tobacco by the      
young4 ,it will probably be  unnecessary
 for the law to prohibit its use by     
adults4 ,the frugal adult  of the new   
age will abandon it unbidden1 the change
 taking place as  smoothly and silently 
as the process from the universal       
drunkenness  of our great-grandfathers  

to the relative sobriety of ourselves1  
a process of which it is surprising that
 anyone can fail to perceive  that the  
natural end must be the total disuse of 
alcoholic drinks4 ,all  things work     
their way to their natural conclusion1  
and there is no  more fertile source of 
sociological blindness than the fallacy 
which  treats certain phenomena of      
society as static1 whereas all phenomena
  of society are really in the dynamic  
state1 and always must be so4    ,in    
such matters as the exhaustion of the   
soil1 and the reckless  waste of wood1  
our present practice will certainly be  
reformed4 ,there  will be great         
improvements in agricultural chemistry1 
necessitated  by the disappearance of   
animal manure4 ,the obsolescence of the 
horse is already in sight2 probably we  
ourselves shall see the day  when the   
horse will cease to be employed except  
in the organised  material of war3 and  
as soon as we cease to eat animals we   
shall  cease to herd cattle1 sheep and  

poultry4 ,but some means will have  to  
be found for returning to the soil the  
materials we take out of  it4 ,of course
 the idiotic wastefulness of many       
systems of sewage  disposal1 and the    
dangers1 inconveniences and degrading   
occupations  associated with existing   
alternatives1 will be rectified4 ,by    
improved  agricultural methods1 lands at
 present unutilised will be brought     
under cultivation3 and the wasteful and 
selfish reservation of  game preserves1 
deer forests and excessive              
pleasure-grounds will  have to be       
abolished--not by legislative enactment1
 but probably  by spontaneous social    
developments2 by the natural            
development1 in  short1 of economy in   
the world's possessions4 ,a hundred     
years hence  we shall cease to behave as
 though the resources of the planet were
  illimitable and could be wasted at    
will4 ,in the succession of the  ages   
the spendthrift will have given birth to
 the miser1 reversing the  usual order  

of generations4 ,no doubt the attention 
concentrated upon  agriculture as a     
consequence of the greatly increased use
 of vegetable  and cereal foods will    
have1 as one of its consequences1 the   
discovery  of new means for improving   
all sorts of crops--means of which even 
the  wonderful achievements of the      
scientific agriculture of the present   
day do not contain even the first germs4
 ,we shall also1 perhaps1  find means   
for avoiding the terrible losses and    
wastage entailed by  climatic accidents4
 ,at all events1 irrigation will be     
perfected1 and  probably we shall be    
able by acclimatisation and modification
 to find  uses for crops that will      
flourish during that portion of the year
 when1  in temperate climates1 the land 
at present lies idle4 ,this will both   
stimulate and further necessitate the   
improvements in agricultural  chemistry 
already mentioned4    ,as the           
combustions of solids will no longer be 
a general method of  obtaining heat1 we 

shall greatly economise wood2 and the   
wickedly  mischievous word inexhaustible
 will not be applied to timber  regions 
like the ,rocky ,mountain district of   
,canada4 ,arboriculture will  become a  
more practical art than it as yet shows 
any signs of being2  and along with     
careful afforestation will go skilled   
improvement in  tree-growing4 ,we shall 
replace all the trees we use by better  
trees1  better cultivated4 ,even so1    
however1 there will have to be devised  
great economies in the use of           
wood--economies like the recent         
invention  of a method by which1 instead
 of being wastefully sawn into planks1  
a tree-trunk can be cut up spirally1 so 
that almost the whole of it  may be     
used4 ,in many places where wood is now 
employed in the arts1  metals will      
doubtless be used instead1 their greater
 neatness and  durability making it     
advisable thus to substitute them1 for  
reasons of  convenience as well as      
economy2 and probably new alloys1 into  

which  the lighter metals1 as aluminium1
 will enter1 may give us increased      
strength without increased weight1 which
 will again be an economy1  because it  
will save power4 ,but even so1 the      
world's expenditure of  wood will       
continue to be enormous4    ,war has    
been alluded to above4 ,war is too      
wasteful1 as well as too  imbecilely    
uncivilised1 to survive this century4   
,it may be well to  inquire as to the   
manner in which its abolition is most   
likely to be  brought about4 ,we may    
take it for granted that no sudden      
political  or revolutionary movement    
will abolish the physical conflict of   
peoples4 ,all the arts which brutalise  
the practical polemist will not  be     
abandoned at a moment's notice on the   
bidding of any potentate or  combination
 of potentates4 ,to conceive of them as 
thus abandoned is to  overlook the whole
 nature of political change4 ,it is     
absurd 7as ,herbert  ,spencer remarks7  
to assume that out of a community       

morally imperfect  and intellectually   
imperfect1 there may in some way be had 
legislative  regulation that is not     
proportionately imperfect4 ,but it would
 be  equally absurd to believe that the 
moral and intellectual advance which    
our present tendencies show to be       
gradually taking place--an advance      
certain to be greatly accelerated during
 the middle half of the next  hundred   
years--can fail to put a stop to war as 
a political device4    ,war will        
probably not be dispensed with in       
response to any great and  sudden revolt
 of the world's conscience against the  
bloodshed and  other evils much worse   
than bloodshed which it entails--of     
which  indeed it actually consists4 ,the
 world knows quite well already  that   
war is wicked1 wasteful and silly3 if it
 were possible for a                    
suddenly-exasperated realisation of this
 to take an instantaneous  effect1 we   
could and should similarly abolish      
numerous other evils  which we show     

every disposition to tolerate for some  
time yet4 ,the  fact that single        
families are able to hold wealth in     
enormous excess  of the maximum amount  
which it can possibly be good for the   
community  that individuals should hold1
 is such an evil4 ,the ,yellow          
journalism  of ,america and ,england is 
another evil just about as difficult1 or
 as  easy1 to abolish at a stroke as    
war1 and not much less injurious4 ,the  
manipulation of tariffs and currencies  
to suit the greedy aims of              
manufacturers1 landowners and           
capitalists is another evil which is    
constantly experienced or threatened in 
one part of the world or  another2 and  
if as a race we were yet enlightened    
enough to utter  that great ,peace2 be  
still6 which must some day be breathed  
over the  troubled waters of            
international diplomacy1 we should be   
enlightened  enough to rid ourselves of 
these other evils4 ,but instead1 the    
change  must be gradually worked up to4 

,it is not even at all certain that the 
whole world will at one given moment    
decide to abandon war4 ,it is not       
necessarily the case that the first     
nation enlightened enough to lay  down  
the sword would immediately fall under  
the oppression of its armed  neighbours1
 as ,bismarck prophesied1 and would no  
doubt have practised  to arrange4 ,nor  
need we assume1 as so many have thought 
it necessary  to believe1 that universal
 peace can only follow the exhaustion of
  universal war1 the dove winging her   
first flight over the shambles of       
,armageddon4 ,i do not for an instant   
believe that the actual horrors of  war 
are the likely or possible source of    
peace2 on the contrary1 war  always     
tends to breed war1 partly through      
international exasperation1  partly     
through the unashamed and cynical       
self-seeking of professional  warriors4 
,peace hath her outrages no less severe 
than war4 ,it is  against the           
preparation for war1 rather than against

 war itself1  that we shall revolt4     
,of course the increased urbanity of    
future thought1 the tenderer  conscience
 of the future1 will help the cause of  
peace4 ,the world's  rulers will be more
 humane1 less reckless than those set up
 by the  inferior morality and intellect
 of the present age4 ,it is not from    
the rulers1 but from the ruled1 however1
 that peace will come4 ,it is  the      
peoples that will refuse to be the      
supporters of idle1 useless1  profligate
 and dangerous millions1 trained to no  
duty but slaughter1  skilful only in the
 service of national crime4 ,every      
decade will see  the burden of armament 
grow heavier4 ,in every decade fresh    
efforts will  be made to lift the weight
 of them off the rich1 the governing    
classes1  and throw it upon the poor1   
the governed classes4 ,the workers will 
be taxed1 and their taxes manipulated to
 their disadvantage4 ,and they  must pay
 in person as well as purse4 ,there is  
no civilised and highly  developed      

country in the world that can possibly  
escape universal  military service      
within the next quarter of a century1   
unless it be  the ,united ,states3 and  
only that country if the people of the  
,united  ,states abandon absolutely     
their present dreams of empire and      
renounce  the luxury of an effective    
,foreign ,office4 ,as for ourselves1 it 
is  most likely universal naval service 
that we shall have to endure4 ,and  the 
rulers of the nations will play the     
chess of diplomacy1 using the  peoples  
as their pawns1 until the pawns1 grown  
wiser than the bishops1  and more agile 
than the knights1 reach the eighth      
square of intellect  and become         
sovereign in themselves4 ,it is not by  
high diplomacy  that war will be        
abandoned1 but by the will of the       
workers4 ,only a  very careless and     
unthoughtful observer of the last       
fifteen years'  history can have failed 
to note the steady growth of            
international  solidarity in labour     

questions4 ,the trade societies of      
different  nations frequently contribute
 to each other's strike-funds3 they     
constantly communicate and confer1 and  
they do so with increasing  frequency   
and effectiveness every time there is   
any special advantage  to be seen in    
joint action against the common         
enemy--greed4 ,conceive  for an instant 
what is going to be the effect of this  
when working  men and women1 infinitely 
the most important and most worthy part 
of  the race1 are no longer degraded by 
stupid restrictions of education1  no   
longer brought up on the insane system  
of striving only for a  stuffed memory  
instead of for a developed character1   
and have learned  to think about their  
political duties instead of only        
transacting them  without thought1      
without any possible opportunity of     
learning how to  think4 ,the whole mass 
of workers throughout the world will    
come to  an understanding4 ,they have no
 possible conflicting interests which   

can compare in importance with the      
interests which1 for their class1  are  
identical all the world over4 ,already  
the improved morality of  the peoples   
will have yielded improved governments1 
more enlightened  parliaments1 wiser    
statesmanship4 ,the administrative organ
 will  only need to be properly         
stimulated by the solid agreement of    
workers  throughout civilisation4 ,there
 is never the least sign of             
international  or racial jealousy among 
working men in their international      
relations1  and what1 by reason of the  
clash of international interests and the
  danger of national aggression         
diplomatists could not accomplish1 the  
irresistible volition of the unanimous  
peoples will force upon the  cabinets of
 the world4 ,it will come about by      
degrees4 ,the preparations  for it will 
be long visible1 long misunderstood4    
,and we shall usefully  tinker at the   
question1 often stave off little dangers
 of war by  arbitrations1 treaties of   

mutual understanding1 peace conferences 
and  the like2 and though probably no   
great war necessary to reconcile the    
conflicting destinies of peoples was    
ever prevented by such means1  we shall 
avoid many fights which might have      
arisen out of the vain  notions of      
prestige1 dignity1 and national         
self-sufficiency4 ,but  once means have 
been found for the destruction of the   
machinery of  war1 the worst danger of  
war will have been got rid of3 and then 
the  practice we shall have had in      
settling disputes peacefully will be  of
 the greatest service to us4    ,when   
the armies and the navies of the world  
are disbanded there will be  a condition
 of affairs which it is highly necessary
 to consider4 ,in all  nations entitled 
to rank as world-powers there is an     
enormous military  class4 ,when the     
armies go home for the last time1 and   
magazine rifles  and machine guns become
 museum objects and nothing more2 when  
it is no  longer conceived to be the    

greatest service a man can render to his
  country to organise clubs wherein men 
may inexpensively learn how to  shoot1  
so as to be able to kill each other with
 a creditable precision  when the chance
 comes2 then there will arise the       
problem of how to  employ these         
disbanded drones3 and to some this      
problem has appeared to  present acute  
difficulties on account of the          
labour-problem involved4    ,but to     
apprehend anything beyond the most      
transient embarrassments from  this     
cause is surely to misconceive the whole
 subject of economics4 ,the  men at     
present withdrawn from productive labour
 by employment1  either transiently 7as 
in countries where conscription is      
used71  or more or less permanently 7as 
in ,england71 have to be fed1 clothed   
and housed in any event2 and they can   
only be thus supplied with the          
commodities of life by the labour of    
other men4 ,what the term of their      
military service happens to be is       

immaterial to the subject4 ,whether     
there are standing armies and navies    
with long or short service1 and  a      
reserve2 or armies and navies served for
 three years by successive  drafts2 the 
amount of labour withdrawn in any       
community is at any one  period the same
 in that community4 ,the return to civil
 life of the  volunteer armies employed 
in the ,united ,states during the ,civil
 ,war  and the war of the deliverance of
 ,cuba did not produce troublesome      
economic conditions2 and only those     
persons who think that a society  is    
enriched by the circulation of money    
spent in wasteful expenditure  like the 
fireworks and banquets consumed in      
celebrating an event  like the visit of 
a foreign potentate1 or commemorating   
more or less  irrelevantly the failure  
of ,gunpowder treason and plot1 can     
imagine  that a nation would be         
impoverished by the vast accession to   
its  productive power yielded by the    
abolition of armaments4 ,similarly1  to 

think that the suppression of ,woolwich 
arsenal and the closing  of ,krupp's gun
 factory would be an industrial calamity
 instead of  an enormous saving of      
national money1 is to adopt the         
uninstructed  view of politics which    
conceives of governments as             
self-supported  and self-created        
institutions whose expenditure is a gift
 to the  people2 instead of as being    
organisations paid by the people out of 
earnings which would otherwise be       
enjoyed by themselves4 ,this sort  of   
conception1 fatuous as it appears when  
once reduced to logical  terms1 is      
common enough4 ,whenever any object of  
popular desire  appears inaccessible we 
are always being told that the          
,government  ought to provide it--as if 
,government were a sort of deity capable
 of  producing wealth from somewhere    
outside the world4 ,but such notions    
have only to be for a moment examined in
 order that their fallacy may  become   
manifest and palpable2 and it is equally

 easy to see that the  wealth-producing 
power of the men composing armies would 
be a direct  gift to the community of   
the world if armies were abolished1 and 
that  the moneys formerly1 but no       
longer1 expended upon their             
accoutrements1  weapons and sustenance  
would be so much waste obviated4 ,here  
will1  in fact1 be one of the many      
economies of a hundred years hence4     
,it will be convenient to digress1 in   
passing1 in order to notice one  very   
curious contention sometimes rather     
fancifully introduced into  discussions 
on the subject of universal peace4      
,it is stated that war is an inevitable 
feature of national life1 and  that it  
exercises a beneficent effect upon      
national character--that it  fosters    
manliness and a respect for the virile  
attributes of courage1  steadfastness   
and self-respect2 that nations which    
have abandoned  the art of war sink into
 effeminacy1 slothfulness and           
destructive  luxury2 and that the peace 

of the nations1 if it ever comes1 will  
be associated with a terrible           
deterioration of the race4 ,as to the   
notion that anything can prevent the    
abolition of armed conflict as  a means 
of settling the differences of peoples1 
we may very well be  satisfied to await 
the issue4 ,no one who recognises the   
steady growth  of humanitarian feeling2 
no one who remembers1 even to deplore1  
our  growing sentimentalism2 no one who 
has insight enough to perceive  that    
progress1 at an ever-increasing speed1  
must inevitably be  accompanied by      
advanced intellectuality1 increased     
self-restraint and  greater wisdom1 can 
doubt that a process so illogical1      
barbarous and  brutalising as battle    
must be banished1 as well by the new    
humanity as  by the economic necessities
 of our race4 ,but the notion of        
deploring1  on moral grounds1 the       
assured coming of a reform so salutary1 
calls  for more strenuous reprobation4  
,one would have thought it evident1     

from the popular effect of the war in   
,south ,africa1 that1 so far from  being
 a matter for self-congratulation1 this 
highly necessary war was  a terrible    
lesson in the brutalising effect of     
armed conflict1 not  alone on the men   
actually engaged1 but also on the people
 who remained  at home4 ,indeed1 since  
it is only a comparatively small        
fraction of a  community that can ever  
be personally active in military        
operations1  the effect on the          
home-stayers is evidently what the      
upholders  of war as a civilising       
influence must be thinking of4 ,it would
 be  ridiculous1 and it is quite        
unnecessary to the argument1 to deny the
  fine qualities of determination1 of   
fortitude before national disaster1  and
 of calm confidence in the prowess of   
the nation's arms which1 in  the bulk of
 the ,english people1 the ,transvaal war
 called forth4 ,it  would be just as    
idle to deny the sublime exhibition of  
patriotism  and self-abnegation which1  

on one side at least1 was provoked by   
the  ,russo-,japanese war4 ,but it would
 also be foolish not to recognise  the  
quite evident brutalisation which has   
followed our war in ,south  ,africa1 the
 remarkable increase in crimes of       
murderous violence1 and  especially of  
double crimes--murder and suicide--which
 has lately  occurred4 ,the true source 
of these increased evils is the reflex  
effect of familiarity 7either at first  
hand1 or more remotely through          
newspaper reading and through the       
personal narrative of returned          
soldiers7 with the notion of violent    
slaying1 and the diminished  sense of   
the sanctity of human life which        
accompanies the spectacle  of           
man-slaying by wholesale held up to     
popular admiration1 and indeed          
necessitated and justified by the       
conditions of war and the duty of       
patriotism4 ,no doubt it is true 7as has
 been finely said7 that there  is one   
thing which is worse for a nation than  

