,successful ,/ock ,speculation ,by ,j4 ,j4 ,,butl] ,writt5 ,april #aibb ,publi%$ ,decemb] #aibb ,publi%$ by ,,national ,,bureau ,,( ,,f9ancial ,,in=mation #cie ,broadway1 ,new ,york ,city ,?is ,book ,is ,n ,copyright$ ,we believe ! pr9ciples exp\nd$ 9 ?is book are ( imm5se value to ev]yone :o buys speculative securities1 & we d n object to anyone reproduc+ any "p ( x1 :e!r or n we are giv5 cr$it = x4 ,national ,bureau ( ,f9ancial ,in=mation ,transcrib]'s ,note3 ,m9or typographical errors h be5 correct$ )\t note4 ,v>iant spell+s h be5 reta9$4 ,bold text has be5 indicat$ z bold4 ,,cont5ts ,,"p #a ,,introductory ,,*apt]s ,*apt] ,page ,i4 ,,! ,,purpose ,,( ,,?is ,,book #g ,,ii4 ,,:at ,,is ,,speculation #i ,,iii4 ,,"s ,,t]ms ,,expla9$ #ac ,,iv4 ,a ,,correct ,,basis ,,= ,,speculat+ #ag ,,"p #b ,,:at ,,& ,,:5 ,,to ,,buy ,,& ,,sell ,v4 ,,:at ,,/ocks ,,to ,,buy #bc ,,vi4 ,,:at ,,/ocks ,,n ,,to ,,buy #be ,,vii4 ,,:5 ,,to ,,buy ,,/ocks #bi ,,viii4 ,,:5 ,,n ,,to ,,buy ,,/ocks #cc ,,ix4 ,,:5 ,,to ,,sell ,,/ocks #ce ,,"p #c ,,influ5ces ,,affect+ ,,/ock ,,prices ,x4 ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,/ock ,,prices #da ,,xi4 ,,major ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,prices #dc ,,xii4 ,,! ,,money ,,m>ket ,,& ,,/ock ,,prices #dg ,,xiii4 ,,m9or ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,prices #di ,,xiv4 ,,te*nical ,,conditions #ea ,,xv4 ,,manipulations #ec ,,"p #d ,,topics ,,( ,,int]e/ ,,to ,,speculators ,,xvi4 ,,m>g9al ,,trad+ #fa ,,xvii4 ,,%ort ,,sell+ #fe ,,xviii4 ,,bucket ,,%ops #fi ,,xix4 ,,*oos+ ,a ,,brok] #ga ,,xx4 ,,puts ,,& ,,calls #gc ,,xxi4 ,,/op ,,loss ,,ord]s #ge ,,"p #e ,,conclud+ ,,*apt]s ,,xxii4 ,,! ,,desire ,,to ,,speculate #ha ,,xxiii4 ,,two ,,k9ds ,,( ,,trad]s #hg ,,xxiv4 ,,possibilities ,,( ,,pr(it #ia ,,xxv4 ,,m>ket ,,in=mation #ie ,,xxvi4 ,,successful ,,speculation #ajc ,,"p ,,"o ,,introductory ,,*apt]s ,,*apt] ,i4 ,,! ,,purpose ,,( ,,?is ,,book ,?is book is writt5 = ! purpose ( giv+ our cli5ts "s ideas ( ! fundam5tal pr9ciples t guide u :5 we select /ocks = !m to buy1 b ^! pr9ciples are valuable to e p]son :o trades 9 li/$ /ocks or 9 any o!r k9d ( speculative /ocks4 ,fir/ ( all1 we want y to get a cle> conception ( ! mean+ ( ! ^w speculation1 :i* is expla9$ 9 ! next *apt]4 ,our purpose is to protect y aga9/ losses z well z to enable y to make pr(its1 & x is v important t y und]/& h[ to provide = safety 9 y\r speculat+4 ,x is a well kn[n fact t !re are trem5d\s losses 9 /ock speculation1 b we claim t almo/ all ( ^! losses w\ld be avoid$ if all speculators 7 guid$ by ! pr9ciples exp\nd$ 9 ?is book4 ,:at & ,:5 are two v important words 9 /ock speculation1 & we _c urge ^u y too /rongly to /udy c>efully ,*apt]s ,v4 to ,,ix4 ,*apt]s ,x4 to ,,xv4 tell y mu* ab\t ! influ5ces t affect ! prices ( /ocks1 a k ( :i* %\ld also be a guide to y 9 mak+ y\r selections4 ,p]haps ! mo/ important *apt] 9 ! entire book is ,,xxv41 on ,m>ket ,in=mation4 ,a c>eful read+ ( ?is *apt] %\ld conv9ce y t mu* ( ! prevail+ in=mation ab\t ! /ock m>ket is mislead+4 ,t fact alone acc\nts = _m ( ! losses 9 /ock speculation4 ,x has be5 our aim to /ate all facts briefly4 ,! entire book is n long1 & x w n require mu* ( y\r "t to read x ?r\gh c>efully4 ,we are sure y w get _m ideas f x t w help y4 ,,*apt] ,,ii4 ,,:at ,,is ,,speculation8 ,to speculate is to !orize ab\t some?+ t is unc]ta94 ,we c speculate ab\t any?+ t is unc]ta91 b we use ! ^w speculation 9 ?is book ) p>ticul> ref]5ce to ! buy+ & sell+ ( /ocks & bonds = ! purpose ( mak+ a pr(it4 ,:5 p buy /ocks & bonds = ! income !y get f !m & ! am\nt ( t income is fix$1 !y are said to inve/ & n to speculate4 ,9 ne>ly all inve/m5ts !re is also an elem5t ( speculation1 because ! m>ket price ( inve/m5ts is subject to *ange4 ,inve/m5t also conveys ! idea ( hold+ = "s "t :atev] y h pur*as$1 :ile speculation conveys ! idea ( sell+ = a quick pr(it r ?an hold+ = income4 ,to ! m9ds ( mo/ p1 ! ^w speculation conveys ! ?\ght ( risk1 & _m p ?9k x means great risk4 ,! diction>y gives = "o ( ! mean+s ( speculation1 a risky inve/m5t = l>ge pr(it1 b speculation ne$ n necess>ily be risky at all4 ,! au?or ( ?is book once us$ ! expression1 /ock speculat+ ) safety1 & he 0 sev]ely criticiz$ by a c]ta9 f9ancial magaz9e4 ,evid5tly ! editor ( t magaz9e ?\ght t speculat+ & safety 7 contradictory t]ms1 b ! expression is p]fectly correct4 ,/ock speculat+ ) safety is possible4 ,( c\rse1 we all "k t ! ^w safety is seldom us$ 9 an absolute s5se4 ,we frequ5tly read su* expressions z3 ,! elevators 9 mod]n (fice build+s are run ) safety4 ,x is possible to cross ! ocean ) safety4 ,y c travel f ,new ,york to ,san ,francisco 9 a railroad tra9 ) safety4 ,& yet accid5ts d occur & p d lose _! lives 9 elevators1 /eam%ips1 & railroad tra9s4 ,because s]i\s accid5ts are comp>atively r>e1 we use ! ^w safety4 ,9 l mann] x is possible to pur*ase /ocks sometimes :5 x is almo/ c]ta9 t ! pur*as] w make a pr(it1 & t is /ock speculat+ ) safety4 ,:5 ,lib]ty ,bonds 7 sell+ 9 ! #hj's1 _m p b\ght !m = speculation4 ,!y 7 n tak+ any risk1 except ! slight risk t ! m>ket price might g /ill l[] be=e x w\ld g high]1 & t did n involve any risk = ^? :o knew !y c\ld hold !m4 ,! fact t ! m>ket prices ( ,lib]ty ,bonds w\ld advance 0 bas$ ^u an economic law t nev] fails4 ,t law is t :5 int]e/ rates g up1 ! m>ket prices ( bonds g d[n1 & :5 int]e/ rates g d[n1 ! m>ket prices ( bonds g up4 ,:5 ,lib]ty ,bonds 7 sell+ 9 ! #hj's1 int]e/ rates 7 s v high1 x 0 c]ta9 t !y w\ld come d[n4 ,t ! m>ket prices ( ,lib]ty ,bonds w\ld g up 0 also c]ta91 b nobody c\ld tell h[ mu* !y w\ld g up 9 a giv5 "t4 ,x 0 t elem5t ( unc]ta9ty t made !m speculative1 & n t !re 0 any d\bt ab\t ! fact t ! m>ket prices ( !m w\ld g up4 ,buy+ ,lib]ty ,bonds at t "t 0 speculat+ ) safety4 ,if y read ?is book ) und]/&+1 y w "k mu* ab\t speculat+ ) safety4 ,,*apt] ,,iii4 ,,"s ,,t]ms ,,expla9$ ,!re are c]ta9 t]ms us$ 9 connection ) /ock speculation t are v famili> to ^? :o come 9 contact ) /ock brok]s1 & yet are n always famili> to ^? :o d bus9ess by mail4 ,und\bt$ly ! majority ( our read]s are famili> ) ^! t]ms1 b we give ^! def9itions = ! b5efit ( ! few :o are n famili> ) !m4 ,trad]3 ,a p]son :o buys & sells /ocks is usually ref]r$ to z a trad]4 ,! ^w probably orig9at$ :5 x 0 cu/om>y to trade "o /ock = ano!r & lat] 0 us$ to ref] to a p]son :o sold "o /ock & b\ght ano!r4 ,he 0 a trad]2 b ! p]son :o buys /ocks = a pr(it & sells !m & takes 8 pr(it :5 he gets an opportunity1 may n be a trad] 9 ! /rict s5se ( ! ^w4 ,h[ev]1 = conv5i5ce1 we use ! ^w trad] 9 ?is book to ref] to any "o :o buys or sells /ocks4 ,speculator3 ,?is ^w ref]s to a p]son :o buys /ocks = pr(it1 ) ! expectation ( sell+ at a high] price1 )\t ref]5ce to ! e>n+s ( ! /ock4 ,he may sell fir/1 ) ! expectation ( buy+ at a l[] price1 z expla9$ 9 ,*apt] ,,xvii4 on ,%ort ,sell+4 ,9 _m cases :]e we use ! ^w trad]1 x w\ld be m correct to use ! ^w speculator4 ,inve/or3 ,an inve/or diff]s f a speculator 9 ! fact t he buys /ocks or bonds ) ! expectation ( hold+ !m = "s "t = ! income to be d]iv$ f !m1 )\t ref]5ce to _! speculative possibilities4 ,we believe t inve/ors always %\ld give "s consid]ation to ! speculative possibilities ( _! pur*ases4 ,x frequ5tly is possible to get speculative pr(its )\t increase ( risk or loss ( income4 ,bull3 ,"o :o believes t ! m>ket price ( /ocks w advance is call$ a bull4 ,( c\rse1 x is possible to be a bull 9 "o /ock & a be> 9 ano!r4 ,! ^w is us$ v frequ5tly ) ref]5ce to ! m>ket1 a bull m>ket mean+ a ris+ m>ket4 ,be>3 ,! opposite ( a bull is a be>4 ,x ref]s to a p]son :o believes t ! m>ket value ( /ocks w decl9e1 & a be> m>ket is a decl9+ m>ket4 ,lambs3 ,lambs ref]s to t "p ( ! public t kn[s s little ab\t /ock speculat+ t !y lose all _! money soon] or lat]4 ,! bulls & be>s get !m go+ & com+4 ,if ! lambs w\ld read ?is book c>efully1 !y w\ld discov] reasons :y !y lose _! money4 ,long & ,%ort3 ,^? :o own /ocks are said to be long1 & ^? :o owe /ocks are said to be %ort4 ,%ort sell+ is expla9$ 9 ,*apt] ,,xvii4 ,odd ,lot3 ,/ocks on ex*anges are sold 9 c]ta9 lots4 ,on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 #ajj %>es is a lot2 & on ! ,consolidat$ ,/ock ,ex*ange1 #aj %>es is a lot4 ,less ?an ^! am\nts is an odd lot4 ,:5 y sell an odd lot y usually get #a_/h less ?an ! m>ket price2 & :5 y buy an odd lot1 y usually pay #a_/h m ?an ! m>ket price2 t is1 #a_/h ( a doll> on ea* %>e :]e prices are quot$ 9 doll>s4 ,po9t3 ,x is a common expression to say t a /ock w5t up or d[n a po9t1 :i* means a doll> 9 a /ock t is quot$ 9 doll>s1 b a c5t 9 a /ock t is quot$ 9 c5ts1 z _m ( ! /ocks are on ! ,new ,york ,curb4 ,9 cotton quotations1 a po9t is #a_/ajj "p ( a c5t4 ,= in/ance1 if