,libraries47 ,,the ,,paper ,,moneys ,,of ,,europe ,,their ,,moral ,,and ,,economic ,,significance ,by ,,francis ,w4 ,,hirst ,,boston ,,and ,,new ,,york ,,houghton ,,mifflin ,,company ,the ,riverside ,press ,cambridge #aibb ,,copyright1 #aibb1 ,,by ,,the ,,regents ,,of ,,the ,,university ,,of ,,california ,,all ,,rights ,,reserved ,the ,riverside ,press ,,cambridge ,,massachusetts ,,printed ,,in ,,the ,u4,s4,a4 ,,barbara ,,weinstock ,,lectures ,,on ,,the ,,morals ,,of ,,trade ,this series will contain essays by representative scholars and men of affairs dealing with the various phases of the moral law in its bearing on business life under the new economic order1 first delivered at the ,university of ,california on the ,weinstock foundation4 ,,the ,,paper ,,moneys ,,of ,,europe ,,their ,,moral ,,and ,,economic ,,significance ,no more severe reflection could be passed upon the moral and political capacity of the human species than this3 ,five thousand years after the invention of writing1 three thousand after the invention of money1 and 7nearly7 five hundred since the invention of printing1 governments all over the world are employing the third invention for the purpose of debasing the second2 thereby robbing millions of innocent individuals of their property on a scale so extensive that previous public confiscations of private property through the adulteration of money--in ancient ,rome1 in ,ireland under ,james the ,second1 in ,prussia during the ,seven ,years' ,war1 in the ,american colonies and the ,united ,states1 in ,portugal1 in ,greece1 in various republics of ,central and ,south ,america1 even the assignats of the ,french ,revolution--seem pigmy frauds in comparison with the present vast inundation of counterfeit paper money4 ,in these times1 when so much attention is given to what ,i may call the prehistoric history of mankind1 it would ill become me1 a mere adventurer in anthropology1 to discuss the origin of money or to attempt an explanation of the curious fact that the art of coining money was invented and perfected a thousand years before the art of printing4 ,the coins struck by the best cities of ancient ,greece are a model and a reproach to our modern mints2 and being for the most part of good silver1 they fulfilled the two main functions of currency--as a measure of value and a medium of exchange4 ,silver was well adapted for the purposes of currency by its ductility1 durability1 divisibility1 portability1 and value4 ,its value depended on three things4 ,in the first place1 it was scarce2 in the second1 it was much in demand for the arts and manufactures2 and in the third place1 its intrinsic value was increased and stabilized by the needs and demands of the mints4 ,gold had similar qualifications1 but it was too scarce and too precious until the nineteenth century1 in the course of which 7for reasons which ,i need not enter upon here71 most of the great commercial nations adopted a gold standard4 ,copper possessed in a less degree the qualifications of gold and silver1 but it was the first metal to be coined into money in ancient ,rome4 ,the ,roman as or pondo weighed a ,roman pound of good copper1 therefore possessed the two principal attributes of good money1 a definite weight and a definite fineness4 ,it was divided like our troy pound into twelve ounces of good copper4 ,the ,english ,troyes or ,troy pound was first used in the ,english mint in the time of ,henry the ,eighth4 ,edward the ,first's pound sterling was a ,tower pound of silver of a definite fineness4 ,charlemagne's livre was a ,troyes#a pound of silver of definite fineness4 ,the old ,english ,scotch pence or pennies contained originally a real pennyweight of silver1 one twentieth of an ounce and one two hundred and fortieth of a pound4 ,the famous pre-war ,english sovereign1 now demonetized and misrepresented by the depreciated paper pound1 was itself also a weight2 but the twenty shillings and two hundred and forty pence which exchanged for it were token coins depending for their value upon the gold sovereign4 #a ,the ,fair of ,troyes in ,champaign was at that time frequented by all the nations of ,europe1 and the weights and measures of so famous a market were generally known and esteemed4 7,adam ,smith1 ,wealth of ,nations1 ,book ,i1 chap1 ,,iv47 ,from the time of ,charlemagne among the ,french1 and from that of ,william the ,conqueror among the ,english wrote ,adam ,smith in #aggf1 the proportion between the pound1 the shilling and the penny1 seems to have been uniformly the same as at present1 though the value of each has been very different2 for in every country of the world1 ,i believe1 the avarice and injustice of princes and sovereign states1 abusing the confidence of their subjects1 have by degrees diminished the real quantity of metal which had been originally contained in their coins4 ,the ,roman as1 in the latter ages of the republic1 was reduced to the twenty-fourth part of its original value1 and1 instead of weighing a pound1 came to weigh only half an ounce4 ,the ,english pound and penny contain at present about a third only2 the ,scots pound and penny about