,note3 ,images of the original pages are available through ,internet ,archive_/,american ,libraries4 ,see https3_/_/archive4org_/details_/discover yoffutur#jjwelliala ,,the ,,discovery ,,of ,,the ,,future by ,h4 ,g4 ,,wells ,illustration ,new ,york ,b4 ,w4 ,huebsch #aiac ,copyright1 #aiac1 ,by ,b4 ,w4 ,huebsch ,printed in ,u4 ,s4 ,a4 ,,the ,,discovery ,,of ,,the ,,future#a ,,by ,h4 ,g4 ,,wells #a ,a discourse delivered at the ,royal ,institution4 ,it will lead into my subject most conveniently to contrast and separate two divergent types of mind1 types which are to be distinguished chiefly by their attitude toward time1 and more particularly by the relative importance they attach and the relative amount of thought they give to the future4 ,the first of these two types of mind1 and it is1 ,i think1 the predominant type1 the type of the majority of living people1 is that which seems scarcely to think of the future at all1 which regards it as a sort of blank non-existence upon which the advancing present will presently write events4 ,the second type1 which is1 ,i think1 a more modern and much less abundant type of mind1 thinks constantly and by preference of things to come1 and of present things mainly in relation to the results that must arise from them4 ,the former type of mind1 when one gets it in its purity1 is retrospective in habit1 and it interprets the things of the present1 and gives value to this and denies it to that1 entirely with relation to the past4 ,the latter type of mind is constructive in habit1 it interprets the things of the present and gives value to this or that1 entirely in relation to things designed or foreseen4 ,while from that former point of view our life is simply to reap the consequences of the past1 from this our life is to prepare the future4 ,the former type one might speak of as the legal or submissive type of mind1 because the business1 the practice1 and the training of a lawyer dispose him toward it2 he of all men must constantly refer to the law made1 the right established1 the precedent set1 and consistently ignore or condemn the thing that is only seeking to establish itself4 ,the latter type of mind ,i might for contrast call the legislative1 creative1 organizing1 or masterful type1 because it is perpetually attacking and altering the established order of things1 perpetually falling away from respect for what the past has given us4 ,it sees the world as one great workshop1 and the present is no more than material for the future1 for the thing that is yet destined to be4 ,it is in the active mood of thought1 while the former is in the passive2 it is the mind of youth1 it is the mind more manifest among the western nations1 while the former is the mind of age1 the mind of the oriental4 ,things have been1 says the legal mind1 and so we are here4 ,the creative mind says we are here because things have yet to be4 ,now ,i do not wish to suggest that the great mass of people belong to either of these two types4 ,indeed1 ,i speak of them as two distinct and distinguishable types mainly for convenience and in order to accentuate their distinction4 ,there are probably very few people who brood constantly upon the past without any thought of the future at all1 and there are probably scarcely any who live and think consistently in relation to the future4 ,the great mass of people occupy an intermediate position between these extremes1 they pass daily and hourly from the passive mood to the active1 they see this thing in relation to its associations and that thing in relation to its consequences1 and they do not even suspect that they are using two distinct methods in their minds4 ,but for all that they are distinct methods1 the method of reference to the past and the method of reference to the future1 and their mingling in many of our minds no more abolishes their difference than the existence of piebald horses proves that white is black4 ,i believe that it is not sufficiently recognized just how different in their consequences these two methods are1 and just where their difference and where the failure to appreciate their difference takes one4 ,this present time is a period of quite extraordinary uncertainty and indecision upon endless questions--moral questions1 sthetic questions1 religious and political questions--upon which we should all of us be happier to feel assured and settled2 and a very large amount of this floating uncertainty about these important matters is due to the fact that with most of us these two insufficiently distinguished ways of looking at things are not only present together1 but in actual conflict in our minds1 in unsuspected conflict2 we pass from one to the other heedlessly without any clear recognition of the fundamental difference in conclusions that exists between the two1 and we do this with disastrous results to our confidence and to our consistency in dealing with all sorts of things4 ,but before pointing out how divergent these two types or habits of mind really are1 it is necessary to meet a possible objection to what has been said4 ,i may put that objection in this form3 ,is not this distinction between a type of mind that thinks of the past and a type of mind that thinks of the future a sort of hair-splitting1 almost like distinguishing between people who have left hands and people who have right8 ,everybody believes that the present is entirely determined by the past1 you say2 but then everybody believes also that the present determines the future4 ,are we simply separating and contrasting two sides of everybody's opinion8 ,to which one replies that we are not discussing what we know and believe about the relations of past1 present1 and future1 or of the relation of cause and effect to each other in time4 ,we all know the present depends for its causes on the past1 and the future depends for its causes upon the present4 ,but this discussion concerns the way in which we approach things upon this common ground of knowledge and belief4 ,we may all know there is an east and a west1 but if some of us always approach and look at things from the west1 if some of us always approach and look at things from the east1 and if others again wander about with a pretty disregard of direction1 looking at things as chance determines1 some of us will get to a westward conclusion of this journey1 and some of us will get to an eastward conclusion1 and some of us will get to no definite conclusion at all about all sorts of important matters4 ,and yet those who are travelling east1 and those who are travelling west1 and those who are wandering haphazard1 may be all upon the same ground of belief and statement and amid the same assembly of proven facts4 ,precisely the same thing1 divergence of result1 will happen if you always approach things from the point of view of their causes1 or if you approach them always with