cotton is quot$ at #ah4ab1 x means #ah c5ts & #ab_/ajj ( a c5t p] p\nd1 & if x w5t up #cj po9ts ! quotation w\ld be #ah4db4 ,reaction3 ,e p]son :o has trad$ 9 li/$ /ocks probably is famili> ) ?is ^w4 ,x means to act 9 an opposite direction1 b x is us$ especially to ref] to a decl9e 9 ! price ( a /ock t has be5 go+ up4 ,rally3 ,rally is ! opposite ( ! s5se 9 :i* reaction usually is us$4 ,:5 a /ock is go+ d[n & x turns & goes up1 x is call$ a rally4 ,commitm5t3 ,?is t]m is us$ ref]r+ to a pur*ase ( /ock4 ,x is m commonly us$ by inve/m5t bank]s :5 !y contract to buy an issue1 b ! t]m sometimes is us$ by trad]s4 ,float+ ,supply3 ,! /ock ( a company t is 9 ! h&s ( t "p ( ! public :o is likely to sell1 is ref]r$ to z float+ supply4 ,,*apt] ,,iv4 ,a ,,correct ,,basis ,,= ,,speculat+ ,we ma9ta9 t !re is only "o basis ^u :i* successful speculation c be c>ri$ on cont9ually2 t is1 nev] to buy a security unless x is sell+ at a price bel[ t :i* is w>rant$ by assets1 e>n+ p[]1 & prospective future e>n+ p[]4 ,!re are _m influ5ces t affect ! movem5ts ( /ock prices1 :i* are ref]r$ to 9 subsequ5t *apt]s4 ,all ( ^! %\ld be /udi$ & und]/ood1 b !y %\ld be us$ z second>y factors 9 relation to ! value ( ! /ock 9 :i* y are trad+4 ,if ! m>ket price ( any /ock is f> bel[ its intr9sic value & !re is no reason :y ! future %\ld br+ ab\t a *ange 9 ?is value t w decrease x1 !n y may be c]ta9 t important influ5ces are work+ aga9/ ! m>ket price ( ! /ock = ! "t be+4 ,9 ! c\rse ( "t ! m>ket price w g up t[>ds ! real value4 ,?is matt] w be m fully expla9$ 9 subsequ5t *apt]s4 ,y always %\ld keep 9 m9d ! fact t :5 y buy a /ock at a high] price ?an its intr9sic value1 y are tak+ a risk4 ,! /ock may h great future possibilities1 b x is risky to buy /ocks :5 pres5t assets & e>n+s d n w>rant _! m>ket prices1 no matt] h[ attractive prospective future e>n+s may appe>4 ,h[ev]1 ! possibilities ( pr(it sometimes are s great t "o is ju/ifi$ 9 tak+ ?is risk4 ,x is our belief t ! majority ( trad]s buy /ocks because !y are active 9 ! m>ket & somebody said !y 7 a good buy1 ev5 ?\gh ! real values may n be ne>ly z mu* z ! m>ket prices4 ,z an example ( ?is k9d ( trad+1 we want to call y\r att5tion to a news item t appe>$ 9 a ,new ,york pap]4 ,x /at$ t on ,april #a/1 "s brok]s 9 ,detroit1 z an ,april ,fool joke1 gave out a tip to buy ,a4 ,f4 ,p41 mean+ ,april ,fool ,pref]r$1 b :5 ask$ :at x meant1 repli$ ,am]ican ,fire ,protection4 ,( c\rse1 !re 0 no su* /ock1 b !re 0 active trad+ 9 x until ! joke 0 discov]$4 ,evid5tly x is n necess>y to li/ a /ock on ! ,detroit ,/ock ,ex*ange 9 ord] to trade 9 x4 ,?is /ory may or may n be true1 b we believe ! /atem5t t p trade 9 /ocks !y d n "k any?+ ab\t is true4 ,y %\ld be c>eful n to buy a /ock m]ely because somebody says x is a good ?+ to buy1 unless ! p]son mak+ ! /atem5t is 9 ! bus9ess ( giv+ in=mation on /ocks1 because x may be only a rumor ) no sub/antial basis4 ,( c\rse1 if _m p act on ! rumor1 !re w be active trad+ 9 ! /ock1 & x is frequ5tly = t purpose t su* rumors are />t$4 ,,"p ,,two ,,:at & ,,:5 ,,to ,,buy & ,,sell ,,*apt] ,v4 ,,:at ,,/ocks ,,to ,,buy ,9 decid+ :at /ocks to buy1 x is well to consid] fir/ ! classes ( /ocks1 & !n :at p>ticul> /ocks y %\ld buy 9 ! classes y select4 ,we w\ld fir/ ( all divide all /ocks into two classes1 ^? li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange & ^? n li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange4 ,z a rule1 x is bett] to buy /ocks li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 al?\gh !re are frequ5t exceptions to ?is rule4 ,!n1 ! /ocks li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange may be divid$ into classes1 su* z railroad /ocks1 public utility /ocks1 motor /ocks1 tire /ocks1 oil /ocks1 copp] /ocks1 gold /ocks1 & s =?4 ,at c]ta9 times c]ta9 /ocks are 9 a mu* m favorable condition ?an at o!r times4 ,9 #aiai1 :5 ! indu/rial /ocks 7 sell+ at a v high price1 ! public utility /ocks & gold /ocks 7 sell+ l[1 because x 0 impossible to increase incomes 9 proportion to ! increase 9 op]at+ co/s4 ,b s9ce ! beg9n+ ( #aiba1 ! condition ( ^! two classes ( /ocks has be5 improv+ & ! m>ket has reflect$ t improvem5t4 ,at ! "t ( ?is writ+ 7e>ly 9 ,april1 #aibb7 we are recomm5d+ ! /ocks ( only a v few manufactur+ companies2 b we are recomm5d+ a numb] 7n all7 ( ! railroad & public utility /ocks1 & a few specially select$ /ocks among ! o!r classes4 ,9 e in/ance1 :5 y make a selection1 y %\ld consid] ! company's assets1 pres5t e>n+s1 & prospective future e>n+s1 & !n take into consid]ation all ! influ5ces t affect price movem5ts1 z expla9$ 9 subsequ5t *apt]s4 ,,*apt] ,,vi4 ,,:at ,,/ocks ,,n ,,to ,,buy ,a great deal m c be said ab\t /ocks y %\ld n buy ?an ab\t /ocks y %\ld buy1 because ! li/ is v mu* l>g]4 ,/ocks n li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 z a rule1 %\ld n be b\ght by a c>eful speculator1 b z /at$ 9 ! previ\s *apt]1 !re are exceptions to t rule4 ,billions ( doll>s h be5 lo/ 9 ! pa/ by buy+ /ocks t h become wor?less4 ,a few ye>s ago a li/ ( defunct securities 0 compil$1 & x took two l>ge volumes 9 :i* to enum]ate !m4 ,new ones h be5 add$ to !m e ye>4 ,!re=e1 x is v important t y %\ld give c>eful ?\ght to ! subject ( :at /ocks n to buy4 ,ne>ly all promotion /ocks 7/ocks 9 new companies7 are a failure4 ,an extremely small p]c5tage ( !m are v successful1 & ! successful ones are ref]r$ to 9 ! adv]tis+ ( ! new ones2 b1 on ! basis ( av]age1 ! *ances are y w lose y\r money entirely 9 promotion /ocks4 ,we believe t mo/ ( ! promotion companies are />t$ 9 p]fectly good fai?1 al?\gh "s ( !m are sw9dles f ! beg9n+2 b no matt] h[ hone/ & well mean+ ! organiz]s are1 ! *ances ( success are aga9/ !m4 ,!re=e1 we say t promotion /ocks %\ld n be b\ght by ! ord9>y man :o is look+ = a good speculation1 because 8 *ances ( mak+ a l>ge pr(it ) a m9imum risk are v mu* bett] :5 he buys /ocks li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange & uses good judgm5t 9 do+ s4 ,among ! li/$ /ocks !re are _m y %\ld n buy4 ,fir/ ( all1 elim9ate !m by classes4 ,d n buy ! classes ( /ocks t are sell+ too high n[4 ,y may say t !re are "s exceptions 9 all classes4 ,t may or may n be s1 b 9 any ev5t1 y h a bett] *ance ( pr(it+ by conf9+ mo/ ( y\r pur*ases to ! classes ( /ocks t are 9 ! mo/ favorable position4 ,z a rule1 :5 /ocks are fir/ li/$1 !y sell mu* high] ?an !y d a %ort "t aft]w>ds4 ,( c\rse1 t is n always true4 ,x is m likely to be true :5 a /ock is li/$ dur+ a v active m>ket1 :5 prices are m easily influ5c$ by publicity4 ,! high price ( x is usually due to ! fact t publicity is giv5 to x1 & z soon z ! effect ( ?is publicity we>s (f1 ! m>ket price ( ! /ock decl9es4 ,x is a good rule nev] to buy /ocks t brok]s urge y to buy4 ,y\r own common s5se ought to tell y t a /ock t is adv]tis$ ext5sively by brok]s is likely to sell up 9 price :ile ! adv]tis+ is go+ on & w drop 9 price j z soon z ! adv]tis+ /ops4 ,_m p notice t & !y ?9k !y c pr(it by buy+ :5 ! adv]tis+ />ts & sell out :5 !y get a good pr(it1 b ! majority ( !m lose money4 ,! /ock may n respond to ! adv]tis+1 or if x does g up1 !y may wait too long be=e sell+4 ,^? :o d sell & make #bjj or #cjj pr(it 9 a v %ort "t are almo/ sure to lose x all 9 an ef=t to repeat ! transaction4 ,_m ( ^? :o read ?is "k x is true f _! own exp]i5ce4 ,y %\ld leave su* /ocks /rictly alone4 ,y may w9 once or twice1 b y are sure to lose if y keep x up4 ,z a rule /ocks ( ?is k9d h v little value & ! brok]s :o boo/ !m make _! own money f ! losses ( _! fooli% foll[]s4 ,,*apt] ,,vii4 ,,:5 ,,to ,,buy ,,/ocks ,/ocks %\ld be b\ght :5 !y are *eap4 ,by be+ *eap1 we mean t ! m>ket price is mu* less ?an ! intr9sic value4 ,9 ,*apt]s ,x4 to ,,xv4 we talk ab\t influ5ces t affect ! price movem5ts ( /ocks4 ,by /udy+ ^! c>efully y %\ld be able to decide :5 /ocks g5]ally are *eap4 ,( c\rse1 n all /ocks are *eap at ! same "t1 b ! majority ( li/$ /ocks d g up & d[n at ! same "t1 z a rule4 ,at ! "t ( ?is writ+ 79 ! e>ly "p ( ,april1 #aibb7 !re are a great _m /ocks li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange t are sell+ at prices mu* less ?an _! intr9sic values1 b !re are "s /ocks t %\ld n be b\ght n[1 nor at any o!r "t4 ,!re are "s /ocks li/$ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange n[ t p]haps h no intr9sic value & nev] w h any4 ,nev]!less we consid] t "r n[#a is "o ( ! times = buy+ /ocks4 ,!re are unusual b>ga9s to be _h1 al?\gh ke5 discrim9ation is necess>y 9 ord] to be able to pick out ! b>ga9s4 ,z a usual ?