war1 and that is that  a nation should  
be so afraid of war as to submit to     
aggression rather  than fight in defence
 of its rights4 ,but to subscribe to    
this doctrine1  which no rational       
thinker will dispute1 is a very         
different thing from  agreeing that the 
nations would be otherwise than         
strengthened and  civilised by the      
universal abandonment of battle4        
,probably we are as  yet some decades   
from the time when we shall have        
sufficient nobility  of sentiment to be 
entirely agreed1 without a single       
dissentient1  in recognising the        
enormous service to national and        
international  morality which ,mr       
,gladstone rendered when he had the     
courage to  withdraw from the conflict  
with the ,boers after ,majuba4 ,it will 
be long before we are logical enough to 
see that the fact of this  magnanimity  
having been basely abused does not in   
the least detract  from its moral weight
 and moral beneficence4 ,but the        

influence of such  an act cannot be     
without effect upon progress4 ,it is by 
such acts1  and the possibility of their
 glad acceptance by nations of          
sufficient  moral elevation to perform  
them1 that war will be banished4    ,in 
the meantime1 while noble virtues can be
 displayed by nations in  time of       
combat1 and by civilians as well as     
soldiers1 it is a new  doctrine that we 
are asked to accept when we are told    
that there is  anything individually    
elevating to the character in sitting at
 home  while someone else goes out and  
fights for that home's protection4 ,one 
of the least satisfactory features of   
public interest in games of  manly      
endeavour and endurance1 games of danger
 and violent effort1  like football and 
cricket1 is that of the very greatly    
increased  numbers who follow these     
games and watch the fortunes of selected
  teams in the ,cup contests only a very
 small proportion play the  games       
themselves4 ,thousands of young men     

hardly see a football match  from       
,september to ,april1 though they keenly
 follow the admirable  descriptions of  
them in their sporting papers4 ,it is   
taking a very  short-sighted view to    
applaud the growing interest in         
athletics1 which1  just now1 we show1 as
 a sign of our manliness4 ,not very much
 endurance  is required in order to bet 
on the success of a favourite team3 and 
to  assist1 as a contributor to         
gate-moneys1 in paying selected athletes
  to endure risk and violent fatigue in 
a game which one does not play  for     
oneself is exactly on a level with      
applauding the exploits of an  army to  
which one contributes nothing but taxes4
    ,moreover1 this beneficent effect of
 actual war-in-progress could only      
exercise itself during limited and      
distressful periods4 ,no nation is  able
 to be seriously at war1 in modern      
conditions1 for very long1 and  great   
periods of recuperation must intervene  
between war and war2 the  combatant     

nations being meanwhile subject to      
aggressions from keepers  of the peace1 
because they are not in a position to   
fight again with  a fresh and an        
unexhausted adversary4 ,consequently1   
any beneficent  effect must be expected 
to be exercised chiefly in time of      
peace4 ,and1  in practice1 it does not  
seem to be the case that nations in     
which  the military standard is high and
 the military class is exalted above    
the civil class1 show always in any     
remarkable manner the virtues  supposed 
to be fostered by the manly art of war4 
,no one would contend  that the average 
,german is more self-reliant and        
self-respecting1  quicker to decide on  
action in a moment of stress1 braver1   
manlier1  more enduring of reverses of  
fortune1 than the average ,american4    
,yet  ,germany1 where military officers 
are held in such esteem that they  can  
behave with unrestrained arrogance and  
brutality towards civilians  in public  
places without provoking any signs of   

popular indignation1  unless when their 
acts are commented upon in the socialist
 newspapers2  and can even inflict      
disgusting and degrading indignities    
upon private  soldiers without being    
officially punished1 except where they  
have  carried brutality to the limit    
7and they are punished with the         
greatest tenderness even then73         
,germany1 ,i say1 ought to show the     
virtues of a military state at their    
best4 ,whereas in ,america1 where  there
 is practically no standing army1 and   
where military titles1  the residue of  
wars conducted almost entirely by       
volunteer and  amateur soldiers1 are so 
common that the very holders of them    
treat  these titles as subjects of      
humorous depreciation1 the people are   
conspicuous for manliness1 for high     
endurance1 for patience under the       
reverses of fortune1 for temperance3 and
 in the average of physical  courage    
,america far excels any military nation4
 ,there seems to be no  reason at all   

for apprehending that the obsolescence  
of militarism  will have a deleterious  
effect on the manhood of the race3 while
  there are incontestable evidences that
 it will greatly foster the  equally    
important virtues of gentleness1        
humanity1 and respect for  the weak4    
,thus1 while1 for reasons of sentiment  
and common sense1  war is certain to    
become obsolete before the end of this  
century1  we shall find in the release  
of the funds and of the labour hitherto 
employed in the organisation of war one 
of the greatest economies of  an age    
which in all things will be thrifty3 and
 there is no reason at  all to apprehend
 difficulty in providing for the warrior
 who finds his  occupation gone1 when we
 have so reorganised 7as we must        
reorganise7  our social system1 that no 
man will live in excessive luxury on the
  labour of his fellows1 but that all   
will be contributors to a common        
frugality4                ,,chapter ,,xi
    ,,the ,,law ,a ,,hundred ,,years    

,,hence      ,using the figurative      
words1 the law1 in their widest possible
  sense1 to mean the entire system which
 governs the relations of the           
individuals in a community with each    
other and with the community at  large1 
we can easily see that in a century's   
time many changes of law  will have     
taken place4 ,if it be true that        
legislative restraints are  mostly      
necessitated by the ill-conceived       
energies of mankind1 and  that the right
 function of the law is to assure to    
each citizen the  largest possible      
liberty that is consistent with the     
equal liberty of  every other citizen   
and of all1 then it will be right to    
believe that  the great extension of    
general intelligence1 and the equally   
great  extension of general morality1   
anticipated for the next century1  will 
render many forms of existing restraint 
obsolete because  unnecessary4          
,regarding offences both against the    
person and against  property as         

manifestations1 for the most part1 of   
unintelligence1 we  may expect that     
increased intelligence will lead to a   
diminution of  their number4 ,in        
applying statistics to an examination of
 the question  whether and to what      
extent improvements in the general      
standard of  education have in the past 
diminished crime1 and consequently how  
far crime is likely to be still further 
diminished in the future1  we must be   
careful to keep in sight two            
considerations--first1 that  an         
increased vigilance and elaboration on  
the part of authority  may easily make  
it appear that crime has failed to      
diminish under  educational influences1 
when it is only the detection and       
punishment  of crime that have been     
rendered more perfect2 and second1 that 
if  one kind of education have not had  
all the salutary effects expected  of   
it1 it does not follow that a different 
kind will not have all  this expected   
efficacy and more4 ,manifestly1         

legislation against  crimes formerly    
outside the reach of the law--that      
creation of new  offences which one     
hears rather foolishly objected to--will
 increase  statistics of crime1 if we   
compute crime in terms of               
prison-admissions2  and the fact that   
such increase1 due entirely to          
legislation1 has taken  place           
concurrently with some other reform1    
such as the improvement of  education1  
obviously does not entitle us to connect
 the increase with  the reform4 ,the    
latter may even be operating in exactly 
the opposite  manner1 despite the       
statistics4 ,a number of new offences   
were created1  for instance1 by what is 
called in ,england the ,criminal ,law   
,amendment  ,act1 and it would be easy  
for a shocked observer of prison        
statistics  to observe1 in a period of  
years during which the administration of
  that useful act was being perfected1  
dreadful increases in the crimes  which 
it represses2 whereas the fact probably 

is that crime of this  sort has         
diminished1 largely through the action  
of the very causes  which would make it 
appear to have been increasing4         
,therefore1 if  anyone still argues that
 education as a means of diminishing    
crime has  proved a failure1 it is not  
upon judicial statistics that he must   
base  his contentions4 ,probably that   
argument is obsolete3 but if it were    
not1 and if it were allowed all the     
validity of which it is capable1  it    
would still furnish no ground whatever  
from which to throw doubt  upon the     
expectation that in a hundred years'    
time crime will have  diminished very   
greatly1 as a result of the improved    
education of the  new era4 ,for indeed1 
as education is at present conducted1 it
 would  be rather a remarkable thing    
that it should have any effect upon     
criminality at all4 ,what influence     
increased intelligence may have  in     
restraining one part of the population  
from the desire to commit  crime might  

easily be neutralised by the effect1 on 
another portion1  of the increased craft
 and subtlety imparted by education4    
,knowledge  can facilitate crime as well
 as deter from it4 ,a man who has not   
learned to write1 it has been shrewdly  
remarked1 will not commit  forgery3 but 
that is not a reason for thinking that a
 knowledge of  writing tends to promote 
criminality4 ,the man who1 being        
7perhaps  unduly7 proficient in it1     
becomes a forger1 would not necessarily 
have remained blameless if he had       
continued illiterate4 ,he would very    
probably have been a thief1 which does  
not require penmanship3 but  on the     
other hand1 the increased facility of   
obtaining employment  when one can write
 might just as easily have saved him    
from some  temptations to dishonesty4   
,it is not very rational to expect a    
great  moral effect upon character from 
the mere acquisition of knowledge4 ,but 
from the moment we conceive that means  
and methods of education in the  future 

will be valued in proportion to their   
influence in developing  character1 and 
especially intelligent self-control1 it 
is impossible  to doubt that the new    
teaching will be among the most potent  
of moral  influences4 ,one benefit      
derived from this will be the           
possibility  of abandoning legislative  
restrictions whose effect is inimical to
  self-control and to intelligent       
self-protection4 ,it will no longer be  
necessary to protect the people by law  
from the consequences of their  own     
foolishness1 and we shall have learned  
that it is much better  for the public  
to be encouraged to safeguard its own   
interests than  to be relieved of the   
necessity to do so4    ,anticipating1   
therefore1 that many existing forms of  
restraint will  have become obsolete    
because unnecessary1 we may very fairly 
ask  ourselves whether1 in an improved  
moral and intellectual atmosphere1  it  
will not have been found advisable to   
abolish other restraints and            

requisitions as a directly remedial     
measure4 ,the suggestion may1 at the    
moment1 appear chimerical1 but so must  
every intelligent anticipation  of a    
coming time appear to anyone who        
approaches the subject without  allowing
 for the difference of conditions1 and  
conceives of changes  which will take   
place so gradually as to be almost      
unperceived1  as if they were to occur  
per saltum1 without any process of slow 
moral preparation4 ,so would nearly     
every social condition of the  present  
age have appeared individually to a     
citizen of the world  of #ahjj1 if1     
possessing intelligence to foresee it1  
he lacked the  imagination necessary to 
foresee the accompanying and subservient
  conditions4 ,that public opinion      
should be so shocked by the execution   
of capital punishment1 that only the    
most atrocious murders are thus         
punished--the sentence1 where there is  
any real extenuation at all1  being     
habitually commuted nowadays--is a      

condition which would hardly  have      
suggested itself even to the most alert 
imaginations in an age  where small     
thefts were constantly punished by      
death4 ,our sense of  what may be called
 the accidental influences of punitive  
measures is  even yet so little         
developed that only a small minority of 
the public  at the present day is able  
to perceive that the deterrent effect of
  flogging1 as a punishment for violent 
robbery1 is dearly purchased at  the    
expense of the brutalising relish with  
which sentences of flogging  are        
welcomed by the public1 and even on the 
judicial bench1 where  expressions of   
regret that the same penalty cannot be  
inflicted for  other crimes are still   
common4 ,yet it would seem obvious      
enough that  the sanction given to acts 
of violence by the deliberate adoption  
of  hanging and flogging by the law1    
which is supposed to be the exemplar  of
 public morality1 must tend nearly as   
much to perpetuate crimes  of violence  

as fear of these chastisements to deter4
 ,in attempting  to foresee the spirit  
of legislation in the future it is      
absolutely  necessary to foresee        
concurrently the spirit of the          
communities by  which the legislation   
will be adopted4 ,anticipating1 as we   
cannot fail  to anticipate1 a sedulous  
care for moral effects in education1 we 
must  anticipate an equal care in       
legislation4 ,it would be unworthy of   
the  supremely logical age which        
assuredly is coming1 to use all possible
  measures in the schoolroom to foster  
in childhood self-reliance and          
intelligent self-protection1 while      
continuing by grandmotherly  government 
of the people to remove as often as     
possible any need for  self-reliance in 
the adult4 ,the advantages attending    
little bits of  protective law-making   
often blind us to their ill-effects4 ,it
 is no  doubt very useful to provide1 as
 we do provide1 that condensed milk1    
when deprived of its full proportion of 

cream1 shall only be sold in  packages  
notifying that deprivation4 ,if we did  
not do this children  would be starved  
by their parents' ignorance4 ,but the   
necessity for  this enactment is at     
least in part created by the existence  
of a host  of similar laws1 the         
aggregate effect of which is to give a  
general  impression that anything sold  
as food is good and useful unless it    
bears some warning to the contrary2 and 
meantime every evasion of  commercial   
morality which does not come under      
legislative restraint  is naturally held
 to be perfectly justifiable--not at all
 a good  thing for commercial morality4 
,now it would be a highly perilous      
measure to abolish1 at a stroke1 all    
protective legislation against          
adulterated or impoverished foods4 ,we  
have built up a social condition  in    
which every man thinks himself entitled 
to be protected against  such frauds4   
,but in a community which has been      
taught to take care of  itself1 and     

protect itself against frauds by its own
 intelligence1  such protections would  
be retrograde and injurious4 ,the aim of
  legislatures in the next century will 
be to foster all kinds of               
self-reliance4 ,they will perceive that 
even the high importance of  a reform   
which can be more or less easily        
enforced by law does not  compensate for
 the bad effect of thus enforcing it1 if
 it could be  maintained by the         
spontaneous vigilance of a              
wisely-nurtured public2  and the        
degrading effect of superfluous law will
 be more dreaded than  the temporary    
dangers against which the law might     
protect the citizens4    ,nevertheless1 
it is inevitable that1 during a period  
more or less  extended1 material        
progress will be accompanied by numerous
 legal  enactments such as a perfect    
state would dispense with1 and possibly 
the end of all of them will not have    
been reached even in a century's  time4 
,how invention tends to promote         

legislation has recently been           
noticeable in the new laws affecting    
automobile traffic on roads4 ,in  a     
perfect state it would doubtless be     
unnecessary to provide legal  machinery 
to compel the owners of powerful and    
rapid vehicles to  respect the rights of
 their fellow-citizens and to abstain   
from  running away without identifying  
themselves when they had caused an      
accident4 ,in proportion as the moral   
condition of the next century           
approximates to perfection1 such        
ordinances as the motor-car laws  will  
be unnecessary4 ,but for a long time new
 laws will always be  coming into       
necessity as a result of new inventions4
 ,for instance1  when1 as was suggested 
in an earlier chapter1 business is      
carried  on largely through the medium  
of recording telephones1 wirelessly     
actuated1 special laws will have to be  
devised to protect trade  against the   
various kinds of fraud which this method
 of transaction  would otherwise        

facilitate1 and some methods will have  
to be devised  for giving legal force to
 arrangements made by telephony1 akin to
 the  methods which now give legal force
 to written contracts4 ,similarly1      
various by-laws will have to be enacted 
to protect the public against  the      
accidents incidental to the various     
methods of rapid transit that  will have
 come into use4 ,probably it will no    
longer be necessary1  and it will have  
been perceived to be injurious1 to      
protect travellers  against their own   
rashness4    ,it is a well-known        
phenomenon that periods of material     
prosperity and  high wages are fruitful 
in crime4 ,probably increased           
consumption of  alcohol in prosperous   
times is the sole cause of this4 ,there 
can be  no direct connection between    
wealth and criminality2 the bulk of the 
criminal population is1 on the contrary1
 poor4 ,it would be idle to  speculate  
as to whether the next century will or  
will not continue  to legislate against 

intoxicants1 because it is morally      
certain that  intoxicants will have been
 legislated out of existence already1   
without  waiting for the period when it 
would no longer be necessary to abolish 
them forcibly4 ,for at present1 and in  
the more immediate future1  there is no 
ground whatever for anticipating that   
the legislative hand  will be withheld  
wherever law-making appears the simplest
 and most  obvious method of getting rid
 of any crying evil3 and there can be no
  doubt that the abuse of alcohol is an 
evil of precisely the sort that         
legislature will be active in           
suppressing4 ,some changes in the method
  of government will have to take place 
before ,parliament can legislate        
against alcohol3 but that it will so    
legislate before the middle of  this    
century is morally certain4 ,in what    
country the alcohol law is  first likely
 to be passed is immaterial4 ,every     
country which adopts it  will thereby   
assist in forcing the same measure upon 