a view to their probable effects4 ,and in several very important groups of human affairs it is possible to show quite clearly just how widely apart the two methods1 pursued each in its purity1 take those who follow them4 ,i suppose that three hundred years ago all people who thought at all about moral questions1 about questions of ,right and ,wrong1 deduced their rules of conduct absolutely and unreservedly from the past1 from some dogmatic injunction1 some finally settled decree4 ,the great mass of people do so to-day4 ,it is written1 they say4 ,thou shalt not steal1 for example--that is the sole1 complete1 sufficient reason why you should not steal1 and even to-day there is a strong aversion to admit that there is any relation between the actual consequences of acts and the imperatives of right and wrong4 ,our lives are to reap the fruits of determinate things1 and it is still a fundamental presumption of the established morality that one must do right though the heavens fall4 ,but there are people coming into this world who would refuse to call it ,right if it brought the heavens about our heads1 however authoritative its sources and sanctions1 and this new disposition is1 ,i believe1 a growing one4 ,i suppose in all ages people in a timid1 hesitating1 guilty way have tempered the austerity of a dogmatic moral code by small infractions to secure obviously kindly ends1 but it was1 ,i am told1 the ,jesuits who first deliberately sought to qualify the moral interpretation of acts by a consideration of their results4 ,to-day there are few people who have not more or less clearly discovered the future as a more or less important factor in moral considerations4 ,to-day there is a certain small proportion of people who frankly regard morality as a means to an end1 as an overriding of immediate and personal considerations out of regard to something to be attained in the future1 and who break away altogether from the idea of a code dogmatically established forever4 ,most of us are not so definite as that1 but most of us are deeply tinged with the spirit of compromise between the past and the future2 we profess an unbounded allegiance to the prescriptions of the past1 and we practise a general observance of its injunctions1 but we qualify to a vague1 variable extent with considerations of expediency4 ,we hold1 for example1 that we must respect our promises4 ,but suppose we find unexpectedly that for one of us to keep a promise1 which has been sealed and sworn in the most sacred fashion1 must lead to the great suffering of some other human being1 must lead1 in fact1 to practical evil8 ,would a man do right or wrong if he broke such a promise8 ,the practical decision most modern people would make would be to break the promise4 ,most would say that they did evil to avoid a greater evil4 ,but suppose it was not such very great suffering we were going to inflict1 but only some suffering8 ,and suppose it was a rather important promise8 ,with most of us it would then come to be a matter of weighing the promise1 the thing of the past1 against this unexpected bad consequence1 the thing of the future4 ,and the smaller the overplus of evil consequences the more most of us would vacillate4 ,but neither of the two types of mind we are contrasting would vacillate at all4 ,the legal type of mind would obey the past unhesitatingly1 the creative would unhesitatingly sacrifice it to the future4 ,the legal mind would say1 they who break the law at any point break it altogether1 while the creative mind would say1 let the dead past bury its dead4 ,it is convenient to take my illustration from the sphere of promises1 but it is in the realm of sexual morality that the two methods are most acutely in conflict4 ,and ,i would like to suggest that until you have definitely determined either to obey the real or imaginary imperatives of the past1 or to set yourself toward the demands of some ideal of the future1 until you have made up your mind to adhere to one or other of these two types of mental action in these matters1 you are not even within hope of a sustained consistency in the thought that underlies your acts1 that in every issue of principle that comes upon you1 you will be entirely at the mercy of the intellectual mood that happens to be ascendent at that particular moment in your mind4 ,in the sphere of public affairs also these two ways of looking at things work out into equally divergent and incompatible consequences4 ,the legal mind insists upon treaties1 constitutions1 legitimacies1 and charters2 the legislative incessantly assails these4 ,whenever some period of stress sets in1 some great conflict between institutions and the forces in things1 there comes a sorting out of these two types of mind4 ,the legal mind becomes glorified and transfigured in the form of hopeless loyalty1 the creative mind inspires revolutions and reconstructions4 ,and particularly is this difference of attitude accentuated in the disputes that arise out of wars4 ,in most modern wars there is no doubt quite traceable on one side or the other a distinct creative idea1 a distinct regard for some future consequence2 but the main dispute even in most modern wars and the sole dispute in most medival wars will be found to be a reference1 not to the future1 but to the past2 to turn upon a question of fact and right4 ,the wars of ,plantagenet and ,lancastrian ,england with ,france1 for example1 were based entirely upon a dummy claim1 supported by obscure legal arguments1 upon the crown of ,france4 ,and the arguments that centered about the late war in ,south ,africa ignored any ideal of a great united ,south ,african state almost entirely1 and quibbled this way and that about who began the fighting and what was or was not written in some obscure revision of a treaty a score of years ago4 ,yet beneath the legal issues the broad creative idea has been apparent in the public mind during this war4 ,it will be found more or less definitely formulated beneath almost all the great wars of the past century1 and a comparison of the wars of the nineteenth century with the wars of the middle ages will show1 ,i think1 that in this field also there has been a discovery of the future1 an increasing disposition to shift the reference and values from things accomplished to things to come4 ,yet though foresight creeps into our politics and a reference to consequence into our morality1 it is still the past that dominates our lives4 ,but why8 ,why are we so bound to it8 ,it is into the future we go1 to-morrow is the eventful thing for us4 ,there lies all that remains to be felt by us and our children and all those that are dear to us4 ,yet we marshal and order men into classes entirely with regard to the past2 we draw shame and honor out of the past2 against the rights of property1 the vested interests1 the agreements and establishments