+1 x is a good "t to buy /ocks :5 ne>ly ev]ybody wants to sell !m4 ,:5 g5]al bus9ess conditions are bad1 trad+ on ! /ock ex*anges v light1 & ev]ybody y meet appe>s to be pessimi/ic1 !n we advise y to look = b>ga9s 9 /ocks4 ,! la/ six mon?s ( #aiba 0 an unusually good "t = buy+ /ocks4 ,x is well kn[n t ! l>ge int]e/s accumulate /ocks at su* times4 ,!y buy only :5 ! /ocks are (f]$ at a l[ price & try n to buy en\gh at any "o "t to give an appe>ance ( activity 9 ! m>ket1 b !y buy cont9ually :5 ! m>ket is v dull4 ,x seems to be *>act]i/ic ( human nature to ?9k t bus9ess conditions are go+ to cont9ue j z !y are4 ,:5 bus9ess is bad1 ne>ly ev]ybody ?9ks bus9ess w be bad = a long "t1 & :5 bus9ess is good1 ne>ly ev]ybody ?9ks bus9ess w be good almo/ indef9itely4 ,z a matt] ( fact1 conditions are always *ang+4 ,x nev] is possible = ei!r extremely good times nor = extremely bad times to cont9ue indef9itely4 ,y c buy /ocks *eap] :5 !re is v little dem& = !m1 & y %\ld arrange y\r affairs s z to be prep>$ to buy at su* times4 ,,footnotes3 #a ,9 our advisory ,lett] ( ,april #be1 #aibb1 we advis$ our cli5ts to refra9 f m>g9 buy+ = a :ile1 because ! m>ket 0 advanc+ too rapidly4 ,%ortly aft] t !re 0 a decid$ reaction 9 ! m>ket4 ,,*apt] ,,viii4 ,,:5 ,,n ,,to ,,buy ,,/ocks ,!re are times :5 /ocks %\ld n be b\ght1 & t is :5 ne>ly all /ocks h advanc$ beyond _! real values4 ,x is d\btful if !re ev] is a "t :5 all /ocks h advanc$ beyond _! real values1 b :5 ! great majority ( /ocks h s advanc$1 !re is likely to be a g5]al decl9e 9 all /ock prices4 ,! /ocks t are n sell+ too high w decl9e "s 9 sympa?y ) ! o!rs4 ,!re=e1 !re are times :5 we advise our cli5ts n to buy any /ocks4 ,"s organizations giv+ advice 9 reg>d to ! buy+ ( /ocks1 advise _! cli5ts to refra9 entirely f buy+ = p]iods ( a ye> or long]1 b we ?9k x is seldom advisable to refra9 entirely f buy+ = any great l5g? ( "t4 ,!re usually are "s good opportunities if y wat* c>efully = !m4 ,x is our bus9ess to wat* = ^! opportunities & tell our cli5ts ab\t !m4 ,!re are also times :5 ! te*nical condition ( ! m>ket is su* t we advise our cli5ts to refra9 f buy+ = a :ile4 ,see ,*apt] ,,xiv4 ,,*apt] ,,ix4 ,,:5 ,,to ,,sell ,,/ocks ,y %\ld sell /ocks :5 ! m>ket price is too high4 ,t is a g5]al rule1 b x is necess>y = y to /udy all ! influ5ces affect+ /ock prices to be able to decide m accurately :5 y %\ld sell y\r /ocks4 ,we give y1 9 future *apt]s1 mu* m in=mation on judg+ ! m>kets4 ,ano!r g5]al rule1 is to sell /ocks :5 ne>ly ev]ybody is buy+ !m4 ,x is a well kn[n fact t ! great majority ( p buy /ocks ne> ! top & sell ne> ! bottom4 ,naturally :5 ev]ybody is optimi/ic1 /ocks w sell up high1 b soon] or lat] !y w come d[n aga91 & :5 ev]y?+ looks v promis+ is a good "t to sell4 ,x is bett] to lose a little ( ! pr(it t y might h made by hold+ on long] ?an n to be on ! safe side4 ,! man :o tries to sell at ! top ne>ly always loses1 because /ocks seldom sell z high z x is pr$ict$ !y w1 or1 9 o!r words1 ! pr$iction ( high] prices is advanc$ m rapidly ?an ! prices4 ,we rememb] read+ 9 #aiaf1 :5 ,u4 ,s4 ,/eel sold up ar\nd #acf a %>e1 a pr$iction t x 0 go+ to sell up to #ajjj a %>e4 ,probably _m p :o read su* news items consid] !m s]i\sly4 ,( c\rse1 t 0 a mo/ exagg]at$ pr$iction1 b dur+ ! extreme activity ( a bull m>ket1 x seems t ne>ly ev]ybody is talk+ 9 exagg]at$ t]ms ( optimism4 ,t is :y mo/ trad]s seldom ev] take _! pr(its 9 a bull m>ket4 ,!y wait until /ock prices />t to come d[n1 & !n !y are likely to ?9k !re w be rallies1 & keep on wait+ until !y lose all _! pr(its4 ,on ! o!r h&1 "s p make ! mi/ake ( sell+ too soon4 ,j because y\r pur*ase %[s a lib]al pr(it is no reason :y y %\ld sell4 ,! /ock may h be5 v *eap :5 y b\ght x4 ,9 #aibj1 ,peoples ,gas sold bel[ #cj4 ,^? :o b\ght x !n 7 able to d\ble _! money by ! close ( #aiba1 & _m sold out & took _! pr(its4 ,( c\rse1 if !y inve/$ ! proce$s 9 o!r /ocks t 7 j />t+ upw>d1 !y may n h lo/ any?+1 b !re 0 no p>ticul> reason = sell+ ,peoples ,gas at t "t4 ,! public utilities g5]ally 7 com+ into _! own1 & ne>ly all ( !m 7 reg>d$ by economic /ud5ts z hav+ unusual opportunities = pr(it4 ,!n aga91 x is n always a mi/ake to sell a /ock 9 ord] to get funds to put into some?+ else t seems m promis+1 ev5 ?\gh ! /ock y sell is likely to g mu* high]4 ,x is v important t y %\ld try to sell y\r /ocks at ! "r "t4 ,t is ! ma9 ?+ to keep 9 m9d & x is bett] to sell too soon ?an too late4 ,don't be too gre$y & hold on = a big pr(it4 ,read ,*apt] ,,xxiv4 on ! ,possibilities ( ,pr(it4 ,,"p ,,?ree ,,influ5ces ,,affect+ ,,/ock ,,prices ,,*apt] ,x4 ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,/ock ,,prices ,x is due to ! fact t /ock prices con/antly move up or d[n t speculation is possible4 ,sometimes c]ta9 /ocks rema9 almo/ at a /&/ill = a long p]iod ( "t1 b at lea/ a "p ( ! /ocks li/$ on ! ,ex*anges move ei!r up or d[n4 ,if "o always c\ld tell j :at way !y 7 go+ to move1 x w\ld be comp>atively easy to make a =tune )9 a %ort "t4 ,9 ! la/ tw5ty ye>s1 a great deal ( "t & money has be5 sp5t by /ati/ical organizations 9 *eck+ up /ati/ics = ! purpose ( asc]ta9+ a def9ite basis ^u :i* to pr$ict future movem5ts 9 /ock prices4 ,sev]al ( ^! organizations use v diff]5t /ati/ics ^u :i* to base _! conclusions1 & yet _! conclusions are v simil>4 ,!y h prov$ beyond any "q ( d\bt t "s ( ^! movem5ts are cle>ly indicat$ by laws t nev] fail4 ,we d n attempt 9 ?is book to expla9 ! fundam5tal /ati/ics ^u :i* ! pr$ictions ( bus9ess cycles are bas$1 b 9 ! next five *apt]s we expla9 "s ( ! influ5ces t affect ! movem5ts 9 /ock prices4 ,read ^! *apt]s v c>efully1 = y\r success 9 /ock speculation w dep5d v l>gely ^u y\r correct pr$iction ( ^! movem5ts4 ,,*apt] ,,xi4 ,,major ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,prices ,/ock prices move up & d[n 9 cycles4 ,^! are ! major movem5ts 9 prices1 b !re may be _m m9or movem5ts up & d[n )9 ! major movem5ts4 ,^! /ock price movem5ts ne>ly always prec$e a *ange 9 bus9ess conditions2 t is1 an upw>d movem5t 9 /ock prices is an indication t bus9ess conditions are go+ to improve1 & a d[nw>d movem5t 9 /ock prices is an indication t bus9ess conditions are go+ to get worse4 ,at ! pres5t writ+1 we are 9 a p]iod ( improvem5t4 ,/ock prices began to g up 9 ,augu/1 #aiba4 ,! upw>d movem5t has be5 sl[1 b gradual4 ,9 a p]iod ( sev5 mon?s1 =ty repres5tative /ocks %[ an upw>d movem5t ( ab\t #bj po9ts1 al?\gh bus9ess has n %[n mu* improvem5t4 ,a /eady upw>d movem5t 9 /ock prices is a sure sign t bus9ess conditions are beg9n+ to improve1 ev5 ?\gh t improvem5t is n noticeable4 ,^! major /ock movem5ts are n an exact duplicate ( any previ\s ones1 & x is impossible to tell h[ long !y w la/ or j :at c\rse !y w take4 ,c]ta9 influ5ces c\ld *ange a p]iod ( improvem5t into a p]iod ( prosp]ity v quickly4 ,a p]iod ( prosp]ity is not$ = high prices1 high wages1 & increas+ production 9 all l9es4 ,ev]ybody is optimi/ic4 ,mo/ p sp5d _! money freely1 & t makes times bett]4 ,z prices g up & bus9ess increases1 m money is requir$ 9 bus9ess & int]e/ rates g up4 ,z a consequ5ce1 :5 int]e/ rates g up1 bond prices g d[n4 ,dur+ ?is p]iod1 speculative /ocks are sell+ at _! highe/ prices2 & "u ! influ5ce ( ?is movem5t1 _m /ocks t h no actual value sell up at high prices4 ,( c\rse1 wise speculators sell all _! /ocks dur+ ?is p]iod4 ,foll[+ a p]iod ( prosp]ity comes a p]iod ( decl9e4 ,! fir/ sign ( x usually is a sev]e break 9 ! /ock m>ket4 ,at t "t g5]al bus9ess is runn+ along at top spe$ & !re is no sign ( a let-up1 b ?is break 9 ! /ock m>ket %\ld be a w>n+4 ,mo/ p ?9k ! break is m]ely a tempor>y reaction--!y may ref] to x z a ,,heal?y reaction--& !y />t buy+ /ocks aga91 & put ! m>ket up1 b x does n g up z high z x 0 be=e ! break occurr$4 ,:5 /ock prices d n rally beyond ! prices at :i* !y 7 be=e ! break occurr$1 x is a sign t ! turn+ po9t has be5 rea*$ & t ! be> m>ket has />t$1 al?\gh ! majority ( p d n realize ?is until a long "t aft]w>ds4 ,next comes a p]iod ( depression1 :5 we h l[ prices1 l[ wages1 h>d times1 tight money1 & _m comm]cial failures4 ,_m p :o lo/ all _! money dur+ ! speculation p]iod1 become ?rifty & economize dur+ ! p]iod ( depression1 & />t 9 to save aga94 ,ne>ly ev]ybody is pessimi/ic dur+ ?is p]iod4 ,trad+ on ! ,/ock ,ex*ange is irregul> & z a rule v light4 ,?is is ! "t to get /ock b>ga9s1 b ! g5]al public z a rule doesn't take advantage ( x4 ,p are sc>$ & ?9k prices w g /ill l[]4 ,! big int]e/s accumulate /ocks dur+ ?is p]iod1 & sell !m dur+ ! p]iod ( prosp]ity4 ,,*apt] ,,xii4 ,,! ,,money ,,m>ket ,,& ,,/ock ,,prices ,p]haps no o!r "o ?