a thirty-sixth2 and the ,french pound and penny about a sixty-sixth part of their original value4 ,by means of those operations1 the princes and sovereign states which performed them were enabled1 in appearance1 to pay their debts and fulfil their engagements with a smaller quantity of silver than would otherwise have been requisite4 ,it was indeed in appearance only2 for their creditors were really defrauded of a part of what was due to them4 ,all other debtors in the state were allowed the same privilege1 and might pay with the same nominal sum of the new and debased coin whatever they had borrowed in the old4 ,such operations1 therefore1 have always proved favourable to the debtor1 and ruinous to the creditor1 and have sometimes produced a greater and more universal revolution in the fortunes of private persons1 than could have been occasioned by a very great public calamity4#b #b ,wealth of ,nations1 ,book ,i1 chap4 ,,iv4 ,john ,stuart ,mill follows his master in exposing and denouncing what he calls this least covert of all forms of knavery which consists in calling a shilling a pound4 ,but the opinions of ,mill1 the saint of rationalism1 deserve and demand citation as they bring us directly to our subject4 ,he writes3 ,when gold and silver had become virtually a medium of exchange1 by becoming the things for which people generally sold1 and with which they generally bought1 whatever they had to sell or buy2 the contrivance of coining obviously suggested itself4 ,by this process the metal was divided into convenient portions1 of any degree of smallness1 and bearing a recognised proportion to one another2 and the trouble was saved of weighing and assaying at every change of possessors1 an inconvenience which on the occasion of small purchases would soon have become insupportable4 ,governments found it their interest to take the operation into their own hands1 and to interdict all coining by private persons2 indeed1 their guarantee was often the only one which would have been relied on1 a reliance however which very often it ill deserved2 profligate governments having until a very modern period seldom scrupled1 for the sake of robbing their creditors1 to confer on all other debtors a licence to rob theirs1 by the shallow and impudent artifice of lowering the standard2 that least covert of all modes of knavery1 which consists in calling a shilling a pound1 that a debt of a hundred pounds may be cancelled by the payment of a hundred shillings4 ,it would have been as simple a plan1 and would have answered just as well1 to have enacted that a hundred should always be interpreted to mean five1 which would have effected the same reduction in all pecuniary contracts1 and would not have been at all more shameless4 ,such strokes of policy have not wholly ceased to be recommended1 but they have ceased to be practised1 except occasionally through the medium of paper money1 in which case the character of the transaction1 from the greater obscurity of the subject is a little less barefaced4#c #c ,mill1 ,political ,economy1 ,book ,,iii1 chap4 ,,vii4 ,a few illustrations from the past may help us to a critical contemplation of the present monetary conditions on the continent of ,europe1 which constitute fraud and robbery on the most wholesale scale ever practised by governments 7with the style and title of democracies67 upon the miserable victims1 called citizens1 and supposed to be endowed with the blessings of self-determination4 ,those who believe that war1 if not a divine institution1 is at least an inevitable feature of human society may plead in extenuation of this species of fraud that it is usually the last desperate resource of a government which has pledged all its taxes and credit for war or armaments4 ,i remember reading in the ,roman historian ,sallust of a financial crisis which was ended by debts contracted in silver being paid off in copper--argentum re solutum est4 ,a few years before ,adam ,smith wrote his chapter on money1 ,frederick the ,great1 during the ,seven ,years' ,war1 resorted to the ,jew1 ,ephraim1 who coined tin silver3 ,outside noble1 inside slim1 ,outside ,frederick1 inside ,ephraim4 ,but ,frederick1 wiser and more honest than our ,european belligerents1 made it his first care after the peace to restore an honest silver coinage4 ,a lively example from ,english1 or rather ,irish1 history is supplied by ,macaulay and belongs to the year #afhi4 ,it is one of the incidents in ,james the ,second's brief and luckless government of ,ireland3 ,it is remarkable that while the ,king ,james ,,ii was losing the confidence and good will of the ,irish ,commons by faintly defending against them1 in one quarter1 the institution of property1 he was himself1 in another quarter1 attacking that institution with a violence1 if possible more reckless than theirs4 ,he soon found that no money came into his ,exchequer4 ,the cause was sufficiently obvious4 ,trade was at an end4 ,floating capital had been withdrawn in great masses from the island4 ,of the fixed capital much had been destroyed1 and the rest was lying idle4 ,thousands of those ,protestants who were