of the past the future has no rights4 ,literature is for the most part history or history at one remove1 and what is culture but a mold of interpretation into which new things are thrust1 a collection of standards1 a sort of bed of ,king ,og1 to which all new expressions must be lopped or stretched8 ,our conveniences1 like our thoughts1 are all retrospective4 ,we travel on roads so narrow that they suffocate our traffic2 we live in uncomfortable1 inconvenient1 life-wasting houses out of a love of familiar shapes and familiar customs and a dread of strangeness2 all our public affairs are cramped by local boundaries impossibly restricted and small4 ,our clothing1 our habits of speech1 our spelling1 our weights and measures1 our coinage1 our religious and political theories1 all witness to the binding power of the past upon our minds4 ,yet we do not serve the past as the ,chinese have done4 ,there are degrees4 ,we do not worship our ancestors or prescribe a rigid local costume2 we dare to enlarge our stock of knowledge1 and we qualify the classics with occasional adventures into original thought4 ,compared with the ,chinese we are distinctly aware of the future4 ,but compared with what we might be1 the past is all our world4 ,the reason why the retrospective habit1 the legal habit1 is so dominant1 and always has been so predominant1 is of course a perfectly obvious one4 ,we follow a fundamental human principle and take what we can get4 ,all people believe the past is certain1 defined1 and knowable1 and only a few people believe that it is possible to know anything about the future4 ,man has acquired the habit of going to the past because it was the line of least resistance for his mind4 ,while a certain variable portion of the past is serviceable matter for knowledge in the case of everyone1 the future is1 to a mind without an imagination trained in scientific habits of thought1 non-existent4 ,all our minds are made of memories4 ,in our memories each of us has something that without any special training whatever will go back into the past and grip firmly and convincingly all sorts of workable facts1 sometimes more convincingly than firmly4 ,but the imagination1 unless it is strengthened by a very sound training in the laws of causation1 wanders like a lost child in the blankness of things to come and returns empty4 ,many people believe1 therefore1 that there can be no sort of certainty about the future4 ,you can know no more about the future1 ,i was recently assured by a friend1 than you can know which way a kitten will jump next4 ,and to all who hold that view1 who regard the future as a perpetual source of convulsive surprises1 as an impenetrable1 incurable1 perpetual blankness1 it is right and reasonable to derive such values as it is necessary to attach to things from the events that have certainly happened with regard to them4 ,it is our ignorance of the future and our persuasion that that ignorance is absolutely incurable that alone gives the past its enormous predominance in our thoughts4 ,but through the ages1 the long unbroken succession of fortune-tellers--and they flourish still--witnesses to the perpetually smoldering feeling that after all there may be a better sort of knowledge--a more serviceable sort of knowledge than that we now possess4 ,on the whole there is something sympathetic for the dupe of the fortune-teller in the spirit of modern science2 it is one of the persuasions that come into one's mind1 as one assimilates the broad conception of science1 that the adequacy of causation is universal2 that in absolute fact--if not in that little bubble of relative fact which constitutes the individual life--in absolute fact the future is just as fixed and determinate1 just as settled and inevitable1 just as possible a matter of knowledge as the past4 ,our personal memory gives us an impression of the superior reality and trustworthiness of things in the past1 as of things that have finally committed themselves and said their say1 but the more clearly we master the leading conceptions of science the better we understand that this impression is one of the results of the peculiar conditions of our lives1 and not an absolute truth4 ,the man of science comes to believe at last that the events of the year ,a4,d4 #djjj are as fixed1 settled1 and unchangeable as the events of the year #afjj4 ,only about the latter he has some material for belief and about the former practically none4 ,and the question arises how far this absolute ignorance of the future is a fixed and necessary condition of human life1 and how far some application of intellectual methods may not attenuate even if it does not absolutely set aside the veil between ourselves and things to come4 ,and ,i am venturing to suggest to you that along certain lines and with certain qualifications and limitations a working knowledge of things in the future is a possible and practicable thing4 ,and in order to support this suggestion ,i would call your attention to certain facts about our knowledge of the past1 and more particularly ,i would insist upon this1 that about the past our range of absolute certainty is very limited indeed4 ,about the past ,i would suggest we are inclined to overestimate our certainty1 just as ,i think we are inclined to underestimate the certainties of the future4 ,and such a knowledge of the past as we have is not all of the same sort or derived from the same sources4 ,let us consider just what an educated man of to-day knows of the past4 ,first of all he has the realest of all knowledge--the knowledge of his own personal experiences1 his memory4 ,uneducated people believe their memories absolutely1 and most educated people believe them with a few reservations4 ,some of us take up a critical attitude even toward our own memories2 we know that they not only sometimes drop things out1 but that sometimes a sort of dreaming or a strong suggestion will put things in4 ,but for all that1 memory remains vivid and real as no other knowledge can be1 and to have seen and heard and felt is to be nearest to absolute conviction4 ,yet our memory of direct impressions is only the smallest part of what we know4 ,outside that bright area comes knowledge of a different order--the knowledge brought to us by other people4 ,outside our immediate personal memory there comes this wider area of facts or quasi facts told us by more or less trustworthy people1 told us by word of mouth or by the written word of living and of dead writers4 ,this is the past of report1 rumor1 tradition1 and history--the second sort of knowledge of the past4 ,the nearer knowledge of this sort is abundant and clear and detailed1 remoter it becomes vaguer1 still more remotely in time and space it dies down to brief1 imperfect inscriptions and enigmatical traditions1 and at last dies away1 so far as the records and