,,the ,,idea ,,of ,,progress ,,an ,,inquiry ,,into ,,its ,,origin ,,and ,,growth ,by ,j4 ,b4 ,bury ,regius ,professor ,of ,modern ,history1 ,and ,fellow ,of ,king's ,college1 ,in ,the ,university ,of ,cambridge ,dedicated to the memories of ,charles ,francois ,castel de ,saint-,pierre1 ,marie ,jean ,antoine ,nicolas ,caritat de ,condorcet1 ,auguste ,comte1 ,herbert ,spencer1 and other optimists mentioned in this volume4 ,tantane uos generis tenuit fiducia uestri8 ,,preface ,we may believe in the doctrine of ,progress or we may not1 but in either case it is a matter of interest to examine the origins and trace the history of what is now1 even should it ultimately prove to be no more than an idolum saeculi1 the animating and controlling idea of western civilisation4 ,for the earthly ,progress of humanity is the general test to which social aims and theories are submitted as a matter of course4 ,the phrase ,,civilisation ,,and ,,progress has become stereotyped1 and illustrates how we have come to judge a civilisation good or bad according as it is or is not progressive4 ,the ideals of liberty and democracy1 which have their own ancient and independent justifications1 have sought a new strength by attaching themselves to ,progress4 ,the conjunctions of liberty and progress1 democracy and progress1 meet us at every turn4 ,socialism1 at an early stage of its modern development1 sought the same aid4 ,the friends of ,mars1 who cannot bear the prospect of perpetual peace1 maintain that war is an indispensable instrument of ,progress4 ,it is in the name of ,progress that the doctrinaires who established the present reign of terror in ,russia profess to act4 ,all this shows the prevalent feeling that a social or political theory or programme is hardly tenable if it cannot claim that it harmonises with this controlling idea4 ,in the ,middle ,ages ,europeans followed a different guiding star4 ,the idea of a life beyond the grave was in control1 and the great things of this life were conducted with reference to the next4 ,when men's deepest feelings reacted more steadily and powerfully to the idea of saving their souls than to any other1 harmony with this idea was the test by which the opportuneness of social theories and institutions was judged4 ,monasticism1 for instance1 throve under its aegis1 while liberty of conscience had no chance4 ,with a new idea in control1 this has been reversed4 ,religious freedom has thriven under the aegis of ,progress2 monasticism can make no appeal to it4 ,for the hope of an ultimate happy state on this planet to be enjoyed by future generations--or of some state1 at least1 that may relatively be considered happy--has replaced1 as a social power1 the hope of felicity in another world4 ,belief in personal immortality is still very widely entertained1 but may we not fairly say that it has ceased to be a central and guiding idea of collective life1 a criterion by which social values are measured8 ,many people do not believe in it2 many more regard it as so uncertain that they could not reasonably permit it to affect their lives or opinions4 ,those who believe in it are doubtless the majority1 but belief has many degrees2 and one can hardly be wrong in saying that1 as a general rule1 this belief does not possess the imaginations of those who hold it1 that their emotions react to it feebly1 that it is felt to be remote and unreal1 and has comparatively seldom a more direct influence on conduct than the abstract arguments to be found in treatises on morals4 ,under the control of the idea of ,progress the ethical code recognised in the ,western world has been reformed in modern times by a new principle of far-reaching importance which has emanated from that idea4 ,when ,isocrates formulated the rule of life1 ,do unto others1 he probably did not mean to include among others slaves or savages4 ,the ,stoics and the ,christians extended its application to the whole of living humanity4 ,but in late years the rule has received a vastly greater extension by the inclusion of the unborn generations of the future4 ,this principle of duty to posterity is a direct corollary of the idea of ,progress4 ,in the recent war that idea1 involving the moral obligation of making sacrifices for the sake of future ages1 was constantly appealed to2 just as in the ,crusades1 the most characteristic wars of our medieval ancestors1 the idea of human destinies then in the ascendant lured thousands to hardship and death4 ,the present attempt to trace the genesis and growth of the idea in broad outline is a purely historical inquiry1 and any discussion of the great issue which is involved lies outside its modest scope4 ,occasional criticisms on particular forms which the creed of ,progress assumed1 or on arguments which were used to support it1 are not intended as a judgment on its general validity4 ,i may1 however1 make two observations here4 ,the doubts which ,mr4 ,balfour expressed nearly thirty years ago1 in an ,address delivered at ,glasgow1 have not1 so far as ,i know1 been answered4 ,and it is probable that many people1 to whom six years ago the notion of a sudden decline or break-up of our western civilisation1 as a result not of cosmic forces but of its own development1 would have appeared almost fantastic1 will feel much less confident to-day1 notwithstanding the fact that the leading nations of the world have instituted a league of peoples for the prevention of war1 the measure to which so many high priests of ,progress have looked forward as meaning a long stride forward on the road to ,utopia4 ,the preponderance of ,france's part in developing the idea is an outstanding feature of its history4 ,france1 who1 like ancient ,greece1 has always been a nursing-mother of ideas1 bears the principal responsibility for its growth2 and if it is ,french thought that will persistently claim our attention1 this is not due to an arbitrary preference on my part or to neglect of speculation in other countries4 ,j4 ,b4 ,,bury4 ,january1 #aibj4 ,,contents ,,introduction ,,chapter ,i ,,some ,,interpretations ,,of ,,universal ,,history3 ,,bodin ,,and ,,le ,,roy ,,chapter ,,ii ,,utility ,,the ,,end ,,of ,,knowledge3 ,,bacon ,,chapter ,,iii ,,cartesianism ,,chapter ,,iv ,,the ,,doctrine ,,of ,,degeneration3 ,,the ,,ancients ,,and ,,moderns ,,chapter ,v ,,the ,,progress ,,of ,,knowledge3 ,,fontenelle ,,chapter ,,vi ,,the ,,general ,,progress ,,of ,,man3 ,,abbe ,,de ,,saint-,,pierre ,,chapter ,,vii ,,new ,,conceptions ,,of ,,history3 ,,montesquieu1 ,,voltaire1 ,,turgot ,,chapter ,,viii ,,the ,,encyclopaedists ,,and ,,economists ,,chapter ,,ix ,,was ,,civilisation ,a ,,mistake8 ,,rousseau1 ,,chastellux ,,chapter ,x ,,the ,,year #bddj ,,chapter ,,xi ,,the ,,french ,,revolution3 ,,condorcet ,,chapter ,,xii ,,the ,,theory ,,of ,,progress ,,in ,,england ,,chapter ,,xiii ,,german ,,speculations ,,on ,,progress ,,chapter ,,xiv ,,currents ,,of ,,thought ,,in ,,france ,,after ,,the ,,revolution ,,chapter ,,xv ,,the ,,search ,,for ,a ,,law ,,of ,,progress3 ,i4 ,,saint-,,simon ,,chapter ,,xvi ,,search ,,for ,a ,,law ,,of ,,progress3 ,,ii4 ,,comte ,,chapter ,,xvii ,,progress ,,in ,,the ,,french ,,revolutionary ,,movement 7#ahcj-ahea7 ,,chapter ,,xviii ,,material ,,progress3 ,,the ,,exhibition ,,of #ahea ,,chapter ,,xix ,,progress ,,in ,,the ,,light ,,of ,,evolution ,,epilogue ,,appendix3 ,,notes ,,to ,,the ,,text ,proofreaders note3 these notes have been interspersed in the main text as ,footnotes ,,introduction ,when we say that ideas rule the world1 or exercise a decisive power in history1 we are generally thinking of those ideas which express human aims and depend for their realisation on the human will1 such as liberty1 toleration1 equality of opportunity1 socialism4 ,some of these have been partly realised1 and there is no reason why any of them should not be fully realised1 in a society or in the world1 if it were the united purpose of a society or of the world to realise it4 ,they are approved or condemned because they are held to be good or bad1 not because they are true or false4 ,but there is another order of ideas that play a great part in determining and directing the course of man's conduct but do not depend on his will--ideas which bear upon the mystery of life1 such as ,fate1 ,providence1 or personal immortality4 ,such ideas may operate in important ways on the forms of social action1 but they involve a question of fact and they are accepted or rejected not because they are believed to be useful or injurious1 but because they are believed to be true or false4 ,the idea of the progress of humanity is an idea of this kind1 and it is important to be quite clear on the point4 ,we now take it so much for granted1 we are so conscious of constantly progressing in knowledge1 arts1 organising capacity1 utilities of all sorts1 that it is easy to look upon ,progress as an aim1 like liberty or a world-federation1 which it only depends on our own efforts and good-will to achieve4 ,but though all increases of power and knowledge depend on human effort1 the idea of the ,progress of humanity1 from which all these particular progresses derive their value1 raises a definite question of fact1 which man's wishes or labours cannot affect any more than his wishes or labours can prolong life beyond the grave4 ,this idea means that civilisation has moved1 is moving1 and will move in a desirable direction4 ,but in order to judge that we are moving in a desirable direction we should have to know precisely what the destination is4 ,to the minds of most people the desirable outcome of human development would be a condition of society in which all the inhabitants of the planet would enjoy a perfectly happy existence4 ,but it is impossible to be sure that civilisation is moving in the right direction to realise this aim4 ,certain features of our progress may be urged as presumptions in its favour1 but there are always offsets1 and it has always been easy to make out a case that1 from the point of view of increasing happiness1 the tendencies of our progressive civilisation are far from desirable4 ,in short1 it cannot be proved that the unknown destination towards which man is advancing is desirable4 ,the movement may be ,progress1 or it may be in an undesirable direction and therefore not ,progress4 ,this is a question of fact1 and one which is at present as insoluble as the question of personal immortality4 ,it is a problem which bears on the mystery of life4 ,moreover1 even if it is admitted to be probable that the course of civilisation has so far been in a desirable direction1 and such as would lead to general felicity if the direction were followed far enough1 it cannot be proved that ultimate attainment depends entirely on the human will4 ,for the advance might at some point be arrested by an insuperable wall4 ,take the particular case of knowledge1 as to which it is generally taken for granted that the continuity of progress in the future depends altogether on the continuity of human effort 7assuming that human brains do not degenerate74 ,this assumption is based on a strictly limited experience4 ,science has been advancing without interruption during the last three or four hundred years2 every new discovery has led to new problems and new methods of solution1 and opened up new fields for exploration4 ,hitherto men of science have not been compelled to halt1 they have always found means to advance further4 ,but what assurance have we that they will not one day come up against impassable barriers8 ,the experience of four hundred years1 in which the surface of nature has been successfully tapped1 can hardly be said to warrant conclusions as to the prospect of operations extending over four hundred or four thousand centuries4 ,take biology or astronomy4 ,how can we be sure that some day progress may not come to a dead pause1 not because knowledge is exhausted1 but because our resources for investigation are exhausted--because1 for instance1 scientific instruments have reached the limit of perfection beyond which it is demonstrably impossible to improve them1 or because 7in the case of astronomy7 we come into the presence of forces of which1 unlike gravitation1 we have no terrestrial experience8 ,it is an assumption1 which cannot be verified1 that we shall not soon reach a point in our knowledge of nature beyond which the human intellect is unqualified to pass4 ,but it is just this assumption which is the light and inspiration of man's scientific research4 ,for if the assumption is not true1 it means that he can never come within sight of the goal which is1 in the case of physical science1 if not a complete knowledge of the cosmos and the processes of nature1 at least an immeasurably larger and deeper knowledge than we at present possess4 ,thus continuous progress in man's knowledge of his environment1 which is one of the chief conditions of general ,progress1 is a hypothesis which may or may not be true4 ,and if it is true1 there remains the further hypothesis of man's moral and social perfectibility1 which rests on much less impressive evidence4 ,there is nothing to show that he may not reach1 in his psychical and social development1 a stage at which the conditions of his life will be still far from satisfactory1 and beyond which he will find it impossible to progress4 ,this is a question of fact which no willing on man's part can alter4 ,it is a question bearing on the mystery of life4 ,enough has been said to show that the ,progress of humanity belongs to the same order of ideas as ,providence or personal immortality4 ,it is true or it is false1 and like them it cannot be proved either true or false4 ,belief in it is an act of faith4 ,the idea of human ,progress then is a theory which involves a synthesis of the past and a prophecy of the future4 ,it is based on an interpretation of history which regards men as slowly advancing--pedetemtim progredientes--in a definite and desirable direction1 and infers that this progress will continue indefinitely4 ,and it implies that1 as ,the issue of the earth's great business1 a condition of general happiness will ultimately be enjoyed1 which will justify the whole process of civilisation2 for otherwise the direction would not be desirable4 ,there is also a further implication4 ,the process must be the necessary outcome of the psychical and social nature of man2 it must not be at the mercy of any external will2 otherwise there would be no guarantee of its continuance and its issue1 and the idea of ,progress would lapse into the idea of ,providence4 ,as time is the very condition of the possibility of ,progress1 it is obvious that the idea would be valueless if there were any cogent reasons for supposing that the time at the disposal of humanity is likely to reach a limit in the near future4 ,if there were good cause for believing that the earth would be uninhabitable in ,a4,d4 #bjjj or #bajj the doctrine of ,progress would lose its meaning and would automatically disappear4 ,it would be a delicate question to decide what is the minimum period of time which must be assured to man for his future development1 in order that ,progress should possess value and appeal to the emotions4 ,the recorded history of civilisation covers #fjjj years or so1 and if we take this as a measure of our conceptions of time-distances1 we might assume that if we were sure of a period ten times as long ahead of us the idea of ,progress would not lose its power of appeal4 ,sixty thousand years of ,,historical time1 when we survey the changes which have come to pass in six thousand1 opens to the imagination a range vast enough to seem almost endless4 ,this psychological question1 however1 need not be decided4 ,for science assures us that the stability of the present conditions of the solar system is certified for many myriads of years to come4 ,whatever gradual modifications of climate there may be1 the planet will not cease to support life for a period which transcends and flouts all efforts of imagination4 ,in short1 the ,,possibility of ,progress is guaranteed by the high probability1 based on astro-physical science1 of an immense time to progress in4 ,it may surprise many to be told that the notion of ,progress1 which now seems so easy to apprehend1 is of comparatively recent origin4 ,it has indeed been claimed that various thinkers1 both ancient 7for instance1 ,seneca7 and medieval 7for instance1 ,friar ,bacon71 had long ago conceived it4 ,but sporadic observations--such as man's gradual rise from primitive and savage conditions to a certain level of civilisation by a series of inventions1 or the possibility of some future additions to his knowledge of nature--which were inevitable at a certain stage of human reflection1 do not amount to an anticipation of the idea4 ,the value of such observations was determined1 and must be estimated1 by the whole context of ideas in which they occurred4 ,it is from its bearings on the future that ,progress derives its value1 its interest1 and its power4 ,you may conceive civilisation as having gradually advanced in the past1 but you have not got the idea of ,progress until you go on to conceive that it is destined to advance indefinitely in the future4 ,ideas have their intellectual climates1 and ,i propose to show briefly in this ,introduction that the intellectual climates of classical antiquity and the ensuing ages were not propitious to the birth of the doctrine of ,progress4 ,it is not till the sixteenth century that the obstacles to its appearance definitely begin to be transcended and a favourable atmosphere to be gradually prepared4 ,footnote3 ,the history of the idea of ,progress has been treated briefly and partially by various ,french writers2 e4g4 ,comte1 ,cours de philosophie positive1 vi4 #cba sqq42 ,buchez1 ,introduction a la science de l'histoire1 i4 #ii sqq4 7ed4 #b1 #ahdb72 ,javary1 ,de l'idee de progres 7#ahej72 ,rigault1 ,histoire de la querelle des ,anciens et des ,modernes 7#ahef72 ,bouillier1 ,histoire de la philosophie cartesienne 7#ahed72 ,caro1 ,problemes de la morale sociale 7#ahgf72 ,brunetiere1 ,la ,formation de l'idee de progres1 in ,etudes critiques1 #e;e serie4 ,more recently ,m4 ,jules ,delvaille has attempted to trace its history fully1 down to the end of the eighteenth century4 ,his ,histoire de l'idee de progres 7#aiaj7 is planned on a large scale2 he is erudite and has read extensively4 ,but his treatment is lacking in the power of discrimination4 ,he strikes one as anxious to bring within his net1 as theoriciens du progres1 as many distinguished thinkers as possible2 and so1 along with a great deal that is useful and relevant1 we also find in his book much that is irrelevant4 ,he has not clearly seen that the distinctive idea of ,progress was not conceived in antiquity or in the ,middle ,ages1 or even in the ,renaissance period2 and when he comes to modern times he fails to bring out clearly the decisive steps of its growth4 ,and he does not seem to realise that a man might be progressive without believing in1 or even thinking about1 the doctrine of ,progress4 ,leonardo da ,vinci and ,berkeley are examples4 ,in my ,ancient ,greek ,historians 7#aiji7 ,i dwelt on the modern origin of the idea 7p4 #bec sqq474 ,recently ,mr4 ,r4 ,h4 ,murray1 in a learned appendix to his ,erasmus and ,luther1 has developed the thesis that ,progress was not grasped in antiquity 7though he makes an exception of ,seneca71--a welcome confirmation4 ,i ,it may1 in particular1 seem surprising that the ,greeks1 who were so fertile in their speculations on human life1 did not hit upon an idea which seems so simple and obvious to us as the idea of ,progress4 ,but if we try to realise their experience and the general character of their thought we shall cease to wonder4 ,their recorded history did not go back far1 and so far as it did go there had been no impressive series of new discoveries suggesting either an indefinite increase of knowledge or a growing mastery of the forces of nature4 ,in the period in which their most brilliant minds were busied with the problems of the universe men might improve the building of ships1 or invent new geometrical demonstrations1 but their science did little or nothing to transform the conditions of life or to open any vista into the future4 ,they were in the presence of no facts strong enough to counteract that profound veneration of antiquity which seems natural to mankind1 and the ,athenians of the age of ,pericles or of ,plato1 though they were thoroughly1 obviously modern compared with the ,homeric ,greeks1 were never self-consciously modern as we are4 #a4 ,the indications that human civilisation was a gradual growth1 and that man had painfully worked his way forward from a low and savage state1 could not1 indeed1 escape the sharp vision of the ,greeks4 ,for instance1 ,aeschylus represents men as originally living at hazard in sunless caves1 and raised from that condition by ,prometheus1 who taught them the arts of life4 ,in ,euripides we find a similar recognition of the ascent of mankind to a civilised state1 from primitive barbarism1 some god or other playing the part of ,prometheus4 ,in such passages as these we have1 it may be said1 the idea that man has progressed2 and it may fairly be suggested that belief in a natural progress lay1 for ,aeschylus as well as for ,euripides1 behind the poetical fiction of supernatural intervention4 ,but these recognitions of a progress were not incompatible with the widely-spread belief in an initial degeneration of the human race2 nor did it usually appear as a rival doctrine4 ,the old legend of a golden age of simplicity1 from which man had fallen away1 was generally accepted as truth2 and leading thinkers combined it with the doctrine of a gradual sequence of social and material improvements ,footnote3 ,in the masterly survey of early ,greek history which ,thucydides prefixed to his work1 he traces the social progress of the ,greeks in historical times1 and finds the key to it in the increase of wealth4 during the subsequent period of decline4 ,we find the two views thus combined1 for instance1 in ,plato's ,laws1 and in the earliest reasoned history of civilisation written by ,dicaearchus1 a pupil of ,aristotle4 ,footnote3 ,aristotle's own view is not very clear4 ,he thinks that all arts1 sciences1 and institutions have been repeatedly1 or rather an infinite number of times 7word in ,greek7 discovered in the past and again lost4 ,metaphysics1 xi4 #h ad fin42 ,politics1 iv4 #aj1 cp4 ii4 #b4 ,an infinite number of times seems to imply the doctrine of cycles4 ,but the simple life of the first age1 in which men were not worn with toil1 and war and disease were unknown1 was regarded as the ideal ,state to which man would lie only too fortunate if he could return4 ,he had indeed at a remote time ill the past succeeded in ameliorating some of the conditions of his lot1 but such ancient discoveries as fire or ploughing or navigation or law-giving did not suggest the guess that new inventions might lead ultimately to conditions in which life would be more complex but as happy as the simple life of the primitive world4 ,but1 if some relative progress might be admitted1 the general view of ,greek philosophers was that they were living in a period of inevitable degeneration and decay--inevitable because it was prescribed by the nature of the universe4 ,we have only an imperfect knowledge of the influential speculations of ,heraclitus1 ,pythagoras1 and ,empedocles1 but we may take ,plato's tentative philosophy of history to illustrate the trend and the prejudices of ,greek thought on this subject4 ,the world was created and set going by the ,deity1 and1 as his work1 it was perfect2 but it was not immortal and had in it the seeds of decay4 ,the period of its duration is #gb1jjj solar years4 ,during the first half of this period the original uniformity and order1 which were impressed upon it by the ,creator1 are maintained under his guidance2 but then it reaches a point from which it begins1 as it were1 to roll back2 the ,deity has loosened his grip of the machine1 the order is disturbed1 and the second #cf1jjj years are a period of gradual decay and degeneration4 ,at the end of this time1 the world left to itself would dissolve into chaos1 but the ,deity again seizes the helm and restores the original conditions1 and the whole process begins anew4 ,the first half of such a world-cycle corresponds to the ,golden ,age of legend in which men lived happily and simply2 we have now unfortunately reached some point in the period of decadence4 ,plato applies the theory of degradation in his study of political communities4 ,footnote3 ,plato's philosophy of history4 ,in the myth of the ,statesman and the last ,books of the ,republic4 ,the best elucidation of these difficult passages will be found in the notes and appendix to ,book viii4 in ,j4 ,adam's edition of the ,republic 7#aijb74 ,he conceives his own ,utopian aristocracy as having existed somewhere towards the beginning of the period of the world's relapse1 when things were not so bad1 ,footnote3 ,similarly he places the ideal society which he describes in the ,critias #ijjj years before ,solon4 ,the state which he plans in the ,laws is indeed imagined as a practicable project in his own day1 but then it is only a second-best4 ,the ideal state of which ,aristotle sketched an outline 7,politics1 iv4 v47 is not set either in time or in place4 and exhibits its gradual deterioration1 through the successive stages of timocracy1 oligarchy1 democracy1 and despotism4 ,he explains this deterioration as primarily caused by a degeneration of the race1 due to laxity and errors in the ,state regulation of marriages1 and the consequent birth of biologically inferior individuals4 ,the theories of ,plato are only the most illustrious example of the tendency characteristic of ,greek philosophical thinkers to idealise the immutable as possessing a higher value than that which varies4 ,this affected all their social speculations4 ,they believed in the ideal of an absolute order in society1 from which1 when it is once established1 any deviation must be for the worse4 ,aristotle1 considering the subject from a practical point of view1 laid down that changes in an established social order are undesirable1 and should be as few and slight as possible4 ,footnote3 ,politics1 ii4 #e4 ,this prejudice against change excluded the apprehension of civilisation as a progressive movement4 ,it did not occur to ,plato or any one else that a perfect order might be attainable by a long series of changes and adaptations4 ,such an order1 being an embodiment of reason1 could be created only by a deliberate and immediate act of a planning mind4 ,it might be devised by the wisdom of a philosopher or revealed by the ,deity4 ,hence the salvation of a community must lie in preserving intact1 so far as possible1 the institutions imposed by the enlightened lawgiver1 since change meant corruption and disaster4 ,these a priori principles account for the admiration of the ,spartan state entertained by many ,greek philosophers1 because it was supposed to have preserved unchanged for an unusually long period a system established by an inspired legislator4 #b4 ,thus time was regarded as the enemy of humanity4 ,horace's verse1 ,damnosa quid non imminuit dies8 time depreciates the value of the world1 expresses the pessimistic axiom accepted in most systems of ancient thought4 ,the theory of world-cycles was so widely current that it may almost be described as the orthodox theory of cosmic time among the ,greeks1 and it passed from them to the ,romans4 ,footnote3 ,plato's world-cycle4 ,i have omitted details not essential2 e4g4 that in the first period men were born from the earth and only in the second propagated themselves4 ,the period of #cf1jjj years1 known as the ,great ,platonic ,year1 was probably a ,babylonian astronomical period1 and was in any case based on the ,babylonian sexagesimal system and connected with the solar year conceived as consisting of #cfj days4 ,heraclitus seems to have accepted it as the duration of the world between his periodic universal conflagrations4 ,plato derived the number from predecessors1 but based it on operations with the numbers #c1 #d1 #e1 the length of the sides of the ,pythagorean right-angled triangle4 ,the ,great ,year of the ,pythagorean ,philolaus seems to have been different1 and that of the ,stoics was much longer 7#f1egj1jjj years74 ,i may refer here to ,tacitus1 ,dialogus c4 #af1 as an appreciation of historical perspective unusual in ancient writers3 ,the four hundred years which separate us from the ancients are almost a vanishing quantity if you compare them with the duration of the ages4 ,see the whole passage1 where the ,magnus ,annus of #ab1ied years is referred to4 ,according to some of the ,pythagoreans ,footnote3 ,see ,simplicius1 ,phys4 #gcb1 #bf4 each cycle repeated to the minutest particular the course and events of the preceding4 ,if the universe dissolves into the original chaos1 there appeared to them to be no reason why the second chaos should produce a world differing in the least respect from its predecessor4 ,the nth cycle would be indeed numerically distinct from the first1 but otherwise would be identical with it1 and no man could possibly discover the number of the cycle in which he was living4 ,as no end seems to have been assigned to the whole process1 the course of the world's history would contain an endless number of ,trojan ,wars1 for instance2 an endless number of ,platos would write an endless number of ,republics4 ,virgil uses this idea in his ,fourth ,eclogue1 where he meditates a return of the ,golden ,age3 ,alter erit tum ,tiphys1 et altera quae uehat ,argo ,delectos heroas2 erunt etiam altera bella1 ,atque iterum ad ,troiam magnus mittetur ,achilles4 ,the periodic theory might be held in forms in which this uncanny doctrine of absolute identity was avoided2 but at the best it meant an endless monotonous iteration1 which was singularly unlikely to stimulate speculative interest in the future4 ,it must be remembered that no thinker had any means of knowing how near to the end of his cycle the present hour might be4 ,the most influential school of the later ,greek age1 the ,stoics1 adopted the theory of cycles1 and the natural psychological effect of the theory is vividly reflected in ,marcus ,aurelius1 who frequently dwells on it in his ,meditations4 ,the rational soul1 he says1 wanders round the whole world and through the encompassing void1 and gazes into infinite time1 and considers the periodic destructions and rebirths of the universe1 and reflects that our posterity will see nothing new1 and that our ancestors saw nothing greater than we have seen4 ,a man of forty years1 possessing the most moderate intelligence1 may be said to have seen all that is past and all that is to come2 so uniform is the world4 ,footnote3 xi4 ,i4 ,the cyclical theory was curiously revived in the nineteenth2 century by ,nietzsche1 and it is interesting to note his avowal that it took him a long time to overcome the feeling of pessimism which the doctrine inspired4 #c4 ,and yet one ,stoic philosopher saw clearly1 and declared emphatically1 that increases in knowledge must be expected in the future4 ,there are many peoples to-day1 ,seneca wrote1 who are ignorant of the cause of eclipses of the moon1 and it has only recently been demonstrated among ourselves4 ,the day will come when time and human diligence will clear up problems which are now obscure4 ,we divide the few years of our lives unequally between study and vice1 and it will therefore be the work of many generations to explain such phenomena as comets4 ,one day our posterity will marvel at our ignorance of causes so clear to them4 ,how many new animals have we first come to know in the present age8 ,in time to come men will know much that is unknown to us4 ,many discoveries are reserved for future ages1 when our memory will have faded from men's minds4 ,we imagine ourselves initiated in the secrets of nature2 we are standing on the threshold of her temple4 ,footnote3 ,the quotations from ,seneca will be found in ,naturales ,quaestiones1 vii4 #be and #ca4 ,see also ,epist4 #fd4 ,seneca implies continuity in scientific research4 ,aristotle had stated this expressly1 pointing out that we are indebted not only to the author of the philosophical theory which we accept as true1 but also to the predecessors whose views it has superseded 7,metaphysics1 i4 ii4 chap4 #a74 ,but he seems to consider his own system as final4 ,but these predictions are far from showing that ,seneca had the least inkling of a doctrine of the ,progress of humanity4 ,such a doctrine is sharply excluded by the principles of his philosophy and his profoundly pessimistic view of human affairs4 ,immediately after the passage which ,i have quoted he goes on to enlarge on the progress of vice4 ,are you surprised to be told that human knowledge has not yet completed its whole task8 ,why1 human wickedness has not yet fully developed4 ,yet1 at least1 it may be said1 ,seneca believed in a progress of knowledge and recognised its value4 ,yes1 but the value which he attributed to it did not lie in any advantages which it would bring to the general community of mankind4 ,he did not expect from it any improvement of the world4 ,the value of natural science1 from his point of view1 was this1 that it opened to the philosopher a divine region1 in which1 wandering among the stars1 he could laugh at the earth and all its riches1 and his mind delivered as it were from prison could return to its original home4 ,in other words1 its value lay not in its results1 but simply in the intellectual activity2 and therefore it concerned not mankind at large but a few chosen individuals who1 doomed to live in a miserable world1 could thus deliver their souls from slavery4 ,for ,seneca's belief in the theory of degeneration and the hopeless corruption of the race is uncompromising4 ,human life on the earth is periodically destroyed1 alternately by fire and flood2 and each period begins with a golden age in which men live in rude simplicity1 innocent because they are ignorant not because they are wise4 ,when they degenerate from this state1 arts and inventions promote deterioration by ministering to luxury and vice4 ,interesting1 then1 as ,seneca's observations on the prospect of some future scientific discoveries are1 and they are unique in ancient literature1 ,footnote3 ,they are general and definite4 ,this distinguishes them1 for instance1 from ,plato's incidental hint in the ,republic as to the prospect of the future development of solid geometry4 they were far from adumbrating a doctrine of the ,progress of man4 ,for him1 as for ,plato and the older philosophers1 time is the enemy of man4 ,footnote3 ,the quotations and the references here will be found in ,nat4 ,quaest4 i4 ,praef42 ,epist4 #ajd1 ,sec4 #af 7cp4 #aaj1 ,sec4 #h2 #aag1 ,sec4 #bj1 and the fine passage in #fe1 ,sec4 #af-ba72 ,nat4 ,quaest4 iii4 #bh-cj2 and finally ,epist4 #ij1 ,sec4 #de1 cp4 ,sec4 #ag4 ,this last letter is a criticism on ,posidonius1 who asserted that the arts invented in primitive times were due to philosophers4 ,seneca repudiates this view3 omnia enim ista sagacitas hominum1 non sapientia inuenit4 ,seneca touches on the possibility of the discovery of new lands beyond the ocean in a passage in his ,medea 7#cgd sqq47 which has been often quoted3 uenient annis secula seris1 quibus oceanus uincula rerum laxet et ingens pateat tellus ,tiphysque novos detegat orbes1444 nec sit terris ultima ,thule4 #d4 ,there was however a school of philosophical speculation1 which might have led to the foundation of a theory of ,progress1 if the historical outlook of the ,greeks had been larger and if their temper had been different4 ,the ,atomic theory of ,democritus seems to us now1 in many ways1 the most wonderful achievement of ,greek thought1 but it had a small range of influence in ,greece1 and would have had less if it had not convinced the brilliant mind of ,epicurus4 ,the ,epicureans developed it1 and it may be that the views which they put forward as to the history of the human race are mainly their own superstructure4 ,these philosophers rejected entirely the doctrine of a ,golden ,age and a subsequent degeneration1 which was manifestly incompatible with their theory that the world was mechanically formed from atoms without the intervention of a ,deity4 ,for them1 the earliest condition of men resembled that of the beasts1 and from this primitive and miserable condition they laboriously reached the existing state of civilisation1 not by external guidance or as a consequence of some initial design1 but simply by the exercise of human intelligence throughout a long period4 ,footnote3 ,lucretius v4 #addh sqq4 7where the word ,,progress is pronounced73 ,usus et impigrae simul experientia mentis ,paulatim docuit pedetemtim progredientis4 ,sic unum quicquid paulatim protrahit aetas ,in medium ratioque in luminis erigit oras4 ,namque alid ex alio clarescere et ordine debet ,artibus1 ad summum donee uenere cacumen4 ,the gradual amelioration of their existence was marked by the discovery of fire and the use of metals1 the invention of language1 the invention of weaving1 the growth of arts and industries1 navigation1 the development of family life1 the establishment of social order by means of kings1 magistrates1 laws1 the foundation of cities4 ,the last great step in the amelioration of life1 according to ,lucretius1 was the illuminating philosophy of ,epicurus1 who dispelled the fear of invisible powers and guided man from intellectual darkness to light4 ,but ,lucretius and the school to which he belonged did not look forward to a steady and continuous process of further amelioration in the future4 ,they believed that a time would come when the universe would fall into ruins1 ,footnote3 ,ib4 #ie4 but the intervening period did not interest them4 ,like many other philosophers1 they thought that their own philosophy was the final word on the universe1 and they did not contemplate the possibility that important advances in knowledge might be achieved by subsequent generations4 ,and1 in any case1 their scope was entirely individualistic2 all their speculations were subsidiary to the aim of rendering the life of the individual as tolerable as possible here and now4 ,their philosophy1 like ,stoicism1 was a philosophy of resignation2 it was thoroughly pessimistic and therefore incompatible with the idea of ,progress4 ,lucretius himself allows an underlying feeling of scepticism as to the value of civilisation occasionally to escape4 ,footnote3 ,his eadem sunt omnia semper 7iii4 #ide7 is the constant refrain of ,marcus ,aurelius4 ,indeed1 it might be said that in the mentality of the ancient ,greeks there was a strain which would have rendered them indisposed to take such an idea seriously1 if it had been propounded4 ,no period of their history could be described as an age of optimism4 ,they were never1 by their achievements in art or literature1 in mathematics or philosophy1 exalted into self-complacency or lured into setting high hopes on human capacity4 ,man has resourcefulness to meet everything--words in ,greek1--they did not go further than that4 ,this instinctive pessimism of the ,greeks had a religious tinge which perhaps even the ,epicureans found it hard entirely to expunge4 ,they always felt that they were in the presence of unknown incalculable powers1 and that subtle dangers lurked in human achievements and gains4 ,horace has taken this feeling as the motif of a criticism on man's inventive powers4 ,a voyage of ,virgil suggests the reflection that his friend's life would not be exposed to hazards on the high seas if the art of navigation had never been discovered--if man had submissively respected the limits imposed by nature4 ,but man is audacious3 ,nequiquam deus abscidit ,prudens oceano dissociabili ,terras4 ,in vain a wise god sever'd lands ,by the dissociating sea4 ,daedalus violated the air1 as ,hercules invaded hell4 ,the discovery of fire put us in possession of a forbidden secret4 ,is this unnatural conquest of nature safe or wise8 ,nil mortalibus ardui est3 ,man finds no feat too hard or high2 ,heaven is not safe from man's desire4 ,our rash designs move ,jove to ire1 ,he dares not lay his thunder by4 ,the thought of this ode ,footnote3 i4 #c4 roughly expresses what would have been the instinctive sense of thoughtful ,greeks if the idea of ,progress had been presented to them4 ,it would have struck them as audacious1 the theory of men unduly elated and perilously at ease in the presence of unknown incalculable powers4 ,this feeling or attitude was connected with the idea of ,moira4 ,if we were to name any single idea as generally controlling or pervading ,greek thought from ,homer to the ,stoics1 ,footnote3 ,the ,stoics identified ,moira with ,pronoia1 in accordance with their theory that the universe is permeated by thought4 it would perhaps be ,moira1 for which we have no equivalent4 ,the common rendering fate is misleading4 ,moira meant a fixed order in the universe2 but as a fact to which men must bow1 it had enough in common with fatality to demand a philosophy of resignation and to hinder the creation of an optimistic atmosphere of hope4 ,it was this order which kept things in their places1 assigned to each its proper sphere and function1 and drew a definite line1 for instance1 between men and gods4 ,human progress towards perfection--towards an ideal of omniscience1 or an ideal of happiness1 would have been a breaking down of the bars which divide the human from the divine4 ,human nature does not alter2 it is fixed by ,moira4 #e4 ,we can see now how it was that speculative ,greek minds never hit on the idea of ,progress4 ,in the first place1 their limited historical experience did not easily suggest such a synthesis2 and in the second place1 the axioms of their thought1 their suspiciousness of change1 their theories of ,moira1 of degeneration and cycles1 suggested a view of the world which was the very antithesis of progressive development4 ,epicurean1 philosophers made indeed what might have been an important step in the direction of the doctrine of ,progress1 by discarding the theory of degeneration1 and recognising that civilisation had been created by a series of successive improvements achieved by the effort of man alone4 ,but here they stopped short4 ,for they had their eyes fixed on the lot of the individual here and now1 and their study of the history of humanity was strictly subordinate to this personal interest4 ,the value of their recognition of human progress in the past is conditioned by the general tenor and purpose of their theory of life4 ,it was simply one item in their demonstration that man owed nothing to supernatural intervention and had nothing to fear from supernatural powers4 ,it is however no accident that the school of thought which struck on a path that might have led to the idea of ,progress was the most uncompromising enemy of superstition that ,greece produced4 ,it might be thought that the establishment of ,roman rule and order in a large part of the known world1 and the civilising of barbarian peoples1 could not fail to have opened to the imagination of some of those who reflected on it in the days of ,virgil or of ,seneca1 a vista into the future4 ,but there was no change in the conditions of life likely to suggest a brighter view of human existence4 ,with the loss of freedom pessimism increased1 and the ,greek philosophies of resignation were needed more than ever4 ,those whom they could not satisfy turned their thoughts to new mystical philosophies and religions1 which were little interested in the earthly destinies of human society4 ,,ii #a4 ,the idea of the universe which prevailed throughout the ,middle ,ages1 and the general orientation of men's thoughts were incompatible with some of the fundamental assumptions which are required by the idea of ,progress4 ,according to the ,christian theory which was worked out by the ,fathers1 and especially by ,st4 ,augustine1 the whole movement of history has the purpose of securing the happiness of a small portion of the human race in another world2 it does not postulate a further development of human history on earth4 ,for ,augustine1 as for any medieval believer1 the course of history would be satisfactorily complete if the world came to an end in his own lifetime4 ,he was not interested in the question whether any gradual amelioration of society or increase of knowledge would mark the period of time which might still remain to run before the day of ,judgment4 ,in ,augustine's system the ,christian era introduced the last period of history1 the old age of humanity1 which would endure only so long as to enable the ,deity to gather in the predestined number of saved people4 ,this theory might be combined with the widely-spread belief in a millennium on earth1 but the conception of such a dispensation does not render it a theory of ,progress4 ,again1 the medieval doctrine apprehends history not as a natural development but as a series of events ordered by divine intervention and revelations4 ,if humanity had been left to go its own way it would have drifted to a highly undesirable port1 and all men would have incurred the fate of everlasting misery from which supernatural interference rescued the minority4 ,a belief in ,providence might indeed1 and in a future age would1 be held along with a belief in ,progress1 in the same mind2 but the fundamental assumptions were incongruous1 and so long as the doctrine of ,providence was undisputedly in the ascendant1 a doctrine of ,progress could not arise4 ,and the doctrine of ,providence1 as it was developed in ,augustine's ,city of ,god1 controlled the thought of the ,middle ,ages4 ,there was1 moreover1 the doctrine of original sin1 an insuperable obstacle to the moral amelioration of the race by any gradual process of development4 ,for since1 so long as the human species endures on earth1 every child will be born naturally evil and worthy of punishment1 a moral advance of humanity to perfection is plainly impossible4 ,footnote3 ,it may be added that1 as ,g4 ,monod observed1 les hommes du moyen age n'avaient pas conscience des modifications successives que le temps apporte avec lui dans les choses humaines 7,revue ,historique1 i4 p4 #h74 #b4 ,but there are certain features in the medieval theory of which we must not ignore the significance4 ,in the first place1 while it maintained the belief in degeneration1 endorsed by ,hebrew mythology1 it definitely abandoned the ,greek theory of cycles4 ,the history of the earth was recognised as a unique phenomenon in time2 it would never occur again or anything resembling it4 ,more important than all is the fact that ,christian theology constructed a synthesis which for the first time attempted to give a definite meaning to the whole course of human events1 a synthesis which represents the past as leading up to a definite and desirable goal in the future4 ,once this belief had been generally adopted and prevailed for centuries men might discard it along with the doctrine of ,providence on which it rested1 but they could not be content to return again to such views as satisfied the ancients1 for whom human history1 apprehended as a whole1 was a tale of little meaning4 ,footnote3 ,it may be observed that ,augustine 7,de ,civ4 ,dei1 x4 #ad7 compares the teaching 7recta eruditio7 of the people of ,god1 in the gradual process of history1 to the education of an individual4 ,prudentius has a similar comparison for a different purpose 7c4 ,symmachum1 ii4 #cae sqq473 ,tardis semper processibus aucta ,crescit vita hominis et longo proficit usu4 ,sic aevi mortalis habet se mobilis ordo1 ,sic variat natura vices1 infantia repit1 etc4 ,floras 7,epitome1 ad init47 had already divided ,roman history into four periods corresponding to infancy1 adolescence1 manhood1 and old age4 ,they must seek for some new synthesis to replace it4 ,another feature of the medieval theory1 pertinent to our inquiry1 was an idea which ,christianity took over from ,greek and ,roman thinkers4 ,in the later period of ,greek history1 which began with the conquests of ,alexander the ,great1 there had emerged the conception of the whole inhabited world as a unity and totality1 the idea of the whole human race as one4 ,we may conveniently call it the ecumenical idea--the principle of the ecumene or inhabited world1 as opposed to the principle of the polis or city4 ,promoted by the vast extension of the geographical limits of the ,greek world resulting from ,alexander's conquests1 and by his policy of breaking down the barriers between ,greek and barbarian1 the idea was reflected in the ,stoic doctrine that all men are brothers1 and that a man's true country is not his own particular city1 but the ecumene4 ,footnote3 ,plutarch long ago saw the connection between the policy of ,alexander and the cosmopolitan teaching of ,zeno4 ,de ,alexandri ,magni virtute1 i4 ,sec4 #f4 ,it soon became familiar1 popularised by the most popular of the later philosophies of ,greece2 and just as it had been implied in the imperial aspiration and polity of ,alexander1 so it was implied1 still more clearly1 in the imperial theory of ,rome4 ,the idea of the ,roman ,empire1 its theoretical justification1 might be described as the realisation of the unity of the world by the establishment of a common order1 the unification of mankind in a single world-embracing political organism4 ,the term world1 orbis 7terrarum71 which imperial poets use freely in speaking of the ,empire1 is more than a mere poetical or patriotic exaggeration2 it expresses the idea1 the unrealised ideal of the ,empire4 ,there is a stone from ,halicarnassus in the ,british ,museum1 on which the idea is formally expressed from another point of view4 ,the inscription is of the time of ,augustus1 and the ,emperor is designated as saviour of the community of mankind4 ,there we have the notion of the human race apprehended as a whole1 the ecumenical idea1 imposing upon ,rome the task described by ,virgil as regere imperio populos1 and more humanely by ,pliny as the creation of a single fatherland for all the peoples of the world4 ,footnote3 ,pliny1 ,nat4 ,hist4 iii4 #f4 #ci4 ,this idea1 which in the ,roman ,empire and in the ,middle ,ages took the form of a universal ,state and a universal ,church1 passed afterwards into the conception of the intercohesion of peoples as contributors to a common pool of civilisation--a principle which1 when the idea of ,progress at last made its appearance in the world1 was to be one of the elements in its growth4 #c4 ,one remarkable man1 the ,franciscan friar ,roger ,bacon1 ,footnote3 c4 ,a4,d4 #abaj-ib4 ,of ,bacon's ,opus ,majus the best and only complete edition is that of ,j4 ,h4 ,bridges1 #b vols4 #ahig 7with an excellent ,introduction74 ,the associated works1 ,opus ,minus and ,opus ,tertium1 have been edited by ,brewer1 ,fr4 ,rogeri ,bacon ,opera ,inedita1 #ahei4who stands on an isolated pinnacle of his own in the ,middle ,ages1 deserves particular consideration4 ,it has been claimed for him that he announced the idea of ,progress2 he has even been compared to ,condorcet or ,comte4 ,such claims are based on passages taken out of their context and indulgently interpreted in the light of later theories4 ,they are not borne out by an examination of his general conception of the universe and the aim of his writings4 ,his aim was to reform higher education and introduce into the universities a wide1 liberal1 and scientific programme of secular studies4 ,his chief work1 the ,opus ,majus1 was written for this purpose1 to which his exposition of his own discoveries was subordinate4 ,it was addressed and sent to ,pope ,clement ,,iv41 who had asked ,bacon to give him an account of his researches1 and was designed to persuade the ,pontiff of the utility of science from an ecclesiastical point of view1 and to induce him to sanction an intellectual reform1 which without the approbation of the ,church would at that time have been impossible4 ,with great ingenuity and resourcefulness he sought to show that the studies to which he was devoted--mathematics1 astronomy1 physics1 chemistry--were indispensable to an intelligent study of theology and ,scripture4 ,though some of his arguments may have been urged simply to capture the ,pope's good-will1 there can be no question that ,bacon was absolutely sincere in his view that theology was the mistress 7dominatrix7 of the sciences and that their supreme value lay in being necessary to it4 ,it was1 indeed1 on this principle of the close interconnection of all branches of knowledge that ,bacon based his plea and his scheme of reform4 ,and the idea of the solidarity of the sciences1 in which he anticipated a later age1 is one of his two chief claims to be remembered4 ,footnote3 ,cp4 ,opus ,tertium1 c4 iv4 p4 #ah1 omnes scientiae sunt connexae et mutuis se fovent auxiliis sicut partes ejusdem totius1 quarum quaelibet opus suum peragit non solum propter se sed pro aliis4 ,it is the motif of the ,opus ,majus1 and it would have been more fully elaborated if he had lived to complete the encyclopaedic work1 ,scriptum ,principale1 which he had only begun before his death4 ,his other title to fame is well-known4 ,he realised1 as no man had done before him1 the importance of the experimental method in investigating the secrets of nature1 and was an almost solitary pioneer in the paths to which his greater namesake1 more than three hundred years later1 was to invite the attention of the world4 ,but1 although ,roger ,bacon was inspired by these enlightened ideas1 although he cast off many of the prejudices of his time and boldly revolted against the tyranny of the prevailing scholastic philosophy1 he was nevertheless in other respects a child of his age and could not disencumber himself of the current medieval conception of the universe4 ,his general view of the course of human history was not materially different from that of ,st4 ,augustine4 ,when he says that the practical object of all knowledge is to assure the safety of the human race1 he explains this to mean things which lead to felicity in the next life4 ,footnote3 ,opus ,majus1 vii4 p4 #cff4 ,it is pertinent to observe that he not only shared in the belief in astrology1 which was then universal1 but considered it one of the most important parts of mathematics4 ,it was looked upon with disfavour by the ,church as a dangerous study2 ,bacon defended its use in the interests of the ,church itself4 ,he maintained1 like ,thomas ,aquinas1 the physiological influence of the celestial bodies1 and regarded the planets as signs telling us what ,god has decreed from eternity to come to pass either by natural processes or by acts of human will or directly at his own good pleasure4 ,deluges1 plagues1 and earthquakes were capable of being predicted2 political and religious revolutions were set in the starry rubric4 ,the existence of six principal religions was determined by the combinations of ,jupiter with the other six planets4 ,bacon seriously expected the extinction of the ,mohammedan religion before the end of the thirteenth century1 on the ground of a prediction by an ,arab astrologer4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 iv4 p4 #bff2 vii4 p4 #chi4 ,one of the greatest advantages that the study of astrological lore will bring to humanity is that by its means the date of the coming of ,anti-,christ may be fixed with certainty1 and the ,church may be prepared to face the perils and trials of that terrible time4 ,now the arrival of ,anti-,christ meant the end of the world1 and ,bacon accepted the view1 which he says was held by all wise men1 that we are not far from the times of ,anti-,christ4 ,thus the intellectual reforms which he urged would have the effect1 and no more1 of preparing ,christendom to resist more successfully the corruption in which the rule of ,anti-,christ would involve the world4 ,truth will prevail1 by which he meant science will make advances1 though with difficulty1 until ,anti-,christ and his forerunners appear2 and on his own showing the interval would probably be short4 ,the frequency with which ,bacon recurs to this subject1 and the emphasis he lays on it1 show that the appearance of ,anti-,christ was a fixed point in his mental horizon4 ,when he looked forward into the future1 the vision which confronted him was a scene of corruption1 tyranny1 and struggle under the reign of a barbarous enemy of ,christendom2 and after that1 the end of the world4 ,footnote3 7#a7 ,his coming may be fixed by astrology3 ,opus ,majus1 iv4 p4 #bfi 7inveniretur sufficiens suspicio vel magis certitudo de tempore ,antichristi2 cp4 p4 #djb74 7#b7 ,his coming means the end of the world3 ib4 p4 #bfb4 7#c7 ,we are not far from it3 ib4 p4 #djb4 ,one of the reasons which seem to have made this view probable to ,bacon was the irruption of the ,mongols into ,europe during his lifetime2 cp4 p4 #bfh and vii4 p4 #bcd4 ,another was the prevalent corruption1 especially of the clergy1 which impressed him deeply2 see ,compendium studii philosophiae1 ed4 ,brewer1 p4 #djb4 7#d7 ,truth will prevail1 etc43 ,opus ,majus1 i4 pp4 #ai1 #bj4 ,he claimed for experimental science that it would produce inventions which could be usefully employed against ,antichrist3 ib4 vii4 p4 #bba4 ,it is from this point of view that we must appreciate the observations which he made on the advancement of knowledge4 ,it is our duty1 he says1 to supply what the ancients have left incomplete1 because we have entered into their labours1 which1 unless we are asses1 can stimulate us to achieve better results2 ,aristotle corrected the errors of earlier thinkers2 ,avicenna and ,averroes have corrected ,aristotle in some matters and have added much that is new2 and so it will go on till the end of the world4 ,and ,bacon quotes passages from ,seneca's ,physical ,inquiries to show that the acquisition of knowledge is gradual4 ,attention has been already called to those passages1 and it was shown how perverse it is1 on the strength of such remarks1 to claim ,seneca as a teacher of the doctrine of ,progress4 ,the same claim has been made for ,bacon with greater confidence1 and it is no less perverse4 ,the idea of ,progress is glaringly incongruous with his vision of the world4 ,if his programme of revolutionising secular learning had been accepted--it fell completely dead1 and his work was forgotten for many ages1--he would have been the author of a progressive reform2 but how many reformers have there been before and after ,bacon on whose minds the idea of ,progress never dawned8 ,footnote3 ,bacon quotes ,seneca3 ,see ,opus ,majus1 i4 pp4 #cg1 #ee1 #ad4 ,much has been made out of a well-known passage in his short ,epistle de secretis operibus artis et naturae et de militate magiae1 c4 iv4 7ed4 ,brewer1 p4 #ecc71 in which he is said to ,,predict inventions which have been realised in the locomotives1 steam navigation1 and aeroplanes of modern times4 ,but ,bacon predicts nothing4 ,he is showing that science can invent curious and1 to the vulgar1 incredible things without the aid of magic4 ,all the inventions which he enumerates have1 he declares1 been actually made in ancient times1 with the exception of a flying-machine 7instrumentum volandi quod non vidi nec hominem qui vidisset cognovi1 sed sapientem qui hoc artificium excogitavit explere cognosco74 ,compare the remarks of ,s4 ,vogl1 ,die ,physik ,roger ,bacos 7#aijf71 #ih sqq4 #d4 ,thus ,friar ,bacon's theories of scientific reform1 so far from amounting to an anticipation of the idea of ,progress1 illustrate how impossible it was that this idea could appear in the ,middle ,ages4 ,the whole spirit of medieval ,christianity excluded it4 ,the conceptions which were entertained of the working of divine ,providence1 the belief that the world1 surprised like a sleeping household by a thief in the night1 might at any moment come to a sudden end1 had the same effect as the ,greek theories of the nature of change and of recurring cycles of the world4 ,or rather1 they had a more powerful effect1 because they were not reasoned conclusions1 but dogmas guaranteed by divine authority4 ,and medieval pessimism as to man's mundane condition was darker and sterner than the pessimism of the ,greeks4 ,there was the prospect of happiness in another sphere to compensate1 but this1 engrossing the imagination1 only rendered it less likely that any one should think of speculating about man's destinies on earth4 ,,iii #a4 ,the civilised countries of ,europe spent about three hundred years in passing from the mental atmosphere of the ,middle ,ages into the mental atmosphere of the modern world4 ,these centuries were one of the conspicuously progressive periods in history1 but the conditions were not favourable to the appearance of an idea of ,progress1 though the intellectual milieu was being prepared in which that idea could be born4 ,this progressive period1 which is conveniently called the ,renaissance1 lasted from the fourteenth into the seventeenth century4 ,the great results1 significant for our present purpose1 which the human mind achieved at this stage of its development were two4 ,self-confidence was restored to human reason1 and life on this planet was recognised as possessing a value independent of any hopes or fears connected with a life beyond the grave4 ,but in discarding medieval naivete and superstition1 in assuming a freer attitude towards theological authority1 and in developing a new conception of the value of individual personality1 men looked to the guidance of ,greek and ,roman thinkers1 and called up the spirit of the ancient world to exorcise the ghosts of the dark ages4 ,their minds were thus directed backwards to a past civilisation which1 in the ardour of new discovery1 and in the reaction against medievalism1 they enthroned as ideal2 and a new authority was set up1 the authority of ancient writers4 ,in general speculation the men of the ,renaissance followed the tendencies and adopted many of the prejudices of ,greek philosophy4 ,although some great discoveries1 with far-reaching1 revolutionary consequences1 were made in this period1 most active minds were engaged in rediscovering1 elaborating1 criticising1 and imitating what was old4 ,it was not till the closing years of the ,renaissance that speculation began to seek and feel its way towards new points of departure4 ,it was not till then that a serious reaction set in against the deeper influences of medieval thought4 #b4 ,to illustrate the limitations of this period let us take ,machiavelli1 one of the most original thinkers that ,italy ever produced4 ,there are certain fundamental principles underlying ,machiavelli's science of politics1 which he has indicated incidentally in his unsystematic way1 but which are essential to the comprehension of his doctrines4 ,the first is that at all times the world of human beings has been the same1 varying indeed from land to land1 but always presenting the same aspect of some societies advancing towards prosperity1 and others declining4 ,those which are on the upward grade will always reach a point beyond which they cannot rise further1 but they will not remain permanently on this level1 they will begin to decline2 for human things are always in motion and therefore must go up or down4 ,similarly1 declining states will ultimately touch bottom and then begin to ascend4 ,thus a good constitution or social organisation can last only for a short time4 ,footnote3 ,machiavelli's principle of advance and decline3 ,discorsi1 ii4 ,introduction2 ,istorie fiorentine1 v4 ad init4 ,for the cycle of constitutions through which all states tend to move see ,discorsi1 ii4 #b 7here we see the influence of ,polybius74 ,it is obvious that in this view of history ,machiavelli was inspired and instructed by the ancients4 ,and it followed from his premisses that the study of the past is of the highest value because it enables men to see what is to come2 since to all social events at any period there are correspondences in ancient times4 ,for these events are due to men1 who have and always had the same passions1 and therefore of necessity the effects must be the same4 ,footnote3 ,discorsi1 iii4 #dc4 ,again1 ,machiavelli follows his ancient masters in assuming as evident that a good organisation of society can be effected only by the deliberate design of a wise legislator4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 iii4 #a4 ,the lawgiver must assume for his purposes that all men are bad3 ib4 i4 #c4 ,villari has useful remarks on these principles in his ,machiavelli1 ,book ii4 cap4 iii4 ,forms of government and religions are the personal creations of a single brain2 and the only chance for a satisfactory constitution or for a religion to maintain itself for any length of time is constantly to repress any tendencies to depart from the original conceptions of its creator4 ,it is evident that these two assumptions are logically connected4 ,the lawgiver builds on the immutability of human nature2 what is good for one generation must be good for another4 ,for ,machiavelli1 as for ,plato1 change meant corruption4 ,thus his fundamental theory excluded any conception of a satisfactory social order gradually emerging by the impersonal work of successive generations1 adapting their institutions to their own changing needs and aspirations4 ,it is characteristic1 and another point of resemblance with ancient thinkers that he sought the ideal state in the past--republican ,rome4 ,these doctrines1 the sameness of human nature and the omnipotent lawgiver1 left no room for anything resembling a theory of ,progress4 ,if not held afterwards in the uncompromising form in which ,machiavelli presented them1 yet it has well been pointed out that they lay at the root of some of the most famous speculations of the eighteenth century4 ,footnote3 ,villari1 loc4 cit4 ,machiavelli's sameness of human nature meant that man would always have the same passions and desires1 weaknesses and vices4 ,this assumption was compatible with the widely prevailing view that man had degenerated in the course of the last fifteen hundred years4 ,from the exaltation of ,greek and ,roman antiquity to a position of unattainable superiority1 especially in the field of knowledge1 the degeneration of humanity was an easy and natural inference4 ,if the ,greeks in philosophy and science were authoritative guides1 if in art and literature they were unapproachable1 if the ,roman republic1 as ,machiavelli thought1 was an ideal state1 it would seem that the powers of ,nature had declined1 and she could no longer produce the same quality of brain4 ,so long as this paralysing theory prevailed1 it is manifest that the idea of ,progress could not appear4 ,but in the course of the sixteenth century men began here and there1 somewhat timidly and tentatively1 to rebel against the tyranny of antiquity1 or rather to prepare the way for the open rebellion which was to break out in the seventeenth4 ,breaches were made in the proud citadel of ancient learning4 ,copernicus undermined the authority of ,ptolemy and his predecessors2 the anatomical researches of ,vesalius injured the prestige of ,galen2 and ,aristotle was attacked on many sides by men like ,telesio1 ,cardan1 ,ramus1 and ,bruno4 ,footnote3 ,it has been observed that the thinkers who were rebelling against the authority of ,aristotle--the most dangerous of the ancient philosophers1 because he was so closely associated with theological scholasticism and was supported by the ,church--frequently attacked under the standard of some other ancient master2 e4g4 ,telesio resorted to ,parmenides1 ,justus ,lipsius to the ,stoics1 and ,bruno is under the influence of ,plotinus and ,plato 7,bouillier1 ,la ,philosophie cartesienne1 vol4 i4 p4 #e74 ,the idea of development in ,bruno has been studied by ,mariupolsky 7,zur ,geschichte des ,entwicklungsbegriffs in ,berner ,studien1 ,bd4 vi4 #ahig71 who pointed out the influence of ,stoicism on his thought4 ,in particular branches of science an innovation was beginning which heralded a radical revolution in the study of natural phenomena1 though the general significance of the prospect which these researches opened was but vaguely understood at the time4 ,the thinkers and men of science were living in an intellectual twilight4 ,it was the twilight of dawn4 ,at one extremity we have mysticism which culminated in the speculations of ,bruno and ,campanella2 at the other we have the scepticism of ,montaigne1 ,charron1 and ,sanchez4 ,the bewildered condition of knowledge is indicated by the fact that while ,bruno and ,campanella accepted the ,copernican astronomy1 it was rejected by one who in many other respects may claim to be reckoned as a modern--,i mean ,francis ,bacon4 ,but the growing tendency to challenge the authority of the ancients does not sever this period from the spirit which informed the ,renaissance4 ,for it is subordinate or incidental to a more general and important interest4 ,to rehabilitate the natural man1 to claim that he should be the pilot of his own course1 to assert his freedom in the fields of art and literature had been the work of the early ,renaissance4 ,it was the problem of the later ,renaissance to complete this emancipation in the sphere of philosophical thought4 ,the bold metaphysics of ,bruno1 for which he atoned by a fiery death1 offered the solution which was most unorthodox and complete4 ,his deification of nature and of man as part of nature involved the liberation of humanity from external authority4 ,but other speculative minds of the age1 though less audacious1 were equally inspired by the idea of freely interrogating nature1 and were all engaged in accomplishing the programme of the ,renaissance--the vindication of this world as possessing a value for man independent of its relations to any supermundane sphere4 ,the raptures of ,giordano ,bruno and the sobrieties of ,francis ,bacon are here on common ground4 ,the whole movement was a necessary prelude to a new age of which science was to be the mistress4 ,it is to be noted that there was a general feeling of complacency as to the condition of learning and intellectual pursuits4 ,this optimism is expressed by ,rabelais4 ,gargantua1 in a letter to ,pantagruel1 studying at ,paris1 enlarges to his son on the vast improvements in learning and education which had recently1 he says1 been brought about4 ,all the world is full of savants1 learned teachers1 large libraries2 and ,i am of opinion that neither in the time of ,plato nor of ,cicero nor of ,papinian were there such facilities for study as one sees now4 ,it is indeed the study of the ancient languages and literatures that ,gargantua considers in a liberal education1 but the satisfaction at the present diffusion of learning1 with the suggestion that here at least contemporaries have an advantage over the ancients1 is the significant point4 ,footnote3 ,rabelais1 ,book ii4 chap4 #h4 ,this satisfaction shines through the observation of ,ramus that in one century we have seen a greater progress in men and works of learning than our ancestors had seen in the whole course of the previous fourteen centuries4 ,footnote3 ,praefat4 ,scholarum ,mathematicarum1 maiorem doctorum hominum et operum proventum seculo uno vidimus quam totis antea #ad seculis maiores nostri viderent4 7,ed4 ,basel1 #aefi47 ,footnote #a4 ,guillaume ,postel observed in his ,de magistratibus ,atheniensium liber 7#aeda7 that the ages are always progressing 7secula semper proficere71 and every day additions are made to human knowledge1 and that this process would only cease if ,providence by war1 or plague1 or some catastrophe were to destroy all the accumulated stores of knowledge which have been transmitted from antiquity in books 7,praef41 ,b verso74 ,what is known of the life of this almost forgotten scholar has been collected by ,g4 ,weill 7,de ,gulielmi ,postelli vita et indole1 #ahib74 ,he visited the ,east1 brought back oriental ,,mss41 and was more than once imprisoned on charges of heresy4 ,he dreamed of converting the ,mohammedans1 and of uniting the whole world under the empire of ,france4 ,in this last stage of the ,renaissance1 which includes the first quarter of the seventeenth century1 soil was being prepared in which the idea of ,progress could germinate1 and our history of it origin definitely begins with the work of two men who belong to this age1 ,bodin1 who is hardly known except to special students of political science1 and ,bacon1 who is known to all the world4 ,both had a more general grasp of the significance of their own time than any of their contemporaries1 and though neither of them discovered a theory of ,progress1 they both made contributions to thought which directly contributed to its subsequent appearance4 ,,chapter ,i4 ,,some ,,interpretations ,,of ,,universal ,,history3 ,,bodin ,,and ,,le ,,roy #a4 ,it is a long descent from the genius of ,machiavelli to the ,french historian1 ,jean ,bodin1 who published his introduction to historical studies ,footnote3 ,methodus ad facilem historiarum cognitionem1 #aeff4 about forty years after ,machiavelli's death4 ,his views and his method differ widely from those of that great pioneer1 whom he attacks4 ,his readers were not arrested by startling novelties or immoral doctrine2 he is safe1 and dull4 ,but ,bodin had a much wider range of thought than ,machiavelli1 whose mind was entirely concentrated on the theory of politics2 and his importance for us lies not in the political speculations by which he sought to prove that monarchy is the best form of government ,footnote3 ,les six livres de la ,republique1 #aegf41 but in his attempt to substitute a new theory of universal history for that which prevailed in the ,middle ,ages4 ,he rejected the popular conception of a golden age and a subsequent degeneration of mankind2 and he refuted the view1 generally current among medieval theologians1 and based on the prophecies of ,daniel1 which divided the course of history into four periods corresponding to the ,babylonian ,persian1 ,macedonian1 and ,roman monarchies1 the last of which was to endure till the day of ,judgement4 ,bodin suggests a division into three great periods3 the first1 of about two thousand years1 in which the ,south-,eastern peoples were predominant2 the second1 of the same duration1 in which those whom he calls the ,middle 7,mediterranean7 peoples came to the front2 the third1 in which the ,northern nations who overthrew ,rome became the leaders in civilisation4 ,each period is stamped by the psychological character of the three racial groups4 ,the note of the first is religion1 of the second practical sagacity1 of the third warfare and inventive skill4 ,this division actually anticipates the synthesis of ,hegel4 ,footnote3 ,hegel's division is 7#a7 the ,oriental1 7#b7 a1 the ,greek1 b1 the ,roman1 and 7#c7 the ,germanic worlds4 ,but the interesting point is that it is based on anthropological considerations1 in which climate and geography are taken into account2 and1 notwithstanding the crudeness of the whole exposition and the intrusion of astrological arguments1 it is a new step in the study of universal history4 ,footnote3 ,climates and geography4 ,the fullest