the most industrious and intelligent part of the population had emigrated to ,england4 ,thousands had taken refuge in the places which still held out for ,william and ,mary4 ,of the ,roman ,catholic peasantry1 who were in the vigor of life1 the majority had enlisted in the army or had joined gangs of plunderers4 ,the poverty of the treasury was the necessary effect of the poverty of the country3 public prosperity could be restored only by the restoration of private prosperity2 and private prosperity could be restored only by years of peace and security4 ,james was absurd enough to imagine that there was a more speedy and efficacious remedy4 ,he could1 he conceived1 at once extricate himself from his financial difficulties by the simple process of calling a farthing a shilling4 ,the right of coining was undoubtedly a flower of the prerogative2 and1 in his view1 the right of coining included the right of debasing the coin4 ,pots1 pans1 knockers of doors1 pieces of ordnance which had long been past use1 were carried to the mint4 ,in a short time lumps of base metal1 nominally worth near a million sterling1 intrinsically worth about a sixtieth part of that sum1 were in circulation4 ,a royal edict declared these pieces to be legal tender in all cases whatsoever4 ,a mortgage for a thousand pounds was cleared off by a bag of counters made out of old kettles4 ,the creditors who complained to the ,court of ,chancery were told by ,fitton to take their money and be gone4 ,but of all classes1 the tradesmen of ,dublin1 who were generally ,protestants1 were the greatest losers4 ,at first1 of course1 they raised their demands2 but the magistrates of the city took on themselves to meet this heretical inclination by putting forth a tariff regulating prices4 ,any man who belonged to the caste now dominant might walk into a shop1 lay on the counter a bit of brass worth threepence1 and carry off goods to the value of half a guinea4 ,legal remedies were out of the question4 ,indeed the sufferers thought themselves happy if1 by the sacrifice of their stock in trade1 they could redeem their limbs and their lives4 ,there was not a baker's shop in the city round which twenty or thirty soldiers were not constantly prowling4 ,some persons who refused the base money were arrested by troopers and carried before the ,provost ,marshal1 who cursed them1 swore at them1 locked them up in dark cells1 and1 by threatening to hang them at their own doors1 soon overcame their resistance4 ,of all the plagues of that time none made a deeper or a more lasting impression on the minds of the ,protestants of ,dublin than the plague of brass money4 ,to the recollection of the confusion and misery which had been produced by ,james' coin must be in part ascribed the strenuous opposition which1 thirty-five years later1 large classes firmly attached to the ,house of ,hanover1 offered to the government of ,george the ,first in the affair of ,woods' ,patent4#d #d ,macaulay1 ,history of ,england1 ,i1 chap4 ,,xii4 ,the ,affair of ,woods' ,patent is celebrated in ,swift's ,drapier letters4 ,but paper money offers far more extensive facilities to knavery than a metallic currency4 ,in his ,essays on the ,monetary ,history of the ,united ,states1#e ,mr4 ,charles ,j4 ,bullock has described in sufficient detail the carnival of fraud and corruption which attended the paper money coined or rather printed by most of the ,american colonies in the century preceding the ,american ,revolution4 ,thus1 about the middle of the eighteenth century1 the paper money of ,massachusetts fell to an eighth of its original value4 ,people were driven to barter1 and one writer observed that the morals of the people depreciate with the currency4 ,parties were divided into debtors and creditors1 and a ,new ,england writer in #agdi noted3 ,the ,debtor side has had the ascendant ever since anno #agda to the almost utter ruin of the country4#f ,to this writer belongs the credit of discerning1 at a time when even ,benjamin ,franklin was in error1 that the repeated large emissions of ,paper ,money were responsible for its depreciation4 #e ,macmillan1 #aijj4 #f ,douglass4 ,not worth a ,continental is an expression which brings us to the next chapter in ,american experience of inconvertible paper currencies4 ,the so-called ,continental money was the means by which the ,continental ,congress and the individual colonies--too timid to tax--endeavored to finance the ,revolutionary ,war4 ,by #agha1 a paper dollar was worth less than two cents in specie1 and soon afterward it became practically worthless4#g ,robbery was legalized2 rogues flourished2 and their frauds were encouraged and protected by a government whose policy enabled debtors to pay their debts in valueless money4 ,we hear of creditors running away from their debtors and being paid off without mercy4 ,stories were told of creditors in ,rhode ,island leaping out of back windows to escape the attentions of their debtors4#h ,in short1 the law became an engine of oppression and destroyed the fortunes of thousands who had put their confidence in it4 ,in the words of ,breck1 a friendly critic1 