+ influ5ces ! movem5t ( /ock prices s mu*1 9 a l>ge way1 z money conditions4 ,x is impossible to h a big bull m>ket )\t pl5ty ( money4 ,dur+ a bull m>ket ne>ly all /ocks are b\ght on m>g91 :i* is expla9$ 9 ,*apt] ,,xvi4 ,?is makes x necess>y = brok]s to borr[ l>ge sums ( money4 ,:5 money is tight1 x is impossible to get en\gh to c>ry on a l>ge movem5t 9 /ocks4 ,y w see1 !re=e1 t ! ,f$]al ,res]ve ,bank has x 9 its p[] to regulate ! /ock m>ket to "s ext5t4 ,9 #aiai speculation 0 c>ri$ v mu* fur!r ?an x %\ld h be51 b und\bt$ly x w\ld h be5 mu* worse _h ! ,f$]al ,res]ve ,bank n rais$ int]e/ rates & urg$ memb] banks to )draw money f ,wall ,/reet4 ,:ile !re 0 consid]able criticism ( t action1 x c]ta9ly 0 a good ?+ = ! entire c\ntry4 ,9 a p]iod ( depression1 ! banks accumulate money1 & !re always is an abundance ( money at ! beg9n+ ( a bull m>ket4 ,dur+ a p]iod ( prosp]ity ! banks' res]ves decrease & _! loans increase4 ,:5 y see ^! res]ves g d[n to a v l[ po9t1 x is usually "t = y to sell y\r /ocks4 ,,*apt] ,,xiii4 ,,m9or ,,movem5ts ,,9 ,,prices ,)9 ! major movem5ts ( /ock prices1 !re always are sev]al m9or movem5ts1 :i* are caus$ by v>i\s influ5ces4 ,"o ( ! important causes is ! te*nical condition ( ! m>ket4 ,ano!r cause might be call$ a psy*ological "o4 ,:5 /ocks are mov+ up /eadily 9 a bull m>ket1 p closely connect$ ) ! m>ket expect a reaction & wat* = x4 ,! newspap]s pr$ict x4 ,consequ5tly1 !re is suffici5t let-up 9 buy+ to all[ ! pressure ( sell+ by ! be>s to br+ x ab\t4 ,h[ev]1 ! desire to buy dur+ reactions is s g5]al1 _m p ru% 9 to buy & ?is buy+1 9 addition to ! cov]+ by ! %orts1 puts ! m>ket up aga92 & if conditions are favorable = a bull m>ket1 prices w g up mu* high] ?an !y 7 be=e4 ,9 l mann]1 we h rallies 9 be> m>kets4 ,( c\rse ! pr(essional be>s sell dur+ ^! rallies1 ) ! expectation ( buy+ lat] at a *eap] price4 ,^! m9or price *anges mean m to ! majority ( trad]s ?an ! major movem5ts4 ,! major movem5ts are s sl[ t p get out ( pati5ce1 & yet ^? :o are guid$ only by ! major movem5ts are op]at+ on a mu* saf] basis4 ,we believe t a great] am\nt ( money c be made1 ) a m9imum risk1 by be+ guid$ pr9cipally by ! major movem5ts1 :ile tak+ advantage ( ! m9or movem5ts 9 a m9or way4 ,h[ev]1 /ocks d n move uni=mly & !re frequ5tly is an opportunity to buy "s p>ticul> /ock at a b>ga9 :5 ne>ly all /ocks are sell+ too high4 ,we try to pick out ^! opportunities = our cli5ts4 ,reports ( e>n+s by v>i\s companies influ5ce /ock prices1 z does also ! pay+ ( extra divid5ds or ! pass+ up ( divid5ds4 ,a peculi> psy*ological influ5ce is notic$ :5 a company decl>es an extra divid5d4 ,! price ( ! /ock usually goes up1 :ile z a matt] ( fact ! intr9sic value ( ! /ock is decreas$ by ! am\nt ( ?is divid5d2 & sometimes x is advisable to sell a /ock %ortly aft] an advance 9 its divid5d rate4 ,,*apt] ,,xiv4 ,,te*nical ,,conditions ,te*nical conditions ref] to ! conditions t usually affect ! supply & dem&1 su* z %ort int]e/s1 float+ supply1 & /op loss ord]s4 ,x is sometimes said t supply & dem& mu/ be equal or else !re c\ld n be any sales1 b t is n s4 ,!re are always "s p :o are will+ to sell at "s price above ! m>ket :o w n sell at ! m>ket2 & :5 ! dem& = /ock is great] ?an ! supply1 x goes up until x is suppli$ by "s ( ^! p :o are hold+ x at a high] price4 ,x works ! same way :5 ! supply is great] ?an ! dem&4 ,!re are always "s p :o w buy at "s price bel[ ! m>ket4 ,!re=e1 :5 ! supply is great] ?an ! dem& prices mu/ g d[n4 ,a /ock may h an intr9sic value ( #ajj a %>e & yet be sell+ at #ej a %>e1 & x c nev] sell high] ?an #ej until all /ock t is (f]$ at t price is b\ght4 ,h[ev]1 y %\ld keep ?is 9 m9d3 if ! real value is #ajj a %>e1 soon] or lat] ! m>ket price w approa* t figure4 ,t is :y we s /rongly urge our cli5ts to buy /ocks t h actual values1 or at lea/ prospective values f> great] ?an _! m>ket prices1 & ei!r to buy !m outright or m>g9 !m v heavily1 & !n hold !m until ! prices d g up4 ,( c\rse1 :5 "o f9ds t a mi/ake has be5 made1 ! soon] "o sells & takes a loss ! bett]4 ,,*apt] ,,xv4 ,,manipulations ,/ock prices are influ5c$ l>gely by manipulation4 ,ye>s ago :5 ! volume ( trad+ on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange 0 small comp>$ ) :at x is today1 x 0 possible to influ5ce ! entire m>ket by manipulation1 b x w\ld be v difficult to d t today4 ,x is only c]ta9 /ocks t are manipulat$2 b if conditions are favorable1 _m o!r /ocks may be influ5c$ by !m4 ,!re are diff]5t k9ds ( manipulation4 ,"o is = ! insid]s ( a company to give out unfavorable news ab\t _! company if !y want ! price ( ! /ock to g d[n1 s t !y c buy x 92 or to give out v favorable news if !y want ! price to g up1 s t !y c sell out4 ,?is me?od is n practic$ n[ to ! ext5t t x 0 ye>s ago4 ,public op9ion is /rongly oppos$ to x1 & we believe bus9ess m5 are acquir+ a high] /&>d ( bus9ess e?ics4 ,me?ods ( ?is k9d are legal b !y are morally repreh5sible4 ,ano!r me?od ( manipulation is ! =m+ ( pools to buy 9 ! /ock ( a company & =ce x up4 ,if ! m>ket price ( a /ock is f> bel[ its real value1 we believe x is ju/ifiable = a pool to =ce x up1 b ! ord9>y pool is m]ely a s*eme to rob ! public4 ,!re are f\r p]iods to ! op]ation ( su* pools4 ,fir/ is ! p]iod ( accumulation4 ,a numb] ( l>ge hold]s ( /ock 9 a c]ta9 company w pool _! /ock1 all agree+ n to sell except f ! pool1 9 :i* all b5efit proportionately4 ,!n !y give out bad news ab\t ! company4 ,t is v easy to d1 because f9ancial writ]s usually accept ! news t is giv5 to !m )\t mu* inve/igation1 especially writ]s on daily pap]s1 because !y h n ! "t to inve/igate4 ,_! copy mu/ be ready 9 a few h\rs aft] !y get ! in=mation4 ,see ,*apt] ,,xxv4 on ,m>ket ,in=mation = full] explanation ( ! reason :y f9ancial news usually is mislead+4 ,! manipulators ( /ock prices c h f9ancial news made to ord]4 ,:5 ! g5]al public reads ?is news & sees ! /ock go+ d[n1 _m ( !m get disc\rag$ & sell4 ,x is j ! "t !y %\ld n sell1 b x is a well kn[n fact t ! majority ( p d 9 ! /ock m>ket j :at !y %\ld n d4 ,! m !y sell ! m ! price goes d[n1 & ! pool op]ators accumulate ! /ock4 ,hav+ secur$ all ! /ock !y want1 !y give out good news & cont9ue to buy ! /ock until x />ts to g up4 ,! public reads ?is favorable news1 & see+ ! /ock g up1 w g into ! m>ket & buy1 :i* puts x up high]4 ,all ! "t f9ancial writ]s are supply+ good news ab\t ! /ock & ! public buys x4 ,aft] !y h sold all ( x1 ! public may /ill be anxi\s = m1 & ! pool op]ators may g %ort ( ! /ock4 ,!n !y w beg9 giv+ out bad news1 s t !y c buy 9 /ock at a l[] price to cov] _! %ort int]e/s4 ,aft] t !y h v little int]e/ 9 ! m>ket4 ,if x is decl9+ too fa/1 !y may support x occasionally by buy+ "s /ock & giv+ out "s favorable news4 ,t w make ! m>ket rally & !y w sell out ! newly acquir$ /ock ne> ! top ( ! rally4 ,manipulations ( ?is k9d appe> to be go+ on ne>ly all ! "t1 & !re does n seem to be any limit to ! numb] ( suck]s :o fall = !m4 ,b !n1 "o c't blame ! public :5 y realize h[ ?or\ghly unreliable is mo/ ( ! m>ket in=mation giv5 to !m4 ,/ill ano!r k9d ( manipulation is "o-man manipulation1 :]e "o man controls companies1 :i* are kn[n z "o-man companies4 ,usually ! directors ( ^! companies are fri5ds or employees ( 81 & 9 _m in/ances he has _! resignations 9 8 possession1 s t !y mu/ d :atev] he wants !m to d4 ,ow+ to ! /rict rules ( ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 x is r difficult = su* manipulations to be c>ri$ on !re4 ,b !re h be5 _m ( !m on ! ,new ,york ,curb4 ,:5 ! ,curb 0 op]at+ on ! /reet & 0 n "u v mu* control1 manipulations ( ?is k9d 7 v frequ5t4 ,z an example1 suppose a man ( ?is k9d has a m9+ company4 ,:5 he wants ! /ock to g up1 he s5ds ! /ockhold]s a great deal ( in=mation ab\t ! "w at ! m9e1 & p]haps s5ds !m a telegram :5 a new ve9 ( ri* ore is f\nd4 ,! /ockhold]s ru% 9 to buy m /ock1 & t puts ! price up4 ,!n he unloads /ock on !m to ! ext5t t !y w buy x4 ,9 a day or two1 ! /ock may drop back to less ?an "o half ( :at x 0 sell+ at4 ,if ?is "o-man manipulator wants to buy any /ock1 he w give out a little unfavorable news1 & he c get /ock at 8 own price4 ,aft] t ! news is good or bad accord+ to :e!r ! manipulator wants to buy or sell1 b z a rule he has an abundance ( /ock t he wants to sell1 & is cont9ually giv+ out good news4 ,a few ye>s ago !re 0 a man op]at+ 9 ,new ,york :o promot$ sev]al companies & manipulat$ !m 9 a l>ge way4 ,he is out ( bus9ess n[1 b ! same ?+ is /ill done 9 a small] way4 ,x is our op9ion t m money is lo/ by ! public 9 manipulat$ /ocks ?an 9 promotion /ocks1 & we read a great deal ab\t ! enorm\s losses 9 !m4 ,promotions t are failures may be p]fectly legitimate & conduct$ 9 ! utmo/ good fai?1 b manipulations are ne>ly always = ! purpose ( sw9dl+ ! public4 ,h[ev]1 ! lure ( !m is s great _m p _c )/& ! temptations ( !m ev5 aft] !y h be5 trimm$ sev]al times4 ,,"p ,,f\r ,,topics ,,( ,,int]e/ ,,to ,,speculators ,,*apt] ,,xvi4 ,,m>g9al ,,trad+ ,mo/ p :o trade 9 /ocks buy on m>g94 ,! ord9>y m9imum m>g9 is ab\t #bj ( ! pur*ase price1 because banks usually l5d ab\t #hj ( ! m>ket value ( /ocks4 ,if y put up #bj ( ! pur*ase price ( y\r /ocks ) y\r brok]1 he has to pay ! o!r #hj1 b he c d t by borr[+ t am\nt f 8 bank1 & putt+ up ! /ock z security4 ,9 ?is way brok]s are able to h&le all ! m>g9 bus9ess t comes to !m1 z long z money c be borr[$4 ,( c\rse1 !re are "s /ocks t are n accept$ by banks z collat]al = loans1 & y %\ld n expect y\r brok] to sell su* /ocks on m>g94 ,9 fact1 if he (f]s to d s1 x looks z ?