discussion will be found in the ,republique1 ,book v4 cap4 i4 ,here ,bodin anticipated ,montesquieu4 ,there was indeed nothing new in the principle2 it had been recognised by ,hippocrates1 ,plato1 ,aristotle1 ,polybius1 and other ,greeks1 and in a later age by ,roger ,bacon4 ,but ,bodin first developed and applied it methodically4 ,this part of his work was ignored1 and in the eighteenth century ,montesquieu's speculations on the physical factors in history were applauded as a new discovery4 ,i have said that ,bodin rejected the theory of the degeneration of man1 along with the tradition of a previous age of virtue and felicity4 ,footnote3 ,see especially ,methodus1 cap4 v4 pp4 #abd1 #acj1 #acf4 ,the reason which he alleged against it is important4 ,the powers of nature have always been uniform4 ,it is illegitimate to suppose that she could at one time produce the men and conditions postulated by the theory of the golden age1 and not produce them at another4 ,in other words1 ,bodin asserts the principle of the permanent and undiminishing capacities of nature1 and1 as we shall see in the sequel1 this principle was significant4 ,it is not to be confounded with the doctrine of the immutability of human things assumed by ,machiavelli4 ,the human scene has vastly changed since the primitive age of man2 if that so-called golden age could be revoked and compared with our own1 we should consider it iron4 ,footnote3 ,methodus1 cap4 ,,vii4 p4 #cec4 ,for history largely depends on the will of men1 which is always changing2 every day new laws1 new customs1 new institutions1 both secular and religious1 come into being1 and new errors4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 cap4 ,i4 p4 #ab4 ,but in this changing scene we can observe a certain regularity1 a law of oscillation4 ,rise is followed by fall1 and fall by rise2 it is a mistake to think that the human race is always deteriorating4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 cap4 ,,vii4 p4 #cfa3 cum aeterna quadam lege naturae conversio rerum omnium velut in orbem redire videatur1 ut aeque vitia virtutibus1 ignoratio scientiae1 turpe honesto consequens sit1 atque tenebrae luci1 fallunt qui genus hominum semper deterius seipso evadere putant4 ,if that were so1 we should long ago have reached the lowest stage of vice and iniquity4 ,on the contrary1 there has been1 through the series of oscillations1 a gradual ascent4 ,in the ages which have been foolishly designated as gold and silver men lived like the wild beasts2 and from that state they have slowly reached the humanity of manners and the social order which prevail to-day4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 p4 #cef4 ,thus ,bodin recognises a general progress in the past4 ,that is nothing new2 it was the view1 for instance1 of the ,epicureans4 ,but much had passed in the world since the philosophy of ,epicurus was alive1 and ,bodin had to consider twelve hundred years of new vicissitudes4 ,could the ,epicurean theory be brought up to date8 #b4 ,bodin deals with the question almost entirely in respect to human knowledge4 ,in definitely denying the degeneration of man1 ,bodin was only expressing what many thinkers of the sixteenth century had been coming to feel1 though timidly and obscurely4 ,the philosophers and men of science1 who criticised the ancients in special departments1 did not formulate any general view on the privileged position of antiquity4 ,bodin was the first to do so4 ,knowledge1 letters1 and arts have their vicissitudes1 he says2 they rise1 increase1 and nourish1 and then languish and die4 ,after the decay of ,rome there was a long fallow period2 but this was followed by a splendid revival of knowledge and an intellectual productivity which no other age has exceeded4 ,the scientific discoveries of the ancients deserve high praise2 but the moderns have not only thrown new light on phenomena which they had incompletely explained1 they have made new discoveries of equal or indeed greater importance4 ,take1 for instance1 the mariner's compass which has made possible the circumnavigation of the earth and a universal commerce1 whereby the world has been changed1 as it were1 into a single state4 ,footnote3 ,cardan had already signalised the compass1 printing1 and gunpowder as three modern inventions1 to which the whole of antiquity has nothing equal to show4 ,he adds1 ,i pass over the other inventions of this age which1 though wonderful1 form rather a development of ancient arts than surpass the intellects of our ancestors4 ,de subtilitate1 lib4 #c ad init4 7,opera1 iii4 p4 #fji74 ,take the advances we have made in geography and astronomy2 the invention of gunpowder2 the development of the woollen and other industries4 ,the invention of printing alone can be set against anything that the ancients achieved4 ,footnote3 ,methodus1 cap4 ,,vii41 pp4 #cei-fa4 ,bodin also points out that there was an improvement1 in some respects1 in manners and morals since the early ,roman ,empire2 for instance1 in the abolition of gladiatorial spectacles 7p4 #cei74 ,an inference from all this1 obvious to a modern reader1 would be that in the future there will be similar oscillations1 and new inventions and discoveries as remarkable as any that have been made in the past4 ,but ,bodin does not draw this inference4 ,he confines himself to the past and present1 and has no word to say about the vicissitudes of the future4 ,but he is not haunted by any vision of the end of the world1 or the coming of ,antichrist2 three centuries of humanism lay between him and ,roger ,bacon4 #c4 ,and yet the influence of medievalism1 which it had been the work of those three centuries to overcome1 was still pervasively there4 ,still more the authority of the ,greeks and ,romans1 which had been set up by the revival of learning1 was1 without their realising it1 heavy even upon thinkers like ,bodin1 who did not scruple freely to criticise ancient authors4 ,and so1 in his thoughtful attempt to find a clew to universal history1 he was hampered by theological and cosmic theories1 the legacy of the past4 ,it is significant of the trend of his mind that when he is discussing the periodic decline of science and letters1 he suggests that it may be due to the direct action of ,god1 punishing those who misapplied useful sciences to the destruction of men4 ,but his speculations were particularly compromised by his belief in astrology1 which1 notwithstanding the efforts of humanists like ,petrarch1 ,aeneas ,sylvius1 and ,pico to discredit it1 retained its hold over the minds of many eminent1 otherwise emancipated1 thinkers throughout the period of the ,renaissance4 ,footnote3 ,bodin was also a firm believer in sorcery4 ,his ,la ,demonomanie 7#aegh7 is a monument of superstition4 ,here ,bodin is in the company of ,machiavelli and ,lord ,bacon4 ,but not content with the doctrine of astral influence on human events1 he sought another key to historical changes in the influence of numbers1 reviving the ideas of ,pythagoras and ,plato1 but working them out in a way of his own4 ,he enumerates the durations of the lives of many famous men1 to show that they can be expressed by powers of #g and #i1 or the product of these numbers4 ,other numbers which have special virtues are the powers of #ab1 the perfect number ,footnote3 ,i4e4 a number equal to the sum of all its factors4 #dif1 and various others4 ,he gives many examples to prove that these mystic numbers determine the durations of empires and underlie historical chronology4 ,for instance1 the duration of the oriental monarchies from ,ninus to the ,conquest of ,persia by ,alexander the ,great was #agbh 7 #ab cubed7 years4 ,he gives the ,roman republic from the foundation of ,rome to the battle of ,actium #gbi 7#i cubed7 years4 ,footnote3 ,methodus1 cap4 v4 pp4 #bfe sqq4 #d4 ,from a believer in such a theory1 which illustrates the limitations of men's outlook on the world in the ,renaissance period1 we could perhaps hardly expect a vision of ,progress4 ,the best that can be said for it is that1 both here and in his astrological creed1 ,bodin is crudely attempting to bring human history into close connection with the rest of the universe1 and to establish the view that the whole world is built on a divine plan by which all the parts are intimately interrelated4 ,footnote3 ,cp4 ,baudrillart1 ,j4 ,bodin et son temps1 p4 #adh 7#ahec74 ,this monograph is chiefly devoted to a full analysis of ,la ,republique4 ,he is careful1 however1 to avoid fatalism4 ,he asserts1 as we have seen1 that history depends largely on the will of men4 ,and he comes nearer to the idea of ,progress than any one before him2 he is on the threshold4 ,for if we eliminate his astrological and ,pythagorean speculations1 and various theological parentheses which do not disturb his argument1 his work announces a new view of history which is optimistic regarding man's career on earth1 without any reference to his destinies in a future life4 ,and in this optimistic view there are three particular points to note1 which were essential to the subsequent growth of the idea of ,progress4 ,in the first place1 the decisive rejection of the theory of degeneration1 which had been a perpetual obstacle to the apprehension of that idea4 ,secondly1 the unreserved claim that his own age was fully equal1 and in some respects superior1 to the age of classical antiquity1 in respect of science and the arts4 ,he leaves the ancients reverently on their pedestal1 but he erects another pedestal for the moderns1 and it is rather higher4 ,we shall see the import of this when we come to consider the intellectual movement in which the idea of ,progress was afterwards to emerge4 ,in the third place1 he had a conception of the common interest of all the peoples of the earth1 a conception which corresponded to the old ecumenical idea of the ,greeks and ,romans1 ,footnote3 ,see above1 p4 #bc4 but had now a new significance through the discoveries of modern navigators4 ,he speaks repeatedly of the world as a universal state1 and suggests that the various races1 by their peculiar aptitudes and qualities1 contribute to the common good of the whole4 ,this idea of the solidarity of peoples was to be an important element in the growth of the doctrine of ,progress4 ,footnote3 ,republique1 ,book v4 cap4 #a 7p4 #fij2 ed4 #aeic72 ,methodus1 cap4 vi4 p4 #aid2 cap4 vii4 p4 #cfj4 ,these ideas were in the air4 ,another ,frenchman1 the classical scholar1 ,louis ,le ,roy1 translator of ,plato and ,aristotle1 put forward similar views in a work of less celebrity1 ,on the ,vicissitude or ,variety of the ,things in the ,universe4 ,footnote3 ,de la vicissitude ou variete des choses en l'univers1 #aegg1 #bnd ed4 7which ,i have used71 #aehd4 ,it contains a survey of great periods in which particular peoples attained an exceptional state of dominion and prosperity1 and it anticipates later histories of civilisation by dwelling but slightly on political events and bringing into prominence human achievements in science1 philosophy1 and the arts4 ,beginning with the advance of man from primitive rudeness to ordered society--a sketch based on the conjectures of ,plato in the ,protagoras--,le ,roy reviews the history1 and estimates the merits1 of the ,egyptians1 ,assyrians and ,persians1 the ,greeks1 ,romans and ,saracens1 and finally of the modern age4 ,the facts1 he thinks1 establish the proposition that the art of warfare1 eloquence1 philosophy1 mathematics1 and the fine arts1 generally flourish and decline together4 ,but they do decline4 ,human things are not perpetual2 all pass through the same cycle--beginning1 progress1 perfection1 corruption1 end4 ,this1 however1 does not explain the succession of empires in the world1 the changes of the scene of prosperity from one people or set of peoples to another4 ,le ,roy finds the cause in providential design4 ,god1 he believes1 cares for all parts of the universe and has distributed excellence in arms and letters now to ,asia1 now to ,europe1 again to ,africa1 letting virtue and vice1 knowledge and ignorance travel from country to country1 that all in their turn may share in good and bad fortune1 and none become too proud through prolonged prosperity4 ,but what of the modern age in ,western ,europe8 ,it is fully the equal1 he assevers1 of the most illustrious ages of the past1 and in some respects it is superior4 ,almost all the liberal and mechanical arts of antiquity1 which had been lost for about #abjj years1 have been restored1 and there have been new inventions1 especially printing1 and the mariner's compass1 and ,i would give the third place to gunnery but that it seems invented rather for the ruin than for the utility of the human race4 ,in our knowledge of astronomy and cosmography we surpass the ancients4 ,we can affirm that the whole world is now known1 and all the races of men2 they can interchange all their commodities and mutually supply their needs1 as inhabitants of the same city or world-state4 ,and hence there has been a notable increase of wealth4 ,vice and suffering1 indeed1 are as grave as ever1 and we are afflicted by the trouble of heresies2 but this does not prove a general deterioration of morals4 ,if that inveterate complaint1 the refrain chanted by old men in every age1 were true1 the world would already have reached the extreme limit of wickedness1 and integrity would have disappeared utterly4 ,seneca long ago made the right criticism4 ,hoc maiores nostri questi sunt1 hoc nos querimur1 hoc posteri nostri querentur1 eversos esse mores4444 ,at ista stant loco eodem4 ,perhaps ,le ,roy was thinking particularly of that curious book the ,apology for ,herodotus1 in which the eminent ,greek scholar1 ,henri ,estienne1 exposed with ,calvinistic prejudice the iniquities of modern times and the corruption of the ,roman ,church4 ,footnote3 ,l',introduction au traite de la conformite des merveilles anciennes avec les modernes1 ou traite preparatif a l',apologie pour ,herodote1 ed4 ,ristelhuber1 #b vols41 #ahgi4 ,the book was published in #aeff4 ,but if we are to judge by past experience1 does it not follow that this modern age must go the same way as the great ages of the past which it rivals or even surpasses8 ,our civilisation1 too1 having reached perfection1 will inevitably decline and pass away3 is not this the clear lesson of history8 ,le ,roy does not shirk the issue2 it is the point to which his whole exposition has led and he puts it vividly4 ,if the memory of the past is the instruction of the present and the premonition of the future1 it is to be feared that having reached so great excellence1 power1 wisdom1 studies1 books1 industries will decline1 as has happened in the past1 and disappear--confusion succeeding to the order and perfection of to-day1 rudeness to civilisation1 ignorance to knowledge4 ,i already foresee in imagination nations1 strange in form1 complexion1 and costume1 overwhelming ,europe--like the ,goths1 ,huns1 ,vandals1 ,lombards1 ,saracens of old--destroying our cities and palaces1 burning our libraries1 devastating all that is beautiful4 ,i foresee in all countries wars1 domestic and foreign1 factions and heresies which will profane all things human and divine2 famines1 plagues1 and floods2 the universe approaching an end1 world-wide confusion1 and the return of things to their original chaos4 ,footnote3 ,it is characteristic of the age that in the last sentence the author goes beyond the issue and contemplates the possibility which still haunted men's minds that the end of the world might not be far off4 ,but having conducted us to this pessimistic conclusion ,le ,roy finds it repugnant1 and is unwilling to acquiesce in it4 ,like an embarrassed dramatist he escapes from the knot which he has tied by introducing the deus ex machina4 ,however much these things proceed according to the fatal law of the world1 and have their natural causes1 yet events depend principally on ,divine ,providence which is superior to nature and alone knows the predetermined times of events4 ,that is to say1 it depends1 after all1 on ,providence whether the argument from past experience is valid4 ,who knows whether the modern age may not prove the exception to the law which has hitherto prevailed8 ,let us act as if it would4 ,this is the practical moral that ,le ,roy enforces in the last book of his dissertation4 ,we must not allow ourselves to be paralysed or dismayed by the destinies of past civilisations1 but must work hard to transmit to posterity all that has been achieved1 and augment the discoveries of the past by new researches4 ,for knowledge is inexhaustible4 ,let us not be so simple as to believe that the ancients have known and said everything and left nothing to their successors4 ,or that nature gave them all her favours in order to remain sterile ever after4 ,here ,le ,roy lays down ,bodin's principle which was to be asserted more urgently in the following century--the permanence of natural forces4 ,nature is the same now as always1 and can produce as great intellects as ever4 ,the elements have the same power1 the constellations keep their old order1 men are made of the same material4 ,there is nothing to hinder the birth in this age of men equal in brains to ,plato1 ,aristotle1 or ,hippocrates4 ,philosophically1 ,le ,roy's conclusion is lame enough4 ,we are asked to set aside the data of experience and act on an off-chance4 ,but the determination of the optimist to escape from the logic of his own argument is significant4 ,he has no conception of an increasing purpose or underlying unity in the history of man1 but he thinks that ,providence--the old ,providence of ,st4 ,augustine1 who arranged the events of ,roman history with a view to the coming of ,christ--may1 for some unknown reason1 prolong indefinitely the modern age4 ,he is obeying the instinct of optimism and confidence which was already beginning to create the appropriate atmosphere for the intellectual revolution of the coming century4 ,his book was translated into ,english1 but neither in ,france nor in ,england had it the same influence as the speculations of ,bodin4 ,but it insinuated1 as the reader will have observed1 the same three views which ,bodin taught1 and must have helped to propagate them3 that the world has not degenerated2 that the modern age is not inferior to classical antiquity2 and that the races of the earth form now a sort of mundane republic4 ,,chapter ,,ii4 ,,utility ,,the ,,end ,,of ,,knowledge3 ,,bacon #a4 ,among the great precursors of a new order of thought ,francis ,bacon occupies a unique position4 ,he drew up a definite programme for a great ,renovation of knowledge2 he is more clearly conscious than his contemporaries of the necessity of breaking with the past and making a completely new start2 and his whole method of thought seems intellectually nearer to us than the speculations of a ,bruno or a ,campanella4 ,hence it is easy to understand that he is often regarded1 especially in his own country1 as more than a precursor1 as the first philosopher1 of the modern age1 definitely within its precincts4 ,footnote3 ,german critics have been generally severe on ,bacon as deficient in the scientific spirit4 ,kuno ,fischer1 ,baco van ,verulam 7#ahef74 ,liebig1 ,ueber ,francis ,bacon van ,verulam und die ,methode der ,naturforschung 7#ahfc74 ,lange 7,geschichte des ,materialismus1 i4 #aie7 speaks of die aberglaubische und eitle ,unwissenschaftlichkeit ,bacos4 ,it is not indeed a matter of fundamental importance how we classify these men who stood on the border of two worlds1 but it must be recognised that if in many respects ,bacon is in advance of contemporaries who cannot be dissociated from the ,renaissance1 in other respects1 such as belief in astrology and dreams1 he stands on the same ground1 and in one essential point--which might almost be taken as the test of mental progress at this period--,bruno and ,campanella have outstripped him4 ,for him ,copernicus1 ,kepler1 and ,galileo worked in vain2 he obstinately adhered to the old geocentric system4 ,it must also be remembered that the principle which he laid down in his ambitious programme for the reform of science--that experiment is the key for discovering the secrets of nature--was not a new revelation4 ,we need not dwell on the fact that he had been anticipated by ,roger ,bacon2 for the ideas of that wonderful thinker had fallen dead in an age which was not ripe for them4 ,but the direct interrogation of nature was already recognised both in practice and in theory in the sixteenth century4 ,what ,bacon did was to insist upon the principle more strongly and explicitly1 and to formulate it more precisely4 ,he clarified and explained the progressive ideas which inspired the scientific thought of the last period of the ,european ,renaissance1 from which he cannot1 ,i think1 be dissociated4 ,but in clearing up and defining these progressive ideas1 he made a contribution to the development of human thought which had far-reaching importance and has a special significance for our present subject4 ,in the hopes of a steady increase of knowledge1 based on the application of new methods1 he had been anticipated by ,roger ,bacon1 and further back by ,seneca4 ,but with ,francis ,bacon this idea of the augmentation of knowledge has an entirely new value4 ,for ,seneca the exploration of nature was a means of escaping from the sordid miseries of life4 ,for the friar of ,oxford the principal use of increasing knowledge was to prepare for the coming of ,antichrist4 ,francis ,bacon sounded the modern note2 for him the end of knowledge is utility4 ,footnote2 ,the passages specially referred to are3 ,de ,aug4 ,sc4 vii4 i2 ,nov4 ,org4 i4 #ha and #c4 #b4 ,the principle that the proper aim of knowledge is the amelioration of human life1 to increase men's happiness and mitigate their sufferings--commodis humanis inservire--was the guiding star of ,bacon in all his intellectual labour4 ,he declared the advancement of the happiness of mankind to be the direct purpose of the works he had written or designed4 ,he considered that all his predecessors had gone wrong because they did not apprehend that the finis scientarum1 the real and legitimate goal of the sciences1 is the endowment of human life with new inventions and riches2 and he made this the test for defining the comparative values of the various branches of knowledge4 ,the true object1 therefore1 of the investigation of nature is not1 as the ,greek philosophers held1 speculative satisfaction1 but to establish the reign of man over nature2 and this ,bacon judged to be attainable1 provided new methods of attacking the problems were introduced4 ,whatever may be thought of his daring act in bringing natural science down from the clouds and assigning to her the function of ministering to the material convenience and comfort of man1 we may criticise ,bacon for his doctrine that every branch of science should be pursued with a single eye towards practical use4 ,mathematics1 he thought1 should conduct herself as a humble1 if necessary1 handmaid1 without any aspirations of her own4 ,but it is not thus that the great progress in man's command over nature since ,bacon's age has been effected4 ,many of the most valuable and surprising things which science has succeeded in doing for civilisation would never have been performed if each branch of knowledge were not guided by its own independent ideal of speculative completeness4 ,footnote3 ,this was to be well explained by ,fontenelle1 ,preface sur l'utilite des mathematiques1 in ,oeuvres 7ed4 #agbi71 iii1 ,i sqq4 ,but this does not invalidate ,bacon's pragmatic principle1 or diminish the importance of the fact that in laying down the utilitarian view of knowledge he contributed to the creation of a new mental atmosphere in which the theory of ,progress was afterwards to develop4 #c4 ,bacon's respect for the ancients and his familiarity with their writings are apparent on almost every page he wrote4 ,yet it was one of his principal endeavours to shake off the yoke of their authority1 which he recognised to be a fatal obstacle to the advancement of science4 ,truth is not to be sought in the good fortune of any particular conjuncture of time2 its attainment depends on experience1 and how limited was theirs4 ,in their age the knowledge both of time and of the world was confined and meagre2 they had not a thousand years of history worthy of that name1 but mere fables and ancient traditions2 they were not acquainted with but a small portion of the regions and countries of the world4 ,footnote3 ,nov4 ,org4 i4 #hd2 #ef1 #gb1 #gc1 #gd4 ,in all their systems and scientific speculation there is hardly one single experiment that has a tendency to assist mankind4 ,their theories were founded on opinion1 and therefore science has remained stationary for the last two thousand years2 whereas mechanical arts1 which are founded on nature and experience1 grow and increase4 ,in this connection1 ,bacon points out that the word antiquity is misleading1 and makes a remark which will frequently recur in writers of the following generations4 ,antiquitas seculi iuventus mundi2 what we call antiquity and are accustomed to revere as such was the youth of the world4 ,but it is the old age and increasing years of the world--the time in which we are now living--that deserves in truth to be called antiquity4 ,we are really the ancients1 the ,greeks and ,romans were younger than we1 in respect to the age of the world4 ,and as we look to an old man for greater knowledge of the world than from a young man1 so we have good reason to expect far greater things from our own age than from antiquity1 because in the meantime the stock of knowledge has been increased by an endless number of observations and experiments4 ,time is the great discoverer1 and truth is the daughter of time1 not of authority4 ,take the three inventions which were unknown to the ancients-printing1 gunpowder1 and the compass4 ,these have changed the appearance and state of the whole world2 first in literature1 then in warfare1 and lastly in navigation2 and innumerable changes have been thence derived1 so that no empire1 sect1 or star appears to have exercised a greater power or influence on human affairs than these mechanical discoveries4 ,footnote3 ,nov4 ,org4 #abi4 ,we have seen that these three inventions had already been classed together as outstanding by ,cardan and ,le ,roy4 ,they also appear in ,campanella4 ,bodin1 as we saw1 included them in a longer list4 ,it was perhaps the results of navigation and the exploration of unknown lands that impressed ,bacon more than all1 as they had impressed ,bodin4 ,let me quote one passage4 ,it may truly be affirmed to the honour of these times1 and in a virtuous emulation with antiquity1 that this great building of the world had never through-lights made in it till the age of us and our fathers4 ,for although they the ancients had knowledge of the antipodes444 yet that mought be by demonstration1 and not in fact2 and if by travel1 it requireth the voyage but of half the earth4 ,but to circle the earth1 as the heavenly bodies do1 was not done nor enterprised till these later times3 and therefore these times may justly bear in their word444 plus ultra in precedence of the ancient non ultra4444 ,and this proficience in navigation and discoveries may plant also an expectation of the further proficience and augmentation of all sciences1 because it may seem that they are ordained by ,god to be coevals1 that is1 to meet in one age4 ,for so the prophet ,daniel1 speaking of the latter times foretelleth1 ,plurimi pertransibunt1 et multiplex erit scientia3 as if the openness and through-passage of the world and the increase of knowledge were appointed to be in the same ages2 as we see it is already performed in great part3 the learning of these later times not much giving place to the former two periods or returns of learning1 the one of the ,grecians1 the other of the ,romans4 ,footnote3 ,advancement of ,learning1 ii4 #ac1 #ad4 ,in all this we have a definite recognition of the fact that knowledge progresses4 ,bacon did not come into close quarters with the history of civilisation1 but he has thrown out some observations which amount to a rough synthesis4 ,footnote3 ,advancement1 ii4 #a1 #f2 ,nov4 ,org4 i4 #gh1 #gi1 #he4 ,like ,bodin1 he divided1 history into three periods--7#a7 the antiquities of the world2 7#b7 the middle part of time which comprised two sections1 the ,greek and the ,roman2 7#c7 modern history1 which included what we now call the ,middle ,ages4 ,in this sequence three particular epochs stand out as fertile in science and favourable to progress--the ,greek1 the ,roman1 and our own--and scarcely two centuries can with justice be assigned to each4 ,the other periods of time are deserts1 so far as philosophy and science are concerned4 ,rome and ,greece are two exemplar ,states of the world for arms1 learning1 moral virtue1 policy1 and laws4 ,but even in those two great epochs little progress was made in natural philosophy4 ,for in ,greece moral and political speculation absorbed men's minds2 in ,rome1 meditation and labour were wasted on moral philosophy1 and the greatest intellects were devoted to civil affairs4 ,afterwards1 in the third period1 the study of theology was the chief occupation of the ,western ,european nations4 ,it was actually in the earliest period that the most useful discoveries for the comfort of human life were made1 so that1 to say the truth1 when contemplation and doctrinal science began1 the discovery of useful works ceased4 ,so much for the past history of mankind1 during which many things conspired to make progress in the subjugation of nature slow1 fitful1 and fortuitous4 ,what of the future8 ,bacon's answer is3 if the errors of the past are understood and avoided there is every hope of steady progress in the modern age4 ,but it might be asked4 ,is there not something in the constitution of things which determines epochs of stagnation and vigour1 some force against which man's understanding and will are impotent8 ,is it not true that in the revolutions of ages there are floods and ebbs of the sciences1 which flourish now and then decline1 and that when they have reached a certain point they can proceed no further8 ,this doctrine of ,returns or ricorsi ,footnote3 ,bodin's conversiones4 is denounced by ,bacon as the greatest obstacle to the advancement of knowledge1 creating1 as it does1 diffidence or despair4 ,he does not formally refute it1 but he marshals the reasons for an optimistic view1 and these reasons supply the disproof ,the facts on which the fatalistic doctrine of ,returns is based can be explained without resorting to any mysterious law4 ,footnote3 ,nov4 ,org4 i4 #ib sqq4 ,progress has not been steady or continuous on account of the prejudices and errors which hindered men from setting to work in the right way4 ,the difficulties in advancing did not arise from things which are not in our power2 they were due to the human understanding1 which wasted time and labour on improper objects4 ,in proportion as the errors which have been committed impeded the past1 so do they afford reason to hope for the future4 #d4 ,but will the new period of advance1 which ,bacon expected and strove to secure1 be of indefinite duration8 ,he does not consider the question4 ,his view that he lived in the old age of the world implies that he did not anticipate a vast tract of time before the end of mankind's career on earth4 ,and an orthodox ,christian of that time could hardly be expected to predict4 ,the impression we get is that1 in his sanguine enthusiasm1 he imagined that a prudent interrogation of nature could extort all her secrets in a few generations4 ,as a reformer he was so engaged in the immediate prospect of results that his imagination did not turn to the possibilities of a remoter future1 though these would logically follow from his recognition of the inseparable propriety of time which is ever more and more to disclose truth4 ,he hopes everything from his own age in which learning has made her third visitation to the world1 a period which he is persuaded will far surpass that of ,grecian and ,roman learning4 ,footnote3 ,advancement1 ii4 #bd4 ,if he could have revisited ,england in #agjj and surveyed what science had performed since his death his hopes might have been more than satisfied4 ,but1 animated though he was with the progressive spirit1 as ,leonardo da ,vinci had been before him1 all that he says of the prospects of an increase of knowledge fails to amount to the theory of ,progress4 ,he prepares the way1 he leads up to it2 but his conception of his own time as the old age of humanity excludes the conception of an indefinite advance in the future1 which is essential if the theory is to have significance and value4 ,and in regard to progress in the past1 though he is clearer and more emphatic than ,bodin1 he hardly adds anything to what ,bodin had observed4 ,the novelty of his view lies not in his recognition of the advance of knowledge and its power to advance still further1 but in the purpose which he assigned to it4 ,footnote3 ,campanella held its purpose to be the contemplation of the wisdom of ,god2 cp41 for instance1 ,de sensu rerum1 ,bk4 iv4 epilogus1 where the world is described as statua ,dei altissimi 7p4 #cgj2 ed4 #afbj74 ,the end of the sciences is their usefulness to the human race4 ,to increase knowledge is to extend the dominion of man over nature1 and so to increase his comfort and happiness1 so far as these depend on external circumstances4 ,to ,plato or ,seneca1 or to a ,christian dreaming of the ,city of ,god1 this doctrine would seem material and trivial2 and its announcement was revolutionary3 for it implied that happiness on earth was an end to be pursued for its own sake1 and to be secured by co-operation for mankind at large4 ,this idea is an axiom which any general doctrine of ,progress must presuppose2 and it forms ,bacon's great contribution to the group of ideas which rendered possible the subsequent rise of that doctrine4 ,finally1 we must remember that by ,bacon1 as by most of his ,elizabethan contemporaries1 the doctrine of an active intervening ,providence1 the ,providence of ,augustine1 was taken as a matter of course1 and governed more or less their conceptions of the history of civilisation4 ,but1 ,i think1 we may say that ,bacon1 while he formally acknowledged it1 did not press it or emphasise it4 ,footnote3 ,see ,advancement1 iii4 ,,ii4 ,on the influence of the doctrine on historical writing in ,england at the beginning of the seventeenth century see ,firth1 ,sir ,walter ,raleigh's ,history of the ,world 7,proc4 of ,british ,academy1 vol4 viii41 #aiai71 p4 #h4 #e4 ,bacon illustrated his view of the social importance of science in his sketch of an ideal state1 the ,new ,atlantis4 ,he completed only a part of the work1 and the fragment was published after his death4 ,footnote3 ,in #afbg4 ,it was composed about #afbc4 ,it seems almost certain that he was acquainted with the ,christianopolis of ,johann ,valentin ,andreae 7#aehf-afed71 which had appeared in ,latin in #afad1 and contained a plan for a scientific college to reform the civilised world4 ,andreae1 who was acquainted both with ,more and with ,campanella1 placed his ideal society in an island which he called ,caphar ,salama 7the name of a village in ,palestine74 ,andreae's work had also a direct influence on the ,nova ,solyma of ,samuel ,gott 7#afdh74 ,see the ,introduction of ,f4 ,e4 ,held to his edition of ,christianopolis 7#aiaf74 ,in ,macaria1 another imaginary state of the seventeenth century 7,a description of the famous ,kingdoms of ,macaria1 #afda1 by ,hartlib71 the pursuit of science is not a feature4 ,it is evident that the predominating interest that moved his imagination was different from that which guided ,plato4 ,while ,plato aimed at securing a permanent solid order founded on immutable principles1 the design of ,bacon was to enable his imaginary community to achieve dominion over nature by progressive discoveries4 ,the heads of ,plato's city are metaphysicians1 who regulate the welfare of the people by abstract doctrines established once for all2 while the most important feature in the ,new ,atlantis is the college of scientific investigators1 who are always discovering new truths which may alter the conditions of life4 ,here1 though only in a restricted field1 an idea of progressive improvement1 which is the note of the modern age1 comes in to modify the idea of a fixed order which exclusively prevailed in ancient speculation4 ,on the other hand1 we must not ignore the fact that ,bacon's ideal society is established by the same kind of agency as the ideal societies of ,plato and ,aristotle4 ,it has not developed2 it was framed by the wisdom of an original legislator ,solamona4 ,in this it resembles the other imaginary commonwealths of the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries4 ,the organisation of ,more's ,utopia is fixed initially once for all by the lawgiver ,utopus4 ,the origin of ,campanella's ,civitas ,solis is not expressly stated1 but there can be no doubt that he conceived its institutions as created by the fiat of a single lawgiver4 ,harrington1 in his ,oceana1 argues with ,machiavelli that a commonwealth1 to be well turned1 must be the work of one man1 like a book or a building4 ,footnote3 ,harrington1 ,oceana1 pp4 #gg-h1 #crd ed4 7#agdg74 ,what measure of liberty ,bacon would have granted to the people of his perfect state we cannot say2 his work breaks off before he comes to describe their condition4 ,but we receive the impression that the government he conceived was strictly paternal1 though perhaps less rigorous than the theocratic despotism which ,campanella1 under ,plato's influence1 set up in the ,city of the ,sun4 ,but even ,campanella has this in common with ,more--and we may be sure that ,bacon's conception would have agreed here--that there are no hard-and-fast lines between the classes1 and the welfare and happiness of all the inhabitants is impartially considered1 in contrast with ,plato's scheme in the ,laws1 where the artisans and manual labourers were an inferior caste existing less for their own sake than for the sake of the community as a whole4 ,footnote3 ,this however does not apply to the ,republic1 as is so commonly asserted4 ,see the just criticisms of ,a4 ,a4 ,trever1 ,a ,history of ,greek ,economic ,thought 7,chicago1 #aiaf71 #di sqq4 ,it may finally be pointed out that these three imaginary commonwealths stand together as a group1 marked by a humaner temper than the ancient1 and also by another common characteristic which distinguishes them1 on one hand1 from the ideal states of ,plato and1 on the other1 from modern sketches of desirable societies4 ,plato and ,aristotle conceived their constructions within the geographical limits of ,hellas1 either in the past or in the present4 ,more1 ,bacon1 and ,campanella placed theirs in distant seas1 and this remoteness in space helped to create a certain illusion1 of reality4 ,footnote3 ,civitas ,solis1 p4 #dfa 7ed4 #afbj74 ,expectancy of end of world3 ,ib4 p4 #dee4 ,the modern plan is to project the perfect society into a period of future time4 ,the device of ,more and his successors was suggested by the maritime explorations of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries2 the later method was a result of the rise of the idea of ,progress4 ,footnote3 ,similarly the ideal communistic states imagined by ,euemerus and ,iambulus in the southern seas owed their geographical positions to the popular interest in seafaring in the ,indian ,ocean in the age after ,alexander4 ,one wonders whether ,campanella knew the account of the fictitious journey of ,iambulus to the ,islands of the ,sun1 in ,diodorus ,siculus1 ii4 #ee-fj4 #f4 ,a word or two more may be said about the ,city of the ,sun4 ,campanella was as earnest a believer in the interrogation of nature as ,bacon1 and the place which science and learning hold in his state 7although research is not so prominent as in the ,new ,atlantis71 and the scientific training of all the citizens1 are a capital feature4 ,the progress in inventions1 to which science may look forward1 is suggested4 ,the men of the ,city of the ,sun have already discovered the one art which the world seemed to lack--the art of flying2 and they expect soon to invent ocular instruments which will enable them to see the invisible stars and auricular instruments for hearing the harmony of the spheres4 ,campanella's view of the present conditions and prospects of knowledge is hardly less sanguine than that of ,bacon1 and characteristically he confirms his optimism by astrological data4 ,if you only knew what their astrologers say about the coming age4 ,our times1 they assert1 have more history in a hundred years than the whole world in four thousand4 ,more books have been published in this century than in five thousand years before4 ,they dwell on the wonderful inventions of printing1 of artillery1 and of the use of the magnet1--clear signs of the times--and also instruments for the assembling of the inhabitants of the world into one fold1 and show that these discoveries were conditioned by stellar influences4 ,but ,campanella is not very sure or clear about the future4 ,astrology and theology cause him to hesitate4 ,like ,bacon1 he dreams of a great ,renovation and sees that the conditions are propitious1 but his faith is not secure4 ,the astronomers of his imaginary state scrutinise the stars to discover whether the world will perish or not1 and they believe in the oracular saying of ,jesus that the end will come like a thief in the night4 ,therefore they expect a new age1 and perhaps also the end of the world4 ,the new age of knowledge was about to begin4 ,campanella1 ,bruno1 and ,bacon stand1 as it were1 on the brink of the dividing stream1 tenduntque manus ripae ulterioris amore4 ,,chapter ,,iii4 ,,cartesianism ,if we are to draw any useful lines of demarcation in the continuous flux of history we must neglect anticipations and announcements1 and we need not scruple to say that1 in the realm of knowledge and thought1 modern history begins in the seventeenth century4 ,ubiquitous rebellion against tradition1 a new standard of clear and precise thought which affects even literary expression1 a flow of mathematical and physical discoveries so rapid that ten years added more to the sum of knowledge than all that had been added since the days of ,archimedes1 the introduction of organised co-operation to increase knowledge by the institution of the ,royal ,society at ,london1 the ,academy of ,sciences at ,paris1 ,observatories--realising ,bacon's ,atlantic dream--characterise the opening of a new era4 ,for the ideas with which we are concerned1 the seventeenth century centres round ,descartes1 whom an ,english admirer described as the grand secretary of ,nature4 ,footnote3 ,joseph ,glanvill1 ,vanity of ,dogmatising1 p4 #baa1 #fd ,though his brilliant mathematical discoveries were the sole permanent contribution he made to knowledge1 though his metaphysical and physical systems are only of historical interest1 his genius exercised a more extensive and transforming influence on the future development of thought than any other man of his century4 ,cartesianism affirmed the two positive axioms of the supremacy of reason1 and the invariability of the laws of nature2 and its instrument was a new rigorous analytical method1 which was applicable to history as well as to physical knowledge4 ,the axioms had destructive corollaries4 ,the immutability of the processes of nature collided with the theory of an active ,providence4 ,the supremacy of reason shook the thrones from which authority and tradition had tyrannised over the brains of men4 ,cartesianism was equivalent to a declaration of the ,independence of ,man4 ,it was in the atmosphere of the ,cartesian spirit that a theory of ,progress was to take shape4 #a4 ,let us look back4 ,we saw that all the remarks of philosophers prior to the seventeenth century1 which have been claimed as enunciations of the idea of ,progress1 amount merely to recognitions of the obvious fact that in the course of the past history of men there have been advances and improvements in knowledge and arts1 or that we may look for some improvements in the future4 ,there is not one of them that adumbrates a theory that can be called a theory of ,progress4 ,we have seen several reasons why the idea could not emerge in the ancient or in the ,middle ,ages4 ,nor could it have easily appeared in the period of the ,renaissance4 ,certain preliminary conditions were required1 and these were not fulfilled till the seventeenth century4 ,so long as men believed that the ,greeks and ,romans had attained1 in the best days of their civilisation1 to an intellectual plane which posterity could never hope to reach1 so long as the authority of their thinkers was set up as unimpeachable1 a theory of degeneration held the field1 which excluded a theory of ,progress4 ,it was the work of ,bacon and ,descartes to liberate science and philosophy from the yoke of that authority2 and at the same time1 as we shall see1 the rebellion began to spread to other fields4 ,another condition for the organisation of a theory of ,progress was a frank recognition of the value of mundane life and the subservience of knowledge to human needs4 ,the secular spirit of the ,renaissance prepared the world for this new valuation1 which was formulated by ,bacon1 and has developed into modern utilitarianism4 ,there was yet a third preliminary condition4 ,there can be no certainty that knowledge will continually progress until science has been placed on sure foundations4 ,and science does not rest for us on sure foundations unless the invariability of the laws of nature is admitted4 ,if we do not accept this hypothesis1 if we consider it possible that the uniformities of the natural world may be changed from time to time1 we have no guarantee that science can progress indefinitely4 ,the philosophy of ,descartes established this principle1 which is the palladium of science2 and thus the third preliminary condition was fulfilled4 #b4 ,during the ,renaissance period the authority of the ,greeks and ,romans had been supreme in the realm of thought1 and in the interest of further free development it was necessary that this authority should be weakened4 ,bacon and others had begun the movement to break down this tyranny1 but the influence of ,descartes was weightier and more decisive1 and his attitude was more uncompromising4 ,he had none of ,bacon's reverence for classical literature2 he was proud of having forgotten the ,greek which he had learned as a boy4 ,the inspiration of his work was the idea of breaking sharply and completely with the past1 and constructing a system which borrows nothing from the dead4 ,he looked forward to an advancement of knowledge in the future1 on the basis of his own method and his own discoveries1 ,footnote3 ,cf4 for instance his remarks on medicine1 at the end of the ,discours de la methode4 and he conceived that this intellectual advance would have far-reaching effects on the condition of mankind4 ,the first title he had proposed to give to his ,discourse on ,method was ,the ,project of a ,universal ,science which can elevate our ,nature to its highest degree of ,perfection4 ,he regarded moral and material improvement as depending on philosophy and science4 ,the justification of an independent attitude towards antiquity1 on the ground that the world is now older and more mature1 was becoming a current view4 ,footnote3 ,descartes wrote3 ,non est quod antiquis multum tribuamus propter antiquitatem1 sed nos potius iis seniores dicendi4 ,jam enim senior est mundus quam tune majoremque habemus rerum experientiam4 7,a fragment quoted by ,baillet1 ,vie de ,descartes1 viii4 #aj47 ,passages to the same effect occur in ,malebranche1 ,arnauld1 and ,nicole4 7,see ,bouillier1 ,histoire de la philosophie cartesienne1 i4 #dhb-c47 ,a passage in ,la ,mothe ,le ,vayer's essay ,sur l'opiniatrete in ,orasius ,tubero 7ii4 #bah7 is in point1 if1 as seems probable1 the date of that work is #afcb-cc4 ,some defer to the ancients and allow themselves to be led by them like children2 others hold that the ancients lived in the youth of the world1 and it is those who live to-day who are really the ancients1 and consequently ought to carry most weight4 ,see ,rigault1 ,histoire de la querelle des ,anciens et des ,modernes1 p4 #eb4 ,the passage of ,pascal occurs in the ,fragment d'un traite du vide1 not published till #aggi 7now included in the ,pensees1 ,premiere ,partie1 ,art4 ,i71 and therefore without influence on the origination of the theory of progress4 ,it has been pointed out that ,guillaume ,colletet had in #afcf expressed a similar view 7,brunetiere1 ,etudes critiques1 v4 #ahe-f74 ,descartes expressed it like ,bacon1 and it was taken up and repeated by many whom ,descartes influenced4 ,pascal1 who till #afed was a man of science and a convert to ,cartesian ideas1 put it in a striking way4 ,the whole sequence of men 7he says7 during so many centuries should be considered as a single man1 continually existing and continually learning4 ,at each stage of his life this universal man profited by the knowledge he had acquired in the preceding stages1 and he is now in his old age4 ,this is a fuller1 and probably an independent1 development of the comparison of the race to an individual which we found in ,bacon4 ,it occurs in a fragment which remained unpublished for more than a hundred years1 and is often quoted as a recognition1 not of a general progress of man1 but of a progress in human knowledge4 ,to those who reproached ,descartes with disrespect towards ancient thinkers he might have replied that1 in repudiating their authority1 he was really paying them the compliment of imitation and acting far more in their own spirit than those who slavishly followed them4 ,pascal saw this point4 ,what can be more unjust1 he wrote1 than to treat our ancients with greater consideration than they showed towards their own predecessors1 and to have for them this incredible respect which they deserve from us only because they entertained no such regard for those who had the same advantage 7of antiquity7 over them8 ,footnote3 ,pensees1 ib4 ,at the same time ,pascal recognised that we are indebted to the ancients for our very superiority to them in the extent of our knowledge4 ,they reached a certain point1 and the slightest effort enables us to mount higher2 so that we find ourselves on a loftier plane with less trouble and less glory4 ,the attitude of ,descartes was very different4 ,aspiring to begin ab integro and reform the foundations of knowledge1 he ignored or made little of what had been achieved in the past4 ,he attempted to cut the threads of continuity as with the shears of ,atropos4 ,this illusion ,footnote3 ,he may be reproached himself with scholasticism in his metaphysical reasoning4 hindered him from stating a doctrine of the progress of knowledge as otherwise he might have done4 ,for any such doctrine must take account of the past as well as of the future4 ,but a theory of progress was to grow out of his philosophy1 though he did not construct it4 ,it was to be developed by men who were imbued with the ,cartesian spirit4 #c4 ,the theological world in ,france was at first divided on the question whether the system of ,descartes could be reconciled with orthodoxy or not4 ,the ,jesuits said no1 the ,fathers of the ,oratory said yes4 ,the ,jansenists of ,port ,royal were enthusiastic ,cartesians4 ,yet it was probably the influence of the great spiritual force of ,jansenism that did most to check the immediate spread of ,cartesian ideas4 ,it was preponderant in ,france for fifty years4 ,the date of the ,discourse of ,method is #afcg4 ,the ,augustinus of ,jansenius was published in #afdj1 and in #afdc ,arnauld's ,frequent ,communion made ,jansenism a popular power4 ,the ,jansenist movement was in ,france in some measure what the ,puritan movement was in ,england1 and it caught hold of serious minds in much the same way4 ,the ,jesuits had undertaken the task of making ,christianity easy1 of finding a compromise between worldliness and religion1 and they flooded the world with a casuistic literature designed for this purpose4 ,ex opinionum varietate jugum ,christi suavius deportatur4 ,the doctrine of ,jansenius was directed against this corruption of faith and morals4 ,he maintained that there can be no compromise with the world2 that casuistry is incompatible with morality2 that man is naturally corrupt2 and that in his most virtuous acts some corruption is present4 ,now the significance of these two forces--the stern ideal of the ,jansenists and the casuistry of the ,jesuit teachers--is that they both attempted to meet1 by opposed methods1 the wave of libertine thought and conduct which is a noticeable feature in the history of ,french society from the reign of ,henry ,,iv4 to that of ,louis ,,xv4 ,footnote3 ,for the prevalence of libertine thought in ,france at the beginning of the seventeenth century see the work of the ,pere ,garasse1 ,la ,doctrine curieuse des beaux esprits de ce temps ou pretendus tels1 etc4 7#afbc74 ,cp4 also ,brunetiere's illuminating study1 ,jansenistes et ,cartesiens in ,etudes critiques1 #dme serie4 ,this libertinism had its philosophy1 a sort of philosophy of nature1 of which the most brilliant exponents were ,rabelais and ,moliere4 ,the maxim1 ,be true to nature1 was evidently opposed sharply to the principles of the ,christian religion1 and it was associated with sceptical views which prevailed widely in ,france from the early years of the seventeenth century4 ,the ,jesuits sought to make terms by saying virtually3 ,our religious principles and your philosophy of nature are not after all so incompatible in practice4 ,when it comes to the application of principles1 opinions differ4 ,theology is as elastic as you like4 ,do not abandon your religion on the ground that her yoke is hard4 ,jansenius and his followers1 on the other hand1 fought uncompromisingly with the licentious spirit of the time1 maintaining the austerest dogmas and denouncing any compromise or condescension4 ,and their doctrine had a wonderful success1 and penetrated everywhere4 ,few of the great literary men of the reign of ,louis ,,xiv4 escaped it4 ,its influence can be traced in the ,maximes of ,la ,rochefoucauld and the ,caracteres of ,la ,bruyere4 ,it was through its influence that ,moliere found it difficult to get some of his plays staged4 ,it explains the fact that the court of ,louis ,,xiv41 however corrupt1 was decorous compared with the courts of ,henry ,,iv4 and ,louis ,,xv42 a severe standard was set up1 if it was not observed4 ,the genius of ,pascal made the fortunes of ,jansenism4 ,he outlived his ,cartesianism and became its most influential spokesman4 ,his ,provinciales 7#afef7 rendered abstruse questions of theology more or less intelligible1 and invited the general public to pronounce an opinion on them4 ,his lucid exposition interested every one in the abstruse problem1 ,is man's freedom such as not to render grace superfluous8 ,but ,pascal perceived that casuistry was not the only enemy that menaced the true spirit of religion for which ,jansenism stood4 ,he came to realise that ,cartesianism1 to which he was at first drawn1 was profoundly opposed to the fundamental views of ,christianity4 ,his ,pensees are the fragments of a work which he designed in defence of religion1 and it is easy to see that this defence was to be specially directed against the ideas of ,descartes4 ,pascal was perfectly right about the ,cartesian conception of the ,universe1 though ,descartes might pretend to mitigate its tendencies1 and his fervent disciple1 ,malebranche1 might attempt to prove that it was more or less reconcilable with orthodox doctrine4 ,we need not trouble about the special metaphysical tenets of ,descartes4 ,the two axioms which he launched upon the world--the supremacy of reason1 and the invariability of natural laws--struck directly at the foundations of orthodoxy4 ,pascal was attacking ,cartesianism when he made his memorable attempt to discredit the authority of reason1 by showing that it is feeble and deceptive4 ,it was a natural consequence of his changed attitude that he should speak 7in the ,pensees7 in a much less confident tone about the march of science than he had spoken in the passage which ,i quoted above4 ,and it was natural that he should be pessimistic about social improvement1 and that1 keeping his eyes fixed on his central fact that ,christianity is the goal of history1 he should take only a slight and subsidiary interest in amelioration4 ,the preponderant influence of ,jansenism only began to wane during the last twenty years of the seventeenth century1 and till then it seems to have been successful in counteracting the diffusion of the ,cartesian ideas4 ,cartesianism begins to become active and powerful when ,jansenism is beginning to decline4 ,and it is just then that the idea of ,progress begins definitely to emerge4 ,the atmosphere in ,france was favourable for its reception4 #d4 ,the ,cartesian mechanical theory of the world and the doctrine of invariable law1 carried to a logical conclusion1 excluded the doctrine of ,providence4 ,this doctrine was already in serious danger4 ,perhaps no article of faith was more insistently attacked by sceptics in the seventeenth century1 and none was more vital4 ,the undermining of the theory of ,providence is very intimately connected with our subject2 for it was just the theory of an active ,providence that the theory of ,progress was to replace2 and it was not till men felt independent of ,providence that they could organise a theory of ,progress4 ,bossuet was convinced that the question of ,providence was the most serious and pressing among all the questions of the day that were at issue between orthodox and heretical thinkers4 ,brunetiere1 his fervent admirer1 has named him the theologian of ,providence1 and has shown that in all his writings this doctrine is a leading note4 ,it is sounded in his early sermons in the fifties1 and it is the theme of his most ambitious work1 the ,discourse on ,universal ,history1 which appeared in #afha4 ,footnote2 ,it has been shown that on one hand he controverts ,spinoza's ,tractatus theologico-politicus1 and on the other the dangerous methods of ,richard ,simon1 one of the precursors of modern biblical criticism4 ,brunetiere1 op4 cit4 #gd-he4 ,this book1 which has received high praise from those who most heartily dissent from its conclusions1 is in its main issue a restatement of the view of history which ,augustine had worked out in his memorable book4 ,the whole course of human experience has been guided by ,providence for the sake of the ,church2 that is1 for the sake of the ,church to which ,bossuet belonged4 ,regarded as a philosophy of history the ,discourse may seem little more than the theory of the ,de ,civitate ,dei brought up to date2 but this is its least important aspect4 ,we shall fail to understand it unless we recognise that it was a pragmatical1 opportune work1 designed for the needs of the time1 and with express references to current tendencies of thought4 ,one main motive of ,bossuet in his lifelong concern for ,providence was his conviction that the doctrine was the most powerful check on immorality1 and that to deny it was to remove the strongest restraint on the evil side of human nature4 ,there is no doubt that the free-living people of the time welcomed the arguments which called ,providence in question1 and ,bossuet believed that to champion ,providence was the most efficient means of opposing the libertine tendencies of his day4 ,nothing1 he declared in one of his sermons 7#affb71 has appeared more insufferable to the arrogance of libertines than to see themselves continually under the observation of this ever-watchful eye of ,providence4 ,they have felt it as an importunate compulsion to recognise that there is in ,heaven a superior force which governs all our movements and chastises our loose actions with a severe authority4 ,they have wished to shake off the yoke of this ,providence1 in order to maintain1 in independence1 an unteachable liberty which moves them to live at their own fancy1 without fear1 discipline1 or restraint4 ,passage from ,bossuet1 quoted by ,brunetiere1 op4 cit4 #eh4 ,bossuet was thus working in the same cause as the ,jansenists4 ,he had himself come under the influence of ,descartes1 whose work he always regarded with the deepest respect4 ,the cautiousness of the master had done much to disguise the insidious dangers of his thought1 and it was in the hands of those disciples who developed his system and sought to reconcile it at all points with orthodoxy that his ideas displayed their true nature4 ,malebranche's philosophy revealed the incompatibility of ,providence--in the ordinary acceptation--with immutable natural laws4 ,if the ,deity acts upon the world1 as ,malebranche maintained1 only by means of general laws1 ,his freedom is abolished1 ,his omnipotence is endangered1 ,he is subject to a sort of fatality4 ,what will become of the ,christian belief in the value of prayers1 if ,god cannot adapt or modify1 on any given occasion1 the general order of nature to the needs of human beings8 ,these are some of the arguments which we find in a treatise composed by ,fenelon1 with the assistance of ,bossuet1 to demonstrate that the doctrine of ,malebranche is inconsistent with piety and orthodox religion4 ,they were right4 ,cartesianism was too strong a wine to be decanted into old bottles4 ,footnote3 ,fenelon's ,refutation of ,malebranche's ,traite de la nature et de la grace was not published till #ahbj4 ,this work of ,malebranche also provoked a controversy with ,arnauld1 who urged similar arguments4 ,malebranche's doctrine of what he calls divine ,providence was closely connected with his philosophical optimism4 ,it enabled him to maintain the perfection of the universe4 ,admitting the obvious truth that the world exhibits many imperfections1 and allowing that the ,creator could have produced a better result if he had employed other means1 ,malebranche argued that1 in judging the world1 we must take into account not only the result but the methods by which it has been produced4 ,it is the best world1 he asserts1 that could be framed by general and simple methods2 and general and simple methods are the most perfect1 and alone worthy of the ,creator4 ,therefore1 if we take the methods and the result together1 a more perfect world is impossible4 ,the argument was ingenious1 though full of assumptions1 but it was one which could only satisfy a philosopher4 ,it is little consolation to creatures suffering from the actual imperfections of the system into which they are born to be told that the world might have been free from those defects1 only in that case they would not have the satisfaction of knowing that it was created and conducted on theoretically superior principles4 ,though ,malebranche's conception was only a metaphysical theory1 metaphysical theories have usually their pragmatic aspects2 and the theory that the universe is as perfect as it could be marks a stage in the growth of intellectual optimism which we can trace from the sixteenth century4 ,it was a view which could appeal to the educated public in ,france1 for it harmonised with the general spirit of self-complacency and hopefulness which prevailed among the higher classes of society in the reign of ,louis ,,xiv4 ,for them the conditions of life under the new despotism had become far more agreeable than in previous ages1 and it was in a spirit of optimism that they devoted themselves to the enjoyment of luxury and elegance4 ,the experience of what the royal authority could achieve encouraged men to imagine that one enlightened will1 with a centralised administration at its command1 might accomplish endless improvements in civilisation4 ,there was no age had ever been more glorious1 no age more agreeable to live in4 ,the world had begun to abandon the theory of corruption1 degeneration1 and decay4 ,some years later the optimistic theory of the perfection of the universe found an abler exponent in ,leibnitz1 whom ,diderot calls the father of optimism4 ,footnote3 ,see particularly ,monadologie1 ad fin4 published posthumously in ,german #agbj1 in ,latin #agbh2 ,theodicee1 ,section #cda 7#agaj72 and the paper1 ,de rerum originatione radicali1 written in #afig1 but not published till #ahdj 7,opera philosophica1 ed4 ,erdmann1 p4 #adg sqq74 ,the ,creator1 before ,he acted1 had considered all possible worlds1 and had chosen the best4 ,he might have chosen one in which humanity would have been better and happier1 but that would not have been the best possible1 for ,he had to consider the interests of the whole universe1 of which the earth with humanity is only an insignificant part4 ,the evils and imperfections of our small world are negligible in comparison with the happiness and perfection of the whole cosmos4 ,leibnitz1 whose theory is deduced from the abstract proposition that the ,creator is perfect1 does not say that now or at any given moment the universe is as perfect as it could be2 its merit lies in its potentialities2 it will develop towards perfection throughout infinite time4 ,the optimism of ,leibnitz therefore concerns the universe as a whole1 not the earth1 and would obviously be quite consistent with a pessimistic view of the destinies of humanity4 ,he does indeed believe that it would be impossible to improve the universal order1 not only for the whole1 but for ourselves in particular1 and incidentally he notes the possibility that in the course of time the human race may reach a greater perfection than we can imagine at present4 ,but the significance of his speculation and that of ,malebranche lies in the fact that the old theories of degeneration are definitely abandoned4 ,,chapter ,,iv4 ,,the ,,doctrine ,,of ,,degeneration3 ,,the ,,ancients ,,and ,,moderns #a4 ,outside the circle of systematic thinkers the prevalent theory of degeneration was being challenged early in the seventeenth century4 ,the challenge led to a literary war1 which was waged for about a hundred years in ,france and ,england2 over the comparative merits of the ancients and the moderns4 ,it was in the matter of literature1 and especially poetry1 that the quarrel was most acrimonious1 and that the interest of the public was most keenly aroused1 but the ablest disputants extended the debate to the general field of knowledge4 ,the quarrel of the ,ancients and ,moderns used commonly to be dismissed as a curious and rather ridiculous episode in the history of literature4 ,footnote3 ,the best and fullest work on the subject is ,rigault's ,histoire de la querelle des ,anciens et des ,modernes 7#ahef74 ,auguste ,comte was1 ,i think1 one of the first to call attention to some of its wider bearings4 ,the quarrel1 indeed1 has considerable significance in the history of ideas4 ,it was part of the rebellion against the intellectual yoke of the ,renaissance2 the cause of the ,moderns1 who were the aggressors1 represented the liberation of criticism from the authority of the dead2 and1 notwithstanding the perversities of taste of which they were guilty1 their polemic1 even on the purely literary side1 was distinctly important1 as ,m4 ,brunetiere has convincingly shown1 ,footnote3 ,see his ,l'evolution des genres dans l'histoire de la litterature4 in the development of ,french criticism4 ,but the form in which the critical questions were raised forced the debate to touch upon a problem of greater moment4 ,the question1 ,can the men of to-day contend on equal terms with the illustrious ancients1 or are they intellectually inferior8 implied the larger issue1 ,has nature exhausted her powers2 is she no longer capable of producing men equal in brains and vigour to those whom she once produced2 is humanity played out1 or are her forces permanent and inexhaustible8 ,the assertion of the permanence of the powers of nature by the champions of the ,moderns was the direct contradiction of the theory of degeneration1 and they undoubtedly contributed much towards bringing that theory into discredit4 ,when we grasp this it will not be surprising to find that the first clear assertions of a doctrine of progress in knowledge were provoked by the controversy about the ,ancients and ,moderns4 ,although the great scene of the controversy was ,france1 the question had been expressly raised by an ,italian1 no less a person than ,alessandro ,tassoni1 the accomplished author of that famous ironical poem1 ,la ,secchia rapita1 which caricatured the epic poets of his day4 ,he was bent on exposing the prejudices of his time and uttering new doctrine1 and he created great scandal in ,italy by his attacks on ,petrarch1 as well as on ,homer and ,aristotle4 ,the earliest comparison of the merits of the ancients and the moderns will be found in a volume of ,miscellaneous ,thoughts which he published in #afbj4 ,footnote3 ,dieci libri di pensieri diversi 7,carpi1 #afbj74 ,the first nine books had appeared in #afab4 ,the tenth contains the comparison4 ,rigault was the first to connect this work with the history of the controversy4 ,he speaks of the question as a matter of current dispute1 ,footnote3 ,it was incidental to the controversy which arose over the merits of ,tasso's ,jerusalem ,delivered4 ,that the subject had been discussed long before may be inferred from a remark of ,estienne in his ,apology for ,herodotus1 that while some of his contemporaries carry their admiration of antiquity to the point of superstition1 others depreciate and trample it underfoot4 on which he proposes to give an impartial decision by instituting a comprehensive comparison in all fields1 theoretical1 imaginative1 and practical4 ,he begins by criticising the a priori argument that1 as arts are brought to perfection by experience and long labour1 the modern age must necessarily have the advantage4 ,this reasoning1 he says1 is unsound1 because the same arts and studies are not always uninterruptedly pursued by the most powerful intellects1 but pass into inferior hands1 and so decline or are even extinguished1 as was the case in ,italy in the decrepitude of the ,roman ,empire1 when for many centuries the arts fell below mediocrity4 ,or1 to phrase it otherwise1 the argument would be admissible only if there were no breaches of continuity4 ,footnote3 ,tassoni argues that a decline in all pursuits is inevitable when a certain point of excellence has been reached1 quoting ,velleius ,paterculus 7i4 #ag73 difficilisque in perfecto mora est naturaliterque quod procedere non potest recedit4 ,in drawing his comparison ,tassoni seeks to make good his claim that he is not an advocate4 ,but while he awards superiority here and there to the ancients1 the moderns on the whole have much the best of it4 ,he takes a wide enough survey1 including the material side of civilisation1 even costume1 in contrast with some of the later controversialists1 who narrowed the field of debate to literature and art4 ,tassoni's ,thoughts were translated into ,french1 and the book was probably known to ,boisrobert1 a dramatist who is chiefly remembered for the part he took in founding the ,academie francaise4 ,he delivered a discourse before that body immediately after its institution 7,february #bf1 #afce71 in which he made a violent and apparently scurrilous attack on ,homer4 ,this discourse kindled the controversy in ,france1 and even struck a characteristic note4 ,homer--already severely handled by ,tassoni--was to be the special target for the arrows of the ,moderns1 who felt that1 if they could succeed in discrediting him1 their cause would be won4 ,thus the gauntlet was flung--and it is important to note this--before the appearance of the ,discourse of ,method 7#afcg72 but the influence of ,descartes made itself felt throughout the controversy1 and the most prominent moderns were men who had assimilated ,cartesian ideas4 ,this seems to be true even of ,desmarets de ,saint ,sorlin1 who1 a good many years after the discourse of ,boisrobert1 opened the campaign4 ,saint ,sorlin had become a fanatical ,christian2 that was one reason for hating the ancients4 ,footnote3 ,for the views of ,saint ,sorlin see the ,preface to his ,clovis and his ,traite pour juger des poefes grecs1 latins1 et francais1 chap4 iv4 7#afgj74 ,cp4 ,rigault1 ,hist4 de la querelle1 p4 #ajf4 ,the polemic of ,saint ,sorlin extended over about five years 7#affi-gc74 ,he was also1 like ,boisrobert1 a bad poet2 that was another4 ,his thesis was that the history of ,christianity offered subjects far more inspiring to a poet than those which had been treated by ,homer and ,sophocles1 and that ,christian poetry must bear off the palm from pagan4 ,his own ,clovis and ,mary ,magdalene or the ,triumph of ,grace were the demonstration of ,homer's defeat4 ,few have ever heard of these productions2 how many have read them8 ,curiously1 about the same time an epic was being composed in ,england which might have given to the foolish contentions of ,saint ,sorlin some illusory plausibility4 ,but the literary dispute does not concern us here4 ,what does concern us is that ,saint ,sorlin was aware of the wider aspects of the question1 though he was not seriously interested in them4 ,antiquity1 he says1 was not so happy or so learned or so rich or so stately as the modern age1 which is really the mature old age1 and as it were the autumn of the world1 possessing the fruits and the spoils of all the past centuries1 with the power to judge of the inventions1 experiences1 and errors of predecessors1 and to profit by all that4 ,the ancient world was a spring which had only a few flowers4 ,nature indeed1 in all ages1 produces perfect works but it is not so with the creations of man1 which require correction2 and the men who live latest must excel in happiness and knowledge4 ,here we have both the assertion of the permanence of the forces of nature and the idea1 already expressed by ,bacon and others1 that the modern age has advantages over antiquity comparable to those of old age over childhood4 #b4 ,how seriously the question between the ,moderns and the ,ancients--on whose behalf ,boileau had come forward and crossed swords with ,saint ,sorlin--was taken is shown by the fact that ,saint ,sorlin1 before his death1 solemnly bequeathed the championship of the ,moderns to a younger man1 ,charles ,perrault4 ,we shall see how he fulfilled the trust4 ,it is illustrated too by a book which appeared in the seventies1 ,les ,entretiens d',ariste et ,eugene1 by ,bouhours1 a mundane and popular ,jesuit ,father4 ,in one of these dialogues the question is raised1 but with a curious caution and evasiveness1 which suggests that the author was afraid to commit himself2 he did not wish to make enemies4 ,footnote3 ,rigault notes that he makes one contribution to the subject1 the idea that the torch of civilisation has passed from country to country1 in different ages1 e4g4 from ,greece to ,rome1 and recently from ,italy to ,france4 ,in the last century the ,italians were first in doctrine and politesse4 ,the present century is for ,france what the last was for ,italy3 ,we have all the esprit and all the science1 all other countries are barbarous in comparison 7p4 #bci1 ed4 #aghb1 ,amsterdam74 ,but1 as we shall see1 he had been anticipated by ,hakewill1 whose work was unknown to ,rigault4 ,the general atmosphere in ,france1 in the reign of ,louis ,,xiv41 was propitious to the cause of the ,moderns4 ,men felt that it was a great age1 comparable to the age of ,augustus1 and few would have preferred to have lived at any other time4 ,their literary artists1 ,corneille1 and then ,racine and ,moliere1 appealed so strongly to their taste that they could not assign to them any rank but the first4 ,they were impatient of the claims to unattainable excellence advanced for the ,greeks and ,romans4 ,the ancients1 said ,moliere1 are the ancients1 we are the people of to-day4 ,this might be the motto of ,descartes1 and it probably expressed a very general feeling4 ,it was in #afhg that ,charles ,perrault--who is better remembered for his collection of fairy-tales than for the leading role which he played in this controversy--published his poem on ,the ,age of ,louis the ,great4 ,the enlightenment of the present age surpasses that of antiquity1--this is the theme4 ,la docte ,antiquite dans toute sa duree ,a l'egal de nos jours ne fut point eclairee4 ,perrault adopts a more polite attitude to la belle antiquite than ,saint ,sorlin1 but his criticism is more insidious4 ,greek and ,roman men of genius1 he suggests1 were all very well in their own times1 and might be considered divine by our ancestors4 ,but nowadays ,plato is rather tiresome2 and the inimitable ,homer would have written a much better epic if he had lived in the reign of ,louis the ,great4 ,the important passage1 however1 in the poem is that in which the permanent power of nature to produce men of equal talent in every age is affirmed4 ,a former les esprits comme a former les corps ,la ,nature en tout temps fait les mesmes efforts2 ,son etre est immuable1 et cette force aisee ,dont elle produit tout ne s'est point epuisee2 44444 ,de cette mesme main les forces infinies ,produisent en tout temps de semblables genies4 ,the ,age of ,louis the ,great was a brief declaration of faith4 ,perrault followed it up by a comprehensive work1 his ,comparison of the ,ancients and the ,moderns 7,parallele des ,anciens et des ,modernes71 which appeared in four parts during the following years 7#afhh-afif74 ,art1 eloquence1 poetry the sciences1 and their practical applications are all discussed at length2 and the discussion is thrown into the form of conversations between an enthusiastic champion of the modern age1 who conducts the debate1 and a devotee of antiquity1 who finds it difficult not to admit the arguments of his opponent1 yet obstinately persists in his own views4 ,perrault bases his thesis on those general considerations which we have met incidentally in earlier writers1 and which were now almost commonplaces among those who paid any attention to the matter4 ,knowledge advances with time and experience2 perfection is not necessarily associated with antiquity2 the latest comers have inherited from their predecessors and added new acquisitions of their own4 ,but ,perrault has thought out the subject methodically1 and he draws conclusions which have only to be extended to amount to a definite theory of the progress of knowledge4 ,a particular difficulty had done much to hinder a general admission of progressive improvement in the past4 ,the proposition that the posterior is better and the late comers have the advantage seemed to be incompatible with an obvious historical fact4 ,we are superior to the men of the dark ages in knowledge and arts4 ,granted4 ,but will you say that the men of the tenth century were superior to the ,greeks and ,romans8 ,to this question--on which ,tassoni had already touched--,perrault replies3 ,certainly not4 ,there are breaches of continuity4 ,the sciences and arts are like rivers1 which flow for part of their course underground1 and then1 finding an opening1 spring forth as abundant as when they plunged beneath the earth4 ,long wars1 for instance1 may force peoples to neglect studies and throw all their vigour into the more urgent needs of self-preservation2 a period of ignorance may ensue but with peace and felicity knowledge and inventions will begin again and make further advances4 ,footnote3 ,the passages in ,perrault's ,parallele specially referred to in the text will be found in vol4 i4 pp4 #ce-g1 #fj-fa1 #fg1 #bca-c4 ,it is to be observed that he does not1 claim any superiority in talents or brain power for the moderns4 ,on the contrary1 he takes his stand on the principle which he had asserted in the ,age of ,louis the ,great1 that nature is immutable4 ,she still produces as great men as ever1 but she does not produce greater4 ,the lions of the deserts of ,africa in our days do not differ in fierceness from those the days of ,alexander the ,great1 and the best men of all times are equal in vigour4 ,it is their work and productions that are unequal1 and1 given equally favourable conditions1 the latest must be the best4 ,for science and the arts depend upon the accumulation of knowledge1 and knowledge necessarily increases as time goes on4 ,but could this argument be applied to poetry and literary art1 the field of battle in which the belligerents1 including ,perrault himself1 were most deeply interested8 ,it might prove that the modern age was capable of producing poets and men of letter no less excellent than the ancient masters1 but did it prove that their works must be superior8 ,the objection did not escape ,perrault1 and he answers it ingeniously4 ,it is the function of poetry and eloquence to please the human heart1 and in order to please it we must know it4 ,is it easier to penetrate the secrets of the human heart than the secrets of nature1 or will it take less time8 ,we are always making new discoveries about its passions and desires4 ,to take only the tragedies of ,corneille you will find there finer and more delicate reflections on ambition1 vengeance1 and jealousy than in all the books of antiquity4 ,at the close of his ,parallel1 however1 ,perrault1 while he declares the general superiority of the moderns1 makes a reservation in regard to poetry and eloquence for the sake of peace4 ,the discussion of ,perrault falls far short of embodying a full idea of ,progress4 ,not only is he exclusively concerned with progress in knowledge--though he implies1 indeed1 without developing1 the doctrine that happiness depends on knowledge--but he has no eyes for the future1 and no interest in it4 ,he is so impressed with the advance of knowledge in the recent past that he is almost incapable of imagining further progression4 ,read the journals of ,france and ,england1 he says1 and glance at the publications of the ,academies of these great kingdoms1 and you will be convinced that within the last twenty or thirty years more discoveries have been made in natural science than throughout the period of learned antiquity4 ,i own that ,i consider myself fortunate to know the happiness we enjoy2 it is a great pleasure to survey all the past ages in which ,i can see the birth and the progress of all things1 but nothing which has not received a new increase and lustre in our own times4 ,our age has1 in some sort1 arrived at the summit of perfection4 ,and since for some years the rate of the progress is much slower and appears almost insensible--as the days seem to cease lengthening when the solstice is near--it is pleasant to think that probably there are not many things for which we need envy future generations4 ,indifference to the future1 or even a certain scepticism about it1 is the note of this passage1 and accords with the view that the world has reached its old age4 ,the idea of the progress of knowledge1 which ,perrault expounds1 is still incomplete4 #c4 ,independently of this development in ,france1 the doctrine of degeneration had been attacked1 and the comparison of the ancients with the moderns incidentally raised1 in ,england4 ,a divine named ,george ,hakewill published in #afbg a folio of six hundred pages to confute the common error touching ,nature's perpetual and universal decay4 ,footnote3 ,an ,apologie or ,declaration of the ,power and ,providence of ,god in the ,government of the ,world1 consisting in an ,examination and ,censure of the common ,errour1 etc4 7#afbg1 #afcj1 #afce74 ,he and his pedantic book1 which breathes the atmosphere of the sixteenth century1 are completely forgotten2 and though it ran to three editions1 it can hardly have attracted the attention of many except theologians4 ,the writer's object is to prove that the power and providence of ,god in the government of the world are not consistent with the current view that the physical universe1 the heavens and the elements1 are undergoing a process of decay1 and that man is degenerating physically1 mentally1 and morally4 ,his arguments in general are futile as well as tedious4 ,but he has profited by reading ,bodin and ,bacon1 whose ideas1 it would appear1 were already agitating theological minds4 ,a comparison between the ancients and the moderns arises in a general refutation of the doctrine of decay1 as naturally as the question of the stability of the powers of nature arises in a comparison between the ancients and moderns4 ,hakewill protests against excessive admiration of antiquity1 just because it encourages the opinion of the world's decay4 ,he gives his argument a much wider scope than the ,french controversialists4 ,for him the field of debate includes not only science1 arts1 and literature1 but physical qualities and morals4 ,he seeks to show that mentally and physically there has been no decay1 and that the morals of modern ,christendom are immensely superior to those of pagan times4 ,there has been social progress1 due to ,christianity2 and there has been an advance in arts and knowledge4 ,multa dies uariusque labor mutabilis aeui ,rettulit in melius4 ,hakewill1 like ,tassoni1 surveys all the arts and sciences1 and concludes that the moderns are equal to the ancients in poetry1 and in almost all other things excel them4 ,footnote3 ,among modern poets equal to the ancients1 ,hakewill signalises ,sir ,philip ,sidney1 ,spenser1 ,marot1 ,ronsard1 ,ariosto1 ,tasso 7,book iii4 chap4 #h1 ,section #c74 ,one of the arguments which he urges against the theory of degeneration is pragmatic--its paralysing effect on human energy4 ,the opinion of the world's universal decay quails the hopes and blunts the edge of men's endeavours4 ,and the effort to improve the world1 he implies1 is a duty we owe to posterity4 ,let not then the vain shadows of the world's fatal decay keep us either from looking backward to the imitation of our noble predecessors or forward in providing for posterity1 but as our predecessors worthily provided1 for us1 so let our posterity bless us in providing for them1 it being still as uncertain to us what generations are still to ensue1 as it was to our predecessors in their ages4 ,we note the suggestion that history may be conceived as a sequence of improvements in civilisation1 but we note also that ,hakewill here is faced by the obstacle which ,christian theology offered to the logical expansion of the idea4 ,it is uncertain what generations are still to ensue4 ,roger ,bacon stood before the same dead wall4 ,hakewill thinks that he is living in the last age of the world2 but how long it shall last is a question which cannot be resolved1 it being one of those secrets which the ,almighty hath locked up in the cabinet of ,his own counsel4 ,yet he consoles himself and his readers with a consideration which suggests that the end is not yet very near4 ,footnote3 ,see ,book i4 chap4 #b1 ,section #d1 p4 #bd4 ,it is agreed upon all sides by ,divines that at least two signs forerunning the world's end remain unaccomplished--the subversion of ,rome and the conversion of the ,jews4 ,and when they shall be accomplished ,god only knows1 as yet in man's judgment there being little appearance of the one or the other4 ,it was well to be assured that nature is not decaying or man degenerating4 ,but was the doctrine that the end of the world does not depend upon the law of nature1 and that the growth of human civilisation may be cut off at any moment by a fiat of the ,deity1 less calculated to quail the hopes and blunt the edge of men's endeavours8 ,hakewill asserted with confidence that the universe will be suddenly wrecked by fire4 ,una dies dabit exitio4 ,was the prospect of an arrest which might come the day after to-morrow likely to induce men to exert themselves to make provision for posterity8 ,the significance of ,hakewill lies in the fact that he made the current theory of degeneration1 which stood in the way of all possible theories of progress1 the object of a special inquiry4 ,and his book illustrates the close connection between that theory and the dispute over the ,ancients and ,moderns4 ,it cannot be said that he has added anything valuable to what may be found in ,bodin and ,bacon on the development of civilisation4 ,the general synthesis of history which he attempts is equivalent to theirs4 ,he describes the history of knowledge and arts1 and all things besides1 as exhibiting a kind of circular progress1 by which he means that they have a birth1 growth1 nourishing1 failing and fading1 and then within a while after a resurrection and reflourishing4 ,footnote3 ,book iii4 chap4 #f1 ,section i1 p4 #bei4 ,in this method of progress the lamp of learning passed from one people to another4 ,it passed from the ,orientals 7,chaldeans and ,egyptians7 to the ,greeks2 when it was nearly extinguished in ,greece it began to shine afresh among the ,romans2 and having been put out by the barbarians for the space of a thousand years it was relit by ,petrarch and his contemporaries4 ,in stating this view of circular progress1 ,hakewill comes perilously near to the doctrine of ,ricorsi or ,returns which had been severely denounced by ,bacon4 ,in one point indeed ,hakewill goes far beyond ,bodin4 ,it was suggested1 as we saw1 by the ,french thinker that in some respects the modern age is superior in conduct and morals to antiquity1 but he said little on the matter4 ,hakewill develops the suggestion at great length into a severe and partial impeachment of ancient manners and morals4 ,unjust and unconvincing though his arguments are1 and inspired by theological motives1 his thesis nevertheless deserves to be noted as an assertion of the progress of man in social morality4 ,bacon1 and the thinkers of the seventeenth century generally1 confined their views of progress in the past to the intellectual field4 ,hakewill1 though he overshot the mark and said nothing actually worth remembering1 nevertheless anticipated the larger problem of social progress which was to come to the front in the eighteenth century4 #d4 ,during the forty years that followed the appearance of ,hakewill's book much had happened in the world of ideas1 and when we take up ,glanvill's ,plus ultra1 or the ,progress and ,advancement of ,knowledge since the days of ,aristotle1 ,footnote3 ,the title is evidently suggested by a passage in ,bacon quoted above1 p4 #ee4 we breathe a different atmosphere4 ,it was published in #affh1 and its purpose was to defend the recently founded ,royal ,society which was attacked on the ground that it was inimical to the interests of religion and sound learning4 ,for the ,aristotelian tradition was still strongly entrenched in the ,english ,church and ,universities1 notwithstanding the influence of ,bacon2 and the ,royal ,society1 which realised the romantic model of ,bacon's society of experimenters1 repudiated the scholastic principles and methods associated with ,aristotle's name4 ,glanvill was one of those latitudinarian clergymen1 so common in the ,anglican ,church in the seventeenth century1 who were convinced that religious faith must accord with reason1 and were unwilling to abate in its favour any of reason's claims4 ,he was under the influence of ,bacon1 ,descartes1 and the ,cambridge ,platonists1 and no one was more enthusiastic than he in following the new scientific discoveries of his time4 ,unfortunately for his reputation he had a weak side4 ,enlightened though he was1 he was a firm believer in witchcraft1 and he is chiefly remembered not as an admirer of ,descartes and ,bacon1 and a champion of the ,royal ,society1 but as the author of ,saducismus ,triumphatus1 a monument of superstition1 which probably contributed to check the gradual growth of disbelief in witches and apparitions4 ,his ,plus ultra is a review of modern improvements of useful knowledge4 ,it is confined to mathematics and science1 in accordance with its purpose of justifying the ,royal ,society2 and the discoveries of the past sixty years enable the author to present a far more imposing picture of modern scientific progress than was possible for ,bodin or ,bacon4 ,footnote3 ,bacon indeed could have made out a more impressive picture of the new age if he had studied mathematics and taken the pains to master the evidence which was revolutionising astronomy4 ,glanvill had the advantage of comprehending the importance of mathematics for the advance of physical science4 ,he had absorbed ,bacon's doctrine of utility4 ,his spirit is displayed in the remark that more gratitude is due to the unknown inventor of the mariners' compass than to a thousand ,alexanders and ,caesars1 or to ten times the number of ,aristotles4 ,and he really did more for the increase of knowledge and the advantage of the world by this one experiment than the numerous subtile disputers that have lived ever since the erection of the school of talking4 ,glanvill1 however1 in his complacency with what has already been accomplished1 is not misled into over-estimating its importance4 ,he knows that it is indeed little compared with the ideal of attainable knowledge4 ,the human design1 to which it is the function of the ,royal ,society to contribute1 is laid as low1 he says1 as the profoundest depths of nature1 and reaches as high as the uppermost storey of the universe1 extends to all the varieties of the great world1 and aims at the benefit of universal mankind4 ,such a work can only proceed slowly1 by insensible degrees4 ,it is an undertaking wherein all the generations of men are concerned1 and our own age can hope to do little more than to remove useless rubbish1 lay in materials1 and put things in order for the building4 ,we must seek and gather1 observe and examine1 and lay up in bank for the ages that come after4 ,these lines on the vastness of the work suggest to the reader that a vast future will be needed for its accomplishment4 ,glanvill does not dwell on this1 but he implies it4 ,he is evidently unembarrassed by the theological considerations which weighed so heavily on ,hakewill4 ,he does not trouble himself with the question whether ,anti-,christ has still to appear4 ,the difference in general outlook between these two clergymen is an indication how the world had travelled in the course of forty years4 ,another point in ,glanvill's little book deserves attention4 ,he takes into his prospect the inhabitants of the ,transatlantic world2 they1 too1 are to share in the benefits which shall result from the subjugation of nature4 ,by the gaining that mighty continent and the numerous fruitful isles beyond the ,atlantic1 we have obtained a larger field of nature1 and have thereby an advantage for more phenomena1 and more helps both for knowledge and for life1 which 'tis very like that future ages will make better use of to such purposes than those hitherto have done2 and that science also may at last travel into those parts and enrich ,peru with a more precious treasure than that of its golden mines1 is not improbable4 ,sprat1 the ,bishop of ,rochester1 in his interesting ,history of the ,royal ,society1 so sensible and liberal--published shortly before ,glanvill's book1--also contemplates the extension of science over the world4 ,speaking of the prospect of future discoveries1 he thinks it will partly depend on the enlargement of the field of western civilisation if this mechanic genius which now prevails in these parts of ,christendom shall happen to spread wide amongst ourselves and other civil nations1 or if by some good fate it shall pass farther on to other countries that were yet never fully civilised4 ,this then being imagin'd1 that there may some lucky tide of civility flow into those lands which are yet salvage1 then will a double improvement thence arise both in respect of ourselves and them4 ,for even the present skilful parts of mankind will be thereby made more skilful1 and the other will not only increase those arts which we shall bestow upon them1 but will also venture on new searches themselves4 ,he expects much from the new converts1 on the ground that nations which have been taught have proved more capable than their teachers1 appealing to the case of the ,greeks who outdid their eastern masters1 and to that of the peoples of modern ,europe who received their light from the ,romans but have well nigh doubled the ancient stock of trades delivered to their keeping4 #e4 ,the establishment of the ,royal ,society in #affj and the ,academy of ,sciences in #afff made physical science fashionable in ,london and ,paris4 ,macaulay1 in his characteristic way1 describes how dreams of perfect forms of government made way for dreams of wings with which men were to fly from the ,tower to the ,abbey1 and of double-keeled ships which were never to founder in the fiercest storm4 ,all classes were hurried along by the prevailing sentiment4 ,cavalier and ,roundhead1 ,churchman and ,puritan were for once allied4 ,divines1 jurists1 statesmen1 nobles1 princes1 swelled the triumph of the ,baconian philosophy4 ,the seeds sown by ,bacon had at last begun to ripen1 and full credit was given to him by those who founded and acclaimed the ,royal ,society4 ,the ode which ,cowley addressed to that institution might have been entitled an ode in honour of ,bacon1 or still better--for the poet seized the essential point of ,bacon's labours--a hymn on the liberation of the human mind from the yoke of ,authority4 ,bacon has broke that scar-crow ,deity4 ,dryden himself1 in the ,annus ,mirabilis1 had turned aside from his subject1 the defeat of the ,dutch and ,england's mastery of the seas1 to pay a compliment to the ,society1 and to prophesy man's mastery of the universe4 ,instructed ships shall sail to rich commerce1 ,by which remotest regions are allied2 ,which makes one city of the universe1 ,where some may gain and all may be supplied4 ,then we upon our globe's last verge shall go1 ,and view the ocean leaning on the sky1 ,from thence our rolling neighbours we shall know1 ,and on the lunar world securely pry4 ,footnote3 ,it may be noted that ,john ,wilkins 7,bishop of ,chester7 published in #afch a little book entitled ,discovery of a ,new ,world1 arguing that the moon is inhabited4 ,a further edition appeared in #afhd4 ,he attempted to compose a universal language 7,sprat1 ,hist4 of ,royal ,society1 p4 #bea74 ,his ,mercury or the ,secret and ,swift ,messenger 7#afda7 contains proposals for a universal script 7chap4 #ac74 ,there is also an ingenious suggestion for the communication of messages by sound1 which might be described as an anticipation of the ,morse code4 ,wilkins and another divine1 ,seth ,ward1 the ,bishop of ,salisbury1 belonged to the group of men who founded the ,royal ,society4 ,men did not look far into the future2 they did not dream of what the world might be a thousand or ten thousand years hence4 ,they seem to have expected quick results4 ,even ,sprat thinks that the absolute perfection of the true philosophy is not far off1 seeing that this first great and necessary preparation for its coming--the institution of scientific co-operation--has been accomplished4 ,superficial and transient though the popular enthusiasm was1 it was a sign that an age of intellectual optimism had begun1 in which the science of nature would play a leading role4 ,,chapter ,v4 ,,the ,,progress ,,of ,,knowledge3 ,,fontenelle #a4 ,nine months before the first part of ,perrault's work appeared a younger and more brilliant man had formulated1 in a short tract1 the essential points of the doctrine of the progress of knowledge4 ,it was ,fontenelle4 ,fontenelle was an anima naturaliter moderna4 ,trained in the principles of ,descartes1 he was one of those who1 though like ,descartes himself1 too critical to swear by a master1 appreciated unreservedly the value of the ,cartesian method4 ,sometimes1 he says1 a great man gives the tone to his age2 and this is true of ,descartes1 who can claim the glory of having established a new art of reasoning4 ,he sees the effects in literature4 ,the best books on moral and political subjects are distinguished by an arrangement and precision which he traces to the esprit geometrique characteristic of ,descartes4 ,footnote3 ,sur l'utilite des mathematiques el de la physique 7,oeuvres1 iii4 p4 #f1 ed4 #agbi74 ,fontenelle himself had this geometrical mind1 which we see at its best in ,descartes and ,hobbes and ,spinoza4 ,he had indeed a considerable aptitude for letters4 ,he wrote poor verses1 and could not distinguish good poetry from bad4 ,that perhaps was the defect of l'esprit geometrique4 ,but he wrote lucid prose4 ,there was an ironical side to his temper1 and he had an ingenious paradoxical wit1 which he indulged1 with no little felicity1 in his early work1 ,dialogues of the ,dead4 ,these conversations1 though they show no dramatic power and are simply a vehicle for the author's satirical criticisms on life1 are written with a light touch1 and are full of surprises and unexpected turns4 ,the very choice of the interlocutors shows a curious fancy1 which we do not associate with the geometrical intellect4 ,descartes is confronted with the ,third ,false ,demetrius1 and we wonder what the gourmet ,apicius will find to say to ,galileo4 #b4 ,in the ,dialogues of the ,dead1 which appeared in #afhc1 the ,ancient and ,modern controversy is touched on more than once1 and it is the subject of the conversation between ,socrates and ,montaigne4 ,socrates ironically professes to expect that the age of ,montaigne will show a vast improvement on his own2 that men will have profited by the experience of many centuries2 and that the old age of the world will be wiser and better regulated than its youth4 ,montaigne assures him that it is not so1 and that the vigorous types of antiquity1 like ,pericles1 ,aristides1 and ,socrates himself1 are no longer to be found4 ,to this assertion ,socrates opposes the doctrine of the permanence of the forces of ,nature4 ,nature has not degenerated in her other works2 why should she cease to produce reasonable men8 ,he goes on to observe that antiquity is enlarged and exalted by distance3 ,in our own day we esteemed our ancestors more than they deserved1 and now our posterity esteems us more than we deserve4 ,there is really no difference between our ancestors1 ourselves1 and our posterity4 ,c'est toujours la meme chose4 ,but1 objects ,montaigne1 ,i should have thought that things were always changing2 that different ages had their different characters4 ,are there not ages of learning and ages of ignorance1 rude ages and polite8 ,true1 replies ,socrates1 but these are only externalities4 ,the heart of man does not change with the fashions of his life4 ,the order of ,nature remains constant 7l'ordre general de la ,nature a l'air bien constant74 ,this conclusion harmonises with the general spirit of the ,dialogues4 ,the permanence of the forces of ,nature is asserted1 but for the purpose of dismissing the whole controversy as rather futile4 ,elsewhere modern discoveries1 like the circulation of the blood and the motions of the earth1 are criticised as useless2 adding nothing to the happiness and pleasures of mankind4 ,men acquired1 at an early period1 a certain amount of useful knowledge1 to which they have added nothing2 since then they have been slowly discovering things that are unnecessary4 ,nature has not been so unjust as to allow one age to enjoy more pleasures than another4 ,and what is the value of civilisation8 ,it moulds our words1 and embarrasses our actions2 it does not affect our feelings4 ,footnote3 ,see the dialogues of ,harvey with ,erasistratus 7a ,greek physician of the third century ,b4,c472 ,galileo with ,apicius2 ,montezuma with ,fernando ,cortez4 ,one might hardly have expected the author of these ,dialogues to come forward a few years later as a champion of the ,moderns1 even though1 in the dedicatory epistle to ,lucian1 he compared ,france to ,greece4 ,but he was seriously interested in the debated question1 as an intellectual problem1 and in ,january #afhh he published his ,digression on the ,ancients and ,moderns1 a short pamphlet1 but weightier and more suggestive than the large work of his friend ,perrault1 which began to appear nine months later4 #c4 ,the question of pre-eminence between the ,ancients and ,moderns is reducible to another4 ,were trees in ancient times greater than to-day8 ,if they were1 then ,homer1 ,plato1 and ,demosthenes cannot be equalled in modern times2 if they were not1 they can4 ,fontenelle states the problem in this succinct way at the beginning of the ,digression4 ,the permanence of the forces of ,nature had been asserted by ,saint ,sorlin and ,perrault2 they had offered no proof1 and had used the principle rather incidentally and by way of illustration4 ,but the whole inquiry hinged on it4 ,if it can be shown that man has not degenerated1 the cause of the ,moderns is practically won4 ,the issue of the controversy must be decided not by rhetoric but by physics4 ,and ,fontenelle offers what he regards as a formal ,cartesian proof of the permanence of natural forces4 ,if the ,ancients had better intellects than ours1 the brains of that age must have been better arranged1 formed of firmer or more delicate fibres1 fuller of animal spirits4 ,but if such a difference existed1 ,nature must have been more vigorous2 and in that case the trees must have profited by that superior vigour and have been larger and finer4 ,the truth is that ,nature has in her hands a certain paste which is always the same1 which she is ever turning over and over again in a thousand ways1 and of which she forms men1 animals1 and plants4 ,she has not formed ,homer1 ,demosthenes1 and ,plato of a finer or better kneaded clay than our poets1 orators1 and philosophers4 ,do not object that minds are not material4 ,they are connected by a material bond with the brain1 and it is the quality of this material bond that determines intellectual differences4 ,but although natural processes do not change from age to age1 they differ in their effects in different climates4 ,it is certain that as a result of the reciprocal dependence which exists between all parts of the material world1 differences of climate1 which so clearly affect the life of plants1 must also produce some effect on human brains4 ,may it not be said then that1 in consequence of climatic conditions1 ancient ,greece and ,rome produced men of mental qualities different from those which could be produced in ,france8 ,oranges grow easily in ,italy2 it is more difficult to cultivate them in ,france4 ,fontenelle replies that art and cultivation exert a much greater influence on human brains than on the soil2 ideas can be transported more easily from one country to another than plants2 and as a consequence of commerce and mutual influence1 peoples do not retain the original mental peculiarities due to climate4 ,this may not be true of the extreme climates in the torrid and glacial zones1 but in the temperate zone we may discount entirely climatic influence4 ,the climates of ,greece and ,italy and that of ,france are too similar to cause any sensible difference between the ,greeks or ,latins and the ,french4 ,saint ,sorlin and ,perrault had argued directly from the permanence of vigour in lions or trees to the permanence of vigour in man4 ,if trees are the same as ever1 brains must also be the same4 ,but what about the minor premiss8 ,who knows that trees are precisely the same8 ,it is an indemonstrable assumption that oaks and beeches in the days of ,socrates and ,cicero were not slightly better trees than the oaks and beeches of to-day4 ,fontenelle saw the weakness of this reasoning4 ,he saw that it was necessary to prove that the trees1 no less than human brains1 have not degenerated4 ,but his a priori proof is simply a statement of the ,cartesian principle of the stability of natural processes1 which he put in a thoroughly unscientific form4 ,the stability of the laws of nature is a necessary hypothesis1 without which science would be impossible4 ,but here it was put to an illegitimate use4 ,for it means that1 given precisely the same conditions1 the same physical phenomena will occur4 ,fontenelle therefore was bound to show that conditions had not altered in such a way as to cause changes in the quality of nature's organic productions4 ,he did not do this4 ,he did not take into consideration1 for instance1 that climatic conditions may vary from age to age as well as from country to country4 #d4 ,having established the natural equality of the ,ancients and ,moderns1 ,fontenelle inferred that whatever differences exist are due to external conditions--7#a7 time2 7#b7 political institutions and the estate of affairs in general4 ,the ancients were prior in time to us1 therefore they were the authors of the first inventions4 ,for that1 they cannot be regarded as our superiors4 ,if we had been in their place we should have been the inventors1 like them2 if they were in ours1 they would add to those inventions1 like us4 ,there is no great mystery in that4 ,we must impute equal merit to the early thinkers who showed the way and to the later thinkers who pursued it4 ,if the ancient attempts to explain the universe have been recently replaced by the discovery of a simple system 7the ,cartesian71 we must consider that the truth could only be reached by the elimination of false routes1 and in this way the numbers of the ,pythagoreans1 the ideas of ,plato1 the qualities of ,aristotle1 all served indirectly to advance knowledge4 ,we are under an obligation to the ancients for having exhausted almost all the false theories that could be formed4 ,enlightened both by their true views and by their errors1 it is not surprising that we should surpass them4 ,but all this applies only to scientific studies1 like mathematics1 physics1 and medicine1 which depend partly on correct reasoning and partly on experience4 ,methods of reasoning improve slowly1 and the most important advance which has been made in the present age is the method inaugurated by ,descartes4 ,before him reasoning was loose2 he introduced a more rigid and precise standard1 and its influence is not only manifest in our best works on physics and philosophy1 but is even discernible in books on ethics and religion4 ,we must expect posterity to excel us as we excel the ,ancients1 through improvement of method1 which is a science in itself--the most difficult and least studied of all--and through increase of experience4 ,evidently the process is endless 7il est evident que tout cela n'a point de fin71 and the latest men of science must be the most competent4 ,but this does not apply to poetry or eloquence1 round which the controversy has most violently raged4 ,for poetry and eloquence do not depend on correct reasoning4 ,they depend principally on vivacity of imagination1 and vivacity of imagination does not require a long course of experiments1 or a great multitude of rules1 to attain all the perfection of which it is capable4 ,such perfection might be attained in a few centuries4 ,if the ancients did achieve perfection in imaginative literature1 it follows that they cannot be surpassed2 but we have no right to say1 as their admirers are fond of pretending1 that they cannot be equalled4 #e4 ,besides the mere nature of time1 we have to take into account external circumstances in considering this question4 ,if the forces of nature are permanent1 how are we to explain the fact that in the barbarous centuries after the decline of ,rome--the term ,middle ,ages has not yet come into currency--ignorance was so dense and deep8 ,this breach of continuity is one of the plausible arguments of the advocates of the ,ancients4 ,those ages1 they say1 were ignorant and barbarous because the ,greek and ,latin writers had ceased to be read2 as soon as the study of the classical models revived there was a renaissance of reason and good taste4 ,that is true1 but it proves nothing4 ,nature never forgot how to mould the head of ,cicero or ,livy4 ,she produces in every age men who might be great men2 but the age does not always allow them to exert their talents4 ,inundations of barbarians1 universal wars1 governments which discourage or do not favour science and art1 prejudices which assume all variety of shapes--like the ,chinese prejudice against dissecting corpses--may impose long periods of ignorance or bad taste4 ,but observe that1 though the return to the study of the ancients revived1 as at one stroke1 the aesthetic ideals which they had created and the learning which they had accumulated1 yet even if their works had not been preserved we should1 though it would have cost us many long years of labour1 have discovered for ourselves ideas of the true and the beautiful4 ,where should we have found them8 ,where the ancients themselves found them1 after much groping4 #f4 ,the comparison of the life of collective humanity to the life of a single man1 which had been drawn by ,bacon and ,pascal1 ,saint ,sorlin and ,perrault1 contains or illustrates an important truth which bears on the whole question4 ,fontenelle puts it thus4 ,an educated mind is1 as it were1 composed of all the minds of preceding ages2 we might say that a single mind was being educated throughout all history4 ,thus this secular man1 who has lived since the beginning of the world1 has had his infancy in which he was absorbed by the most urgent needs of life2 his youth in which he succeeded pretty well in things of imagination like poetry and eloquence1 and even began to reason1 but with more courage than solidity4 ,he is now in the age of manhood1 is more enlightened1 and reasons better2 but he would have advanced further if the passion for war had not distracted him and given him a distaste for the sciences to which he has at last returned4 ,figures1 if they are pressed1 are dangerous2 they suggest unwarrantable conclusions4 ,it may be illuminative to liken the development of humanity to the growth of an individual2 but to infer that the human race is now in its old age1 merely on the strength of the comparison1 is obviously unjustifiable4 ,that is what ,bacon and the others had done4 ,the fallacy was pointed out by ,fontenelle4 ,from his point of view1 an old age of humanity1 which if it meant anything meant decay as well as the wisdom of experience1 was contrary to the principle of the permanence of natural forces4 ,man1 he asserts1 will have no old age4 ,he will be always equally capable1 of achieving the successes of his youth2 and he will become more and more expert in the things which become the age of virility4 ,or to drop metaphor1 men will never degenerate4 ,in ages to come we may be regarded--say in ,america--with the same excess of admiration with which we regard the ancients4 ,we might push the prediction further4 ,in still later ages the interval of time which divides us from the ,greeks and ,romans will appear so relatively small to posterity that they will classify us and the ancients as virtually contemporary2 just in the same way as we group together the ,greeks and ,romans1 though the ,romans in their own day were moderns in relation to the ,greeks4 ,in that remote period men will be able to judge without prejudice the comparative merits of ,sophocles and ,corneille4 ,unreasonable admiration for the ancients is one of the chief obstacles to progress 7le progres des choses74 ,philosophy not only did not advance1 but even fell into an abyss of unintelligible ideas1 because1 through devotion to the authority of ,aristotle1 men sought truth in his enigmatic writings instead of seeking it in nature4 ,if the authority of ,descartes were ever to have the same fortune1 the results would be no less disastrous4 #g4 ,this memorable brochure exhibits1 without pedantry1 perspicuous arrangement and the geometrical precision on which ,fontenelle remarked as one of the notes of the new epoch introduced by ,descartes4 ,it displays too the author's open-mindedness1 and his readiness to follow where the argument leads4 ,he is able already to look beyond ,cartesianism2 he knows that it cannot be final4 ,no man of his time was more open-minded and free from prejudice than ,fontenelle4 ,this quality of mind helped him to turn his eyes to the future4 ,perrault and his predecessors were absorbed in the interest of the present and the past4 ,descartes was too much engaged in his own original discoveries to do more than throw a passing glance at posterity4 ,now the prospect of the future was one of the two elements which were still needed to fashion the theory of the progress of knowledge4 ,all the conditions for such a theory were present4 ,bodin and ,bacon1 ,descartes and the champions of the ,moderns--the reaction against the ,renaissance1 and the startling discoveries of science--had prepared the way2 progress was established for the past and present4 ,but the theory of the progress of knowledge includes and acquires its value by including the indefinite future4 ,this step was taken by ,fontenelle4 ,the idea had been almost excluded by ,bacon's misleading metaphor of old age1 which ,fontenelle expressly rejects4 ,man will have no old age2 his intellect will never degenerate2 and the sound views of intellectual men in successive generations will continually add up4 ,but progress must not only be conceived as extending indefinitely into the future2 it must also be conceived as necessary and certain4 ,this is the second essential feature of the theory4 ,the theory would have little value or significance1 if the prospect of progress in the future depended on chance or the unpredictable discretion of an external will4 ,fontenelle asserts implicitly the certainty of progress when he declares that the discoveries and improvements of the modern age would have been made by the ancients if they exchanged places with the moderns2 for this amounts to saying that science will progress and knowledge increase independently of particular individuals4 ,if ,descartes had not been born1 some one else would have done his work2 and there could have been no ,descartes before the seventeenth century4 ,for1 as he says in a later work1 ,footnote3 ,preface des elemens de la geometrie de l'infini 7,o,euvres1 x4 p4 #dj1 ed4 #agij74 there is an order which regulates our progress4 ,every science develops after a certain number of preceding sciences have developed1 and only then2 it has to await its turn to burst its shell4 ,fontenelle1 then1 was the first to formulate the idea of the progress1 of knowledge1 as a complete doctrine4 ,at the moment the import and far-reaching effects of the idea were not realised1 either by himself or by others1 and his pamphlet1 which appeared in the company of a perverse theory of pastoral poetry1 was acclaimed merely as an able defence of the ,moderns4 #h4 ,if the theory of the indefinite progress of knowledge is true1 it is one of those truths which were originally established by false reasoning4 ,it was established on a principle which excluded degeneration1 but equally excluded evolution2 and the whole conception of nature which ,fontenelle had learned from ,descartes is long since dead and buried4 ,but it is more important to observe that this principle1 which seemed to secure the indefinite progress of knowledge1 disabled ,fontenelle from suggesting a theory of the progress of society4 ,the invariability of nature1 as he conceived it1 was true of the emotions and the will1 as well as of the intellect4 ,it implied that man himself would be psychically always the same--unalterable1 incurable4 ,l'ordre general de la ,nature a ,fair bien constant4 ,his opinion of the human race was expressed in the ,dialogues of the ,dead1 ,footnote3 ,it may be seen too in the ,plurality of ,worlds4 and it never seems to have varied4 ,the world consists of a multitude of fools1 and a mere handful of reasonable men4 ,men's passions will always be the same and will produce wars in the future as in the past4 ,civilisation makes no difference2 it is little more than a veneer4 ,even if theory had not stood in his way1 ,fontenelle was the last man who was likely to dream dreams of social improvement4 ,he was temperamentally an ,epicurean1 of the same refined stamp as ,epicurus himself1 and he enjoyed throughout his long life--he lived to the age of a hundred--the tranquillity which was the true ,epicurean ideal4 ,he was never troubled by domestic cares1 and his own modest ambition was satisfied when1 at the age of forty1 he was appointed permanent ,secretary of the ,academy of ,sciences4 ,he was not the man to let his mind dwell on the woes and evils of the world2 and the follies and perversities which cause them interested him only so far as they provided material for his wit4 ,it remains1 however1 noteworthy that the author of the theory of the progress of knowledge1 which was afterwards to expand into a general theory of human ,progress1 would not have allowed that this extension was legitimate2 though it was through this extension that ,fontenelle's idea acquired human value and interest and became a force in the world4 #i4 ,fontenelle did a good deal more than formulate the idea4 ,he reinforced it by showing that the prospect of a steady and rapid increase of knowledge in the future was certified4 ,the postulate of the immutability of the laws of nature1 which has been the indispensable basis for the advance of modern science1 is fundamental with ,descartes4 ,but ,descartes did not explicitly insist on it1 and it was ,fontenelle1 perhaps more than any one else1 who made it current coin4 ,that was a service performed by the disciple2 but he seems to have been original in introducing the fruitful idea of the sciences as confederate and intimately interconnected ,footnote3 ,roger ,bacon1 as we saw1 had a glimpse of this principle42 not forming a number of isolated domains1 as hitherto1 but constituting a system in which the advance of one will contribute to the advance of the others4 ,he exposed with masterly ability the reciprocal relations of physics and mathematics4 ,no man of his day had a more comprehensive view of all the sciences1 though he made no original contributions to any4 ,his curiosity was universal1 and as ,secretary of the ,academy he was obliged1 according to his own high standard of his duty1 to keep abreast of all that was being done in every branch of knowledge4 ,that was possible then2 it would be impossible now4 ,in the famous series of obituary discourses which he delivered on savants who were members of the ,academy1 ,fontenelle probably thought that he was contributing to the realisation of this ideal of solidarity1 for they amounted to a chronicle of scientific progress in every department4 ,they are free from technicalities and extraordinarily lucid1 and they appealed not only to men of science1 but to those of the educated public who possessed some scientific curiosity4 ,this brings us to another important role of ,fontenelle--the role of interpreter of the world of science to the world outside4 ,it is closely related to our subject4 ,for the popularisation of science1 which was to be one of the features of the nineteenth century1 was in fact a condition of the success of the idea of ,progress4 ,that idea could not insinuate itself into the public mind and become a living force in civilised societies until the meaning and value of science had been generally grasped1 and the results of scientific discovery had been more or less diffused4 ,the achievements of physical science did more than anything else to convert the imaginations of men to the general doctrine of ,progress4 ,before the later part of the seventeenth century1 the remarkable physical discoveries of recent date had hardly escaped beyond academic circles4 ,but an interest in these subjects began to become the fashion in the later years of ,louis ,,xiv4 ,science was talked in the salons2 ladies studied mechanics and anatomy4 ,moliere's play1 ,les ,femmes savantes1 which appeared in #afgb1 is one of the first indications4 ,in #afhf ,fontenelle published his ,conversations on the ,plurality of ,worlds1 in which a savant explains the new astronomy to a lady in the park of a country house4 ,footnote3 ,the ,marquise of the ,plurality of ,worlds is supposed to be ,madame de la ,mesangere1 who lived near ,rouen1 ,fontenelle's birthplace4 ,he was a friend and a frequent visitor at her chateau4 ,see ,maigron1 ,fontenelle1 p4 #db4 ,the ,english translation of #afhh was by ,glanvill4 ,a new translation was published at ,dublin as late as #agfa4 ,it is the first book--at least the first that has any claim to be remembered--in the literature of popular science1 and it is one of the most striking4 ,it met with the success which it deserved4 ,it was reprinted again and again1 and it was almost immediately translated into ,english4 ,the significance of the ,plurality of ,worlds is indeed much greater than that of a pioneer work in popularisation and a model in the art of making technical subjects interesting4 ,we must remember that at this time the belief that the sun revolves round the earth still prevailed4 ,only the few knew better4 ,the cosmic revolution which is associated with the names of ,copernicus1 ,kepler1 and ,galileo was slow in producing its effects4 ,it was rejected by ,bacon2 and the condemnation of ,galileo by the ,church made ,descartes1 who dreaded nothing so much as a collision with the ecclesiastical authorities unwilling to insist on it4 ,footnote3 ,cp4 ,bouillier1 ,histoire de la philosophie cartesienne1 i4 p4 #db-c4 ,milton's ,raphael1 in the ,eighth ,book of ,paradise ,lost 7published #affg71 does not venture to affirm the ,copernican system2 he explains it sympathetically1 but leaves the question open4 ,footnote3 ,masson 7,milton's ,poetical ,works1 vol4 #b7 observes that ,milton's life 7#afjh-gd7 coincides with the period of the struggle between the two systems 7p4 #ij74 ,milton's friends1 the ,smectymnians1 in answer to ,bishop ,hall's ,humble ,remonstrance 7#afda71 had cited the ,copernican doctrine as an unquestionable instance of a supreme absurdity4 ,masson has some apposite remarks on the influence of the ,ptolemaic system upon the thinkings and imaginations of mankind everywhere on all subjects whatsoever till about two hundred years ago4 ,fontenelle's book was an event4 ,it disclosed to the general public a new picture of the universe1 to which men would have to accustom their imaginations4 ,we may perhaps best conceive all that this change meant by supposing what a difference it would make to us if it were suddenly discovered that the old system which ,copernicus upset was true after all1 and that we had to think ourselves back into a strictly limited universe of which the earth is the centre4 ,the loss of its privileged position by our own planet2 its degradation1 from a cosmic point of view1 to insignificance2 the necessity of admitting the probability that there may be many other inhabited worlds--all this had consequences ranging beyond the field of astronomy4 ,it was as if a man who dreamed that he was living in ,paris or ,london should awake to discover that he was really in an obscure island in the ,pacific ,ocean1 and that the ,pacific ,ocean was immeasurably vaster than he had imagined4 ,the ,marquise1 in the ,plurality of ,worlds1 reacts to the startling illumination3 ,voila l'univers si grand que je m'y perds1 je ne sais plus ou je suis2 je ne suis plus rien4--,la terre est si effroyablement petite6 ,such a revolution in cosmic values could not fail to exert a penetrating influence on human thought4 ,the privileged position of the earth had been a capital feature of the whole doctrine1 as to the universe and man's destinies1 which had been taught by the ,church1 and it had made that doctrine more specious than it might otherwise have seemed4 ,though the ,churches could reform their teaching to meet the new situation1 the fact remained that the ,christian scheme sounded less plausible when the central importance of the human race was shown to be an illusion4 ,would man1 stripped of his cosmic pretensions1 and finding himself lost in the immensities of space1 invent a more modest theory of his destinies confined to his own little earth--si effroyablement petite8 ,the eighteenth century answered this question by the theory of ,progress4 #aj4 ,fontenelle is one of the most representative thinkers of that period--we have no distinguishing name for it--which lies between the characteristic thinkers of the seventeenth century and the characteristic thinkers of the eighteenth4 ,it is a period of over sixty years1 beginning about #afhj1 for though ,montesquieu and ,voltaire were writing long before #agdj1 the great influential works of the age of illumination begin with the ,esprit des lois in #agdh4 ,the intellectual task of this intervening period was to turn to account the ideas provided by the philosophy of ,descartes1 and use them as solvents of the ideas handed down from the ,middle ,ages4 ,we might almost call it the ,cartesian period for1 though ,descartes was dead1 it was in these years that ,cartesianism performed its task and transformed human thought4 ,when we speak of ,cartesianism we do not mean the metaphysical system of the master1 or any of his particular views such as that of innate ideas4 ,we mean the general principles1 which were to leave an abiding impression on the texture of thought3 the supremacy of reason over authority1 the stability of the laws of ,nature1 rigorous standards of proof4 ,fontenelle was far from accepting all the views of ,descartes1 whom he does not scruple to criticise2 but he was a true ,cartesian in the sense that he was deeply imbued with these principles1 which generated1 to use an expression of his own1 des especes de rebelles1 qui conspiraient contre l'ignorance et les prejuges dominants4 ,footnote3 ,eloge de ,m4 ,lemery4 ,and of all these rebels against ruling prejudices he probably did more than any single man to exhibit the consequences of the ,cartesian ideas and drive them home4 ,the ,plurality of ,worlds was a contribution to the task of transforming thought and abolishing ancient error2 but the ,history of ,oracles which appeared in the following year was more characteristic4 ,it was a free adaptation of an unreadable ,latin treatise by a ,dutchman1 which in ,fontenelle's skilful hands becomes a vehicle for applying ,cartesian solvents to theological authority4 ,the thesis is that the ,greek oracles were a sacerdotal imposture1 and not1 as ecclesiastical tradition said1 the work of evil spirits1 who were stricken silent at the death of ,jesus ,christ4 ,the effect was to discredit the authority of the early ,fathers of the ,church1 though the writer has the discretion to repudiate such an intention4 ,for the publication was risky2 and twenty years later a ,jesuit ,father wrote a treatise to confute it1 and exposed the secret poison1 with consequences which might have been disastrous for ,fontenelle if he had not had powerful friends among the ,jesuits themselves4 ,fontenelle had none of the impetuosity of ,voltaire1 and after the publication of the ,history of ,oracles he confined his criticism of tradition to the field of science4 ,he was convinced that les choses fort etablies ne peuvent etre attaquees que par degrez4 ,footnote3 ,eloge de ,m4 ,lemery4 ,the secret poison1 of which ,fontenelle prepared this remarkable dose with a touch which reminds us of ,voltaire1 was being administered in the same ,cartesian period1 and with similar precautions1 by ,bayle4 ,like ,fontenelle1 this great sceptic1 the father of modern incredulity as he was called by ,joseph de ,maistre1 stood between the two centuries and belonged to both4 ,like ,fontenelle1 he took a gloomy view of humanity2 he had no faith in that goodness of human nature which was to be a characteristic dogma of the age of illumination4 ,but he was untouched by the discoveries of science2 he took no interest in ,galileo or ,newton2 and while the most important work of ,fontenelle was the interpretation of the positive advances of knowledge1 ,bayle's was entirely subversive4 ,the principle of unchangeable laws in nature is intimately connected with the growth of ,deism which is a note of this period4 ,the function of the ,deity was virtually confined to originating the machine of nature1 which1 once regulated1 was set beyond any further interference on ,his part1 though ,his existence might be necessary for its conservation4 ,a view so sharply opposed to the current belief could not have made way as it did without a penetrating criticism of the current theology4 ,such criticism was performed by ,bayle4 ,his works were a school for rationalism for about seventy years4 ,he supplied to the thinkers of the eighteenth century1 ,english as well as ,french1 a magazine of subversive arguments1 and he helped to emancipate morality both from theology and from metaphysics4 ,this intellectual revolutionary movement1 which was propagated in salons as well as by books1 shook the doctrine of ,providence which ,bossuet had so eloquently expounded4 ,it meant the enthronement of reason--,cartesian reason--before whose severe tribunal history as well as opinions were tried4 ,new rules of criticism were introduced1 new standards of proof4 ,when ,fontenelle observed that the existence of ,alexander the ,great could not be strictly demonstrated and was no more than highly probable1 ,footnote3 ,plurality des mondes1 sixieme soir4 it was an undesigned warning that tradition would receive short shrift at the hands of men trained in analytical ,cartesian methods4 #aa4 ,that the issue between the claims of antiquity and the modern age should have been debated independently in ,england and ,france indicates that the controversy was an inevitable incident in the liberation of the human spirit from the authority of the ancients4 ,towards the end of the century the debate in ,france aroused attention in ,england and led to a literary quarrel1 less important but not less acrimonious than that which raged in ,france4 ,sir ,william ,temple's ,essay1 ,wotton's ,reflexions1 and ,swift's satire the ,battle of the ,books are the three outstanding works in the episode1 which is however chiefly remembered on account of its connection with ,bentley's masterly exposure of the fabricated letters of ,phalaris4 ,the literary debate in ,france1 indeed1 could not have failed to reverberate across the ,channel2 for never perhaps did the literary world in ,england follow with more interest1 or appreciate more keenly the productions of the great ,french writers of the time4 ,in describing ,will's coffee-house1 which was frequented by ,dryden and all who pretended to be interested in polite letters1 ,macaulay says1 there was a faction for ,perrault and the moderns1 a faction for ,boileau and the ancients4 ,in the discussions on this subject a remarkable ,frenchman who had long lived in ,england as an exile1 ,m4 de ,saint ,evremond1 must have constantly taken part4 ,the disjointed pieces of which ,saint ,evremond's writings consist are tedious and superficial1 but they reveal a mind of much cultivation and considerable common sense4 ,his judgement on ,perrault's ,parallel is that the author has discovered the defects of the ancients better than he has made out the advantage of the moderns2 his book is good and capable of curing us of abundance of errors4 ,footnote3 ,in a letter to the ,duchess of ,mazarin1 ,works1 ,eng4 tr41 iii4 #dah4 ,he was not a partisan4 ,but his friend1 ,sir ,william ,temple1 excited by the ,french depreciations of antiquity1 rushed into the lists with greater courage than discretion4 ,temple was ill equipped for the controversy1 though his ,essay on ,ancient and ,modern ,learning 7#afij7 is far from deserving the disdain of ,macaulay1 who describes its matter as ludicrous and contemptible to the last degree4 ,footnote3 ,the only point in it which need be noted here is that the author questioned the cogency of ,fontenelle's argument1 that the forces of nature being permanent human ability is in all ages the same4 ,may there not1 he asks1 many circumstances concur to one production that do not to any other in one or many ages8 ,fontenelle speaks of trees4 ,it is conceivable that various conditions and accidents may produce an oak1 a fig1 or a plane-tree1 that shall deserve to be renowned in story1 and shall not perhaps be paralleled in other countries or times4 ,may not the same have happened in the production1 growth1 and size of wit and genius in the world1 or in some parts or ages of it1 and from many more circumstances that contributed towards it than what may concur to the stupendous growth of a tree or animal8 ,and it must be confessed that the most useful result of the ,essay was the answer which it provoked from ,wotton4 ,for ,wotton had a far wider range of knowledge1 and a more judicious mind1 than any of the other controversialists1 with the exception of ,fontenelle2 and in knowledge of antiquity he was ,fontenelle's superior4 ,his inquiry stands out as the most sensible and unprejudiced contribution to the whole debate4 ,he accepts as just the reasoning of ,fontenelle as to the comparative force of the geniuses of men in the several ages of the world and of the equal force of men's understandings absolutely considered in all times since learning first began to be cultivated amongst mankind4 ,but this is not incompatible with the thesis that in some branches the ancients excelled all who came after them4 ,for it is not necessary to explain such excellence by the hypothesis that there was a particular force of genius evidently discernible in former ages1 but extinct long since1 and that nature is now worn out and spent4 ,there is an alternative explanation4 ,there may have been special circumstances which might suit with those ages which did exceed ours1 and with those things wherein they did exceed us1 and with no other age nor thing besides4 ,but we must begin our inquiry by sharply distinguishing two fields of mental activity--the field of art1 including poetry1 oratory1 architecture1 painting1 and statuary2 and the field of knowledge1 including mathematics1 natural science1 physiology1 with all their dependencies4 ,in the case of the first group there is room for variety of opinion2 but the superiority of the ,greeks and ,romans in poetry and literary style may be admitted without prejudice to the mental equality of the moderns1 for it may be explained partly by the genius of their languages and partly by political circumstances--for example1 in the case of oratory1 ,footnote3 ,this had been noted by ,fontenelle in his ,digression4 by the practical necessity of eloquence4 ,but as regards the other group1 knowledge is not a matter of opinion or taste1 and a definite judgement is possible4 ,wotton then proceeds to review systematically the field of science1 and easily shows1 with more completeness and precision than ,perrault1 the superiority of modern methods and the enormous strides which had been made4 ,as to the future1 ,wotton expresses himself cautiously4 ,it is not easy to say whether knowledge will advance in the next age proportionally to its advance in this4 ,he has some fears that there may be a falling away1 because ancient learning has still too great a hold over modern books1 and physical and mathematical studies tend to be neglected4 ,but he ends his ,reflexions by the speculation that some future age1 though perhaps not the next1 and in a country now possibly little thought of1 may do that which our great men would be glad to see done2 that is to say1 may raise real knowledge1 upon foundations laid in this age1 to the utmost possible perfection to which it may be brought by mortal men in this imperfect state4 ,the distinction1 on which ,wotton insisted1 between the sciences which require ages for their development and the imaginative arts which may reach perfection in a short time had been recognised by ,fontenelle1 whose argument on this point differs from that of his friend ,perrault4 ,for ,perrault contended that in literature and art1 as well as in science1 later generations can1 through the advantage of time and longer experience1 attain to a higher excellence than their predecessors4 ,fontenelle1 on the other hand1 held that poetry and eloquence have a restricted field1 and that therefore there must be a time at which they reach a point of excellence which cannot be exceeded4 ,it was his personal opinion that eloquence and history actually reached the highest possible perfection in ,cicero and ,livy4 ,but neither ,fontenelle nor ,wotton came into close quarters with the problem which was raised--not very clearly1 it is true--by ,perrault4 ,is there development in the various species of literature and art8 ,do they profit and enrich themselves by the general advance of civilisation8 ,perrault1 as we have seen1 threw out the suggestion that increased experience and psychological study enabled the moderns to penetrate more deeply into the recesses of the human soul1 and therefore to bring to a higher perfection the treatment of the character1 motives1 and passions of men4 ,this suggestion admits of being extended4 ,in the ,introduction to his ,revolt of ,islam1 ,shelley1 describing his own intellectual and aesthetic experiences1 writes3 ,the poetry of ancient ,greece and ,rome1 and modern ,italy1 and our own country1 has been to me like external nature1 a passion and an enjoyment4444 ,i have considered poetry in its most comprehensive sense2 and have read the poets and the historians and the metaphysicians whose writings have been accessible to me--and have looked upon the beautiful and majestic scenery of the earth--as common sources of those elements which it is the province of the ,poet to embody and combine4 ,and he appends a note3 ,in this sense there may be such a thing as perfectibility in works of fiction1 notwithstanding the concession often made by the advocates of human improvement1 that perfectibility is a term applicable only to science4 ,in other words1 all the increases of human experience1 from age to age1 all the speculative adventures of the intellect1 provide the artist1 in each succeeding generation1 with more abundant sources for aesthetic treatment4 ,as years go on1 life in its widest sense offers more and more materials which it is the province of the ,poet to embody and combine4 ,this is evidently true2 and would it not seem to follow that literature is not excluded from participating in the common development of civilisation8 ,one of the latest of the champions of the ,moderns1 the ,abbe ,terrasson1 maintained that to separate the general view of the progress of the human mind in regard to natural science1 and in regard to belles-lettres1 would be a fitting expedient to a man who had two souls1 but it is useless to him who has only one4 ,footnote3 ,abbe ,terrasson1 #afgj-agej4 ,his ,philosophie applicable a tons les objets de l'esprit et de la raison was issued posthumously in #aged4 ,his ,dissertation critique sur l',iliade appeared in #agae4;,he put the matter in too abstract a way to carry conviction2 but the nineteenth century was to judge that he was not entirely wrong4 ,for the question was1 as we shall see1 raised anew by ,madame de ,stael1 and the theory was finally to emerge that art and literature1 like laws and institutions1 are an expression of society and therefore inextricably linked with the other elements of social development--a theory1 it may be observed1 which while it has discredited the habit of considering works of art in a vacuum1 dateless and detached1 as they were generally considered by critics of the seventeenth century1 leaves the aesthetic problem much where it was4 ,perrault's suggestion as to the enrichment of the material of the artist by new acquisitions would have served to bring literature and art into the general field of human development1 without compromising the distinction on which ,wotton and others insisted between the natural sciences and the aesthetic arts4 ,but that distinction1 emphatically endorsed by ,voltaire1 had the effect of excluding literature and art from the view of those who in the eighteenth century recognised progress in the other activities of man4 #ab4 ,it is notable that in this literary controversy the ,moderns1 even ,fontenelle1 seem curiously negligent of the import of the theory which they were propounding of the intellectual progress of man4 ,they treat it almost incidentally1 as part of the case for the defence1 not as an immensely important conclusion4 ,its bearings were more definitely realised by the ,abbe ,terrasson1 whom ,i have just named4 ,a geometer and a ,cartesian1 he took part in the controversy in its latest stage1 when ,la ,motte and ,madame ,dacier were the principal antagonists4 ,the human mind1 he said1 has had its infancy and youth2 its maturity began in the age of ,augustus2 the barbarians arrested its course till the ,renaissance2 in the seventeenth century1 through the illuminating philosophy of ,descartes1 it passed beyond the stage which it had attained in the ,augustan age1 and the eighteenth century should surpass the seventeenth4 ,cartesianism is not final2 it has its place in a development4 ,it was made possible by previous speculations1 and it will be succeeded by other systems4 ,we must not pursue the analogy of humanity with an individual man and anticipate a period of old age4 ,for unlike the individual1 humanity being composed of all ages1 is always gaining instead of losing4 ,the age of maturity will last indefinitely1 because it is a progressive1 not a stationary1 maturity4 ,later generations will always be superior to the earlier1 for progress is a natural and necessary effect of the constitution of the human mind4 ,,chapter ,,vi4 ,,the ,,general ,,progress ,,of ,,man3 ,,abbe ,,de ,,saint-,,pierre ,the revolutionary speculations on the social and moral condition of man which were the outstanding feature of the eighteenth century in ,france1 and began about #agej1 were the development of the intellectual movement of the seventeenth1 which had changed the outlook of speculative thought4 ,it was one continuous rationalistic movement4 ,in the days of ,racine and ,perrault men had been complacently conscious of the enlightenment of the age in which they were living1 and as time went on1 this consciousness became stronger and acuter2 it is a note of the age of ,voltaire4 ,in the last years of ,louis ,,xiv41 and in the years which followed1 the contrast between this mental enlightenment and the dark background--the social evils and miseries of the kingdom1 the gross misgovernment and oppression--began to insinuate itself into men's minds4 ,what was the value of the achievements of science1 and the improvement of the arts of life1 if life itself could not be ameliorated8 ,was not some radical reconstruction possible1 in the social fabric1 corresponding to the radical reconstruction inaugurated by ,descartes in the principles of science and in the methods of thought8 ,year by year the obscurantism of the ruling powers became more glaring1 and the most gifted thinkers1 towards the middle of the century1 began to concentrate their brains on the problems of social science and to turn the light of reason on the nature of man and the roots of society4 ,they wrought with unscrupulous resolution and with far-reaching effects4 ,with the extension of rationalism into the social domain1 it came about naturally that the idea of intellectual progress was enlarged into the idea of the general ,progress of man4 ,the transition was easy4 ,if it could be proved that social evils were due neither to innate and incorrigible disabilities of the human being nor to the nature of things1 but simply to ignorance and prejudices1 then the improvement of his state1 and ultimately the attainment of felicity1 would be only a matter of illuminating ignorance and removing errors1 of increasing knowledge and diffusing light4 ,the growth of the universal human reason--a ,cartesian phrase1 which had figured in the philosophy of ,malebranche--must assure a happy destiny to humanity4 ,between #afij and #agdj the conception of an indefinite progress of enlightenment had been making its way in ,french intellectual circles1 and must often have been a topic of discussion in the salons1 for instance1 of ,madame de ,lambert1 ,madame de ,tencin1 and ,madame ,dupin1 where ,fontenelle was one of the most conspicuous guests4 ,to the same circle belonged his friend the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre1 and it is in his writings that we first find the theory widened in its compass to embrace progress towards social perfection4 ,footnote3 ,for his life and works the best book is ,j4 ,drouet's monograph1 ,l',abbe de ,saint-,pierre3 l'homme et l'oeuvre 7#aiab71 but on some points ,goumy's older study 7#ahei7 is still worth consulting4 ,i have used the edition of his works in #ab volumes published during his lifetime at ,rotterdam1 #agcc-cg4 #a4 ,he was brought up on ,cartesian principles1 and he idealised ,descartes somewhat as ,lucretius idealised ,epicurus4 ,but he had no aptitude for philosophy1 and he prized physical science only as far as it directly administered to the happiness of men4 ,he was a natural utilitarian1 and perhaps no one was ever more consistent in making utility the criterion of all actions and theories4 ,applying this standard he obliterated from the roll of great men most of those whom common opinion places among the greatest4 ,alexander1 ,julius ,caesar1 ,charlemagne receive short shrift from the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,footnote3 ,compare ,voltaire1 ,lettres sur les ,anglais1 xii41 where ,newton is acclaimed as the greatest man who ever lived4 ,he was superficial in his knowledge both of history and of science1 and his conception of utility was narrow and a little vulgar4 ,great theoretical discoverers like ,newton and ,leibnitz he sets in a lower rank than ingenious persons who used their scientific skill to fashion some small convenience of life4 ,monuments of art1 like ,notre ,dame1 possessed little value in his eyes compared with a road1 a bridge1 or a canal4 ,like most of his distinguished contemporaries he was a ,deist4 ,on his deathbed he received the usual rites of the ,church in the presence of his household1 and then told the priest that he did not believe a word of all that4 ,his real views are transparent in some of his works through the conventional disguises in which prudent writers of the time were wont to wrap their assaults on orthodoxy4 ,to attack ,mohammedanism