444 the old debts were paid when the paper money was more than seventy to one 444 widows1 orphans and others were paid for money lent in specie with depreciated paper4 #g ,bullock1 ,monetary ,history of the ,united ,states1 chap4 ,v4 #h ,ibid41 chap4 ,v4 ,in #aghj ,congress actually adopted a plan to redeem its paper issues at one fortieth of their pretended or nominal value4 ,the astonishing thing is that all this knavery was devised1 or winked at1 not only by low class politicians but by statesmen of renown4 ,the maxim salus populi suprema lex was relied upon not for the first or last time as a sufficient excuse for a crime far more pernicious than that of a private forger4 ,but we have not yet realized1 in our minds or in our penal codes1 that public vices ought to be punished at least as vigorously as private crimes4 ,that1 even as a desperate last resort for financing war1 a flood of paper money defeats its own object was conclusively proved a few years later during the ,french ,revolution4 ,the ,french assignats have taken their place in history as the classical example of paper money made worthless by over-issue4 ,after their final collapse in #agif1 ,french finance reverted perforce to a metallic basis4 ,so ,mr4 ,hawtrey1 a ,british ,treasury official1 who has given us recently a lucid and sufficiently detailed account of this extraordinary incident--extraordinary but no longer singular1 for the same course with the same results has been pursued during and since the war of #aiad-aiah by ,russia and ,poland1 and in a greater or less degree by most of the ,european belligerents4 ,the issue of ,french assignats began in #aghi because the assembly would not vote adequate taxation1 and ,necker1 the minister of finance1 was unable to borrow enough to cover the deficit4 ,in the two years from #aghi to #agia1 the public revenue was #dgj millions1 and the public expenditures1 #agai millions1 of livres4 ,the deficit was covered by assignats1 or paper livres1 bearing interest1 in denominations varying from #ajjj to #e livres4 ,thus the assignats may be regarded as a floating debt currency4 ,in ,november1 #agia1 the assignats were worth #eb per cent of their face value4 ,in ,june1 #agib1 after the declaration of war on ,austria1 they rose to #eg4 ,after the victory of ,valmy1 in ,september1 they rose to #gb and remained there till ,december4 ,in ,january1 #agic1 the king was guillotined1 and war was declared on ,england4 ,by ,august1 after violent fluctuations1 the assignat had fallen to #ae per cent of its face value4 ,thereafter the laws enforcing the acceptance of assignats were strengthened4 ,it became an offence to sell coin1 or to differentiate between coin and assignats in any transaction1 or to refuse payment in assignats1 or to negotiate assignats at a discount4 ,by a decree of the #eth of ,september the death penalty itself was imposed4 ,here was a forced currency indeed4#i #i ,r4 ,g4 ,hawtrey1 ,currency and ,credit4 ,longmans ,green ,co41 ,london1 #aiai4 ,for a few months an artificial improvement was effected in the value of the assignat by these ferocious measures2 but in #agie1 after the ,terror1 the system and the paper money collapsed4 ,the gold and silver money1 which had been hoarded1 returned to circulation4 ,in ,june1 #agie1 the quotation of the assignat oscillated violently4 ,on one day a louis of #bd livres would buy #dej paper livres1 on another1 #ajjj4aj ,paper notes which fluctuated so violently were useless as money4 ,they could not serve either as a medium of exchange or as a measure of value4 ,country people expressed their contempt for the assignats by calling them l'argent de ,paris4 ,a new currency of mandats was tried1 into which assignats were made convertible4 ,it was a complete failure4 ,the assignats were wound up in #agif1 and in ,february1 #agig1 there was a general demonetisation of paper money4#aa ,the holders got practically nothing4 ,france returned to hard cash1 as ,mexico has done recently4 ,in #aiah1 when ,mr4 ,hawtrey wrote1 he was able to describe the decline and full of the assignats as an 'almost unique' instance of the currency of a great nation fading away into nothing4 ,the ,russian paper rouble has performed the same feat since #aiah4 ,so has the ,polish mark4 ,and now 7,december1 #aiba7 the ,german paper mark is also fading into nothingness4#ab ,in ,austria and in most of the new states of ,europe1 the inconvertible paper legal tender currency has lost almost the whole of its value1 in comparison with the pre-war coin which it pretends to represent4 #aj ,hawtrey1 op4 cit41 chap4 ,,xv4 #aa ,a turn which even a ,polish ,chancellor of the ,exchequer might envy4 #ab ,in the second week of ,november the mark fell to #acjj to the paper pound1 recovering a day or two later 7,wednesday1 ,november #i7 to #ihj4 ,the real difference between the present monetary conditions and the ,american continentals1 or the ,french assignats1 is a difference not of kind1 but of degree and extent4 ,the causes and the consequences1 the motives of those who work the mint1 the ruin and demoralization of the victims1 the effects upon