traditions of humanity go1 into a doubt and darkness as blank1 just as blank1 as futurity4 ,and now let me remind you that this second zone of knowledge outside the bright area of what we have felt and witnessed and handled for ourselves--this zone of hearsay and history and tradition--completed the whole knowledge of the past that was accessible to ,shakespeare1 for example4 ,to these limits man's knowledge of the past was absolutely confined1 save for some inklings and guesses1 save for some small1 almost negligible beginnings1 until the nineteenth century began4 ,besides the correct knowledge in this scheme of hearsay and history a man had a certain amount of legend and error that rounded off the picture in a very satisfactory and misleading way1 according to ,bishop ,ussher1 just exactly #djjd years ,b4,c4 ,and that was man's universal history--that was his all--until the scientific epoch began4 ,and beyond those limits--8 ,well1 ,i suppose the educated man of the sixteenth century was as certain of the non-existence of anything before the creation of the world as he was1 and as most of us are still1 of the practical non-existence of the future1 or at any rate he was as satisfied of the impossibility of knowledge in the one direction as in the other4 ,but modern science1 that is to say the relentless systematic criticism of phenomena1 has in the past hundred years absolutely destroyed the conception of a finitely distant beginning of things2 has abolished such limits to the past as a dated creation set1 and added an enormous vista to that limited sixteenth century outlook4 ,and what ,i would insist upon is that this further knowledge is a new kind of knowledge1 obtained in a new kind of way4 ,we know to-day1 quite as confidently and in many respects more intimately than we know ,sargon or ,zenobia or ,caractacus1 the form and the habits of creatures that no living being has ever met1 that no human eye has ever regarded1 and the character of scenery that no man has ever seen or can ever possibly see2 we picture to ourselves the labyrinthodon raising its clumsy head above the water of the carboniferous swamps in which he lived1 and we figure the pterodactyls1 those great bird lizards1 flapping their way athwart the forests of the ,mesozoic age with exactly the same certainty as that with which we picture the rhinoceros or the vulture4 ,i doubt no more about the facts in this farther picture than ,i do about those in the nearest4 ,i believe in the megatherium which ,i have never seen as confidently as ,i believe in the hippopotamus that has engulfed buns from my hand4 ,a vast amount of detail in that farther picture is now fixed and finite for all time4 ,and a countless number of investigators are persistently and confidently enlarging1 amplifying1 correcting1 and pushing farther and farther back the boundaries of this greater past--this prehuman past--that the scientific criticism of existing phenomena has discovered and restored and brought for the first time into the world of human thought4 ,we have become possessed of a new and once unsuspected history of the world--of which all the history that was known1 for example1 to ,dr4 ,johnson is only the brief concluding chapter2 and even that concluding chapter has been greatly enlarged and corrected by the exploring archologists working strictly upon the lines of the new method--that is to say1 the comparison and criticism of suggestive facts4 ,i want particularly to insist upon this1 that all this outer past--this non-historical past--is the product of a new and keener habit of inquiry1 and no sort of revelation4 ,it is simply due to a new and more critical way of looking at things4 ,our knowledge of the geological past1 clear and definite as it has become1 is of a different and lower order than the knowledge of our memory1 and yet of a quite practicable and trustworthy order--a knowledge good enough to go upon2 and if one were to speak of the private memory as the personal past1 of the next wider area of knowledge as the traditional or historical past1 then one might call all that great and inspiring background of remoter geological time the inductive past4 ,and this great discovery of the inductive past was got by the discussion and rediscussion and effective criticism of a number of existing facts1 odd-shaped lumps of stone1 streaks and bandings in quarries and cliffs1 anatomical and developmental detail that had always been about in the world1 that had been lying at the feet of mankind so long as mankind had existed1 but that no one had ever dreamed before could supply any information at all1 much more reveal such astounding and enlightening vistas4 ,looked at in a new way they became sources of dazzling and penetrating light4 ,the remoter past lit up and became a picture4 ,considered as effects1 compared and criticised1 they yielded a clairvoyant vision of the history of interminable years4 ,and now1 if it has been possible for men by picking out a number of suggestive and significant looking things in the present1 by comparing them1 criticising them1 and discussing them1 with a perpetual insistence upon ,why8 without any guiding tradition1 and indeed in the teeth of established beliefs1 to construct this amazing searchlight of inference into the remoter past1 is it really1 after all1 such an extravagant and hopeless thing to suggest that1 by seeking for operating causes instead of for fossils1 and by criticising them as persistently and thoroughly as the geological record has been criticised1 it may be possible to throw a searchlight of inference forward instead of backward1 and to attain to a knowledge of coming things as clear1 as universally convincing1 and infinitely more important to mankind than the clear vision of the past that geology has opened to us during the nineteenth century8 ,let us grant that anything to correspond with the memory1 anything having the same relation to the future that memory has to the past1 is out of the question4 ,we cannot imagine1 of course1 that we can ever know any personal future to correspond with our personal past1 or any traditional future to correspond with our traditional past2 but the possibility of an inductive future to correspond with that great inductive past of geology and archology is an altogether different thing4 ,i must confess that ,i believe quite firmly that an inductive knowledge of a great number of things in the future is becoming a human possibility4 ,i believe that the time is drawing near when it will be possible to suggest a systematic exploration of the future4 ,and you must not judge the practicability of this enterprise by the failures of the past4 ,so far nothing has been attempted1 so far no first-class mind has ever focused itself upon these issues2 but suppose the laws of social and political development1 for example1 were given as