by arguments which are equally applicable to ,christianity was a device for propagating rationalism in days when it was dangerous to propagate it openly4 ,this is what the ,abbe did in his ,discourse against ,mohammedanism4 ,again1 in his ,physical ,explanation of an ,apparition he remarks3 ,to diminish our fanatical proclivities1 it would be useful if the ,government were to establish an annual prize1 to be awarded by the ,academy of ,sciences1 for the best explanation1 by natural laws1 of the extraordinary effects of imagination1 of the prodigies related in ,greek and ,latin literature1 and of the pretended miracles told by ,protestants1 ,schismatics1 and ,mohammedans4 ,the author carefully keeps on the right side of the fence4 ,no ,catholic authorities could take exception to this4 ,but no intelligent reader could fail to see that all miracles were attacked4 ,the miracles accepted by the ,protestants were also believed in by the ,catholics4 ,he was one of the remarkable figures of his age4 ,we might almost say that he was a new type--a nineteenth century humanitarian and pacifist in an eighteenth century environment4 ,he was a born reformer1 and he devoted his life to the construction of schemes for increasing human happiness4 ,he introduced the word bienfaisance into the currency of the ,french language1 and beneficence was in his eyes the sovran virtue4 ,there were few departments of public affairs in which he did not point out the deficiencies and devise ingenious plans for improvement4 ,most of his numerous writings are projets--schemes of reform in government1 economics1 finance1 education1 all worked out in detail1 and all aiming at the increase of pleasure and the diminution of pain4 ,the ,abbe's nimble intelligence had a weak side1 which must have somewhat compromised his influence4 ,he was so confident in the reasonableness of his projects that he always believed that if they were fairly considered the ruling powers could not fail to adopt them in their own interests4 ,it is the nature of a reformer to be sanguine1 but the optimism of ,saint-,pierre touched naivete4 ,thousands might have agreed with his view that the celibacy of the ,catholic clergy was an unwholesome institution1 but when he drew up a proposal for its abolition and imagined that the ,pope1 unable to resist his arguments1 would immediately adopt it1 they might be excused for putting him down as a crank who could hardly be taken seriously4 ,the form in which he put forward his memorable scheme for the abolition of war exhibits the same sanguine simplicity4 ,all his plans1 ,rousseau observed1 showed a clear vision of what their effects would be1 but he judged like a child of means to bring them about4 ,but his abilities were great1 and his actual influence was considerable4 ,it would have been greater if he had possessed the gift of style4 #b4 ,he was not the first to plan a definite scheme for establishing a perpetual peace4 ,long ago ,emeric ,cruce had given to the world a proposal for a universal league1 including not only the ,christian nations of ,europe1 but the ,turks1 ,persians1 and ,tartars1 which by means of a court of arbitration sitting at ,venice should ensure the settlement of all disputes by peaceful means4 ,footnote3 ,le ,nouveau ,cynee 7,paris1 #afbc74 ,it has recently been reprinted with an ,english translation by ,t4 ,w4 ,balch1 ,philadelphia 7#aiji74 ,the consequence of universal peace1 he said1 will be the arrival of that beautiful century which the ancient theologians promise after there have rolled by six thousand years4 ,for they say that then the world will live happily and in repose4 ,now it happens that that time has nearly expired1 and even if it is not1 it depends only on the ,princes to give beforehand this happiness to their peoples4 ,later in the century1 others had ventilated similar projects in obscure publications1 but the ,abbe does not refer to any of his predecessors4 ,he was not blinded by the superficial brilliancy of the reign of ,louis ,,xiv4 to the general misery which the ambitious war-policy of that sovran brought both upon ,france and upon her enemies4 ,his ,annales politiques are a useful correction to the ,siecle de ,louis ,quatorze4 ,it was in the course of the great struggle of the ,spanish ,succession that he turned his attention to war and came to the conclusion that it is an unnecessary evil and even an absurdity4 ,in #agab he attended the congress at ,utrecht in the capacity of secretary to ,cardinal de ,polignac1 one of the ,french delegates4 ,his experiences there confirmed his optimistic mind in the persuasion that perpetual peace was an aim which might readily be realised2 and in the following year he published the memoir which he had been preparing1 in two volumes1 to which he added a third four years later4 ,though he appears not to have known the work of ,cruce he did not claim originality4 ,he sheltered his proposal under an august name1 entitling it ,project of ,henry the ,great to render ,peace ,perpetual1 explained by the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,the reference is to the great design ascribed to ,henry ,,iv4 by ,sully1 and aimed at the abasement of the power of ,austria3 a federation of the ,christian ,states of ,europe arranged in groups and under a sovran ,diet1 which would regulate international affairs and arbitrate in all quarrels4 ,footnote3 ,it is described in ,sully's ,memoires1 ,book ,,xxx4 ,saint-,pierre1 ignoring the fact that ,sully's object was to eliminate a rival power1 made it the text for his own scheme of a perpetual alliance of all the sovrans of ,europe to guarantee to one another the preservation of their states and to renounce war as a means of settling their differences4 ,he drew up the terms of such an alliance1 and taking the ,european powers one by one demonstrated that it was the plain interest of each to sign the articles4 ,once the articles were signed the golden age would begin4 ,footnote3 ,for ,sully's grand ,design compare the interesting article of ,sir ,geoffrey ,butler in the ,edinburgh ,review1 ,october #aiai4 ,it is not to our present purpose to comment on this plan which the author with his characteristic simplicity seriously pressed upon the attention of statesmen4 ,it is easy to criticise it in the light of subsequent history1 and to see that1 if the impossible had happened and the experiment had been tried and succeeded1 it might have caused more suffering than all the wars from that day to this4 ,for it was based on a perpetuation of the political status quo in ,europe4 ,it assumed that the existing political distribution of power was perfectly satisfactory and conformable to the best interests of all the peoples concerned4 ,it would have hindered the ,partition of ,poland1 but it would have maintained the ,austrian oppression of ,italians4 ,the project also secured to the sovrans the heritage of their authority and guarded against civil wars4 ,this assumed that the various existing constitutions were fundamentally just4 ,the realisation of the scheme would have perpetuated all the evils of autocratic governments4 ,its author did not perceive that the radical evil in ,france was irresponsible power4 ,it needed the reign of ,louis ,,xv4 and the failure of attempts at reform under his successor to bring this home4 ,the ,abbe even thought that an increase of the despotic authority of the government was desirable1 provided this were accompanied by an increase in the enlightenment and virtue of its ministers4 ,in #agbi he published an abridgment of his scheme1 and here he looks beyond its immediate results to its value for distant posterity4 ,no one1 he says1 can imagine or foresee the advantages which such an alliance of ,european states will yield to ,europe five hundred years after its establishment4 ,now we can see the first beginnings1 but it is beyond the powers of the human mind to discern its infinite effects in the future4 ,it may produce results more precious than anything hitherto experienced by man4 ,he supports his argument by observing that our primitive ancestors could not foresee the improvements which the course of ages would bring in their rudimentary arrangements for securing social order4 #c4 ,it is characteristic that the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre's ideas about ,progress were a by-product of his particular schemes4 ,in #aggc he published a ,project to ,perfect the ,government of ,states1 and here he sketched his view of the progressive course of civilisation4 ,the old legend of the golden age1 when men were perfectly happy1 succeeded by the ages of silver1 bronze1 and iron1 exactly reverses the truth of history4 ,the age of iron came first1 the infancy of society1 when men were poor and ignorant of the arts2 it is the present condition of the savages of ,africa and ,america4 ,the age of bronze ensued1 in which there was more security1 better laws1 and the invention of the most necessary arts began4 ,there followed the age of silver1 and ,europe has not yet emerged from it4 ,our reason has indeed reached the point of considering how war may be abolished1 and is thus approaching the golden age of the future2 but the art of government and the general regulation of society1 notwithstanding all the improvements of the past1 is still in its infancy4 ,yet all that is needed is a short series of wise reigns in our ,european states to reach the age of gold or1 in other words1 a paradise on earth4 ,a few wise reigns4 ,the ,abbe shared the illusion of many that government is omnipotent and can bestow happiness on men4 ,the imperfections of governments were1 he was convinced1 chiefly due to the fact that hitherto the ablest intellects had not been dedicated to the study of the science of governing4 ,the most essential part of his project was the formation of a ,political ,academy which should do for politics what the ,academy of ,sciences did for the study of nature1 and should act as an advisory body to ministers of state on all questions of the public welfare4 ,if this proposal and some others were adopted1 he believed that the golden age would not long be delayed4 ,these observations--hardly more than obiter dicta--show that ,saint-,pierre's general view of the world was moulded by a conception of civilisation progressing towards a goal of human happiness4 ,in #agcg he published a special work to explain this conception3 the ,observations on the ,continuous ,progress of ,universal ,reason4 ,he recurs to the comparison of the life of collective humanity to that of an individual1 and1 like ,fontenelle and ,terrasson1 accentuates the point where the analogy fails4 ,we may regard our race as composed of all the nations that have been and will be--and assign to it different ages4 ,for instance1 when the race is ten thousand years old a century will be what a single year is in the life of a centenarian4 ,but there is this prodigious difference4 ,the mortal man grows old and loses his reason and happiness through the enfeeblement of his bodily machine2 whereas the human race1 by the perpetual and infinite succession of generations1 will find itself at the end of ten thousand years more capable of growing in wisdom and happiness than it was at the end of four thousand4 ,at present the race is apparently not more than seven or eight thousand years old1 and is only in the infancy of human reason1 compared with what it will be five or six thousand years hence4 ,and when that stage is reached1 it will only have entered on what we may call its first youth1 when we consider what it will be when it is a hundred thousand years older still1 continually growing in reason and wisdom4 ,here we have for the first time1 expressed in definite terms1 the vista of an immensely long progressive life in front of humanity4 ,civilisation is only in its infancy4 ,bacon1 like ,pascal1 had conceived it to be in its old age4 ,fontenelle and ,perrault seem to have regarded it as in its virility2 they set no term to its duration1 but they did not dwell on future prospects4 ,the ,abbe was the first to fix his eye on the remote destinies of the race and name immense periods of time4 ,it did not occur to him to consider that our destinies are bound up with those of the solar system1 and that it is useless to operate with millennial periods of progress unless you are assured of a corresponding stability in the cosmic environment4 ,as a test of the progress which reason has already made1 ,saint-,pierre asserts that a comparison of the best ,english and ,french works on morals and politics with the best works of ,plato and ,aristotle proves that the human race has made a sensible advance4 ,but that advance would have been infinitely greater were it not that three general obstacles retarded it and even1 at some times and in some countries1 caused a retrogression4 ,these obstacles were wars1 superstition1 and the ,jealousy of rulers who feared that progress in the science of politics would be dangerous to themselves4 ,in consequence of these impediments it was only in the time of ,bodin and ,bacon that the human race began to start anew from the point which it had reached in the days of ,plato and ,aristotle4 ,since then the rate of progress has been accelerated1 and this has been due to several causes4 ,the expansion of sea commerce has produced more wealth1 and wealth means greater leisure1 and more writers and readers4 ,in the second place1 mathematics and physics are more studied in colleges1 and their tendency is to liberate us from subjection to the authority of the ancients4 ,again1 the foundation of scientific ,academies has given facilities both for communicating and for correcting new discoveries2 the art of printing provides a means for diffusing them2 and1 finally1 the habit of writing in the vulgar tongue makes them accessible4 ,the author might also have referred to the modern efforts to popularise science1 in which his friend ,fontenelle had been one of the leaders4 ,he proceeds1 in this connection1 to lay down a rather doubtful principle1 that in any two countries the difference in enlightenment between the lowest classes will correspond to the difference between the most highly educated classes4 ,at present1 he says1 ,paris and ,london are the places where human wisdom has reached the most advanced stage4 ,it is certain that the ten best men of the highest class at ,ispahan or ,constantinople will be inferior in their knowledge of politics and ethics to the ten most distinguished sages of ,paris or ,london4 ,and this will be true in all classes4 ,the thirty most intelligent children of the age of fourteen at ,paris will be more enlightened than the thirty most intelligent children of the same age at ,constantinople1 and the same proportional difference will be true of the lowest classes of the two cities4 ,but while the progress of speculative reason has been rapid1 practical reason--the distinction is the ,abbe's--has made little advance4 ,in point of morals and general happiness the world is apparently much the same as ever4 ,our mediocre savants know twenty times as much as ,socrates and ,confucius1 but our most virtuous men are not more virtuous than they4 ,the growth of science has added much to the arts and conveniences of life1 and to the sum of pleasures1 and will add more4 ,the progress in physical science is part of the progress of the universal human reason1 whose aim is the augmentation of our happiness4 ,but there are two other sciences which are much more important for the promotion of happiness--,ethics and ,politics--and these1 neglected by men of genius1 have made little way in the course of two thousand years4 ,it is a grave misfortune that ,descartes and ,newton did not devote themselves to perfecting these sciences1 so incomparably more useful for mankind than those in which they made their great discoveries4 ,they fell into a prevailing error as to the comparative values of the various domains of knowledge1 an error to which we must also ascribe the fact that while ,academies of ,sciences and ,belles-,lettres exist there are no such institutions for ,politics or ,ethics4 ,by these arguments he establishes to his own satisfaction that there are no irremovable obstacles to the ,progress of the human race towards happiness1 no hindrances that could not be overcome if governments only saw eye to eye with the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,superstition is already on the decline2 there would be no more wars if his simple scheme for permanent peace were adopted4 ,let the ,state immediately found ,political and ,ethical ,academies2 let the ablest men consecrate their talents to the science of government2 and in a hundred years we shall make more progress than we should make in two thousand at the rate we are moving4 ,if these things are done1 human reason will have advanced so far in two or three millenniums that the wisest men of that age will be as far superior to the wisest of to-day as these are to the wisest ,african savages4 ,this perpetual and unlimited augmentation of reason will one day produce an increase in human happiness which would astonish us more than our own civilisation would astonish the ,kaffirs4 #d4 ,the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre was indeed terribly at ease in confronting the deepest and most complex problems which challenge the intellect of man4 ,he had no notion of their depth and complexity1 and he lightly essayed them1 treating human nature1 as if it were an abstraction1 by a method which he would doubtless have described as ,cartesian4 ,he was simply operating with the ideas which were all round him in a society saturated with ,cartesianism1--supremacy of human reason1 progressive enlightenment1 the value of this life for its own sake1 and the standard of utility4 ,given these ideas and the particular bias of his own mind1 it required no great ingenuity to advance from the thought of the progress of science to the thought of progress in man's moral nature and his social conditions4 ,the omnipotence of governments to mould the destinies of peoples1 the possibility of the creation of enlightened governments1 and the indefinite progress of enlightenment--all articles of his belief--were the terms of an argument of the sorites form1 which it was a simple matter to develop in his brief treatise4 ,but we must not do him injustice4 ,he was a much more considerable thinker than posterity for a long time was willing to believe4 ,it is easy to ridicule some of his projets1 and dismiss him as a crank who was also somewhat of a bore4 ,the truth1 however1 is that many of his schemes were sound and valuable4 ,his economic ideas1 which he thought out for himself1 were in advance of his time1 and he has even been described by a recent writer as un contemporain egare au xviii siecle4 ,some of his financial proposals were put into practice by ,turgot4 ,but his significance in the development of the revolutionary ideas which were to gain control in the second half of the eighteenth century has hardly been appreciated yet1 and it was imperfectly appreciated by his contemporaries4 ,it is easy to see why4 ,his theories are buried in his multitudinous projets4 ,if1 instead of working out the details of endless particular reforms1 he had built up general theories of government and society1 economics and education1 they might have had no more intrinsic value1 but he would have been recognised as the precursor of the ,encyclopaedists4 ,for his principles are theirs4 ,the omnipotence of government and laws to mould the morals of peoples2 the subordination of all knowledge to the goddess of utility2 the deification of human reason2 and the doctrine of ,progress4 ,his crude utilitarianism led him to depreciate the study of mathematical and physical sciences--notwithstanding his veneration for ,descartes--as comparatively useless1 and he despised the fine arts as waste of time and toil which might be better spent4 ,he had no knowledge of natural science and he had no artistic susceptibility4 ,the philosophers of the ,encyclopaedia did not go so far1 but they tended in this direction4 ,they were cold and indifferent towards speculative science1 and they were inclined to set higher value on artisans than on artists4 ,in his religious ideas the ,abbe differed from ,voltaire and the later social philosophers in one important respect1 but this very difference was a consequence of his utilitarianism4 ,like them he was a ,deist1 as we saw2 he had imbibed the spirit of ,bayle and the doctrine of the ,english rationalists1 which were penetrating ,french society during the later part of his life4 ,his ,god1 however1 was more than the creator and organiser of the ,encyclopaedists1 he was also the ,dieu vengeur et remunerateur in whom ,voltaire believed4 ,but here his faith was larger than ,voltaire's4 ,for while ,voltaire referred the punishments and rewards to this life1 the ,abbe believed in the immortality of the soul1 in heaven and hell4 ,he acknowledged that immortality could not be demonstrated1 that it was only probable1 but he clung to it firmly and even intolerantly4 ,it is clear from his writings that his affection for this doctrine was due to its utility1 as an auxiliary to the magistrate and the tutor1 and also to the consideration that ,paradise would add to the total of human happiness4 ,but though his religion had more articles1 he was as determined a foe of superstition as ,voltaire1 ,diderot1 and the rest4 ,he did not go so far as they in aggressive rationalism--he belonged to an older generation--but his principles were the same4 ,the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre thus represents the transition from the earlier ,cartesianism1 which was occupied with purely intellectual problems1 to the later thought of the eighteenth century1 which concentrated itself on social problems4 ,he anticipated the humanistic spirit of the ,encyclopaedists1 who were to make man1 in a new sense1 the centre of the world4 ,he originated1 or at least was the first to proclaim1 the new creed of man's destinies1 indefinite social progress4 ,,chapter ,,vii4 ,,new ,,conceptions ,,of ,,history3 ,,montesquieu1 ,,voltaire1 ,,turgot ,the theory of human ,progress could not be durably established by abstract arguments1 or on the slender foundations laid by the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,it must ultimately be judged by the evidence afforded by history1 and it is not accidental that1 contemporaneously with the advent of this idea1 the study of history underwent a revolution4 ,if ,progress was to be more than the sanguine dream of an optimist it must be shown that man's career on earth had not been a chapter of accidents which might lead anywhere or nowhere1 but is subject to discoverable laws which have determined its general route1 and will secure his arrival at the desirable place4 ,hitherto a certain order and unity had been found in history by the ,christian theory of providential design and final causes4 ,new principles of order and unity were needed to replace the principles which rationalism had discredited4 ,just as the advance of science depended on the postulate that physical phenomena are subject to invariable laws1 so if any conclusions were to be drawn from history some similar postulate as to social phenomena was required4 ,it was thus in harmony with the general movement of thought that about the middle of the eighteenth century new lines of investigation were opened leading to sociology1 the history of civilisation1 and the philosophy of history4 ,montesquieu's ,de l'esprit des lois1 which may claim to be the parent work of modern social science1 ,voltaire's ,essai sur les moeurs1 and ,turgot's plan of a ,histoire universelle begin a new era in man's vision of the past4 #a4 ,montesquieu was not among the apostles of the idea of ,progress4 ,it never secured any hold upon his mind4 ,but he had grown up in the same intellectual climate in which that idea was produced2 he had been nurtured both on the dissolving1 dialectic of ,bayle1 and on the ,cartesian enunciation of natural law4 ,and his work contributed to the service1 not of the doctrine of the past1 but of the doctrine of the future4 ,for he attempted to extend the ,cartesian theory to social facts4 ,he laid down that political1 like physical1 phenomena are subject to general laws4 ,he had already conceived this1 his most striking and important idea1 when he wrote the ,considerations on the ,greatness and ,decadence of the ,romans 7#agcd71 in which he attempted to apply it3 ,it is not ,fortune who governs the world1 as we see from the history of the ,romans4 ,there are general causes1 moral or physical1 which operate in every monarchy1 raise it1 maintain it1 or overthrow it2 all that occurs is subject to these causes2 and if a particular cause1 like the accidental result of a battle1 has ruined a state1 there was a general cause which made the downfall of this state ensue from a single battle4 ,in a word1 the principal movement 7l'allure principale7 draws with it all the particular occurrences4 ,but if this excludes ,fortune it also dispenses with ,providence1 design1 and final causes2 and one of the effects of the ,considerations which ,montesquieu cannot have overlooked was to discredit ,bossuet's treatment of history4 ,the ,esprit des lois appeared fourteen years later4 ,among books which have exercised a considerable influence on thought few are more disappointing to a modern reader4 ,the author had not the gift of what might be called logical architecture1 and his work produces the effect of a collection of ideas which he was unable to co-ordinate in the clarity of a system4 ,a new principle1 the operation of general causes1 is enthroned2 but1 beyond the obvious distinction of physical and moral1 they are not classified4 ,we have no guarantee that the moral causes are fully enumerated1 and those which are original are not distinguished from those which are derived4 ,the general cause which ,montesquieu impresses most clearly on the reader's mind is that of physical environment--geography and climate4 ,the influence of climate on civilisation was not a new idea4 ,in modern times1 as we have seen1 it was noticed by ,bodin and recognised by ,fontenelle4 ,the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre applied it to explain the origin of the ,mohammedan religion1 and the ,abbe ,du ,bos in his ,reflexions on ,poetry and ,painting maintained that climate helps to determine the epochs of art and science4 ,chardin in his ,travels1 a book which ,montesquieu studied1 had also appreciated its importance4 ,but ,montesquieu drew general attention to it1 and since he wrote1 geographical conditions have been recognised by all inquirers as an influential factor in the development of human societies4 ,his own discussion of the question did not result in any useful conclusions4 ,he did not determine the limits of the action of physical conditions1 and a reader hardly knows whether to regard them as fundamental or accessory1 as determining the course of civilisation or only perturbing it4 ,several things govern men1 he says1 climate1 religion1 laws1 precepts of government1 historical examples1 morals1 and manners1 whence is formed as their result a general mind 7esprit general74 ,this co-ordination of climate with products of social life is characteristic of his unsystematic thought4 ,but the remark which the author went on to make1 that there is always a correlation between the laws of a people and its esprit general1 was important4 ,it pointed to the theory that all the products of social life are closely interrelated4 ,in ,montesquieu's time people were under the illusion that legislation has an almost unlimited power to modify social conditions4 ,we have seen this in the case of ,saint-,pierre4 ,montesquieu's conception of general laws should have been an antidote to this belief4 ,it had however less effect on his contemporaries than we might have expected1 and they found more to their purpose in what he said of the influence of laws on manners4 ,there may be something in ,comte's suggestion that he could not give his conception any real consistency or vigour1 just because he was himself unconsciously under the influence of excessive faith in the effects of legislative action4 ,a fundamental defect in ,montesquieu's treatment of social phenomena is that he abstracted them from their relations in time4 ,it was his merit to attempt to explain the correlation of laws and institutions with historical circumstances1 but he did not distinguish or connect stages of civilisation4 ,he was inclined to confound1 as ,sorel has observed1 all periods and constitutions4 ,whatever be the value of the idea of ,progress1 we may agree with ,comte that1 if ,montesquieu had grasped it1 he would have produced a more striking work4 ,his book announces a revolution in the study of political science1 but in many ways belongs itself to the pre-,montesquieu era4 #b4 ,in the same years in which ,montesquieu was busy on the composition of the ,esprit des lois1 ,voltaire was writing his ,age of ,louis ,,xiv4 and his ,essay on the ,manners and ,mind of ,nations1 and on the ,principal ,facts of ,history from ,charlemagne to the ,death of ,louis ,,xiii4 ,the former work1 which everybody reads still1 appeared in #agea4 ,parts of the ,essay1 which has long since fallen into neglect1 were published in the ,mercure de ,france between #agde and #agea2 it was issued complete in #agef1 along with the ,age of ,louis ,,xiv41 which was its continuation4 ,if we add the ,precis of the ,reign of ,louis ,,xv4 7#agfi71 and observe that the ,introduction and first fourteen chapters of the ,essay sketch the history of the world before ,charlemagne1 and that ,china1 ,india1 and ,america are included in the survey1 ,voltaire's work amounts to a complete survey of the civilisation of the world from the earliest times to his own4 ,if ,montesquieu founded social science1 ,voltaire created the history of civilisation1 and the ,essay1 for all its limitations1 stands out as one of the considerable books of the century4 ,in his ,age of ,louis ,,xiv4 he announced that his object was to paint not the actions of a single man1 but the mind of men 7l'esprit des hommes7 in the most enlightened age that had ever been1 and that the progress of the arts and sciences was an essential part of his subject4 ,in the same way he proposed in the ,essay to trace l'histoire de l'esprit humain1 not the details of facts1 and to show by what steps man advanced from the barbarous rusticity of the times of ,charlemagne and his successors to the politeness of our own4 ,to do this1 he said1 was really to write the history of opinion1 for all the great successive social and political changes which have transformed the world were due to changes of opinion4 ,prejudice succeeded prejudice1 error followed error2 at last1 with time men came to correct their ideas and learn to think4 ,the motif of the book is1 briefly1 that wars and religions have been the great obstacles to the progress of humanity1 and that if they were abolished1 with the prejudices which engender them1 the world would rapidly improve4 ,we may believe1 he says1 that reason and industry will always progress more and more2 that the useful arts will be improved2 that of the evils which have afflicted men1 prejudices1 which are not their least scourge1 will gradually disappear among all those who govern nations1 and that philosophy1 universally diffused1 will give some consolation to human nature for the calamities which it will experience in all ages4 ,this indeed is not the tone of the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,voltaire's optimism was always tempered with cynicism4 ,but the idea of ,progress is there1 though moderately conceived4 ,and it is based on the same principle--universal reason implanted in man1 which subsists in spite of all the passions which make war on it1 in spite of all the tyrants who would drown it in blood1 in spite of the imposters who would annihilate it by superstition4 ,and this was certainly his considered view4 ,his common sense prevented him from indulging in ,utopian speculations about the future2 and his cynicism constantly led him to use the language of a pessimist4 ,but at an early stage of his career he had taken up arms for human nature against that sublime misanthrope ,pascal1 who writes against human nature almost as he wrote against the ,jesuits2 and he returned to the attack at the end of his life4 ,now ,pascal's ,pensees enshrined a theory of life--the doctrine of original sin1 the idea that the object of life is to prepare for death--which was sternly opposed to the spirit of ,progress4 ,voltaire instinctively felt that this was an enemy that had to be dealt with4 ,in a lighter vein he had maintained in a well-known poem1 ,le ,mondain1 ,footnote3 #agef4 the value of civilisation and all its effects1 including luxury1 against those who regretted the simplicity of ancient times1 the golden age of ,saturn4 ,o le bon temps que ce siecle de fer6 ,life in ,paris1 ,london1 or ,rome to-day is infinitely preferable to life in the garden of ,eden4 ,d'un bon vin frais ou la mousse ou la seve ,ne gratta point le triste gosier d',eve4 ,la soie et l'or ne brillaient point chez eux4 ,admirez-vous pour cela nos aieux8 ,il leur manquait l'industrie et l'aisance3 ,est-ce vertu8 c'etait pure ignorance4 ,to return to the ,essay1 it flung down the gage of battle to that conception of the history of the world which had been brilliantly represented by ,bossuet's ,discours sur l'histoire universelle4 ,this work was constantly in ,voltaire's mind4 ,he pointed out that it had no claim to be universal2 it related only to four or five peoples1 and especially the little ,jewish nation which was unknown to the rest of the world or justly despised1 but which ,bossuet made the centre of interest1 as if the final cause of all the great empires of antiquity lay in their relations to the ,jews4 ,he had ,bossuet in mind when he said we will speak of the ,jews as we would speak of ,scythians or ,greeks1 weighing probabilities and discussing facts4 ,in his new perspective the significance of ,hebrew history is for the first time reduced to moderate limits4 ,but it was not only in this particular1 though central1 point that ,voltaire challenged ,bossuet's view4 ,he eliminated final causes altogether1 and ,providence plays no part on his historical stage4 ,here his work reinforced the teaching of ,montesquieu4 ,otherwise ,montesquieu and ,voltaire entirely differed in their methods4 ,voltaire concerned himself only with the causal enchainment of events and the immediate motives of men4 ,his interpretation of history was confined to the discovery of particular causes2 he did not consider the operation of those larger general causes which ,montesquieu investigated4 ,montesquieu sought to show that the vicissitudes of societies were subject to law2 ,voltaire believed that events were determined by chance where they were not consciously guided by human reason4 ,the element of chance is conspicuous even in legislation3 almost all laws have been instituted to meet passing needs1 like remedies applied fortuitously1 which have cured one patient and kill others4 ,on ,voltaire's theory1 the development of humanity might at any moment have been diverted into a different course2 but whatever course it took the nature of human reason would have ensured a progress in civilisation4 ,yet the reader of the ,essay and ,louis ,,xiv4 might well have come away with a feeling that the security of ,progress is frail and precarious4 ,if fortune has governed events1 if the rise and fall of empires1 the succession of religions1 the revolutions of states1 and most of the great crises of history were decided by accidents1 is there any cogent ground for believing that human reason1 the principle to which ,voltaire attributes the advance of civilisation1 will prevail in the long run8 ,civilisation has been organised here and there1 now and then1 up to a certain point2 there have been eras of rapid progress1 but how can we be sure that these are not episodes1 themselves also fortuitous8 ,for growth has been followed by decay1 progress by regress2 can it be said that history1 authorises the conclusion that reason will ever gain such an ascendancy that the play of chance will no longer be able to thwart her will8 ,is such a conclusion more than a hope1 unsanctioned by the data of past experience1 merely one of the characteristics of the age of illumination8 ,voltaire and ,montesquieu thus raised fundamental questions of great moment for the doctrine of ,progress1 questions which belong to what was soon to be known as the ,philosophy of ,history1 a name invented by ,voltaire1 though hardly meant by him in the sense which it afterwards assumed4 #c4 ,six years before ,voltaire's ,essay was published in its complete form a young man was planning a work on the same subject4 ,turgot is honourably remembered as an economist and administrator1 but if he had ever written the ,discourses on ,universal ,history which he designed at the age of twenty-three his position in historical literature might have overshadowed his other claims to be remembered4 ,we possess a partial sketch of its plan1 which is supplemented by two lectures he delivered at the ,sorbonne in #agej2 so that we know his general conceptions4 ,he had assimilated the ideas of the ,esprit des lois1 and it is probable that he had read the parts of ,voltaire's work which had appeared in a periodical4 ,his work1 like ,voltaire's1 was to be a challenge to ,bossuet's view of history2 his purpose was to trace the fortunes of the race in the light of the idea of ,progress4 ,he occasionally refers to ,providence but this is no more than a prudent lip-service4 ,providence has no functions in his scheme4 ,the part which it played in ,bossuet is usurped by those general causes which he had learned from ,montesquieu4 ,but his systematic mind would have organised and classified the ideas which ,montesquieu left somewhat confused4 ,he criticised the inductions drawn in the ,esprit des lois concerning the influence of climate as hasty and exaggerated2 and he pointed out that the physical causes can only produce their effects by acting on the hidden principles which contribute to form our mind and character4 ,it follows that the psychical or moral causes are the first element to consider1 and it is a fault of method to try to evaluate physical causes till we have exhausted the moral1 and are certain that the phenomena cannot be explained by these alone4 ,in other words1 the study of the development of societies must be based on psychology2 and for ,turgot1 as for all his progressive contemporaries1 psychology meant the philosophy of ,locke4 ,general necessary causes1 therefore1 which we should rather call conditions1 have determined the course of history--the nature of man1 his passions1 and his reason1 in the first place2 and in the second1 his environment1--geography and climate4 ,but its course is a strict sequence of particular causes and effects1 which bind the state of the world 7at a given moment7 to all those which have preceded it4 ,turgot does not discuss the question of free-will1 but his causal continuity does not exclude the free action of great men4 ,he conceives universal history as the progress of the human race advancing as an immense whole steadily1 though slowly1 through alternating periods of calm and disturbance towards greater perfection4 ,the various units of the entire mass do not move with equal steps1 because nature is not impartial with her gifts4 ,some men have talents denied to others1 and the gifts of nature are sometimes developed by circumstances1 sometimes left buried in obscurity4 ,the inequalities in the march of nations are due to the infinite variety of circumstances2 and these inequalities may be taken to prove that the world had a beginning1 for in an eternal duration they would have disappeared4 ,but the development of human societies has not been guided by human reason4 ,men have not consciously made general happiness the end of their actions4 ,they have been conducted by passion and ambition and have never known to what goal they were moving4 ,for if reason had presided1 progress would soon have been arrested4 ,to avoid war peoples would have remained in isolation1 and the race would have lived divided for ever into a multitude of isolated groups1 speaking different tongues4 ,all these groups would have been limited in the range of their ideas1 stationary in science1 art1 and government1 and would never have risen above mediocrity4 ,the history of ,china is an example of the results of restricted intercourse among peoples4 ,thus the unexpected conclusion emerges1 that without unreason and injustice there would have been no progress4 ,it is hardly necessary to observe that this argument is untenable4 ,the hypothesis assumes that reason is in control among the primitive peoples1 and at the same time supposes that its power would completely disappear if they attempted to engage in peaceful intercourse4 ,but though ,turgot has put his point in an unconvincing form1 his purpose was to show that as a matter of fact the tumultuous and dangerous passions have been driving-forces which have moved the world in a desirable direction till the time should come for reason to take the helm4 ,thus1 while ,turgot might have subscribed to ,voltaire's assertion that history is largely un ramas de crimes1 de folies1 et de malheurs1 his view of the significance of man's sufferings is different and almost approaches the facile optimism of ,pope--whatever is1 is right4 ,he regards all the race's actual experiences as the indispensable mechanism of ,progress1 and does not regret its mistakes and calamities4 ,many changes and revolutions1 he observes1 may seem to have had most mischievous effects2 yet every change has brought some advantage1 for it has been a new experience and therefore has been instructive4 ,man advances by committing errors4 ,the history of science shows 7as ,fontenelle had pointed out7 that truth is reached over the ruins of false hypotheses4 ,the difficulty presented by periods of decadence and barbarism succeeding epochs of enlightenment is met by the assertion that in such dark times the world has not stood still2 there has really been a progression which1 though relatively inconspicuous1 is not unimportant4 ,in the ,middle ,ages1 which are the prominent case1 there were improvements in mechanical arts1 in commerce1 in some of the habits of civil life1 all of which helped to prepare the way for happier times4 ,here ,turgot's view of history is sharply opposed to ,voltaire's4 ,he considers ,christianity to have been a powerful agent of civilisation1 not a hinderer or an enemy4 ,had he executed his design1 his work might well have furnished a notable makeweight to the view held by ,voltaire1 and afterwards more judicially developed by ,gibbon1 that the triumph of barbarism and religion was a calamity for the world4 ,turgot also propounded two laws of development4 ,he observed that when a people is progressing1 every step it takes causes an acceleration in the rate of progress4 ,and he anticipated ,comte's famous law of the three stages of intellectual evolution1 though without giving it the extensive and fundamental significance which ,comte claimed for it4 ,before man understood the causal connection of physical phenomena1 nothing was so natural as to suppose they were produced by intelligent beings1 invisible and resembling ourselves2 for what else would they have resembled8 ,that is ,comte's theological stage4 ,when philosophers recognised the absurdity of the fables about the gods1 but had not yet gained an insight into natural history1 they thought to explain the causes of phenomena by abstract expressions such as essences and faculties4 ,that is the metaphysical stage4 ,it was only at a later period1 that by observing the reciprocal mechanical action of bodies hypotheses were formed which could be developed by mathematics and verified by experience4 ,there is the positive stage4 ,the observation assuredly does not possess the far-reaching importance which ,comte attached to it2 but whatever value it has1 ,turgot deserves the credit of having been the first to state it4 ,the notes which ,turgot made for his plan permit us to conjecture that his ,universal ,history would have been a greater and more profound work than the ,essay of ,voltaire4 ,it would have embodied in a digested form the ideas of ,montesquieu to which ,voltaire paid little attention1 and the author would have elaborated the intimate connection and mutual interaction among all social phenomena--government and morals1 religion1 science1 and arts4 ,while his general thesis coincided with that of ,voltaire--the gradual advance of humanity towards a state of enlightenment and reasonableness1--he made the idea of ,progress more vital2 for him it was an organising conception1 just as the idea of ,providence was for ,st4 ,augustine and ,bossuet an organising conception1 which gave history its unity and meaning4 ,the view that man has throughout been blindly moving in the right direction is the counterpart of what ,bossuet represented as a divine plan wrought out by the actions of men who are ignorant of it1 and is sharply opposed to the views1 of ,voltaire and the other philosophers of the day who ascribed ,progress exclusively to human reason consciously striving against ignorance and passion4 ,,chapter ,,viii4 ,,the ,,encyclopaedists ,,and ,,economists #a4 ,the intellectual movement which prepared ,french opinion for the ,revolution and supplied the principles for reconstituting society may be described as humanistic in the sense that man was the centre of speculative interest4 ,one consideration especially that we ought never to lose from sight1 says ,diderot1 is that1 if we ever banish a man1 or the thinking and contemplative being1 from above the surface of the earth1 this pathetic and sublime spectacle of nature becomes no more than a scene of melancholy and silence444 ,it is the presence of man that gives its interest to the existence of other beings444 ,why should we not make him a common centre8444 ,man is the single term from which we ought to set out4 ,footnote3 ,the passage from ,diderot's article ,encyclopedie is given as translated by ,morley1 ,diderot1 i1 #ade4 ,hence psychology1 morals1 the structure of society1 were the subjects which riveted attention instead of the larger supra-human problems which had occupied ,descartes1 ,malebranche1 and ,leibnitz4 ,it mattered little whether the universe was the best that could be constructed2 what mattered was the relation of man's own little world to his will and capacities4 ,physical science was important only in so far as it could help social science and minister to the needs of man4 ,the closest analogy to this development of thought is not offered by the ,renaissance1 to which the description ,,humanistic has been conventionally appropriated1 but rather by the age of illumination in ,greece in the latter half of the fifth century ,b4,c41 represented by ,protagoras1 ,socrates1 and others who turned from the ultimate problems of the cosmos1 hitherto the main study of philosophers1 to man1 his nature and his works4 ,in this revised form of anthropo-centrism we see how the general movement of thought has instinctively adapted itself to the astronomical revolution4 ,on the ,ptolemaic system it was not incongruous or absurd that man1 lord of the central domain in the universe1 should regard himself as the most important cosmic creature4 ,this is the view1 implicit in the ,christian scheme1 which had been constructed on the old erroneous cosmology4 ,when the true place of the earth was shown and man found himself in a tiny planet attached to one of innumerable solar worlds1 his cosmic importance could no longer be maintained4 ,he was reduced to the condition of an insect creeping on a tas de boue1 which ,voltaire so vividly illustrated in ,micromegas4 ,but man is resourceful2 words in ,greek4 ,displaced1 along with his home1 from the centre of things1 he discovers a new means of restoring his self-importance2 he interprets his humiliation as a deliverance4 ,finding himself in an insignificant island floating in the immensity of space1 he decides that he is at last master of his own destinies2 he can fling away the old equipment of final causes1 original sin1 and the rest2 he can construct his own chart and1 bound by no cosmic scheme1 he need take the universe into account only in so far as he judges it to be to his own profit4 ,or1 if he is a philosopher1 he may say that1 after all1 the universe for him is built out of his own sensations1 and that by virtue of this relativity anthropo-centrism is restored in a new and more effective form4 ,built out of his own sensations3 for the philosophy of ,locke was now triumphant in ,france4 ,i have used the term ,cartesianism to designate1 not the metaphysical doctrines of ,descartes 7innate ideas1 two substances1 and the rest71 but the great principles which survived the passing of his metaphysical system--the supremacy of reason1 and the immutability of natural laws1 not subject to providential interventions4 ,these principles still controlled thought1 but the particular views of ,descartes on mental phenomena were superseded in ,france by the psychology of ,locke1 whose influence was established by ,voltaire and ,condillac4 ,the doctrine that all our ideas are derived from the senses lay at the root of the whole theory of man and society1 in the light of which the revolutionary thinkers1 ,diderot1 ,helvetius1 and their fellows1 criticised the existing order and exposed the reigning prejudices4 ,this sensationalism 7which went beyond what ,locke himself had really meant7 involved the strict relativity of knowledge and led at once to the old pragmatic doctrine of ,protagoras1 that man is the measure of all things4 ,and the spirit of the ,french philosophers of the eighteenth century was distinctly pragmatic4 ,the advantage of man was their principle1 and the value of speculation was judged by its definite service to humanity4 ,the value and rights of truth are founded on its utility1 which is the unique measure of man's judgements1 one thinker asserts2 another declares that the useful circumscribes everything1 l'utile circonscrit tout2 another lays down that to be virtuous is to be useful2 to be vicious is to be useless or harmful2 that is the sum of morality4 ,helvetius1 anticipating ,bentham1 works out the theory that utility is the only possible basis of ethics4 ,bacon1 the utilitarian1 was extolled like ,locke4 ,footnote3 ,the passages quoted on utility are from d',holbach1 ,systems de la nature1 i4 c4 #ab1 p4 #bbd2 c4 #ae1 p4 #cab2 ,diderot1 ,de ,i'interpretation de la nature in ,o,euvres1 ii4 p4 #ac2 ,raynal1 ,histoire des deux ,indes1 vii4 p4 #daf4 ,the effectiveness of the teaching may be illustrated from the ,essay on ,man1 by ,antoine ,rivarol1 whom ,burke called the ,tacitus of the ,revolution4 ,the virtues are only virtues because they are useful to the human race4 ,o,euvres choisis 7ed4 de ,lescure71 i4 p4 #baa4 ,as1 a hundred years before1 his influence had inspired the foundation of the ,royal ,society1 so now his name was invoked by the founders of the ,encyclopaedia4 ,footnote3 ,see d',alembert's tribute to him in the ,discours preliminaire4 ,beneath all philosophical speculation there is an undercurrent of emotion1 and in the ,french philosophers of the eighteenth century this emotional force was strong and even violent4 ,they aimed at practical results4 ,their work was a calculated campaign to transform the principles and the spirit of governments and to destroy sacerdotalism4 ,the problem for the human race being to reach a state of felicity by its own powers1 these thinkers believed that it was soluble by the gradual triumph of reason over prejudice and knowledge over ignorance4 ,violent revolution was far from their thoughts2 by the diffusion of knowledge they hoped to create a public opinion which would compel governments to change the tenor of their laws and administration and make the happiness of the people their guiding principle4 ,the optimistic confidence that man is perfectible1 which means capable of indefinite improvement1 inspired the movement as a whole1 however greatly particular thinkers might differ in their views4 ,belief in ,progress was their sustaining faith1 although1 occupied by the immediate problems of amelioration1 they left it rather vague and ill-defined4 ,the word itself is seldom pronounced in their writings4 ,the idea is treated as subordinate to the other ideas in the midst of which it had grown up3 ,reason1 ,nature1 ,humanity1 ,illumination 7lumieres74 ,it has not yet entered upon an independent life of its own and received a distinct label1 though it is already a vital force4 ,in reviewing the influences which were forming a new public opinion during the forty years before the ,revolution1 it is convenient for the present purpose to group together the thinkers 7including ,voltaire7 associated with the ,encyclopaedia1 who represented a critical and consciously aggressive force against traditional theories and existing institutions4 ,the constructive thinker ,rousseau was not less aggressive1 but he stands apart and opposed1 by his hostility to modern civilisation4 ,thirdly1 we must distinguish the school of ,economists1 also reformers and optimists1 but of more conservative temper than the typical ,encyclopaedists4 #b4 ,the ,encyclopaedia 7#agea-agfe7 has rightly been pronounced the central work of the rationalistic movement which made the ,france of #aghi so different from the ,france of #agae4 ,footnote3 ,the general views which governed the work may be gathered from d',alembert's introductory discourse and from ,diderot's article ,encyclopedie4 ,an interesting sketch of the principal contributors will be found in ,morley's ,diderot1 i4 chap4 v4 ,another modern study of the ,encyclopaedic movement is the monograph of ,l4 ,ducros1 ,les ,encyclopidistes 7#aijj74 ,helvetius has recently been the subject of a study by ,albert ,keim 7,helvetius1 sa vie et son oeuvre1 #aijg74 ,among other works which help the study of the speculations of this age from various points of view may be mentioned3 ,marius ,roustan1 ,les ,philosophes et la societe francaise au xviii siecle7#aijf72 ,espinas1 ,la ,philosophie sociale du xviii siecle et la ,revolution 7#ahih72 ,lichtenberger1 ,le ,socialisme au xviii siecle7#ahie74 ,i have not mentioned in the text ,boullanger 7#agbb-ageh71 who contributed to the ,encyclopaedia the article on ,political ,economy 7which has nothing to do with economics but treats of ancient theocracies72 the emphasis laid on his views on progress by ,buchez 7op4 cit4 i4 ,,iii sqq47 is quite excessive4 ,it was the organised section of a vast propaganda1 speculative and practical1 carried on by men of the most various views1 most of whom were associated directly with it4 ,as has well been observed1 it did for the rationalism of the eighteenth century in ,france much what the ,fortnightly ,review1 under the editorship of ,mr4 ,morley 7from #ahfh to #ahhb7 did for that of the nineteenth in ,england1 as an organ for the penetrating criticism of traditional beliefs4 ,if ,diderot1 who directed the ,encyclopaedia with the assistance of d',alembert the mathematician1 had lived a hundred years later he would probably have edited a journal4 ,we saw that the solidarity of the sciences was one of the conceptions associated with the theory of intellectual progress1 and that the popularisation of knowledge was another4 ,both these conceptions inspired the ,encyclopaedia1 which was to gather up and concentrate the illumination of the modern age4 ,it was to establish the lines of communication among all departments1 to enclose in the unity of a system the infinitely various branches of knowledge4 ,and it was to be a library of popular instruction4 ,but it was also intended to be an organ of propaganda4 ,in the history of the intellectual revolution it is in some ways the successor of the ,dictionary of ,bayle1 which1 two generations before1 collected the material of war to demolish traditional doctrines4 ,the ,encyclopaedia carried on the campaign against authority and superstition by indirect methods1 but it was the work of men who were not sceptics like ,bayle1 but had ideals1 positive purposes1 and social hopes4 ,they were not only confident in reason and in science1 but most of them had also a more or less definite belief in the possibility of an advance of humanity towards perfection4 ,as one of their own band afterwards remarked1 they were less occupied in enlarging the bounds of knowledge than in spreading the light and making war on prejudice4 ,footnote3 ,condorcet1 ,esquisse1 p4 #bjf 7ed4 #ahbb74 ,the views of the individual contributors differed greatly1 and they cannot be called a school1 but they agreed so far in common tendencies that they were able to form a co-operative alliance4 ,the propaganda of which the ,encyclopaedia was the centre was reinforced by the independent publications of some of the leading men who collaborated or were closely connected with their circle1 notably those of ,diderot himself1 ,baron d',holbach1 and ,helvetius4 #c4 ,the optimism of the ,encyclopaedists was really based on an intense consciousness of the enlightenment of their own age4 ,the progressiveness of knowledge was taken as axiomatic1 but was there any guarantee that the light1 now confined to small circles1 could ever enlighten the world and regenerate mankind8 ,they found the guarantee they required1 not in an induction from the past experience of the race1 but in an a priori theory3 the indefinite malleability of human nature by education and institutions4 ,this had been1 as we saw1 assumed by the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,it pervaded the speculation of the age1 and was formally deduced from the sensational psychology of ,locke and ,condillac4 ,it was developed1 in an extreme form1 in the work of ,helvetius1 ,de l'esprit 7#ageh74 ,in this book1 which was to exert a large influence in ,england1 ,helvetius sought1 among other things1 to show that the science of morals is equivalent to the science of legislation1 and that in a well-organised society all men are capable of rising to the highest point of mental development4 ,intellectual and moral inequalities between man and man arise entirely from differences in education and social circumstances4 ,genius itself is not a gift of nature2 the man of genius is a product of circumstances--social1 not physical1 for ,helvetius rejects the influence of climate4 ,it follows that if you change education and social institutions you can change the character of men4 ,the error of ,helvetius in ignoring the irremovable physical differences between individuals1 the varieties of cerebral organisation1 was at once pointed out by ,diderot4 ,this error1 however1 was not essential to the general theory of the immeasurable power of social institutions over human character1 and other thinkers did not fall into it4 ,all alike1 indeed1 were blind to the factor of heredity4 ,but the theory in its collective application contains a truth which nineteenth century critics1 biassed by their studies in heredity1 have been prone to overlook4 ,the social inheritance of ideas and emotions to which the individual is submitted from infancy is more important than the tendencies physically transmitted from parent to child4 ,the power of education and government in moulding the members of a society has recently been illustrated on a large scale in the psychological transformation of the ,german people in the life of a generation4 ,it followed from the theory expounded by ,helvetius that there is no impassable barrier between the advanced and the stationary or retrograde races of the earth4 ,footnote3 ,the most informing discussion of the relations between the ,advanced and ,backward races is ,bryce's ,romanes ,lecture 7#aijb74 ,true morality1 ,baron d',holbach wrote1 should be the same for all the inhabitants of the globe4 ,the savage man and the civilised2 the white man1 the red man1 the black man2 ,indian and ,european1 ,chinaman and ,frenchman1 ,negro and ,lapp have the same nature4 ,the differences between them are only modifications of the common nature produced by climate1 government1 education1 opinions1 and the various causes which operate on them4 ,men differ only in the ideas they form of happiness and the means which they have imagined to obtain it4 ,here again the eighteenth century theorists held a view which can no longer be dismissed as absurd4 ,some are coming round to the opinion that enormous differences in capacity which seem fundamental are a result of the differences in social inheritance1 and that these again are due to a long sequence of historical circumstances2 and consequently that there is no people in the world doomed by nature to perpetual inferiority or irrevocably disqualified by race from playing a useful part in the future of civilisation4 #d4 ,this doctrine of the possibility of indefinitely moulding the characters of men by laws and institutions--whether combined or not with a belief in the natural equality of men's faculties--laid a foundation on which the theory of the perfectibility of humanity could be raised4 ,it marked1 therefore1 an important stage in the development of the doctrine of ,progress4 ,it gave1 moreover1 a new and larger content to that doctrine by its applicability1 not only to the peoples which are at present in the van of civilisation1 but also to those which have lagged far behind and may appear irreclaimably barbarous--thus potentially including all humanity in the prospect of the future4 ,turgot had already conceived the total mass of the human race moving always slowly forward2 he had declared that the human mind everywhere contains the germs of progress and that the inequality of peoples is due to the infinite variety of their circumstances4 ,this enlarging conception was calculated to add strength to the idea of ,progress1 by raising it to a synthesis comprehending not merely the western civilised nations but the whole human world4 ,interest in the remote peoples of the earth1 in the unfamiliar civilisations of the ,east1 in the untutored races of ,america and ,africa1 was vivid in ,france in the eighteenth century4 ,everyone knows how ,voltaire and ,montesquieu used ,hurons or ,persians to hold up the glass to ,western manners and morals1 as ,tacitus used the ,germans to criticise the society of ,rome4 ,but very few ever look into the seven volumes of the ,abbe ,raynal's ,history of the ,two ,indies which appeared in #aggb4 ,it is however1 one of the remarkable books of the century4 ,its immediate practical importance lay in the array of facts which it furnished to the friends of humanity in the movement against negro slavery4 ,but it was also an effective attack on the ,church and the sacerdotal system4 ,the author's method was the same which his greater contemporary ,gibbon employed on a larger scale4 ,a history of facts was a more formidable indictment than any declamatory attack4 ,raynal brought home to the conscience of ,europeans the miseries which had befallen the natives of the ,new ,world through the ,christian conquerors and their priests4 ,he was not indeed an enthusiastic preacher of ,progress4 ,he is unable to decide between the comparative advantages of the savage state of nature and the most highly cultivated society4 ,but he observes that the human race is what we wish to make it1 that the felicity of man depends entirely on the improvement of legislation2 and in the survey of the history of ,europe to which the last ,book of his work is devoted1 his view is generally optimistic4 ,footnote3 cp4 ,raynal1 ,histoire1 vii4 #bad1 #bef4 ,this book was first published anonymously2 the author's name appeared in the edition of #aghj4 #e4 ,baron d',holbach had a more powerful brain than ,helvetius1 but his writings had probably less influence1 though he was the spiritual father of two prominent ,revolutionaries1 ,hebert and ,chaumette4 ,his ,system of ,nature 7#aggj7 develops a purely naturalistic theory of the universe1 in which the prevalent ,deism is rejected3 there is no ,god2 material ,nature stands out alone1 self-sufficing1 dominis privata superbis4 ,the book suggests how the ,lucretian theory of development might have led to the idea of ,progress4 ,but it sent a chilly shock to the hearts of many and probably convinced few4 ,the effective part was the outspoken and passionate indictment of governments and religions as causes of most of the miseries of mankind4 ,it is in other works1 especially in his ,social ,system1 that his views of ,progress are to be sought4 ,man is simply a part of nature2 he has no privileged position1 and he is born neither good nor bad4 ,erras1 as ,seneca said1 si existumas vitia nobiscum esse3 supervenerunt1 ingesta sunt4 ,footnote3 ,seneca1 ,ep4 #abd4 ,we are made good or bad by education1 public opinion1 laws1 government2 and here the author points to the significance of the instinct of imitation as a social force1 which a modern writer1 ,m4 ,tarde1 has worked into a system4 ,the evils1 which are due to the errors of tyranny and superstition1 the force of truth will gradually diminish if it cannot completely banish them2 for our governments and laws may be perfected by the progress of useful knowledge4 ,but the process will be a long one3 centuries of continuous mental effort in unravelling the causes of social ill-being and repeated experiments to determine the remedies 7des experiences reiterees de la societe74 ,in any case we cannot look forward to the attainment of an unchangeable or unqualified felicity4 ,that is a mere chimera incompatible with the nature of a being whose feeble machine is subject to derangement and whose ardent imagination will not always submit to the guidance of reason4 ,sometimes to enjoy1 sometimes to suffer1 is the lot of man2 to enjoy more often than to suffer is what constitutes well-being4 ,d',holbach was a strict determinist2 he left no room for freewill in the rigorous succession of cause and effect1 and the pages in which he drives home the theory of causal necessity are still worth reading4 ,from his naturalistic principles he inferred that the distinction between nature and art is not fundamental2 civilisation is as rational as the savage state4 ,here he was at one with ,aristotle4 ,all the successive inventions of the human mind to change or perfect man's mode of existence and render it happier were only the necessary consequence of his essence and that of the existences which act upon him4 ,all we do or think1 all we are or shall be1 is only an effect of what universal nature has made us4 ,art is only nature acting by the aid of the instruments which she has fashioned4 ,footnote3 ,the passages of d',holbach specially referred to are3 ,systeme social1 i4 #a1 p4 #ac2 ,syst4 de la nature1 i4 #f1 p4 #hh2 ,syst4 soc4 i4 #ae1 p4 #bga2 ,syst4 de la n4 i4 #a1 p4 #c4 ,progress1 therefore1 is natural and necessary1 and to criticise or condemn it by appealing to nature is only to divide the house of nature against itself4 ,if d',holbach had pressed his logic further1 he would have taken a more indulgent and calmer view of the past history of mankind4 ,he would have acknowledged that institutions and opinions to which modern reason may give short shrift were natural and useful in their day1 and would have recognised that at any stage of history the heritage of the past is no less necessary to progress than the solvent power of new ideas4 ,most thinkers of his time were inclined to judge the past career of humanity anachronistically4 ,all the things that had been done or thought which could not be justified in the new age of enlightenment1 were regarded as gratuitous and inexcusable errors4 ,the traditions1 superstitions1 and customs1 the whole code of fraud and woe transmitted from the past1 weighed then too heavily in ,france to allow the school of reform to do impartial justice to their origins4 ,they felt a sort of resentment against history4 ,d',alembert said that it would be well if history could be destroyed2 and the general tendency was to ignore the social memory and the common heritage of past experiences which mould a human society and make it something very different from a mere collection of individuals4 ,belief in ,progress1 however1 took no extravagant form4 ,it did not beguile d',holbach or any other of the leading thinkers of the ,encyclopaedia epoch into optimistic dreams of the future which might await mankind4 ,they had a much clearer conception of obstacles than the good ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre4 ,helvetius agrees with d',holbach that progress will be slow1 and ,diderot is wavering and sceptical of the question of indefinite social improvement4 ,footnote3 ,de l'esprit1 ,disc4 ii4 cc4 #bd1 #be4 #f4 ,the reformers of the ,encyclopaedia group were not alone in disseminating the idea of ,progress4 ,another group of thinkers1 who widely differed in their principles1 though some of them had contributed articles to the ,encyclopaedia1 ,footnote3 ,quesnay and ,turgot1 who1 though not professedly a ,physiocrat1 held the same views as the sect4 also did much to make it a power4 ,the rise of the special study of ,economics was one of the most significant facts in the general trend of thought towards the analysis of civilisation4 ,economical students found that in seeking to discover a true theory of the production1 distribution1 and employment of wealth1 they could not avoid the consideration of the constitution and purpose of society4 ,the problems of production and distribution could not be divorced from political theory3 production raises the question of the functions of government and the limits of its intervention in trade and industry2 distribution involve questions of property1 justice1 and equality4 ,the employment of riches leads into the domain of morals4 ,the ,french ,economists or ,physiocrats1 as they were afterwards called1 who formed a definite school before #agfj--,quesnay the master1 ,mirabeau1 ,mercier de la ,riviere1 and the rest--envisaged their special subject from a wide philosophical point of view2 their general economic theory was equivalent to a theory of human society4 ,they laid down the doctrine of a ,natural ,order in political communities1 and from it they deduced their economic teaching4 ,they assumed1 like the ,encyclopaedists1 that the end of society is the attainment of terrestrial happiness by its members1 and that this is the sole purpose of government4 ,the object of a treatise by ,mercier de la ,riviere ,footnote3 ,l'ordre naturel et essentiel des societes politiqes1 #agfg4 7a convenient exposition of the views of the sect7 is1 in his own words1 to discover the natural order for the government of men living in organised communities1 which will assure to them temporal felicity3 an order in which everything is well1 necessarily well1 and in which the interests of all are so perfectly and intimately consolidated that all are happy1 from the ruler to the least of his subjects4 ,but in what does this happiness consist8 ,his answer is that humanly speaking1 the greatest happiness possible for us consists in the greatest possible abundance of objects suitable to our enjoyment and in the greatest liberty to profit by them4 ,and liberty is necessary not only to enjoy them but also to produce them in the greatest abundance1 since liberty stimulates human efforts4 ,another condition of abundance is the multiplication of the race2 in fact1 the happiness of men and their numbers are closely bound up together in the system of nature4 ,from these axioms may be deduced the ,natural ,order of a human society1 the reciprocal duties and rights whose enforcement is required for the greatest possible multiplication of products1 in order to procure to the race the greatest sum of happiness with the maximum population4 ,now1 individual property is the indispensable condition for full enjoyment of the products of human labour2 property is the measure of liberty1 and liberty is the measure of property4 ,hence1 to realise general happiness it is only necessary to maintain property and consequently liberty in all their natural extent4 ,the fatal error which has made history what it is has been the failure to recognise this simple fact2 for aggression and conquest1 the causes of human miseries1 violate the law of property which is the foundation of happiness4 ,the practical inference was that the chief function of government was to protect property and that complete freedom should be left to private enterprise to exploit the resources of the earth4 ,all would be well if trade and industry were allowed to follow their natural tendencies4 ,this is what was meant by ,physiocracy1 the supremacy of the ,natural ,order4 ,if rulers observed the limits of their true functions1 ,mercier thought that the moral effect would be immense4 ,the public system of government is the true education of moral man4 ,regis ad exemplum totus componitur orbis4 ,footnote3 ,the particulars of the ,physiocratic doctrine as to the relative values of agriculture and commerce which ,adam ,smith was soon to criticise do not concern us2 nor is it necessary to repeat the obvious criticisms on a theory which virtually reduced the science of society to a science of production and distribution4 ,while they advocated a thorough reform of the principles which ruled the fiscal policy of governments1 the ,economists were not idealists1 like the ,encyclopaedic philosophers2 they sowed no seeds of revolution4 ,their starting-point was that which is1 not that which ought to be4 ,and1 apart from their narrower point of view1 they differed from the philosophers in two very important points4 ,they did not believe that society was of human institution1 and therefore they did not believe that there could be any deductive science of society based simply on man's nature4 ,moreover1 they held that inequality of condition was one of its immutable features1 immutable because it is a consequence of the inequality of physical powers4 ,but they believed in the future progress of society towards a state of happiness through the increase of opulence which would itself depend on the growth of justice and liberty2 and they insisted on the importance of the increase and diffusion of knowledge4 ,their influence in promoting a belief in ,progress is vouched for by ,condorcet1 the friend and biographer of ,turgot4 ,as ,turgot stands apart from the ,physiocrats 7with whom indeed he did not identify himself7 by his wider views on civilisation1 it might be suspected that it is of him that ,condorcet was chiefly thinking4 ,yet we need not limit the scope of his statement when we remember that as a sect the ,economists assumed as their first principle the eudaemonic value of civilisation1 declared that temporal happiness is attainable1 and threw all their weight into the scales against the doctrine of ,regress which had found a powerful advocate in ,rousseau4 #g4 ,by liberty the ,economists meant economic liberty4 ,neither they nor the philosophers nor ,rousseau1 the father of modern democracy1 had any just conception of what political liberty means4 ,they contributed much to its realisation1 but their own ideas of it were narrow and imperfect4 ,they never challenged the principle of a despotic government1 they only contended that the despotism must be enlightened4 ,the paternal rule of a ,joseph or a ,catherine1 acting under the advice of philosophers1 seemed to them the ideal solution of the problem of government2 and when the progressive and disinterested ,turgot1 whom they might regard as one of themselves1 was appointed financial minister on the accession of ,louis ,,xvi41 it seemed that their ideal was about to be realised4 ,his speedy fall dispelled their hopes1 but did not teach them the secret of liberty4 ,they had no quarrel with the principle of the censorship1 though they writhed under its tyranny2 they did not want to abolish it4 ,they only complained that it was used against reason and light1 that is against their own writings2 and1 if the ,conseil d',etat or the ,parlement had suppressed the works of their obscurantist opponents1 they would have congratulated themselves that the world was marching quickly towards perfection4 ,footnote3 ,the principle that intolerance on the part of the wise and strong towards the ignorant and weak is a good thing is not alien to the spirit of the ,french philosophers1 though ,i do not think any of them expressly asserted it4 ,in the following century it was formulated by ,colins1 a ,belgian 7author of two works on social science1 #aheg-fj71 who believed that an autocratic government suppressing liberty of conscience is the most effective instrument of ,progress4 ,it is possible that democracy may yet try the experiment4 ,,chapter ,,ix4 ,,was ,,civilisation ,a ,,mistake8 ,,rousseau1 ,,chastellux4 #a4 ,the optimistic theory of civilisation was not unchallenged by rationalists4 ,in the same year 7#agej7 in which ,turgot traced an outline of historical ,progress at the ,sorbonne1 ,rousseau laid before the ,academy of ,dijon a theory of historical ,regress4 ,this ,academy had offered a prize for the best essay on the question whether the revival of sciences and arts had contributed to the improvement of morals4 ,the prize was awarded to ,rousseau4 ,five years later the same learned body proposed another subject for investigation1 the origin of ,inequality among men4 ,rousseau again competed but failed to win the prize1 though this second essay was a far more remarkable performance4 ,the view common to these two discourses1 that social development has been a gigantic mistake1 that the farther man has travelled from a primitive simple state the more unhappy has his lot become1 that civilisation is radically vicious1 was not original4 ,essentially the same issue had been raised in ,england1 though in a different form1 by ,mandeville's ,fable of the ,bees1 the scandalous book which aimed at proving that it is not the virtues and amiable qualities of man that are the cement of civilised society1 but the vices of its members which are the support of all trades and employments4 ,footnote3 ,the expanded edition was published in #agbc4 ,in these vices1 he said1 we must look for the true origin of all arts and sciences2 the moment evil ceases the society must be spoiled1 if not totally dissolved4 ,the significance of ,mandeville's book lay in the challenge it flung to the optimistic doctrines of ,lord ,shaftesbury1 that human nature is good and all is for the best in this harmonious world4 ,the ideas he had formed1 wrote ,mandeville1 of the goodness and excellency of our nature were as romantic and chimerical as they are beautiful and amiable2 he laboured hard to unite two contraries that can never be reconciled together1 innocence of manners and worldly greatness4 ,of these two views ,rousseau accepted one and rejected the other4 ,he agreed with ,shaftesbury as to the natural goodness of man2 he agreed with ,mandeville that innocence of manners is incompatible with the conditions of a civilised society4 ,he was an optimist in regard to human nature1 a pessimist in regard to civilisation4 ,in his first ,discourse he begins by appreciating the specious splendour of modern enlightenment1 the voyages of man's intellect among the stars1 and then goes on to assever that in the first place men have lost1 through their civilisation1 the original liberty for which they were born1 and that arts and science1 flinging garlands of flowers on the iron chains which bind them1 make them love their slavery2 and secondly that there is a real depravity beneath the fair semblance and our souls are corrupted as our sciences and arts advance to perfection4 ,nor is this only a modern phenomenon2 the evils due to our vain curiosity are as old as the world4 ,for it is a law of history that morals fall and rise in correspondence with the progress and decline of the arts and sciences as regularly as the tides answer to the phases of the moon4 ,this law is exemplified by the fortunes of ,greece1 ,rome1 and ,china1 to whose civilisations the author opposes the comparative happiness of the ignorant ,persians1 ,scythians1 and ancient ,germans4 ,luxury1 dissoluteness1 and slavery have been always the chastisement of the ambitious efforts we have made to emerge from the happy ignorance in which the ,eternal ,wisdom had placed us4 ,there is the theological doctrine of the tree of ,eden in a new shape4 ,rousseau's attempt to show that the cultivation of science produces specific moral evils is feeble1 and has little ingenuity2 it is a declamation rather than an argument2 and in the end he makes concessions which undo the effect of his impeachment4 ,the essay did not establish even a plausible case1 but it was paradoxical and suggestive1 and attracted more attention than ,turgot's thoughtful discourse in the ,sorbonne4 ,d',alembert deemed it worthy of a courteous expression of dissent2 ,footnote3 ,in the ,disc4 ,prel4 to the ,encyclopaedia4 and ,voltaire satirised it in his ,timon4 #b4 ,in the ,discourse on ,inequality ,rousseau dealt more directly with the effect of civilisation on happiness4 ,he proposed to explain how it came about that right overcame the primitive reign of might1 that the strong were induced to serve the weak1 and the people to purchase a fancied tranquillity at the price of a real felicity4 ,so he stated his problem2 and to solve it he had to consider the state of nature which ,hobbes had conceived as a state of war and ,locke as a state of peace4 ,rousseau imagines our first savage ancestors living in isolation1 wandering in the forests1 occasionally co-operating1 and differing from the animals only by the possession of a faculty for improving themselves 7la faculte de se perfectionner74 ,after a stage in which families lived alone in a more or less settled condition1 came the formation of groups of families1 living together in a definite territory1 united by a common mode of life and sustenance1 and by the common influence of climate1 but without laws or government or any social organisation4 ,it is this state1 which was reached only after a long period1 not the original state of nature1 that ,rousseau considers to have been the happiest period of the human race4 ,this period of the development of human faculties1 holding a just mean between the indolence of the primitive state and the petulant activity of our self-love1 must be the happiest and most durable epoch4 ,the more we reflect on it1 the more we find that this state was the least exposed to revolutions and the best for man2 and that he can have left it only through some fatal chance which1 for the common advantage1 should never have occurred4 ,the example of the savages who have almost all been found in this state seems to bear out the conclusion that humanity was made to remain in it for ever1 that it was the true youth of the world1 and that all further progresses have been so many steps1 apparently towards the perfection of the individual1 and really towards the decrepitude of the species4 ,he ascribes to metallurgy and agriculture the fatal resolution which brought this ,arcadian existence to an end4 ,agriculture entailed the origin of property in land4 ,moral and social inequality were introduced by the man who first enclosed a piece of land and said1 ,this is mine1 and found people simple enough to believe him4 ,he was the founder of civil society4 ,the general argument amounts to this3 ,man's faculty of improving himself is the source of his other faculties1 including his sociability1 and has been fatal to his happiness4 ,the circumstances of his primeval life favoured the growth of this faculty1 and in making man sociable they made him wicked2 they developed the reason of the individual and thereby caused the species to deteriorate4 ,if the process had stopped at a certain point1 all would have been well2 but man's capacities1 stimulated by fortuitous circumstances1 urged him onward1 and leaving behind him the peaceful ,arcadia where he should have remained safe and content1 he set out on the fatal road which led to the calamities of civilisation4 ,we need not follow ,rousseau in his description of those calamities which he attributes to wealth and the artificial conditions of society4 ,his indictment was too general and rhetorical to make much impression4 ,in truth1 a more powerful and comprehensive case against civilised society was drawn up about the same time1 though with a very different motive1 by one whose thought represented all that was opposed to ,rousseau's teaching4 ,burke's early work1 ,a ,vindication of ,natural ,society1 ,footnote3 ,a4,d4 #agef4 was written to show that all the objections which ,deists like ,bolingbroke urged against artificial religion could be brought with greater force against artificial society1 and he worked out in detail a historical picture of the evils of civilisation which is far more telling than ,rousseau's generalities4 ,footnote3 ,in his admirable edition of ,the ,political ,writings of ,jean-,jacques ,rousseau 7#aiae71 p4 #hi1 ,vaughan suggests that in ,rousseau's later works we may possibly detect the first faint beginnings of a belief in ,progress1 and attributes this to the influence of ,montesquieu4 #c4 ,if civilisation has been the curse of man1 it might seem that the logical course for ,rousseau to recommend was its destruction4 ,this was the inference which ,voltaire drew in ,timon1 to laugh the whole theory out of court4 ,but ,rousseau did not suggest a movement to destroy all the libraries and all the works of art in the world1 to put to death or silence all the savants1 to pull down the cities1 and burn the ships4 ,he was not a mere dreamer1 and his ,arcadia was no more than a ,utopian ideal1 by the light of which he conceived that the society of his own day might be corrected and transformed4 ,he attached his hopes to equality1 democracy1 and a radical change in education4 ,equality3 this revolutionary idea was of course quite compatible with the theory of ,progress1 and was soon to be closely associated with it4 ,but it is easy to understand that the two ideas should first have appeared in antagonism to each other4 ,the advance of knowledge and the increase of man's power over nature had virtually profited only a minority4 ,when ,fontenelle or ,voltaire vaunted the illumination of their age and glorified the modern revolution in scientific thought1 they took account only of a small class of privileged people4 ,higher education1 ,voltaire observed1 is not for cobblers or kitchenmaids2 on n'a jamais pretendu eclairer les cordonniers et les servantes4 ,the theory of ,progress had so far left the masses out of account4 ,rousseau contrasted the splendour of the ,french court1 the luxury of the opulent1 the enlightenment of those who had the opportunity of education1 with the hard lot of the ignorant mass of peasants1 whose toil paid for the luxury of many of the idle enlightened people who amused themselves at ,paris4 ,the horror of this contrast1 which left ,voltaire cold1 was the poignant motive which inspired ,rousseau1 a man of the people1 in constructing his new doctrine4 ,the existing inequality seemed an injustice which rendered the self-complacency of the age revolting4 ,if this is the result of progressive civilisation1 what is progress worth8 ,the next step is to declare that civilisation is the causa malorum and that what is named progress is really regress4 ,but ,rousseau found a way of circumventing pessimism4 ,he asked himself1 cannot equality be realised in an organised state1 founded on natural right8 ,the ,social ,contract was his answer1 and there we can see the living idea of equality detaching itself from the dead theory of degradation4 ,footnote3 ,the consistency of the ,social ,contract with the ,discourse on ,inequality has been much debated4 ,they deal with two distinct problems1 and the ,social ,contract does not mark any change in the author's views4 ,though it was not published till #agfb he had been working at it since #agec4 ,arcadianism1 which was thus only a side-issue for ,rousseau1 was the extreme expression of tendencies which appear in the speculations of other thinkers of the day4 ,morelly and ,mably argued in favour of a reversion to simpler forms of life4 ,they contemplated the foundation of socialistic communities by reviving institutions and practices which belonged to a past period of social evolution4 ,mably1 inspired by ,plato1 thought it possible by legislation to construct a state of antique pattern4 ,footnote3 ,for ,mably's political doctrines see ,guerrier's monograph1 ,l',abbe de ,mably 7#ahhf71 where it is shown that among the theories which determined in advance the course of the events of #aghi the ,abbe's played a role which has not been duly recognised4 ,they ascribed evils of civilisation to inequality arising from the existence of private property1 but ,morelly rejected the view of the bold sophist ,rousseau that science and art were to blame4 ,he thought that aided by science and learning man might reach a state based on communism1 resembling the state of nature but more perfect1 and he planned an ideal constitution in his romance of the ,floating ,islands4 ,footnote3 ,naufrage des isles flottantes ou ,basiliade du celebre ,pilpai 7#agec74 ,it begins3 je chante le regne aimable de la ,verite et de la ,nature4 ,morelly's other work1 ,code de la ,nature1 appeared in #agee4 ,different as these views were1 they represent the idea of regress2 they imply a condemnation of the tendencies of actual social development and recommend a return to simpler and more primitive conditions4 ,even ,diderot1 though he had little sympathy with ,utopian speculations1 was attracted by the idea of the simplification of society1 and met ,rousseau so far as to declare that the happiest state was a mean between savage and civilised life4 ,i am convinced1 he wrote1 that the industry of man has gone too far and that if it had stopped long ago and if it were possible to simplify the results1 we should not be the worse4 ,i believe there is a limit in civilisation1 a limit more conformable to the felicity of man in general and far less distant from the savage state than is imagined2 but how to return to it1 having left it1 or how to remain in it1 if we were there8 ,i know not4 ,footnote3 ,refutation de l'ouvrage d',helvetius in ,o,euvres ii4 p4 #dca4 ,elsewhere 7p4 #bhg7 he argues that in a community without arts and industries there are fewer crimes than in a civilised state1 but men are not so happy4 ,his picture of the savages of ,tahiti in the ,supplement au voyage de ,bougainville was not seriously meant1 but it illustrates the fact that in certain moods he felt the fascination of ,rousseau's ,arcadia4 ,d',holbach met all these theories by pointing out that human development1 from the state of nature to social life and the ideas and commodities of civilisation1 is itself natural1 given the innate tendency of man to improve his lot4 ,to return to the simpler life of the forests--or to any bygone stage--would be denaturer l'homme1 it would be contrary to nature2 and if he could do so1 it would only be to recommence the career begun by his ancestors and pass again through the same successive phases of history4 ,footnote3 ,syst4 soc4 i4 #af1 p4 #aij4 ,there was1 indeed1 one question which caused some embarrassment to believers in ,progress4 ,the increase of wealth and luxury was evidently a salient feature in modern progressive states2 and it was clear that there was an intimate connection between the growth of knowledge and the growth of commerce and industrial arts1 and that the natural progress of these meant an ever-increasing accumulation of riches and the practice of more refined luxury4 ,the question1 therefore1 whether luxury is injurious to the general happiness occupied the attention of the philosophers4 ,footnote3 ,d',holbach1 ib4 iii4 #g2 ,diderot1 art4 ,luxe in the ,encylopaedia2 ,helvetius1 ,de l'esprit1 i4 #c4 ,if it is injurious1 does it not follow that the forces on which admittedly ,progress depends are leading in an undesirable direction8 ,should they be obstructed1 or is it wiser to let things follow their natural tendency 7laisser aller les choses suivant leur pente naturelle78 ,voltaire accepted wealth with all its consequences4 ,d',holbach proved to his satisfaction that luxury always led to the ruin of nations4 ,diderot and ,helvetius arrayed the arguments which could be urged on both sides4 ,perhaps the most reasonable contribution to the subject was an essay of ,hume4 #d4 ,it is obvious that ,rousseau and all other theorists of ,regress would be definitely refuted if it could be proved by an historical investigation that in no period in the past had man's lot been happier than in the present4 ,such an inquiry was undertaken by the ,chevalier de ,chastellux4 ,his book ,on ,public ,felicity1 or ,considerations on the lot of ,men in the various ,epochs of ,history1 appeared in #aggb and had a wide circulation4 ,footnote3 ,there was a new edition in #aggf with an important additional chapter4 ,it is a survey of the history of the western world and aims at proving the certainty of future ,progress4 ,it betrays the influence both of the ,encyclopaedists and of the ,economists4 ,chastellux is convinced that human nature can be indefinitely moulded by institutions2 that enlightenment is a necessary condition of general happiness2 that war and superstition1 for which governments and priests are responsible1 are the principal obstacles4 ,but he attempted to do what none of his masters had done1 to test the question methodically from the data of history4 ,turgot1 and ,voltaire in his way1 had traced the growth of civilisation2 the originality of ,chastellux lay in concentrating attention on the eudaemonic issue1 in examining each historical period for the purpose of discovering whether people on the whole were happy and enviable4 ,has there ever been a time1 he inquired1 in which public felicity was greater than in our own1 in which it would have been desirable to remain for ever1 and to which it would now be desirable to return8 ,he begins by brushing away the hypothesis of an ,arcadia4 ,we know really nothing about primitive man1 there is not sufficient evidence to authorise conjectures4 ,we know man only as he has existed in organised societies1 and if we are to condemn modern civilisation and its prospects1 we must find our term of comparison not in an imaginary golden age but in a known historical epoch4 ,and we must be careful not to fall into the mistakes of confusing public prosperity with general happiness1 and of considering only the duration or aggrandisement of empires and ignoring the lot of the common people4 ,his survey of history is summary and superficial enough4 ,he gives reasons for believing that no peoples from the ancient ,egyptians and ,assyrians to the ,europeans of the ,renaissance can be judged happy4 ,yet what about the ,greeks8 ,theirs was an age of enlightenment4 ,in a few pages he examines their laws and history1 and concludes1 ,we are compelled to acknowledge that what is called the bel age of ,greece was a time of pain and torture for humanity4 ,and in ancient history1 generally1 slavery alone sufficed to make man's condition a hundred times worse than it is at present4 ,the miseries of life in the ,roman period are even more apparent than in the ,greek4 ,what ,englishman or ,frenchman would tolerate life as lived in ancient ,rome8 ,it is interesting to remember that four years later an ,englishman who had an incomparably wider and deeper knowledge of history declared it to be probable that in the age of the ,antonines civilised ,europe enjoyed greater happiness than at any other period4 ,rome declined and ,christianity came4 ,its purpose was not to render men happy on earth1 and we do not find that it made rulers less avaricious or less sanguinary1 peoples more patient or quiet1 crimes rarer1 punishments less cruel1 treaties more faithfully observed1 or wars waged more humanely4 ,the conclusion is that it is only those who are profoundly ignorant of the past who can regret the good old times4 ,throughout this survey ,chastellux does not1 like ,turgot1 make any attempt to show that the race was progressing1 however slowly4 ,on the contrary1 he sets the beginning of continuous ,progress in the ,renaissance--here agreeing with d',alembert and ,voltaire4 ,the intellectual movement1 which originated then and resulted in the enlightenment of his own day1 was a condition of social progress4 ,but alone it would not have been enough1 as is proved by the fact that the intellectual brilliancy of the great age of ,greece exerted no beneficent effects on the well-being of the people4 ,nor indeed was there any perceptible improvement in the prospect of happiness for the people at large during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries1 notwithstanding the progress of science and the arts4 ,but the terrible wars of this period exhausted ,europe1 and this financial exhaustion has supplied the requisite conditions for attaining a measure of felicity never realised in the past4 ,peace is an advantageous condition for the progress of reason1 but especially when it is the result of the exhaustion of peoples and their satiety of fighting4 ,frivolous ideas disappear2 political bodies1 like organisms1 have the care of self-preservation impressed upon them by pain2 the human mind1 hitherto exercised on agreeable objects1 falls back with more energy on useful objects2 a more successful appeal can be made to the rights of humanity2 and princes1 who have become creditors and debtors of their subjects1 permit them to be happy in order that they may be more solvent or more patient4 ,this is not very lucid or convincing2 but the main point is that intellectual enlightenment would be ineffective without the co-operation of political events1 and no political events would permanently help humanity without the progress of knowledge4 ,public felicity consists--,chastellux follows the ,economists--in external and domestic peace1 abundance and liberty1 the liberty of tranquil enjoyment of one's own2 and ordinary signs of it are flourishing agriculture1 large populations1 and the growth of trade and industry4 ,he is at pains to show the superiority of modern to ancient agriculture1 and he avails himself of the researches of ,hume to prove the comparatively greater populousness of modern ,european countries4 ,as for the prospect of peace1 he takes a curiously optimistic view4 ,a system of alliances has made ,europe a sort of confederated republic1 and the balance of power has rendered the design of a universal monarchy1 such as that which ,louis ,,xiv4 essayed1 a chimera4 ,footnote3 ,so ,rivarol1 writing in #aghc 7,o,euvres1 i4 pp4 #d and #eb73 ,never did the world offer such a spectacle4 ,europe has reached such a high degree of power that history has nothing to compare with it4 ,it is virtually a federative republic1 composed of empires and kingdoms1 and the most powerful that has ever existed4 ,all the powerful nations are burdened with debt4 ,war1 too1 is a much more difficult enterprise than it used to be2 every campaign of the king of ,prussia has been more arduous than all the conquests of ,attila4 ,it looks as if the ,peace of #agfb-c possessed elements of finality4 ,the chief danger he discerns in the overseas policy of the ,english--auri sacra fames4 ,divination of this kind has never been happy2 a greater thinker1 ,auguste ,comte1 was to venture on more dogmatic predictions of the cessation of wars1 which the event was no less utterly to belie4 ,as for equality among men1 ,chastellux admits its desirability1 but observes that there is pretty much the same amount of happiness 7le bonheur se compense assez7 in the different classes of society4 ,courtiers and ministers are not happier than husbandmen and artisans4 ,inequalities and disportions in the lots of individuals are not incompatible with a positive measure of felicity4 ,they are inconveniences incident to the perfectibility of the species1 and they will be eliminated only when ,progress reaches its final term4 ,the best that can be done to remedy them is to accelerate the ,progress of the race which will conduct it one day to the greatest possible happiness2 not to restore a state of ignorance and simplicity1 from which it would again escape4 ,the general argument of the book may be resumed briefly4 ,felicity has never been realised in any period of the past4 ,no government1 however esteemed1 set before itself to achieve what ought to be the sole object of government1 the greatest happiness of the greatest number of individuals4 ,now1 for the first time in human history1 intellectual enlightenment1 other circumstances fortunately concurring1 has brought about a condition of things1 in which this object can no longer be ignored1 and there is a prospect that it will gradually gain the ascendant4 ,in the meantime1 things have improved2 the diffusion of knowledge is daily ameliorating men's lot1 and far from envying any age in the past we ought to consider ourselves much happier than the ancients4 ,we may wonder at this writer's easy confidence in applying the criterion of happiness to different societies4 ,yet the difficulty of such comparisons was1 ,i believe1 first pointed out by ,comte4 ,footnote3 ,cours de philosophie positive1 iv4 #cgi4 ,it is impossible1 he says1 to compare two states of society and determine that in one more happiness was enjoyed than in the other4 ,the happiness of an individual requires a certain degree of harmony between his faculties and his environment4 ,but there is always a natural tendency towards the establishment of such an equilibrium1 and there is no means of discovering by argument or by direct experience the situation of a society in this respect4 ,therefore1 he concludes1 the question of happiness must be eliminated from any scientific treatment of civilisation4 ,chastellux won a remarkable success4 ,his work was highly praised by ,voltaire1 and was translated into ,english1 ,italian1 and ,german4 ,it condensed1 on a single issue1 the optimistic doctrines of the philosophers1 and appeared to give them a more solid historical foundation than ,voltaire's ,essay on ,manners had supplied4 ,it provided the optimists with new arguments against ,rousseau1 and must have done much to spread and confirm faith in perfectibility4 ,footnote3 ,soon after the publication of the book of ,chastellux--though ,i do not suggest any direct connection--a society of ,illuminati1 who also called themselves the ,perfectibilists1 was founded at ,ingoldstadt1 who proposed to effect a pacific transformation of humanity4 ,see ,javary1 ,de l'idee de progres1 p4 #gc4 ,,chapter ,x4 ,,the ,,year #bddj #a4 ,the leaders of thought in ,france did not look far forward into the future or attempt to trace the definite lines on which the human race might be expected to develop4 ,they contented themselves with principles and vague generalities1 and they had no illusions as to the slowness of the process of social amelioration2 a rational morality1 the condition of improvement1 was only in its infancy4 ,a passage in a work of the ,abbe ,morellet probably reflects faithfully enough the comfortable though not extravagant optimism which was current4 ,footnote3 ,reflexions sur les avantages d'ecrire et d'imprimer sur les matieres de l'administration 7#agfd72 in ,melanges1 vol4 iii4 p4 #ee4 ,morellet held1 like d',holbach1 that society is only the development and improvement of nature itself 7ib4 p4 #f74 ,let us hope for the amelioration of man's lot as a consequence of the progress of the enlightenment 7des lumieres7 and labours of the educated 7des gens instruits72 let us trust that the errors and even the injustices of our age may not rob us of this consoling hope4 ,the history of society presents a continuous alternation of light and darkness1 reason and extravagance1 humanity and barbarism2 but in the succession of ages we can observe good gradually increasing in ever greater proportion4 ,what educated man1 if he is not a misanthrope or misled by vain declamations1 would really wish he had lived in the barbarous and poetical time which ,homer paints in such fair and terrifying colours8 ,who regrets that he was not born at ,sparta among those pretended heroes who made it a virtue to insult nature1 practised theft1 and gloried in the murder of a ,helot2 or at ,carthage1 the scene of human sacrifices1 or at ,rome amid the proscriptions or under the rule of a ,nero or a ,caligula8 ,let as agree that man advances1 though slowly1 towards light and happiness4 ,but though the most influential writers were sober in speculating about the future1 it is significant of their effectiveness in diffusing the idea of ,progress that now for the first time a prophetic ,utopia was constructed4 ,hitherto1 as ,i have before observed1 ideal states were either projected into the remote past or set in some distant1 vaguely-known region1 where fancy could build freely4 ,to project them into the future was a new thing1 and when in #aggj ,sebastien ,mercier described what human civilisation would be in ,a4,d4 #bddj1 it was a telling sign of the power which the idea of ,progress was beginning to exercise4 #b4 ,mercier has been remembered1 or rather forgotten1 as an inferior dramatist4 ,he was a good deal more1 and the researches of ,m4 ,beclard into his life and works enable us to appreciate him4 ,if it is an overstatement to say that his soul reflected in miniature the very soul of his age1 ,footnote3 ,l4 ,beclard1 ,sebastien ,mercier1 sa vie1 son oeuvre1 son temps 7#aijc71 p4 vii4 he was assuredly one of its characteristic products4 ,he reminds us in some ways of the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre1 who was one of his heroes4 ,all his activities were urged by the dream of a humanity regenerated by reason1 all his energy devoted to bringing about its accomplishment4 ,saint-,pierre's idea of perpetual peace inspired an early essay on the scourge of war4 ,the theories of ,rousseau exercised at first an irresistible attraction1 but modern civilisation had too strong a hold on him2 he was too ,parisian in temper to acquiesce for long in the doctrine of ,arcadianism4 ,he composed a book on ,the ,savage to illustrate the text that the true standard of morality is the heart of primitive man1 and to prove that the best thing we could do is to return to the forest2 but in the process of writing it he seems to have come to the conclusion that the whole doctrine was fallacious4 ,footnote3 ,mercier's early essay3 ,des malheurs de la guerre et des avantages de la paix 7#agff74 ,on the savage3 ,l'homme sauvage 7#agfg74 ,for the opposite thesis see the ,songes philosophiques 7#agfh74 ,he describes a state of perfect happiness in a planet where beings live in perpetual contemplation of the infinite4 ,he appreciates the work of philosophers from ,socrates to ,leibnitz1 and describes ,rousseau as standing before the swelling stream1 but cursing it4 ,it may be suspected that the writings of ,leibnitz had much to do with ,mercier's conversion4 ,the transformation of his opinions was the work of a few months4 ,he then came forward with the opposite thesis that all events have been ordered for man's felicity1 and he began to work on an imaginary picture of the state to which man might find his way within seven hundred years4 ,l'an #bddj was published anonymously at ,amsterdam in #aggj4 ,footnote3 ,the author's name first appeared in the #crd ed41 #agii4 ,a ,german translation1 by ,c4 ,f4 ,weisse1 was published in ,london in #aggb4 ,the ,english version1 by ,dr4 ,hooper1 appeared in the same year1 and a new edition in #ahjb2 the translator changed the title to ,memoirs of the year ,two thousand five hundred4 ,its circulation in ,france was rigorously forbidden1 because it implied a merciless criticism of the administration4 ,it was reprinted in ,london and ,neuchatel1 and translated into ,english and ,german4 #c4 ,as the motto of his prophetic vision ,mercier takes the saying of ,leibnitz that the present is pregnant of the future4 ,thus the phase of civilisation which he imagines is proposed as the outcome of the natural and inevitable march of history4 ,the world of ,a4,d4 #bddj in which a man born in the eighteenth century who has slept an enchanted sleep awakes to find himself1 is composed of nations who live in a family concord rarely interrupted by war4 ,but of the world at large we hear little2 the imagination of ,mercier is concentrated on ,france1 and particularly ,paris4 ,he is satisfied with knowing that slavery has been abolished2 that the rivalry of ,france and ,england has been replaced by an indestructible alliance2 that the ,pope1 whose authority is still august1 has renounced his errors and returned to the customs of the primitive ,church2 that ,french plays are performed in ,china4 ,the changes in ,paris are a sufficient index of the general transformation4 ,the constitution of ,france is still monarchical4 ,its population has increased by one half2 that of the capital remains about the same4 ,paris has been rebuilt on a scientific plan2 its sanitary arrangements have been brought to perfection2 it is well lit2 and every provision has been made for the public safety4 ,private hospitality is so large that inns have disappeared1 but luxury at table is considered a revolting crime4 ,tea1 coffee1 and tobacco are no longer imported4 ,footnote3 ,in the first edition of the book commerce was abolished4 ,there is no system of credit2 everything is paid for in ready money1 and this practice has led to a remarkable simplicity in dress4 ,marriages are contracted only through mutual inclination2 dowries have been abolished4 ,education is governed by the ideas of ,rousseau1 and is directed1 in a narrow spirit1 to the promotion of morality4 ,italian1 ,german1 ,english1 and ,spanish are taught in schools1 but the study of the classical languages has disappeared2 ,latin does not help a man to virtue4 ,history too is neglected and discouraged1 for it is the disgrace of humanity1 every page being crowded with crimes and follies4 ,theatres are government institutions1 and have become the public schools of civic duties and morality4 ,footnote3 ,in #agfi ,mercier began to carry out his programme of composing and adapting plays for instruction and edification4 ,his theory of the true functions of the theatre he explained in a special treatise1 ,du theatre ou ,nouvel ,essai sur l'art dramatique 7#aggc74 ,the literary records of the past had been almost all deliberately destroyed by fire4 ,it was found expedient to do away with useless and pernicious books which only obscured truth or contained perpetual repetitions of the same thing4 ,a small closet in the public library sufficed to hold the ancient books which were permitted to escape the conflagration1 and the majority of these were ,english4 ,the writings of the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre were placed next those of ,fenelon4 ,his pen was weak1 but his heart was sublime4 ,seven ages have given to his great and beautiful ideas a just maturity4 ,his contemporaries regarded him as a visionary2 his dreams1 however1 have become realities4 ,the importance of men of letters as a social force was a favourite theme of ,mercier1 and in ,a4,d4 #bddj this will be duly recognised4 ,but the ,state control which weighed upon them so heavily in #aggj is not to be entirely abolished4 ,there is no preventive censorship to hinder publication1 but there are censors4 ,there are no fines or imprisonment1 but there are admonitions4 ,and if any one publishes a book defending principles which are considered dangerous1 he is obliged to go about in a black mask4 ,there is a state religion1 ,deism4 ,there is probably no one who does not believe in ,god4 ,but if any atheist were discovered1 he would be put through a course of experimental physics4 ,if he remained obdurate in his rejection of a palpable and salutary truth1 the nation would go into mourning and banish him from its borders4 ,every one has to work1 but labour no longer resembles slavery4 ,as there are no monks1 nor numerous domestics1 nor useless valets1 nor work-men employed on the production of childish luxuries1 a few daily hours of labour are sufficient for the public wants4 ,censors inquire into men's capacities1 assign tasks to the unemployed1 and if man be found fit for nothing but the consumption of food he is banished from the city4 ,these are some of the leading features of the ideal future to which ,mercier's imagination reached4 ,he did not put it forward as a final term4 ,later ages1 he said1 will go further1 for where can the perfectibility of man stop1 armed with geometry and the mechanical arts and chemistry8 ,but in his scanty prophecies of what science might effect he showed curiously little resource4 ,the truth is that this had not much interest for him1 and he did not see that scientific discoveries might transmute social conditions4 ,the world of #bddj1 its intolerably docile and virtuous society1 reflects two capital weaknesses in the speculation of the ,encyclopaedist period3 a failure to allow for the strength of human passions and interests1 and a deficient appreciation of the meaning of liberty4 ,much as the reformers acclaimed and fought for toleration1 they did not generally comprehend the value of the principle4 ,they did not see that in a society organised and governed by ,reason and ,justice themselves1 the unreserved toleration of false opinions would be the only palladium of progress2 or that a doctrinaire ,state1 composed of perfectly virtuous and deferential people1 would arrest development and stifle origiality1 by its ungenial if mild tyranny4 ,mercier's is no exception to the rule that ideal societies are always repellent2 and there are probably few who would not rather be set down in ,athens in the days of the vile ,aristophanes1 whose works ,mercier condemned to the flames1 than in his ,paris of #bddj4 #d4 ,that ,bohemian man of letters1 ,restif de la ,bretonne1 whose unedifying novels the ,parisians of #bddj would assuredly have rejected from their libraries1 published in #agij a heroic comedy representing how marriages would be arranged in the year #bjjj1 by which epoch he conceived that all social equalities would have disappeared in a fraternal society and twenty nations be allied to ,france under the wise supremacy of our well-beloved monarch ,louis ,francois ,,xxii4 ,it was the ,revolution that converted ,restif to the conception of ,progress1 for hitherto his master had been ,rousseau2 but it can hardly be doubted that the motif and title of his play were suggested by the romance of ,mercier4 ,l'an #bddj and ,l'an #bjjj are the first examples of the prophetic fiction which ,mr4 ,edward ,bellamy's ,looking ,backward was to popularise a hundred years later4 ,the ,count de ,volney's ,ruins was another popular presentation of the hopes which the theory of ,progress had awakened in ,france4 ,although the work was not published till after the outbreak of the ,revolution1 ,footnote3 ,les ,ruines des empires1 #aghi4 ,an ,english translation ran to a second edition 7#agie74 the plan had been conceived some years before4 ,volney was a traveller1 deeply interested in oriental and classical antiquities1 and1 like ,louis ,le ,roy1 he approached the problem of man's destinies from the point of view of a student of the revolutions of empires4 ,the book opens with melancholy reflections amid the ruins of ,palmyra4 ,thus perish the works of men1 and thus do nations and empires vanish away444 ,who can assure us that desolation like this will not one day be the lot of our own country8 ,some traveller like himself will sit by the banks of the ,seine1 the ,thames1 or the ,zuyder ,zee1 amid silent ruins1 and weep for a people inurned and their greatness changed into an empty name4 ,has a mysterious ,deity pronounced a secret malediction against the earth8 ,in this disconsolate mood he is visited by an apparition1 who unveils the causes of men's misfortunes and shows that they are due to themselves4 ,man is governed by natural invariable laws1 and he has only to study them to know the springs of his destiny1 the causes of his evils and their remedies4 ,the laws of his nature are self-love1 desire of happiness1 and aversion to pain2 these are the simple and prolific principles of everything that happens in the moral world4 ,man is the artificer of his own fate4 ,he may lament his weakness and folly2 but he has perhaps still more reason to be confident in his energies when he recollects from what point he has set out and to what heights he has been capable of elevating himself4 ,the supernatural visitant paints a rather rosy picture of the ancient ,egyptian and ,assyrian kingdoms4 ,but it would be a mistake to infer from their superficial splendour that the inhabitants generally were wise or happy4 ,the tendency of man to ascribe perfection to past epochs is merely the discoloration of his chagrin4 ,the race is not degenerating2 its misfortunes are due to ignorance and the mis-direction of self-love4 ,two principal obstacles to improvement have been the difficulty of transmitting ideas from age to age1 and that of communicating them rapidly from man to man4 ,these have been removed by the invention of printing4 ,the press is a memorable gift of celestial genius4 ,in time all men will come to understand the principles of individual happiness and public felicity4 ,then there will be established among the peoples of the earth an equilibrium of forces2 there will be no more wars1 disputes will be decided by arbitration1 and the whole species will become one great society1 a single family governed by the same spirit and by common laws1 enjoying all the felicity of which human nature is capable4 ,the accomplishment of this will be a slow process1 since the same leaven will have to assimilate an enormous mass of heterogeneous elements1 but its operation will be effectual4 ,here the genius interrupts his prophecy and exclaims1 turning toward the west1 ,the cry of liberty uttered on the farther shores of the ,atlantic has reached to the old continent4 ,a prodigious movement is then visible to their eyes in a country at the extremity of the ,mediterranean2 tyrants are overthrown1 legislators elected1 a code of laws is drafted on the principles of equality1 liberty1 and justice4 ,the liberated nation is attacked by neighbouring tyrants1 but her legislators propose to the other peoples to hold a general assembly1 representing the whole world1 and weigh every religious system in the balance4 ,the proceedings of this congress follow1 and the book breaks off incomplete4 ,it is not an arresting book2 to a reader of the present day it is positively tedious2 but it suited contemporary taste1 and1 appearing when ,france was confident that her ,revolution would renovate the earth1 it appealed to the hopes and sentiments of the movement4 ,it made no contribution to the doctrine of ,progress1 but it undoubtedly helped to popularise it4 ,,chapter ,,xi4 ,,the ,,french ,,revolution3 ,,condorcet ,i4 ,the authority which the advanced thinkers of ,france gained among the middle classes during the third quarter of the eighteenth century was promoted by the influence of fashion4 ,the new ideas of philosophers1 rationalists1 and men of science had interested the nobles and higher classes of society for two generations1 and were a common subject of discussion in the most distinguished salons4 ,voltaire's intimacy with ,frederick the ,great1 the relations of d',alembert and ,diderot with the ,empress ,catherine1 conferred on these men of letters1 and on the ideas for which they stood1 a prestige which carried great weight with the bourgeoisie4 ,humbler people1 too1 were as amenable as the great to the seduction of theories which supplied simple keys to the universe ,footnote3 ,taine said of the ,contrat ,social that it reduces political science to the strict application of an elementary axiom which renders all study unnecessary 7,la ,revolution1 vol4 i4 c4 iv4 ,sec4 iii474 and assumed that everybody was capable of judging for himself on the most difficult problems4 ,as well as the ,encyclopaedia1 the works of nearly all the leading thinkers were written for the general public not merely for philosophers4 ,the policy of the ,government in suppressing these dangerous publications did not hinder their diffusion1 and gave them the attraction of forbidden fruit4 ,in #aggj the avocat general 7,seguier7 acknowledged the futility of the policy4 ,the philosophers1 he said1 have with one hand sought to shake the throne1 with the other to upset the altars4 ,their purpose was to change public opinion on civil and religious institutions1 and the revolution has1 so to speak1 been effected4 ,history and poetry1 romances and even dictionaries1 have been infected with the poison of incredulity4 ,their writings are hardly published in the capital before they inundate the provinces like a torrent4 ,the contagion has spread into workshops and cottages4 ,footnote3 ,rocquain1 ,l',esprit revolutionnaire avant la ,revolution1 p4 #bgh4 ,the contagion spread1 but the official who wrote these words did not see that it was successful because it was opportune1 and that the minds of men were prepared to receive the seed of revolutionary ideas by the unspeakable corruption of the ,government and the ,church4 ,as ,voltaire remarked about the same time1 ,france was becoming ,encyclopaedist1 and ,europe too4 #b4 ,the influence of the subversive and rationalistic thinkers in bringing about the events of #aghi has been variously estimated by historians4 ,the truth probably lies in the succinct statement of ,acton that the confluence of ,french theory with ,american example caused the ,revolution to break out when it did4 ,the theorists aimed at reform1 not at political revolution2 and it was the stimulus of the ,declaration of ,rights of #aggd and the subsequent victory of the ,colonies that precipitated the convulsion1 at a time when the country had a better prospect of improvement than it ever had before #aggd1 when ,louis ,,xvi4 came to the throne4 ,but the theories had prepared ,france for radical changes1 and they guided the phases of the ,revolution4 ,the leaders had all the optimism of the ,encyclopaedists2 yet the most powerful single force was ,rousseau1 who1 though he denied ,progress and blasphemed civilisation1 had promulgated the doctrine of the sovereignty of the people1 giving it an attractive appearance of mathematical precision2 and to this doctrine the revolutionaries attached their optimistic hopes4 ,footnote3 ,it is interesting to observe how ,robespierre1 to whom the doctrines of ,rousseau were oracles1 could break out into admiration of the progress of civilised man1 as he did in the opening passage of his speech of #gth ,may #agid4 proposing the decree for the worship of the ,supreme ,being 7see the text in ,stephen1 ,orators of the ,french ,revolution1 ii4 #cia-ib74 ,the theory of equality seemed no longer merely speculative2 for the ,american constitution was founded on democratic equality1 whereas the ,english constitution1 which before had seemed the nearest approximation to the ideal of freedom1 was founded on inequality4 ,the philosophical polemic of the masters was waged with weapons of violence by the disciples4 ,chaumette and ,hebert1 the followers of d',holbach1 were destroyed by the disciples of ,rousseau4 ,in the name of the creed of the ,vicaire ,savoyard the ,jacobin ,club shattered the bust of ,helvetius4 ,mably and ,morelly had their disciples in ,babeuf and the socialists4 ,a naive confidence that the political upheaval meant regeneration and inaugurated a reign of justice and happiness pervaded ,france in the first period of the ,revolution1 and found a striking expression in the ceremonies of the universal ,federation in the ,champ-de-,mars on #adth ,july #agij4 ,the festival was theatrical enough1 decreed and arranged by the ,constituent ,assembly1 but the enthusiasm and optimism of the people who gathered to swear loyalty to the new ,constitution were genuine and spontaneous4 ,consciously or subconsciously they were under the influence of the doctrine of ,progress which leaders of opinion had for several decades been insinuating into the public mind4 ,it did not occur to them that their oaths and fraternal embraces did not change their minds or hearts1 and that1 as ,taine remarked1 they remained what ages of political subjection and one age of political literature had made them4 ,the assumption that new social machinery could alter human nature and create a heaven upon earth was to be swiftly and terribly confuted4 ,post uarios casus et tot discrimina rerum uenimus in ,latium1 but ,latium was to be the scene of sanguinary struggles4 ,another allied and fundamental fallacy1 into which all the philosophers and ,rousseau had more or less fallen1 was reflected and exposed by the ,revolution4 ,they had considered man in vacuo4 ,they had not seen that the whole development of a society is an enormous force which cannot be talked or legislated away2 they had ignored the power of social memory and historical traditions1 and misvalued the strength of the links which bind generations together4 ,so the ,revolutionaries imagined that they could break abruptly with the past1 and that a new method of government1 constructed on mathematical lines1 a constitution 7to use words of ,burke7 ready made and ready armed1 mature in its birth1 a perfect goddess of wisdom and of war1 hammered by our blacksmith midwives out of the brain of ,jupiter himself1 would create a condition of idyllic felicity in ,france1 and that the arrival of the millennium depended only on the adoption of the same principles by other nations4 ,the illusions created by the ,declaration of the ,rights of ,man on the #dth of ,august died slowly under the shadow of the ,terror2 but though the hopes of those who believed in the speedy regeneration of the world were belied1 some of the thoughtful did not lose heart4 ,there was one at least who did not waver in his faith that the movement was a giant's step on the path of man towards ultimate felicity1 however far he had still to travel4 ,condorcet1 one of the younger ,encyclopaedists1 spent the last months of his life1 under the menace of the guillotine1 in projecting a history of human ,progress4 #c4 ,condorcet was the friend and biographer of ,turgot1 and it was not unfitting that he should resume the design of a history of civilisation1 in the light of the idea of ,progress1 for which ,turgot had only left luminous suggestions4 ,he did not execute the plan1 but he completed an elaborate sketch in which the controlling ideas of the scheme are fully set forth4 ,his principles are to be found almost entirely in ,turgot4 ,but they have a new significance for ,condorcet4 ,he has given them wings4 ,he has emphasised1 and made deductions4 ,turgot wrote in the calm spirit of an inquirer4 ,condorcet spoke with the verve of a prophet4 ,he was prophesying under the shadow of death4 ,it is amazing that the optimistic ,sketch of a ,historical ,picture of the ,progress of the ,human ,mind should have been composed when he was hiding from ,robespierre in #agic4 ,footnote3 ,published in #agie4 ,condorcet was penetrated with the spirit of the ,encyclopaedists1 of whom he had been one1 and his attitude to ,christianity was that of ,voltaire and ,diderot4 ,turgot had treated the received religion respectfully4 ,he had acknowledged ,providence1 and1 though the place which he assigned to ,providence was that of a sort of honorary ,president of the development of civilisation who might disappear without affecting the proceedings1 there was a real difference between his views and those of his friend as to the role of ,christianity and the civilisation of the ,middle ,ages4 ,a more important difference between the two thinkers is connected with the different circumstances in which they wrote4 ,turgot did not believe in the necessity of violent changes2 he thought that steady reforms under the existing regime would do wonders for ,france4 ,before the ,revolution ,condorcet had agreed1 but he was swept away by its enthusiasm4 ,the victory of liberty in ,america and the increasing volume of the movement against slavery--one of the causes which most deeply stirred his heart--had heightened his natural optimism and confirmed his faith in the dogma of ,progress4 ,he felt the exhilaration of the belief that he was living through one of the greatest revolutions of the human race1 and he deliberately designed his book to be opportune to a crisis of mankind1 at which a picture of revolutions of the past will be the best guide4 ,feeling that he is personally doomed1 he consoles himself with brooding on the time1 however remote1 when the sun will shine on an earth of none but freemen1 with no master save reason2 for tyrants and slaves1 priests and their stupid or hypocritical tools1 will all have disappeared4 ,he is not satisfied with affirming generally the certainty of an indefinite progress in enlightenment and social welfare4 ,he sets himself to think out its nature1 to forecast its direction1 and determine its goal1 and insists1 as his predecessors had never done1 on the prospects of the distant future4 #d4 ,his ambitious design is1 in his own words1 to show the successive changes in human society1 the influence which each instant exerts on the succeeding instant1 and thus1 in its successive modifications1 the advance of the human species towards truth or happiness4 ,taken literally1 this is an impossible design1 and to put it forward as a practical proposition is as if a man were to declare his intention of writing a minute diary of the life of ,julius ,caesar from his birth to his death4 ,by stating his purpose in such terms1 ,condorcet reveals that he had no notion of the limitations which confine our knowledge of the past1 and that even if he had conceived a more modest and practicable programme he would have been incapable of executing it4 ,his formula1 however1 is worth remembering4 ,for the unattainable ideal which it expresses reminds us how many periods and passages of human experience must always remain books with seven seals4 ,condorcet distinguished ten periods of civilisation1 of which the tenth lies in the future1 but he has not justified his divisions and his epochs are not co-ordinate in importance4 ,yet his arrangement of the map of history is remarkable as an attempt to mark its sections not by great political changes but by important steps in knowledge4 ,the first three periods--the formation of primitive societies1 followed by the pastoral age1 and the agricultural age--conclude with the invention of alphabetic writing in ,greece4 ,the fourth is the history of ,greek thought1 to the definite division of the sciences in the time of ,aristotle4 ,in the fifth knowledge progresses and suffers obscuration under ,roman rule1 and the sixth is the dark age which continues to the time of the ,crusades4 ,the significance of the seventh period is to prepare the human mind for the revolution which would be achieved by the invention of printing1 with which the eighth period opens4 ,some of the best pages of the book develop the vast consequences of this invention4 ,the scientific revolution effected by ,descartes begins a new period1 which is now closed by the creation of the ,french ,republic4 ,the idea of the progress of knowledge had created the idea of social ,progress and remained its foundation4 ,it was therefore logical and inevitable that ,condorcet should take advance in knowledge as the clew to the march of the human race4 ,the history of civilisation is the history of enlightenment4 ,turgot had justified this axiom by formulating the cohesion of all modes of social activity4 ,condorcet insists on the indissoluble union between intellectual progress and that of liberty1 virtue1 and the respect for natural rights1 and on the effect of science in the destruction of prejudice4 ,all errors in politics and ethics have sprung1 he asserts1 from false ideas which are closely connected with errors in physics and ignorance of the laws of nature4 ,and in the new doctrine of ,progress he sees an instrument of enlightenment which is to give the last blow to the tottering edifice of prejudices4 ,it would not be useful to analyse ,condorcet's sketch or dwell on his obsolete errors and the defects of his historical knowledge4 ,his slight picture of the ,middle ,ages reflects the familiar view of all the eighteenth century philosophers4 ,the only contribution to social amelioration which he can discover in a period of nearly a millennium is the abolition of domestic slavery4 ,and so this period appears as an interruption of the onward march4 ,his inability to appreciate the historical role of the ,roman ,empire exhibits more surprising ignorance and prejudice4 ,but these particular defects are largely due to a fundamental error which runs through his whole book and was inherent in the social speculations of the ,encyclopaedists4 ,condorcet1 like all his circle1 ignored the preponderant part which institutions have played in social development4 ,so far as he considered them at all1 he saw in them obstacles to the free play of human reason2 not the spontaneous expression of a society corresponding to its needs or embodying its ideals1 but rather machinery deliberately contrived for oppressing the masses and keeping them in chains4 ,he did not see that if the ,progress in which he believed is a reality1 its possibility depends on the institutions and traditions which give to societies their stability4 ,in the following generation1 it would be pointed out that he fell into a manifest contradiction when he praised the relative perfection reached in some ,european countries in the eighteenth century1 and at the same time condemned as eminently retrograde all the doctrines and institutions which had been previously in control4 ,footnote3 ,comte4 ,cours de philosophie positive1 iv4 #bbh4 ,this error is closely connected with the other error1 previously noticed1 of conceiving man abstracted from his social environment and exercising his reason in vacuo4 #e4 ,the study of the history of civilisation has1 in ,condorcet's eyes1 two uses4 ,it enables us to establish the fact of ,progress1 and it should enable us to determine its direction in the future1 and thereby to accelerate the rate of progression4 ,by the facts of history and the arguments they suggest1 he undertakes to show that nature has set no term to the process of improving human faculties1 and that the advance towards perfection is limited only by the duration of the globe4 ,the movement may vary in velocity1 but it will never be retrograde so long as the earth occupies its present place in the cosmic system and the general laws of this system do not produce some catastrophe or change which would deprive the human race of the faculties and resources which it has hitherto possessed4 ,there will be no relapse into barbarism4 ,the guarantees against this danger are the discovery of true methods in the physical sciences1 their application to the needs of men1 the lines of communication which have been established among them1 the great number of those who study them1 and finally the art of printing4 ,and if we are sure of the continuous progress of enlightenment1 we may be sure of the continuous improvement of social conditions4 ,it is possible to foresee events1 if the general laws of social phenomena are known1 and these laws can be inferred from the history of the past4 ,by this statement ,condorcet justifies his bold attempt to sketch his tenth period of human history which lies in the future2 and announces the idea which was in the next generation to be worked out by ,comte4 ,but he cannot be said to have deduced himself any law of social development4 ,his forecast of the future is based on the ideas and tendencies of his own age4 ,footnote3 ,it is interesting to notice that the ablest of medieval ,arabic historians1 ,ibn ,khaldun 7fourteenth century71 had claimed that if history is scientifically studied future events may be predicted4 ,apart from scientific discoveries and the general diffusion of a knowledge of the laws of nature on which moral improvement depends1 he includes in his prophetic vision the cessation of war and the realisation of the less familiar idea of the equality of the sexes4 ,if he were alive to-day1 he could point with triumph to the fact that of these far-reaching projects one is being accomplished in some of the most progressive countries and the other is looked upon as an attainable aim by statesmen who are not visionaries4 ,the equality of the sexes was only a logical inference from the general doctrine of equality to which ,condorcet's social theory is reducible4 ,for him the goal of political progress is equality2 equality is to be the aim of social effort--the ideal of the ,revolution4 ,for it is the multitude of men that must be considered--the mass of workers1 not the minority who live on their labours4 ,hitherto they have been neglected by the historian as well as by the statesman4 ,the true history of humanity is not the history of some men4 ,the human race is formed by the mass of families who subsist almost entirely on the fruits of their own work1 and this mass is the proper subject of history1 not great men4 ,you may establish social equality by means of laws and institutions1 yet the equality actually enjoyed may be very incomplete4 ,condorcet recognises this and attributes it to three principal causes3 inequality in wealth2 inequality in position between the man whose means of subsistence are assured and can be transmitted to his family and the man whose means depend on his work and are limited by the term of his own life ,footnote3 ,he looked forward to the mitigation of this inequality by the development of life insurance which was then coming to the front42 and inequality in education4 ,he did not propose any radical methods for dealing with these difficulties1 which he thought would diminish in time1 without1 however1 entirely disappearing4 ,he was too deeply imbued with the views of the ,economists to be seduced by the theories of ,rousseau1 ,mably1 ,babeuf1 and others1 into advocating communism or the abolition of private property4 ,besides equality among the individuals composing a civilised society1 ,condorcet contemplated equality among all the peoples of the earth1--a uniform civilisation throughout the world1 and the obliteration of the distinction between advanced and retrograde races4 ,the backward peoples1 he prophesied1 will climb up to the condition of ,france and the ,united ,states of ,america1 for no people is condemned never to exercise its reason4 ,if the dogma of the perfectibility of human nature1 unguarded by any restrictions1 is granted1 this is a logical inference1 and we have already seen that it was one of the ideas current among the philosophers4 ,condorcet does not hesitate to add to his picture adventurous conjectures on the improvement of man's physical organisation1 and a considerable prolongation of his life by the advance of medical science4 ,we need only note this4 ,more interesting is the prediction that1 even if the compass of the human being's cerebral powers is inalterable1 the range1 precision1 and rapidity of his mental operations will be augmented by the invention of new instruments and methods4 ,the design of writing a history of human civilisation was premature1 and to have produced a survey of any durable value would have required the equipment of a ,gibbon4 ,condorcet was not even as well equipped as ,voltaire4 ,footnote3 ,but as he wrote without books the ,sketch was a marvellous tour de force4 ,the significance of his ,sketch lies in this1 that towards the close of an intellectual movement it concentrated attention on the most important1 though hitherto not the most prominent1 idea which that movement had disseminated1 and as it were officially announced human ,progress as the leading problem that claimed the interest of mankind4 ,with him ,progress was associated intimately with particular eighteenth century doctrines1 but these were not essential to it4 ,it was a living idea2 it survived the compromising theories which began to fall into discredit after the ,revolution1 and was explored from new points of view4 ,condorcet1 however1 wedded though his mind was to the untenable views of human nature current in his epoch and his circle1 did not share the tendency of leading philosophers to regard history as an unprofitable record of folly and crime which it would be well to obliterate or forget4 ,he recognised the interpretation of history as the key to human development1 and this principle controlled subsequent speculations on ,progress in ,france4 #f4 ,cabanis1 the physician1 was ,condorcet's literary executor1 and a no less ardent believer in human perfectibility4 ,looking at life and man from his own special point of view1 he saw in the study of the physical organism the key to the intellectual and moral improvement of the race4 ,it is by knowledge of the relations between his physical states and moral states that man can attain happiness1 through the enlargement of his faculties and the multiplication of enjoyments1 and that he will be able to grasp1 as it were1 the infinite in his brief existence by realising the certainty of indefinite progress4 ,his doctrine was a logical extension of the theories of ,locke and ,condillac4 ,if our knowledge is wholly derived from sensations1 our sensations depend on our sensory organs1 and mind becomes a function of the nervous system4 ,the events of the ,revolution quenched in him as little as in ,condorcet the sanguine confidence that it was the opening of a new era for science and art1 and thereby for the general ,progress of man4 ,the present is one of those great periods of history to which posterity will often look back with gratitude4 ,footnote3 ,picavet1 ,les ,ideologues1 p4 #bjc4 ,cabanis was born in #ageg and died in #ahjh4 ,he took an active part in the coup d'etat of the #ahth of ,brumaire 7#agii7 which was to lead to the despotism of ,napoleon4 ,he imagined that it would terminate oppression1 and was as enthusiastic for it as he and ,condorcet had been for the ,revolution ten years before4 ,you philosophers1 he wrote1 ,footnote3 ,ib4 p4 #bbd4 whose studies are directed to the improvement and happiness of the race1 you no longer embrace vain shadows4 ,having watched1 in alternating moods of hope and sadness1 the great spectacle of our ,revolution1 you now see with joy the termination of its last act2 you will see with rapture this new era1 so long promised to the ,french people1 at last open1 in which all the benefits of nature1 all the creations of genius1 all the fruits of time1 labour1 and experience will be utilised1 an era of glory and prosperity in which the dreams of your philanthropic enthusiasm should end by being realised4 ,it was an over-sanguine and characteristic greeting of the eighteenth to the nineteenth century4 ,cabanis was one of the most important of those thinkers who1 living into the new period1 took care that the ideas of their own generation should not be overwhelmed in the rising flood of reaction4 ,,chapter ,,xii4 ,,the ,,theory ,,of ,,progress ,,in ,,england #a4 ,the idea of ,progress could not help crossing the ,channel4 ,france and ,england had been at war in the first year of the eighteenth century1 they were at war in the last1 and their conflict for supremacy was the leading feature of the international history of the whole century4 ,but at no period was there more constant intellectual intimacy or more marked reciprocal influence between the two countries4 ,it was a commonplace that ,paris and ,london were the two great foci of civilisation1 and they never lost touch of each other in the intellectual sphere4 ,many of the principal works of literature that appeared in either country were promptly translated1 and some of the ,french books1 which the censorship rendered it dangerous to publish in ,paris1 were printed in ,london4 ,it was not indeed to be expected that the theory should have the same kind of success1 or exert the same kind of effect in ,england as in ,france4 ,england had her revolution behind her1 ,france had hers before her4 ,england enjoyed what were then considered large political liberties1 the envy of other lands2 ,france groaned under the tyranny of worthless rulers4 ,the ,english constitution satisfied the nation1 and the serious abuses which would now appear to us intolerable were not sufficient to awaken a passionate desire for reforms4 ,the general tendency of ,british thought was to see salvation in the stability of existing institutions1 and to regard change with suspicion4 ,now passionate desire for reform was the animating force which propagated the idea of ,progress in ,france4 ,and when this idea is translated from the atmosphere of combat1 in which it was developed by ,french men of letters1 into the calm climate of ,england1 it appears like a cold reflection4 ,again1 ,english thinkers were generally inclined to hold1 with ,locke1 that the proper function of government is principally negative1 to preserve order and defend life and property1 not to aim directly at the improvement of society1 but to secure the conditions in which men may pursue their own legitimate aims4 ,most of the ,french theorists believed in the possibility of moulding society indefinitely by political action1 and rested their hopes for the future not only on the achievements of science1 but on the enlightened activity of governments4 ,this difference of view tended to give to the doctrine of ,progress in ,france more practical significance than in ,england4 ,but otherwise ,british soil was ready to receive the idea4 ,there was the same optimistic temper among the comfortable classes in both countries4 ,shaftesbury1 the ,deist1 had struck this note at the beginning of the century by his sanguine theory1 which was expressed in ,pope's banal phrase3 ,whatever is1 is right1 and was worked into a system by ,hutcheson4 ,this optimism penetrated into orthodox circles4 ,progress1 far from appearing as a rival of ,providence1 was discussed in the interests of ,christianity by the ,scotch theologian1 ,turnbull4 ,footnote3 ,the ,principles of ,modern ,philosophy1 #agdj4 #b4 ,the theory of the indefinite progress of civilisation left ,hume cold4 ,there is little ground1 he argued1 to suppose that the world is eternal or incorruptible4 ,it is probably mortal1 and must therefore1 with all things in it1 have its infancy1 youth1 manhood1 and old age2 and man will share in these changes of state4 ,we must then expect that the human species should1 when the world is in the age of manhood1 possess greater bodily and mental vigour1 longer life1 and a stronger inclination and power of generation4 ,but it is impossible to determine when this stage is reached4 ,for the gradual revolutions are too slow to be discernible in the short period known to us by history and tradition4 ,physically and in mental powers men have been pretty much the same in all known ages4 ,the sciences and arts have flourished now and have again decayed1 but when they reached the highest perfection among one people1 the neighbouring peoples were perhaps wholly unacquainted with them4 ,we are therefore uncertain whether at present man is advancing to his point of perfection or declining from it4 ,footnote3 ,essay on the ,populousness of ,ancient ,nations1 ad init4 ,the argument is somewhat surprising in an eighteenth century thinker like ,hume1 but it did not prevent him from recognising the superiority of modern to ancient civilisation4 ,this superiority forms indeed the minor premiss in the general argument by which he confuted the commonly received opinion as to the populousness of ancient nations4 ,he insisted on the improvements in art and industry1 on the greater liberty and security enjoyed by modern men4 ,to one who considers coolly on the subject1 he remarked1 it will appear that human nature in general really enjoys more liberty at present in the most arbitrary government of ,europe than it ever did during the most flourishing period of ancient times4 ,footnote3 ,the justification of this statement was the abolition of slavery in ,europe4 ,he discussed many of the problems of civilisation1 especially the conditions in which the arts and sciences flourish1 ,footnote3 ,essay on the ,rise of ,arts and ,sciences4 and drew some general conclusions1 but he was too sceptical to suppose that any general synthesis of history is possible1 or that any considerable change for the better in the manners of mankind is likely to occur4 ,footnote3 ,cf4 ,essay on the ,idea of a ,perfect ,commonwealth1 ad init4 ,the greatest work dealing with social problems1 that ,britain produced in the eighteenth century1 was ,adam ,smith's ,wealth of ,nations1 and his luminous exposition of the effects of the division of labour was the most considerable contribution made by ,british thinkers of the age to the study of human development4 ,it is much more than a treatise on economic principles2 it contains a history of the gradual economic progress of human society1 and it suggests the expectation of an indefinite augmentation of wealth and well-being4 ,smith was entirely at one with the ,french ,economists on the value of opulence for the civilisation and happiness of mankind4 ,but it was indirectly perhaps that his work contributed most effectively to the doctrine of the ,progress of collective mankind4 ,footnote3 ,it has been observed by ,mr4 ,leslie ,stephen that the doctrine of the rights of man lies in the background of ,adam ,smith's speculations4 ,his teaching that the free commercial intercourse of all the peoples of the world1 unfettered by government policies1 was to the greatest advantage of each1 presented an ideal of the economic solidarity of the race1 which was one element in the ideal of ,progress4 ,and this principle soon began to affect practice4 ,pitt assimilated it when he was a young man1 and it is one of the distinctions