\gh he 7 runn+ a bucket %op4 ,see ,*apt] ,,xviii4 ,_m p ?9k t buy+ /ocks on m>g9 is gambl+ & t p %\ld n d x = t reason1 b buy+ on m>g9 is done 9 all l9es ( bus9ess1 al?\gh x may n be kn[n "u t "n4 ,if y b\ght /ock outright1 b borr[$ #hj ( ! pur*ase price f y\r bank] to complete y\r paym5t = x & put up ! /ock ) him z security1 y w\ld be buy+ on m>g9 j ! same4 ,9 l mann]1 if y b\ght a home & paid #bj ) money y _h & borr[$ ! o!r #hj ( ! pur*ase price1 y w\ld be buy+ a home on m>g94 ,! pr9cipal diff]5ce is t :5 y buy f a brok] on m>g91 "o ( ! conditions ( 8 contract is t he has ! "r to sell y\r /ock provid$ ! m>ket price drops d[n to ! am\nt t y owe on ! /ock1 :]eas if y borr[ money on a home1 x is usually = a c]ta9 specifi$ "t & ! l5d] _c sell y out until t "t expires4 ,h[ev]1 9 pr9ciple1 !re is v little diff]5ce betwe5 ! two transactions4 ,mo/ m>g9 trad]s d n put up suffici5t m>g94 ,if y put up only ! m9imum m>g91 y\r brok] has ! "r to call on y = m m>g9 if ! price ( ! /ock decl9es at all4 ,unless y are fully prep>$ at all times to put up an additional m>g9 :5 call$ ^u1 y %\ld make small] pur*ases & put up a heavy m>g9 :5 y buy4 ,! am\nt ( m>g9 dep5ds ^u ! transaction1 b we advise f #cj to #ej1 & at times we advise n less ?an #ej m>g9 on any pur*ase4 ,9 fact !re are times :5 we advise n to buy /ocks on m>g9 at all4 ,^? :o wi% to be entirely free f worry %\ld buy /ocks :5 ! prices are v l[1 pay = !m 9 full1 get _! c]tificates1 & put !m away 9 a safe deposit box4 ,h[ev]1 :5 /ocks are l[ ! risk 9 buy+ on a lib]al m>g9 is v small1 & ! possibilities ( pr(it are s mu* great]1 we d n see any objection to tak+ advantage ( ?is me?od ( trad+4 ,,*apt] ,,xvii4 ,,%ort ,,sell+ ,by %ort sell+1 we mean sell+ a /ock t y d n possess1 ) ! int5tion ( buy+ x lat]4 ,%ort sell+ 9 g5]al bus9ess is v common1 & we ?9k no?+ ( x4 ,manufactur]s frequ5tly sell goods t are n yet made1 to be deliv]$ at "s future "t4 ,sell+ /ocks %ort is a simil> transaction1 except t 9 a majority ( cases deliv]y ( ! /ock mu/ be made imm$iately4 ,h[ev]1 y\r brok] c att5d to t by borr[+ ! /ock4 ,z expla9$ 9 ! prec$+ *apt]1 :5 ! m>ket is active mo/ ( ! trad+ is done on m>g94 ,y\r brok] buys a /ock = y1 b z he has to pay = x 9 full1 x is cu/om>y = him to take x to 8 bank & borr[ money on x4 ,a bank usually l5ds ab\t #hj ( ! m>ket value1 b if "s o!r brok] wants to borr[ ?is /ock1 he w l5d ! full value ( x4 ,if t p>ticul> /ock is v sc>ce & h>d to get1 ! l5d] ( ! /ock may get ! use ( ! money )\t any int]e/4 ,!re=e1 !re is an advantage to ! brok] 9 l5d+ /ock1 & = t reason x is ne>ly always possible = a brok] to arrange deliv]y ( /ock = y if y wi% to sell %ort4 ,:5 y in/ruct him lat] on to buy ! /ock = y1 he w d s & deliv] x to ! brok] f :om he borr[$ x1 :o w return ! money he receiv$ = x4 ,:5 y sell /ock %ort & ! price goes up1 y w h to pay a high] price = x4 ,!re=e1 to protect himself aga9/ ! possibility ( los+1 y\r brok] dem&s a paym5t f y j ! same z y pay m>g9 :5 y buy /ock4 ,%ort sell+ is some?+ t we d n recomm5d v mu* to our cli5ts4 ,we ?9k x is n advisable to d any %ort sell+ z long z !re are good opportunities to make money by buy+2 b :5 all b>ga9s disappe>1 z !y d sometimes1 y mu/ ei!r sell %ort or else keep out ( ! m>ket entirely4 ,at su* times1 !re may be _m opportunities to make money by %ort sell+1 & we d n consid] t !re is any reason :y our cli5ts %\ld n take advantage ( !m4 ,( c\rse1 great c>e mu/ be ex]cis$ 9 sell+ /ocks %ort4 ,y might sell a /ock %ort because y "k ! m>ket price is #ajj great] ?an its real value1 b x is possible = manipulators to =ce x up a great deal high]2 & if y are n able to put up suffici5t money ) y\r brok] to protect him1 he w buy at a high price & y w lose ! money y h put up ) him4 ,9 "s in/ances1 /ocks are corn]$ & ! %ort int]e/s are =c$ to buy ! /ocks at prices t repres5t enorm\s losses4 ,x is a common ?+ to read ab\t ! %ort int]e/s 9 c]ta9 /ocks4 ,all /ocks t are sold %ort mu/ be b\ght soon] or lat]1 & :5 t buy+ takes place1 x may affect ! m>ket v mu*4 ,!re=e1 if x is kn[n t !re is a big %ort int]e/ 9 a c]ta9 /ock1 we %\ld expect ! /ock to sell at a high] price2 b sometimes ! %ort int]e/s break ! m>ket & =ce ! price d[n1 especially :5 g5]al conditions are 9 _! favor4 ,,*apt] ,,xviii4 ,,bucket ,,%ops ,!re has be5 s mu* publicity giv5 to bucket %ops1 ne>ly ev]ybody is famili> ) ! t]m4 ,a brok] runs a bucket %op :5 he sells /ock to 8 cli5ts on m>g9 & ei!r nev] buys ! /ock = _! acc\nts1 or else sells x imm$iately aft] buy+ x4 ,! bucket %op simply gets y\r money on ! supposition t y are m likely to be wrong ?an to be "r4 ,( c\rse1 if y take ! bucket %op's advice y surely are likely to be wrong4 ,bucket %ops get _! cli5ts into ! v speculative /ocks1 :]e !re is likely to be a great deal ( fluctuation 9 ! price ( ! /ocks1 :i* gives !m frequ5t opportunities to sell out _! cli5ts4 ,:5 ! m>ket is go+ d[n or :5 !re are _m movem5ts up & d[n 9 ! price ( /ocks1 ! bucket %ops make money rapidly1 b occasionally !re is a long p]iod :5 ! m>ket is work+ aga9/ ! bucket %ops1 & unless !y h a great deal ( money !y mu/ fail4 ,9 ,augu/1 #aiba1 ,/ock ,ex*ange /ocks />t$ to g up4 ,! upw>d movem5t 0 v sl[ b x 0 cont9ual4 ,up to ! "t ( ?is writ+1 !re has n be5 a ?ree-po9t reaction1 except 9 a few /ocks1 9 all ( t "t4 ,)\t a fluctuat+ m>ket1 ! bucket %op has no *ance to clean out its cu/om]s4 ,z a consequ5ce1 ! bucket %ops began to fail 9 ! e>ly "p ( #aibb1 & up to ! pres5t writ+ 7,april1 #aibb7 !re h be5 m ?an fifty ( ^! failures4 ,h[ev]1 x is n likely t all ! bucket %ops w be put out ( bus9ess4 ,! m successful ones are likely to wea!r ! /orm4 ,_m laws h be5 enact$ aga9/ bucket %ops1 & we believe "s way w be f\nd to get rid ( !m at "s future "t2 b we d n expect t to happ5 soon1 & we w>n our read]s n to get into _! h&s1 because if !y d n get y\r money away f y "o way !y are likely to get x "s o!r way4 ,! man :o runs a bucket %op usually has no consci5ce1 & x c]ta9ly is an un=tunate ?+ = anyone to get mix$ up ) su* a man4 ,,*apt] ,,xix4 ,,*oos+ ,a ,,brok] ,x is v important t y *oose a good brok]4 ,no matt] h[ c>eful y are1 x is possible to make a mi/ake4 ,h[ev]1 if y *oose a brok] :o is a memb] ( ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 y h elim9at$ a v l>ge p]c5tage ( y\r *ances ( gett+ a wrong brok]4 ,occasionally a memb] ( ! ,/ock ,ex*ange fails & once 9 a :ile "o is susp5d$ = runn+ a bucket %op or be+ connect$ ) "o1 b ^! in/ances are v r>e comp>$ ) ! numb] ( brok]s :o get into tr\ble :o are n memb]s ( ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange4 ,! rules & regulations ( ! ,/ock ,ex*ange protect y to a great ext5t4 ,:5 y buy /ock on m>g91 y leave y\r money 9 ! h&s ( a brok]1 & y %\ld "k t he is responsible4 ,no matt] :o y\r brok] is1 y %\ld get a report on him4 ,if y are a subscrib] to ,brad/reet's or ,dun's ,ag5cies1 get a report f !m4 ,if y are n a subscrib] to any m]cantile ag5cy1 y p]haps h a fri5d :o c get a report = y1 or y\r bank may get "o = y4 ,banks make a practice ( gett+ reports ( ?is k9d = _! cli5ts4 ,:5 ask$ to d s1 we s5d our cli5ts ! names ( brok]s :o are memb]s ( ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange1 b we pref] n to recomm5d any brok]4 ,( c\rse1 we _c gu>antee t a brok] is all "r4 ,we simply use our be/ judgm5t1 b1 z we said be=e1 y elim9ate a l>ge p]c5tage ( y\r *ances ( go+ wrong :5 y trade ) a brok] :o is a memb] ( ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange4 ,,*apt] ,,xx4 ,,puts ,,& ,,calls ,a put is a negotiable contract giv+ ! hold] ! privilege to sell a specifi$ numb] ( %>es ( a c]ta9 /ock to ! mak] at a fix$ price1 )9 a specifi$ "t4 ,a call is ! exact rev]se4 ,x is a negotiable contract giv+ ! hold] ! privilege to buy a specifi$ numb] ( %>es ( a c]ta9 /ock f ! mak] at a fix$ price1 )9 a specifi$ "t4 ,! price fix$ 9 a put or call is set away f ! m>ket price a c]ta9 numb] ( po9ts1 dep5d+ ^u ! /ock & ! condition ( ! m>ket4 ,:5 ! m>ket is /eady & n fluctuat+1 ! price fix$ is frequ5tly only two po9ts away1 b 9 a m active m>ket x is consid]ably m4 ,= in/ance1 at ! pres5t "t1 ,u4 ,s4 ,/eel is sell+ at ab\t #ie1 & y c buy a call on x at #ig or a put at #ic4 ,t is by pay+ a c]ta9 am\nt1 :i* at pres5t is #acg4ej1 y c h ! privilege ( buy+ #ajj %>es ( ,u4 ,s4 ,/eel at #ig1 )9 ?irty days ( ! date ( ! pur*ase ( y\r call4 ,if ,/eel %\ld g up to #aja y c\ld h y\r brok] buy x at #ig & sell x at ! m>ket1 & y w\ld make a pr(it ( f\r po9ts1 less ! co/ ( y\r call & commissions4 ,z a me?od ( op]at+ 9 ! /ock m>ket1 we d n recomm5d ! buy+ ( puts & calls4 ,pr(essional speculators may be able to use !m to advantage sometimes1 b = ! outsid]1 :o is n 9 close t\* ) ! m>ket1 !re is no?