public and private debts and credit are the same4 ,but a whole continent populated by four hundred millions of people is concerned4 ,the commercial and moral fabric of ,european civilization is tottering4 ,three years have passed since the war ended2 but the currencies and exchanges of ,europe are in a much worse condition than when peace was being negotiated4 ,at the end of ,june1 #aiba1 ,i walked from my office in the ,strand down to ,messrs4 ,hands ,co41 who deal in foreign money at ,charing ,cross4 ,on the way ,i passed the shop of a tailor1 who had placarded on his shop window the announcement that he would give a hundred thousand roubles to every customer who bought a suit of clothes from him4 ,he added that at the pre-war rate of exchange the one hundred thousand roubles would be worth ten thousand pounds4 ,he did not add that they were at that time worth only two shillings4#ac ,on arriving at my destination1 ,i asked to see specimens of the most debased currencies and eventually laid out ten shillings1#ad or1 to be exact1 #is_/#aj;d4 ,here is the bill3 ,ten ,german marks cost me one shilling ,a hundred ,austrian crowns cost me one and sixpence ,a hundred ,polish marks cost me sixpence ,twenty-five ,russian 7,czar7#ae roubles 7#aiji7 cost me sixpence ,two ,italian lire cost me eightpence ,two ,greek drachmas cost me eightpence ,two ,roumanian lei cost me sixpence ,five ,yugoslav dinars#af cost me one shilling ,ten ,czechoslovakian crowns cost me one shilling ,five ,bulgarian levas cost me sixpence ,five ,finnish marks cost me one shilling ,five ,esthonian marks cost me one shilling ,five ,latvian roubles cost me sixpence #ac ,a month or two later they were not worth a shilling4 ,the ,russian ,soviet ,government was offering two hundred thousand roubles for one pre-war silver rouble6 #ad ,two dollars4 #ae ,twenty-five ,soviet roubles would have been dear at a farthing4 #af ,on this note is stamped #bj ,kruna to indicate that five dinars exchanged for twenty ,austrian crowns4 ,to show that my friend1 the exchange dealer1 made a decent profit out of this retail transaction1 ,i quote some of his selling rates for the day on which he based his charges3 ,rates of ,exchange ,june #bi1 #aiba ,austrian paper crowns #bdjj-bfjj for #a ,finnish marks #bbj-bdj for #a ,german marks #bfe-bge for #a ,polish marks #fjjj 7selling rate7 for #a ,greek drachmas #fb-fe for #a ,italian lire #gf-gg for #a ,roumanian lei #bcj-bej for #a ,the last ,i heard from ,vienna was that they had been varying from ten thousand to fifteen thousand to the paper pound6 ,the difference in the rates depended1 of course1 upon whether the customer was buying or selling the foreign money4 ,if he was buying ,austrian notes1 he would get twenty-four hundred paper crowns for a pound4 ,if he was selling them1 he would receive a pound in exchange for twenty-six hundred paper crowns4 ,all these paper notes are called after1 and profess to represent1 silver coins1 which were themselves before the war1 tokens1 and passed current at more than their intrinsic value because of their relation to gold4 ,thus the pre-war parity of marks was about twenty to the gold pound2 of ,austrian crowns1 about twenty-four2 of francs1 lire1 etc41 about twenty-five4 ,on the day of my purchase1 therefore1 the exchange value of the ,german mark was less than one thirteenth1 of the ,austrian crown less than one one hundredth1 and of the ,polish mark1 one two hundredth1 of its pre-war status4 ,but this underestimates the depreciation2 for the ,british pound is no longer a gold sovereign1 and even gold has been depreciated4#ag ,the paper pound in ,june1 #aiba1 was1 ,i think1 about the equivalent of twelve pre-war shillings in purchasing power4 ,the gold dollar1 which would only buy a little more than four shillings before the war1 would buy five at the beginning of ,december1 #aiba4 #ag ,to-day1 ,november #cj1 #aiba1 the paper pound is worth about four fifths of a gold pound4 ,the purchasing power of gold--say1 the gold dollar--is perhaps about two thirds of what it was before the war4 ,although an inconvertible paper currency has no intrinsic value1 it can 7in accordance with the quantity theory of money7 be maintained at a fairly stable ratio to gold or commodities by an honest government if the total issue is fixed1 or kept between reasonable maximum and minimum limits4 ,the rise of prices since the war1 in each country where reliable statistics are available1 has been in proportion to the expansion of the paper currency1 allowance being made for the scarcity of commodities4 ,of course a decline in purchasing power follows an expansion of circulation4 ,the stability of the ,british paper pound since a limit was imposed illustrates the correctness of the quantity theory of money4 ,its increase in purchasing power 7like that of the gold dollar7 during the first half of #aiba is1 of course1 due to the fact that the supply of utilities had overtaken the demand4 ,at first sight it seems difficult to understand how any government1 however bad1 can deliberately issue flood upon flood of inconvertible paper money1 seeing that its