of his statesmanship that he endeavoured to apply the doctrines of his master so far as the prevailing prejudices would allow him4 #c4 ,a few writers of less weight and fame than ,hume or ,smith expressly studied history in the light of ,progress4 ,it would not help us1 in following the growth of the idea1 to analyse the works of ,ferguson1 ,dunbar1 or ,priestley4 ,footnote3 ,in his ,essay on the ,history of ,civil ,society ,adam ,ferguson treated the growth of civilisation as due to the progressive nature of man1 which insists on carrying him forward to limits impossible to ascertain4 ,he formulated the process as a movement from simplicity to complexity1 but contributed little to its explanation4 ,but ,i will quote one passage from ,priestley1 the most eminent of the three1 and the most enthusiastic for the ,progress of man4 ,as the division of labour--the chief principle of organised society--is carried further he anticipates that 444 nature1 including both its materials and its laws1 will be more at our command2 men will make their situation in this world abundantly more easy and comfortable2 they will probably prolong their existence in it and will grow daily more happy4444 ,thus1 whatever was the beginning of this world1 the end will be glorious and paradisiacal beyond what our imaginations can now conceive4 ,extravagant as some people may suppose these views to be1 ,i think ,i could show them to be fairly suggested by the true theory of human nature and to arise from the natural course of human affairs4 ,footnote3 ,this passage of ,priestley occurs in his ,essay on the ,first ,principles of ,government and on the ,nature of ,political1 ,civil1 and ,religious ,liberty 7#agfh1 #bnd ed4 #agga71 pp4 #b-d4 ,his ,lectures on ,history and ,general ,policy appeared in #aghh4 ,priestley was a strict utilitarian1 who held that there is nothing intrinsically excellent in justice and veracity apart from their relation to happiness4 ,the degree of public happiness is measured by the excellence of religion1 science1 government1 laws1 arts1 commerce1 conveniences of life1 and especially by the degrees of personal security and personal liberty4 ,in all these the ancients were inferior1 and therefore they enjoyed less happiness4 ,the present state of ,europe is vastly preferable to what it was in any former period4 ,and the plan of this divine drama is opening more and more4 ,in the future1 ,knowledge will increase and accumulate and diffuse itself to the lower ranks of society1 who1 by degrees1 will find leisure for speculation2 and looking beyond their immediate employment1 they will consider the complex machine of society1 and in time understand it better than those who now write about it4 ,see his ,lectures1 pp4 #cga1 #chh sqq41 #ebh-ec4 ,the ,english thinker did not share all the views of his ,french masters4 ,as a ,unitarian1 he regarded ,christianity as a great remedy of vice and ignorance1 part of the divine plan2 and he ascribed to government a lesser role than they in the improvement of humanity4 ,he held1 for instance1 that the state should not interfere in education1 arguing that this art was still in the experimental stage1 and that the intervention of the civil power might stereotype a bad system4 ,not less significant1 though less influential1 than the writings of ,priestley and ,ferguson was the work of ,james ,dunbar1 ,professor of ,philosophy at ,aberdeen1 entitled ,essays on the ,history of ,mankind in ,rude and ,cultivated ,ages 7#bnd ed41 #agha74 ,he conceived history as progressive1 and inquired into the general causes which determine the gradual improvements of civilisation4 ,he dealt at length with the effects of climate and local circumstances1 but unlike the ,french philosophers did not ignore heredity4 ,while he did not enter upon any discussion of future developments1 he threw out incidentally the idea that the world may be united in a league of nations4 ,posterity1 he wrote1 may contemplate1 from a concurrence of various causes and events1 some of which are hastening into light1 the greater part1 or even the whole habitable globe1 divided among nations free and independent in all the interior functions of government1 forming one political and commercial system 7p4 #bhg74 ,dunbar's was an optimistic book1 but his optimism was more cautious than ,priestley's4 ,these are his final words3 ,if human nature is liable to degenerate1 it is capable of proportionable improvement from the collected wisdom of ages4 ,it is pleasant to infer from the actual progress of society1 the glorious possibilities of human excellence4 ,and1 if the principles can be assembled into view1 which most directly tend to diversify the genius and character of nations1 some theory may be raised on these foundations that shall account more systematically for past occurrences and afford some openings and anticipations into the eventual history of the world4 ,the problem of dark ages1 which an advocate of ,progress must explain1 was waved away by ,priestley in his ,lectures on ,history with the observation that they help the subsequent advance of knowledge by breaking the progress of authority4 ,footnote3 ,this was doubtless suggested to him by some remarks of ,hume in ,the ,rise of ,arts and ,sciences4 ,this is not much of a plea for such periods viewed as machinery in a ,providential plan4 ,the great history of the ,middle ,ages1 which in the words of its author describes the triumph of barbarism and religion1 had been completed before ,priestley's ,lectures appeared1 and it is remarkable that he takes no account of it1 though it might seem to be a work with which a theory of ,progress must come to terms4 ,yet the sceptical historian of the ,decline and ,fall of the ,roman ,empire1 who was more at home in ,french literature than any of his fellow-countrymen1 was not opposed to the theory of ,progress1 and he even states it in a moderate form4 ,having given reasons for believing that civilised society will never again be threatened by such an irruption of barbarians as that which oppressed the arms and institutions of ,rome1 he allows us to acquiesce in the pleasing conclusion that every age of the world has increased1 and still increases1 the real wealth1 the happiness1 the knowledge and perhaps the virtue of the human race4 ,the discoveries of ancient and modern navigators1 and the domestic history or tradition of the most enlightened nations1 represent the ,,human ,,savage1 naked both in mind and body1 and destitute of laws1 of arts1 of ideas1 and almost of language4 ,from this abject condition1 perhaps the primitive and universal state of man1 he has gradually arisen to command the animals1 to fertilise the earth1 to traverse the ocean1 and to measure the heavens4 ,his progress in the improvement and exercise of his mental and corporeal faculties has been irregular and various1 infinitely slow in the beginning1 and increasing by degrees with redoubled velocity2 ages of laborious ascent have been followed by a moment of rapid downfall2 and the several climates of the globe have felt the vicissitudes of light and darkness4 ,yet the experience of four thousand years should enlarge our hopes and diminish our apprehensions2 we cannot determine to what height the human species may aspire in their advances towards perfection2 but it may safely be presumed that no people1 unless the face of nature is changed1 will relapse into their original barbarism4 ,footnote3 ,decline and ,fall of the ,roman ,empire1 ch4 xxxviii4 ad fin4 ,but ,gibbon treats the whole subject as a speculation1 and he treats it without reference to any of the general principles on which ,french thinkers had based their theory4 ,he admits that his reasons for holding that civilisation is secure against a barbarous cataclysm may be considered fallacious2 and he also contemplates the eventuality that the fabric of sciences and arts1 trade and manufacture1 law and policy1 might be decayed by time4 ,if so1 the growth of civilisation would have to begin again1 but not ab initio4 ,for the more useful or at least more necessary arts1 which do not require superior talents or national subordination for their exercise1 and which war1 commerce1 and religious zeal have spread among the savages of the world1 would certainly survive4 ,these remarks are no more than obiter dicta but they show how the doctrine of ,progress was influencing those who were temperamentally the least likely to subscribe to extravagant theories4 #d4 ,the outbreak of the ,french ,revolution evoked a sympathetic movement among ,english progressive thinkers which occasioned the ,government no little alarm4 ,the dissenting minister ,dr4 ,richard ,price1 whose ,observations on ,civil ,liberty 7#aggf71 defending the action of the ,american colonies1 had enjoyed an immense success1 preached the sermon which provoked ,burke to write his ,reflections2 and ,priestley1 no less enthusiastic in welcoming the ,revolution1 replied to ,burke4 ,the ,government resorted to tyrannous measures2 young men who sympathised with the ,french movement and agitated for reforms at home were sent to ,botany ,bay4 ,paine was prosecuted for his ,rights of ,man1 which directly preached revolution4 ,but the most important speculative work of the time1 ,william ,godwin's ,political ,justice1 escaped the censorship because it was not published at a popular price4 ,footnote3 ,godwin had helped to get ,paine's book published in #agia1 and he was intimate with the group of revolutionary spirits who were persecuted by the ,government4 ,a good account of the episode will be found in ,brailsford's ,shelley1 ,godwin1 and their ,circle4 ,the ,enquiry concerning ,political ,justice1 begun in #agia1 appeared in #agic4 ,the second edition1 three years later1 shows the influence of ,condorcet's ,sketch1 which had appeared in the meantime4 ,godwin says that his original idea was to produce a work on political science to supersede ,montesquieu4 ,the note of ,montesquieu's political philosophy was respect for social institutions4 ,godwin's principle was that social institutions are entirely pernicious1 that they perpetuate harmful prejudices1 and are an almost insuperable obstacle to improvement4 ,if he particularly denounced monarchical government1 he regarded all government as evil1 and held that social progress would consist1 not in the reformation of government1 but in its abolition4 ,while he recognised that man had progressed in the past1 he considered history mainly a sequence of horrors1 and he was incapable of a calm survey of the course of civilisation4 ,in ,english institutions he saw nothing that did not outrage the principles of justice and benevolence4 ,the present state of humanity is about as bad as it could be4 ,it is easy to see the deep influence which the teaching of ,rousseau exercised on ,godwin4 ,without accepting the theory of ,arcadia ,godwin followed him in unsparing condemnation of existing conditions4 ,rousseau and ,godwin are the two great champions in the eighteenth century of the toiling and suffering masses4 ,but ,godwin drew the logical conclusion from ,rousseau's premisses which ,rousseau hesitated to draw himself4 ,the ,french thinker1 while he extolled the anarchical state of uncivilised society1 and denounced government as one of the sources of its corruption1 nevertheless sought the remedy in new social and political institutions4 ,godwin said boldly1 government is the evil2 government must go4 ,humanity can never be happy until all political authority and social institutions disappear4 ,now the peculiarity of ,godwin's position as a doctrinaire of ,progress lies in the fact that he entertained the same pessimistic view of some important sides of civilisation as ,rousseau1 and at the same time adopted the theories of ,rousseau's opponents1 especially ,helvetius4 ,his survey of human conditions seems to lead inevitably to pessimism2 then he turns round and proclaims the doctrine of perfectibility4 ,the explanation of this argument was the psychological theory of ,helvetius4 ,he taught1 as we saw1 and ,godwin developed the view in his own way1 that the natures and characters of men are moulded entirely by their environment--not physical1 but intellectual and moral environment1 and therefore can be indefinitely modified4 ,a man is born into the world without innate tendencies4 ,his conduct depends on his opinions4 ,alter men's opinions and they will act differently4 ,make their opinions conformable to justice and benevolence1 and you will have a just and benevolent society4 ,virtue1 as ,socrates taught1 is simply a question of knowledge4 ,the situation1 therefore1 is not hopeless4 ,for it is not due to the radical nature of man2 it is caused by ignorance and prejudice1 by governments and institutions1 by kings and priests4 ,transform the ideas of men1 and society will be transformed4 ,the ,french philosopher considered that a reformed system of educating children would be one of the most powerful means for promoting progress and bringing about the reign of reason2 and ,condorcet worked out a scheme of universal state education4 ,this was entirely opposed to ,godwin's principles4 ,state schools would only be another instrument of power in the hands of a government1 worse even than a state ,church4 ,they would strengthen the poisonous influence of kings and statesmen1 and establish instead of abolishing prejudices4 ,he seems to have relied entirely on the private efforts of enlightened thinkers to effect a gradual conversion of public opinion4 ,in his study of the perfectibility of man and the prospect of a future reign of general justice and benevolence1 ,godwin was even more visionary than ,condorcet1 as in his political views he was more radical than the ,revolutionists4 ,condorcet had at least sought to connect his picture of the future with a reasoned survey of the past1 and to find a chain of connection1 but the perfectibility of ,godwin hung in the air1 supported only by an abstract theory of the nature of man4 ,it can hardly be said that he contributed anything to the theoretical problem of civilisation4 ,his significance is that he proclaimed in ,england at an opportune moment1 and in a more impressive and startling way than a sober apostle like ,priestley1 the creed of progress taught by ,french philosophers1 though considerably modified by his own anarchical opinions4 #e4 ,perfectibility1 as expounded by ,condorcet and ,godwin1 encountered a drastic criticism from ,malthus1 whose ,essay on the ,principle of ,population appeared in its first form anonymously in #agih4 ,condorcet had foreseen an objection which might be raised as fatal to the realisation of his future state4 ,will not the progress of industry and happiness cause a steady increase in population1 and must not the time come when the number of the inhabitants of the globe will surpass their means of subsistence8 ,condorcet did not grapple with this question4 ,he contented himself with saying that such a period must be very far away1 and that by then the human race will have achieved improvements of which we can now scarcely form an idea4 ,similarly ,godwin1 in his fancy picture of the future happiness of mankind1 notices the difficulty and shirks it4 ,three-fourths of the habitable globe are now uncultivated4 ,the parts already cultivated are capable of immeasurable improvement4 ,myriads of centuries of still increasing population may pass away and the earth be still found sufficient for the subsistence of its inhabitants4 ,malthus argued that these writers laboured under an illusion as to the actual relations between population and the means of subsistence4 ,in present conditions the numbers of the race are only kept from increasing far beyond the means of subsistence by vice1 misery1 and the fear of misery4 ,footnote3 ,this observation had been made 7as ,hazlitt pointed out7 before ,malthus by ,robert ,wallace 7see ,a ,dissertation on the ,numbers of ,mankind1 p4 #ac1 #agec74 ,it was another book of ,wallace that suggested the difficulty to ,godwin4 ,in the conditions imagined by ,condorcet and ,godwin these checks are removed1 and consequently the population would increase with great rapidity1 doubling itself at least in twenty-five years4 ,but the products of the earth increase only in an arithmetical progression1 and in fifty years the food supply would be too small for the demand4 ,thus the oscillation between numbers and food supply would recur1 and the happiness of the species would come to an end4 ,godwin and his adherents could reply that one of the checks on over-population is prudential restraint1 which ,malthus himself recognised1 and that this would come more extensively into operation with that progress of enlightenment which their theory assumed4 ,footnote3 ,this is urged by ,hazlitt in his criticism of ,malthus in the ,spirit of the ,age4 ,but the criticisms of ,malthus dealt a trenchant blow to the doctrine that human reason1 acting through legislation and government1 has a virtually indefinite power of modifying the condition of society4 ,the difficulty1 which he stated so vividly and definitely1 was well calculated to discredit the doctrine1 and to suggest that the development of society could be modified by the conscious efforts of man only within restricted limits4 ,footnote3 ,the recent conclusions of ,mr4 ,knibbs1 statistician to the ,commonwealth of ,australia1 in vol4 i4 of his ,appendix to the ,census of the ,commonwealth1 have an interest in this connection4 ,i quote from an article in the ,times of ,august #e1 #aiah3 ,an eminent geographer1 the late ,mr4 ,e4 ,g4 ,ravenstein1 some years ago1 when the population of the earth was estimated at #adjj million1 foretold that about the middle of this century population would have reached a limit beyond which increase would be disastrous4 ,mr4 ,knibbs is not so pessimistic and is much more precise2 though he defers the disastrous culmination1 he has no doubt as to its inevitability4 ,the limits of human expansion1 he assures us1 are much nearer than popular opinion imagines2 the difficulty of food supplies will soon be most grave2 the exhaustion of sources of energy necessary for any notable increase of population1 or advance in the standards of living1 or both combined1 is perilously near4 ,the present rate of increase in the world's population cannot continue for four centuries4 #f4 ,the ,essay of ,malthus afterwards became one of the sacred books of the ,utilitarian sect1 and it is interesting to notice what ,bentham himself thought of perfectibility4 ,referring to the optimistic views of ,chastellux and ,priestley on progressive amelioration he observed that these glorious expectations remind us of the golden age of poetry4 ,for perfect happiness belongs to the imaginary region of philosophy and must be classed with the universal elixir and the philosopher's stone4 ,there will always be jealousies through the unequal gifts of nature and of fortune2 interests will never cease to clash and hatred to ensue2 painful labour1 daily subjection1 a condition nearly allied to indigence1 will always be the lot of numbers2 in art and poetry the sources of novelty will probably be exhausted4 ,but ,bentham was far from being a pessimist4 ,though he believes that we shall never make this world the abode of happiness1 he asserts that it may be made a most delightful garden compared with the savage forest in which men so long have wandered4 ,footnote3 ,works1 vol4 i4 p4 #aic seq4 #g4 ,the book of ,malthus was welcomed at the moment by all those who had been thoroughly frightened by the ,french ,revolution and saw in the modern philosophy1 as it was called1 a serious danger to society4 ,footnote3 ,both ,hazlitt and ,shelley thought that ,malthus was playing to the boxes1 by sophisms calculated to lull the oppressors of mankind into a security of everlasting triumph 7,revolt of ,islam1 ,preface74 ,bentham refers in his ,book of ,fallacies 7,works1 ii4 p4 #dfb7 to the unpopularity of the views of ,priestley1 ,godwin1 and ,condorcet3 to aim at perfection has been pronounced to be utter folly or wickedness4 ,vice and misery and the inexorable laws of population were a godsend to rescue the state from the precipice of perfectibility4 ,we can understand the alarm occasioned to believers in the established constitution of things1 for ,godwin's work--now virtually forgotten1 while ,malthus is still appealed to as a discoverer in social science--produced an immense effect on impressionable minds at the time4 ,all who prized liberty1 sympathised with the downtrodden1 and were capable of falling in love with social ideals1 hailed ,godwin as an evangelist4 ,no one1 said a contemporary1 was more talked of1 more looked up to1 more sought after2 and wherever liberty1 truth1 justice was the theme1 his name was not far off4 ,young graduates left the ,universities to throw themselves at the feet of the new ,gamaliel2 students of law and medicine neglected their professional studies to dream of the renovation of society and the march of mind4 ,godwin carried with him all the most sanguine and fearless understandings of the time4 ,footnote3 ,hazlitt1 ,spirit of the ,age3 article on ,godwin 7written in #ahad74 ,the most famous of his disciples were the poets ,wordsworth1 ,coleridge1 ,southey1 and afterwards ,shelley4 ,wordsworth had been an ardent sympathiser with the ,french ,revolution4 ,in its early days he had visited ,paris3 ,an emporium then ,of golden expectations and receiving ,freights every day from a new world of hope4 ,he became a ,godwinian in #agie1 when the ,terror had destroyed his faith in ,revolutionary ,france4 ,southey1 who had come under the influence of ,rousseau1 was initiated by ,coleridge into ,godwin's theories1 and in their utopian enthusiasm they formed the design of founding a pantisocratic settlement in ,america1 to show how happiness could be realised in a social environment in which duty and interest coincide and consequently all are virtuous4 ,the plan anticipated the experiments of ,owen and ,cabet2 but the pantisocrats did not experience the disappointments of the socialists1 for it was never carried out4 ,coleridge and ,southey as well as ,wordsworth soon abandoned their ,godwinian doctrines4 ,footnote3 ,in letters of #agig and #agih ,coleridge repudiated the ,french doctrines and ,godwin's philosophy4 ,see ,cestre1 ,la ,revolution francaise et les poetes anglais 7#aghi-ahji71 pp4 #chi1 #dad4 ,they had1 to use a phrase of ,hazlitt1 lost their way in ,utopia1 and they gave up the abstract and mechanical view of society which the ,french philosophy of the eighteenth century taught1 for an organic conception in which historic sentiment and the wisdom of our ancestors had their due place4 ,wordsworth could presently look back and criticise his ,godwinian phase as that of ,a proud and most presumptuous confidence ,in the transcendent wisdom of the age ,and its discernment4 ,footnote3 ,excursion1 ,book ii4 ,he and ,southey became conservative pillars of the state4 ,yet ,southey1 reactionary as he was in politics1 never ceased to believe in social ,progress4 ,footnote3 ,see his ,colloquies2 and ,shelley1 writing in #ahaa1 says that ,southey looks forward to a state when all shall be perfected and matter become subjected to the omnipotence of mind 7,dowden1 ,life of ,shelley1 i4 p4 #bab74 ,compare below1 p4 #cbe4 ,amelioration was indeed to be effected by slow and cautious reforms1 with the aid of the ,church1 but the intellectual aberrations of his youth had left an abiding impression4 ,while these poets were sitting at ,godwin's feet1 ,shelley was still a child4 ,but he came across ,political ,justice at ,eton2 in his later life he reread it almost every year2 and when he married ,godwin's daughter he was more ,godwinian than ,godwin himself4 ,hazlitt1 writing in #ahad1 says that ,godwin's reputation had sunk below the horizon1 but ,shelley never ceased to believe in his theory1 though he came to see that the regeneration of man would be a much slower process than he had at first imagined4 ,in the immature poem ,queen ,mab the philosophy of ,godwin was behind his description of the future1 and it was behind the longer and more ambitious poems of his maturer years4 ,the city of gold1 of the ,revolt of ,islam1 is ,godwin's future society1 and he describes that poem as an experiment on the temper of the public mind as to how far a thirst for a happier condition of moral and political society survives1 among the enlightened and refined1 the tempests which have shaken the age in which we live4 ,as to ,prometheus ,unbound his biographer observes3 ,footnote3 ,dowden1 ib4 ii4 p4 #bfd4 ,elsewhere ,dowden remarks on the singular insensibility of ,shelley's mind to the wisdom or sentiment of history 7i4 p4 #ee74 ,all the glittering fallacies of ,political ,justice--now sufficiently tarnished--together with all its encouraging and stimulating truths1 may be found in the caput mortuum left when the critic has reduced the poetry of the ,prometheus to a series of doctrinaire statements4 ,the same dream inspired the final chorus of ,hellas4 ,shelley was the poet of perfectibility4 #h4 ,the attraction of perfectibility reached beyond the ranks of men of letters1 and in ,robert ,owen1 the benevolent millowner of ,lanark1 it had an apostle who based upon it a very different theory from that of ,political ,justice and became one of the founders of modern socialism4 ,the success of the idea of ,progress has been promoted by its association with socialism4 ,footnote3 ,the word was independently invented in ,england and ,france4 ,an article in the ,poor ,man's ,guardian 7a periodical edited by ,h4 ,hetherington1 afterwards by ,bronterre ,o',brien71 ,aug4 #bd1 #ahcc1 is signed ,a ,socialist2 and in #ahcd socialisme is opposed to individualism by ,p4 ,leroux in an article in the ,revue ,encyclopedique4 ,the word is used in the ,new ,moral ,world1 and from #ahcf was applied to the ,owenites4 ,see ,dolleans1 ,robert ,owen 7#aijg71 p4 #cje4 ,the first phase of socialism1 what has been called its sentimental phase1 was originated by ,saint-,simon in ,france and ,owen in ,england at about the same time2 ,marx was to bring it down from the clouds and make it a force in practical politics4 ,but both in its earlier and in its later forms the economical doctrines rest upon a theory of society depending on the assumption1 however disguised1 that social institutions have been solely responsible for the vice and misery which exist1 and that institutions and laws can be so changed as to abolish misery and vice4 ,that is pure eighteenth century doctrine2 and it passed from the revolutionary doctrinaires of that period to the constructive socialists of the nineteenth century4 ,owen learned it probably from ,godwin1 and he did not disguise it4 ,his numerous works enforce it ad nauseam4 ,he began the propagation of his gospel by his ,new ,view of ,society1 or ,essays on the formation of the human character1 preparatory to the development of a plan for gradually ameliorating the condition of mankind1 which he dedicated to the ,prince ,regent4 ,footnote3 #crd ed4 #ahag4 ,the ,essays had appeared separately in #ahac-ad4 ,here he lays down that any general character1 from the best to the worst1 may be given to any community1 even to the world at large1 by the application of proper means2 which means are to a great extent at the command and under the control of those who have influence in the affairs of men4 ,footnote3 ,p4 #ai4 ,the string on which he continually harps is that it is the cardinal error in government to suppose that men are responsible for their vices and virtues1 and therefore for their actions and characters4 ,these result from education and institutions1 and can be transformed automatically by transforming those agencies4 ,owen founded several short-lived journals to diffuse his theories4 ,the first number of the ,new ,moral ,world 7#ahcd-cf7 ,footnote3 ,this was not a journal1 but a series of pamphlets which appeared in #ahcf-ahdd4 ,other publications of ,owen were3 ,outline of the ,rational ,system of ,society 7#fth ed41 ,leeds1 #ahdj72 ,the ,revolution in the ,mind and ,practice of the ,human ,race1 or the coming change from ,irrationality to ,rationality 7#ahdi72 ,the ,future of the ,human ,race1 or a great1 glorious and peaceful ,revolution1 near at hand1 to be effected through the agency of departed spirits of good and superior men and women 7#ahec72 ,the ,new ,existence of ,man upon ,earth1 ,parts i4-viii41 #ahed-ee4 proclaimed the approach of an ideal society in which there will be no ignorance1 no poverty1 and no charity--a system which will ensure the happiness of the human race throughout all future ages1 to replace one which1 so long as it shall be maintained1 must produce misery to all4 ,his own experimental attempt to found such a society on a miniature scale in ,america proved a ludicrous failure4 ,it is to be observed that in these socialist theories the conception of ,progress as indefinite tends to vanish or to lose its significance4 ,if the millennium can be brought about at a stroke by a certain arrangement of society1 the goal of development is achieved2 we shall have reached the term1 and shall have only to live in and enjoy the ideal state--a menagerie of happy men4 ,there will be room for further1 perhaps indefinite1 advance in knowledge1 but civilisation in its social character becomes stable and rigid4 ,once man's needs are perfectly satisfied in a harmonious environment there is no stimulus to cause further changes1 and the dynamic character of history disappears4 ,theories of ,progress are thus differentiating into two distinct types1 corresponding to two radically opposed political theories and appealing to two antagonistic temperaments4 ,the one type is that of constructive idealists and socialists1 who can name all the streets and towers of the city of gold1 which they imagine as situated just round a promontory4 ,the development of man is a closed system2 its term is known and is within reach4 ,the other type is that of those who1 surveying the gradual ascent of man1 believe that by the same interplay of forces which have conducted him so far and by a further development of the liberty which he has fought to win1 he will move slowly towards conditions of increasing harmony and happiness4 ,here the development is indefinite2 its term is unknown1 and lies in the remote future4 ,individual liberty is the motive force1 and the corresponding political theory is liberalism2 whereas the first doctrine naturally leads to a symmetrical system in which the authority of the state is preponderant1 and the individual has little more value than a cog in a well-oiled wheel3 his place is assigned2 it is not his right to go his own way4 ,of this type the principal example that is not socialistic is1 as we shall see1 the philosophy of ,comte4 ,,chapter ,,xiii4 ,,german ,,speculations ,,on ,,progress #a4 ,the philosophical views current in ,germany during the period in which the psychology of ,locke was in fashion in ,france and before the genius of ,kant opened a new path1 were based on the system of ,leibnitz4 ,we might therefore expect to find a theory of ,progress developed there1 parallel to the development in ,france though resting on different principles4 ,for ,leibnitz1 as we saw1 provided in his cosmic optimism a basis for the doctrine of human ,progress1 and he had himself incidentally pointed to it4 ,this development1 however1 was delayed4 ,it was only towards the close of the period--which is commonly known as the age of ,illumination--that ,progress came to the front1 and it is interesting to observe the reason4 ,wolf was the leading successor and interpreter of ,leibnitz4 ,he constrained that thinker's ideas into a compact logical system which swayed ,germany till ,kant swept it away4 ,in such cases it usually happens that some striking doctrines and tendencies of the master are accentuated and enforced1 while others are suffered to drop out of sight4 ,so it was here4 ,in the ,wolfian system1 ,leibnitz's conception of development was suffered to drop out of sight1 and the dynamic element which animated his speculation disappeared4 ,in particular1 he had laid down that the sum of motive forces in the physical world is constant4 ,his disciples proceeded to the inference that the sum of morality in the ethical world is constant4 ,this dogma obviously eliminates the possibility of ethical improvement for collective humanity4 ,and so we find ,mendelssohn1 who was the popular exponent of ,wolf's philosophy1 declaring that progress is only for the individual2 but that the whole of humanity here below in the course of time shall always progress and perfect itself seems to me not to have been the purpose of ,providence4 ,footnote3 ,see ,bock1 ,jakob ,wegelin als ,geschichtstheoretiker1 in ,leipsiger ,studien1 ix4 #d1 pp4 #bc-g 7#aijb74 ,the publication of the ,nouveaux ,essais in #agfe induced some thinkers to turn from the dry bones of ,wolf to the spirit of ,leibnitz himself4 ,and at the same time ,french thought was penetrating4 ,in consequence of these influences the final phase of the ,german ,illumination is marked by the appearance of two or three works in which ,progress is a predominating idea4 ,we see this reaction against ,wolf and his static school in a little work published by ,herder in #aggd--;a philosophy of history for the cultivation of mankind4 ,there is continuous development1 he declares1 and one people builds upon the work of another4 ,we must judge past ages1 not by the present1 but relatively to their own particular conditions4 ,what exists now was never possible before1 for everything that man accomplishes is conditioned by time1 climate1 and circumstances4 ,six years later ,lessing's pamphlet on the ,education of the ,human ,race appeared1 couched in the form of aphoristic statements1 and to a modern reader1 one may venture to say1 singularly wanting in argumentative force4 ,the thesis is that the drama of history is to be explained as the education of man by a progressive series of religions1 a series not yet complete1 for the future will produce another revelation to lift him to a higher plane than that to which ,christ has drawn him up4 ,this interpretation of history proclaimed ,progress1 but assumed an ideal and applied a measure very different from those of the ,french philosophers4 ,the goal is not social happiness1 but a full comprehension of ,god4 ,philosophy of religion is made the key to the philosophy of history4 ,the work does not amount to more than a suggestion for a new synthesis1 but it was opportune and arresting4 ,herder meanwhile had been thinking1 and in #aghd he gave the ,german world his survey of man's career--,ideas of the ,philosophy of the ,history of ,humanity4 ,in this famous work1 in which we can mark the influence of ,french thinkers1 especially ,montesquieu1 as well as of ,leibnitz1 he attempted1 though on very different lines1 the same task which ,turgot and ,condorcet planned1 a universal history of civilisation4 ,the ,deity designed the world but never interferes in its process1 either in the physical cosmos or in human history4 ,human history itself1 civilisation1 is a purely natural phenomenon4 ,events are strictly enchained2 continuity is unbroken2 what happened at any given time could have happened only then1 and nothing else could have happened4 ,herder's rigid determinism not only excludes ,voltaire's chance but also suppresses the free play of man's intelligent will4 ,man cannot guide his own destinies2 his actions and fortunes are determined by the nature of things1 his physical organisation and physical environment4 ,the fact that ,god exists in inactive ease hardly affects the fatalistic complexion of this philosophy2 but it is perhaps a mitigation that the world was made for man2 humanity is its final cause4 ,the variety of the phases of civilisation that have appeared on earth is due to the fact that the possible manifestations of human nature are very numerous and that they must all be realised4 ,the lower forms are those in which the best1 which means the most human1 faculties of our nature are undeveloped4 ,the highest has not yet been realised4 ,the flower of humanity1 captive still in its germ1 will blossom out one day into the true form of man like unto ,god1 in a state of which no terrestrial man can imagine the greatness and the majesty4 ,footnote3 ,ideen1 v4 #e4 ,herder is not a systematic thinker--indeed his work abounds in contradictions--and he has not made it clear how far this full epiphany results from the experiences of mankind in preceding phases4 ,he believes that life is an education for humanity 7he has taken the phrase of ,lessing71 that good progressively develops1 that reason and justice become more powerful4 ,this is a doctrine of ,progress1 but he distinctly opposes the hypothesis of a final and unique state of perfection as the goal of history1 which would imply that earlier generations exist for the sake of the later and suffer in order to ensure the felicity of remote posterity--a theory which offends his sense of justice and fitness4 ,on the contrary1 man can realise happiness equally in every stage of civilisation4 ,all forms of society are equally legitimate1 the imperfect as well as the perfect2 all are ends in themselves1 not mere stages on the way to something better4 ,and a people which is happy in one of these inferior states has a perfect right to remain in it4 ,thus the ,progress which ,herder sees is1 to use his own geometrical illustration1 a sequence of unequal and broken curves1 corresponding to different maxima and minima4 ,each curve has its own equation1 the history of each people is subject to the laws of its own environment2 but there is no general law controlling the whole career of humanity4 ,footnote3 ,ib4 xv4 #c4 ,the power of ideas in history1 which ,herder failed to appreciate1 was recognised by a contemporary savant from whom he might have learned4 ,jakob ,wegelin1 a ,swiss1 had1 at the invitation of ,frederick the ,great1 settled in ,berlin1 where he spent the last years of his life and devoted his study to the theory of history4 ,his merit was to have perceived that external facts are penetrated and governed by spiritual forces and guiding ideas1 and that the essential and permanent in history is conditioned by the nature and development of ideas4 7,dierauer1 quoted by ,bock1 op4 cit4 p4 #ac47 ,he believed in the progressive development of mankind as a whole1 but as his learned brochures seem to have exerted no influence1 it would be useless here to examine more closely his views1 which are buried in the transactions of the ,prussian ,academy of ,science4 ,in ,switzerland he came under the influence of ,rousseau and d',alembert4 ,after he moved to ,berlin 7#agfe7 he fell under that of ,leibnitz4 ,it may be noted 7#a7 that he deprecated attempts at writing a universal history as premature until an adequate knowledge of facts had been gained1 and this would demand long preliminary labours2 7#b7 that he discussed the question whether history is an indefinite progression or a series of constant cycles1 and decided for the former view4 7,memoire sur le cours periodique1 #aghe74 ,bock's monograph is the best study of ,wegelin2 but see also ,flint's observations in ,philosophy of ,history1 vol4 i4 7#ahgd74 ,herder brought down his historical survey only as far as the sixteenth century4 ,it has been suggested ,footnote3 ,javary1 ,de l'idee de progres1 p4 #fi4 that if he had come down further he might have comprehended the possibility of a deliberate transformation of societies by the intelligent action of the human will--an historical force to which he does not do justice1 apparently because he fancied it incompatible with strict causal sequence4 ,the value of his work does not lie in the philosophical principles which he applied4 ,nor was it a useful contribution to history2 of him it has been said1 as of ,bossuet1 that facts bent like grass under his feet4 ,footnote3 ,jouffroy1 ,melanges1 p4 #ha4 ,but it was a notable attempt to do for human phenomena what ,leibnitz in his ,theodicy sought to do for the cosmos1 and it pointed the way to the rationalistic philosophies of history which were to be a feature of the speculations of the following century4 #b4 ,the short essay of ,kant1 which he clumsily called the ,idea of a ,universal ,history on a ,cosmopolitical ,plan1 ,footnote3 #aghd4 ,this work of ,kant was translated by ,de ,quincey 7,works1 vol4 ix4 #dbh sqq41 ed4 ,masson71 who is responsible for cosmopolitical as the rendering of weltburgerlich4 approaches the problems raised by the history of civilisation from a new point of view4 ,he starts with the principle of invariable law4 ,on any theory of free will1 he says1 human actions are as completely under the control of universal-laws of nature as any other physical phenomena4 ,this is illustrated by statistics4 ,registers of births1 deaths1 and marriages show that these events occur with as much conformity to laws of nature as the oscillations of the weather4 ,it is the same with the great sequence of historical events4 ,taken alone and individually1 they seem incoherent and lawless2 but viewed in their connection1 as due to the action not of individuals but of the human species1 they do not fail to reveal a regular stream of tendency4 ,pursuing their own often contradictory purposes1 individual nations and individual men are unconsciously promoting a process to which if they perceived it they would pay little regard4 ,individual men do not obey a law4 ,they do not obey the laws of instinct like animals1 nor do they obey1 as rational citizens of the world would do1 the laws of a preconcerted plan4 ,if we look at the stage of history we see scattered and occasional indications of wisdom1 but the general sum of men's actions is a web of folly1 childish vanity1 and often even of the idlest wickedness and spirit of destruction4 ,the problem for the philosopher is to discover a meaning in this senseless current of human actions1 so that the history of creatures who pursue no plan of their own may yet admit of a systematic form4 ,the clew to this form is supplied by the predispositions of human nature4 ,i have stated this problem almost in ,kant's words1 and as he might have stated it if he had not introduced the conception of final causes4 ,his use of the postulate of final causes without justifying it is a defect in his essay4 ,he identifies what he well calls a stream of tendency with a natural purpose4 ,he makes no attempt to show that the succession of events is such that it cannot be explained without the postulate of a purpose4 ,his solution of the problem is governed by this conception of finality1 and by the unwarranted assumption that nature does nothing in vain4 ,he lays down that all the tendencies to which any creature is predisposed by its nature must in the end be developed perfectly and agreeably to their final purpose4 ,those predispositions in man which serve the use of his reason are therefore destined to be fully developed4 ,this destiny1 however1 cannot be realised in the individual2 it can only be realised in the species4 ,for reason works tentatively1 by progress and regress4 ,each man would require an inordinate length of time to make a perfect use of his natural tendencies4 ,therefore1 as life is short1 an incalculable series of generations is needed4 ,the means which nature employs to develop these tendencies is the antagonism which in man's social state exists between his gregarious and his antigregarious tendencies4 ,his antigregarious nature expresses itself in the desire to force all things to comply to his own humour4 ,hence ambition1 love of honour1 avarice4 ,these were necessary to raise mankind from the savage to the civilised state4 ,but for these antisocial propensities men would be gentle as sheep1 and an ,arcadian life would arise1 of perfect harmony and mutual love1 such as must suffocate and stifle all talents in their very germs4 ,nature1 knowing better than man what is good for the species1 ordains discord4 ,she is to be thanked for competition and enmity1 and for the thirst of power and wealth4 ,for without these the final purpose of realising man's rational nature would remain unfulfilled4 ,this is ,kant's answer to ,rousseau4 ,the full realisation of man's rational nature is possible only in a universal civil society founded on political justice4 ,the establishment of such a society is the highest problem for the human species4 ,kant contemplates1 as the political goal1 a confederation of states in which the utmost possible freedom shall be united with the most rigorous determination of the boundaries of freedom4 ,is it reasonable to suppose that a universal or cosmopolitical society of this kind will come into being2 and if so1 how will it be brought about8 ,political changes in the relations of states are generally produced by war4 ,wars are tentative endeavours to bring about new relations and to form new political bodies4 ,are combinations and recombinations to continue until by pure chance some rational self-supporting system emerges8 ,or is it possible that no such condition of society may ever arrive1 and that ultimately all progress may be overwhelmed by a hell of evils8 ,or1 finally1 is ,nature pursuing her regular course of raising the species by its own spontaneous efforts and developing1 in the apparently wild succession of events1 man's originally implanted tendencies8 ,kant accepts the last alternative on the ground that it is not reasonable to assume a final purpose in particular natural processes and at the same time to assume that there is no final purpose in the whole4 ,thus his theory of ,progress depends on the hypothesis of final causes4 ,it follows that to trace the history of mankind is equivalent to unravelling a hidden plan of ,nature for accomplishing a perfect civil constitution for a universal society2 since a universal society is the sole state in which the tendencies of human nature can be fully developed4 ,we cannot determine the orbit of the development1 because the whole period is so vast and only a small fraction is known to us1 but this is enough to show that there is a definite course4 ,kant thinks that such a cosmopolitical history1 as he calls it1 is possible1 and that if it were written it would give us a clew opening up a consolatory prospect into futurity1 in which at a remote distance we shall discover the human species seated upon an eminence won by infinite toil1 where all the germs are unfolded which nature has implanted and its own destination upon this earth accomplished4 #c4 ,but to see the full bearing of ,kant's discussion we must understand its connection with his ethics4 ,for his ethical theory is the foundation and the motive of his speculation on ,progress4 ,the progress on which he lays stress is moral amelioration2 he refers little to scientific or material progress4 ,for him morality was an absolute obligation founded in the nature of reason4 ,such an obligation presupposes an end to be attained1 and this end is a reign of reason under which all men obeying the moral law mutually treat each other as ends in themselves4 ,such an ideal state must be regarded as possible1 because it is a necessary postulate of reason4 ,from this point of view it may be seen that ,kant's speculation on universal history is really a discussion whether the ideal state1 which is required as a subjective postulate in the interest of ethics1 is likely to be realised objectively4 ,now1 ,kant does not assert that because our moral reason must assume the possibility of this hypothetical goal civilisation is therefore moving towards it4 ,that would be a fallacy into which he was incapable of falling4 ,civilisation is a phenomenon1 and anything we know about it can only be inferred from experience4 ,his argument is that there are actual indications of progress in this desirable direction4 ,he pointed to the contemporary growth of civil liberty and religious liberty1 and these are conditions of moral improvement4 ,so far his argument coincides in principle with that of ,french theorists of ,progress4 ,but ,kant goes on to apply to these data the debatable conception of final causes1 and to infer a purpose in the development of humanity4 ,only this inference is put forward as a hypothesis1 not as a dogma4 ,it is probable that what hindered ,kant from broaching his theory of ,progress with as much confidence as ,condorcet was his perception that nothing could be decisively affirmed about the course of civilisation until the laws of its movement had been discovered4 ,he saw that this was a matter for scientific investigation4 ,he says expressly that the laws are not yet known1 and suggests that some future genius may do for social phenomena what ,kepler and ,newton did for the heavenly bodies4 ,as we shall see1 this is precisely what some of the leading ,french thinkers of the next generation will attempt to do4 ,but cautiously though he framed the hypothesis ,kant evidently considered ,progress probable4 ,he recognised that the most difficult obstacle to the moral advance of man lies in war and the burdens which the possibility of war imposes4 ,and he spent much thought on the means by which war might be abolished4 ,he published a philosophical essay on ,perpetual ,peace1 in which he formulated the articles of an international treaty to secure the disappearance of war4 ,he considered that1 while a universal republic would be the positive ideal1 we shall probably have to be contented with what he calls a negative substitute1 consisting in a federation of peoples bound by a peace-alliance guaranteeing the independence of each member4 ,but to assure the permanence of this system it is essential that each state should have a democratic constitution4 ,for such a constitution is based on individual liberty and civil equality4 ,all these changes should be brought about by legal reforms2 revolutions--he was writing in #agie---;cannot be justified4 ,we see the influence of ,rousseau's ,social ,contract and that of the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre1 with whose works ,kant was acquainted4 ,there can be little doubt that it was the influence of ,french thought1 so powerful in ,germany at this period1 that turned ,kant's mind towards these speculations1 which belong to the latest period of his life and form a sort of appendix to his philosophical system4 ,the theory of ,progress1 the idea of universal reform1 the doctrine of political equality--,kant examined all these conceptions and appropriated them to the service of his own highly metaphysical theory of ethics4 ,in this new association their spirit was changed4 ,in ,france1 as we saw1 the theory of ,progress was generally associated with ethical views which could find a metaphysical basis in the sensationalism of ,locke4 ,a moral system which might be built on sensation1 as the primary mental fact1 was worked out by ,helvetius4 ,but the principle that the supreme law of conduct is to obey nature had come down as a practical philosophy from ,rabelais and ,montaigne through ,moliere to the eighteenth century4 ,it was reinforced by the theory of the natural goodness of man4 ,jansenism had struggled against it and was defeated4 ,after theology it was the turn of metaphysics4 ,kant's moral imperative marked the next stage in the conflict of the two opposite tendencies which seek natural and ultra-natural sanctions for morality4 ,hence the idea of progress had a different significance for ,kant and for its ,french exponents1 though his particular view of the future possibly in store for the human species coincided in some essential points with theirs4 ,but his theory of life gives a different atmosphere to the idea4 ,in ,france the atmosphere is emphatically eudaemonic2 happiness is the goal4 ,kant is an uncompromising opponent of eudaemonism4 ,if we take enjoyment or happiness as the measure1 it is easy1 he says1 to evaluate life4 ,its value is less than nothing4 ,for who would begin one's life again in the same conditions1 or even in new natural conditions1 if one could choose them oneself1 but of which enjoyment would be the sole end8 ,there was1 in fact1 a strongly-marked vein of pessimism in ,kant4 ,one of the ablest men of the younger generation who were brought up on his system founded the philosophical pessimism--very different in range and depth from the sentimental pessimism of ,rousseau--which was to play a remarkable part in ,german thought in the nineteenth century4 ,footnote3 ,kant's pessimism has been studied at length by von ,hartmann1 in ,zur ,geschichte und ,begrundung des ,pessimismus 7#ahhj74 ,schopenhauer's unpleasant conclusion that of all conceivable worlds this is the worst1 is one of the speculations for which ,kant may be held ultimately responsible4 ,footnote3 ,schopenhauer recognised progress social1 economic1 and political1 but as a fact that contains no guarantee of happiness2 on the contrary1 the development of the intelligence increases suffering4 ,he ridiculed the optimistic ideals of comfortable1 well-regulated states4 ,his views on historical development have been collected by ,g4 ,sparlinsky1 ,schopenhauers ,verhaltnis zur ,geschichte1 in ,berner ,studien s4 ,philosophie1 ,bd4 lxxii4 7#aiaj74 #d4 ,kant's considerations on historical development are an appendix to his philosophy2 they are not a necessary part1 wrought into the woof of his system4 ,it was otherwise with his successors the ,idealists1 for whom his system was the point of departure1 though they rejected its essential feature1 the limitation of human thought4 ,with ,fichte and ,hegel progressive development was directly deduced from their principles4 ,if their particular interpretations of history have no permanent value1 it is significant that1 in their ambitious attempts to explain the universe a priori1 history was conceived as progressive1 and their philosophies did much to reinforce a conception which on very different principles was making its way in the world4 ,but the progress which their systems involved was not bound up with the interest of human happiness1 but stood out as a fact which1 whether agreeable or not1 is a consequence of the nature of thought4 ,the process of the universe1 as it appeared to ,fichte1 ,footnote3 ,fichte's philosophy of history will be found in ,die ,grundzuge des gegenwartigen ,zeitalters 7#ahjf71 lectures which he delivered at ,berlin in #ahjd-e4 tends to a full realisation of freedom2 that is its end and goal1 but a goal that always recedes4 ,it can never be reached2 for its full attainment would mean the complete suppression of ,nature4 ,the process of the world1 therefore1 consists in an indefinite approximation to an unattainable ideal3 freedom is being perpetually realised more and more2 and the world1 as it ascends in this direction1 becomes more and more a realm of reason4 ,what ,fichte means by freedom may be best explained by its opposition to instinct4 ,a man acting instinctively may be acting quite reasonably1 in a way which any one fully conscious of all the implications and consequences of the action would judge to be reasonable4 ,but in order that his actions should be free he must himself be fully conscious of all those implications and consequences4 ,it follows that the end of mankind upon earth is to reach a state in which all the relations of life shall be ordered according to reason1 not instinctively but with full consciousness and deliberate purpose4 ,this end should govern the ethical rules of conduct1 and it determines the necessary stages of history4 ,it gives us at once two main periods1 the earliest and the latest3 the earliest1 in which men act reasonably by instinct1 and the latest1 in which they are conscious of reason and try to realise it fully4 ,but before reaching this final stage they must pass through an epoch in which reason is conscious of itself1 but not regnant4 ,and to reach this they must have emancipated themselves from instinct1 and this process of emancipation means a fourth epoch4 ,but they could not have wanted to emancipate themselves unless they had felt instinct as a servitude imposed by an external authority1 and therefore we have to distinguish yet another epoch wherein reason is expressed in authoritarian institutions to which men blindly submit4 ,in this way ,fichte deduces five historical epochs3 two in which progress is blind1 two in which it is free1 and an intermediate in which it is struggling to consciousness4 ,footnote3 ,first ,epoch3 that of instinctive reason2 the age of innocence4 ,second3 that of authoritarian reason4 ,third3 that of enfranchisement2 the age of scepticism and unregulated liberty4 ,fourth3 that of conscious reason1 as science4 ,fifth3 that of regnant reason1 as art4 ,but there are no locked gates between these periods2 they overlap and mingle2 each may have some of the characteristics of another2 and in each there is a vanguard leading the way and a rearguard lagging behind4 ,at present 7#ahjd7 we are in the third age2 we have broken with authority1 but do not yet possess a clear and disciplined knowledge of reason4 ,footnote3 ,three years later1 however1 ,fichte maintained in his patriotic ,discourses to the ,german ,nation 7#ahjg7 that in #ahjd man had crossed the threshold of the fourth epoch4 ,he asserted that the progress of culture and science will depend henceforward chiefly on ,germany4 ,fichte has deduced this scheme purely a priori without any reference to actual experience4 ,the philosopher1 he says1 follows the a priori thread of the world-plan which is clear to him without any history2 and if he makes use of history1 it is not to prove anything1 since his theses are already proved independently of all history4 ,historical development is thus presented as a necessary progress towards a goal which is known but cannot be reached4 ,and this fact as to the destiny of the race constitutes the basis of morality1 of which the fundamental law is to act in such a way as to promote the free realisation of reason upon earth4 ,it has been claimed by a recent critic that ,fichte was the first modern philosopher to humanise morals4 ,he completely rejected the individualistic conception which underlay ,kantian as well as ,christian ethics4 ,he asserted that the true motive of morality is not the salvation of the individual man but the ,progress of humanity4 ,in fact1 with ,fichte ,progress is the principle of ethics4 ,that the ,christian ideal of ascetic saintliness detached from society has no moral value is a plain corollary from the idea of earthly ,progress4 ,footnote3 ,x4 ,leon1 ,la ,philosophie de ,fichte 7#aijb71 pp4 #dgg-i4 ,one other point in ,fichte's survey of history deserves notice--the social role of the savant4 ,it is the function of the savant to discover the truths which are a condition of moral progress2 he may be said to incarnate reason in the world4 ,we shall see how this idea played a prominent part in the social schemes of ,saint-,simon and ,comte4 ,footnote3 ,fichte1 ,ueber die ,bestimmung des ,gelehrten 7#agid74 #e4 ,hegel's philosophy of history is better known than ,fichte's4 ,like ,fichte1 he deduced the phases a priori from his metaphysical principles1 but he condescended to review in some detail the actual phenomena4 ,he conceived the final cause of the world as ,spirit's consciousness of its own freedom4 ,the ambiguous term freedom is virtually equivalent to self-consciousness1 and ,hegel defines ,universal ,history as the description of the process by which ,spirit or ,god comes to the consciousness of its own meaning4 ,this freedom does not mean that ,spirit could choose at any moment to develop in a different way2 its actual development is necessary and is the embodiment of reason4 ,freedom consists in fully recognising the fact4 ,of the particular features which distinguish ,hegel's treatment1 the first is that he identifies history with political history1 the development of the state4 ,art1 religion1 philosophy1 the creations of social man1 belong to a different and higher stage of ,spirit's self-revelation4 ,footnote3 ,the three phases of ,spirit are 7#a7 subjective2 7#b7 objective2 7#c7 absolute4 ,psychology1 e4g41 is included in 7#a71 law and history in 7#b71 religion in 7#c74 ,in the second place1 ,hegel ignores the primitive prehistoric ages of man1 and sets the beginning of his development in the fully-grown civilisation of ,china4 ,he conceives the ,spirit as continually moving from one nation to another in order to realise the successive stages of its self-consciousness3 from ,china to ,india1 from ,india to the kingdoms of ,western ,asia2 then from the ,orient to ,greece1 then to ,rome1 and finally to the ,germanic world4 ,in the ,east men knew only that ,,one is free1 the political characteristic was despotism2 in ,greece and ,rome they knew that ,,some are free1 and the political forms were aristocracy and democracy2 in the modern world they know that ,,all are free1 and the political form is monarchy4 ,the first period1 he compared to childhood1 the second to youth 7,greece7 and manhood 7,rome71 the third to old age1 old but not feeble4 ,the third1 which includes the medieval and modern history of ,europe1 designated by ,hegel as the ,germanic world--for the ,german spirit is the spirit of the modern world--is also the final period4 ,in it ,god realises his freedom completely in history1 just as in ,hegel's own absolute philosophy1 which is final1 ,god has completely understood his own nature4 ,and here is the most striking difference between the theories of ,fichte and ,hegel4 ,both saw the goal of human development in the realisation of freedom1 but1 while with ,fichte the development never ends as the goal is unattainable1 with ,hegel the development is already complete1 the goal is not only attainable but has now been attained4 ,thus ,hegel's is what we may call a closed system4 ,history has been progressive1 but no path is left open for further advance4 ,hegel views this conclusion of development with perfect complacency4 ,to most minds that are not intoxicated with the ,absolute it will seem that1 if the present is the final state to which the evolution of ,spirit has conducted1 the result is singularly inadequate to the gigantic process4 ,but his system is eminently inhuman4 ,the happiness or misery of individuals is a matter of supreme indifference to the ,absolute1 which1 in order to realise itself in time1 ruthlessly sacrifices sentient beings4 ,the spirit of ,hegel's philosophy1 in its bearing on social life1 was thus antagonistic to ,progress as a practical doctrine4 ,progress there had been1 but ,progress had done its work2 the ,prussian monarchical state was the last word in history4 ,kant's cosmopolitical plan1 the liberalism and individualism which were implicit in his thought1 the democracies which he contemplated in the future1 are all cast aside as a misconception4 ,once the needs of the ,absolute ,spirit have been satisfied1 when it has seen its full power and splendour revealed in the ,hegelian philosophy1 the world is as good as it can be4 ,social amelioration does not matter1 nor the moral improvement of men1 nor the increase of their control over physical forces4 #f4 ,the other great representative of ,german idealism1 who took his departure from ,kant1 also saw in history a progressive revelation of divine reason4 ,but it was the processes of nature1 not the career of humanity1 that absorbed the best energies of ,schelling1 and the elaboration of a philosophical idea of organic evolution was the prominent feature of his speculation4 ,his influence--and it was wide1 reaching even scientific biologists--lay chiefly in diffusing this idea1 and he thus contributed to the formation of a theory which was afterwards to place the idea of ,progress on a more imposing base4 ,footnote3 ,schelling's views notoriously varied at various stages of his career4 ,in his ,system of ,transcendental ,idealism 7#ahjj7 he distinguished three historical periods1 in the first of which the ,absolute reveals itself as ,fate1 in the second as ,nature1 in the third as ,providence1 and asserted that we are still living in the second1 which began with the expansion of ,rome 7,werke1 i4 #c1 p4 #fjc74 ,in this context he says that the conception of an infinite progressivity is included in the conception of history1 but adds that the perfectibility of the race cannot be directly inferred4 ,for it may be said that man has no proper history but turns round on a wheel of ,ixion4 ,the difficulty of establishing the fact of ,progress from the course of events lies in discovering a criterion4 ,schelling rejects the criterion of moral improvement and that of advance in science and arts as unpractical or misleading4 ,but if we see the sole object of history in a gradual realisation of the ideal state1 we have a measure of ,progress which can be applied2 though it cannot be proved either by theory or by experience that the goal will be attained4 ,this must remain an article of faith 7ib4 #eib sqq474 ,schelling influenced1 among others1 his contemporary ,krause1 a less familiar name1 who worked out a philosophy of history in which this idea is fundamental4 ,krause conceived history1 which is the expression of the ,absolute1 as the development of life2 society as an organism2 and social growth as a process which can be deduced from abstract biological principles4 ,footnote3 ,krause divided man's earthly career into three ,ages--infancy1 growth1 and maturity4 ,the second of these falls into three periods characterised by 7#a7 polytheism1 7#b7 monotheism 7,middle ,ages71 7#c7 scepticism and liberty1 and we are now in the third of these periods4 ,the third ,age will witness the union of humanity in a single social organism1 and the universal acceptance of panentheism 7the doctrine of the unity of all in ,god71 which is the principle of ,krause's philosophy and religion4 ,but though this will be the final stage on the earth1 ,krause contemplates an ulterior career of humanity in other solar systems4 ,krause never attracted attention in ,england1 but he exerted some influence in ,france and ,spain1 and especially in ,belgium1 notwithstanding the grotesque jargon in which he obscured his thoughts4 ,see ,flint1 ,philosophy of ,history1 pp4 #dgd-e4 ,flint's account of his speculations is indulgent4 ,the main ideas of his philosophy of history will be found in the ,introduction a la philosophie 7ed4 #b1 #ahhj7 of ,g4 ,tiberghien1 a ,belgian disciple4 ,all these transcendent speculations had this in common that they pretended to discover the necessary course of human history on metaphysical principles1 independent of experience4 ,but it has been rightly doubted whether this alleged independence was genuine4 ,we may question whether any of them would have produced the same sequence of periods of history1 if the actual facts of history had been to them a sealed book4 ,indeed we may be sure that they were surreptitiously and subconsciously using experience as a guide1 while they imagined that abstract principles were entirely responsible for their conclusions4 ,and this is equivalent to saying that their ideas of progressive movement were really derived from that idea of ,progress which the ,french thinkers of the eighteenth century had attempted to base on experience4 ,the influence1 direct and indirect1 of these ,german philosophers reached far beyond the narrow circle of the bacchants or even the wandbearers of idealism4 ,they did much to establish the notion of progressive development as a category of thought1 almost as familiar and indispensable as that of cause and effect4 ,they helped to diffuse the idea of an increasing purpose in history4 ,augustine or ,bossuet might indeed have spoken of an increasing purpose1 but the purpose of their speculations was subsidiary to a future life4 ,the purpose of the ,german idealists could be fulfilled in earthly conditions and required no theory of personal immortality4 ,this atmosphere of thought affected even intelligent reactionaries who wrote in the interest of orthodox ,christianity and the ,catholic ,church4 ,progressive development is admitted in the lectures on the ,philosophy of ,history of ,friedrich von ,schlegel4 ,footnote3 ,translated into ,english in #b vols41 #ahce4 ,he denounced ,condorcet1 and opposed to perfectibility the corruptible nature of man4 ,but he asserted that the philosophy of history is to be found in the principles of social progress4 ,footnote3 ,op4 cit4 ii1 p4 #aid1 sqq4 ,these principles are three3 the hidden ways of ,providence emancipating the human race2 the freewill of man2 and the power which ,god permits to the agents of evil1--principles which ,bossuet could endorse1 but the novelty is that here they are arrayed as forces of ,progress4 ,in fact1 the point of von ,schlegel's pretentious1 unilluminating book is to rehabilitate ,christianity by making it the key to that new conception of life which had taken shape among the enemies of the ,church4 #g4 ,as biological development was one of the constant preoccupations of ,goethe1 whose doctrine of metamorphosis and types helped to prepare the way for the evolutionary hypothesis1 we might have expected to find him interested in theories of social progress1 in which theories of biological development find a logical extension4 ,but the ,french speculations on ,progress did not touch his imagination2 they left him cool and sceptical4 ,towards the end of his life1 in conversation with ,eckermann1 he made some remarks which indicate his attitude4 ,footnote3 ,gesprache mit ,goethe1 #bc ,oktober #ahbh4 ',the world will not reach its goal so quickly as we think and wish4 ,the retarding demons are always there1 intervening and resisting at every point1 so that1 though there is an advance on the whole1 it is very slow4 ,live longer and you will find that ,i am right4' ',the development of humanity1' said ,eckermann1 'appears to be a matter of thousands of years4' ',who knows8' ,goethe replied1 'perhaps of millions4 ,but let humanity last as long as it will1 there will always be hindrances in its way1 and all kinds of distress1 to make it develop its powers4 ,men will become more clever and discerning1 but not better nor happier nor more energetic1 at least except for limited periods4 ,i see the time coming when ,god will take no more pleasure in the race1 and must again proceed to a rejuvenated creation4 ,i am sure that this will happen and that the time and hour in the distant future are already fixed for the beginning of this epoch of rejuvenation4 ,but that time is certainly a long way off1 and we can still for thousands and thousands of years enjoy ourselves on this dear old playing-ground1 just as it is4' ,that is at once a plain rejection of perfectibility1 and an opinion that intellectual development is no highroad to the gates of a golden city4 ,,chapter ,,xiv4 ,,currents ,,of ,,thought ,,in ,,france ,,after ,,the ,,revolution #a4 ,the failure of the ,revolution to fulfil the visionary hopes which had dazzled ,france for a brief period--a failure intensified by the horrors that had attended the experiment--was followed by a reaction against the philosophical doctrines and tendencies which had inspired its leaders4 ,forces1 which the eighteenth century had underrated or endeavoured to suppress1 emerged in a new shape1 and it seemed for a while as if the new century might definitely turn its back on its predecessor4 ,there was an intellectual rehabilitation of ,catholicism1 which will always be associated with the names of four thinkers of exceptional talent1 ,chateaubriand1 ,de ,maistre1 ,bonald1 and ,lamennais4 ,but the outstanding fame of these great reactionaries must not mislead us into exaggerating the reach of this reaction4 ,the spirit and tendencies of the past century still persisted in the circles which were most permanently influential4 ,many eminent savants who had been imbued with the ideas of ,condillac and ,helvetius1 and had taken part in the ,revolution and survived it1 were active under the ,empire and the restored ,monarchy1 still true to the spirit of their masters1 and commanding influence by the value of their scientific work4 ,m4 ,picavet's laborious researches into the activities of this school of thinkers has helped us to understand the transition from the age of ,condorcet to the age of ,comte4 ,the two central figures are ,cabanis1 the friend of ,condorcet1 ,footnote3 ,he has already claimed our notice1 above1 p4 #bae4 and ,destutt de ,tracy4 ,m4 ,picavet has grouped around them1 along with many obscurer names1 the great scientific men of the time1 like ,laplace1 ,bichat1 ,lamarck1 as all in the direct line of eighteenth century thought4 ,ideologists he calls them4 ,footnote3 ,ideology is now sometimes used to convey a criticism2 for instance1 to contrast the methods of ,lamarck with those of ,darwin4 ,ideology1 the science of ideas1 was the word invented by de ,tracy to distinguish the investigation of thought in accordance with the methods of ,locke and ,condillac from old-fashioned metaphysics4 ,the guiding principle of the ideologists was to apply reason to observed facts and eschew a priori deductions4 ,thinkers of this school had an influential organ1 the ,decade philosophique1 of which ,j4 ,b4 ,say the economist was one of the founders in #agid4 ,the ,institut1 which had been established by the ,convention1 was crowded with ideologists1 and may be said to have continued the work of the ,encyclopaedia4 ,footnote3 ,picavet1 op4 cit4 p4 #fi4 ,the members of the #bnd ,class of the ,institut1 that of moral and political science1 were so predominantly ,ideological that the distrust of ,napoleon was excited1 and he abolished it in #ahjc1 distributing its members among the other ,classes4 ,these men had a firm faith in the indefinite progress of knowledge1 general enlightenment1 and social reason4 #b4 ,thus the ideas of the sophists of the age of ,voltaire were alive in the speculative world1 not withstanding political1 religious1 and philosophical reaction4 ,but their limitations were to be transcended1 and account taken of facts and aspects which their philosophy had ignored or minimised4 ,the value of the reactionary movement lay in pressing these facts and aspects on the attention1 in reopening chambers of the human spirit which the age of ,voltaire had locked and sealed4 ,the idea of ,progress was particularly concerned in the general change of attitude1 intellectual and emotional1 towards the ,middle ,ages4 ,a fresh interest in the great age of the ,church was a natural part of the religious revival1 but extended far beyond the circle of ardent ,catholics4 ,it was a characteristic feature1 as every one knows1 of the ,romantic movement4 ,it did not affect only creative literature1 it occupied speculative thinkers and stimulated historians4 ,for ,guizot1 ,michelet1 and ,auguste ,comte1 as well as for ,chateaubriand and ,victor ,hugo1 the ,middle ,ages have a significance which ,frenchmen of the previous generation could hardly have comprehended4 ,we saw how that period had embarrassed the first pioneers who attempted to trace the course of civilisation as a progressive movement1 how lightly they passed over it1 how unconvincingly