+ ab\t !m to recomm5d4 ,"h is "o po9t3 ! p :o sell puts & calls fix ! t]ms4 ,if ! m>ket is irregul>1 !y w set ! po9t ( buy+ or sell+ f> away f ! m>ket price4 ,^! p are %rewd trad]s & !y make ! t]ms 9 _! own favor4 ,x is g5]ally said t ne>ly all ! buy]s ( puts & calls lose1 & t is our op9ion4 ,!re=e1 we advise y to leave !m alone4 ,,*apt] ,,xxi4 ,,/op ,,loss ,,ord]s ,a /op-loss is an ord] to y\r brok] to sell y out if ! m>ket sells d[n a c]ta9 numb] ( po9ts4 ,_m speculators place /op loss ord]s only two po9ts f ! m>ket price4 ,! idea is t :5 ! m>ket />ts to g d[n x is likely to cont9ue go+ d[n1 & by tak+ a two-po9t loss y may save a mu* great] loss4 ,x also c be appli$ to a %ort sale1 :5 y give y\r brok] in/ructions to buy 9 ! /ock = y if x goes up a c]ta9 numb] ( po9ts4 ,we read s mu* 9 ! f9ancial news ab\t /op-loss ord]s or m]ely /op ord]s1 :i* is ! same ?+1 ! av]age read] is likely to get ! idea t x is some?+ he mu/ use = 8 own protection1 b x is our op9ion t x is some?+ t %\ld be us$ v seldom by ^? :o trade along ! broad l9es recomm5d$ by u4 ,if y\r pur*ases 7 made 9 /ocks t 7 v *eap1 y %\ld cont9ue to hold !m 9 case ( a reaction4 ,if y b\ght !m outright or on a sub/antial m>g91 y are n 9 dang]1 & y %\ld look ^u y\r loss m]ely z a pap] loss4 ,9 ! great majority ( cases1 y w be a great deal bett] (f to hold on to y\r /ocks ?an y w\ld be if y _h a /op-loss ord]4 ,a l>ge numb] ( /op-loss ord]s is a good ?+ = ! %ort int]e/s4 ,let u take ,u4 ,s4 ,/eel aga91 z an example4 ,suppose x is sell+ at #id & x is believ$ t !re are a l>ge numb] ( /op-loss ord]s at #ib4 ,! %ort int]e/s may sell ! /ock heavily & =ce x d[n to #ib4 ,!n ! brok]s ) /op-loss ord]s w\ld beg9 to sell2 t w\ld =ce ! price d[n /ill l[]1 & ! %ort int]e/s c\ld buy 9 to cov] at ?is l[] price4 ,!re=e1 we believe t /op-loss ord]s are a bad ?+ &1 z a rule1 d n recomm5d !m4 ,!re is "o in/ance :]e a /op-loss ord] c be us$ to advantage1 & t is ne> ! top ( a bull m>ket4 ,x is impossible to tell :5 ! m>ket has rea*$ ! top4 ,if y sell out too soon1 y may lose a pr(it ( sev]al po9ts4 ,( c\rse1 x is bett] to d t ?an to take a *ance ( a l>ge loss4 ,9 t case1 y might in/ruct y\r brok] to place a /op-loss ord] at two or m po9ts bel[ ! m>ket1 & keep mov+ x up z ! m>ket price moves up4 ,!n :5 ! reaction does come1 he w sell y out & prev5t y f los+ a l>ge "p ( y\r pr(it4 ,t is ab\t ! only in/ance :]e we recomm5d a /op-loss ord]1 b we d recomm5d x to our cli5ts sometimes1 al?\gh seldom4 ,if ! /ock y own is sell+ at m ?an #ajj we w\ld sugge/ t y make ! /op loss ord] at lea/ ?ree po9ts f ! m>ket1 b = /ocks sell+ bel[ #ajj1 a two-po9t /op-loss ord] might be us$4 ,h[ev]1 ! numb] ( po9ts %\ld be decid$ ^u 9 ea* p>ticul> case4 ,9 ! special in/ructions to our cli5ts1 we tell !m :5 we ?9k !y c use a /op-loss ord] to advantage4 ,,"p ,,five ,,conclud+ ,,*apt]s ,,*apt] ,,xxii4 ,,! ,,desire ,,to ,,speculate ,x is said t ! desire to speculate is v /rong 9 ! ,am]ican p4 ,t is :y our c\ntry has made great] progress ?an any o!r c\ntry 9 ! _w1 because progress is ! result ( speculation4 ,we are n ref]r+ m]ely to /ock speculations1 b to ! ^w 9 its broade/ s5se4 ,e new und]tak+ is a speculation4 ,an inv5tor speculates on :at he is go+ to inv5t4 ,(t5 su* speculations result 9 losses1 because _m inv5tors1 or w\ld-be-inv5tors1 nev] accompli% v mu*4 ,!y sp5d _! money1 "t1 & ef=ts1 & probably live ye>s 9 pov]ty1 & !n if ! inv5tion is n pr(itable1 !y are heavy los]s4 ,_m inv5tors sp5d ! be/ ye>s ( _! lives 9 pov]ty & nev] succe$4 ,we he> a great deal ab\t "s ( ^? :o d succe$1 b v little ab\t ^? :o fail--^? ^: speculations 7 unsuccessful--except :5 somebody accuses !m ( be+ crooks because !y solicit$ money = ! promotion ( _! inv5tions & did n succe$4 ,x is ! same ?+ ) e new bus9ess4 ,x is purely a speculation4 ,x is a common say+ t #ie ( comm]cial und]tak+s fail4 ,we d n "k t t /atem5t is correct1 b !re is no "q b t ! numb] ( failures is v great1 :i* %[s ! great risk 9 go+ into a new und]tak+4 ,x is f> great] ?an ! risk involv$ 9 /ock speculat+ :5 x is done 9 accordance ) ! advice giv5 9 ?is book4 ,yet1 !re w\ld be no progress )\t speculat+ ( ?is k9d4 ,if ^? ent]+ a new bus9ess w\ld make a c>eful /udy ( ! v5ture be=e ent]+ x1 & w\ld ex]cise great] c>e & judgm5t 9 conduct+ x1 ! numb] ( failures w\ld be v mu* less4 ,! same ?+ is true ( /ock speculat+4 ,! failures 9 /ock speculat+ are caus$ ma9ly by ignorance & gre$9ess4 ,_m p :o w\ld be satisfi$ ) a fair return on _! money 9 a bus9ess ent]prise1 ?9k !y ought to make a #ajj pr(it 9 a few weeks 9 /ock speculation4 ,!re is some?+ ab\t /ock speculation t appeals to ! gre$9ess & pure gambl+ in/9cts ( p4 ,9 ! *apt] on ,manipulation1 we h told y h[ /ock prices are put up & d[n4 ,"s outsid] accid5tally buys "o ( ^! /ocks j be=e ! price />ts up4 ,9 ?irty days he has made sev]al hundr$ p] c5t pr(it4 ,he does n realize t x 0 purely accid5tal z f> z he 0 conc]n$1 & he tries to d ! same ?+ aga91 & loses all ( 8 pr(its & probably all ( 8 capital z well4 ,a /ock gambl] 7we use ! ^w gambl] to ref] to a man :o op]ates ignorantly7 is wat*+ a l>ge numb] ( extremely speculative /ocks & sudd5ly notices "o t takes a big jump 9 price4 ,!n he says to himself1 ,if ,i only _h b\ght t /ock on a t5-po9t m>g91 ,i w\ld h made sev]al hundr$ p] c5t pr(it4 ,he picks out ano!r /ock t "s "o tells him is go+ to d equally z well4 ,he buys z mu* ( x z he c & puts up all ! money he has z a m>g91 b ! price doesn't g up4 ,p]haps ! price goes d[n & he loses 8 m>g92 b1 x may rema9 almo/ /ation>y = a long p]iod1 sometimes = a ye> or m1 & dur+ all ( ?is "t1 ?is man is worry+ = fe> he w lose 8 money4 ,if he does n lose 8 money1 x is ti$ up = a long "t :]e he _c use x to take advantage ( real opportunities t come 8 way4 ,x does n pay to take big risks4 ,t is true 9 /ock speculat+ ! same z 9 any o!r und]tak+4 ,mo/ speculators are keep+ _! m9ds all ! "t on ! possibilities ( pr(it & n ?9k+ ab\t ! possibilities ( los+4 ,if y want to be successful 9 /ock speculat+1 !re is "o ?+ y mu/ le>n to d1 & t is nev] to ?9k ab\t ! big pr(its y might h made if y _h b\ght su* & su* a /ock1 because ! probabilities are y c\ld n h af=d$ to take ! necess>y risk 9 buy+ t /ock4 ,( c\rse1 aft] x is all ov]1 x may look to y z ?\gh ! buy+ ( t /ock 0 a sure ?+1 b ! buy+ ( su* /ocks is nev] a sure ?+4 ,! risk always exi/s4 ,!re is an old say+1 & we believe a v true "o1 t a man :o speculates ) ! idea ( gett+ ri* quickly loses all 8 money quickly1 b t ! man :o speculates ) ! idea ( mak+ a fair return on 8 money usually gets ri*4 ,9 our advice to our cli5ts1 we seldom recomm5d highly speculative /ocks1 because we consid] ! avoidance ( loss m important ?an ! mak+ ( pr(its4 ,y may object to t /atem5t1 because y speculate to make pr(its1 & n = ! purpose ( avoid+ losses4 ,nev]!less1 if y are c>eful 9 keep+ y\r losses d[n to a m9imum1 y\r pr(its are likely to be v lib]al4 ,any trad] :o trades = any great l5g? ( "t is likely to make l>ge pr(its sometimes1 & yet ! majority ( !m h great] losses ?an pr(its4 ,x is said t m ?an #hj ( all m>g9 trad]s lose2 b we d n consid] t an argum5t aga9/ trad+ on m>g91 because ^! losses are mo/ly due to ignorance1 gre$9ess1 & ! tak+ ( too great *ances4 ,d n suppress y\r desire to speculate4 ,all progress w\ld /op if p did n speculate4 ,b d n speculate 9 /ocks nor 9 any?+ else )\t any k ( :at y are do+1 & try to use z mu* good judgm5t & c>e z possible 9 all ( y\r transactions4 ,if y d n "k :at to d1 get advice f someone :o is suppos$ to "k & :o is n int]e/$ 9 hav+ y buy or sell4 ,/ock speculat+ ) safety is possible = ^? :o make ! ef=t to be guid$ by correct pr9ciples4 ,,*apt] ,,xxiii4 ,,two ,,k9ds ,,( ,,trad]s ,!re are two k9ds ( /ock trad]s4 ,"o k9d ne>ly always makes a pr(it1 & ! o!r w9s sometimes & loses o!r times1 b ev5tually loses all if he does n *ange 8 me?ods4 ,! fir/ k9d buys /ocks on lib]al m>g9 or outright & is n worri$ :5 ! m>ket goes aga9/ him1 because he has good reasons = believ+ t prices ev5tually w g up4 ,if he does h to take a loss occasionally1 x is likely to be small comp>$ ) 8 pr(its4 ,! second k9d wants to make a big pr(it quickly1 & he buys /ocks t he ?9ks are go+ to make big ga9s 9 ! ne> future1 b 8 selections are n bas$ ^u good judgm5t4 ,we might designate ^! two trad]s z ! c>eful trad] & ! reckless trad]4 ,! c>eful trad] tries to get good advice on ! m>kets & ! values ( /ocks4 ,if ! advice appe>s to him to be cons]vative1 he is guid$ by x2 b if ! reckless trad] gets advice on /ocks1 he is n guid$ by x if x is ( a cons]vative nature4 ,if he does take advice1 x is likely to be f "o ( ^? unreliable m>ket tip/]s :o is v emphatic 9 8 /atem5ts ab\t :at ! m>ket is go+ to d4 ,! reckless trad] lets 8 gre$ & desire = l>ge & quick pr(its influ5ce 8 judgm5t4 ,once 9 a :ile "o ( ^! reckless trad]s realizes t he has made a great mi/ake1 & he wants to *ange 8 attitude4 ,usually he is hold+ sev]al /ocks t %[ a big loss & he does n "k :at to d ) !m4 ,he reasons t !y are sell+ s l[ n[ !y surely w sell high] "s "t4 ,p]haps 8 reason+ is good & p]haps x is n4 ,! /ocks may h no *ance ( go+ up = a v long "t1 if at all1 b ev5 ?