printing operations are ruinous to both public and private credit4 ,to obtain the same amount of revenue1 each new issue1 each new dose1 has to be much larger than the preceding4 ,in the course of twelve months1 for example1 the exchange value of the ,polish mark was divided by ten1 that is1 at the end of the period1 ten times as much paper money had to be printed as at the beginning1 to get the same revenue4 ,yet the ,polish ,government continued upon its course with the approval and support of the ,polish ,diet4 ,the following quotation is from the ,warsaw correspondent of the ,london ,economist1 who wrote on ,july #bh1 #aiba3 ,the effects of the last collapse of the exchanges are beginning to make themselves felt1 and the ,diet is already preparing fresh ground for new currency inflation4 ,by its last vote the limit on the note circulation has been increased to #aah milliards1 and on the advances of the ,polish ,national ,bank to the ,government to #aej milliards4 ,the depreciation of the ,polish mark in ,june was followed by a rise of prices1 and this led immediately to a strike movement in almost all industries4 ,in the ,lodz district #dj1jjj workmen have gone on strike1 demanding a wage increase of #abj per cent6 ,the manufacturers declare that they cannot raise wages by more than #bj per cent2 that even under present conditions the ,polish textile industry is in a most difficult position on the foreign markets1 especially in ,roumania1 the ,baltic ,states1 etc4 ,posnania was menaced by an agrarian strike1 but a settlement has been reached4 ,the strike of the municipal workers in ,warsaw was short-lived4 ,everywhere1 however1 wages have been increased by more than #ej per cent4 ,this naturally will entail a new wave of rising prices1 the ,government will be obliged to double the salaries of its officials1 and the printing press will work again under a higher pressure4 ,this is the vicious circle round which the country has been travelling for three years4 ,ex uno disce omnes4 ,the monetary policy of the ,polish ,government is merely a flagrant example of the recent monetary history of all the states of ,europe northeast1 southeast1 east1 of the ,rhine and of the ,alps4 ,there is only one real remedy1 the restablishment of complete peace1 disarmament1 the abolition of conscription1 the drastic reduction of bloated bureaucracies1 and a wholesale lowering of tariffs1 which will allow the miserable and half-starved populations to renew the arts of peace and the exchange of their agricultural products and manufactures4 ,,appendix ,,the ,,brussels ,,conference#ah ,if all countries were included1 a general and proportionate reduction of the military and naval establishments to one half of their present cost would set free a fund of probably at least #c1jjj1jjj1jjj to #d1jjj1jjj1jjj annually for the purchase of food and useful commodities1 for the stabilization and partial restoration of debased paper currencies1 for the payment of debt1 the removal of public deficits1 the revival of credit1 and the reduction of taxes4 ,thus the road to recovery lies plain before us4 ,will it be taken by the statesmen to whose hands the peoples have intrusted their lives and fortunes8 #ah ,taken by permission from an article by the author in the ,saturday ,evening ,post of ,november #ab1 #aiba4 ,,deficits ,,the ,,rule ,in order to show that this view is in conformity with the conclusions of experts1 and even of officials delegated for the purpose of examining world finance by the governments themselves1 ,i turn to the conclusions unanimously arrived at by the ,brussels conference a year ago1 after eighty-six financial experts from thirty-nine countries had presented the accounts and balance sheets of their respective governments4 ,in a general review of the situation they point out that the total external debt of the ,european belligerents1 converted into dollars at par1 amounts to about #aee milliard dollars1 compared with about #ag milliard dollars in #aiac4 ,they say that the government expenditures of the ,european belligerents amount to between #bj and #dj per cent of the total incomes of the peoples4 ,they say emphatically that the restoration of real peace1 with disarmament1 is the first condition for the world's recovery4 ,four commissions were appointed4 ,the first dealt with public finance1 and its resolutions were adopted unanimously by the conference4 ,the following extract from its resolutions deserves attention3 ,thirty-nine nations have in turn placed before the ,international ,financial ,conference a statement of their financial position4 ,the examination of these statements brings out the extreme gravity of the general situation of public finance throughout the world1 and particularly in ,europe4 ,their import may be summed up in the statement that three out of every four of the countries represented at this conference and eleven out of twelve of the ,european countries anticipate a budget deficit in the present year4 ,public opinion is largely responsible for this situation4 ,the close connection between these budget deficits and the cost of living1 which is