they explained it away4 ,at the beginning of the nineteenth century the medieval question was posed in such a way that any one who undertook to develop the doctrine of ,progress would have to explore it more seriously4 ,madame de ,stael saw this when she wrote her book on ,literature considered in its ,relation to ,social ,institutions 7#ahja74 ,she was then under the influence of ,condorcet and an ardent believer in perfectibility1 and the work is an attempt to extend this theory1 which she testifies was falling into discredit1 to the realm of literature4 ,she saw that1 if man regressed instead of progressing for ten centuries1 the case for ,progress was gravely compromised1 and she sought to show that the ,middle ,ages contributed to the development of the intellectual faculties and to the expansion of civilisation1 and that the ,christian religion was an indispensable agent4 ,this contention that ,progress was uninterrupted is an advance on ,condorcet and an anticipation of ,saint-,simon and ,comte4 ,a more eloquent and persuasive voice was raised in the following year from the ranks of reaction4 ,chateaubriand's ,genie du ,christianisme appeared in #ahjb1 amidst the ruins of our temples1 as the author afterwards said1 when ,france was issuing from the chaos of her revolution4 ,it was a declaration of war against the spirit of the eighteenth century which had treated ,christianity as a barbarous system whose fall was demanded in the name of ,progress4 ,but it was much more than polemic4 ,chateaubriand arrayed arguments in support of orthodox dogmas1 original sin1 primitive degeneration1 and the rest2 but the appeal of the book did not lie in its logic1 it lay in the appreciation of ,christianity from a new point of view4 ,he approached it in the spirit of an artist1 as an aesthete1 not as a philosopher1 and so far as he proved anything he proved that ,christianity is valuable because it is beautiful1 not because it is true4 ,he aimed at showing that it can enchanter l'ame aussi divinement que les dieux de ,virgile et d',homere4 ,he might call to his help the ,fathers of the ,church1 but it was on ,dante1 ,milton1 ,racine that his case was really based4 ,the book is an apologia1 from the aesthetic standpoint of the ,romantic school4 ,dieu ne defend pas les routes fleuries quand elles servent a revenir a lui4 ,it was a matter of course that the defender of original sin should reject the doctrine of perfectibility4 ,when man attains the highest point of civilisation1 wrote ,chateaubriand in the vein of ,rousseau1 he is on the lowest stair of morality2 if he is free1 he is rude2 by civilising his manners1 he forges himself chains4 ,his heart profits at the expense of his head1 his head at the expense of his heart4 ,and1 apart from considerations of ,christian doctrine1 the question of ,progress had little interest for the ,romantic school4 ,victor ,hugo1 in the famous ,preface to his ,cromwell 7#ahbg71 where he went more deeply than ,chateaubriand into the contrasts between ancient and modern art1 revived the old likeness of mankind to an individual man1 and declared that classical antiquity was the time of its virility and that we are now spectators of its imposing old age4 ,from other points of view powerful intellects were reverting to the ,middle ,ages and eager to blot out the whole development of modern society since the ,reformation1 as the ,encyclopaedic philosophers had wished to blot out the ,middle ,ages4 ,the ideal of ,bonald1 ,de ,maistre1 and ,lamennais was a sacerdotal government of the world1 and the ,english constitution was hardly less offensive to their minds than the ,revolution which ,de ,maistre denounced as satanic4 ,advocates as they were of the dead system of theocracy1 they contributed1 however1 to the advance of thought1 not only by forcing medieval institutions on the notice of the world but also by their perception that society had been treated in the eighteenth century in too mechanical a way1 that institutions grow1 that the conception of individual men divested of their life in society is a misleading abstraction4 ,they put this in extravagant and untenable forms1 but there was a large measure of truth in their criticism1 which did its part in helping the nineteenth century to revise and transcend the results of eighteenth century speculation4 ,in this reactionary literature we can see the struggle of the doctrine of ,providence1 declining before the doctrine of ,progress1 to gain the upper-hand again4 ,chateaubriand1 ,bonald1 ,de ,maistre1 ,lamennais firmly held the dogma of an original golden age and the degradation of man1 and denounced the whole trend of progressive thought from ,bacon to ,condorcet4 ,these writers were unconsciously helping ,condorcet's doctrine to assume a new and less questionable shape4 ,footnote3 ,bonald indeed in his treatise ,de pouvoir adopted the idea of development and applied it to religion 7as ,newman did afterwards7 for the purpose of condemning the ,reformation as a retrograde movement4 #c4 ,along with the discovery of the ,middle ,ages came the discovery of ,german literature4 ,in the intellectual commerce between the two countries in the age of ,frederick the ,great1 ,france had been exclusively the giver1 ,germany the recipient4 ,it was due1 above all1 to ,madame de ,stael that the tide began to flow the other way4 ,among the writers of the ,napoleonic epoch1 ,madame de ,stael is easily first in critical talent and intellectual breadth4 ,her study of the ,revolution showed a more dispassionate appreciation of that convulsion than any of her contemporaries were capable of forming4 ,but her chef-d'oeuvre is her study of ,germany1 ,de l',allemagne1 ,footnote3 ,a4,d4 #ahac4 which revealed the existence of a world of art and thought1 unsuspected by the ,french public4 ,within the next twenty years ,herder and ,lessing1 ,kant and ,hegel were exerting their influence at ,paris4 ,she did in ,france what ,coleridge was doing in ,england for the knowledge of ,german thought4 ,madame de ,stael had raised anew the question which had been raised in the seventeenth century and answered in the negative by ,voltaire3 is there progress in aesthetic literature8 ,her early book on ,literature had clearly defined the issue4 ,she did not propose the thesis that there is any progress or improvement 7as some of the ,moderns had contended in the famous ,quarrel7 in artistic form4 ,within the limits of their own thought and emotional experience the ancients achieved perfection of expression1 and perfection cannot be surpassed4 ,but as thought progresses1 as the sum of ideas increases and society changes1 fresh material is supplied to art1 there is a new development of sensibility which enables literary artists to compass new kinds of charm4 ,the ,genie du ,christianisme embodied a commentary on her contention1 more arresting than any she could herself have furnished4 ,here the reactionary joined hands with the disciple of ,condorcet1 to prove that there is progress in the domain of art4 ,madame de ,stael's masterpiece1 ,germany1 was a further impressive illustration of the thesis that the literature of the modern ,european nations represents an advance on classical literature1 in the sense that it sounds notes which the ,greek and ,roman masters had not heard1 reaches depths which they had not conjectured1 unlocks chambers which to them were closed1--as a result of the progressive experiences of the human soul4 ,footnote3 ,german literature was indeed already known1 in some measure1 to readers of the ,decade philosophique1 and ,kant had been studied in ,france long before #ahac1 the year of the publication of ,de l',allemagne4 ,see ,picavet1 ,les ,ideologues1 p4 #ii4 ,footnote3 ,we can see the effect of her doctrine in ,guizot's remarks 7,histoire de la civilisation en ,europe1 #b;e lecon7 where he says of modern literatures that sous le point de vue du fond des sentiments et des idees elles sont plus fortes et plus riches than the ancient4 ,on voit que l'ame humaine a ete remuee sur un plus grand nombre de points a une plus grande profondeur--and to this very fact he ascribes their comparative imperfection in form4 ,this view is based on the general propositions that all social phenomena closely cohere and that literature is a social phenomenon2 from which it follows that if there is a progressive movement in society generally1 there is a progressive movement in literature4 ,her books were true to the theory2 they inaugurated the methods of modern criticism1 which studies literary works in relation to the social background of their period4 #d4 ,france1 then1 under the ,bourbon ,restoration began to seek new light from the obscure profundities of ,german speculation which ,madame de ,stael proclaimed4 ,herder's ,ideas were translated by ,edgar ,quinet1 ,lessing's ,education by ,eugene ,rodrigues4 ,cousin sat at the feet of ,hegel4 ,at the same time a new master1 full of suggestiveness for those who were interested in the philosophy of history1 was discovered in ,italy4 ,the ,scienza nuova of ,vico was translated by ,michelet4 ,the book of ,vico was now a hundred years old4 ,i did not mention him in his chronological place1 because he exercised no immediate influence on the world4 ,his thought was an anachronism in the eighteenth century1 it appealed to the nineteenth4 ,he did not announce or conceive any theory of ,progress1 but his speculation1 bewildering enough and confused in its exposition1 contained principles which seemed predestined to form the basis of such a doctrine4 ,his aim was that of ,cabanis and the ideologists1 to set the study of society on the same basis of certitude which had been secured for the study of nature through the work of ,descartes and ,newton4 ,footnote3 ,vico has sometimes been claimed as a theorist of ,progress1 but incorrectly4 ,see ,b4 ,croce1 ,the ,philosophy of ,giambattista ,vico 7,eng4 tr41 #aiac71 p4 #acb--;an indispensable aid to the study of ,vico4 ,the first edition of the ,scienza nuova appeared in #agbe2 the second1 which was a new work1 in #agcj4 ,vico influenced ,ballanche1 a writer who enjoyed a considerable repute in his day4 ,he taught the progressive development of man towards liberty and equality within the four corners of the ,christian religion1 which he regarded as final4 ,his ,palingenesie sociale appeared in #ahbc-cj4 ,his fundamental idea was that the explanation of the history of societies is to be found in the human mind4 ,the world at first is felt rather than thought2 this is the condition of savages in the state of nature1 who have no political organisation4 ,the second mental state is imaginative knowledge1 poetical wisdom2 to this corresponds the higher barbarism of the heroic age4 ,finally1 comes conceptual knowledge1 and with it the age of civilisation4 ,these are the three stages through which every society passes1 and each of these types determines law1 institutions1 language1 literature1 and the characters of men4 ,vico's strenuous researches in the study of ,homer and early ,roman history were undertaken in order to get at the point of view of the heroic age4 ,he insisted that it could not be understood unless we transcended our own abstract ways of thinking and looked at the world with primitive eyes1 by a forced effort of imagination4 ,he was convinced that history had been vitiated by the habit of ignoring psychological differences1 by the failure to recapture the ancient point of view4 ,here he was far in advance of his own times4 ,concentrating his attention above all on ,roman antiquity1 he adopted--not altogether advantageously for his system--the revolutions of ,roman history as the typical rule of social development4 ,the succession of aristocracy 7for the early kingship of ,rome and ,homeric royalty are merely forms of aristocracy in ,vico's view71 democracy1 and monarchy is the necessary sequence of political governments4 ,monarchy 7the ,roman ,empire7 corresponds to the highest form of civilisation4 ,what happens when this is reached8 ,society declines into an anarchical state of nature1 from which it again passes into a higher barbarism or heroic age1 to be followed once more by civilisation4 ,the dissolution of the ,roman ,empire and the barbarian invasions are followed by the ,middle ,ages1 in which ,dante plays the part of ,homer2 and the modern period with its strong monarchies corresponds to the ,roman ,empire4 ,this is ,vico's principle of reflux4 ,if the theory were sound1 it would mean that the civilisation of his day must again relapse into barbarism and the cycle begin again4 ,he did not himself state this conclusion directly or venture on any prediction4 ,it is obvious how readily his doctrine could be adapted to the conception of ,progress as a spiral movement4 ,evidently the corresponding periods in his cycles are not identical or really homogeneous4 ,whatever points of likeness may be discovered between early ,greek or ,roman and medieval societies1 the points of unlikeness are still more numerous and manifest4 ,modern civilisation differs in fundamental and far-reaching ways from ,greek and ,roman4 ,it is absurd to pretend that the general movement brings man back again and again to the point from which he started1 and therefore1 if there is any value in ,vico's reflux1 it can only mean that the movement of society may be regarded as a spiral ascent1 so that each stage of an upward progress corresponds1 in certain general aspects1 to a stage which has already been traversed1 this correspondence being due to the psychical nature of man4 ,a conception of this kind could not be appreciated in ,vico's day or by the next generation4 ,the ,scienza nuova lay in ,montesquieu's library1 and he made no use of it4 ,but it was natural that it should arouse interest in ,france at a time when the new idealistic philosophies of ,germany were attracting attention1 and when ,frenchmen1 of the ideological school1 were seeking1 like ,vico himself1 a synthetic principle to explain social phenomena4 ,different though ,vico was in his point of departure as in his methods from the ,german idealists1 his speculations nevertheless had something in common with theirs4 ,both alike explained history by the nature of mind which necessarily determined the stages of the process2 ,vico as little as ,fichte or ,hegel took eudaemonic considerations into account4 ,the difference was that the ,german thinkers sought their principle in logic and applied it a priori1 while ,vico sought his in concrete psychology and engaged in laborious research to establish it a posteriori by the actual data of history4 ,but both speculations suggested that the course of human development corresponds to the fundamental character of mental processes and is not diverted either by ,providential intervention or by free acts of human will4 #e4 ,these foreign influences co-operated in determining the tendencies of ,french speculation in the period of the restored monarchy1 whereby the idea of ,progress was placed on new basements and became the headstone of new religions4 ,before we consider the founders of sects1 we may glance briefly at the views of some eminent savants who had gained the ear of the public before the ,july ,revolution--,jouffroy1 ,cousin1 and ,guizot4 ,cousin1 the chief luminary in the sphere of pure philosophy in ,france in the first half of the nineteenth century1 drew his inspiration from ,germany4 ,he was professedly an eclectic1 but in the main his philosophy was ,hegelian4 ,he might endow ,god with consciousness and speak of ,providence1 but he regarded the world-process as a necessary evolution of thought1 and he saw1 not in religion but in philosophy1 the highest expression of civilisation4 ,in #ahbh he delivered a course of lectures on the philosophy of history4 ,he divided history into three periods1 each governed by a master idea3 the first by the idea of the infinite 7the ,orient72 the second by that of the finite 7classical antiquity72 the third by that of the relation of finite to infinite 7the modern age74 ,as with ,hegel1 the future is ignored1 progress is confined within a closed system1 the highest circle has already been reached4 ,as an opponent of the ideologists and the sensational philosophy on which they founded their speculations1 ,cousin appealed to the orthodox and all those to whom ,voltairianism was an accursed thing1 and for a generation he exercised a considerable influence4 ,but his work--and this is the important point for us--helped to diffuse the idea1 which the ideologists were diffusing on very different lines--that human history has been a progressive development4 ,progressive development was also the theme of ,jouffroy in his slight but suggestive introduction to the philosophy of history 7#ahbe71 ,footnote3 ,reflexions sur la philosophie de l'histoire1 in ,melanges philosophiques1 #bnd edition1 #ahch4 in which he posed the same problem which1 as we shall see1 ,saint-,simon and ,comte were simultaneously attempting to solve4 ,he had not fallen under the glamour of ,german idealism1 and his results have more affinity with ,vico's than with ,hegel's4 ,he begins with some simple considerations which conduct to the doubtful conclusion that all the historical changes in man's condition are due to the operation of his intelligence4 ,the historian's business is to trace the succession of the actual changes4 ,the business of the philosopher of history is to trace the succession of ideas and study the correspondence between the two developments4 ,this is the true philosophy of history3 the glory of our age is to understand it4 ,now it is admitted to-day1 he says1 that the human intelligence obeys invariable laws1 so that a further problem remains4 ,the actual succession of ideas has to be deduced from these necessary laws4 ,when that deduction is effected--a long time hence--history will disappear2 it will be merged in science4 ,jouffroy then presented the world with what he calls the ,,fatality ,,of ,,intellectual ,,development1 to take the place of ,providence or ,destiny4 ,it is a fatality1 he is careful to explain1 which1 so far from compromising1 presupposes individual liberty4 ,for it is not like the fatality of sensual impulse which guides the brute creation4 ,what it implies is this3 if a thousand men have the same idea of what is good1 this idea will govern their conduct in spite of their passions1 because1 being reasonable and free1 they are not blindly submissive to passion1 but can deliberate and choose4 ,this explanation of history as a necessary development of society corresponding to a necessary succession of ideas differs in two important points from the explanations of ,hegel and ,cousin4 ,the succession of ideas is not conceived as a transcendent logic1 but is determined by the laws of the ,,human mind and belongs to the domain of psychology4 ,here ,jouffroy is on the same ground as ,vico4 ,in the second place1 it is not a closed system2 room remains for an indefinite development in the future4 #f4 ,while ,cousin was discoursing on philosophy at ,paris in the days of the last ,bourbon king1 ,guizot was drawing crowded audiences to his lectures on the history of ,european civilisation1 ,footnote3 ,histoire de la civilisation en ,europe4 and the keynote of these lectures was ,progress4 ,he approached it with a fresh mind1 unencumbered with any of the philosophical theories which had attended and helped its growth4 ,civilisation1 he said1 is the supreme fact so far as man is concerned1 the fact par excellence1 the general and definite fact in which all other facts merge4 ,and civilisation means progress or development4 ,the word awakens1 when it is pronounced1 the idea of a people which is in motion1 not to change its place but to change its state1 a people whose condition is expanding and improving4 ,the idea of progress1 development1 seems to me to be the fundamental idea contained in the word ,,civilisation4 ,there we have the most important positive idea of eighteenth century speculation1 standing forth detached and independent1 no longer bound to a system4 ,fifty years before1 no one would have dreamed of defining civilisation like that and counting on the immediate acquiescence of his audience4 ,but progress has to be defined4 ,it does not merely imply the improvement of social relations and public well-being4 ,france in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries was behind ,holland and ,england in the sum and distribution of well-being among individuals1 and yet she can claim that she was the most civilised country in those ages4 ,the reason is that civilisation also implies the development of the individual life1 of men's private faculties1 sentiments1 and ideas4 ,the progress of man therefore includes both these developments4 ,but they are intimately connected4 ,we may observe how moral reformers generally recommend their proposals by promising social amelioration as a result1 and that progressive politicians maintain that the progress of society necessarily induces moral improvement4 ,the connection may not always be apparent1 and at different times one or other kind of progress predominates4 ,but one is followed by the other ultimately1 though it may be after a long interval1 for la ,providence a ses aises dans le temps4 ,the rise of ,christianity was one of the crises of civilisation1 yet it did not in its early stages aim at any improvement of social conditions2 it did not attack the great injustices which were wrought in the world4 ,it meant a great crisis because it changed the beliefs and sentiments of individuals2 social effects came afterwards4 ,the civilisation of modern ,europe has grown through a period of fifteen centuries and is still progressing4 ,the rate of progress has been slower than that of ,greek civilisation1 but on the other hand it has been continuous1 uninterrupted1 and we can see the vista of an immense career4 ,the effects of ,guizot's doctrine in propagating the idea of ,progress were all the greater for its divorce from philosophical theory4 ,he did not touch perplexing questions like fatality1 or discuss the general plan of the world2 he did not attempt to rise above common-sense2 and he did not essay any premature scheme of the universal history of man4 ,his masterly survey of the social history of ,europe exhibited progressive movement as a fact1 in a period in which to the thinkers of the eighteenth century it had been almost invisible4 ,this of course was far from proving that ,progress is the key to the history of the world and human destinies4 ,the equation of civilisation with progress remains an assumption4 ,for the question at once arises3 ,can civilisation reach a state of equilibrium from which no further advance is possible2 and if it can1 does it cease to be civilisation8 ,is ,chinese civilisation mis-called1 or has there been here too a progressive movement all the time1 however slow8 ,such questions were not raised by ,guizot4 ,but his view of history was effective in helping to establish the association of the two ideas of civilisation and progress1 which to-day is taken for granted as evidently true4 #g4 ,the views of these eminent thinkers ,cousin1 ,jouffroy1 and ,guizot show that--quite apart from the doctrines of ideologists and of the positivists1 ,saint-,simon and ,comte1 of whom ,i have still to speak--there was a common trend in ,french thought in the ,restoration period towards the conception of history as a progressive movement4 ,perhaps there is no better illustration of the infectiousness of this conception than in the ,historical ,studies which ,chateaubriand gave to the world in #ahca4 ,he had learned much1 from books as well as from politics1 since he wrote the ,,genius ,,of ,,christianity4 ,he had gained some acquaintance with ,german philosophy and with ,vico4 ,and in this work of his advanced age he accepts the idea of ,progress1 so far as it could be accepted by an orthodox son of the ,church4 ,he believes that the advance of knowledge will lead to social progress1 and that society1 if it seems sometimes to move backward1 is always really moving forward4 ,bossuet1 for whom he had no word of criticism thirty years before1 he now convicts of an imposing error4 ,that great man1 he writes1 has confined historical events in a circle as rigorous as his genius4 ,he has imprisoned them in an inflexible ,christianity--a terrible hoop in which the human race would turn in a sort of eternity1 without progress or improvement4 ,the admission from such a quarter shows eloquently how the wind was setting4 ,the notions of development and continuity which were to control all departments of historical study in the later nineteenth century were at the same time being independently promoted by the young historical school in ,germany which is associated with the names of ,eichhorn1 ,savigny1 and ,niebuhr4 ,their view that laws and institutions are a natural growth or the expression of a people's mind1 represents another departure from the ideas of the eighteenth century4 ,it was a repudiation of that universal reason which desired to reform the world and its peoples indiscriminately without taking any account of their national histories4 ,,chapter ,,xv4 ,,the ,,search ,,for ,a ,,law ,,of ,,progress3 ,i4 ,,saint-,,simon ,amid the intellectual movements in ,france described in the last chapter the idea of ,progress passed into a new phase of its growth4 ,hitherto it had been a vague optimistic doctrine which encouraged the idealism of reformers and revolutionaries1 but could not guide them4 ,it had waited like a handmaid on the abstractions of ,nature and ,reason2 it had hardly realised an independent life4 ,the time had come for systematic attempts to probe its meaning and definitely to ascertain the direction in which humanity is moving4 ,kant had said that a ,kepler or a ,newton was needed to find the law of the movement of civilisation4 ,several ,frenchmen now undertook to solve the problem4 ,they did not solve it2 but the new science of sociology was founded2 and the idea of ,progress1 which presided at its birth1 has been its principal problem ever since4 #a4 ,the three thinkers who claimed to have discovered the secret of social development had also in view the practical object of remoulding society on general scientific principles1 and they became the founders of sects1 ,fourier1 ,saint-,simon1 and ,comte4 ,they all announced a new era of development as a necessary sequel of the past1 an inevitable and desirable stage in the march of humanity1 and delineated its features4 ,comte was the successor of ,saint-,simon1 as ,saint-,simon himself was the successor of ,condorcet4 ,fourier stands quite apart4 ,he claimed that he broke entirely new ground1 and acknowledged no masters4 ,he regarded himself as a ,newton for whom no ,kepler or ,galileo had prepared the way4 ,the most important and sanest part of his work was the scheme for organising society on a new principle of industrial co-operation4 ,his general theory of the universe and man's destinies which lay behind his practical plans is so fantastic that it sounds like the dream of a lunatic4 ,yet many accepted it as the apocalypse of an evangelist4 ,fourier was moved by the far-reaching effects of ,newton's discovery to seek a law which would coordinate facts in the moral world as the principle of gravitation had co-ordinated facts in the physical world1 and in #ahjh he claimed to have found the secret in what he called the law of ,passional ,attraction4 ,footnote3 ,theorie des quatre mouvements et des destinees generales4 ,general accounts of his theories will be found in ,charles ,fourier1 sa vie et sa theorie1 by his disciple ,dr4 ,ch4 ,pellarin 7#bnd ed41 #ahdc71 and in ,flint1 ,hist4 of ,philosophy of ,history in ,france1 etc41 pp4 #djh sqq4 ,the human passions have hitherto been sources of misery2 the problem for man is to make them sources of happiness4 ,if we know the law which governs them1 we can make such changes in our environment that none of the passions will need to be curbed1 and the free indulgence of one will not hinder or compromise the satisfaction of the others4 ,his worthless law for harmonising the passions without restraining them need not detain us4 ,the structure of society1 by which he proposed to realise the benefits of his discovery1 was based on co-operation1 but was not socialistic4 ,the family as a social unit was to be replaced by a larger unit 7,,phalange71 economically self-sufficing1 and consisting of about #ahjj persons1 who were to live together in a vast building 7,,phalanstere71 surrounded by a domain sufficient to produce all they required4 ,private property is not abolished2 the community will include both rich and poor2 all the products of their work are distributed in shares according to the labour1 talents1 and capital of each member1 but a fixed minimum is assured to every one4 ,the scheme was actually tried on a small scale near the forest of ,rambouillet in #ahcb4 ,this transformation of society1 which is to have the effect of introducing harmony among the passions1 will mark the beginning of a new epoch4 ,the duration of man's earthly career is #ha1jjj years1 of which #ejjj have elapsed4 ,he will now enter upon a long period of increasing harmony1 which will be followed by an equal period of decline--like the way up and the way down of ,heraclitus4 ,his brief past1 the age of his infancy1 has been marked by a decline of happiness leading to the present age of civilisation which is thoroughly bad--here we see the influence of ,rousseau--and from it ,fourier's discovery is the clue to lead humanity forth into the epoch in which harmony begins to emerge4 ,but men who have lived in the bad ages need not be pitied1 and those who live to-day need not be pessimistic4 ,for ,fourier believed in metempsychosis1 and could tell you1 as if he were the private secretary of the ,deity calculating the arithmetical details of the cosmic plan1 how many very happy1 tolerably happy1 and unhappy lives fall to the lot of each soul during the whole #ha1jjj years4 ,nor does the prospect end with the life of the earth4 ,the soul of the earth and the human souls attached to it will live again in comets1 planets1 and suns1 on a system of which ,fourier knew all the particulars4 ,footnote3 ,details will be found in the ,theorie de l'unite universelle1 originally published under the title ,association domestique-agricole in #ahbb4 ,these silly speculations would not deserve even this slight indication of their purport were it not that ,fourier founded a sect and had a considerable body of devoted followers4 ,his discovery was acclaimed by ,beranger3 ,fourier nous dit3 ,sors de la fange1 ,peuple en proie aux deceptions1 ,travaille1 groupe par phalange1 ,dans un cercle d'attractions2 ,la terre1 apres tant de desastres1 ,forme avec le ciel un hymen1 ,et la loi qui regit les astres1 ,donne la paix au genre humain4 ,ten years after his death 7#ahcg7 an ,english writer tells us that the social theory of ,fourier is at the present moment engrossing the attention and exciting the apprehensions of thinking men1 not only in ,france but in almost every country in ,europe4 ,footnote3 ,r4 ,blakey1 ,history of the ,philosophy of ,mind1 vol4 iv4 p4 #bic 7#ahdh74 ,fourier1 born #aggb1 died in #ahcg4 ,his principal disciple was ,victor ,considerant4 ,grotesque as was the theoretical background of his doctrines1 he helped to familiarise the world with the idea of indefinite ,progress4 #b4 ,the imagination of poets has placed the golden age in the cradle of the human race4 ,it was the age of iron they should have banished there4 ,the golden age is not behind us1 but in front of us4 ,it is the perfection of social order4 ,our fathers have not seen it2 our children will arrive there one day1 and it is for us to clear the way for them4 ,the ,comte de ,saint-,simon1 who wrote these words in #ahad1 was one of the liberal nobles who had imbibed the ideas of the ,voltairian age and sympathised with the spirit of the ,revolution4 ,in his literary career from #ahjc to his death in #ahbe he passed through several phases of thought1 ,footnote3 ,they are traced in ,g4 ,weill's valuable monograph1 ,saint-,simon et son oeuvre1 #ahid4 but his chief masters were always ,condorcet and the physiologists1 from whom he derived his two guiding ideas that ethics and politics depend ultimately on physics and that history is progress4 ,condorcet had interpreted history by the progressive movement of knowledge4 ,that1 ,saint-,simon said1 is the true principle1 but ,condorcet applied it narrowly1 and committed two errors4 ,he did not understand the social import of religion1 and he represented the ,middle ,ages as a useless interruption of the forward movement4 ,here ,saint-,simon learned from the religious reaction4 ,he saw that religion has a natural and legitimate social role and cannot be eliminated as a mere perversity4 ,he expounded the doctrine that all social phenomena cohere4 ,a religious system1 he said1 always corresponds to the stage of science which the society wherein it appears has reached2 in fact1 religion is merely science clothed in a form suitable to the emotional needs which it satisfies4 ,and as a religious system is based on the contemporary phase of scientific development1 so the political system of an epoch corresponds to the religious system4 ,they all hang together4 ,medieval ,europe does not represent a temporary triumph of obscurantism1 useless and deplorable1 but a valuable and necessary stage in human progress4 ,it was a period in which an important principle of social organisation was realised1 the right relation of the spiritual and temporal powers4 ,it is evident that these views transformed the theory of ,condorcet into a more acceptable shape4 ,so long as the medieval tract of time appeared to be an awkward episode1 contributing nothing to the forward movement but rather thwarting and retarding it1 ,progress was exposed to the criticism that it was an arbitrary synthesis1 only partly borne out by historical facts and supplying no guarantees for the future4 ,and so long as rationalists of the ,encyclopaedic school regarded religion as a tiresome product of ignorance and deceit1 the social philosophy which lay behind the theory of ,progress was condemned as unscientific2 because1 in defiance of the close cohesion of social phenomena1 it refused to admit that religion1 as one of the chief of those phenomena1 must itself participate and co-operate in ,progress4 ,condorcet had suggested that the value of history lies in affording data for foreseeing the future4 ,saint-,simon raised this suggestion to a dogma4 ,but prevision was impossible on ,condorcet's unscientific method4 ,in order to foretell1 the law of the movement must be discovered1 and ,condorcet had not found or even sought a law4 ,the eighteenth century thinkers had left ,progress a mere hypothesis based on a very insufficient induction2 their successors sought to lift it to the rank of a scientific hypothesis1 by discovering a social law as valid as the physical law of gravitation4 ,this was the object both of ,saint-,simon and of ,comte4 ,the law which ,saint-,simon educed from history was that epochs of organisation or construction1 and epochs of criticism or revolution1 succeed each other alternately4 ,the medieval period was a time of organisation1 and was followed by a critical1 revolutionary period1 which has now come to an end and must be succeeded by another epoch of organisation4 ,having discovered the clew to the process1 ,saint-,simon is able to predict4 ,as our knowledge of the universe has reached or is reaching a stage which is no longer conjectural but ,,positive in all departments1 society will be transformed accordingly2 a new ,,physicist religion will supersede ,christianity and ,deism2 men of science will play the role of organisers which the clergy played in the ,middle ,ages4 ,as the goal of the development is social happiness1 and as the working classes form the majority1 the first step towards the goal will be the amelioration of the lot of the working classes4 ,this will be the principal problem of government in reorganising society1 and ,saint-,simon's solution of the problem was socialism4 ,he rejected the watchwords of liberalism--democracy1 liberty1 and equality--with as much disdain as ,de ,maistre and the reactionaries4 ,the announcement of a future age of gold1 which ,i quoted above1 is taken from a pamphlet which he issued1 in conjunction with his secretary1 ,augustin ,thierry the historian1 after the fall of ,napoleon4 ,footnote3 ,de la reorganisation de la societe europeenne1 p4 #aaa 7#ahad74 ,in it he revived the idea of the ,abbe de ,saint-,pierre for the abolition of war1 and proposed a new organisation of ,europe more ambitious and ,utopian than the ,abbe's league of states4 ,at this moment he saw in parliamentary government1 which the restored ,bourbons were establishing in ,france1 a sovran remedy for political disorder1 and he imagined that if this political system were introduced in all the states of ,europe a long step would have been taken to the perpetuation of peace4 ,if the old enemies ,france and ,england formed a close alliance there would be little difficulty in creating ultimately a ,european state like the ,american ,commonwealth1 with a parliamentary government supreme over the state governments4 ,here is the germ of the idea of a parliament of man4 #c4 ,saint-,simon1 however1 did not construct a definite system for the attainment of social perfection4 ,he left it to disciples to develop the doctrine which he sketched4 ,in the year of his death 7#ahbe7 ,olinde ,rodrigues and ,enfantin founded a journal1 the ,producteur1 to present to humanity the one thing which humanity1 in the opinion of their master1 then most needed1 a new general doctrine4 ,footnote3 ,the best study of the ,saint-,simonian school is that of ,g4 ,weill1 ,l',ecole saint-simonienne1 son histoire1 son influence jusqu'a nos jours 7#ahif71 to which ,i am much indebted4 ,history shows that peoples have been moving from isolation to union1 from war to peace1 from antagonism to association4 ,the programme for the future is association scientifically organised4 ,the ,catholic ,church in the ,middle ,ages offered the example of a great social organisation resting on a general doctrine4 ,the modern world must also be a social organisation1 but the general doctrine will be scientific1 not religious4 ,the spiritual power must reside1 not in priests but in savants1 who will direct the progress of science and public education4 ,each member of the community will have his place and duties assigned to him4 ,society consists of three classes of workers--industrial workers1 savants1 and artists4 ,a commission of eminent workers of each class will determine the place of every individual according to his capacities4 ,complete equality is absurd2 inequality1 based on merit1 is reasonable and necessary4 ,it is a modern error to distrust state authority4 ,a power directing national forces is requisite1 to propose great ideas and to make the innovations necessary for ,progress4 ,such an organisation will promote progress in all domains3 in science by co-operation1 in industry by credit1 and in art too1 for artists will learn to express the ideas and sentiments of their own age4 ,there are signs already of a tendency towards something of this kind2 its realisation must be procured1 not by revolution but by gradual change4 ,in the authoritarian character of the organisation to which these apostles of ,progress wished to entrust the destinies of man we may see the influence of the great theocrat and antagonist of ,progress1 ,joseph de ,maistre4 ,he taught them the necessity of a strong central power and the danger of liberty4 ,but the fullest exposition of the ,saint-,simonian doctrine of development was given by ,bazard1 one of the chief disciples1 a few years later4 ,footnote3 ,exposition de la doctrine saint-simonienne1 #b vols41 #ahcj-a4 ,the human race is conceived as a collective being which unfolds its nature in the course of generations1 according to a law--the law of ,progress--which may be called the physiological law of the human species1 and was discovered by ,saint-,simon4 ,it consists in the alternation of ,,organic and ,,critical epochs4 ,footnote3 ,in the ,globe1 which became an organ of ,saint-,simonism in #ahca1 ,enfantin announced a new principle 7,weill1 op4 cit4 #ajg74 ,he defined the law of history as the harmony1 ceaselessly progressive1 of flesh and spirit1 of industry and science1 of east and west1 of woman and man4 ,the role of woman played a large part in the teaching of the sect4 ,saint-,simon's law of organic and critical ages was definitely accepted by ,h4 de ,ferron1 a thinker who did not belong to the school1 as late as #ahfg4 ,see his ,theorie du progres1 vol4 ii4 p4 #dcc4 ,in an organic epoch men discern a destination and harmonise all their energies to reach it4 ,in a critical epoch they are not conscious of a goal1 and their efforts are dispersed and discordant4 ,there was an organic period in ,greece before the age of ,socrates4 ,it was succeeded by a critical epoch lasting to the barbarian invasions4 ,then came an organic period in the homogeneous societies of ,europe from ,charlemagne to the end of the fifteenth century1 and a new critical period opened with ,luther and has lasted till to-day4 ,now it is time to prepare the advent of the organic age which must necessarily follow4 ,the most salient fact observable in history is the continual extension of the principle of association1 in the series of family1 city1 nation1 supernational ,church4 ,the next term must be a still vaster association comprehending the whole race4 ,in consequence of the incompleteness of association1 the exploitation of the weak by the strong has been a capital feature in human societies1 but its successive forms exhibit a gradual mitigation4 ,cannibalism is followed by slavery1 slavery by serfdom1 and finally comes industrial exploitation by the capitalist4 ,this latest form of the oppression of the weak depends on the right of property1 and the remedy is to transfer the right of inheriting the property of the individual from the family to the state4 ,the society of the future must be socialistic4 ,the new social doctrine must not only be diffused by education and legislation1 it must be sanctioned by a new religion4 ,christianity will not serve1 for ,christianity is founded on a dualism between matter and spirit1 and has laid a curse on matter4 ,the new religion must be monistic1 and its principles are1 briefly3 ,god is one1 ,god is all that is1 all is ,god4 ,he is universal love1 revealing itself as mind and matter4 ,and to this triad correspond the three domains of religion1 science1 and industry4 ,in combining their theory with a philosophical religion the ,saint-,simonian school was not only true to its master's teaching but obeying an astute instinct4 ,as a purely secular movement for the transformation of society1 their doctrine would not have reaped the same success or inspired the same enthusiasm4 ,they were probably influenced too by the pamphlet of ,lessing to which ,madame de ,stael had invited attention1 and which one of ,saint-,simon's disciples translated4 ,the fortunes of the school1 the life of the community at ,menilmontant under the direction of ,enfantin1 the persecution1 the heresies1 the dispersion1 the attempt to propagate the movement in ,egypt1 the philosophical activity of ,enfantin and ,lemonnier under the ,second ,empire1 do not claim our attention2 the curious story is told in ,m4 ,weill's admirable monograph4 ,footnote3 ,it may be noticed that ,saint-,simonians came to the front in public careers after the revolution of #ahdh2 e4g4 ,carnot1 ,reynaud1 ,charton4 ,the sect is now extinct1 but its influence was wide in its day1 and it propagated faith in ,progress as the key to history and the law of collective life4,footnote3 ,two able converts to the ideas of ,saint-,simon seceded from the school at an early stage in consequence of ,enfantin's aberrations3 ,pierre ,leroux1 whom we shall meet again1 and ,p4 ,j4 ,b4 ,buchez1 who in #ahcc published a thoughtful ,introduction a la science de l'histoire1 where history is defined as a science whose end is to foresee the social future of the human species in the order of its free activity 7vol4 i4 p4 #fj14 ed4 #b1 #ahdb74 ,,chapter ,,xvi4 ,,the ,,search ,,for ,a ,,law ,,of ,,progress3 ,,ii4 ,,comte #a4 ,auguste ,comte did more than any preceding thinker to establish the idea of ,progress as a luminary which could not escape men's vision4 ,the brilliant suggestions of ,saint-,simon1 the writings of ,bazard and ,enfantin1 the vagaries of ,fourier1 might be dismissed as curious rather than serious propositions1 but the massive system wrought out by ,comte's speculative genius--his organic scheme of human knowledge1 his elaborate analysis of history1 his new science of sociology--was a great fact with which ,european thought was forced to reckon4 ,the soul of this system was ,progress1 and the most important problem he set out to solve was the determination of its laws4 ,his originality is not dimmed by the fact that he owed to ,saint-,simon more than he afterwards admitted or than his disciples have been willing to allow4 ,he collaborated with him for several years1 and at this time enthusiastically acknowledged the intellectual stimulus he received from the elder savant4 ,footnote3 ,comte collaborated with ,saint-,simon from #ahah-ahbb4 ,the final rupture came in #ahbd4 ,the question of their relations is cleared up by ,weill 7,saint-,simon1 chap4 xi474 ,on the quarrel see also ,ostwald1 ,auguste ,comte 7#aiad71 #ac sqq4 ,but he derived from ,saint-,simon much more than the stimulation of his thoughts in a certain direction4 ,he was indebted to him for some of the characteristic ideas of his own system4 ,he was indebted to him for the principle which lay at the very basis of his system1 that the social phenomena of a given period and the intellectual state of the society cohere and correspond4 ,the conception that the coming age was to be a period of organisation like the ,middle ,ages1 and the idea of the government of savants1 are pure ,saint-,simonian doctrine4 ,and the fundamental idea of a ,,positive philosophy had been apprehended by ,saint-,simon long before he was acquainted with his youthful associate4 ,but ,comte had a more methodical and scientific mind1 and he thought that ,saint-,simon was premature in drawing conclusions as to the reformation of societies and industries before the positive philosophy had been constructed4 ,he published--he was then only twenty-two--in #ahbb a ,plan of the scientific operations necessary for the re-organisation of society1 which was published under another title two years later by ,saint-,simon1 and it was over this that the friends quarrelled4 ,this work contains the principles of the positive philosophy which he was soon to begin to work out2 it announces already the law of the ,three ,stages4 ,the first volume of the ,cours de philisophie positive appeared in #ahcj2 it took him twelve years more to complete the exposition of his system4 ,footnote3 ,with vol4 vi41 #ahdb4 #b4 ,the law of ,three ,stages is familiar to many who have never read a line of his writings4 ,that men first attempted to explain natural phenomena by the operation of imaginary deities1 then sought to interpret them by abstractions1 and finally came to see that they could only be understood by scientific methods1 observation1 and experiment--this was a generalisation which had already been thrown out by ,turgot4 ,comte adopted it as a fundamental psychological law1 which has governed every domain of mental activity and explains the whole story of human development4 ,each of our principal conceptions1 every branch of knowledge1 passes successively through these three states which he names the theological1 the metaphysical1 and the positive or scientific4 ,in the first1 the mind invents2 in the second1 it abstracts2 in the third1 it submits itself to positive facts2 and the proof that any branch of knowledge has reached the third stage is the recognition of invariable natural laws4 ,but1 granting that this may be the key to the history of the sciences1 of physics1 say1 or botany1 how can it explain the history of man1 the sequence of actual historical events8 ,comte replies that history has been governed by ideas2 the whole social mechanism is ultimately based on opinions4 ,thus man's history is essentially a history of his opinions2 and these are subject to the fundamental psychological law4 ,it must1 however1 be observed that all branches of knowledge are not in the same stage simultaneously4 ,some may have reached the metaphysical1 while others are still lagging behind in the theological2 some may have become scientific1 while others have not passed from the metaphysical4 ,thus the study of physical phenomena has already reached the positive stage2 but the study of social phenomena has not4 ,the central aim of ,comte1 and his great achievement in his own opinion1 was to raise the study of social phenomena from the second to the third stage4 ,when we proceed to apply the law of the three stages to the general course of historical development1 we are met at the outset by the difficulty that the advance in all the domains of activity is not simultaneous4 ,if at a given period thought and opinions are partly in the theological1 partly in the metaphysical1 and partly in the scientific state1 how is the law to be applied to general development8 ,one class of ideas1 ,comte says1 must be selected as the criterion1 and this class must be that of social and moral ideas1 for two reasons4 ,in the first place1 social science occupies the highest rank in the hierarchy of sciences1 on which he laid great stress4 ,footnote3 ,cours de phil4 pos4 v4 #bfg4 ,law of consensus3 op4 cit4 iv4 #cdg sqq41 #cfd1 #eje1 #gba1 #gce4 ,in the second1 those ideas play the principal part for the majority of men1 and the most ordinary phenomena are the most important to consider4 ,when1 in other classes of ideas1 the advance is at any time more rapid1 this only means an indispensable preparation for the ensuing period4 ,the movement of history is due to the deeply rooted though complex instinct which pushes man to ameliorate his condition incessantly1 to develop in all ways the sum of his physical1 moral1 and intellectual life4 ,and all the phenomena of his social life are closely cohesive1 as ,saint-,simon had pointed out4 ,by virtue of this cohesion1 political1 moral1 and intellectual progress are inseparable from material progress1 and so we find that the phases of his material development correspond to intellectual changes4 ,the principle of consensus or solidarity1 which secures harmony and order in the development1 is as important as the principle of the three stages which governs the onward movement4 ,this movement1 however1 is not in a right line1 but displays a series of oscillations1 unequal and variable1 round a mean motion which tends to prevail4 ,the three general causes of variation1 according to ,comte1 are race1 climate1 and deliberate political action 7such as the retrograde policies of ,julian the ,apostate or ,napoleon74 ,but while they cause deflections and oscillation1 their power is strictly limited2 they may accelerate or retard the movement1 but they cannot invert its order2 they may affect the intensity of the tendencies in a given situation1 but cannot change their nature4 #c4 ,in the demonstration of his laws by the actual course of civilisation1 ,comte adopts what he calls the happy artifice of ,condorcet1 and treats the successive peoples who pass on the torch as if they were a single people running the race4 ,this is a rational fiction1 for a people's true successors are those who pursue its efforts4 ,and1 like ,bossuet and ,condorcet1 he confined his review to ,european civilisation2 he considered only the ,,elite or advance guard of humanity4 ,he deprecated the introduction of ,china or ,india1 for instance1 as a confusing complication4 ,he ignored the ,,roles of ,brahmanism1 ,buddhism1 ,mohammedanism4 ,his synthesis1 therefore1 cannot claim to be a synthesis of universal history2 it is only a synthesis of the movement of ,european history4 ,in accordance with the law of the three stages1 the development falls into three great periods4 ,the first or ,theological came to an end about ,a4,d4 #adjj1 and the second or ,metaphysical is now nearing its close1 to make way for the third or ,positive1 for which ,comte was preparing the way4 ,the ,theological period has itself three stages1 in which ,fetishism1 ,polytheism1 and ,monotheism successively prevail4 ,the chief social characteristics of the ,polytheistic period are the institution of slavery and the coincidence or confusion of the spiritual and temporal powers4 ,it has two stages3 the theocratic1 represented by ,egypt1 and the military1 represented by ,rome1 between which ,greece stands in a rather embarrassing and uneasy position4 ,the initiative for the passage to the ,monotheistic period came from ,judaea1 and ,comte attempts to show that this could not have been otherwise4 ,his analysis of this period is the most interesting part of his survey4 ,the chief feature of the political system corresponding to monotheism is the separation of the spiritual and temporal powers2 the function of the spiritual power being concerned with education1 and that of the temporal with action1 in the wide senses of those terms4 ,the defects of this dual system were due to the irrational theology4 ,but the theory of papal infallibility was a great step in intellectual and social progress1 by providing a final jurisdiction1 without which society would have been troubled incessantly by contests arising from the vague formulae of dogmas4 ,here ,comte had learned from ,joseph de ,maistre4 ,but that thinker would not have been edified when ,comte went on to declare that in the passage from polytheism to monotheism the religious spirit had really declined1 and that one of the merits of ,catholicism was that it augmented the domain of human wisdom at the expense of divine inspiration4 ,footnote3 ,cours de philosophic positive1 vi4 #ced4 ,if it be said that the ,catholic system promoted the empire of the clergy rather than the interests of religion1 this was all to the good2 for it placed the practical use of religion in the provisional elevation of a noble speculative corporation eminently able to direct opinions and morals4 ,but ,catholic monotheism could not escape dissolution4 ,the metaphysical spirit began to operate powerfully on the notions of moral philosophy1 as soon as the ,catholic organisation was complete2 and ,catholicism1 because it could not assimilate this intellectual movement1 lost its progressive character and stagnated4 ,the decay began in the fourteenth century1 where ,comte dates the beginning of the ,metaphysical period--a period of revolution and disorder4 ,in the fourteenth and fifteenth centuries the movement is spontaneous and unconscious2 from the sixteenth till to-day it has proceeded under the direction of a philosophical spirit which is negative and not constructive4 ,this critical philosophy has only accelerated a decomposition which began spontaneously4 ,for as theology progresses it becomes less consistent and less durable1 and as its conceptions become less irrational1 the intensity of the emotions which they excite decreases4 ,fetishism had deeper roots than polytheism and lasted longer2 and polytheism surpassed monotheism in vigour and vitality4 ,yet the critical philosophy was necessary to exhibit the growing need of solid reorganisation and to prove that the decaying system was incapable of directing the world any longer4 ,logically it was very imperfect1 but it was justified by its success4 ,the destructive work was mainly done in the seventeenth century by ,hobbes1 ,spinoza1 and ,bayle1 of whom ,hobbes was the most effective4 ,in the eighteenth all prominent thinkers participated in developing this negative movement1 and ,rousseau gave it the practical stimulus which saved it from degenerating into an unfruitful agitation4 ,of particular importance was the great fallacy1 which ,helvetius propagated1 that human intellects are equal4 ,this error was required for the full development of the critical doctrine4 ,for it supported the dogmas of popular sovranty and social equality1 and justified the principle of the right of private judgement4 ,these three principles--popular sovranty1 equality1 and what he calls the right of free examination--are in ,comte's eyes vicious and anarchical4,footnote #a ,op4 cit4 iv4 #cf-ch4 ,but it was necessary that they should be promulgated1 because the transition from one organised social system to another cannot be direct2 it requires an anarchical interregnum4 ,popular sovranty is opposed to orderly institutions and condemns all superior persons to dependence on the multitude of their inferiors4 ,equality1 obviously anarchical in its tendency1 and obviously untrue 7for1 as men are not equal or even equivalent to one another1 their rights cannot be identical71 was similarly necessary to break down the old institutions4 ,the universal claim to the right of free judgement merely consecrates the transitional state of unlimited liberty in the interim between the decline of theology and the arrival of positive philosophy4 ,comte further remarks that the fall of the spiritual power had led to anarchy in international relations1 and if the spirit of nationality were to prevail too far1 the result would be a state of things inferior to that of the ,middle ,ages4 ,but ,comte says for the metaphysical spirit in ,france that with all its vices it was more disengaged from the prejudices of the old theological regime1 and nearer to a true rational positivism than either the ,german mysticism or the ,english empiricism of the same period4 ,the ,revolution was a necessity1 to disclose the chronic decomposition of society from which it resulted1 and to liberate the modern social elements from the grip of the ancient powers4 ,comte has praise for the ,convention1 which he contrasts with the ,constituent ,assembly with its political fictions and inconsistencies4 ,he pointed out that the great vice in the metaphysics of the crisis--that is1 in the principles of the revolutionaries--lay in conceiving society out of relation to the past1 in ignoring the ,middle ,ages1 and borrowing from ,greek and ,roman society retrograde and contradictory ideals4 ,napoleon restored order1 but he was more injurious to humanity than any other historical person4 ,his moral and intellectual nature was incompatible with the true direction of ,progress1 which involves the extinction of the theological and military regime of the past4 ,thus his work1 like ,julian the ,apostate's1 exhibits an instance of deflection from the line of ,progress4 ,then came the parliamentary system of the restored ,bourbons which ,comte designates as a political ,utopia1 destitute of social principles1 a foolish attempt to combine political retrogression with a state of permanent peace4 #d4 ,the critical doctrine has performed its historical function1 and the time has come for man to enter upon the ,positive stage of his career4 ,to enable him to take this step forward1 it is necessary that the study of social phenomena should become a positive science4 ,as social science is the highest in the hierarchy of sciences1 it could not develop until the two branches of knowledge which come next in the scale1 biology and chemistry1 assumed a scientific form4 ,this has recently been achieved1 and it is now possible to found a scientific sociology4 ,this science1 like mechanics and biology1 has its statics and its dynamics4 ,the first studies the laws of co-existence1 the second those of succession2 the first contains the theory of order1 the second that of progress4 ,the law of consensus or cohesion is the fundamental principle of social statics2 the law of the three stages is that of social dynamics4 ,comte's survey of history1 of which ,i have briefly indicated the general character1 exhibits the application of these sociological laws4 ,the capital feature of the third period1 which we are now approaching1 will be the organisation of society by means of scientific sociology4 ,the world will be guided by a general theory1 and this means that it must be controlled by those who understand the theory and will know how to apply it4 ,therefore society will revive the principle which was realised in the great period of ,monotheism1 the distinction of a spiritual and a temporal order4 ,but the spiritual order will consist of savants who will direct social life not by theological fictions but by the positive truths of science4 ,they will administer a system of universal education and will draw up the final code of ethics4 ,they will be able1 more effectively than the ,church1 to protect the interests of the lower classes4 ,comte's conviction that the world is prepared for a transformation of this kind is based principally on signs of the decline of the theological spirit and of the military spirit1 which he regarded as the two main obstacles to the reign of reason4 ,catholicism1 he says1 is now no more than an imposing historical ruin4 ,as for militarism1 the epoch has arrived in which serious and lasting warfare among the ,,elite nations will totally cease4 ,the last general cause of warfare has been the competition for colonies4 ,but the colonial policy is now in its decadence 7with the temporary exception of ,england71 so that we need not look for future trouble from this source4 ,the very sophism1 sometimes put forward to justify war1 that it is an instrument of civilisation1 is a homage to the pacific nature of modern society4 ,we need not follow further the details of ,comte's forecast of the ,positive period1 except to mention that he did not contemplate a political federation4 ,the great ,european nations will develop each in its own way1 with their separate temporal organisations4 ,but he contemplated the intervention of a common spiritual power1 so that all nationalities under the direction of a homogeneous speculative class will contribute to an identical work1 in a spirit of active ,european patriotism1 not of sterile cosmopolitanism4 ,comte claimed1 like ,saint-,simon1 that the data of history1 scientifically interpreted1 afford the means of prevision4 ,it is interesting to observe how he failed himself as a diviner2 how utterly he misapprehended the vitality of ,catholicism1 how completely his prophecy as to the cessation of wars was belied by the event4 ,he lived to see the ,crimean war4 ,footnote3 ,he died in #aheg4 ,as a diviner he failed as completely as ,saint-,simon and ,fourier1 whose dream that the nineteenth century would see the beginning of an epoch of harmony and happiness was to be fulfilled by a deadly struggle between capitalism and labour1 the civil war in ,america1 the war of #ahgj1 the ,commune1 ,russian pogroms1 ,armenian massacres1 and finally the universal catastrophe of #aiad4 #e4 ,for the comprehension of history we have perhaps gained as little from ,comte's positive laws as from ,hegel's metaphysical categories4 ,both thinkers had studied the facts of history only slightly and partially1 a rather serious drawback which enabled them to impose their own constructions with the greater ease4 ,hegel's method of a ,,priori synthesis was enjoined by his philosophical theory2 but in ,comte we also find a tendency to a ,,priori treatment4 ,he expressly remarks that the chief social features of the ,monotheistic period might almost be constructed a ,,priori4 ,the law of the ,three ,stages is discredited4 ,it may be contended that general ,progress depends on intellectual progress1 and that theology1 metaphysics1 and science have common roots1 and are ultimately identical1 being merely phases in the movement of the intelligence4 ,but the law of this movement1 if it is to rank as a scientific hypothesis1 must be properly deduced from known causes1 and must then be verified by a comparison with historical facts4 ,comte thought that he fulfilled these requirements1 but in both respects his demonstration was defective4 ,footnote3 ,criticism of ,comte's assumption that civilisation begins with animism3 ,weber's criticisms from this point of view are telling 7,le ,rythme du progres1 #gc-ie74 ,he observes that if ,comte had not left the practical and active side of intelligence in the shade and considered only its speculative side1 he could not have formulated the law of the ,three ,stages4 ,he would have seen that the positive explanation of phenomena has played in every period a preponderant role1 though latent1 in the march of the human mind4 ,weber himself suggests a scheme of two states 7corresponding to the two-sidedness of the intellect71 technical and speculative1 practical and theoretical1 through the alternation of which intellectual progress has been effected4 ,the first stage was probably practical 7he calls it proto-technic74 ,it is to be remembered that when ,comte was constructing his system palaeontology was in its infancy4 ,the gravest weakness perhaps in his historical sketch is the gratuitous assumption that man in the earliest stage of his existence had animistic beliefs and that the first phase of his progress was controlled by fetishism4 ,there is no valid evidence that fetishism is not a relatively late development1 or that in the myriads of years stretching back beyond our earliest records1 during which men decided the future of the human species by their technical inventions and the discovery of fire1 they had any views which could be called religious or theological4 ,the psychology of modern savages is no clew to the minds of the people who wrought tools of stone in the world of the mammoth and the ,,rhinoceros ,,tichirhinus4 ,if the first stage of man's development1 which was of such critical importance for his destinies1 was pre-animistic1 ,comte's law of progress fails1 for it does not cover the ground4 ,in another way1 ,comte's system may be criticised for failing to cover the ground1 if it is regarded as a philosophy of history4 ,in accordance with the happy artifice of ,condorcet1 he assumes that the growth of ,european civilisation is the only history that matters1 and discards entirely the civilisations1 for instance1 of ,india and ,china4 ,this assumption is much more than an artifice1 and he has not scientifically justified it4 ,footnote3 ,a propos of the view that only ,european civilisation matters it has been well observed that human history is not unitary but pluralistic3 ,f4 ,j4 ,teggart1 ,the ,processes of ,history1 p4 #bd 7#aiah74 ,the reader of the ,,philosophie ,,positive will also observe that ,comte has not grappled with a fundamental question which has to be faced in unravelling the woof of history or seeking a law of events4 ,i mean the question of contingency4 ,it must be remembered that contingency does not in the least affect the doctrine of determinism2 it is compatible with the strictest interpretation of the principle of causation4 ,a particular example may be taken to show what it implies4 ,footnote3 ,on contingency and the chapter of accidents see ,cournot1 ,considerations sur la marche des idees et des evenements dans les temps modernes 7#ahgb71 i4 #af sqq4 ,i have discussed the subject and given some illustrations in a short paper1 entitled ,cleopatra's ,nose1 in the ,annual of the ,rationalist ,press ,association for #aiaf4 ,it may plausibly be argued that a military dictatorship was an inevitable sequence of the ,french ,revolution4 ,this may not be true1 but let us assume it4 ,let us further assume that1 given ,napoleon1 it was inevitable that he should be the dictator4 ,but ,napoleon's existence was due to an independent causal chain which had nothing whatever to do with the course of political events4 ,he might have died in his boyhood by disease or by an accident1 and the fact that he survived was due to causes which were similarly independent of the causal chain which1 as we are assuming1 led necessarily to an epoch of monarchical government4 ,the existence of a man of his genius and character at the given moment was a contingency which profoundly affected the course of history4 ,if he had not been there another dictator would have grasped the helm1 but obviously would not have done what ,napoleon did4 ,it is clear that the whole history of man has been modified at every stage by such contingencies1 which may be defined as the collisions of two independent causal chains4 ,voltaire was perfectly right when he emphasised the role of chance in history1 though he did not realise what it meant4 ,this factor would explain the oscillations and deflections which ,comte admits in the movement of historical progression4 ,but the question arises whether it may not also have once and again definitely altered the direction of the movement4 ,can the factor be regarded as virtually negligible by those who1 like ,comte1 are concerned with the large perspective of human development and not with the details of an episode8 ,or was ,renouvier right in principle when he maintained the real possibility that the sequence of events from the ,emperor ,nerva to the ,emperor ,charlemagne might have been radically different from what it actually was8 ,footnote3 ,he illustrated this proposition by a fanciful reconstruction of ,european history from #ajj to #hjj ,a4,d4 in his ,,uchronie1 #ahgf4 ,he contended that there is no definite law of progress3 ,the true law lies in the equal possibility of progress or regress for societies as for individuals4 #f4 ,it does not concern us here to examine the defects of ,comte's view of the course of ,european history4 ,but it interests us to observe that his synthesis of human ,progress is1 like ,hegel's1 what ,i have called a closed system4 ,just as his own absolute philosophy marked for ,hegel the highest and ultimate term of human development1 so for ,comte the coming society whose organisation he adumbrated was the final state of humanity beyond which there would be no further movement4 ,it would take time to perfect the organisation1 and the period would witness a continuous increase of knowledge1 but the main characteristics were definitely fixed4 ,comte did not conceive that the distant future1 could he survive to experience it1 could contain any surprises for him4 ,his theory of ,progress thus differed from the eighteenth century views which vaguely contemplate an indefinite development and only profess to indicate some general tendencies4 ,he expressly repudiated this notion of ,,indefinite progress2 the data1 he said1 justify only the inference of ,,continuous progress1 which is a different thing4 ,a second point in which ,comte in his view of ,progress differed from the ,french philosophers of the preceding age is this4 ,condorcet and his predecessors regarded it exclusively from the eudaemonic point of view4 ,the goal of ,progress for them was the attainment of human felicity4 ,with felicity ,comte is hardly more concerned than ,hegel4 ,the establishment of a fuller harmony between men and their environment in the third stage will no doubt mean happiness4 ,but this consideration lies outside the theory1 and to introduce it would only intrude an unscientific element into the analysis4 ,the course of development is determined by intellectual ideas1 and he treats these as independent of1 and indifferent to1 eudaemonic motives4 ,a third point to be noted is the authoritarian character of the regime of the future4 ,comte's ideal state would be as ill to live in for any unfortunate being who values personal liberty as a theocracy or any socialistic ,utopia4 ,he had as little sympathy with liberty as ,plato or as ,bossuet1 and less than the eighteenth century philosophers4 ,this feature1 common to ,comte and the ,saint-,simonians1 was partly due to the reaction against the ,revolution1 but it also resulted from the logic of the man of science4 ,if sociological laws are positively established as certainly as the law of gravitation1 no room is left for opinion2 right social conduct is definitely fixed2 the proper functions of every member of society admit of no question2 therefore the claim to liberty is perverse and irrational4 ,it is the same argument which some modern exponents of ,eugenics use to advocate a state tyranny in the matter of human breeding4 ,when ,comte was writing1 the progressive movement in ,europe was towards increase of liberty in all its forms1 national1 civic1 political1 and economical4 ,on one hand there was the agitation for the release of oppressed nationalities1 on the other the growth of liberalism in ,england and ,france4 ,the aim of the liberalism of that period was to restrict the functions of government2 its spirit was distrust of the state4 ,as a political theory it was defective1 as modern ,liberals acknowledge1 but it was an important expression of the feeling that the interests of society are best furthered by the free interplay of individual actions and aims4 ,it thus implicitly contained or pointed to a theory of ,progress sharply opposed to ,comte's3 that the realisation of the fullest possible measure of individual liberty is the condition of ensuring the maximum of energy and effectiveness in improving our environment1 and therefore the condition of attaining public felicity4 ,right or wrong1 this theory reckons with fundamental facts of human nature which ,comte ignored4 #g4 ,comte spent the later years of his life in composing another huge work1 on social reorganisation4 ,it included a new religion1 in which ,humanity was the object of worship1 but made no other important addition to the speculations of his earlier manhood1 though he developed them further4 ,the ,course of ,positive ,philosophy was not a book that took the public by storm4 ,we are told by a competent student of social theories in ,france that the author's name was little known in his own country till about #ahee1 when his greatness began to win recognition1 and his influence to operate4 ,footnote3 ,weill1 ,hist4 du mouvement social1 p4 #ba4 ,even then his work can hardly have been widely read4 ,but through men like ,littre and ,taine1 whose conceptions of history were moulded by his teaching1 and men like ,mill1 whom he stimulated1 as well as through the disciples who adopted ,positivism as a religion1 his leading principles1 detached from his system1 became current in the world of speculation4 ,footnote3 ,the influence of ,comte4 ,the manner in which ideas filter through1 as it were1 underground and emerge oblivious of their source is illustrated by the ,german historian ,lamprecht's theory of historical development4 ,he surveyed the history of a people as a series of what he called typical periods1 each of which is marked by a collective psychical character expressing itself in every department of life4 ,he named this a diapason4 ,lamprecht had never read ,comte1 and he imagined that this principle1 on which he based his kulturhistorische ,methode1 was original4 ,but his psychical diapason is the psychical consensus of ,comte1 whose system1 as we have seen1 depended on