\gh !y h a good *ance to g up lat]1 x is bett] = him to sell !m n[ if he c put ! money d]iv$ f ! sale into some?+ else t has a bett] *ance to make a pr(it4 ,our advice is nev] to hesitate to sell & take a loss if y c put ! proce$s f ! sale into some?+ bett] r ?an leave x 9 ! /ock 9 :i* x is n[4 ,x is n s mu* a "q :e!r or n ! /ock y are hold+ w g up1 z x is :e!r or n y w\ld buy t p>ticul> /ock if y 7 j com+ into ! m>ket to make a pur*ase4 ,( c\rse !re is a loss ( commissions :5 y sell a /ock & buy some?+ else1 & = t reason we sometimes recomm5d hold+ a /ock :5 we w\ld n recomm5d buy+ x4 ,if y h be5 a reckless trad] 9 ! pa/1 ! only ?+ = y to d is to *ange y\r me?ods & try to become a c>eful trad]4 ,x is mu* bett] to g to ! extreme 9 c>efulness & be satisfi$ ) v small pr(its ?an to take great risks4 ,,*apt] ,,xxiv4 ,,possibilities ,,( ,,pr(it ,:at are ! possibilities ( pr(it 9 /ock speculation8 ,t "q is frequ5tly ask$ b x is difficult to answ]4 ,james ,r4 ,ke5e is quot$ z hav+ said3 ,_m m5 come to ,wall ,/reet to get ri*2 !y always g broke4 ,o!rs come to ,wall ,/reet to op]ate intellig5tly = fair returns2 !y usually get ri*4 ,:ile x is true t ne>ly all /ock trad]s :o try to make unusually l>ge pr(its 9 a v %ort "t 9 /ock trad+ lose1 yet unusual pr(its c be made if y ex]cise good judgm5t & h pati5ce4 ,rog] ,w4 ,babson1 9 8 book entitl$1 ,bus9ess ,b>omet]s1 speaks ( ! possibilities ( pr(it 9 language t w\ld be consid]$ greatly exagg]at$ if us$ by a promot]1 & yet he is extremely cons]vative 9 8 advice to trad]s4 ,he advises nev] to buy on m>g91 nev] to sell %ort1 & /ay+ out ( ! m>ket entirely1 nei!r buy+ or sell+1 = a great "p ( ! "t4 ,"h is a quotation f 8 book1 :i* foll[s a detail$ /atem5t ( an inve/m5t ( #b1ejj ov] a p]iod ( fifty ye>s3 ,! prec$+ example %[s t #b1ejj cons]vatively inve/$ 9 a few /&>d /ocks ab\t fifty ye>s ago w\ld today am\nt to ov] #a1jjj1jjj4 ,^! are n only /rictly inve/m5t /ocks1 b are also /ocks :i* h fluctuat$ comp>atively little 9 price4 ,?is1 moreov] 0 possible by giv+ ord]s to buy or sell only once 9 e ?ree or f\r ye>s4 ,if o!r /ocks :i* 7 n divid5d pay]s & :i* h %[n great] fluctuations 7 pur*as$1 & advantage _h be5 tak5 ( ! int]m$iate fluctuations1 ! #b1ejj w\ld h am\nt$ to mu* l>g] figures4 ,by int]m$iate movem5ts is n meant ! weekly movem5ts :i* ! ord9>y pr(essional op]ator notes1 b ! broad] movem5ts ext5d+ ov] _m mon?s & possibly a ye> or m4 ,nev]!less1 ^! broad] int]m$iate movem5ts %\ld n be notic$ by a cons]vative inve/or1 z x is possible to correctly diagnose only ! movem5ts ext5d+ ov] long] p]iods4 ,_m brok]s believe t x is possible to disc]n also ^! int]m$iate movem5ts ( six or eight mon?s2 & if s1 ! foll[+ results w\ld h be5 possible4 #e1jjj inve/$ 9 ',/4 ,paul' 9 #ahgj w\ld am\nt to ov] #aj1jjj1jjj today4 #e1jjj inve/$ 9 ',union ,pacific' 9 #ahgj w\ld am\nt to ov] #ae1jjj1jjj today4 #e1jjj inve/$ 9 ',c5tral ( ,new ,j]sey' w\ld am\nt to ov] #cj1jjj1jjj today4 #e1jjj inve/$ 9 ',nor!rn ,pacific' w\ld am\nt to ov] #ej1jjj1jjj today4 ,^! figures are n bas$ on ! supposition t ! inve/or 0 sell+ at ! top ( e rise or buy+ at ! bottom ( e decl9e1 b t ! transactions 7 made at av]age 'high' & av]age 'l[' prices bas$ ^u ! /udy ( te*nical conditions4 ,if su* l>ge pr(its c be made by foll[+ ,babson's advice1 ( c\rse l>g] pr(its c be made by buy+ on cons]vative m>g9 & by sell+ %ort :5 all ! conditions are 9 favor ( x4 ,:ile !re are possibilities ( mak+ extremely l>ge pr(its )\t tak+ great risks1 by ^? :o are pati5t & ex]cise good judgm5t1 "o %\ld be satisfi$ ) a small pr(it1 if x is ! result ( great c>e1 9 an ef=t to elim9ate risk4 ,( c\rse1 y c af=d to take a mu* great] risk ) a small "p ( y\r speculative fund ?an y c ) all ( x4 ,! less money y h ) :i* to speculate1 ! m c>eful y %\ld be4 ,"s p _c af=d to speculate at all4 ,!y %\ld inve/ _! funds 9 good1 safe inve/m5ts1 b ?is book is writt5 = speculators4 ,c>eful /ock speculation c>ri$ on regul>ly ov] a p]iod ( ye>s1 we believe br+s l>g] returns ?an almo/ any?+ else1 & 9 ! next *apt] we tell y some?+ ab\t :]e to get in=mation to guide y4 ,,*apt] ,,xxv4 ,,m>ket ,,in=mation ,:]e d y get y\r m>ket in=mation8 ,p]haps mo/ p get x f ! daily pap]s4 ,:5 y look ov] ! f9ancial news ( "o ( ! lead+ metropolitan pap]s & see h[ mu* !re is ( x1 y c get "s idea ( ! enorm\s volume ( "w necess>y to get ?is matt] ready = ! press 9 a few h\rs4 ,!re is no "t to confirm reports4 ,x is necess>y t _m ( ! articles be writt5 f pure imag9ation1 bas$ on rumors4 ,weekly & mon?ly p]iodicals c be m accurate 9 _! in=mation1 b ev5 !y are n always dep5dable4 ,mu* ( ! f9ancial news publi%$ comes f ag5cies t are n reliable4 ,read :at ,h5ry ,clews says ab\t !m3 ,pr9cipally among ^! cat]]s are ! f9ancial news ag5cies & ! morn+ ,wall ,/reet news %eet1 bo? specially devot$ to ! speculative int]e/s t c5tre at ! ,/ock ,ex*ange4 ,! object ( ^! ag5cies is a useful "o2 b ! public h a "r to expect t :5 !y subscribe = in=mation ^u :i* imm5se transactions may be und]tak51 ! utmo/ caution1 scrut9y & fidelity %\ld be ex]cis$ 9 ! procurem5t & publication ( ! news4 ,any?+ t falls %ort ( ?is is some?+ worse ?an bad s]vice & bad fai? ) subscrib]s2 x is di%one/ & mis*iev\s4 ,& yet x _c be d5i$ t mu* ( ! s-call$ news t rea*es ! public ?r\gh ^! in/rum5talities mu/ come "u ?is condemnation4 ,! 'po9ts1' ! 'puffs1' ! al>ms & ! can>ds1 put out expressly to deceive & mislead1 f9d a wide circulation ?r\gh ^! m$iums1 ) an ease :i* admits ( no possible ju/ification4 ,h[ f> ^! lapses are due to ! ha/e insep>able f ! compilation ( news ( su* a "*1 h[ f> to a lack ( prop] sift+ & caution1 h[ f> to less culpable reasons ,i d n pret5d to decide2 b ?is w be admitt$ by e obs]v]1 t ! circulation ( pseudo news is ! frequ5t cause ( incalculable losses4 ,nor is x alone 9 ! matt] ( circulat+ false in=mation t ^! news v5d]s are at fault4 ,! habit ( retail+ 'po9ts' 9 ! int]e/ ( cliques1 ! volunte]+ ( advice z to :at p %\ld buy & :at !y %\ld sell1 ! /rong speculative bias t runs ?r\gh _! editorial op9ions1 ^! ?+s appe> to mo/ p a revolt+ abuse ( ! true functions ( j\rnalism4 ,( c\rse1 e trad] gets m>ket lett]s f "o or m brok]s4 ,^! are _m & v>i$ 9 "*4 ,"s ( !m are prep>$ ) great c>e & give reliable in=mation1 b y mu/ rememb] t a brok]'s m>ket lett] is publi%$ = ! purpose ( gett+ bus9ess1 & bus9ess is creat$ only by ! cu/om]s' trad+4 ,!re=e x is to ! brok]'s int]e/ to h 8 cu/om]s make _m trades in/ead ( a few trades4 ,9 8 book ,bus9ess ,b>omet]s1 ,rog] ,w4 ,babson reproduces a lett] writt5 to him by ! ,manag] ( ! ,cu/om]s' ,room ( a ,/ock ,ex*ange ,h\se4 ,we consid] ?is lett] s important to all trad]s1 we are tak+ ! lib]ty to reproduce x "h3 ,he>+ on e h& ab\t ! =tunes made 9 ,wall ,/reet1 ,i decid$1 ^u be+ graduat$ f college1 to devote myself to f9ance4 ,) ?is end 9 view1 ,i secur$ a position ) a fir/-class ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange ,h\se1 f9ally becom+ ! 'h&%ak]' = ! firm2 t is1 'manag]' ( ! cu/om]s' room4 ,s ,i _h an exceptional opportunity to size up ! /ock bus9ess4 ,! *ief duties ( ! manag] are to meet cu/om]s :5 !y visit ! (fice1 tell !m h[ ! m>ket is act+1 ! late/ news f ! news-tick]s & ! gossip ( ! ,/reet4 ,b ! real duties are to get bus9ess = ! h\se4 ,once a mo/ peculi> man came to ! (fice4 ,he 0 ab\t =ty-five ye>s ( age1 dress$ 9 a fad$ cutaway coat1 high-wat] tr\s]s1 & an ,ea/ ,side l[-cr[n d]by hat4 ,9 a high squeaky voice he said t he knew our ,milwaukee ,h\se & w\ld l to op5 an acc\nt4 ,( c\rse1 we 7 all smiles1 = "h 0 a new 'cu/om]4' ,"o day :ile 9 ,bo/on he call$ u up on ! long-di/ance telephone to make an inquiry ab\t ! gra9 m>ket4 ,"o ( my assi/ants1 desir+ to get a commission out ( him1 said ',we he> t ,s\!rn ,pacific is go+ up2 y _h bett] get abo>d4' ,he said ',all "r2 buy me a hundr$ at ! m>ket4' ,! /ock 0 b\ght1 b he nev] saw daylight on 8 pur*ase1 = ! m>ket decl9$ /eadily aft]w>d & by ! "t he got back f ,bo/on x %[$ a heavy loss4 ,! man :o advis$ its pur*ase _h no special k ab\t ! /ock1 b simply took a *ance1 kn[+ t ! m>ket _h only two ways to g1 & x might g up1 9 :i* case1 besides mak+ tw5ty-five doll>s 9 commissions = ! h\se1 he w\ld be patt$ on ! back = 8 good judgm5t4 ,if ! m>ket w5t d[n1 z x did1 he w\ld /ill make tw5ty-five doll>s4 ,i v5ture to say t #ii ( ! speculations on ! ,new ,york ,/ock ,ex*ange are bas$ on su* s-call$ 'tips'4 ,! manag] has got to get ! bus9ess to keep 8 position & sal>y1 & ?is c only be done by 't\t+' p into ! m>ket4 ,s he draws on ! 