causing such suffering and unrest throughout the world1 is far from being grasped4 ,nearly every government is being pressed to incur fresh expenditure2 largely on palliatives which aggravate the very evils against which they are directed4 ,the first step is to bring public opinion in every country to realize the essential facts of the situation and particularly the need for restablishing public finances on a sound basis as a preliminary to the execution of those social reforms which the world demands4 ,public attention should be especially drawn to the fact that the reduction of prices and the restoration of prosperity is dependent on the increase of production1 and that the continual excess of government expenditure over revenue represented by budget deficits is one of the most serious obstacles to such increase of production1 as it must sooner or later involve the following consequences3 7a7 ,a further inflation of credit and currency4 7b7 ,a further depreciation in the purchasing power of the domestic currency1 and a still greater instability of the foreign exchanges4 7c7 ,a further rise in prices and in the cost of living4 ,the country which accepts the policy of budget deficits is treading the slippery path which leads to general ruin2 to escape from that path no sacrifice is too great4 ,it is therefore imperative that every government should1 as the first social and financial reform1 on which all others depend3 7a7 ,restrict its ordinary recurrent expenditure1 including the service of the debt1 to such an amount as can be covered by its ordinary revenue4 7b7 ,rigidly reduce all expenditure on armaments in so far as such reduction is compatible with the preservation of national security4 7c7 ,abandon all unproductive extraordinary expenditure4 7d7 ,restrict even productive extraordinary expenditure to the lowest possible amount4 ,the ,supreme ,council of the ,allied ,powers in its pronouncement on the eighth of ,march declared that armies should everywhere be reduced to a peace footing2 that armaments should be limited to the lowest possible figure compatible with national security and that the ,league of ,nations should be invited to consider1 as soon as possible1 proposals to this end4 ,the statements presented to the conference show that1 on an average1 some #bj per cent of the national expenditure is still being devoted to the maintenance of armaments and the preparations for war4 ,the conference desires to affirm with the utmost emphasis that the world cannot afford this expenditure4 ,only by a frank policy of mutual coperation can the nations hope to regain their old prosperity1 and in order to secure that result1 the whole resources of each country must be devoted to strictly productive purposes4 ,the conference accordingly recommends most earnestly to the ,council of the ,league of ,nations the desirability of conferring at once with the several governments concerned1 with a view to securing a general and agreed reduction of the crushing burdens which on their existing scale armaments still impose on the impoverished peoples of the world1 sapping their resource and imperiling their recovery from the ravages of war4 ,the conference hopes that the ,assembly of the ,league1 which is about to meet1 will take energetic action to this end4 ,the above recommendations were ignored by the ,league of ,nations and by practically all the governments concerned4 ,consequently the debts and deficits of most ,european countries are larger at the present time than they were a year ago1 and most of the paper currencies have depreciated--some very heavily--during the last twelve months4 ,,the ,,dangers ,,of ,,inflation ,i turn next to the resolutions proposed by the second commission which had to examine problems of currency and foreign exchange4 ,from its resolutions1 which also were adopted unanimously by the conference1 ,i extract the following3 ,the currencies of all belligerent and of many other countries1 though in greatly varying degrees1 have since the beginning of the war been expanded artificially1 regardless of the usual restraints upon such expansion--to which we refer later--and without any corresponding increase in the real wealth upon which their purchasing power was based2 indeed in most cases in spite of a serious reduction in such wealth4 ,it should be clearly understood that this artificial and unrestrained expansion1 or inflation1 as it is called1 of the currency or of the titles to immediate purchasing power does not and cannot add to the total real purchasing power in existence1 so that its effect must be to reduce the purchasing power of each unit of the currency4 ,it is in fact a form of debasing the currency4 ,the effect of it has been to intensify1 in terms of the inflated currencies1 the general rise in prices1 so that a greater amount of such currency is needed to procure the accustomed supply of goods and services4 ,where this additional currency was procured by further inflation--that is1 by printing more paper money or creating fresh credit--there arose what has been called a vicious spiral of constantly rising prices and wages and