other countries1  because1 with         
international travel constantly becoming
 cheaper and more  easy1 it is certain  
that numerous people who object to being
 deprived  of stimulants and intoxicants
 in one country will migrate to others  
where their appetite can have full play1
 and will intensify the drink  problem  
in those countries until these1 too1 are
 forced1 or will think  themselves      
forced1 to legislate in self-protection4
 ,thus such laws will  become universal4
 ,no doubt this condition will be       
reached gradually1  measures of         
restriction preceding measures of       
prohibition4 ,but the  end will be the  
same1 and it will be forced upon the    
world as much  by the increased evils   
inflicted by alcohol on nerves          
increasingly  susceptible to its        
influence1 as by any other              
consideration4 ,anyone who  has taken   
the trouble to observe the nervous and  
physical condition of  men and women in 
the average1 during even so short a     

period as the last  quarter of a        
century1 must have been impressed by the
 marked increase  of neurotic states1   
not merely in exceptional individuals1  
but in all  the people4 ,the neurotic   
temperament is much more adversely      
affected  by alcohol than any other2 and
 we are all growing more neurotic4 ,all 
the conditions of modern life tend that 
way3 and it is not alcohol  alone that  
will have to go1 but all sorts of       
habit-inducing drugs1  such as morphine1
 cocaine1 and the rest1 all of which1   
like alcohol  itself1 will soon be so   
restricted in regard to their sale that 
their abuse will be rendered practically
 impossible1 and their use  restricted  
to a purely medical employment4 ,it is  
even quite possible1  and ,i have       
already ventured to predict1 #cj that   
when the progress of  neurotism has     
worked itself out1 even such mild       
exhilarants as tea and  coffee will have
 to be made the subjects of legal       
restriction4 ,there  exist many         

individuals at the present moment upon  
whom coffee acts  as a stimulant nearly 
as powerful as alcohol1 moderately      
employed1  upon the rest of us--that is 
to say1 they experience the same mild   
exhilaration after a cup of strong      
coffee as a moderate man does  after a  
glass of burgundy or a whisky-and-soda4 
,these effects are no  more injurious1  
at present1 than those of a moderate use
 of wine or  spirits3 but they can      
become perilous1 and may develop in all 
sorts  of ways1 when the nervous        
organisation becomes more delicate4     
,thus1  the abolition of alcoholic      
beverages1 at present the fad of a      
minority  not always very respectable in
 the methods of its propaganda1 will    
presently be an indispensable feature of
 social progress4    ,unless all        
criminologists are wrong in their       
deductions1 something  like fifty per   
cent4 of all crime will be got rid of   
when alcohol no  longer exists to cause 
crime4 ,there are further ameliorative  

influences  certain to be at work which 
will tend to reduce the sorts of crime  
chiefly troublesome at present4         
,adopting the familiar division of      
crime into 7a7 offences against the     
person and 7b7 offences against         
property1 it is very easy to see that   
what may be called private crime  7as   
distinguished from crime against the    
body politic7 will diminish             
automatically4 ,when the extremes of    
wealth and poverty have become as  much 
less marked as ,i have endeavoured to   
show that they must become1  it is      
evident that the temptation to offences 
of greed will be greatly  diminished4 ,a
 large proportion of all these crimes   
arises out of  poverty alone1 or out of 
poverty coupled with stupidity4 ,a man  
who  has not enough intelligence to earn
 is very likely to steal in order  to   
provide for himself2 and one who is     
equipped by the knowledge of  a trade is
 consequently not so liable to be       
dishonest as one who is  less hopefully 

situated4 ,he is also likely to be more 
intelligent1  and consequently better   
qualified to perceive that the balance  
of  comfort is on the side of the honest
 worker and not on the side  of the     
burglar or thief4 ,anyone who has had   
occasion to observe  the proceedings of 
criminal courts must have noticed the   
frequency  with which the description   
labourer is adopted by the offenders    
charged4 ,labourer means an unskilled   
worker--a man who has learned  no trade1
 and brings nothing to his work but     
thews and sinews4 ,it  is much less     
common to find a trade claimed3 one     
rarely sees a thief  or burglar         
described on the charge sheet as ,john  
,doe1 carpenter1 or  ,richard ,roe1     
gas-fitter4 ,they do not even profess to
 have a trade4 ,of  course where a man's
 business is such as to lend itself to  
criminal  pursuits1 the case is         
different3 one finds banknote forgers   
described  as engravers and             
lithographers1 and makers of counterfeit

 money  as die sinkers4 ,but in the     
average of crime--at least crime of  the
 more stupid sorts--it is the tradeless 
man who is nearly always  charged4 ,it  
is impossible to resist the inference   
that poverty is  a determining cause in 
most crimes of greed4 ,in a hundred     
years'  time the spread of technical    
education will have thinned the ranks of
  the unskilled4 ,at the same time the  
inducements to honesty and steady       
industry will have been enormously      
increased through the universality  of  
the profit-sharing system2 and the      
position of the steady worker  will have
 become so greatly more attractive than 
that of the casual  thief1 that only the
 utmost stupidity can tempt anyone to   
the latter's  course of life4           
,self-respecting labour for a share in  
the profits  of labour1 instead of      
mechanical toil for wages that do not   
bear any  relation to profits nor to    
anything else except the fluctuations of
  the labour-market1 will so elevate the

 average of industrial character  that  
it will be rare for workmen to drift    
into crime4 ,at the same  time1 and     
similarly1 the restraint placed upon    
undue accumulation  of wealth will      
diminish temptation to crimes of greed  
at the other  extremity of social life4 
,it will no longer be worth anyone's    
while  to organise colossal schemes of  
dishonest company-promoting4 ,thus1     
crimes against property are certain to  
become relatively infrequent1  because  
the greatest temptations to them will   
have been removed4    ,apart from the   
largely preponderating number of cases  
in which  offences against the          
person--assaults and the like--arise now
 out of  intoxication1 the tendency to  
crimes of violence will also diminish   
as the temper of society grows milder4  
,an age so much advanced in             
sentimentality as to revolt against the 
cruelty of breeding horses for  traction
 and cattle for food is not likely to be
 fruitful in offences  of violence4     

,these offences1 where associated       
neither with drink nor  robbery1        
probably arise more often from jealousy 
between the sexes  than anything else4  
,it is unfortunately impossible to      
suggest that  sexual jealousy can be    
wholly eliminated from human nature4    
,but no  doubt its violent exhibition   
will have been educated out of us to  a 
large measure4 ,other personal offences1
 as rape1 criminal assault  and various 
criminal vices will doubtless diminish  
in frequency as  a consequence of       
general moral improvement4 ,in short1   
the work of  the policeman will be      
greatly eased in the course of this     
century1  and no doubt many functions at
 present relegated to the police1 such  
as the direction of street traffic1 the 
care of vagrant dogs1 and the  like1    
will be performed by officials of a     
different character4 ,even  these duties
 will be far less onerous than they now 
are1 when we have  become intelligent   
enough to see that the best way for     

every man to  secure his own freedom and
 comfort is to respect the freedom and  
the  rights of others4    ,it remains an
 open question whether at some time     
during this century  it may not be      
temporarily needful for the ,state to   
undertake the  restraint of offences    
against the intellect1 such as the      
publication  of false or grossly        
exaggerated news1 and of matter         
calculated to  encourage vice1 as       
betting4 ,no doubt the balance of       
advantage is in  favour of the entire   
freedom of the ,press2 but it cannot be 
denied  that this freedom is at present 
greatly abused4 ,it would be easy to    
name a dozen types of periodicals whose 
forcible suppression would be  an       
enormous gain to the public2 and in an  
age so increasingly prone to  look to   
the governing body for assistance in    
every conceivable matter  no one can    
deny the probability of some legislative
 steps being taken1  when the public    
first begins to concern itself seriously

 with public  morals4 ,but this         
possibility is much nearer at hand than 
the end of  this century2 at the latter 
period public opinion will probably be  
well able to take care of itself1 and   
any laws of the kind ,i have  suggested 
will1 like numerous other forms of      
legislation1 including  many now        
operative1 have fallen into desuetude   
because there will be no  temptation to 
the misdemeanours they are1 or may be1  
framed to repress4    ,the question of  
the form which the repression of crime  
will take a  hundred years hence can    
only be answered if we first endeavour  
to  see what the developments of        
penology1 or the science of punishment1 
are likely to be during the next hundred
 years4 ,naturally1 they will  have the 
same tendencies as the society which    
produces them4 ,we may  safely          
anticipate that the more savage         
punishments1 as death1 flogging  and    
painful labour will be eliminated1      
together with all punishments  that are 

not believed to be reformatory in their 
character4 ,and even  the relatively    
mild penalty of long imprisonment may to
 the gentler  mind of a new age appear  
unduly vindictive4    ,punishment will  
be regarded as a diminishingly necessary
 evil2 and  our object all sublime will 
not be to make it fit the particular    
crime for which it is awarded1 but to   
make it diminish crime as a  whole4     
,punition as a moral force will be      
judged according to its effect  in two  
different directions1 namely1 its force 
as a means of reforming  the convicted  
individual by preventing his relapse    
into crime1 and its  force as a means of
 deterring other persons from committing
 the same  crimes at all2 and of these  
two the second will be considered       
greatly  the more important in an age   
that will be logical as well as mild2   
because it is obviously a greater object
 to produce an effect upon  the minds of
 a possibly great number than to produce
 it upon the mind  of one culprit4      

,consequently1 although a benevolent    
solicitude for  the reformation of the  
detected offender will not be excluded  
from  the consideration of future       
penologists1 the deterring from crime of
  the tempted classes will be much more 
demanded4 ,as to this1 it cannot  be    
questioned that improvements in         
detection and in legal procedure        
7eliminating the chances of escape for  
the guilty without endangering  the     
freedom of the innocent7 are capable of 
accomplishing a great  deal more than   
could possibly be looked for from any   
alteration in  the nature of the        
punishment used4 ,experience shows that 
hitherto  a ferocious punishment not    
very certainly applied does not deter   
anything like so much as comparatively  
mild punishment with very  little chance
 of escape4 ,coining1 for instance1 is  
less common  now than when coiners were 
slowly pressed to death under weights1  
if detected2 and the diminution of this 
crime has not been due to  fear of the  

punishment now long abandoned2 neither  
was that penalty  removed from our      
system of criminal law because it had   
done its work  and stamped out          
counterfeiting4 ,on the contrary1       
improvements in the  minting of real    
money1 by rendering the detection of    
counterfeits  easy1 may be said to have 
almost eliminated the offence in        
question1  and this result is all the   
more remarkable when we remember that1  
owing to the appreciation of gold1 real 
silver shillings1 half-crowns  and other
 pieces just as good in assay as the    
royal mintage could be  coined by       
counterfeiters at a handsome profit4    
,our very proper anxiety to avoid every 
possible chance of committing  and      
punishing the innocent doubtless enables
 many guilty persons to  escape every   
year2 and probably quite half the       
prisoners acquitted  at every assize are
 really guilty in some degree4 ,the     
jurisprudence  of a hundred years hence 
will certainly have been so much        

improved  that innocent persons will    
rarely be accused at all1 and that      
guilty ones will not be able to escape  
on technical grounds3 and  with improved
 detective methods the chances of escape
 in any given  case will be greatly     
diminished4 ,what punishments are       
inflicted will  be of a reformatory     
character1 and no doubt provisional     
release1  freed from the many crying    
scandals of the ticket-of-leave system1 
will play a great part in scientific    
penology4 ,recidivism will1 of  course1 
be the subject of much sharper          
punishment4 ,in the meantime1  the study
 of mental science in its relation to   
crime will have made  great strides1 and
 if the views of our own age in regard  
to heredity  should be maintained1 a    
very great source of crime will probably
 be got  rid of altogether1 because men 
and women with just that mental twist   
which leads to crime will1 by one device
 or another1 be absolutely  prevented   
from propagating their race4 #ca    ,it 

is impossible to work out here the      
various methods of individual  reform   
applicable to convicts of various sorts1
 because the nature of  these methods   
must necessarily depend1 to a great     
extent1 upon the  conditions of a       
society of which only the most salient  
and extreme  peculiarities can be       
foreseen even by the most imaginative4  
,but all  evidence seems to suggest that
 actual crime will have become much     
diminished in amount1 while the         
necessity for dealing with what  may be 
called technical crimes--misdemeanours1 
and offences against  regulations made  
for the convenience of society rather   
than for the  defence of life and       
morals--will probably have been reduced 
to a  minimum1 partly by the            
intelligence of the population1 and     
partly  through the fact that the minor 
offences will have ceased to be  dealt  
with by law1 and will be sufficiently   
repressed by natural  causes4 ,not only1
 therefore1 will the amount of necessary

 restraint  become less1 through the    
diminution of crime and of temptation to
  crime1 but the employment of legal    
restraint will be less demanded1  the   
latter being recognised as1 when        
avoidable1 dangerous to public  morals4 
,and1 while criminal law will be less   
active1 civil litigation  will also     
probably be much less heavy4 ,the same  
causes which will  tend to make us more 
careful to avoid committing offences    
against  the common right of others1    
will make us more scrupulous to perform 
contracts4 ,and as a consequence of the 
improved morality which there  seems    
every reason to anticipate1 a hundred   
years hence1 it will no  doubt have     
become possible to execute a reform     
which many thinkers have  desiderated as
 an element of perfected polity4 ,it is 
hardly necessary  here to recapitulate  
the arguments in favour of the          
contention that  the cost of civil suits
 should be borne1 as the cost of        
criminal  prosecutions is always        

supposed to be borne1 by the ,state4    
,that  the man who brings successfully  
an action at law1 or successfully       
defends one1 should be able to do so    
only at an expense to himself1  is      
against public policy3 and there are    
even now numerous cases every  year in  
which even the unsuccessful party in a  
lawsuit is really doing  the public a   
service4 ,in a perfect state of public  
morality he would  always be doing so3  
and in a hundred years' time he will    
certainly  be more often worthy of      
public thanks than he is now--he will be
  less often seeking to impose or defend
 a wrong4 ,as matters stand1  it is     
notorious that the grant of costs       
following the judgment in a  civil suit 
is only a partial relief to the         
successful suitor4 ,he has  to pay his  
solicitor more than his solicitor can   
obtain leave from  the taxing master to 
collect from the other side2 while if   
7as not  infrequently happens7 the other
 side cannot pay1 the costs awarded  by 

the ,court have to be borne by the      
winner of the suit4 ,it is a  frequent  
reply of dishonest defendants1 when     
threatened with legal  proceedings1 that
 they will meet the plaintiff in the    
,bankruptcy  ,court4 ,on the other hand1
 a man will often submit to oppression  
rather  than be subjected to the expense
 of even a successful defence4 ,every   
litigant who maintains his right1       
whether as plaintiff or defendant1      
renders very much the same service to   
the public which we often hear          
applauded on the part of persons who    
come forward to prosecute  in criminal  
or misdemeanour cases4 ,he is assisting 
to make probity  profitable and evasion 
dangerous2 in other words1 he is        
subserving  public morality and helping 
to repress dishonesty4 ,it would be much
  to the public advantage that his costs
 should be borne by the public  purse1  
and borne generously1 every expense     
legitimately incurred  being allowed    
him4 ,logically1 he ought also to       

receive a sufficient1  and even a fairly
 liberal1 solatium for his trouble and  
loss of time3  and an honest loser ought
 to be able to receive a certificate    
from the  court entitling him to the    
same amenities1 the withholding of which
  would constitute a deterrent penalty  
against factious litigation4 ,but  it   
may be urged on practical grounds that  
to make the path of the  litigant too   
easy would lead to too much invocation  
of the law1 and  that the full          
recognition of the public usefulness of 
litigants must  be postponed to the     
millennium--which age of ideal          
perfection will  not occur 7it may be   
thought necessary to concede7 a hundred 
years  hence4 ,and it is not difficult  
to imagine means by which the public can
  be protected against the factious and 
unnecessary litigation to which1  in the
 absence of some safeguard1 we should   
certainly be exposed4 ,the  plaintiff   
might be required to obtain some sort of
 fiat1 such as is  required now before a

 suit of criminal libel can be          
prosecuted3 and  there would be no      
hardship in the litigant who failed to  
obtain the  fiat being left to bear his 
own expenses up to the time of failure1 
though1 in the event of his success1 he 
would of course have them  repaid4 ,the 
legal machinery for obtaining permission
 to sue need not  be made too           
complicated3 it must not be allowed to  
develop into a  sort of preliminary     
trial4 ,probably some sort of           
arrangement as the  above will be       
instituted a hundred years hence1 and   
all law-costs  borne by the ,state1     
except in the case of obvious dishonesty
 or bad  faith2 the trouble and loss of 
time necessarily incurred exercising  a 
restraining influence upon the          
litigious4    ,in regard to the general 
machinery of the law it would be tedious
 to  attempt to foresee all the reforms 
of which the growing complexity  of     
human affairs will certainly impose the 
necessity upon us4 ,the  clumsiness of a