many brains1 were given as much attention1 criticism1 and discussion as we have given to the laws of chemical combination during the last fifty years1 what might we not expect8 ,to the popular mind of to-day there is something very difficult in such a suggestion1 soberly made4 ,but here1 in this institution 7the ,royal ,institution of ,london7 which has watched for a whole century over the splendid adolescence of science1 and where the spirit of science is surely understood1 you will know that as a matter of fact prophecy has always been inseparably associated with the idea of scientific research4 ,the popular idea of scientific investigation is a vehement1 aimless collection of little facts1 collected as a bower bird collects shells and pebbles1 in methodical little rows1 and out of this process1 in some manner unknown to the popular mind1 certain conjuring tricks--the celebrated wonders of science--in a sort of accidental way emerge4 ,the popular conception of all discovery is accident4 ,but you will know that the essential thing in the scientific process is not the collection of facts1 but the analysis of facts4 ,facts are the raw material and not the substance of science4 ,it is analysis that has given us all ordered knowledge1 and you know that the aim and the test and the justification of the scientific process is not a marketable conjuring trick1 but prophecy4 ,until a scientific theory yields confident forecasts you know it is unsound and tentative2 it is mere theorizing1 as evanescent as art talk or the phantoms politicians talk about4 ,the splendid body of gravitational astronomy1 for example1 establishes itself upon the certain forecast of stellar movements1 and you would absolutely refuse to believe its amazing assertions if it were not for these same unerring forecasts4 ,the whole body of medical science aims1 and claims the ability1 to diagnose4 ,meteorology constantly and persistently aims at prophecy1 and it will never stand in a place of honor until it can certainly foretell4 ,the chemist forecasts elements before he meets them--it is very properly his boast--and the splendid manner in which the mind of ,clerk ,maxwell reached in front of all experiments and foretold those things that ,marconi has materialized is familiar to us all4 ,all applied mathematics resolves into computation to foretell things which otherwise can only be determined by trial4 ,even in so unscientific a science as economics there have been forecasts4 ,and if ,i am right in saying that science aims at prophecy1 and if the specialist in each science is in fact doing his best now to prophesy within the limits of his field1 what is there to stand in the way of our building up this growing body of forecast into an ordered picture of the future that will be just as certain1 just as strictly science1 and perhaps just as detailed as the picture that has been built up within the last hundred years of the geological past8 ,well1 so far and until we bring the prophecy down to the affairs of man and his children1 it is just as possible to carry induction forward as back2 it is just as simple and sure to work out the changing orbit of the earth in the future until the tidal drag hauls one unchanging face at last toward the sun as it is to work back to its blazing and molten past4 ,until man comes in1 the inductive future is as real and convincing as the inductive past4 ,but inorganic forces are the smaller part and the minor interest in this concern4 ,directly man becomes a factor the nature of the problem changes1 and our whole present interest centers on the question whether man is1 indeed1 individually and collectively incalculable1 a new element which entirely alters the nature of our inquiry and stamps it at once as vain and hopeless1 or whether his presence complicates1 but does not alter1 the essential nature of the induction4 ,how far may we hope to get trustworthy inductions about the future of man8 ,well1 ,i think1 on the whole1 we are inclined to underrate our chance of certainties in the future1 just as ,i think we are inclined to be too credulous about the historical past4 ,the vividness of our personal memories1 which are the very essence of reality to us1 throws a glamor of conviction over tradition and past inductions4 ,but the personal future must in the very nature of things be hidden from us so long as time endures1 and this black ignorance at our very feet--this black shadow that corresponds to the brightness of our memories behind us--throws a glamor of uncertainty and unreality over all the future4 ,we are continually surprising ourselves by our own will or want of will2 the individualities about us are continually producing the unexpected1 and it is very natural to reason that as we can never be precisely sure before the time comes what we are going to do and feel1 and if we can never count with absolute certainty upon the acts and happenings even of our most intimate friends1 how much the more impossible is it to anticipate the behavior in any direction of states and communities4 ,in reply to which ,i would advance the suggestion that an increase in the number of human beings considered may positively simplify the case instead of complicating it2 that as the individuals increase in number they begin to average out4 ,let me illustrate this point by a comparison4 ,angular pit-sand has grains of the most varied shapes4 ,examined microscopically1 you will find all sorts of angles and outlines and variations4 ,before you look you can say of no particular grain what its outline will be4 ,and if you shoot a load of such sand from a cart you cannot foretell with any certainty where any particular grain will be in the heap that you make2 but you can tell--you can tell pretty definitely--the form of the heap as a whole4 ,and further1 if you pass that sand through a series of shoots and finally drop it some distance to the ground1 you will be able to foretell that grains of a certain sort of form and size will for the most part be found in one part of the heap and grains of another sort of form and size will be found in another part of the heap4 ,in such a case1 you see1 the thing as a whole may be simpler than its component parts1 and this ,i submit is also the case in many human affairs4 ,so that because the individual future eludes us completely that is no reason why we should not aspire to1 and discover and use1 safe and serviceable1 generalizations upon countless important issues in the human destiny4 ,but there is a very grave and important-looking difference between a load of sand and a multitude of human beings1 and this ,i must face and examine4 ,our thoughts and wills and emotions are contagious4 ,an exceptional sort of sand grain1 a sand grain that was exceptionally big and heavy1 for example1 exerts no influence worth considering upon any other of the sand