constantly increasing inflation1 with the resulting disorganization of all business1 dislocation of the exchanges1 a progressive increase in the cost of living1 and consequent labor unrest4 ,it is of the utmost importance that the growth of inflation should be stopped2 and this1 although no doubt very difficult to do immediately in some countries1 could quickly be accomplished by abstaining from increasing the currency--in its broadest sense1 as defined above--and by increasing the real wealth upon which such currency is based4 ,the cessation of increase in the currency should not be achieved merely by restricting the issue of legal tender4 ,such a step1 if unaccompanied by other measures1 would be apt to aggravate the situation by causing a monetary crisis4 ,it is necessary to attack the causes which lead to the necessity for the additional currency4 ,the chief cause in most countries is that the governments1 finding themselves unable to meet their expenditures out of revenue1 have been tempted to resort to the artificial creation of fresh purchasing power1 either by the direct issue of additional legal-tender money or more frequently by obtaining--especially from the banks of issue1 which in some cases are unable and in others unwilling to refuse them--credits which must themselves be satisfied in legal-tender money4 ,we say1 therefore1 that governments must limit their expenditure to their revenue4 ,here again we have excellent doctrines and good practical advice from these financial experts to the governments which appointed them4 ,but the doctrines have remained unapplied1 and the advice has been honored in the breach instead of in the observance4 ,,wise ,,counsel ,,ignored ,i pass next to the resolutions proposed by the commission on international trade and adopted unanimously by the conference1 from which the first two paragraphs will be quoted3 ,the ,international ,financial ,conference affirms that the first condition for the resumption of international trade is the restoration of real peace1 the conclusion of the wars which are still being waged and the assured maintenance of peace for the future4 ,the continuance of the atmosphere of war and of preparations for war is fatal to the development of that mutual trust which is essential to the resumption of normal trading relations4 ,the security of internal conditions is scarcely less important1 as foreign trade cannot prosper in a country whose internal conditions do not inspire confidence4 ,the conference trusts that the ,league of ,nations will lose no opportunity to secure the full restoration and continued maintenance of peace4 ,the ,international ,financial ,conference affirms that the improvement of the financial position largely depends on the general restoration as soon as possible of good will between the various nations2 and in particular it indorses the declaration of the ,supreme ,council of the eighth ,march last that the ,states which have been created or enlarged as a result of the war should at once restablish full and friendly coperation and arrange for the unrestricted interchange of commodities in order that the essential unity of ,european economic life may not be impaired by the erection of artificial economic barriers4 ,here again there is a full recognition of the fact that peace is necessary to the renewal of prosperity1 and that the atmosphere of war preparations is fatal to the growth of trade4 ,but neither the ,league of ,nations nor the ,supreme ,council1 so far as ,i am aware1 has made any effective response to these appeals4 ,fourthly and lastly1 ,i come to the commission on international credits4 ,this commission passed a number of resolutions1 all of which were adopted unanimously by the conference2 but it will suffice to cite the first two3 ,the conference recognizes in the first place that the difficulties which at present lie in the way of international credit operations arise almost exclusively out of the disturbance caused by the war1 and that the normal working of financial markets cannot be completely restablished unless peaceful relations are restored between all peoples and the outstanding financial questions resulting from the war are made the subject of a definite settlement which is put into execution4 ,the conference is1 moreover1 of opinion that the revival of credit requires as primary conditions the restoration of order in public finance1 the cessation of inflation1 the purging of currencies1 and the freedom of commercial transactions4 ,the resolutions of the commission on international credits are therefore based on the resolutions of the other commissions4 ,my argument then is fully endorsed by the experts at ,brussels4 ,all the facts and figures set forth in the voluminous records of that remarkable conference indicate the urgency of peace and disarmament4 ,a year has passed4 ,the ,brussels recommendations have been ignored1 and conditions in ,europe as regards its currencies1 debts1 trade and credit have deteriorated4 ,the ,naval limitations proposed by ,mr4 ,hughes at ,washington1 even if they are ratified1 will give practically no relief to ,europe4