 system by which important civil cases  
have to be tried  three times1 in ways  
differing in detail1 before a final     
decision is  reached1 needs no insisting
 upon3 and there is a manifest          
inconsistency  in the fact that an      
action about a matter worth #aja can be 
twice  appealed1 while a man tried for  
his life1 or something even more        
important than life1 has no appeal at   
all against an adverse verdict1  except 
to a secret tribunal of ,civil ,service 
clerks--for in the  commutation of      
sentences the ,crown stands for the     
,home ,secretary1  and the ,home        
,secretary is necessarily obliged to    
depend upon his  assistants1 who in     
their turn may very possibly have to    
derive their  information from officials
 whose credit would be damaged if some  
fact  favourable to the prisoner came   
out4 ,to admit this inconsistency is    
not by any means equivalent to admitting
 the necessity for courts  of criminal  
appeal3 and anyone who knows the methods

 of criminal  jurisprudence in the      
,united ,states must recognise that such
 courts are  capable of abuse highly    
dangerous to public morality1 so        
dependent upon  respect for law4 ,but   
with the great increase in scrupulosity 
and in  the mildness of public temper   
which the tendencies of human           
development  clearly vaticinate for the 
next century1 it seems impossible to    
doubt  that some method will be adopted 
by which criminal trials can be         
reviewed1 even though the class of cases
 in which the necessity for  review is  
most often mentioned now will no doubt  
have disappeared with  the abolition of 
capital punishment4 ,and it does not    
seem likely to  be beyond the ingenuity 
of the coming time to discover some     
means by  which civil cases can be      
settled in one trial1 instead of        
requiring  three1 without danger to the 
justice of any individual suit4    ,it  
is sometimes questioned whether trial by
 jury will continue a  feature of modern

 civilisation4 ,the remark of a legal   
cynic that  the man with a good case is 
always safe with a judge1 while the man 
with a bad case has always a chance with
 a jury1 is sufficiently  sound to make 
it a question whether juries are worth  
the trouble  given to the members of    
them1 and the vast amount of additional 
labour which their employment inflicts  
on the courts of which they  are a      
feature4 ,the conditions which make     
trial by jury the blest  palladium of   
our liberties have passed away in       
civilised countries1  and to a great    
extent in ,ireland4 ,it is no doubt     
characteristic of  the ,british people  
that we should so long as this have     
retained the  use of juries in civil    
suits1 though even here there are many  
cases  7especially in divorce and libel7
 where the average common sense of  a   
jury is really helpful to the judge1 and
 constitutes a check upon  his prejudice
 or impatience4 ,there was a time when  
the jury was a  genuine safeguard       

against oppression in private as well as
 ,crown  cases1 and it is like us1 as a 
nation1 to have retained them when      
their usefulness in this respect was    
happily obsolete4 ,but it seems  to the 
writer pretty certain that in civil     
trials juries will have  been dispensed 
with long before the end of this        
century1 and this  dispensation will    
probably be the stepping-stone to a     
system whereby  criminal causes will be 
tried by a bench of judges1 instead of  
by  a judge and jury4 ,the whole        
tendency of modern conditions 7in which 
must be included our growing1 and highly
 discreditable1 individual  impatience  
of the trouble of jury-service7 seems to
 point to this4 #cb    ,reforms of      
judicial procedure of course constitute 
only a relatively  small part of the    
legislative work which will have been   
accomplished by  the end of the century4
 ,apart from the work of gradually      
remodelling  the law with the idea      
7which nowhere seems to suggest itself  

to  present-day legislators7 of making  
it act beneficially upon public         
character1 there will no doubt be a vast
 amount of work for the  various        
parliaments of the world in codifying   
existing statute-  and common-law       
systems1 which in all communities have  
fallen  into complexity and confusion of
 a degree which makes them highly       
unsatisfactory instruments of social    
protection3 and there will also  be a   
great amount of constructive            
legislation1 particularly in regard  to 
the tenure of land1 to the              
simplification of conveyancing1 to a    
more intelligent machinery of contracts1
 to the equitable handling of  such     
accidental or conditional sources of    
wealth as we call unearned  increment   
and the discovery of unexpected         
minerals1 to the useful  limitation of  
inheritance1 and to other matters too   
numerous to be  safely named4 ,and in   
order that these great works may be     
accomplished1  it is quite certain that1

 not only in ,england1 but in all those 
,states where really free parliaments   
exist1 great reforms will have  been    
found necessary1 and will have become so
 much a part of the  machinery of       
legislation and administration a hundred
 years hence1  that our descendants will
 hardly be able to realise how          
,government  was ever carried on without
 them4 ,indeed1 it is by the difficulty 
of  administering anything at all by    
parliamentary methods--every year  more 
evidently breaking down--rather than by 
the desire to undertake  large schemes  
of legislation1 that statesmen will in a
 very short time  be forced to initiate 
the changes whose full development will 
have  become time-honoured by the end of
 this century4 ,the organisation of     
political opposition in parliaments has 
reached a point which makes it  evident 
that before long the minority in        
parliaments will have become  a         
nonentity4 ,the minority1 in fact1 has  
already1 here and in other  countries   

7of which the ,austro-,hungarian empire 
is1 at the moment1  the most noticeable 
example71 become so powerful for        
obstruction  of business that1 by a sort
 of paradox1 its power is on the eve of 
complete destruction4 ,at ,st ,stephen's
 the effect of obstruction working  in  
this manner is plainly visible4         
,whatever party is in power will        
always1 so long as the existing system  
continues1 be obliged to silence  the   
opposition by the force of parliamentary
 machine2 and whatever  party is in     
power will always be accused of tyranny 
and autocracy by  the other party4 ,in  
practice there is no method by which any
 important  government measure can be   
passed through the ,house of ,commons   
except  by force4 ,it is a mere farce to
 make a show of debating the details  in
 committee4 ,naturally the ,opposition1 
when it does not want the  measure      
passed at all1 will delay its passage to
 the last possible  moment1 and will    
make its enactment impossible unless a  

term is set  to the deliberations of    
committee of the whole house4 ,whether  
the  time granted by the ,government be 
long or short makes no difference3  it  
is impossible to pass any serious and   
complex bill except by the  closure4 ,in
 other words1 the ,government 7which    
practically means  the ,civil ,service  
officials and parliamentary draftsmen   
employed by  the particular department  
concerned with the bill--the ,home      
,office1  the ,local ,government ,board 
,office1 the ,exchequer1 or what not7   
must triumph4 ,even the suggestions of  
individual supporters of the            
administration in power must be ignored1
 unless there is a cave  which might    
turn out the ministry altogether4 ,in   
detail1 therefore1  we are governed1 not
 by ,parliament1 but by the permanent   
officials1  so far as really important  
,government measures are concerned3 and 
it is  quite evident that bills         
introduced by private members will very 
soon  not be considered at all4 ,the    

private member is rapidly being reduced 
to nothingness by the force of          
parliamentary development4 ,meantime1   
the waste of public time by the         
introduction and debating of bills      
which the ,opposition eventually        
succeeds in destroying1 is appalling1   
and of course it is aggravated by the   
idiotic rule which destroys  at the end 
of each session all the work which has  
been begun and  not completed4 ,the     
system1 not less imbecile1 in which     
opinion is  ascertained in ,parliament  
is another great time-waster4 ,it is    
only  necessary to ask for a single     
moment what our grandsons1 or even  the 
younger of our children1 will think of a
 ,parliament in which a  vote was taken 
by solemnly walking through lobbies1    
with elaborate  arrangements for        
counting and checking the members 7when 
it might  all be done by the simple use 
of an electric signal in front of each  
seat in the chamber7 in order to        
perceive the miserable inadequacy  of   

even the mechanical arrangements of all 
the parliaments of the  world4 ,and if  
even all the crass follies and medival  
stupidities of  modern parliamentary    
arrangements were reformed1 as          
nine-tenths of  them could be by any    
competent board composed of a few       
engineers1  electricians and architects1
 we should still be in possession of a  
legislative machine such as the         
intelligence of a hundred years hence   
would laugh to scorn if its restoration 
were suggested4    ,nor is this all4    
,the whole institution of parliaments1  
as a contrivance  for giving effect to  
the will of the peoples1 has long been  
utterly  inadequate1 and must be        
reformed from the bottom4 ,we elect     
members  to carry out schemes of        
legislation and forms of policy never   
fully1  and sometimes not even          
partially1 formulated1 upon which1 even 
if  they were set out in full detail1 we
 could not possibly have any  complete  
influence in giving our votes4 ,for     

instance1 let us suppose  that1 at a    
general election1 one party wishes to   
increase the ,navy1  to abolish         
publicans' compensation1 and to legalise
 marriage with  a deceased wife's       
sister3 while the other party not only  
objects  to all these three proposals   
but also wishes to put a protective     
tariff on foodstuffs and machinery1 to  
give ,home ,rule to ,ireland1  and to   
disestablish the ,church of ,england4 ,a
 ,home ,ruler who was  also a teetotaler
 could not vote for either party without
 outraging  one or other of his         
convictions4 ,a believer in the support 
of our  national supremacy who also     
considered that the ,church ought to  be
 disestablished would have to choose    
between voting against the  increase of 
the ,navy or against the                
,disestablishment3 and the ,deceased    
,wife's ,sister ,bill advocate must vote
 against all the proposals on  the other
 side 7all of which he may agree with7  
if he do not wish  to assist in         

perpetuating what he believes to be a   
hardship to his  fellow-countrymen1 and 
very possibly to some of his own        
friends1 or to  himself4 ,and any of    
these perplexed voters1 having somehow  
contrived  to strike a balance with his 
conscience1 and to give a vote1 will1   
perhaps1 in a year's1 or in six years'1 
time find that he has been  the         
instrument of placing in power an       
administration which is now  proceeding 
to pass measures that he abhors4 ,he has
 no redress4 ,nor1  abandoning the      
extreme case of such highly-mixed       
policies as ,i have  endeavoured to     
amuse the reader by imagining1 has the  
voter who changes  his mind1 or who     
finds that he has been bamboozled with  
false promises1  any means of helping to
 undo the harm he has helped to do4 ,it 
used to  be said that1 on an average1   
parliamentary government worked         
well--that  it carried out in a rough   
way the will of the people4 ,but the    
peoples  of a hundred years hence are   

going to be much more particular about  
matters of such high importance4 ,they  
are not going to be content  with a     
rough approximation in matters of the   
very highest moment when  they are able 
to secure with perfect accuracy most of 
their wishes  in matters of quite minor 
importance4 ,they will not be satisfied 
to  know exactly what time it is at any 
moment of the day 7as of course  they   
will know1 all instruments for          
time-measuring being controlled  by     
wireless synchronisation7 and not to    
know exactly what their rulers  are     
going to do about matters upon which the
 very fate of the country  may depend4  
,neither will they have remained so     
stupid as to think that  whatever one   
body of politicians considers right must
 be right and  that whatever another    
body thinks right must necessarily be   
wrong4 ,it  is quite certain that in a  
really intelligent age so clumsy a      
system  as that of party government will
 have been relegated to oblivion4       

,the political machinery to replace it  
will be of a nature determined by       
causes much too complex to be foreseen1 
except in the merest outline1  as yet2  
and probably it will1 like most         
political institutions1 be a            
development rather than an invention4   
,the system1 already talked of1  by     
which any matter of great national      
importance should be made a  referendum1
 the subject of a direct vote by the    
whole nation1 is no  doubt capable of   
ingeniously modified arrangement so as  
to provide  for its expeditious use1    
without undue interference with the     
course  of ordinary business4 ,but      
obviously this device is only capable of
  limited application1 and it could not 
be employed at all1 without  producing  
dangerous confusions and incongruities1 
except in a community  whose political  
education had made strides almost       
inconceivable in  the light of our      
present limited experience4 ,it is      
difficult to see  how the general       

legislative business of a considerable  
nation could  be carried on unless by   
committees of a parliamentary character2
  and limited as we are by the history  
of political institutions  arising out  
of states of public intelligence which  
will have become  contemptible in       
comparison with the intelligence of the 
next century1  there is a difficulty in 
conceiving how such committees or       
parliaments  could work out otherwise   
than on some sort of party system4 ,but 
the  analogy of progress in general may 
help us to a conjecture1 which is  here 
offered only for what it is worth4 ,all 
progress1 as we know it1  is a          
development from the homogeneous to the 
heterogeneous4 ,one form  of progress   
consists of the development of          
specialism4 ,at one time1  and not so   
very long ago1 every housewife made her 
own jams1 pickles1  perfumes1 essences  
and condiments1 which are now purchased 
ready  made4 ,a man of science1 in      
,davy's time1 often embraced a number of

  different branches as his province2   
whereas now even a single science  is   
seldom completely handled by any        
individual professor1 entomologists     
differentiating themselves from general 
biologists1 and coleopterists  from     
general entomologists4 ,does it not     
appear likely1 then1 that  the functions
 of the politician and of the legislator
 will presently  be differentiated1 with
 great advantage to nations8 ,in a      
legislature  of the present time        
professional law-makers are numerically 
few1 and  not very highly regarded4     
,while in a matter relatively           
unimportant1  like coach-building1      
civilisation has made specialism        
necessary2 in  a matter of the highest  
importance1 the making of a nation's    
laws1  we continue to trust the general 
practitioner1 and the suggestion  that  
specialists alone should be employed in 
it would probably awaken  a torrent of  
objection not unmingled with execration4
 ,but specialism  of all sorts will have

 extended its sway to such an extent a  
hundred  years hence that the likeliest 
solution of the difficulties at present 
envisaged is that the business of       
law-making will be relegated to a       
specially qualified and specially       
educated class1 and that parliaments1   
if they exist at all1 will have nothing 
to do with it1 but will concern         
themselves with what they are often     
rather contumeliously told now is  not  
their business 7though it ought to be72 
namely1 the management of  international
 policy4 ,the way in which this         
evolution will come about  is1 moreover1
 fairly easy to imagine4 ,at some time  
during the century  the manifold        
confusions1 inconsistencies and evident 
inconveniences  of the existing corpus  
of the law are pretty sure to require   
drastic  and laborious treatment1 which 
can only be administered by professional
  experts4 ,at the same time1 the       
public1 having awakened to the ludicrous
  fact that laws are passed in every    

session of every ,parliament in the     
world1 which1 when they come to be      
administered1 break down because  they  
have either been so stupidly and        
unimaginatively conceived1  or so       
clumsily expressed in the statutes which
 embody them1 that  practical working   
immediately reveals their fatal defects4
 ,a clever  young lawyer once said to   
the present writer that he knew of no   
intellectual pleasure so delightful as  
that of discovering how to  circumvent  
the provisions of an ,act of            
,parliament4 ,this diverting1  if       
immoral1 remark illustrates the faults  
of a social system in  which laws are   
made chiefly by persons having little   
experience in  the working of laws1 and 
elected to that duty by persons having  
no  such experience at all4 ,having in  
mind the fact that international  law is
 already relegated practically to       
specialists1 it requires no  great      
effort of imagination to foresee that   
the ,hercules that will  cleanse the    

,augean stable of the ,statute ,book    
will be a committee  of professors of   
law4 ,and once the public has become    
familiarised  with the idea1 what more  
natural than that a similar body should 
be formed to provide against such       
legislative blunders as we were  all    
recently laughing at1 when1 having      
provided for the restraint of  habitual 
drunkards by placing them on what was   
called the black list1  ,parliament     
presently learned that it had so framed 
the law that no  one could be           
black-listed except by his own consent8 
,the development  from this to a system 
by which laws would not merely be       
amended1  but devised ab ovo1 by        
professional legislators1 is easy to    
foresee2  and with properly-devised     
precautions to ensure that the laws     
created  shall express the will of a    
sovereign people sufficiently educated  
in political duty to possess a will     
worthy of consideration1 probably  no   
better solution of the legislative      

difficulty can be imagined4    ,the     
conduct of foreign affairs is a matter  
much less easy to reform4 ,if           
despotisms were not such desperately    
untrustworthy things1 a good  sound     
autocracy would probably be the best    
form of government for the  function of 
conducting the affairs of one nation    
with another4 ,the  extraordinary       
diplomatic success of ,russia is an     
evidence of  this4 ,but ,russia also    
illustrates the drawbacks of despotism4 
,in its  management of foreign affairs  
,russia has 7despite the habit which    
its departments occasionally display of 
acting in conflict with one  another7   
beaten all the civilised nations4       
,russia has a continuous  foreign       
policy4 ,there are no changes of        
ministers to nullify each  other's work 
and to encourage the diplomatists of    
other nations to  procrastinate and     
shilly-shally over negotiations in the  
hope that  a general election will bring
 in a new set of statesmen1 easier to   

deal with4 ,and ,russia can herself     
procrastinate1 prevaricate and play  all
 sorts of tricks1 neglect her promises1 
ignore her pledges1 and  prosecute her  
cryptic aims1 without the smallest fear 
of a question  in ,parliament to spoil  
her game by letting all the world into  
her  dark and devious secrets4 ,the more
 a nation becomes democratised1  the    
less competent it is to manage its      
foreign policy against less  democratic 
nations1 and a truly popular ,government
 is1 in the present  state of the world1
 about the worst conceivable instrument 
for that  purpose4 ,with an             
ever-increasing democratisation of all  
governments  such as we are sure to     
witness during this century1 foreign    
offices  of the present kind will become
 more and more incompetent until some   
sort of machinery is invented in their  
place4    ,nor will the disappearance of
 the ultimate resort to arms1 as a      
possibility always threatening in the   
background1 tend to improve  matters4   