grains in the load4 ,they will fall and roll and heap themselves just the same whether that exceptional grain is with them or not2 but an exceptional man comes into the world1 a ,csar or a ,napoleon or a ,peter the ,hermit1 and he appears to persuade and convince and compel and take entire possession of the sand heap--,i mean the community--and to twist and alter its destinies to an almost unlimited extent4 ,and if this is indeed the case1 it reduces our project of an inductive knowledge of the future to very small limits4 ,to hope to foretell the birth and coming of men of exceptional force and genius is to hope incredibly1 and if1 indeed1 such exceptional men do as much as they seem to do in warping the path of humanity1 our utmost prophetic limit in human affairs is a conditional sort of prophecy4 ,if people do so and so1 we can say1 then such and such results will follow1 and we must admit that that is our limit4 ,but everybody does not believe in the importance of the leading man4 ,there are those who will say that the whole world is different by reason of ,napoleon4 ,there are those who will say that the world of to-day would be very much as it is now if ,napoleon had never been born4 ,other men would have arisen to make ,napoleon's conquests and codify the law1 redistribute the worn-out boundaries of ,europe and achieve all those changes which we so readily ascribe to ,napoleon's will alone4 ,there are those who believe entirely in the individual man and those who believe entirely in the forces behind the individual man1 and for my own part ,i must confess myself a rather extreme case of the latter kind4 ,i must confess ,i believe that if by some juggling with space and time ,julius ,csar1 ,napoleon1 ,edward ,,iv41 ,william the ,conqueror1 ,lord ,rosebery1 and ,robert ,burns had all been changed at birth it would not have produced any serious dislocation of the course of destiny4 ,i believe that these great men of ours are no more than images and symbols and instruments taken1 as it were1 haphazard by the incessant and consistent forces behind them2 they are the pen-nibs ,fate has used for her writing1 the diamonds upon the drill that pierces through the rock4 ,and the more one inclines to this trust in forces the more one will believe in the possibility of a reasoned inductive view of the future that will serve us in politics1 in morals1 in social contrivances1 and in a thousand spacious ways4 ,and even those who take the most extreme and personal and melodramatic view of the ways of human destiny1 who see life as a tissue of fairy godmother births and accidental meetings and promises and jealousies1 will1 ,i suppose1 admit there comes a limit to these things--that at last personality dies away and the greater forces come to their own4 ,the great man1 however great he be1 cannot set back the whole scheme of things2 what he does in right and reason will remain1 and what he does against the greater creative forces will perish4 ,we cannot foresee him2 let us grant that4 ,his personal difference1 the splendor of his effect1 his dramatic arrangement of events will be his own--in other words1 we cannot estimate for accidents and accelerations and delays2 but if only we throw our web of generalization wide enough1 if only we spin our rope of induction strong enough1 the final result of the great man1 his ultimate surviving consequences1 will come within our net4 ,such1 then1 is the sort of knowledge of the future that ,i believe is attainable and worth attaining4 ,i believe that the deliberate direction of historical study and of economic and social study toward the future and an increasing reference1 a deliberate and courageous reference1 to the future in moral and religious discussion1 would be enormously stimulating and enormously profitable to our intellectual life4 ,i have done my best to suggest to you that such an enterprise is now a serious and practicable undertaking4 ,but at the risk of repetition ,i would call your attention to the essential difference that must always hold between our attainable knowledge of the future and our existing knowledge of the past4 ,the portion of the past that is brightest and most real to each of us is the individual past--the personal memory4 ,the portion of the future that must remain darkest and least accessible is the individual future4 ,scientific prophecy will not be fortune-telling1 whatever else it may be4 ,those excellent people who cast horoscopes1 those illegal fashionable palm-reading ladies who abound so much to-day1 in whom nobody is so foolish as to believe1 and to whom everybody is foolish enough to go1 need fear no competition from the scientific prophets4 ,the knowledge of the future we may hope to gain will be general and not individual2 it will be no sort of knowledge that will either hamper us in the exercise of our individual free will or relieve us of our personal responsibility4 ,and now1 how far is it possible at the present time to speculate on the particular outline the future will assume when it is investigated in this way8 ,it is interesting1 before we answer that question1 to take into account the speculations of a certain sect and culture of people who already1 before the middle of last century1 had set their faces toward the future as the justifying explanation of the present4 ,these were the positivists1 whose position is still most eloquently maintained and displayed by ,mr4 ,frederic ,harrison1 in spite of the great expansion of the human outlook that has occurred since ,comte4 ,if you read ,mr4 ,harrison1 and if you are also1 as ,i presume your presence here indicates1 saturated with that new wine of more spacious knowledge that has been given the world during the last fifty years1 you will have been greatly impressed by the peculiar limitations of the positivist conception of the future4 ,so far as ,i can gather1 ,comte was1 for all practical purposes1 totally ignorant of that remoter past outside the past that is known to us by history1 or if he was not totally ignorant of its existence1 he was1 and conscientiously remained1 ignorant of its relevancy to the history of humanity4 ,in the narrow and limited past he recognized men had always been like the men of to-day2 in the future he could not imagine that they would be anything more than men like the men of to-day4 ,he perceived1 as we all perceive1 that the old social order was breaking up1 and after a richly suggestive and incomplete analysis of the forces that were breaking it up he set himself to plan a new static social order to replace it4 ,if you will read ,comte1 or1 what is much easier and pleasanter1 if you will read ,mr4 ,frederic ,harrison1 you will find this conception constantly apparent--that there was once a stable condition of society with humanity1 so to speak1 sitting down in an orderly and respectable manner2 