the proposition that a given social organisation corresponds in a definite way to the contemporary stage of mental development2 and ,comte had derived the principle from ,saint-,simon4 ,cf4 his pamphlet ,die kulturhistorische ,methode 7#aijj74 ,the succession of typical period was worked out for ,germany in his ,history of the ,german ,people4 ,he laid the foundations of sociology1 convincing many minds that the history of civilisation is subject to general laws1 or1 in other words1 that a science of society is possible4 ,in ,england this idea was still a novelty when ,mill's ,system of ,logic appeared in #ahdc4 ,the publication of this work1 which attempted to define the rules for the investigation of truth in all fields of inquiry and to provide tests for the hypotheses of science1 was a considerable event1 whether we regard its value and range or its prolonged influence on education4 ,mill1 who had followed recent ,french thought attentively and was particularly impressed by the system of ,comte1 recognised that a new method of investigating social phenomena had been inaugurated by the thinkers who set out to discover the law of human progression4 ,he proclaimed and welcomed it as superior to previous methods1 and at the same time pointed out its limitations4 ,till about fifty years ago1 he said1 generalisations on man and society have erred by implicitly assuming that human nature and society will for ever revolve in the same orbit and exhibit virtually the same phenomena4 ,this is still the view of the ostentatiously practical votaries of common sense in ,great ,britain2 whereas the more reflective minds of the present age1 analysing historical records more minutely1 have adopted the opinion that the human race is in a state of necessary progression4 ,the reciprocal action between circumstances and human nature1 from which social phenomena result1 must produce either a cycle or a trajectory4 ,while ,vico maintained the conception of periodic cycles1 his successors have universally adopted the idea of a trajectory or progress1 and are endeavouring to discover its law4 ,footnote3 ,philosophical writers in ,england in the middle of the century paid more attention to ,cousin than to ,comte or ,saint-,simon4 ,j4 ,d4 ,morell1 in his forgotten ,history and ,critical ,view of ,speculative ,philosophy 7#ahdf71 says that eclecticism is the philosophy of human progress 7vol4 ii4 #fce1 #bnd ed474 ,he conceived the movement of humanity as that of a spiral1 ever tending to a higher perfection 7#fch74 ,but they have fallen into a misconception in imagining that if they can find a law of uniformity in the succession of events they can infer the future from the past terms of the series4 ,for such a law would only be an empirical law2 it would not be a causal law or an ultimate law4 ,however rigidly uniform1 there is no guarantee that it would apply to phenomena outside those from which it was derived4 ,it must itself depend on laws of mind and character 7psychology and ethology74 ,when those laws are known and the nature of the dependence is explained1 when the determining causes of all the changes constituting the progress are understood1 then the empirical law will be elevated to a scientific law1 then only will it be possible to predict4 ,thus ,mill asserted that if the advanced thinkers who are engaged on the subject succeed in discovering an empirical law from the data of history1 it may be converted into a scientific law by deducing it a priori from the principles of human nature4 ,in the meantime1 he argued that what is already known of those principles justifies the important conclusion that the order of general human progression will mainly depend on the order of progression in the intellectual convictions of mankind4 ,throughout his exposition ,mill uses progress in a neutral sense1 without implying that the progression necessarily means improvement4 ,social science has still to demonstrate that the changes determined by human nature do mean improvement4 ,but in warning the reader of this he declares himself to be personally an optimist1 believing that the general tendency1 saving temporary exceptions1 is in the direction of a better and happier state4 #h4 ,twenty years later ,footnote3 ,in later editions of the ,logic4 ,mill was able to say that the conception of history as subject to general laws had passed into the domain of newspaper and ordinary political discussion4 ,buckle's ,,history ,,of ,,civilisation ,,in ,,england ,footnote3 #b ,vol4 i4 appeared in #aheg1 vol4 ii4 in #ahfa4 which enjoyed an immediate success1 did a great deal to popularise the idea4 ,in this stimulating work ,buckle took the fact of ,progress for granted2 his purpose was to investigate its causes4 ,considering the two general conditions on which all events depend1 human nature and external nature1 he arrived at two conclusions3 7#a7 ,in the early stage of history the influence of man's external environment is the more decisive factor2 but as time goes on the roles are gradually inverted1 and now it is his own nature that is principally responsible for his development4 7#b7 ,progress is determined1 not by the emotional and moral faculties1 but by the intellect2 ,footnote3 ,this was the view of ,jouffroy1 ,comte1 and ,mill2 ,buckle popularised it4 the emotional and moral faculties are stationary1 and therefore religion is not a decisive influence in the onward movement of humanity4 ,i pledge myself to show that the progress ,europe has made from barbarism to civilisation is entirely due to its intellectual activity4444 ,in what may be called the innate and original morals of mankind there is1 so far as we are aware1 no progress4 ,footnote3 ,buckle has been very unjustly treated by some critics1 but has found an able defender in ,mr4 ,j4,m4 ,robertson 7,buckle and his ,critics 7#ahie774 ,the remarks of ,benn 7,history of ,rationalism in the ,nineteenth ,century1 ii4 #ahb sqq47 are worth reading4 ,buckle was convinced that social phenomena exhibit the same undeviating regularity as natural phenomena4 ,in this belief he was chiefly influenced by the investigations of the ,belgian statistician ,quetelet 7#ahce74 ,statistics1 he said1 has already thrown more light on the study of human nature than all the sciences put together4 ,from the regularity with which the same crimes recur in the same state of society1 and many other constant averages1 he inferred that all actions of individuals result directly from the state of society in which they live1 and that laws are operating which1 if we take large enough numbers into account1 scarcely undergo any sensible perturbation4 ,footnote3 ,kant had already appealed to statistics in a similar sense2 see above1 p4 #bdc4 ,thus the evidence of statistics points to the conclusion that progress is not determined by the acts of individual men1 but depends on general laws of the intellect which govern the successive stages of public opinion4 ,the totality of human actions at any given time depends on the totality of knowledge and the extent of its diffusion4 ,there we have the theory that history is subject to general laws in its most unqualified form1 based on a fallacious view of the significance of statistical facts4 ,buckle's attempt to show the operation of general laws in the actual history of man was disappointing4 ,when he went on to review the concrete facts of the historical process1 his own political principles came into play1 and he was more concerned with denouncing the tendencies of which he did not approve than with extricating general laws from the sequence of events4 ,his comments on religious persecution and the obscurantism of governments and churches were instructive and timely1 but they did not do much to exhibit a set of rigid laws governing and explaining the course of human development4 ,the doctrine that history is under the irresistible control of law was also popularised by an ,american physiologist1 ,j4 ,w4 ,draper1 whose ,,history ,,of ,,the ,,intellectual ,,development ,,of ,,europe appeared in #ahfd and was widely read4 ,his starting-point was a superficial analogy between a society and an individual4 ,social advancement is as completely under the control of natural law as a bodily growth4 ,the life of an individual is a miniature of the life of a nation1 and particles in the individual organism answer to persons in the political organism4 ,both have the same epochs--infancy1 childhood1 youth1 manhood1 old age--and therefore ,european progress exhibits five phases1 designated as ,credulity1 ,inquiry1 ,faith1 ,reason1 ,decrepitude4 ,draper's conclusion was that ,europe1 now in the fourth period1 is hastening to a long period of decrepitude4 ,the prospect did not dismay him2 decrepitude is the culmination of ,progress1 and means the organisation of national intellect4 ,that has already been achieved in ,china1 and she owes to it her well-being and longevity4 ,europe is inevitably hastening to become what ,china is4 ,in her we may see what we shall be like when we are old4 ,judged by any standard1 ,draper's work is much inferior to ,buckle's1 but both these books1 utterly different though they were in both conception and treatment1 performed a similar function4 ,each in its own way diffused the view which had originated in ,france1 that civilisation is progression and1 like nature1 subject to general laws4 ,,chapter ,,xvii4 ,,progress ,,in ,,the ,,french ,,revolutionary ,,movement 7#ahcj-ahea7 #a4 ,in #ahej there appeared at ,paris a small book by ,m4 ,a4 ,javary1 with the title ,,de ,l',,idee ,,du ,,progres4 ,its interest lies in the express recognition that ,progress was the characteristic idea of the age1 ardently received by some1 hotly denounced by others4 ,footnote3 ,lamartine denounced in his monthly journal ,le ,conseiller du peuple1 vol4 i4 7#ahdi71 all the progressive gospels of the day1 socialist1 communist1 ,saint-,simonian1 ,fourierist1 ,icarian--in fact every school of social reform since the ,first ,republic--as purely materialistic1 sprung from the cold seed of the century of ,helvetius 7pp4 #bbd1 #bhg74 ,if there is any idea1 he says1 that belongs properly to one century1 at least by the importance accorded to it1 and that1 whether accepted or not1 is familiar to all minds1 it is the idea of ,progress conceived as the general law of history and the future of humanity4 ,he observes that some1 intoxicated by the spectacle of the material improvements of modern civilisation and the results of science1 set no limits to man's power or his hopes2 while others1 unable to deny the facts1 say that this progress serves only the lower part of human nature1 and refuse to look with complacency on a movement which means1 they assert1 a continuous decadence of the nobler part4 ,to which it is replied that1 ,if moral decadence is a fact1 it is only transient2 it is a necessary phase of a development which means moral progress in the end1 for it is due to the process by which the beliefs1 ideas1 and institutions of the past disappear and make way for new and better principles4 ,and ,javary notes a prevailing tendency in ,france to interpret every contemporary movement as progressive1 while all the social doctrinaires justify their particular reforms by invoking the law of ,progress4 ,it was quite true that during the ,july monarchy nearly all serious speculations on society and history were related to that idea4 ,it was common to ,michelet and ,quinet1 who saw in the march of civilisation the gradual triumph of liberty2 to ,leroux and ,cabet1 who preached humanitarian communism2 to ,louis ,blanc and to ,proudhon2 to the bourgeois1 who were satisfied with the regime of ,louis ,philippe and grew rich1 following the precept of ,guizot1 as well as to the workers who overthrew it4 ,it is significant that the journal of ,louis ,blanc1 in which he published his book on the ,,organisation ,,of ,,work 7#ahci71 was entitled ,,revus ,,des ,,progres4 ,the political question as to the due limits between government and individual freedom was discussed in terms of ,progress3 is personal liberty or state authority the efficient means of progressing8 ,the metaphysical question of necessity and freewill acquired a new interest3 is ,progress a fatality1 independent of human purposes1 determined by general1 ineluctable1 historical laws8 ,quinet and ,michelet argued vigorously against the optimism of ,cousin1 who with ,hegel held that history is just what it ought to be and could not be improved4 #b4 ,among the competing theories of the time1 and sharply opposed to the views of ,comte1 was the idea1 derived from the ,revolution1 that the world is moving towards universal equality and the obliteration of class distinctions1 that this is the true direction of ,progress4 ,this view1 represented by leaders of the popular movement against the bourgeois ascendency1 derived powerful reinforcement from one of the most enlightened political thinkers of the day4 ,the appearance of de ,tocqueville's renowned study of ,american democracy was the event of #ahcd4 ,he was convinced that he had discovered on the other side of the ,atlantic the answer to the question whither the world is tending4 ,in ,american society he found that equality of conditions is the generating fact on which every other fact depends4 ,he concluded that equality is the goal of humanity1 providentially designed4 ,the gradual development of equality of conditions has the principal characteristics of a providential fact4 ,it is universal1 it is permanent1 it eludes human power2 all events and all men serve this development4444 ,this whole book has been written under the impression of a sort of religious terror produced in the author's soul by the view of this irresistible revolution which for so many centuries has been marching across all obstacles1 and which is to-day seen still advancing in the midst of the ruins it has made4444 ,if the men of our time were brought to see that the gradual and progressive development of equality is at once the past and the future of their history1 this single discovery would give that development the sacred character of the will of the sovran master4 ,here we have a view of the direction of ,progress and the meaning of history1 pretending to be based upon the study of facts and announced with the most intense conviction4 ,and behind it is the fatalistic doctrine that the movement cannot be arrested or diverted2 that it is useless to struggle against it2 that men1 whatever they may do1 cannot deflect the clock-like motion regulated by a power which de ,tocqueville calls ,providence but to which his readers might give some other name4 #c4 ,it has been conjectured1 ,footnote3 ,georges ,sorel1 ,les ,illusions du progres1 pp4 #bdg-h 7#aijh74 and seems probable enough1 that de ,tocqueville's book was one of the influences which wrought upon the mind of ,proudhon4 ,the speculations of this remarkable man1 who1 like ,saint-,simon and ,comte1 sought to found a new science of society1 attracted general attention in the middle of the century4 ,footnote3 ,compare the appreciation by ,weill in ,histoire du mouvement social en ,france #aheb-aiaj 7#aiaa1 ed4 #b71 p4 #da3 ,le grande ecrivain revolutionnaire et anarchiste n'etait au fond ni un revolutionnaire ni un anarchiste1 mais un reformateur pratique et modere qui a fait illusion par le ton vibrant de ses pamphlets centre la societe capitaliste4,his hostility to religion1 his notorious dictum that property is theft1 his gospel of anarchy1 and the defiant1 precipitous phrases in which he clothed his ideas1 created an impression that he was a dangerous anti-social revolutionary4 ,but when his ideas are studied in their context and translated into sober language1 they are not so unreasonable4 ,notwithstanding his communistic theory of property and his ideal of equality1 he was a strong individualist4 ,he held that the future of civilisation depends on the energy of individuals1 that liberty is a condition of its advance1 and that the end to be kept in view is the establishment of justice1 which means equality4 ,he saw the difficulty of reconciling liberty with complete equality1 but hoped that the incompatibility would be overcome by a gradual reduction of the natural differences in men's capacities4 ,he said1 ,i am an anarchist1 but his anarchy only meant that the time would come when government would be superfluous1 when every human being could be trusted to act wisely and morally without a restraining authority or external sanctions4 ,nor was he a ,utopian4 ,he comprehended that such a transformation of society would be a long1 slow process1 and he condemned the schools of ,saint-,simon and ,fourier for imagining that a millennium might be realised immediately by a change of organisation4 ,he tells us that all his speculations and controversial activities are penetrated with the idea of ,progress1 which he described as the railway of liberty2 and his radical criticism on current social theories1 whether conservative or democratic1 was that they did not take ,progress seriously though they invoked it4 ,what dominates in all my studies1 what forms their beginning and end1 their summit and their base1 their reason1 what makes my originality as a thinker 7if ,i have any71 is that ,i affirm ,progress resolutely1 irrevocably1 and everywhere1 and deny the ,absolute4 ,all that ,i have ever written1 all ,i have denied or affirmed1 ,i have written1 denied or affirmed in the name of one unique idea1 ,progress4 ,my adversaries1 on the other hand1 are all partisans of the ,absolute1 ,,in ,,omni ,,genere1 ,,casu1 ,,et ,,numero1 to use the phrase of ,sganarelle4 ,footnote3 ,philosophie du progres1 ,premiere lettre 7#ahea74 #d4 ,a vague confidence in ,progress had lain behind and encouraged the revolution of #aghi1 but in the revolution of #ahdh the idea was definitely enthroned as the regnant principle4 ,it presided over the session of the ,committee which drew up the ,constitution of the second ,republic4 ,armand ,marrast1 the most important of the men who framed that document1 based the measure of universal suffrage upon the invisible law which rules societies1 the law of progress which has been so long denied but which is rooted in the nature of man4 ,his argument was this3 ,revolutions are due to the repression of progress1 and are the expression and triumph of a progress which has been achieved4 ,but such convulsions are an undesirable method of progressing2 how can they be avoided8 ,only by organising elastic institutions in which new ideas of amelioration can easily be incorporated1 and laws which can be accommodated without struggle or friction to the rise of new opinions4 ,what is needed is a flexible government open to the penetration of ideas1 and the key to such a government is universal suffrage4 ,footnote3 ,marrast1 the invisible law2 ,oui1 he continues1 toute societe est progressive1 parce que tout individu est educable1 perfectible2 on peut mesurer1 limiter1 peut-etre les facultes d'un individu2 on ne saurait limiter1 mesurer ce que peuvent1 dans l'ordre des idees1 les intelligences dont les produits ne s'ajoutent pas seulement mais se fecondent et se multiplient dans une progression indefinie4 ,no4 #cic ,republique francoise4 ,assemblee nationale4 ,projet de ,constitution444 precede par un rapport fait au nom de la ,commission par le citoyen ,armand ,marrast4 ,seance du #cj aout1 #ahdh4 ,universal suffrage was practical politics1 but the success of the revolution fluttered agreeably all the mansions of ,utopia1 and social reformers of every type sought to improve the occasion4 ,in the history of the political struggles of #ahdh the names are written of ,proudhon1 of ,victor ,considerant the disciple of ,fourier1 of ,pierre ,leroux the humanitarian communist1 and his devoted pupil ,george ,sand4 ,the chief title of ,leroux to be remembered is just his influence over the soul of the great novelist4 ,her later romances are pervaded by ideas derived from his teaching4 ,his communism was vague and ineffectual1 but he was one of the minor forces in the thought of the period1 and there are some features in his theory which deserve to be pointed out4 ,leroux had begun as a member of the ,saint-,simonian school1 but he diverged into a path of his own4 ,he reinstated the ideal of equality which ,saint-,simon rejected1 and made the approach to that ideal the measure of ,progress4 ,the most significant process in history1 he held1 is the gradual breaking down of caste and class3 the process is now approaching its completion2 today ,,man is synonymous with ,,equal4 ,in order to advance to the city of the future we must have a force and a lever4 ,man is the force1 and the lever is the idea of ,progress4 ,it is supplied by the study of history which displays the improvement of our faculties1 the increase of our power over nature1 the possibility of organising society more efficaciously4 ,but the force and the lever are not enough4 ,a fulcrum is also required1 and this is to be found in the solidarity of the human race4 ,but this conception meant for ,leroux something different from what is ordinarily meant by the phrase1 a deeper and even mystical bond4 ,human solidarity was a corollary from the pantheistic religion of the ,saint-,simonians1 but with ,leroux1 as with ,fourier1 it was derived from the more difficult doctrine of palingenesis4 ,we of this generation1 he believed1 are not merely the sons and descendants of past generations1 we are the past generations themselves1 which have come to birth again in us4 ,through many pages of the two volumes ,footnote3 ,de l'humanite1 #ahdj 7dedicated to ,beranger74 in which he set forth his thesis1 ,leroux expended much useless learning in endeavouring to establish this doctrine1 which1 were it true1 might be the central principle in a new religion of humanity1 a transformed ,pythagoreanism4 ,it is easy to understand the attractiveness of palingenesis to a believer in ,progress3 for it would provide a solution of the anomaly that generations after generations are sacrificed for the sake of posterity1 and so appear to have no value in themselves4 ,believers in ,progress1 who are sensitive to the sufferings of mankind1 past and present1 need a stoical resolution to face this fact4 ,we saw how ,herder refused to accept it4 ,a pantheistic faith1 like that of the ,saint-,simonian ,church1 may help some1 it cannot do more1 to a stoical acquiescence4 ,the palingenesis of ,leroux or ,fourier removes the radical injustice4 ,the men of each generation are sacrificed and suffer for the sake of their descendants1 but as their descendants are themselves come to life again1 they are really suffering in their own interests4 ,they will themselves reach the desirable state to which the slow1 painful process of history is tending4 ,but palingenesis1 notwithstanding all the ancient opinions and traditions that the researches of ,leroux might muster1 could carry little conviction to those who were ceasing to believe in the familiar doctrine of a future life detached from earth1 and ,madame ,dudevant was his only distinguished convert4 #e4 ,the ascendency of the idea of ,progress among thoughtful people in ,france in the middle of the last century is illustrated by the work which ,ernest ,renan composed under the immediate impression of the events of #ahdh4 ,he desired to understand the significance of the current revolutionary doctrines1 and was at once involved in speculation on the future of humanity4 ,this is the purport of ,l',,avenir ,,de ,,la ,,science4 ,footnote3 ,l',avenir de la science--,pensees de 7#ahdh74 ,published in #ahij4 ,footnote3 ,the ascendency of the idea of ,progress at this epoch may be further illustrated by ,e4 ,pelletan's ,profession de foi du dix-neuvieme siecle1 #aheb 7#dth ed41 #aheg71 where ,progress is described as the general law of the universe2 and by ,jean ,reynaud's ,philosophie religieuse3 ,terre et ciel 7#crd ed41 #aheh71 a religious but not orthodox book1 which acclaims the sovran principle of perfectibility 7cp4 p4 #ach74 ,i may refer also to the rhetorical pages of ,e4 ,vacherot on the ,doctrine du progres1 printed 7as part of an essay on the ,philosophy of ,history7 in his ,essais de philosophie critique 7#ahfd74 ,the author was then convinced that history has a goal1 and that mankind tends perpetually1 though in an oscillating line1 towards a more perfect state1 through the growing dominion of reason over instinct and caprice4 ,he takes the ,french ,revolution as the critical moment in which humanity first came to know itself4 ,that revolution was the first attempt of man to take the reins into his own hands4 ,all that went before we may call1 with ,owen1 the irrational period of human existence4 ,we have now come to a point at which we must choose between two faiths4 ,if we despair of reason1 we may find a refuge from utter scepticism in a belief in the external authority of the ,roman ,church4 ,if we trust reason1 we must accept the march of the human mind and justify the modern spirit4 ,and it can be justified only by proving that it is a necessary step towards perfection4 ,renan affirmed his belief in the second alternative1 and felt confident that science--including philology1 on the human bearings of which he enlarged1--philosophy1 and art would ultimately enable men to realise an ideal civilisation1 in which all would be equal4 ,the state1 he said1 is the machine of ,progress1 and the ,socialists are right in formulating the problem which man has to solve1 though their solution is a bad one4 ,for individual liberty1 which socialism would seriously limit1 is a definite conquest1 and ought to be preserved inviolate4 ,renan wrote this work in #ahdh and #ahdi1 but did not publish it at the time4 ,he gave it to the world forty years later4 ,those forty years had robbed him of his early optimism4 ,he continues to believe that the unfortunate conditions of our race might be ameliorated by science1 but he denounces the view that men can ever be equal4 ,inequality is written in nature2 it is not only a necessary consequence of liberty1 but a necessary postulate of ,progress4 ,there will always be a superior minority4 ,he criticises himself too for having fallen into the error of ,hegel1 and assigned to man an unduly important place in the universe4 ,footnote3 ,renan1 speaking of the ,socialists1 paid a high tribute to ,bazard 7,l',avenir de la science1 p4 #ajd74 ,on the other hand1 he criticised ,comte severely 7p4 #adi74 ,renan returned to speculation on the future in #ahfc1 in a letter to ,m4 ,marcellin-,berthelot 7published in ,dialogues et fragments philosophiques1 #ahgf73 ,que sera ,ie monde quand un million de fois se sera reproduit ce qui s'est passe depuis #agfc quand la chimie1 au lieu de quatre-vingt ans de progres1 en aura cent millions8 7p4 #ahc74 ,and again in the ,dialogues written in #ahga 7ib471 where it is laid down that the end of humanity is to produce great men3 le grand oeuvre s'accomplira par la science1 non par la democratic4 ,rien sans grands hommes2 le salut se fera par des grands hommes 7p4 #ajc74 ,in #ahij there was nothing left of the sentimental socialism which he had studied in #ahdh2 it had been blown away by the cold wind of scientific socialism which ,marx and ,engels created4 ,and ,renan had come to think that in this new form socialism would triumph4 ,footnote3 ,he reckoned without the new forces1 opposed to socialism as well as to parliamentary democracy1 represented by ,bakunin and men like ,georges ,sorel4 ,he had criticised ,comte for believing that man lives exclusively by science1 or rather little verbal tags1 like geometrical theorems1 dry formulae4 ,was he satisfied by the concrete doctrine of ,marx that all the phenomena of civilisation at a given period are determined by the methods of production and distribution which then prevail8 ,but the future of socialism is a minor issue1 and the ultimate goal of humanity is quite uncertain4 ,ce qu'il y a de consolant1 c'est qu'on arrive necessairement quelque part4 ,we may console ourselves with the certainty that we must get somewhere4 #f4 ,proudhon described the idea of ,progress as the railway of liberty4 ,it certainly supplied motive power to social ideals which were repugnant and alarming to the authorities of the ,catholic ,church4 ,at the ,vatican it was clearly seen that the idea was a powerful engine driven by an enemy2 and in the famous ,,syllabus of errors which ,pope ,pius ,,ix4 flung in the face of the modern world at the end of #ahfd1 ,progress had the honour of being censured4 ,the eightieth error1 which closes the list1 runs thus3 ,romanus ,pontifex potest ac debet cum progressu1 cum liberalismo et cum recenti civilitate sese reconciliare et componere4 ,the ,roman ,pontiff can1 and ought to1 be reconciled and come to terms with progress1 with liberalism1 and with modern civilisation4 ,no wonder1 seeing that ,progress was invoked to justify every movement that offended the nostrils of the ,vatican--liberalism1 toleration1 democracy1 and socialism4 ,and the ,roman ,church well understood the intimate connection of the idea with the advance of rationalism4 ,,chapter ,,xviii4 ,,material ,,progress3 ,,the ,,exhibition ,,of #ahea #a4 ,it is not easy for a new idea of the speculative order to penetrate and inform the general consciousness of a community until it has assumed some external and concrete embodiment or is recommended by some striking material evidence4 ,in the case of ,progress both these conditions were fulfilled in the period #ahbj to #ahej4 ,in the ,saint-,simonian ,church1 and in the attempts of ,owen and ,cabet to found ideal societies1 people saw practical enterprises inspired by the idea4 ,they might have no sympathy with these enterprises1 but their attention was attracted4 ,and at the same time they were witnessing a rapid transformation of the external conditions of life1 a movement to the continuation of which there seemed no reason for setting any limit in the future4 ,the spectacular results of the advance of science and mechanical technique brought home to the mind of the average man the conception of an indefinite increase of man's power over nature as his brain penetrated her secrets4 ,this evident material progress which has continued incessantly ever since has been a mainstay of the general belief in ,progress which is prevalent to-day4 ,england was the leader in this material progress1 of which the particulars are familiar and need not be enumerated here4 ,the discovery of the power of steam and the potentialities of coal revolutionised the conditions of life4 ,men who were born at the beginning of the century had seen1 before they had passed the age of thirty1 the rapid development of steam navigation1 the illumination of towns and houses by gas1 the opening of the first railway4 ,it was just before this event1 the opening of the ,liverpool and ,manchester railway1 which showed how machinery would abbreviate space as it had ,,sir ,,thomas ,,more1 ,,or ,,colloquies ,,on ,,the ,,progress ,,of ,,society 7#ahbi74 ,there we see the effect of the new force on his imagination4 ,steam1 he says1 will govern the world next1444 and shake it too before its empire is established4 ,the biographer of ,nelson devotes a whole conversation to the subject of steam and war4 ,but the theme of the book is the question of moral and social progress1 on which the author inclines to the view that the world will continue to improve1 even as it has hitherto been continually improving2 and that the progress of knowledge and the diffusion of ,christianity will bring about at last1 when men become ,christian in reality as well as in name1 something like that ,utopian state of which philosophers have loved to dream4 ,this admission of ,progress1 cautious though it was1 circumscribed by reserves and compromised by hesitations1 coming from such a conservative pillar of ,church and ,state as ,southey1 is a notable sign of the times1 when we remember that the idea was still associated then with revolution and heresy4 ,it is significant too that at the same time an octogenarian mathematician of ,aberdeen was composing a book on the same subject4 ,hamilton's ,,progress ,,of ,,society is now utterly forgotten1 but it must have contributed in its day to propagating the same moderate view of ,progress1 consistent with orthodoxy1 which ,southey held4 ,the belief of the perfectibility of human nature and the attainment of a golden age in which vice and misery have no place1 will only be entertained by an enthusiast2 but an inquiry into the means of improving our nature and enlarging our happiness is consistent with sober reason1 and is the most important subject1 merely human1 that can engage the mind of man4 ,footnote3 ,p4 #ac4 ,the book was published posthumously by ,murray in #ahcj1 a year after the author's death4 ,footnote3 ,progress of ,society4 ,the phrase was becoming common2 e4g4 ,russell's ,history of ,modern ,europe 7#ahbb7 has the sub-title ,a view of the ,progress of ,society1 etc4 ,the didactic poem of ,payne ,knight1 ,the ,progress of ,civil ,society 7#agif71 a very dull performance1 was quite unaffected by the dreams of ,priestley or ,godwin4 ,it was towards the middle of the nineteenth century that ,progress1 without any qualifying phrase1 came into use4 #b4 ,we have been told by ,tennyson that when he went by the first train from ,liverpool to ,manchester 7#ahcj7 he thought that the wheels ran in grooves4 ,then ,i made this line3 ,let the great world spin for ever down the ringing grooves of change4 ,footnote3 ,see ,tennyson1 ,memoir by his ,son1 vol4 i4 p4 #aie4 ,,locksley ,,hall1 which was published in #ahdb1 illustrates how the idea of ,progress had begun to creep into the imagination of ,englishmen4 ,though subsidiary to a love story1 it is the true theme of the poem4 ,the pulsation of eager interest in the terrestrial destinies of humanity1 the large excitement of living in a wondrous ,mother-age1 dreams of the future1 quicken the passion of the hero's youth4 ,his disappointment in love disenchants him2 he sees the reverse side of civilisation1 but at last he finds an anodyne for his palsied heart in a more sober version of his earlier faith1 a chastened belief in his ,mother-age4 ,he can at least discern an increasing purpose in history1 and can be sure that the thoughts of men are widened with the process of the suns4 ,the novelty of the poem lay in finding a cathartic cure for a private sorrow1 not in religion or in nature1 but in the modern idea of ,progress4 ,it may be said to mark a stage in the career of the idea4 ,the view of civilisation which ,tennyson took as his ,,motif had no revolutionary implications1 suggested no impatience or anger with the past4 ,the startling prospect unfolding itself before the long result of time1 and history is justified by the promise of to-day3 ,the centuries behind me like a fruitful land reposed4 ,very different was the spirit in which another great poet composed1 nearly twenty years later1 a wonderful hymn of ,progress4 ,victor ,hugo's ,,plein ,,ceil1 in his epic ,,la ,,legende ,,des ,,siecles1,footnote3 ,a4,d4 #ahei4 announces a new era of the world in which man1 the triumphant rebel1 delivered from his past1 will move freely forward on a glorious way4 ,the poet is inspired not by faith in a continuous development throughout the ages1 but by the old spirit of the ,revolution1 and he sees in the past only a heavy chain which the race at last flings off4 ,the horrible past has gone1 not to return3 ce monde est mort2 and the poem is at once a paean on man's victorious rebellion against it and a dithyramb on the prospect of his future4 ,man is imagined as driving through the heavens an aerial car to which the four winds are harnessed1 mounting above the clouds1 and threatening to traverse the ether4 ,superbe1 il plane1 avec un hymne en ses agres2 ,et l'on voit voir passer la strophe du progres4 ,il est la nef1 il est le phare6 ,l'homme enfin prend son sceptre et jette son baton4 ,et l'on voit s'envoler le calcul de ,newton ,monte sur l'ode de ,pindare4 ,but if this vision foreshadows the conquest of the air1 its significance is symbolic rather than literal1 and1 like ,pindar checking the steeds of his song1 ,hugo returns to earth3 ,pas si loin6 pas si haut6 redescendons4 ,restons ,l'homme1 restons ,adam2 mais non l'homme a tatons1 ,mais non l',adam tombe6 ,tout autre reve altere ,l'espece d'ideal qui convient a la terre4 ,contentons-nous du mot3 meilleur6 ecrit partout4 ,dawn has appeared1 after six thousand years in the fatal way1 and man1 freed by the invisible hand from the weight of his chains1 has embarked for new shores3 ,ou va-t-il ce navire8 ,,ii va1 de jour vetu1 ,a l'avenir divin et pur1 a la vertu1 ,a la science qu'on voit luire1 ,a la mort des fleaux1 a l'oubli genereux1 ,a l'abondance1 au caime1 au rire1 a l'homme heureux1 ,il va1 ce glorieux navire4 ,oh6 ce navire fait le voyage sacre6 ,c'est l'ascension bleue a son premier degre2 ,hors de l'antique et vil decombre1 ,hors de la pesanteur1 c'est l'avenir fonde2 ,c'est le destin de l'homme a la fin evade1 ,qui leve l'ancre et sort de l'ombre6 ,the union of humanity in a universal commonwealth1 which ,tennyson had expressed as the ,parliament of ,man1 the ,federation of the ,world1 the goal of many theorists of ,progress1 becomes in ,hugo's imagination something more sublime4 ,the magic ship of man's destiny is to compass the cosmopolis of the ,stoics1 a terrestrial order in harmony with the whole universe4 ,nef magique et supreme6 elle a1 rien qu'eri marchant1 ,change le cri terrestre en pur et joyeux chant1 ,rajeuni les races fletries1 ,etabli l'ordre vrai1 montre le chemin sur1 ,dieu juste6 et fait entrer dans l'homme tant d'azur ,qu'elle a supprime les patries6 ,faisant a l'homme avec le ciel une cite1 ,une pensee avec toute l'immensite1 ,elle abolit les vieilles regles2 ,elle abaisse les monts1 elle annule les tours2 ,splendide1 elle introduit les peuples1 marcheurs lourds1 ,dans la communion des aigles4 #c4 ,between #ahcj and #ahej railway transport spread throughout ,great ,britain and was introduced on the ,continent1 and electricity was subdued to man's use by the invention of telegraphy4 ,the great ,exhibition of ,london in #ahea was1 in one of its aspects1 a public recognition of the material progress of the age and the growing power of man over the physical world4 ,its aim1 said a contemporary1 was to seize the living scroll of human progress1 inscribed with every successive conquest of man's intellect4,footnote3 ,edinburgh ,review 7,october #ahea71 p4 #efb1 in a review of the ,official ,catalogue of the ,exhibition4 ,the ,prince ,consort1 who originated the ,exhibition1 explained its significance in a public speech3 ,nobody who has paid any attention to the peculiar features of our present era will doubt for a moment that we are living at a period of most wonderful transition1 which tends rapidly to accomplish that great end to which indeed all history points--,,the ,,realisation ,,of ,,the ,,unity ,,of ,,mankind4444 ,the distances which separated the different nations and parts of the globe are rapidly vanishing before the achievements of modern invention1 and we can traverse them with incredible ease2 the languages of all nations are known1 and their acquirements placed within the reach of everybody2 thought is communicated with the rapidity1 and even by the power1 of lightning4 ,on the other hand1 the ,,great ,,principle ,,of ,,division ,,of ,,labour1 which may be called the moving power of civilisation1 is being extended to all branches of science1 industry1 and art444 ,gentlemen1 the ,exhibition of #ahea is to give us a true test and a living picture of the point of development at which the whole of mankind has arrived in this great task1 and a new starting-point from which all nations will be able to direct their further exertions4 ,footnote3 ,martin1 ,life of the ,prince ,consort 7ed4 #c71 iii4 p4 #bdg4 ,the speech was delivered at a banquet at the ,mansion ,house on ,march #ba1 #ahej4 ,the point emphasised here is the solidarity of the world4 ,the ,exhibition is to bring home to men's consciousness the community of all the inhabitants of the earth4 ,the assembled peoples1 wrote ,thackeray1 in his ,may-day ,ode1 ,footnote3 ,published in the ,times1 ,april #cj1 #ahea4 ,the ,exhibition was opened on ,may ,i4 ,see the sumptuous banquet set1 ,the brotherhood of nations met ,around the feast4 ,and this was the note struck in the leading article of the ,times on the opening day3 ,the first morning since the creation that all peoples have assembled from all parts of the world and done a common act4 ,it was claimed that the ,exhibition signified a new1 intelligent1 and moral movement which marks a great crisis in the history of the world1 and foreshadows universal peace4 ,england1 said another writer1 produced ,bacon and ,newton1 the two philosophers who first lent direction and force to the stream of industrial science2 we have been the first also to give the widest possible base to the watch-tower of international progress1 which seeks the formation of the physical well-being of man and the extinction of the meaner jealousies of commerce4,footnote3 ,edinburgh ,review1 loc4 cit4 ,these quotations show that the great ,exhibition was at the time optimistically regarded1 not merely as a record of material achievements1 but as a demonstration that humanity was at last well on its way to a better and happier state1 through the falling of barriers and the resulting insight that the interests of all are closely interlocked4 ,a vista was suggested1 at the end of which far-sighted people might think they discerned ,tennyson's ,federation of the ,world4 #d4 ,since the ,exhibition1 western civilisation has advanced steadily1 and in some respects more rapidly than any sober mind could have predicted--civilisation1 at least1 in the conventional sense1 which has been not badly defined as the development of material ease1 of education1 of equality1 and of aspirations to rise and succeed in life4 ,footnote3 ,b4 ,kidd1 ,social ,evolution1 p4 #cfh4 ,the most striking advance has been in the technical conveniences of life--that is1 in the control over natural forces4 ,it would be superfluous to enumerate the discoveries and inventions since #ahej which have abridged space1 economised time1 eased bodily suffering1 and reduced in some ways the friction of life1 though they have increased it in others4 ,this uninterrupted series of technical inventions1 proceeding concurrently with immense enlargements of all branches of knowledge1 has gradually accustomed the least speculative mind to the conception that civilisation is naturally progressive1 and that continuous improvement is part of the order of things4 ,so far the hopes of #ahea have been fulfilled4 ,but against all this technical progress1 with the enormous expansion of industry and commerce1 dazzling to the man in the market-place when he pauses to reflect1 have to be set the exploitation and sufferings of industrial workers1 the distress of intense economic competition1 the heavier burdens of preparation for modern war4 ,the very increase of material ease seemed unavoidably to involve conditions inconsistent with universal happiness2 and the communications which linked the peoples of the world together modified the methods of warfare instead of bringing peace4 ,toutes nos merveilleuses inventions sont aussi puissantes pour le mal que pour le bien4 ,footnote3 ,h4 de ,ferron1 ,theorie du progres 7#ahfg71 ii4 #dci4 ,one fact indeed might be taken as an index that humanity was morally advancing--the abolition of slavery in ,america at the price of a long and sanguinary war4 ,yet some triumphs of philanthropy hardly seemed to endanger the conclusion that1 while knowledge is indefinitely progressive1 there is no good reason for sanguine hopes that man is perfectible or that universal happiness is attainable4 ,a thoughtful writer observed1 discussing ,progress in #ahfd1 that the innumerable individual steps in the growth of knowledge and business organisation have not been combined1 so far1 to produce a general advance in the happiness of life2 each step brings increase of pressure4 ,footnote3 ,lotze1 ,microcosmus 7,eng4 tr471 vol4 ii4 p4 #cif4 ,yet in spite of all adverse facts and many eminent dissenters the belief in social ,progress has on the whole prevailed4 ,this triumph of optimism was promoted by the victory of a revolutionary hypothesis in another field of inquiry1 which suddenly electrified the world4 ,footnote3 ,against ,lotze we might set many opinions which do not seem to have been influenced by the doctrine of evolution4 ,for instance1 the optimism of ,m4 ,marcellin-,berthelot in a letter to ,renan in #ahfc4 ,he says 7,renan1 ,dialogues1 p4 #bcc7 that one of the general results of historical study is the fact of the incessant progress of human societies in science1 in material conditions1 and in morality1 three correlatives4444 ,societies become more and more civilised1 and ,i will venture to say more and more virtuous4 ,the sum of good is always increasing1 and the sum of evil diminishing1 in the same measure as the sum of truth increases and the sum of ignorance diminishes4 ,in #ahfg ,emerson delivered an address at ,harvard on the ,progress of ,culture 7printed in his ,letters and ,social ,aims71 in which he enumerates optimistically the indications of social advance3 the new scope of social science2 the abolition of capital punishment and of imprisonment for debt3 the improvement of prisons2 the efforts for the suppression of intemperance1 vice1 etc41 and asks3 ,who would live in the stone age1 or the bronze1 or the iron1 or the lacustrine8 ,who does not prefer the age of steel1 of gold1 of coal1 petroleum1 cotton1 steam1 electricity1 and the spectroscope8 ,the discursive ,thoughts on the ,future of the ,human ,race1 published in #ahff1 by ,w4 ,ellis 7#ahjj-ha71 a disciple of ,j4 ,s4 ,mill1 would have been remarkable if it had appeared half a century earlier4 ,he is untouched by the theory of evolution1 and argues on common-sense grounds that ,progress is inevitable4 ,,chapter ,,xix4 ,,progress ,,in ,,the ,,light ,,of ,,evolution #a4 ,in the sixties of the nineteenth century the idea of ,progress entered upon the third period of its history4 ,during the ,,first period1 up to the ,french ,revolution1 it had been treated rather casually2 it was taken for granted and received no searching examination either from philosophers or from historians4 ,in the ,,second period its immense significance was apprehended1 and a search began for a general law which would define and establish it4 ,the study of sociology was founded1 and at the same time the impressive results of science1 applied to the conveniences of life1 advertised the idea4 ,it harmonised with the notion of development which had become current both in natural science and in metaphysics4 ,socialists and other political reformers appealed to it as a gospel4 ,by #ahej it was a familiar idea in ,europe1 but was not yet universally accepted as obviously true4 ,the notion of social ,progress had been growing in the atmosphere of the notion of biological development1 but this development still seemed a highly precarious speculation4 ,the fixity of species and the creation of man1 defended by powerful interests and prejudices1 were attacked but were not shaken4 ,the hypothesis of organic evolution was much in the same position as the ,copernican hypothesis in the sixteenth century4 ,then in #ahei ,darwin intervened1 like ,galileo4 ,the appearance of the ,,origin ,,of ,,species changed the situation by disproving definitely the dogma of fixity of species and assigning real causes for transformism4 ,what might be set aside before as a brilliant guess was elevated to the rank of a scientific hypothesis1 and the following twenty years were enlivened by the struggle around the evolution of life1 against prejudices chiefly theological1 resulting in the victory of the theory4 ,the ,,origin ,,of ,,species led to the ,,third stage of the fortunes of the idea of ,progress4 ,we saw how the heliocentric astronomy1 by dethroning man from his privileged position in the universe of space and throwing him back on his own efforts1 had helped that idea to compete with the idea of a busy ,providence4 ,he now suffers a new degradation within the compass of his own planet4 ,evolution1 shearing him of his glory as a rational being specially created to be the lord of the earth1 traces a humble pedigree for him4 ,and this second degradation was the decisive fact which has established the reign of the idea of ,progress4 #b4 ,evolution itself1 it must be remembered1 does not necessarily mean1 applied to society1 the movement of man to a desirable goal4 ,it is a neutral1 scientific conception1 compatible either with optimism or with pessimism4 ,according to different estimates it may appear to be a cruel sentence or a guarantee of steady amelioration4 ,and it has been actually interpreted in both ways4 ,in order to base ,progress on ,evolution two distinct arguments are required4 ,if it could be shown that social life obeys the same general laws of evolution as nature1 and also that the process involves an increase of happiness1 then ,progress would be as valid a hypothesis as the evolution of living forms4 ,darwin had concluded his treatise with these words3 ,as all the living forms of life are the lineal descendants of those which lived long before the ,silurian epoch1 we may feel certain that the ordinary succession by generation has never once been broken1 and that no cataclysm has desolated the whole world4 ,hence we may look with some confidence to a secure future of equally inappreciable length4 ,and as natural selection works solely by and for the good of each being1 all corporeal and mental environments will tend to progress towards perfection4 ,here the evolutionist struck the note of optimism4 ,and he suggested that laws of ,progress would be found in other quarters than those where they had hitherto been sought4 ,the ablest and most influential development of the argument from evolution to ,progress was the work of ,spencer4 ,he extended the principle of evolution to sociology and ethics1 and was the most conspicuous interpreter of it in an optimistic sense4 ,he had been an evolutionist long before ,darwin's decisive intervention1 and in #ahea he had published his ,social ,statics1 which1 although he had not yet worked out the evolutionary laws which he began to formulate soon afterwards and was still a theist1 exhibits the general trend of his optimistic philosophy4 ,progress here appears as the basis of a theory of ethics4 ,the title indicates the influence of ,comte1 but the argument is sharply opposed to the spirit of ,comte's teaching1 and sociology is treated in a new way4 ,footnote3 ,social ,statics1 or the ,conditions ,essential to ,human ,happiness specified1 and the first of them developed1 is the full title4 ,spencer begins by arguing that the constancy of human nature1 so frequently alleged1 is a fallacy4 ,for change is the law of all things1 of every single object as well as of the universe4 ,nature in its infinite complexity is ever growing to a new development4 ,it would be strange if1 in this universal mutation1 man alone were unchangeable1 and it is not true4 ,he also obeys the law of indefinite variation4 ,contrast the houseless savages with ,newtons and ,shakespeares2 between these extremes there are countless degrees of difference4 ,if then humanity is indefinitely variable1 perfectibility is possible4 ,in the second place1 evil is not a permanent necessity4 ,for all evil results from the non-adaptation of the organism to its conditions2 this is true of everything that lives4 ,and it is equally true that evil perpetually tends to disappear4 ,in virtue of an essential principle of life1 this non-adaptation of organisms to their conditions is ever being rectified1 and one or both continue to be modified until the adaptation is perfect4 ,and this applies to the mental as well as to the physical sphere4 ,in the present state of the world men suffer many evils1 and this shows that their characters are not yet adjusted to the social state4 ,now the qualification requisite for the social state is that each individual shall have such desires only as may fully be satisfied without trenching upon the ability of others to obtain similar satisfaction4 ,this qualification is not yet fulfilled1 because civilised man retains some of the characteristics which were suitable for the conditions of his earlier predatory life4 ,he needed one moral constitution for his primitive state1 he needs quite another for his present state4 ,the resultant is a process of adaptation which has been going on for a long time1 and will go on for a long time to come4 ,civilisation represents the adaptations which have already been accomplished4 ,progress means the successive steps of the process4 ,that by this process man will eventually become suited to his mode of life1 ,spencer has no doubts4 ,all excess and deficiency of suitable faculties must disappear2 in other words1 all imperfection4 ,the ultimate development of the ideal man is logically certain--as certain as any conclusion in which we place the most implicit faith2 for instance1 that all men will die4 ,here is the theory of perfectibility asserted1 on new grounds1 with a confidence not less assured than that of ,condorcet or ,godwin4 ,progress then is not an accident1 but a necessity4 ,civilisation is a part of nature1 being a development of man's latent capabilities under the action of favourable circumstances which were certain at some time or other to occur4 ,here ,spencer's argument assumes a final cause4 ,the ultimate purpose of creation1 he asserts1 is to produce the greatest amount of happiness1 and to fulfil this aim it is necessary that each member of the race should possess faculties enabling him to experience the highest enjoyment of life1 yet in such a way as not to diminish the power of others to receive like satisfaction4 ,beings thus constituted cannot multiply in a world tenanted by inferior creatures2 these1 therefore1 must be dispossessed to make room2 and to dispossess them aboriginal man must have an inferior constitution to begin with2 he must be predatory1 he must have the desire to kill4 ,in general1 given an unsubdued earth1 and the human being appointed to overspread and occupy it1 then1 the laws of life being what they are1 no other series of changes than that which has actually occurred could have occurred4 ,the argument might be put in a form free from the assumption of a final cause1 and without introducing the conception of a divine ,providence which in this work ,spencer adopted1 though in his later philosophy it was superseded by the conception of the ,unknowable existing behind all phenomena4 ,but the ,,role of the ,divine ruler is simply to set in motion immutable forces to realise his design4 ,in the moral as in the material world accumulated evidence is gradually generating the conviction that events are not at bottom fortuitous1 but that they are wrought out in a certain inevitable way by unchanging forces4 ,the optimism of ,spencer's view could not be surpassed4 ,after patient study1 he writes1 this chaos of phenomena into the midst of which he man was born has begun to generalise itself to him2 instead of confusion he begins to discern the dim outlines of a gigantic plan4 ,no accidents1 no chance1 but everywhere order and completeness ,one by one exceptions vanish1 and all becomes systematic4 ,always towards perfection is the mighty movement--towards a complete development and a more unmixed good2 subordinating in its universality all petty irregularities and fallings back1 as the curvature of the earth subordinates mountains and valleys4 ,even in evils the student learns to recognise only a struggling beneficence4 ,but above all he is struck with the inherent sufficingness of things4 ,but the movement towards harmony1 the elimination of evil1 will not be effected by idealists imposing their constructions upon the world or by authoritarian governments4 ,it means gradual adaptation1 gradual psychological change1 and its life is individual liberty4 ,it proceeds by the give and take of opposed opinions4 ,guizot had said1 ,progress1 and at the same time resistance4 ,and ,spencer conceives that resistance is beneficial1 so long as it comes from those who honestly think that the institutions they defend are really the best and the proposed innovations absolutely wrong4 ,it will be observed that ,spencer's doctrine of perfectibility rests on an entirely different basis from the doctrine of the eighteenth century4 ,it is one thing to deduce it from an abstract psychology which holds that human nature is unresistingly plastic in the hands of the legislator and the instructor4 ,it is another to argue that human nature is subject to the general law of change1 and that the process by which it slowly but continuously tends to adapt itself more and more to the conditions of social life--children inheriting the acquired aptitudes of their parents--points to an ultimate harmony4 ,here profitable legislation and education are auxiliary to the process of unconscious adaptation1 and respond to the psychological changes in the community1 changes which reveal themselves in public opinion4 #c4 ,during the following ten years ,spencer was investigating the general laws of evolution and planning his ,synthetic ,philosophy which was to explain the development of the universe4 ,footnote3 ,in an article on ,progress3 its ,law and ,cause1 in the ,westminster ,review1 ,april #aheg1 ,spencer explained that social progress1 rightly understood1 is not the increase of material conveniences or widening freedom of action1 but changes of structure in the social organism which entail such consequences1 and proceeded to show that the growth of the individual organism and the growth of civilisation obey the same law of advance from homogeneity to heterogeneity of structure4 ,here he used progress in a neutral sense2 but recognising that a word is required which has no teleological implications 7,autobiography1 i4 #ejj71 he adopted evolution six months later in an article on ,transcendental ,physiology 7,national ,review1 ,oct4 #aheg74 ,in his study of organic laws ,spencer was indirectly influenced by the ideas of ,schelling through von ,baer4 ,he aimed at showing that laws of change are discoverable which control all phenomena alike1 inorganic1 biological1 psychical1 and social4 ,in the light of this hypothesis the actual progression of humanity is established as a necessary fact1 a sequel of the general cosmic movement and governed by the same principles2 and1 if that progression is shown to involve increasing happiness1 the theory of ,progress is established4 ,the first section of the work1 ,,first ,,principles1 appeared in #ahfb4 ,the ,,biology1 the ,,psychology1 and finally the ,,sociology1 followed during the next twenty years2 and the synthesis of the world-process which these volumes lucidly and persuasively developed1 probably did more than any other work1 at least in ,england1 both to drive home the significance of the doctrine of evolution and to raise the doctrine of ,progress to the rank of a commonplace truth in popular estimation1 an axiom to which political rhetoric might effectively appeal4 ,many of those who were allured by ,spencer's gigantic synthesis hardly realised that his theory of social evolution1 of the gradual psychical improvement of the race1 depends upon the validity of the assumption that parents transmit to their children faculties and aptitudes which they have themselves acquired4 ,on this question experts notoriously differ4 ,some day it will probably be definitely decided1 and perhaps in ,spencer's favour4 ,but the theory of continuous psychical improvement by a process of nature encounters an obvious difficulty1 which did not escape some critics of ,spencer1 in the prominent fact of history that every great civilisation of the past progressed to a point at which instead of advancing further it stood still and declined1 to become the prey of younger societies1 or1 if it survived1 to stagnate4 ,arrest1 decadence1 stagnation has been the rule4 ,it is not easy to reconcile this phenomenon with the theory of mental improvement4 ,the receptive attitude of the public towards such a philosophy as ,spencer's had been made possible by ,darwin's discoveries1 which were reinforced by the growing science of palaeontology and the accumulating material evidence of the great antiquity of man4 ,by the simultaneous advances of geology and biology man's perspective in time was revolutionised1 just as the ,copernican astronomy had revolutionised his perspective in space4 ,many thoughtful and many thoughtless people were ready to discern--as ,huxley suggested--in man's long progress through the past1 a reasonable ground of faith in his attainment of a nobler future4 and ,winwood ,reade1 a young ,african traveller1 exhibited it in a vivid book as a long-drawn-out martyrdom4 ,but he was a disciple of ,spencer1 and his hopes for the future were as bright as his picture of the past was dark4 ,,the ,,martyrdom ,,of ,,man1 published in #ahgb1 was so widely read that it reached an eighth edition twelve years later1 and may be counted as one of the agencies which popularised ,spencer's optimism4 ,that optimism was not endorsed by all the contemporary leaders of thought4 ,lotze had asserted emphatically in #ahfd that human nature will not change1 and afterwards he saw no reason to alter his conviction4 ,never one fold and one shepherd1 never one uniform culture for all mankind1 never universal nobleness4 ,our virtue and happiness can only flourish amid an active conflict with wrong4 ,if every stumbling-block were smoothed away1 men would no longer be like men1 but like a flock of innocent brutes1 feeding on good things provided by nature as at the very beginning of their course4 ,footnote3 ,microcosmus1 ,bk4 vii4 #e ad fin4 7,eng4 trans4 p4 #cjj74 ,the first ,german edition 7three vols47 appeared in #ahef-fd1 the third1 from which the ,english translation was made1 in #ahgf4 ,lotze was optimistic as to the durability of modern civilisation3 ,no one will profess to foreknow the future1 but as far as men may judge it seems that in our days there arc greater safeguards than there were in antiquity against unjustifiable excesses and against the external forces which might endanger the continued existence of civilisation4 ,but even if we reject with ,spencer the old dictum1 endorsed by ,lotze as by ,fontenelle1 that human nature is immutable1 the dictum of ultimate harmony encounters the following objection4 ,if the social environment were stable1 it is easy to argue1 it could be admitted that man's nature1 variable ,,ex ,,hypothesi1 could gradually adapt itself to it1 and that finally a definite equilibrium would be established4 ,but the environment is continually changing as the consequence of man's very efforts to adapt himself2 every step he takes to harmonise his needs and his conditions produces a new discord and confronts him with a new problem4 ,in other words1 there is no reason to believe that the reciprocal process which goes on in the growth of society between men's natures and the environment they are continually modifying will ever reach an equilibrium1 or even that1 as the character of the discords changes1 the suffering which they cause diminishes4 ,in fact1 upon the neutral fact of evolution a theory of pessimism may be built up as speciously as a theory of optimism4 ,and such a theory was built up with great power and ability by the ,german philosopher ,e4 von ,hartmann1 whose ,,philosophy ,,of ,,the ,,unconscious appeared in #ahfi4 ,leaving aside his metaphysics and his grotesque theory of the destiny of the universe1 we see here and in his subsequent works how plausibly a convinced evolutionist could revive the view of ,rousseau that civilisation and happiness are mutually antagonistic1 and that ,progress means an increase of misery4 ,huxley himself1 ,footnote3 ,see ,agnosticism in ,nineteenth ,century 7,feb4 #ahhi72 ,government3 ,anarchy or ,regimentation1 ib4 7,may #ahij72 ,essays on ,evolution and ,ethics 7#ahid74 one of the most eminent interpreters of the doctrine of evolution1 did not1 in his late years at least1 entertain very sanguine views of mankind4 ,i know of no study which is so saddening as that of the evolution of humanity as it is set forth in the annals of history4444 ,man is a brute1 only more intelligent than other brutes2 and even the best of modern civilisations appears to me to exhibit a condition of mankind which neither embodies any worthy ideal nor even possesses the merit of stability4 ,there may be some hope of a large improvement1 but otherwise he would welcome a kindly comet to sweep the whole affair away4 ,and he came to the final conclusion that such an improvement could only set in by deliberately resisting1 instead of co-operating with1 the processes of nature4 ,social progress means the checking of the cosmic process at every step and the substitution for it of another which may be called the ethical process4 ,footnote3 ,huxley considers progress exclusively from an ethical1 not from an eudaemonic point of view4 ,how in a few centuries can man hope to gain the mastery over the cosmic process which has been at work for millions of years8 ,the theory of evolution encourages no millennial anticipations4 ,i have quoted these views to illustrate that evolution lends itself to a pessimistic as well as to an optimistic interpretation4 ,the question whether it leads in a desirable direction or not is answered according to the temperament of the inquirer4 ,in an age of prosperity and self-complacency the affirmative answer was readily received1 and the term evolution attracted to itself in common speech the implications of value which belong to ,progress4 ,it may be noticed that the self-complacency of the age was promoted by the popularisation of scientific knowledge4 ,a rapidly growing demand 7especially in ,england7 for books and lectures1 making the results of science accessible and interesting to the lay public1 is a remarkable feature of the second half of the nineteenth century2 and to supply this demand was a remunerative enterprise4 ,this popular literature explaining the wonders of the physical world was at the same time subtly flushing the imaginations of men with the consciousness that they were living in an era which1 in itself vastly superior to any age of the past1 need be burdened by no fear of decline or catastrophe1 but trusting in the boundless resources of science might securely defy fate4 #d4 ,it was said in #ahha by an ,american writer 7who strongly dissented from ,spencer's theory7 that the current view was fatalistic4 ,see ,henry ,george1 ,progress and ,poverty4 ,but it may be doubted whether those of the general public who optimistically accepted evolution without going very deeply into the question really believed that the future of man is taken entirely out of his hands and is determined exclusively by the nature of the cosmic process4 ,bagehot was a writer who had a good deal of influence in his day2 and in ,physics and ,politics 7#ahgb71 where he discusses ,progress1 there is no suggestion of fatalism4 ,in ,france1 the chief philosophical writers who accepted ,progress as a fact protested against a fatalistic interpretation 7,renouvier1 ,cournot1 ,caro2 and cf4 ,l4 ,carrau's article on ,progress in the ,revue des deux ,mondes 7,oct4 #ahge774 ,progress was discussed by ,fiske in his ,outlines of ,cosmic ,philosophy 7#ahgd71 vol4 ii4 #aib sqq4 ,for him 7p4 #bja7 the fundamental characteristic of social progress is the continuous weakening of selfishness and the continuous strengthening of sympathy4 ,thus in the seventies and eighties of the last century the idea of ,progress was becoming a general article of faith4 ,some might hold it in the fatalistic form that humanity moves in a desirable direction1 whatever men do or may leave undone2 others might believe that the future will depend largely on our own conscious efforts1 but that there is nothing in the nature of things to disappoint the prospect of steady and indefinite advance4 ,the majority did not inquire too curiously into such points of doctrine1 but received it in a vague sense as a comfortable addition to their convictions4 ,but it became a part of the general mental outlook of educated people4 ,when ,mr4 ,frederic ,harrison delivered in #ahhi at ,manchester an eloquent discourse on the ,new ,era1 in which the dominant note is the faith in human progress in lieu of celestial rewards of the separate soul1 his general argument could appeal to immensely wider circles than the ,positivists whom he was specially addressing4 ,the dogma--for a dogma it remains1 in spite of the confidence of ,comte or of ,spencer that he had made it a scientific hypothesis--has produced an important ethical principle4 ,consideration for posterity has throughout history operated as a motive of conduct1 but feebly1 occasionally1 and in a very limited sense4 ,with the doctrine of ,progress it assumes1 logically1 a preponderating importance2 for the centre of interest is transferred to the life of future generations who are to enjoy conditions of happiness denied to us1 but which our labours and sufferings are to help to bring about4 ,if the doctrine is held in an extreme fatalistic form1 then our duty is to resign ourselves cheerfully to sacrifices for the sake of unknown descendants1 just as ordinary altruism enjoins the cheerful acceptance of sacrifices for the sake of living fellow-creatures4 ,winwood ,reade indicated this when he wrote1 ,our own prosperity is founded on the agonies of the past4 ,is it therefore unjust that we also should suffer for the benefit of those who are to come8 ,but if it is held that each generation can by its own deliberate acts determine for good or evil the destinies of the race1 then our duties towards others reach out through time as well as through space1 and our contemporaries are only a negligible fraction of the neighbours to whom we owe obligations4 ,the ethical end may still be formulated1 with the ,utilitarians1 as the greatest happiness of the greatest number2 only the greatest number includes1 as ,kidd observed1 the members of generations yet unborn or unthought of4 ,this extension of the moral code1 if it is not yet conspicuous in treatises on ,ethics1 has in late years been obtaining recognition in practice4 #e4 ,within the last forty years nearly every civilised country has produced a large literature on social science1 in which indefinite ,progress is generally assumed as an axiom4 ,but the law whose investigation ,kant designated as the task for a ,newton1 which ,saint-,simon and ,comte did not find1 and to which ,spencer's evolutionary formula would stand in the same relation as it stands to the law of gravitation1 remains still undiscovered4 ,to examine or even glance at this literature1 or to speculate how theories of ,progress may be modified by recent philosophical speculation1 lies beyond the scope of this volume1 which is only concerned with tracing the origin of the idea and its growth up to the time when it became a current creed4 ,looking back on the course of the inquiry1 we note how the history of the idea has been connected with the growth of modern science1 with the growth of rationalism1 and with the struggle for political and religious liberty4 ,the precursors 7,bodin and ,bacon7 lived at a time when the world was consciously emancipating itself from the authority of tradition and it was being discovered that liberty is a difficult theoretical problem4 ,the idea took definite shape in ,france when the old scheme of the universe had been shattered by the victory of the new astronomy and the prestige of ,providence1 ,,cuncta ,,supercilio ,,mouentis1 was paling before the majesty of the immutable laws of nature4 ,there began a slow but steady reinstatement of the kingdom of this world4 ,the otherworldly dreams of theologians1 ceux qui reniaient la terre pour patrie1 which had ruled so long lost their power1 and men's earthly home again insinuated itself into their affections1 but with the new hope of its becoming a place fit for reasonable beings to live in4 ,we have seen how the belief that our race is travelling towards earthly happiness was propagated by some eminent thinkers1 as well as by some not very fortunate persons who had a good deal of time on their hands4 ,and all these high-priests and incense-bearers to whom the creed owes its success were rationalists1 from the author of the ,histoire des oracles to the philosopher of the ,unknowable4 ,,epilogue ,in achieving its ascendency and unfolding its meaning1 the ,idea of ,progress had to overcome a psychological obstacle which may be described as ,,the ,,illusion ,,of ,,finality4 ,it is quite easy to fancy a state of society1 vastly different from ours1 existing in some unknown place like heaven2 it is much more difficult to realise as a fact that the order of things with which we are familiar has so little stability that our actual descendants may be born into a world as different from ours as ours is from that of our ancestors of the pleistocene age4 ,the illusion of finality is strong4 ,the men of the ,middle ,ages would have found it hard to imagine that a time was not far off in which the ,last ,judgement would have ceased to arouse any emotional interest4 ,in the sphere of speculation ,hegel1 and even ,comte1 illustrate this psychological limitation3 they did not recognise that their own systems could not be final any more than the system of ,aristotle or of ,descartes4 ,it is science1 perhaps1 more than anything else--the wonderful history of science in the last hundred years--that has helped us to transcend this illusion4 ,but if we accept the reasonings on which the dogma of ,progress is based1 must we not carry them to their full conclusion8 ,in escaping from the illusion of finality1 is it legitimate to exempt that dogma itself8 ,must not it1 too1 submit to its own negation of finality8 ,will not that process of change1 for which ,progress is the optimistic name1 compel ,progress too to fall from the commanding position in which it is now1 with apparent security1 enthroned8 words in ,greek444 ,a day will come1 in the revolution of centuries1 when a new idea will usurp its place as the directing idea of humanity4 ,another star1 unnoticed now or invisible1 will climb up the intellectual heaven1 and human emotions will react to its influence1 human plans respond to its guidance4 ,it will be the criterion by which ,progress and all other ideas will be judged4 ,and it too will have its successor4 ,in other words1 does not ,progress itself suggest that its value as a doctrine is only relative1 corresponding to a certain not very advanced stage of civilisation2 just as ,providence1 in its day1 was an idea of relative value1 corresponding to a stage somewhat less advanced8 ,or will it be said that this argument is merely a disconcerting trick of dialectic played under cover of the darkness in which the issue of the future is safely hidden by ,horace's prudent god8