,it will1 on the contrary1 make them    
worse4 ,there can be  no doubt that the 
awful fear of war1 which must haunt the 
pillow  of every statesman in our day   
with dreams of pitiable horror1  does   
exercise an influence in settling       
controversies which1 without  this      
terror1 would drag their slow length    
along from generation to  exasperated   
generation4 ,and if we try to imagine   
that the increased  conscientiousness of
 a better time will help nations to deal
 more  honourably with each other1 it is
 to be feared that even the vast        
progress of the quick-moving century on 
which we have entered will not  suffice 
to bind the princes to its pleasure and 
teach their senators  wisdom4 ,it is    
unfortunately in regard to honour       
between nation and  nation that         
conscience develops most slowly1 and    
many a man who would  scorn to trick a  
fellow-citizen1 or even defraud a       
railway company1  and who would quite   
possibly hesitate before smuggling a box

 of cigars  through the custom-house1   
will calmly advocate acts of            
international  dishonesty and oppression
 abhorrent to any conscientious mind4   
,there can be no doubt that the most    
deleterious influence of our times1     
which encourages nations to delay and   
deny to each other justice and  the     
fulfilment of solemn obligations1 is the
 habit of waiting upon  the chances of a
 minister's fall1 and a resulting change
 of policy4 ,so  long as almost any day 
may bring a new set of statesmen1       
predisposed  against anything which     
their predecessors may have approved1   
diplomacy  will be disfigured by ways   
that are dark and tricks that are vain3 
and the logical twentieth of the        
centuries may be trusted to perceive    
this4 ,consequently some method will    
have to be devised by which a           
continuous foreign policy may be made   
compatible with the performance  of a   
nation's will4 ,and here the wiser      
nature of the new age will  assist the  

constructive genius of the reformer4 ,no
 doubt the habit of  changing our minds 
on the basic principles of government   
about once  every six years will have   
been eradicated4 ,peoples will          
deliberate  more intelligently upon the 
important questions which they decide by
  their votes3 and it will no longer be 
thought--or rather1 we shall no  longer 
act as if we thought--that a            
modification of general opinion  in     
regard 7say7 to ,home ,rule for ,ireland
 must necessarily carry with  it a      
change of opinion as to whether it is   
desirable to extend our  influence in   
,afghanistan4 ,when this error is       
abandoned1 probably  foreign affairs    
will no longer be made part and parcel  
of the work  of the same set of men that
 is elected to manage domestic policy4  
,it  will then be possible for the      
people to express--as they rarely have  
any opportunity to express under the    
present system--their sovereign  will in
 regard to international matters4 ,and  

here1 as everywhere1  responsibility    
will certainly exercise an educative    
influence4 ,when men  intelligently     
realise that by their votes they are    
deciding the fate  of their country1    
they will deliberate long before        
yielding a decision  so momentous4      
,inasmuch as the foreign affairs of any 
nation are truly  understood only by a  
very limited class1 because very few    
people are  willing to give up enough of
 their leisure to the studies necessary 
for  such an understanding1 it seems    
reasonable to think that one feature  of
 the polity of the year #bjjj may be the
 limitation of the right to  vote on    
foreign affairs to men and women who    
have demonstrated in some  sufficient   
manner their competence to assist in    
directing the action  of their          
representatives in matters so intricate4
 ,the increased leisure  with which     
other reforms already foreseen will     
endow the people will of  course        
facilitate the acquirement of this      

competence1 and the right to  vote on   
foreign affairs will doubtless be a     
coveted social distinction1  subserving 
the perennial love of titles and the    
childlike pleasure of  having letters   
after one's name4 ,nor need we be too   
much daunted in  this conjecture by the 
whispered word oligarchy4 ,when         
oligarchy  really means government by   
those best qualified to govern--the     
nature of this bestness being           
intelligently determined--oligarchy     
will be recognised as the most          
satisfactory form of government3  and in
 order to exclude objectionable         
one-sidedness in the method of          
selecting voters for the high duty of   
guarding the nation's honour1  no doubt 
some method of selection by vote can be 
discovered1 free  from liability to     
reintroduce the baleful evil of party4  
,coming now to other functions of a     
,state1 the most obvious subject  for   
conjecture is that suggested by the     
tendency in recent times of  governments

 7and following their example of        
municipalities7 to engage  in trade4    
,the comment which gained currency over 
a decade ago1 that  we were all         
socialists then1 is still more justified
 now4 ,will ,states  continue their     
increasing practice of usurping the     
place of private  adventurers8 ,will    
railways1 canals1 telephonic and        
teleautographic  systems1 street        
conveyances1 and so forth1 be owned and 
controlled  by various public           
authorities1 after education1 some other
 functions1  including the feeding and  
clothing of poor children during school 
age1  and the care of the unemployed    
7which ,states before long will         
certainly  have embraced7 have by a more
 enlightened polity been returned to the
  proper hands8 ,the whole question of  
whether socialism is a probable         
solution of the difficulties which its  
advocates believe it capable of  solving
 is here involved4 ,applying our        
familiar principle of estimating  the   

tendencies of the future by the trend of
 events in the past1 it  seems certain  
that there will for a good many years   
immediately to  come be an increase in  
the functions assumed by the ,state3 but
 that  the whole plunge into socialism  
will not be undertaken4 ,for1 while     
measures undisguisedly socialistic in   
character are more and more  advocated  
and adopted1 the open principle of      
,state socialism seems  to find less    
support every year4 ,whenever distress  
becomes prevalent1  plenty of writers1  
for instance1 loudly denounce           
,governments for not  finding work for  
everyone who fails to find work for     
himself--so long  as he is a man6 7,no  
one appears to think it the             
,government's duty to  find work for    
women47 ,but when socialism is openly   
propounded1 the  same authors just as   
vehemently denounce the socialistic     
system to  which this principle of      
regarding the ,state as the duty-bound  
employer  of the workless clearly tends4

 ,what will most likely happen is that  
devices1 more and more socialistic1 for 
dealing with emergencies1 and           
inconveniences of various sorts1 will be
 adopted and maintained until  their own
 inconvenience and injustice have made  
themselves felt3 and  then a more       
reasonable age will get rid of          
them--better remedies having  meantime  
been discovered--at the same time       
perceiving their deleterious  effect    
upon private responsibility1 and        
wondering why it has tolerated  the old 
methods so long4 ,in other words1       
socialistic experiments will  have      
demonstrated their own evils before the 
habit of indulging in  them has gone so 
far as to allow ,states to drift the    
whole way into  socialism4 ,it is even  
possible that the example of some single
 nation1  drifting thus far1 and setting
 up a socialistic ,state1 may serve as  
a useful warning to the rest of the     
world1 and determine the gradual        
abandonment of the dangerous tendencies 

which will have increasingly  manifested
 themselves4 ,for it is certain that1   
unless in exceptional  and abnormal     
instances--of which the ,australian     
,commonwealth is very  likely to furnish
 an example--political systems will     
always continue  to develop by          
evolutionary1 and not by revolutionary1 
steps4 ,we shall  pass gradually1 and by
 a process of construction and          
elimination1  from one condition to     
another1 until the very greatly improved
 system  of government and              
administration whose period of existence
 ,i have  ventured to place at about the
 beginning of the next century1 has     
become general throughout the world4    
,we may1 for instance1 very easily      
imagine how a more intelligent          
electorate will abolish some abuses1 by 
considering the condition  of the       
post-office department of this and other
 countries4 ,it is  hardly thinkable    
that1 during any period of the world's  
history1 the  business of carrying      

letters can be thrown open to anyone who
 chooses  to undertake it4 ,if there    
were nothing to be dealt with except the
  domestic correspondence of each       
nation1 probably it would be a great    
deal better that it should be thus      
thrown open to competition3 it is       
hardly likely that the vast business of 
international correspondence  can ever  
be satisfactorily conducted1 except by  
administrations  acting in the name and 
behalf of every ,state4 ,but there is   
not the  least reason for thinking that 
the abuses which deface the postal      
department of this and every other      
nation will be perpetual4 ,the  ,british
 post-office contributes annually a     
profit of several  millions sterling to 
the ,exchequer4 ,every person who writes
 a letter1  therefore1 is taxed for     
doing it4 ,in proportion to the         
intelligence1  commercial enterprise1   
family affection1 or professional       
diligence  by which he is prompted to   
use correspondence1 every one of us is  

compelled to contribute something more  
to the up-keep of the ,state  than his  
neighbour who is too lazy1 too ignorant 
or too callous to  trouble himself with 
letter-writing4 ,no doubt it is         
impossible1  without a loss which would 
amount to subsidising1 in an equally    
objectionable manner1 the users of the  
post-office1 to conduct that  department
 except at a profit of some sort3 but it
 surely will  not be pretended that it  
could not be conducted without exacting 
such a surplus as the post-office does  
annually contribute to the  ,budget4    
,the vicious manner in which we treat   
the postal service as a  sort of trading
 department1 expected to yield the      
,chancellor of the  ,exchequer a        
convenient sum towards his expenditure1 
is illustrated by  the disgraceful      
underpayment of the minor officials1    
such as postmen1  small post-masters1   
telegraph messengers and the like4 ,the 
post-office  buys its labour in the     
cheapest market3 there is but too much  

reason  for the belief that it treats   
with oppressive harshness attempts on   
the part of its servants to better their
 wages by organisation3 and  when       
reproved in the ,house of ,commons for  
sweating his work-people1  a            
postmaster-general can always reply1    
amid applause1 that he dare  not        
embarrass his right-honourable friend   
the ,chancellor of the  ,exchequer4 ,the
 polity of the enlightened future will  
assuredly desist  from penalising       
intelligence1 enterprise1 and the other 
commendable  characteristics which tend 
to increase a man's correspondence2 and 
the postmaster-general who will be      
praised a hundred years hence  will be  
that one who has succeeded in managing  
his department with  the smallest       
possible surplus4 ,we have only to      
envisage the obvious  justice of this   
ambition to perceive the objections     
which attach to  the adoption of trading
 functions by the ,state4 ,though it is 
very  likely that railways will be      

nationalised in this1 as they have been 
nationalised or subsidised in many other
 countries1 it is quite  certain that if
 we do nationalise them we shall be     
compensated by  none of the advantages  
which make us tolerant1 and even        
unconscious1  of the abuses of the      
,british post-office--itself in most    
respects  one of the least imperfect of 
bureaucracies4 ,the faults generally    
found with railways are precisely the   
faults of bureaucracy1 and in           
proportion as railways become more and  
more united in their policy1  through   
amalgamation and arrangements for mutual
 assistance1 those  faults constantly   
increase4 ,the same will presently be   
found true of  all governmental         
usurpations of private enterprise3 and  
it cannot be  doubted that in this1 as  
in so many other respects1 the functions
 of  governments will be greatly reduced
 a hundred years hence4    ,one subject 
which cannot be neglected in any attempt
 to foresee the  conditions of the law  

in the next century is the delicate and 
difficult  one of marriage laws3 and on 
no subject are differences of opinion so
  numerous and so acute4 ,all that seems
 to be generally agreed is that  under  
the present system inconveniences and   
immoralities occur3 and  it is 7of      
course7 supposed to be a corollary that 
if the system were  changed these       
inconveniences and immoralities would   
disappear4 ,this is  the usual method of
 considering social difficulties4       
,hardly anyone will  consent to base    
plans for the future upon experience of 
the past4 ,it  is always presumed that  
new laws can reform abuses1 without     
changes  in the spirit of the age1 which
 gives rise to the abuses4 ,one class of
  thinkers1 despairing of moral         
improvement1 considers that1 immorality 
being irremediable1 the only thing to be
 done is to give it sanction2  as it    
must exist1 it must be made respectable 
and unscandalous4 ,another  set of      
reformers would penalise immorality by  

forbidding the guilty  party in a       
divorce suit to re-marry1 just as there 
are people who  would prevent the       
physically unfit from marrying at all4  
,both forget  that the prohibition of   
legal unions is much more likely to lead
 to an  increase of irregular           
connections than to produce any other   
effect4 ,no  doubt we could improve the 
physical standard of the legitimately   
born  by the prohibition last           
digressively mentioned3 but it would be 
at  the expense of an increase in       
illegitimate births accompanied by the  
additional disadvantage of bodily       
weakness4 ,similarly1 so far from  the  
prohibition of re-marriage restraining  
the immorally disposed1  it is much more
 likely that it would encourage them3   
the fact that a  co-respondent could not
 be called upon to marry the woman      
divorced  in consequence of her guilty  
association with him would hardly act   
generally as a deterrent2 while1 if he  
had been willing to face the  probable  

consequences of publicity1 expense and  
inconvenience attending  a liaison with 
a woman under coverture1 the            
co-respondent would not  think it       
necessary to abandon his confederate1 if
 he wished1 and she  were willing1 to   
continue their connection after all the 
penalties had  been suffered1 merely    
because the law prevented a regular     
union4 ,it  is agreed by all jurists    
that the only justification for the     
greater  severity with which matrimonial
 infidelity is visited on women  as     
compared with men is the greater social 
degradation with which  society visits  
women who have offended4 ,to penalise   
their offence  by prohibiting           
re-marriage would only perpetuate their 
degradation1  and does in fact so       
perpetuate and increase it in countries 
where  the condemned party in a divorce 
is forbidden the altar4    ,on the other
 hand1 to recognise a sort of           
promiscuity1 as some  writers have      
suggested that we shall be obliged to   

do1 would probably  be attended by worse
 effects than the bold and              
straightforward  acceptance of polygamy 
as a necessary remedy for the excess of 
feminine  population1 which a writer of 
letters to the shocked and astonished   
newspapers of this city recently        
proposed4 ,neither expedient is capable 
of being adopted3 nor does there seem   
much likelihood that public  morality   
can be improved by legislation1 though  
it is certain to be  much improved by   
the spontaneous amelioration of public  
sentiment4 ,no  doubt in one or two     
particulars the marriage laws will      
gradually  undergo amendment4 ,it will  
be realised that it is much more immoral
  to compel unwilling couples to live   
together matrimonially1 than  to set    
them free to remedy one of the most     
hideous of all possible  mistakes4 ,the 
difficulty of determining what shall be 
done where  one party wishes for        
divorce1 while the other does not1 is   
greater3  but on the whole it will      

probably be considered more conducive to
  morality to dissolve the marriage     
here1 after a precautionary and         
experimental period of provisional      
separation1 than to insist upon its     
perpetuation4 ,that age will only be    
ripe for such a reform as this1  which1 
by moral progress1 has rendered         
intolerable the position of  a libertine
 capable of entering into matrimony with
 the deliberate  intention of getting   
out of it again when it ceases to be    
attractive1  and in which the social    
estimate of a person who acted in the   
same  manner through instability of     
character would be not much better4 ,in 
any reform of the kind suggested1 it    
would no doubt be arranged  that        
pecuniary liabilities1 allocated to the 
support and education  of children1     
would follow the party insisting on     
divorce2 and this  also would act as a  
check upon dishonest contracts of       
marriage4    ,thus1 for any radical     
improvement in the system of matrimonial

  connections1 we must look to a        
corresponding improvement in the  spirit
 of the age1 and the first step in      
advance will have been  taken when      
marriage ceases to be the only legal    
contract which is  enforced             
notwithstanding the ignorance of a      
contracting party as to  the engagement 
entered into4 ,the frequency of divorce 
petitions will be  greatly diminished   
from the time we get rid of the idiotic 
and almost  incredibly wicked convention
 by which we take every possible        
precaution  we can think of to ensure   
that a girl1 when she marries1 shall    
have  no possible means of knowing to   
what she is committing herself4 ,no     
more ingenious contrivance for obtaining
 marital infelicity could be  imagined4 
,the next step will have been taken when
 it is recognised  as disgraceful for   
parents to put pressure upon the        
inclinations  of their children of      
either sex to induce them to marry1 and 
when  social execration renders such    

pressure impossible4 ,concurrently  with
 this1 or as a result of it1 a third    
step will be some abatement  of our     
present entire neglect of any demand for
 good character in a  bridegroom who    
would be outraged if he thought that the
 least aspersion  could be suggested    
concerning his bride4 ,in other words1  
the greatest  improvements in the status
 of the world with regard to matrimony  
will  be effected when we recognise the 
claim of woman to be made the equal  of 
man in knowledge1 in discretion and in  
social rights4 ,no legislative  reform  
as yet ever suggested could have        
anything like as much effect  in        
removing the evils under which we groan1
 in respect to matrimony1  as this      
natural and inevitable development4     
,naturally the improvement in the       
position of women in the new age  will  
not arrive at a bound1 nor will their   
rights in relation to  marriage be      
unaccompanied by other rights at present
 withheld1  and perhaps not always      

unreasonably withheld4 ,on the contrary1
 the  recognition of one set of rights  
will facilitate and accelerate the      
recognition of the other4 ,it is        
generally agreed that the tendency  of  
the sexes is to become less divergent1  
intellectually and morally1  for reasons
 connected with what ,spencer calls the 
less early arrest  of individual        
evolution1 and the result everywhere    
seen throughout  the organic world1 of a
 self-preserving power inversely        
proportionate  to the race-preserving   
power4 #cc    ,as it will have been     
realised1 long before the advent of the 
next  century1 that the surest way to   
improved capacity is to be found  in    
increased responsibility1 women will    
not1 a hundred years hence1  be allowed 
or compelled to shirk their political   
obligations4 ,we may  see with half an  
eye that every year women are becoming  
more capable1  and also more desirous of
 aiding the counsels of the public3 and 
in some of our ,colonies1 as well as in 

some ,states of the ,american  ,union1  
they are already voting1 and voting 7as 
it turns out7 with  the most wonderful  
intelligence and usefulness4 ,the       
influence of  the female vote in1 for   
example1 ,new ,zealand has been for some
 time  perceptible in the legislation of
 that highly-enlightened colony3  and ,i
 never heard anyone object to the       
results of this influence  except       
persons whose conduct1 or the conduct   
which they approved in  their           
associates1 was likely to be            
inconvenienced by them4 ,it is no  doubt
 true that women are a great deal more  
fond of demanding that  the law should  
do work which it would be better to     
leave to natural  developments of public
 character than could be wished3 but    
then so are  men1 and it is an          
unquestionable thing that the misdeeds  
which men more  readily condone than    
women are much more likely to be bad for
 public  morality than those which women
 condone more freely than men4 ,there is

  no particular reason for thinking at  
the present time 7though there  was     
ample reason for thinking a few decades 
ago7 that women will be  more prone to  
legislate unnecessarily1 and therefore  
mischievously1  than men3 and we are in 
any case bound to pass through a good   
many  years of parliament-worship before
 we awaken to the fact that the law     
cannot do everything1 and that any      
reform which is accomplished by  the    
spontaneous influence of public opinion 
is always a great deal  more complete1 a
 great deal more conducive to public    
self-respect1  and a great deal better  
adjusted to the special requirements of 
every  individual circumstance that it  
touches1 than one which is laboriously  
and mechanically embodied in statutes   
which cannot but be imperfect1  cannot  
possibly fail to act oppressively and   
unjustly in one place or  another1 and  
frequently prove to be unworkable from  
beginning to end4                       
,,chapter ,,xii    ,,general            