that humanity has been stirred up and is on the move1 and that finally it will sit down again on a higher plane1 and for good and all1 cultured and happy1 in the reorganized positivist state4 ,and since he could see nothing beyond man in the future1 there1 in that millennial fashion1 ,comte had to end4 ,since he could imagine nothing higher than man1 he had to assert that humanity1 and particularly the future of humanity1 was the highest of all conceivable things4 ,all that was perfectly comprehensible in a thinker of the first half of the nineteenth century4 ,but we of the early twentieth1 and particularly that growing majority of us who have been born since the ,origin of ,species was written1 have no excuse for any such limited vision4 ,our imaginations have been trained upon a past in which the past that ,comte knew is scarcely more than the concluding moment4 ,we perceive that man1 and all the world of men1 is no more than the present phase of a development so great and splendid that beside this vision epics jingle like nursery rhymes1 and all the exploits of humanity shrivel to the proportion of castles in the sand4 ,we look back through countless millions of years and see the will to live struggling out of the intertidal slime1 struggling from shape to shape and from power to power1 crawling and then walking confidently upon the land1 struggling generation after generation to master the air1 creeping down into the darkness of the deep2 we see it turn upon itself in rage and hunger and reshape itself anew2 we watch it draw nearer and more akin to us1 expanding1 elaborating itself1 pursuing its relentless1 inconceivable purpose1 until at last it reaches us and its being beats through our brains and arteries1 throbs and thunders in our battleships1 roars through our cities1 sings in our music1 and flowers in our art4 ,and when1 from that retrospect1 we turn again toward the future1 surely any thought of finality1 any millennial settlement of cultured persons1 has vanished from our minds4 ,this fact that man is not final is the great unmanageable1 disturbing fact that arises upon us in the scientific discovery of the future1 and to my mind1 at any rate1 the question what is to come after man is the most persistently fascinating and the most insoluble question in the whole world4 ,of course we have no answer4 ,such imaginations as we have refuse to rise to the task4 ,but for the nearer future1 while man is still man1 there are a few general statements that seem to grow more certain4 ,it seems to be pretty generally believed to-day that our dense populations are in the opening phase of a process of diffusion and aeration4 ,it seems pretty inevitable also that at least the mass of white population in the world will be forced some way up the scale of education and personal efficiency in the next two or three decades4 ,it is not difficult to collect reasons for supposing--and such reasons have been collected--that in the near future1 in a couple of hundred years1 as one rash optimist has written1 or in a thousand or so1 humanity will be definitely and conscientiously organizing itself as a great world state--a great world state that will purge from itself much that is mean1 much that is bestial1 and much that makes for individual dullness and dreariness1 grayness and wretchedness in the world of to-day2 and although we know that there is nothing final in that world state1 although we see it only as something to be reached and passed1 although we are sure there will be no such sitting down to restore and perfect a culture as the positivists foretell1 yet few people can persuade themselves to see anything beyond that except in the vaguest and most general terms4 ,that world state of more vivid1 beautiful1 and eventful people is1 so to speak1 on the brow of the hill1 and we cannot see over1 though some of us can imagine great uplands beyond and something1 something that glitters elusively1 taking first one form and then another1 through the haze4 ,we can see no detail1 we can see nothing definable1 and it is simply1 ,i know1 the sanguine necessity of our minds that makes us believe those uplands of the future are still more gracious and splendid than we can either hope or imagine4 ,but of things that can be demonstrated we have none4 ,yet ,i suppose most of us entertain certain necessary persuasions1 without which a moral life in this world is neither a reasonable nor a possible thing4 ,all this paper is built finally upon certain negative beliefs that are incapable of scientific establishment4 ,our lives and powers are limited1 our scope in space and time is limited1 and it is not unreasonable that for fundamental beliefs we must go outside the sphere of reason and set our feet upon faith4 ,implicit in all such speculations as this is a very definite and quite arbitrary belief1 and that belief is that neither humanity nor in truth any individual human being is living its life in vain4 ,and it is entirely by an act of faith that we must rule out of our forecasts certain possibilities1 certain things that one may consider improbable and against the chances1 but that no one upon scientific grounds can call impossible4 ,one must admit that it is impossible to show why certain things should not utterly destroy and end the entire human race and story1 why night should not presently come down and make all our dreams and efforts vain4 ,it is conceivable1 for example1 that some great unexpected mass of matter should presently rush upon us out of space1 whirl sun and planets aside like dead leaves before the breeze1 and collide with and utterly destroy every spark of life upon this earth4 ,so far as positive human knowledge goes1 this is a conceivably possible thing4 ,there is nothing in science to show why such a thing should not be4 ,it is conceivable1 too1 that some pestilence may presently appear1 some new disease1 that will destroy1 not #aj or #ae or #bj per cent4 of the earth's inhabitants as pestilences have done in the past1 but #ajj per cent42 and so end our race4 ,no one1 speaking from scientific grounds alone1 can say1 ,that cannot be4 ,and no one can dispute that some great disease of the atmosphere1 some trailing cometary poison1 some great emanation of vapor from the interior of the earth1 such as ,mr4 ,shiel has made a brilliant use of in his ,purple ,cloud1 is consistent with every demonstrated fact in the world4 ,there may arise new animals to prey upon us by land and sea1 and there may come some drug or a wrecking madness into the minds of men4 ,and finally1 there is the reasonable certainty that this sun of ours must radiate itself toward extinction2 that1 at least1 must happen2 it will grow cooler and cooler1 and its planets will rotate ever more sluggishly until some day this earth of ours1 tideless and slow moving1 will be dead and frozen1 and all that