,,conclusions      ,on the other hand1  
after observing how the processes that  
have  brought things to their present   
stage are still going on1 not with  a   
decreasing rapidity indicating approach 
to cessation1 but with  an increasing   
rapidity that implies long continuance  
and immense  transformations2 there     
follows the conviction that the remote  
future  has in store1 forms of social   
life higher than any we have imagined3  
there comes a faith transcending that of
 the ,radical1 whose aim is  some       
re-organisation admitting of comparison 
to organisations which  exist4 ,and     
while this conception of societies has  
naturally evolved1  beginning with small
 and simple types which have their short
 existences  and disappear1 advancing to
 higher types that are larger1 more     
complex1  and longer-lived1 coming to   
still-higher types like our own1 great  
in size1 complexity1 and duration1 and  
promising types transcending  these in  
times after existing societies have died

 away--while this  conception of        
societies implies that in the slow      
course of things  changes almost        
immeasurable in amount are possible1 it 
also implies  that but small amounts of 
such changes are possible1 within short 
periods--,herbert ,spencer3 ,the ,study 
of ,sociology1 ,chapter ,,xvi4    ,it   
has repeatedly been necessary1 in the   
course of this survey1 to  stimulate the
 indulgence of the reader by a reminder1
 based upon the  speed of our progress  
in the past and its steady acceleration 
in recent  decades1 that there is much  
more danger of underestimating than of  
exaggerating the advances likely to have
 been achieved a hundred years  hence4  
,in order to guard against misconception
 of the manner in which  these advances 
will be brought about1 it is now        
advisable to mention  specifically what 
has been once or twice hinted           
parenthetically1  namely1 the fact that 
the progress of the ,future is certain  
to be  produced in a way perfectly      

capable of being deduced from the manner
  of our progress in the past4 ,one of  
the most fruitful causes of error  in   
existing prognostications has been the  
tacit assumption that1  at some vague   
moment in the spacious middle-distance  
of the coming  time1 sudden and         
cataclysmal movements of society1 and   
also unexpected  and revolutionary      
discoveries in science1 will occur3 and 
it is as a  precaution against one      
aspect of this mistake that a weighty   
quotation  from the writings of one of  
the sanest and most perspicuous thinkers
  who have ever written upon that       
science of society which he may almost  
be said to have created has been        
recalled to the memory of the reader  at
 the head of this chapter4    ,the      
forecast now almost concluded1 imperfect
 and visionary as it  must necessarily  
be1 was commenced with some reflections 
on the  rate of future progress made    
probable by the movements of the recent 
past4 ,but nothing whatever can be      

deduced from what history1 remote  or   
recent1 shows us1 to suggest that any   
stable institution can be  created      
otherwise than by steady development3 it
 is only the speed  of development which
 is likely to alter1 and even this will 
only  alter by a progression gaining    
impetus from the influence of its  own  
components4 ,whether we consider        
material improvements effected  by      
science and invention and the           
interaction of these2 or social         
improvements effected by readjustment of
 the conditions of life forced  upon us 
through the influence of intellectual   
and moral changes in  the individual    
units of society making themselves felt 
as aggregated  forces2 the manner of    
attainment is nearly identical4 ,it is  
commonly  objected to this view1 that   
whereas science and invention commonly  
progress in a movement characterised 7so
 to speak7 by a succession  of jerks1   
social conditions change imperceptibly4 
,but thus to object  is to overlook the 

fact that1 while no doubt society       
develops from  time to time certain     
needs whose growth is so steady as to   
preclude  the possibility of pointing to
 a final moment when the satisfaction   
of them has become at length inevitable1
 yet1 when this satisfaction  is gained 
by legislative enactment1 there is      
always a moment when  the public1 ripe  
for a given reform1 takes definite      
possession of  it4 ,for example 7to name
 a comparatively recent case71 no doubt 
the desire for some method by which the 
public could distinguish  between       
foreign and home-made articles of       
merchandise had for some  time been     
generally felt before the passing of the
 ,merchandise ,marks  ,act fixed a      
moment at which all dubiety on the      
subject would vanish1  by endeavouring  
to require that any imported object     
bearing marks  calculated to give the   
impression that it had been manufactured
 in  ,england should also bear a        
definite and correct statement as to    

its place of origin4 ,whether we        
consider this enactment to have  been   
desirable or not1 it is impossible to   
deny that there was a  specific moment  
when it took effect4 ,and similarly1 the
 bill for  the repression of secret     
commissions in business has come so near
  to being passed through ,parliament   
that many people imagine it to  be      
already law1 though it is not1 at the   
time of writing1 even 7in a  technical  
sense7 before the legislature4 ,without 
question1 therefore1  public opinion is 
ripe for this reform1 and has with great
 gradualness  become so3 but the reform 
itself1 when it takes place 7as it may  
quite  conceivably have taken place by  
the time this book is printed71 will    
occur suddenly4 ,there will be a day    
when the manager of a business  house   
could1 with immunity from any overt     
punishment except the loss  of his      
employment1 receive a secret bribe from 
another house with  which he was doing  
business on behalf of his master2 and a 

succeeding  day on which1 for the same  
offence against commercial integrity1   
he could be charged before a magistrate 
and ultimately punished by  the law4    
,thus the difference between scientific 
progress and social  progress is not so 
great as has been sometimes imagined4   
,and on the  other hand1 although to the
 casual observer scientific discoveries 
and  new inventions often appear to have
 been attained at a single step1  to a  
person interested in the particular     
branch of science1 or the  particular   
path of invention where a new           
achievement occurs1 it is  generally    
quite evident that the latter has been  
led up to by steady  progress extending 
over a long period4 ,the existence of   
unidentified  constituents in           
atmospheric air1 for instance1 must have
 been long  suspected before the        
isolation of argon gave1 to the public  
eye1 the  impression of a sudden        
discovery3 and astronomical disturbances
 have  generally puzzled a great army of

 observers for a long time before the   
public is indulged by the announcement  
of a new star in the heavens4    ,to the
 reader who has been good enough to     
grant any validity at all  to the       
arguments by which ,i have sought to    
show that1 as time goes  on1 there will 
be a decreasing tendency to attempt     
desired reforms by  legislative process1
 and an increasing tendency to make the 
public the  guardian of its own         
security1 it will be evident that any   
differences  which exist between the    
nature of scientific progress and the   
nature of  social progress are likely to
 be accentuated rather than diminished  
in  the course of this century4 ,a      
change brought about by the spontaneous 
activity of the people naturally occurs 
without the definite line of            
demarcation created by an ,act of       
,parliament4    ,but there is one way in
 which the analogy between scientific   
and  social progress will be noteworthy4
 ,it is a commonplace of industrial     

history that an improvement in one      
machine1 or the introduction of some    
novel method of applying power1 always  
produces1 and may very often            
necessitate1 modifications in a number  
of procedures not previously  seen to be
 connected with it3 and great results   
from little causes  flow4 ,no one       
foresaw1 when ,mr ,edison discovered the
 differences in  the electrical         
conductivity of carbon induced by slight
 variations of  pressure--a discovery at
 first utilised only in the             
micro-tasimeter1  the appliance used for
 measuring small changes in the size of 
objects submitted to it--that the same  
discovery would presently  render       
commercially practicable the electrical 
transmission of speech  and numerous    
other conveniences1 themselves the      
progenitors of fresh  inventions now in 
constant use4 ,similarly1 political and 
social changes  quite easy to foresee   
will undoubtedly have effects which in  
their  entirety no one can possibly     

foresee4 ,the rate of advancement cannot
  be calculated like a geometrical      
progression3 all that we can hope  to do
 is to realise more or less vaguely the 
acceleration which the  action and      
interaction of anticipated 7and often   
antagonistic7 forces  will produce2 the 
general manner of the world's progress  
representing  the resultant of their    
activities4 ,what we must constantly    
keep in  mind is the fact that changes  
in the institutions of society can only 
be stable when they are the result of   
corresponding changes in the  temper of 
the age which yields them4 ,as this     
temper is a thing of  gradual           
development1 we must believe that many  
temporary expedients  will have to be   
tolerated by advanced thinkers since 7as
 ,spencer  remarks7 society can only be 
held together when the institutions     
existing1 and the conceptions generally 
current1 are in tolerable  harmony4 ,we 
can foresee many changes which will be  
in beneficent  existence a hundred years

 hence2 but it would be irrational to   
show  impatience because these changes  
cannot be immediately proposed2 since1  
being not yet in harmony with the       
current conceptions of the world1  their
 immediate adoption would be mischievous
 instead of beneficial1  and their      
results anarchic instead of stable4 ,for
 a great many  years we must go on      
passing laws for the regulation of      
social life1  which we can quite easily 
perceive that the altered social life of
 a  future age will not need1 because   
they would be injurious to it4 ,the     
zealous reformer who wishes1 as we must 
all wish1 to help the world  in its     
wearied way to perfection must aim      
rather to assist the mind  of people to 
demand greater reforms than it could as 
yet assimilate1  than to procure the    
arrival of reforms for which society is 
not yet  ripe1 and must be content with 
the effort              444 to ease the 
burden of the world      ,laboriously   
tracing what must be      ,and what may 

yet be better4      ,to say this is not 
to deprecate the greatest possible      
energy in  all endeavour that makes for 
progress4 ,the doctrine1 founded upon  a
 perception of the impossibility of     
regenerating society except by          
utilising the natural and evolutionary  
movement of society itself1 that        
nothing ought to be done except to wait 
upon this movement1 betrays  an evident 
confusion of thought1 akin to the       
fallacy of the schoolmen1  commonly     
called realism1 partly adopted by       
,comte4 ,society is not in  itself an   
entity separable from the units of      
society2 a progress of  society is only 
possible as the result of human volition
 progressively  exercised4 ,what we have
 to look for is a steady enlightenment  
of public  ideals1 issuing in the       
triumph of wisdom over folly1 of virtue 
over  laxity1 of progress over reaction 
and inertia4 ,always there will be      
differences of opinion1 exercising a    
salutary check upon hasty public        

action1 and giving time for the         
establishment of harmony between the    
spirit of the age and the new           
institutions which mark its progress4   
,naturally there will have been many    
changes in the material of daily  life  
which1 either because they did not fit  
in with any one of the  divisions into  
which a forecast of the future naturally
 fell1 or  because the consideration of 
them would have obscured the exposition 
of matters more immediately connected   
with each other1 it has not been        
possible to mention4 ,for example1 we   
have had occasion to debate the  methods
 by which men and women will transact   
the business of trade and  commerce with
 the aid of certain foreseen            
conveniences2 and we have  glanced at   
the probable future aspect of dwellings1
 conveyances and  similar conveniences2 
but nothing has been said as to the     
clothes in  which our descendants are   
likely to attire themselves or the      
enjoyment  of these advantages4 ,the    

latter and a few other minor subjects   
may  perhaps be considered now1 without 
very much mutual connection4    ,the    
clothing of men and women happens to    
illustrate rather  appropriately the    
very same tendency of civilised         
institutions to  develop by gradual1    
rather than violent1 changes which has  
just been  referred to4 ,for1 while a   
good deal is heard about the vagaries   
of fashion1 technical writers on the    
subject always seem to be able  to      
predict some time in advance the        
movements of modish costume2 and  they  
sometimes even condescend to explain the
 processes of thought  and observation  
by which their apparently inspired      
predictions are  arrived at4 ,moreover1 
admitting1 and allowing for1 the        
extremest  variations in detail1 costume
 in civilised countries can hardly be   
said to have materially and             
intrinsically altered--cannot1 that is  
to  say1 be said to have altered its    
fundamental characteristics--during  a  

century1 in the case of men1 nor during 
a great many centuries  in the case of  
women4 ,since the age of knee-breeches  
succeeded the  age of doublet and hose1 
men have always protected their legs    
with  bifurcated integuments--some sort 
of double tube secured to a  copious bag
 enclosing the middle of the body--and  
the upper part of  the trunk with a coat
 and waistcoat2 while women have always 
worn  bodices and petticoats of one     
shape or another4 ,neither has the      
loudest outcry against the irrationality
 of costume as a whole1 nor  even the   
ridicule showered upon single elements  
of it1 ever had the  least effect in    
producing revolutionary modification4   
,punch laughed  in vain at crinolines2  
,lord ,ronald ,gower protests in vain   
against  the silk chimney-pot hat4 ,will
 a more scientific and a more logical   
age replace absurd or otherwise         
objectionable garments by others more   
reasonably designed1 to such an extent  
as to produce an entire change  in the  

sartorial aspect of civilised peoples8  
,it is impossible to doubt that in some 
respects it will4 ,already  sensible    
women decline to injure themselves and  
risk the injury of  their possible      
offspring at the command of fashion4    
,tight-lacing  and the wearing of such  
corsets as unnaturally compress the     
internal  organs of the body are        
evidently near the end of their long    
reign4 ,in  a comparatively short time  
it is hardly possible to doubt that  at 
least these1 the most evidently         
injurious articles of clothing  still   
surviving1 will have joined the         
farthingale and the ruff in  the        
lumber-room of the obsolete1 and when   
what is really the more  reasonable     
moiety of mankind is thus within easy   
reach of sacrificing  to hygiene what   
was dedicated to a wholly mistaken      
conception of  sthetics1 can we question
 that reforms in male dress founded upon
  convenience and reason will follow1   
even to the abandonment of the  silk    

hat8 ,if one were asked to suggest the  
various steps by which  the ultimate    
costume of the century1 whether male or 
female1 will be  arrived at1 few would  
not boggle at the task4 ,but the general
 nature of  the more-or-less-perfected  
dress of a hundred years hence may      
perhaps  be not unsuccessfully imagined1
 having in mind the considerations      
likely to determine it4    ,we may be   
quite certain that two characteristics  
will be demanded  of all costume--that  
it shall give to all movements of the   
body the  greatest possible freedom     
consistent with warmth1 and that it     
shall be  as easy as possible to put on 
and take off4 ,the highly intellectual  
life of the next century will certainly 
be impatient of anything  which detains 
it with occupations so uninteresting as 
the putting  on and taking off of       
clothes from pursuits more attractive4  
,hence  there will doubtless be a great 
deal of simplification of details1 the  
greatest practical diminution in the    

number of single objects worn4 ,the     
essentials of a satisfactory outfit will
 be1 first1 an inner garment  next the  
skin1 worn merely for cleanliness2 next 
a middle garment  for warmth1 and       
finally an outer suit for protection4   
,the innermost  garment will no doubt be
 made of some fabric not much unlike the
 soft  silky papers now made in ,japan1 
so that it can be destroyed as soon  as 
it is taken off4 ,it is not in the least
 likely that so insanitary  and         
degrading an occupation as that of the  
washerwoman can survive  in a           
civilisation really advanced4 ,the      
middle garment1 completely  cleansable  
by vacuum action and oxygenation1 will  
of course have to be  made of some      
vegetable fibre like cotton or flax4 ,it
 will most likely  be some developed    
form of combination1 easy to put on and 
take off1  fastening by means of a      
single knot or button1 and will be just 
tight  enough to give freedom to the    
movements4 ,its warmth will be dependent

  upon contained air1 and it1 like      
everything else we wear1 will be  highly
 porous2 for the importance of properly 
ventilating the skin1  perfectly well   
understood even now1 will by that time  
be also acted  upon4 ,thus far male     
costume and female costume will be      
practically  identical4 ,there is no    
reason to expect1 however1 that this    
identity  will be carried so far as the 
externals of dress1 because realising   
7as we shall of course realise7 the     
tendency of the sexes to become  less   
divergent in their natural and moral    
characteristics1 we shall  instinctively
 seek to maintain all the salutary and  
romantic contrast  that we can4 ,but it 
is not to be believed that woman1       
already long  since emancipated from the
 corset1 will have continued a slave  to
 the skirt1 the petticoat and other     
restraining garments4 ,with             
underclothes practically identical with 
the sensible garments of men1  our      
female descendants will no doubt wear a 

costume much like what  ,miss ,rehan    
wore as ,rosalind--a tunic and          
knee-skirt 7probably in one7  with      
gaiters made of some elastic material4  
,deprived as we shall be of animal      
products1 the leather boot will         
naturally be unavailable1 and a totally 
different kind of foot  covering will be
 used4 ,but it is not the absence of    
leather which  will determine this      
change4 ,perfectly satisfactory boots of
 the  present form are worn by some     
extreme vegetarians already1 carrying   
consistency to its limit4 ,with the     
disappearance of the horse from the     
streets1 however--a disappearance which 
will doubtless be at least  seventy     
years old by this time next century 7for
 the motor car is  fast pushing out the 
horse already7--the chief need for an   
entirely  impervious foot-covering will 
have been obviated4 ,towns will be      
sanitary underfoot--they are disgusting 
now--and free from mud2 while  the      
drying appliances mentioned in an       

earlier chapter will clear away  rain as
 fast as it falls4 ,consequently it will
 no longer be necessary  to wear        
uncomfortable1 unhealthy and deforming  
boots2 the human foot  will cease to be 
the source of discomfort it now more or 
less acutely  is to nine people out of  
every ten1 and we shall be much better  
walkers  and athletes4 ,for health will 
be the consideration dominating all our 
actions1 health being a subject of      
careful tuition in every school3  and as
 men and women will rarely need to use  
muscular strength in  their work1 they  
will gratify the natural yearning of    
healthy animals  for exertion1 in       
athletic sports1 by no means confined to
 the male sex4    ,whether fashion as an
 institution will continue to exist is  
doubtful1  but probably it will not     
exhibit the extravagances1 nor the      
capricious  development which now       
characterise it1 and a general          
uniformity  with infinitesimal          
differences1 which has been defined as  

one of  ,nature's uniformities1 will be 
perceptible in the natural development  
of the race4    ,of course one object   
sought consciously or unconsciously to  
be attained  by the use of fashions is  
class distinction2 and similarly        
jewellery is  probably worn much more   
because it is a sign of wealth than     
because  of any intrinsic beauty which  
it is supposed to possess4 ,at one time 
a man's occupation 7and consequently his
 rank in society7 could be  ascertained 
by his dress2 and sumptuary laws        
occasionally made such  distinctions    
obligatory4 ,it is no doubt of some law 
of his own time  that ,shakespeare was  
thinking #cd when he made the tribune in
 ,julius  ,csar reprove the workmen for 
appearing on a business-day without  the
 leather aprons which marked their      
trade3--                  ,what1 know   
you not      ,being mechanical you ought
 not walk1      ,upon a labouring day1  
without the sign      ,of your          
profession8      ,will class distinction

 survive the democratising influence of 
a century8    ,the dress of our own time
 tends to obliterate the evidence of    
these  distinctions2 but a development  
from heterogeneity to homogeneity is  a 
reversal of the usual law of progress1  
and it can hardly be called  a sign of  
social advancement that artisans of our 
day generally wear1  when at work1 the  
cast-off clothes of the employing       
classes1 bought  second-hand1 and for   
,sunday best often ape the fashions of  
the  rich4 ,in a hundred years' time    
assuredly no worker will be ambitious   
to give himself the aspect of an idler1 
and one may perpend the dry  answer of  
an ,american to the remark that in the  
,united ,states there  is no            
leisure-class4 ,oh1 yes1 there is1 said 
the moralist1 only  we don't call them  
that2 we call them tramps4 ,everyone    
will take  pride in his work1 when work 
is no longer treated with the           
disgraceful  contempt which we are only 
by degrees becoming ashamed of4         

,consequently  the clothes worn at work 
will no doubt be1 in every trade1       
specially  designed to facilitate the   
exertions of the worker3 and in the     
copious  hours of leisure there will be 
variety1 increased by the wearing of    
special garments for special amusements4
 ,it is difficult to believe  that      
anyone1 whatever his work1 will dispense
 with the comfort of  a complete change 
of dress when play-time comes3 and the  
ingenious  simplification of fastenings1
 and the reduced number of garments     
worn1  will facilitate the enjoyment of 
this luxury4 ,everyone will dress  for  
dinner--but not 7one fancies7 in a      
swallow-tail coat and stiff  shirt4 ,it 
is quite certain that all our clothes   
will be soft1 supple1  porous1 light and
 warm a hundred years hence1 and the    
clear-starcher  will no longer have the 
opportunity to destroy them4    ,some   
attempt has already been made to suggest
 the general domestic  and architectural
 conveniences of the next century1 but  

the subject  of furniture has not been  
referred to in detail4 ,allowing for the
 fact  that animal fabrics1 as wool1    
leather1 etc41 will be absent1 there is 
no particular reason why chairs1 carpets
 and curtains should be very  different 
from what they are now4 ,no doubt light 
metallic alloys will  often be used in  
the framework of chairs and tables      
instead of wood1  because the tendency  
of civilisation is to make things       
lighter and  less cumbersome whenever   
this is possible4 ,at one time it might 
have  been thought that upholstery1     
carpets and curtains would have to be   
dispensed with4 ,but to a thoughtful    
observer there must always have  been a 
difficulty here4 ,a wooden chair1 and   
even a rattan one1 however  cunningly   
shaped1 is so extremely discomfortable  
to sit in without  cushions1 that it was
 easier to imagine that invention would 
correct  the unhealthiness of cushions  
and stuffing1 than that an advanced  age
 would consent to dispense with these   

luxuries4 ,the manner in  which the     
former solution of the difficulty would 
be attained was  actually foreseen by   
the present writer before the           
introduction of  vacuum cleaning was    
accomplished1 and several passages in an
 earlier  chapter had to be rewritten   
when what had been somewhat fancifully  
described as a convenience of the future
 suddenly became an existing  factor of 
the present3 and in one or two places   
innovations have  similarly called for  
changes in the text--a circumstance     
which1 it is  to be hoped1 will give    
pause to critics disposed to condemn    
certain  suggestions in this book as    
chimerical4 #ce ,obviously1 now that we 
can  thoroughly cleanse and free from   
every particle of dust by a simple      
mechanical process any fabric or mass of
 fabrics1 there is no longer  any reason
 to expect that our descendants will1 on
 hygienic grounds1  find it necessary to
 dispense with comforts so essential to 
restful  leisure as easy-chairs1 soft   

carpets and wall hangings4    ,on the   
other hand1 it is quite certain that    
numerous inventions will  enhance and   
beautify the luxury of an age where     
rational luxury  will reign universally4
 ,one source of frequent discomfort     
to-day  is the necessity of living      
always in rooms of one size4 ,whether   
we sit alone1 or entertain a number of  
friends1 the same apartment  has to     
serve our needs3 consequently we are    
crowded on one day and  chilly on the   
next4 ,with combustion abolished as a   
heating device1  there will be no       
objection against light sliding walls--a
 convenience  long since adopted by our 
allies the ,japanese--which would be    
rather  dangerous nowadays and not      
particularly desirable1 at all events in
  ,england1 where we have no means of   
warming most rooms except a fire  on one
 side1 and no means of cooling them at  
all except by letting  in draughts and  
noise through the window4 ,no doubt when
 matches and  fireplaces1 about equally 

causative of conflagration1 have        
vanished1  and when we have invented    
methods of warming the air in houses    
without  the horrible drying of it      
caused by the ,american pipe-stove      
system1  houses will be much more       
lightly built3 and it is certainly not  
going  to be impossible to use thin1    
light walls without being able to hear  
in each room every sound that occurs in 
the next4 ,concurrently1 we  shall be   
able to change the size of rooms--a     
convenience greater than  might be      
supposed by those who have not thought  
about the matter4 ,in  summer we shall  
just as easily cool our houses as we    
shall heat them  in winter4 ,very few   
servants will be required 7another great
 comfort72  and lighting arrangements   
will naturally be free from their       
present  inadequacy4    ,except that no 
one has yet troubled to think about it1 
there is  surely no reason why bathing  
should be such a tedious operation as it
  is4 ,probably the speediest dresser of

 our own day does not consume less  than
 a quarter of an hour over his morning  
tub and the operation of  drying        
himself4 ,a hundred years hence1 people 
will be so avid of every  moment of     
life1 life will be so full of busy      
delight1 that time-saving  inventions   
will be at a huge premium4 ,it is not   
because we shall be  hurried in         
nerve-shattering anxiety1 as it is often
 complained that  we now are1 but       
because we shall value at its true worth
 the refining  and restful influence of 
leisure1 that we shall be impatient of  
the  minor tasks of every day4 ,the bath
 of the next century will lave  the body
 speedily with oxygenated water         
delivered with a force that  will render
 rubbing unnecessary1 and beside it will
 stand the drying  cupboard1 lined with 
some quickly-moving arrangement of soft 
brushes1  and fed with highly desiccated
 air1 from which1 almost in a moment1   
the bather will emerge1 dried1 and with 
a skin gently stimulated1  and perhaps  

electrified1 to clothe himself quickly  
and pass down the  lift to his          
breakfast1 which he will eat to the     
accompaniment of a  summary of the      
morning's news read out for the benefit 
of the family1  or whispered into his   
ears by a talking-machine4    ,does this
 manner of beginning the day sound like 
a nightmare8 ,that  is only because the 
purpose of it has been overlooked4 ,not 
because  they will be short of time will
 our descendants thus arrange their     
lives1 but because they wish to reserve 
as much time as possible  for culture   
7physical as well as intellectual7 and  
for thought2  which the better          
distribution of wealth and labour will  
facilitate2  while labour itself1       
everywhere performed intelligently and  
with  interest1 will be no longer       
irksome4 ,the working man will ply his  
trade with zest--working for himself and
 family--instead of seeking  every      
opportunity to shirk and evade it4 ,and1
 his task accomplished1  he will hasten 

to enjoyments as elevating as labour    
itself4    ,will man then1 the critic   
may ask incredulously1 have really been 
perfected in a century8 ,decidedly not4 
,but unless we doubt the evidence  which
 shows that improved institutions not   
only arise out of improved  popular     
character1 but also help to promote it1 
we cannot resist the  inference that the
 removal of many causes of degradation  
must bring  us nearer to perfection1 to 
which the moral evolution of the race   
is slowly proceeding4 ,there is nothing 
,utopian in the belief that  honesty1   
truthfulness1 respect for the rights of 
others1 will be  fostered by the        
increased intelligence of the new age2  
and from the  moment when this          
intelligence1 disseminated throughout   
all society1  begins to make the moral  
improvement of the race a prime object  
in  every social reform1 in every piece 
of legislation 7emancipating  as well as
 restrictive7 we have a right to expect 
the progress of  morality to receive a  

marked impetus4 ,nature1 careless of the
 single  life1 will be assisted in the  
perfecting of the moral type1 and the   
dishonest man1 the liar1 the sensualist1
 and the man too stupid to  be          
unselfish1 will become with every decade
 less fit for survival1  because the    
same unwisdom which is at the bottom of 
his faults will  handicap him in the    
battle of life1 will hinder him in the  
competition  for the right to perpetuate
 his characteristics in children born of
  his loins4 ,it is only those who      
conceive of the race as capable of      
remaining stationary1 or moving         
backward1 in morals1 while in every     
other respect it moves forward with     
constantly-increasing momentum1  who    
imagine that cunning and                
unscrupulousness are likely to be       
fostered  by enlarged civilisation4 ,so 
long as we allow the world to be        
exploited  for the selfish advantage of 
a handful of millionaires1 no doubt     
these  characteristics will continue at 

a premium4 ,but it is impossible to     
believe that the irresistible power of  
the mass of humanity will submit  in    
perpetuity to be thus made the tools of 
a minority4 ,if the ruling  classes     
wished to maintain that status they     
should have kept the  people from the   
schoolroom4 ,numbers must inevitably    
prevail1 and the  world will have       
reorganised itself in ways which1 if we 
could foresee  them in their entirety1  
would suggest an almost unthinkable     
perfection4                ,,index      
,a    ,actor1 the 7his art71 #fa        
,agriculture1 economies in1 #baf  ----1 
scientific development of1 #abg         
,alcohol1 abandonment of1 #cf  ---- and 
the law1 #bdb  ---- and crime1 #bdd     
,alphabet1 the1 #db  ,ansthetics1 #abj  
,animal food1 abandonment of1 #cd1 #abf 
,antisepsis and asepsis1 #aj            
,arboriculture1 #bag  ,architecture1    
#aid  ,argon1 #aa1 #bij  ,art1 ,a4,d4   
#bjjj1 #aif  ,atheism1 #agg      ,b     
,bacillary diseases1 destruction of1    

#abc  ,ballot1 the 7its inadequacy71    
#bfb  ,bathing1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #cje      
,bedroom1 the1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #be        
,bellamy1 ,edward1 #e  ,bible1          
inspiration of the1 #agf  ,birth-rate1  
the 7its artificial restriction71 #ad   
,bread1 wholemeal1 #cd  ,buildings1     
high1 #ag      ,c    ,calculating       
machines1 #de  ,canada 7its future71 #ig
  ,casabianca1 #aee  ,cereals1 #ce      
,climate1 artificial manipulation of1   
#abh  ,clothes1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bid      
,coal 7its utilisation71 #g  ----1      
exhaustion of1 #ajd  ,combination1      
voluntary1 as a mode of self-government1
 #baj  ,comte1 ,auguste1 #bic           
,conscience1 public1 #ahe  ,cooper1 ,e4 
,h4 7,the ,twentieth ,century ,child71  
#ade1 #aej1 note  ,co-operation1 #ea    
,cooking1 #bb  ,crime and heredity1 #bea
  ---- and poverty1 #bdd  ----          
elimination1 #bdg  ,criminal appeals 7in
 law71 #beg      ,d    ,daily           
,telegraph1 the1 #hd  ,darwin1 ,charles1
 #agi  ,davy1 ,sir ,humphry1 #f         

,diplomacy1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bfi          
,domestic servants1 #ah1 #bd  ,drainage1
 #be1 note1 #abg      ,e    ,economy in 
agriculture1 #bae  ----1 relation of    
prices to1 #bje  ---- in use of wood1   
#bae  ,edison1 ,t4 ,a41 #bia            
,education1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 apparatus of1 
#adj  ----1 art in1 #aga  ----1 books   
in1 #afc  ---- by pleasure1 #adi  ----1 
corporal punishment in1 #add  ----1     
crime in relation to1 #bcd  ----1       
history in1 #agj  ----1 rational        
obedience in1 #aed  ----1 languages in1 
#afd1 #aff  ----1 literature in1 #aga   
----1 mathematics in1 #afc  ----1 mixed 
7of boys and girls71 #adf  ----1        
phonograph in1 #ada1 #cjc1 note  ----1  
physical science in1 #afa  ----1        
punishments in1 #aeh  ----1 specialised1
 #afb  ----1 ,spencer on1 #aea note     
,education1 ,intellectual1 ,moral and   
,physical 7,h4 ,spencer71 #aea1 note    
,electricity1 the end of its age1 #aa   
----1 wireless transmission of1 #aad    
,eton1 punishments at1 #add  ,euclid1   

#aeg1 #aeh  ,evolution 7the term71 #cg1 
note      ,f    ,fashion1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 
#bii  ,flying-machines1 #bg1 #ee        
,foods1 vegetable1 #cc  ,freight        
transportation1 #df  ,furniture1 ,a4,d4 
#bjjj1 #cjb      ,g    ,games in        
education1 #adc  ,gases1 liquefied1 as a
 source of power1 #aaf      ,h          
,handicrafts1 revival of1 #ej  ,horse   
traffic 7its abolition71 #bb  ,house    
construction1 #bj  ---- cleaning1 #ba   
,huxley1 ,thomas ,h41 #f1 #agi          
,hydrogen1 uses of1 #i1 #ajb            
,hypnotism1 #aca      ,i    ,idography1 
,chinese1 #aff1 note      ,j            
,journalism and literature1 #ib  ,jury1 
trial by1 #beg      ,k    ,kelvin1      
,lord1 #ajh  ,kipling1 ,rudyard1 #adg   
,kitchen1 the1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bb      ,l
    ,lamb1 ,charles1 #aeh  ,land tenure1
 #ii1 #bei  ,lang1 ,andrew1 #abc1 note1 
#afd1 note1 #afh  ,language1 a          
universal1 #afe  ,languages1 modern1 #ai
  ,literature1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #aic1 #aih 
---- and journalism1 #ib  ,latey1 ,john1