has lived upon it will be frozen out and done with4 ,there surely man must end4 ,that of all such nightmares is the most insistently convincing4 ,and yet one doesn't believe it4 ,at least ,i do not4 ,and ,i do not believe in these things because ,i have come to believe in certain other things--in the coherency and purpose in the world and in the greatness of human destiny4 ,worlds may freeze and suns may perish1 but there stirs something within us now that can never die again4 ,do not misunderstand me when ,i speak of the greatness of human destiny4 ,if ,i may speak quite openly to you1 ,i will confess that1 considered as a final product1 ,i do not think very much of myself or 7saving your presence7 my fellow-creatures4 ,i do not think ,i could possibly join in the worship of humanity with any gravity or sincerity4 ,think of it6 ,think of the positive facts4 ,there are surely moods for all of us when one can feel ,swift's amazement that such a being should deal in pride4 ,there are moods when one can join in the laughter of ,democritus2 and they would come oftener were not the spectacle of human littleness so abundantly shot with pain4 ,but it is not only with pain that the world is shot--it is shot with promise4 ,small as our vanity and carnality make us1 there has been a day of still smaller things4 ,it is the long ascent of the past that gives the lie to our despair4 ,we know now that all the blood and passion of our life were represented in the ,carboniferous time by something--something1 perhaps1 cold-blooded and with a clammy skin1 that lurked between air and water1 and fled before the giant amphibia of those days4 ,for all the folly1 blindness1 and pain of our lives1 we have come some way from that4 ,and the distance we have travelled gives us some earnest of the way we have yet to go4 ,why should things cease at man8 ,why should not this rising curve rise yet more steeply and swiftly8 ,there are many things to suggest that we are now in a phase of rapid and unprecedented development4 ,the conditions under which men live are changing with an ever-increasing rapidity1 and1 so far as our knowledge goes1 no sort of creatures have ever lived under changing conditions without undergoing the profoundest changes themselves4 ,in the past century there was more change in the conditions of human life than there had been in the previous thousand years4 ,a hundred years ago inventors and investigators were rare scattered men1 and now invention and inquiry are the work of an unorganized army4 ,this century will see changes that will dwarf those of the nineteenth century1 as those of the nineteenth dwarf those of the eighteenth4 ,one can see no sign anywhere that this rush of change will be over presently1 that the positivist dream of a social reconstruction and of a new static culture phase will ever be realized4 ,human society never has been quite static1 and it will presently cease to attempt to be static4 ,everything seems pointing to the belief that we are entering upon a progress that will go on1 with an ever-widening and ever more confident stride1 forever4 ,the reorganization of society that is going on now beneath the traditional appearance of things is a kinetic reorganization4 ,we are getting into marching order4 ,we have struck our camp forever and we are out upon the roads4 ,we are in the beginning of the greatest change that humanity has ever undergone4 ,there is no shock1 no epoch-making incident--but then there is no shock at a cloudy daybreak4 ,at no point can we say1 ,here it commences1 now2 last minute was night and this is morning4 ,but insensibly we are in the day4 ,if we care to look1 we can foresee growing knowledge1 growing order1 and presently a deliberate improvement of the blood and character of the race4 ,and what we can see and imagine gives us a measure and gives us faith for what surpasses the imagination4 ,it is possible to believe that all the past is but the beginning of a beginning1 and that all that is and has been is but the twilight of the dawn4 ,it is possible to believe that all that the human mind has ever accomplished is but the dream before the awakening4 ,we cannot see1 there is no need for us to see1 what this world will be like when the day has fully come4 ,we are creatures of the twilight4 ,but it is out of our race and lineage that minds will spring1 that will reach back to us in our littleness to know us better than we know ourselves1 and that will reach forward fearlessly to comprehend this future that defeats our eyes4 ,all this world is heavy with the promise of greater things1 and a day will come1 one day in the unending succession of days1 when beings1 beings who are now latent in our thoughts and hidden in our loins1 shall stand upon this earth as one stands upon a footstool1 and shall laugh and reach out their hands amid the stars4 ,,the ,,art of ,,life ,,series ,,edward ,,howard ,,griggs1 ,editor ,the aim of this series of brief books is to illuminate the never-to-be-finished art of living4 ,there is no thought of solving the problems or giving dogmatic theories of conduct4 ,rather the purpose is to bring together in brief form the thoughts of some wise minds and the insight and appreciation of some deep characters1 trained in the actual world of experience but attaining a vision of life in clear and wide perspective4 ,such books should act as a challenge to the reader's own mind1 bringing him to a clearer recognition of the problems of his life and the laws governing them1 deepening his insight into the wonder and meaning of life and developing an attitude of appreciation that may make possible the wise and earnest facing of the deeps1 dark or beautiful1 in the life of the personal spirit4--,from the ,editor's ,introduction to the ,series1 printed in full in ,the ,use of the ,margin4 ,volumes ready3 ,,where ,,knowledge ,,fails ,by ,earl ,barnes ,,the ,,sixth ,,sense4 ,its cultivation and use4 ,by ,charles ,h4 ,brent ,,the ,,burden ,,of ,,poverty4 ,what to do4 ,by ,charles ,f4 ,dole ,,human ,,equipment4 ,its use and abuse4 ,by ,edward ,howard ,griggs ,,the ,,use ,,of ,,the ,,margin ,by ,edward ,howard ,griggs ,,things ,,worth ,,while ,by ,thomas ,wentworth ,higginson ,,self-,,measurement4 ,a scale of human values with directions for personal application4 ,by ,william ,de,witt ,hyde ,,the ,,super ,,race4 ,an ,american problem4 ,by ,scott ,nearing ,,product ,,and ,,climax ,by ,simon ,nelson ,patten ,,latter ,,day ,,sinners ,,and ,,saints ,by ,edward ,alsworth ,ross ,each #ej cents net2 by mail1 #ee cents ,to be had of all booksellers or the publisher ,b4 ,w4 ,,huebsch #bbe ,fifth ,avenue ,new ,york 99 99 99 99 99 99 ,transcriber's note3 ,this text has been preserved as in the original1 including archaic and inconsistent spelling1 punctuation and grammar1 except that obvious printer's errors have been corrected4