 #add  ,law1 the1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bcc    
---- ----1 alcohol and1 #bda  ---- ----1
 changes in1 necessitated by new        
conditions1 #bdj  ---- ----1 cost of    
civil suits to be borne by ,government1 
#bec  ---- ----1 education and1 #bcd    
---- ----1 marriage and1 #bgh  ----     
----1 methods of legislation1 #bei  ----
 ----1 new offences and1 #bcd  ----     
----1 penology and1 #bdi  ---- ----1    
poverty and1 #bdd  ---- ----1 protective
 enactments injurious where avoidable1  
#bci  ---- ----1 protecting property1   
#bde  ---- ---- ----1 the person1 #bdf  
---- ----1 trial by jury1 #beg          
,legislation1 reform of1 #bff      ,m   
,macaulay1 ,lord1 #aic  ,manures 7see   
,agriculture71 #abg  ,marriage1 law of1 
,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bgh  ,medicine1 progress 
of1 #aai  ,memory 7children's71 #aea    
,merchandise ,marks ,act1 #bhi          
,middleman1 the1 #hh  ,morality and     
education1 #aed  ---- as affected by    
education1 #acf1 #aci1 #bce4  ---- as   
affected by progress1 #fd  ----1        

improving tendency of1 #cjg  ----1      
progress of1 #acf  ,morris1 ,william1 #e
  ,motor-cars1 slot-worked1 #ca  ,music1
 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #eh1 #bja  ----1         
,oriental1 #bja  ,musician1 the 7his    
art71 #fb      ,n    ,napoleon1 #d      
,newspapers1 advertisements in1 #hc     
----1 editorship of1 #fh  ----1 ,a4,d4  
#bjjj1 how illustrated1 #hj  ---- ----  
----1 language of1 #hb  ---- ---- ----1 
how printed1 #gi      ,o    ,ocean      
cities1 #ih  ---- ---- and the          
anhydrator1 #ii  ---- ----1 urban       
traffic in1 #ih  ,oersted1 #aag         
,oxygen1 uses of1 #i1 #bf1 #ajb  ,ozone 
and ozonators1 #bg      ,p    ,payn1    
,james1 #add  ,parliament1 reform of1   
#bfj  ,penology1 principles of1 in      
,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #bdi  ,philosophy1 ,a4,d4 
#bjjj1 #aji  ,phonograph1 the1 #dj  ----
 in education1 #ada1 #cjc1 note  ----1  
the printing1 #da  ,photography1        
chromatic1 #ei  ,plato1 #ahh  ,plumbers 
7their technical education71 #be        
,poetry of the future1 #aic  ,post      

,office1 the1 #bgf  ---- in ,a4,d4      
#bjjj1 #dd  ,power1 economy of1 #bab    
,prayer in ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #aij  ,press1  
freedom of the 7its possible            
restriction71 #bdg  ,prices1 relation   
of1 and economy1 #bje  ----1            
significance of1 #cb  ,progress1 rate   
of1 #a1 #ace1 #bhh  ,psychical          
faculties1 development of1 #fe1 #acj    
,punishment1 capital1 #bcg1 #beg        
,punishments1 violent1 will be          
abandoned1 #bch 7see ,penology7      ,r 
,radiation in therapeutics1 #aai        
,radium1 #aa1 #ajh1 #aah  ,railway      
transport1 #bg  ,recent ,development of 
,physical ,science 7,whetham71 #aaf1    
note  ,referendum1 #bfe  ,religion1     
,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #age  ----1 education and1
 #ahb  ----1 high civilisation and1 #age
  ----1 indifference towards1 #aha      
----1 morality and1 #ahf  ----1         
mysticism and1 #ahf1 #ahh  ----1        
natural1 #ahh  ----1 philosophy and1    
#ahg  ,review of ,reviews1 the1 #ga     
,roadways1 moving1 #cj      ,s          

,sahara1 desert of1 proposal to flood1  
#ie  ,saleeby1 ,dr4 ,c4 ,w41 #ajh1 #abc1
 note  ,salpetrire ,hospital1 #acj      
,scott1 ,sir ,walter1 #d  ,sculpture1   
,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #aih  ,sea air1 #bf  ----1
 the1 mineral wealth of1 #aja  ----     
----1 utilisation of1 #ie  ,shakespeare1
 #ahf  ,ships1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1 #cj        
,shorter1 ,clement ,k41 #add  ,siberia  
7its future71 #ic  ,socialism1 #ea1     
#bjf1 #baj1 #bgc  ,society1 gradual     
progress of1 #bhg  ,socrates1 #ahf      
,spencer1 ,herbert1 #ah1 #adf1 note1    
#ahh1 #bhg1 #bib  ,sports1 athletic1 #ed
  ,state1 the1 usurpation of wrong      
functions by1 #gd1 #bgc 7see ,socialism7
  ,steam-engine1 the 7its               
imperfections71 #g  ,suburbs1 #ae       
,t    ,talking-machines 7see            
,phonograph71 #fa  ,teleautoscope1 the  
7an instrument for seeing by            
electricity71 #dc  ,telephones1         
recording1 #ci  ,telephony1 wireless1   
#ch  ,theatre1 the1 #fj  ,times1 ,the1  
#fh1 #ga1 #hd  ,tobacco1 #bad  ,trade1  

retail 7its development and changes71   
#hf  ,traill1 ,h4 ,d41 #afi             
,transmutation of matter1 #aai  ,travel1
 pleasures of1 #eg  ,tyndall1 ,john1    
#aea1 note      ,u    ,unemployed1      
problem of the1 #dh      ,v    ,vacuum1 
cleaning by1 #ba  ,vice1 effect of      
progress on1 #fd      ,w    ,wages1 #cc 
---- and co-operation1 #ea  ,war1       
abolition of1 predicted1 #gf  ----      
correspondence1 #gd1 note1 #gf1 #gh1    
note  ----1 its supposed advantages     
discussed1 #bbf  ,waste by alcohol1 #bae
  ---- by animal food1 #bae  ----1      
illness regarded as a1 #bad  ----1      
sewage disposal a1 #bae  ----1 war as a1
 #bai 7see ,economy7  ,water1           
electrolysis of1 #h  ,weaklings1        
perpetuation of1 #abe  ,wealth1         
limitation of1 #di  ,wellington1 #e     
,wells1 ,h4 ,g41 #e1 #bj  ,whetham1 ,w4 
,c41 #aaf1 note  ,woman 7her political  
influence71 #bhc  ---- 7her political   
influence in ,america71 #bhd  ---- 7her 
political influence in ,new ,zealand71  

#bhd  ----1 position of1 ,a4,d4 #bjjj1  
#bhc1 7see ,law and ,marriage7          
,workmen1 condition of1 #eb  ----1      
trains for1 #ae                ,,notes  
#a ,drains1 it might be supposed1 would 
disappear altogether from the  scheme of
 things in favour of some kind of       
destructors4 ,for reasons  connected    
with a more enlightened view than we    
have yet reached of  certain aspects of 
terrestrial economy1 however1 ,i think  
they will1  with modifications1 still   
exist4    #b ,the chief difficulty in   
utilising the useful integument of wheat
  disappears when the whole grain is    
finely milled4    #c ,it is necessary to
 say here1 as an offset to possible     
misconstruction1 that the word evolution
 has been purposely abstained  from4    
,the processes of evolution are far     
slower than the changes  here           
contemplated4 ,the latter are voluntary 
and purposeful1 involving  no           
constructional alteration in the        
physical frame of man1 but only         

functional modifications1 intentionally 
inaugurated and pursued4    #d ,there is
 a contrivance already in existence     
which not only weighs  what is placed   
upon it1 but can also be made to        
calculate the value  of the goods at any
 desired rate per ounce1 pound or       
hundredweight4    #e ,a practical       
objection to this principle may be here 
anticipated  and answered4 ,politicians 
may say that for any one nation to be   
the pioneer in the adoption of such a   
policy would have the effect  of driving
 trade and manufactures into other      
countries where the  restriction did not
 exist4 ,but there are so many highly   
necessary  reforms open to a similar    
objection that ,i think there is no     
doubt  that ultimately the jurists of   
all nations will agree upon some        
arrangement for universal legislation1  
whereby laws not affecting the          
relations of one country with another   
will be simultaneously enacted  by a    
comity of nations4 ,we have already one 

very imperfect example  of such a       
procedure in the ,convention against    
bounty-helped sugar4    #f ,not of      
course in the artistic sense of the     
word2 nor is the  supersession of art by
 optical process in the least           
contemplated  here4 ,the psychological  
interest of art will have appreciators  
more  and more numerous in virtue of the
 diffusion of culture confidently       
anticipated4    #g ,ante1 ,chapter ,i4  
#h ,ante1 ,chapter ,i4    #i ,kipling3  
,the ,five ,nations4    #aj ,it can     
hardly be disputed that the ,british    
generals in the late  war in ,south     
,africa would have done well to cut the 
cables altogether1  or at all events    
reserve them exclusively for their own  
use4 ,there  is very good evidence that1
 in spite of the interdiction of coded  
messages1 information passed both ways  
between the enemy and his agents  in    
,europe4 ,the resolute manner in which  
the ,japanese kept newspaper            
correspondents away from the scene of   

action until no action remained  for    
them to correspond about1 shows         
conclusively what will become of  the   
war-reporter during the few remaining   
decades which separate us  from the     
final disappearance of moribund war     
itself from the planet4    #aa ,ante1   
,chapter ,,iii4    #ab ,ante1 ,chapter  
,,iv4    #ac ,ante1 page #g4    #ad     
,that is to say1 the gases which are    
most difficult to liquefy1 and  which   
consequently store up most energy in    
liquefying1 viz41 hydrogen1  oxygen and 
nitrogen1 as distinguished from ammonia1
 carbon-dioxide1  chlorine1 and other   
gases relatively easy to liquefy4    #ae
 ,the ,recent ,development of ,physical 
,science4 ,by ,w4 ,c4 ,whetham1         
,f4,r4,s41 #aijd4 ,london3 ,john        
,murray4    #af ,i do not forget that a 
good deal of what is on record as an    
account of experiments in transmutation 
is purely mystical writing1  and that   
when ,paracelsus and some of the ,french
 alchemists describe  what appear to be 

chemical experiments they are in reality
 referring  to something quite          
different4 ,but the learned in these    
matters tell  me that one of their chief
 difficulties arises from the fact that1
  contemporary with the mystics1 there  
were other investigators who1  not      
having the key to the occult            
significance of the masters'  writings1 
really devoted themselves to research1  
some valuable1 if  accidental1 results  
of which have come down to us and are   
recorded  in all text-books of          
chemistry4    #ag ,ante1 page #gi4      
#ah ,i might have boggled 7to use one of
 ,mr ,andrew ,lang's  stately           
colloquialisms7 before this suggestion1 
but for a remark  by ,dr ,c4 ,w4        
,saleeby1 which may here be quoted1 to  
keep me in  countenance4 ,malaria1 he   
writes in ,nova ,medica1 ,nov4 #aijd1   
which causes more illness than any other
 disease1 is already  obsolescent4      
,tuberculosis1 which causes more deaths 
than any other  disease1 can be disposed

 of1 apparently1 whenever the human     
race1  now mightily smitten with        
internecine strife1 decides that this   
campaign against a common foe is worth  
while4 ,it takes some seconds  to       
realise--or begin to realise--what the  
extinction of tuberculosis  will signify
 in private and hospital practice4 ,yet 
the extermination  of the last tubercle 
bacillus is an event quite certainly    
hidden in  the womb of time--time       
pregnant by science4    #ai ,ante1 page 
#cd4    #bj ,ante1 ,chapter ,,iii4      
#ba ,the ,twentieth ,century ,child4    
,chapter ,,iii4    #bb ,spencer3 ,study 
of ,sociology4 ,chapter ,,xv4    #bc    
,having properly decided that it is well
 for children to be  fed plainly while  
at school1 parents take the greatest    
pleasure in  alleviating this plainness 
by tuck baskets during term1 and the    
most wicked and immoral palate-tickling 
during holidays4 ,indeed an  excessive  
appetite seems to be regarded even by   
quite sensible people  as rather an     

ornament to the juvenile character4 ,mr 
,cooper1 whose  charming book1 ,the     
,twentieth ,century ,child1 has already 
been referred  to1 describes with what  
,i am afraid is approval the incident of
 a boy  whom he brought away from school
 for a pleasure-trip just after lunch1  
and who cheerfully devoured a second    
lunch in the company of his  friend4    
,assuredly our descendants will make no 
such mistakes as this4    #bd ,tyndall  
,on the ,importance of the ,study of    
,physics as a ,branch  of ,education1 a 
lecture at the ,royal ,institution3     
quoted by ,herbert  ,spencer in his     
,education1 ,intellectual1 ,moral and   
,physical1 a work  which1 though not    
very practical1 contains a mass of very 
suggestive  matter on a subject which no
 one else1 so far as ,i am aware1 has   
approached in quite the same spirit4 ,as
 this book has been reprinted  at so low
 a price as sixpence1 there is no excuse
 for any parent who  is unacquainted    
with its absolutely invaluable          

teachings4    #be ,i think ,mr ,andrew  
,lang4    #bf ,should we ever have a    
universal language1 is it altogether    
chimerical to imagine that it might be  
an idographic one8 ,provided  that some 
simple code of idographic writing were  
invented to denote  the very limited    
number of concrete notions essential to 
commercial  correspondence1 no one who  
has had occasion to study ,chinese1 even
  in the most cursory manner1 would     
think it at all a severe effort of  the 
imagination to conceive of an idographic
 notation as being used  for business   
correspondence4 ,in ,chinese1 the unit  
of expression is  an idea4 ,words which 
relate to kindred subjects include1 in  
their  idographs1 the sign for the      
connecting link4 ,thus the idograph  for
 agriculture is made up of the sign for 
strength and for  a field4              
,consequently1 although the ,japanese   
language when spoken  sounds so entirely
 unlike ,chinese that a person knowing  
neither can  distinguish one from the   

other when heard across the width of a  
street1  the ,japanese can read ,chinese
 books without difficulty1 and one form 
of printing can be read by the ,chinese 
of the ,north and those of  the ,south1 
although the spoken dialects differ so  
much that pidgin  ,english is often used
 by the two as a means of spoken        
communication4 ,an  idographic medium of
 commercial writing 7not of course so   
archaic nor  so cumbersome as ,chinese1 
but philosophically devised for the     
purpose7  would release the student from
 all difficulties of speech and accent2 
he would always name the signs to       
himself in his own language4    #bg ,a  
method1 it may be added1 which can very 
usefully be practised  now4 ,those of us
 who rub-up our ,french or ,german a    
little before  a summer holiday by      
reading a novel or two1 would always    
find the  results of this rubbing-up    
process to be greatly more effective1   
when  presently utilised abroad1 if we  
would read always aloud instead of  in  

silence according to the usual          
procedure4    #bh ,over-civilised1 if   
one please1 but ,i do not admit for an  
instant  that man can be over-civilised4
    #bi ,ante1 ,chapter ,,iii4    #cj   
,ante1 ,chapter ,,ii4    #ca ,against   
some methods of securing this object no 
doubt the  unintelligent sentimentality 
of the present time would rebel2 but if 
any inconsistency be detected in my     
suggestion that the next century1  which
 is expected to be even milder than     
this1 will accept them1 it  only needs  
to be replied that the gentleness of our
 descendants will  be a reasonable and  
ordered gentleness1 not a mere effect of
 morbid  sentimentality4 ,they will not 
hesitate before an apparent and         
temporary  cruelty which is capable of  
preventing much greater suffering in a  
much greater number of persons4 ,the    
crime of permitting children to  be born
 with brains abnormally predisposed to  
evil of any sort will  more greatly     
revolt an intelligent age than any      

conceivable measure  adopted for its    
prevention4    #cb ,it may1 perhaps1 be 
thought that the disuse of trial by jury
  would be liable to perpetuate a       
somewhat glaring abuse of our  present  
jurisprudence--the disproportionately   
severe repression of  offences against  
property as compared with the           
disproportionately  light repression of 
offences against the person4 ,but the   
mere fact  that the unlearned bench is  
conspicuously inept in this particular  
is no reason for thinking that learned  
courts would be so3 and  meantime1 as   
judges1 like other men1 are children of 
their epoch1  we may suppose that the   
increased mildness of the new age will  
be  reflected here as elsewhere1 and    
that extenuating circumstances  will be 
allowed more weight in determining a    
sentence for larceny1  and less weight  
in determining a sentence for assault4  
#cc ,study of ,sociology1 ,chapter ,,xv4
    #cd ,at least this was the opinion  
of the editors of the ,clarendon  ,press

 edition of the ,plays4    #ce ,while   
actually correcting the proof sheets ,i 
read in a ,london  evening newspaper1   
,the ,star1 that gramophones had been   
utilised in  certain schools for the    
teaching of foreign languages1 a device 
,i had  suggested in the chapter on     
,education as likely to be adopted in   
the  schools of the future4             
,,the ,,end                 ,,colston   
,,and ,,company1 ,,limited1 ,,printers1 
,,edinburgh