'dope' %eets ( ! pr(essional tip/]s & 8 own feel+s1 & gives positive in=mation to ! bleat+ lamb t ! ,/&>d ,oil is putt+ up ,/4 ,paul1 or t c]ta9 influ5tial bank]s are 'bull+' ,union ,pacific4 ,! lamb buys ! /ock1 ! brok] gets ! commission1 & !n ! lamb worries 8 he>t out z he sees 8 "o-?\s&-doll> m>g9 jump+ ar\nd 9 value4 ,n[ x has increas$ to elev5 hundr$ doll>s1 !n decl9$ to n9e hundr$ & fifty doll>s1 !n n9e hundr$ doll>s1 eight hundr$ doll>s1 !n back to eight hundr$ & fifty doll>s & !n x takes ! 'toboggan' to ?ree hundr$ doll>s ^u :i* ! brok] calls = m>g9s1 & sells ! cu/om] out if !y are n =?com+1 ! :ole speculation be+ bas$ on ! manag]'s 'feel+' t /ocks ought to g up4 ,m5 ( affairs :o w n play pok] at home1 & are %ock$ at ! m5tion ( f>o & r\lette1 :i* any old-tim] w tell y are easi] to beat ?an ! /ock m>ket1 ?9k !y are us+ bus9ess judgm5t :5 !y try to make money on /ock m>ket 'tips'4 ,anyone ) common s5se c see t a #aj m>g9 has no m *ance 9 an active m>ket ?an a bru% dam 9 a ,john/[n flood4 ,"o ( ! causes = ?is k9d ( speculat+ on a m>g9 is t a brok]'s commission is only #ab-a_/b c5ts p] %>e & x does n pay to d small-lot bus9ess4 ,! "o-?\s&-doll> m>g9 w\ld only buy t5 %>es outright & net ! brok] b #a4be = buy+ & #a4be = sell+1 :]eas t same am\nt z m>g9 on "o hundr$ %>es yields ! brok] #ab4ej ea* way besides int]e/ on ! balance1 ! net result be+ t = any giv5 am\nt ( money a speculator on #aj m>g9 multiplies 8 pr(its by t5 & 8 losses by t5 ov] ^? t w\ld occur 7 he to buy ! /ock outright & take x home4 ,! brok] on 8 side multiplies 8 commission by t5 ov] :at he w\ld receive 7 he to d an inve/m5t bus9ess4 ,f ! above lett] y get an idea ( ! attitude ( an employee ( ! av]age brok]'s (fice4 ,he w\ld n be consid]$ loyal to 8 employ] if he _h a diff]5t attitude4 ,:5 an attitude l ?is influ5ces ! brok]'s m>ket lett]s1 !y are n reliable4 ,y may ask :e!r !re is any reliable in=mation ab\t ! m>ket4 ,yes1 !re is4 ,!re are sev]al l>ge organizations t make a /udy ( fundam5tal /ati/ics & /ati/ics ( diff]5t companies & give in=mation to _! subscrib]s bas$ ^u ?is k4 ,we believe t is ! only k9d ( in=mation t is wor? v mu* to a trad]1 except ! /ati/ical in=mation--! numb] ( %>es sold & ! prices at :i* !y are sold--he gets f 8 daily or weekly pap]s4 ,"s ( ! pr9cipal organizations ( ?is k9d are z foll[s3 ,/&>d ,/ati/ics ,company1 ,inc4 ,babson's ,/ati/ical ,organization4 ,! ,brookmire ,economic ,s]vice4 ,h>v>d ,economic ,s]vice4 ,poor's ,inve/m5t ,s]vice4 ,moody's ,inve/ors ,s]vice4 ,ri*>d ,d4 ,wyck(f ,analytical ,/aff4 ,! above are ! pr9cipal organizations ( ?is k9d4 ,subscriptions to _! s]vice co/ f #he to #ajjj a ye>4 ,9 addition to ^! !re are a few o!r organizations besides our own & individuals giv+ a some:at simil> s]vice1 b we "k ( none t gives su* a s]vice at z l[ a price z ours4 ,y %\ld n confuse ! s]vice giv5 by ! above organizations ) t giv5 by _m organizations & individuals :o attempt to tell y :at ! m>ket is go+ to d f day to day4 ,9 o!r words1 !y give 'tips' on ! m>ket4 ,!re are a numb] :o issue daily m>ket lett]s ( ?is k9d & *>ge f #aj to #be a mon? = _! s]vice1 b x is a l9e ( s]vice t we d n recomm5d at all1 because we consid] t y w\ld be tak+ a v great risk if y foll[$ advice ( t k9d4 ,y might make enorm\sly l>ge pr(its occasionally1 b y w\ld also h frequ5t losses1 & :5 ! losses did come !y might be great] ?an all ! previ\s pr(its4 ,we want y to und]/& t t k9d ( advice is entirely diff]5t f :at we are recomm5d+4 ,,*apt] ,,xxvi4 ,,successful ,,speculation ,success 9 /ock speculation dep5ds ^u a few ?+s t are v simple4 ,if y "k :at to buy1 :5 to buy1 & :5 to sell1 & w act 9 accordance ) t k1 y\r success is assur$4 ,y may ?9k x is impossible to "k ^! ?+s1 b x is n s difficult z x is suppos$ to be4 ,_m p buy /ocks at ! wrong "t1 & mo/ ( ^? :o d buy !m at ! "r "t1 buy ! wrong /ocks4 ,"r n[ 7e>ly 9 ,april1 #aibb7 is buy+ "t 9 ! /ock m>ket1 & x is possible t ?is buy+ "t may cont9ue--) "s int]ruptions--= ano!r ye> or two1 or ev5 long]4 ,x is m difficult1 h[ev]1 to tell y ,,:at /ocks to buy4 ,fir/ ( all1 we advise y aga9/ buy+ /ocks t are put up to high prices by manipulation4 ,( c\rse1 if y get 9 "o ( ^? /ocks "r & get out "r1 y\r pr(its are v l>ge1 b y take a great risk1 & ^? :o w9 once or twice by ?is me?od are almo/ sure to lose ev]y?+ soon] or lat] 9 an ef=t to d ! same ?+ aga94 ,y\r *ances are n mu* bett] ?an if y gambl$ at ,monte ,c>lo4 ,! *ances 9 buy+ manipulat$ /ocks are inv>iably aga9/ ! outsid]4 ,!re always is s mu* publicity ab\t ^! v active speculative /ocks t ! public is attract$ t[>ds !m4 ,newspap]s & brok]s' m>ket lett]s give altoge!r too mu* space to !m4 ,su* /ocks sell f> too high1 & :5 ! break comes1 x br+s ru9\s losses to _m p4 ,on ! o!r h&1 by foll[+ a cons]vative c\rse1 y really h a *ance to make l>ge pr(its ) a m9imum risk4 ,we are giv+ bel[ sixte5 /ocks t we recomm5d$ 9 our ,advisory ,lett] ( ,febru>y #ad?1 #aibb1 ) ! approximate prices ( !m !n & ! approximate prices on ,m>* #ca/4#b ,9 arriv+ at ^! prices1 we took ! clos+ prices on ,febru>y #ac? & on ,m>* #ca/1 & omitt$ ! fractions4 ,we recomm5d$ only sixte5 /ocks on t date1 & y w see t e "o ( !m made sub/antial ga9s4 ,approximate ,approximate ,price ,price ,/ock ,feb4 #ad1 #aibb ,m>4 #ca1 #aibb ,pr(it ,c4 ,r4 ,i4 ,p4 pfd 7#f7 #ge #gi #d ,c4 ,r4 ,i4 ,p4 pfd 7#g7 #hh #ic #e ,new ,york ,c5tral #gf #hh #ab ,pacific ,gas ,electric #fd #fh #d ,consolidat$ ,gas #ij #aji #ai ,am]ican ,telephone ,telegraph #aah #aba #c ,g5]al ,motors ,deb4 7#f7 #gj #gh #h ,g5]al ,motors ,deb4 7#g7 #ha #ia #aj ,u4 ,s4 ,/eel #hg #ie #h ,dome ,m9es #bc #bf #c ,lacl$e ,gas #ej #fc #ac ,miss\ri ,pacific ,pfd #dh #ed #f ,c4 ,r4 ,i4 ,p4 ,common #cc #dj #g ,am4 ,smel4 ,ref9+ #de #ec #h ,anaconda #dg #ea #d ,erie ,common #aj #aa #a ---- ---- --- ,total #ajje #aabj #aae ,let u suppose y b\ght t5 %>es ( ea* ( ^! /ocks on ,febru>y #ad?4 ,!y w\ld h co/ y #aj1jej4 ,we recomm5d$ #cj m>g9 on ! fir/ t51 all ( :i* 7 divid5d pay]s2 & #ej m>g9 on ! la/ six1 because !y 7 m speculative & w\ld h be5 m affect$ by a reaction 9 ! m>ket4 ,to buy t5 %>es ( ea* on t m>g9 basis w\ld h requir$ a little less ?an #c1ejj1 b let u suppose y put up #c1ejj4 ,aft] all[+ = buy+ & sell+ commissions & int]e/ on ! balance ( #f1eej1 b cr$it+ y ) divid5ds paid1 y\r pr(it w\ld be ab\t #cb or at ! rate ( ab\t #bej p] annum4 ,( c\rse1 we d n claim t by foll[+ ! cons]vative c\rse we advise1 y always w make su* l>ge pr(its1 al?\gh y might d j z well z t if y took advantage ( "s ( ! opportunities s frequ5tly to be f\nd 9 ! m>ket2 b ke5 discrim9ation 9 :at y buy always is necess>y4 ,h[ev]1 let u suppose y made annual pr(its ( "o-fif? ! above am\nt1 or #ej1 :i* is easily possible )\t tak+ ! risks t are usually tak5 9 /ock speculat+4 ,if y inve/$ #ajjj & made #ej pr(it p] annum1 re9ve/+ y\r pr(it at ! same rate ea* ye> = tw5ty ye>s1 y w\ld h m ?an ,,?ree ,,million ,,doll>s4 ,:5 !re is a possibility ( mak+ su* enorm\s pr(its z t by foll[+ c>eful me?ods1 surely !re is no argum5t 9 favor ( tak+ ! extreme risks t p d take 9 buy+ ! highly speculative /ocks1 ! prices ( :i* are put up = ! purpose ( unload+ !m on ! public4 ,t5 ( ! /ocks we select$ 9 ! above li/ 7 divid5d pay]s1 & :ile ! o!r six 7 n1 !y 7 consid]$ wor? mu* m ?an _! m>ket prices1 & ! li/ z a :ole 0 conc$$ by cons]vative p z a safe "o to buy4 ,v frequ5tly we are able to recomm5d a li/ ( /ocks t we believe w yield equally l>ge pr(its1 b ! /ocks y %\ld buy are n ! ones t are ! mo/ active nor ! ones t are m5tion$ mo/ frequ5tly 9 ! f9ancial news & brok]s' m>ket lett]s4 ,! /ocks t mo/ p buy are usually ! v /ocks t %\ld be left alone4 ,! /ocks y %\ld buy are usually ! ones y he> v little ab\t4 ,!re is only "o ,,safe way to speculate1 & t is to be guid$ by a k ( ! fundam5tal conditions ( ea* /ock & also ( ! indu/ries !y repres5t4 ,!re are sev]al l>ge organizations giv+ in=mation ( ?is k9d1 & ^? :o h be5 guid$ by ! fundam5tal /ati/ics issu$ by !m1 almo/ inv>iably h made money 9 /ock speculat+4 ,! value ( t k9d ( s]vice has be5 ?or\ghly demon/rat$ beyond any "q4 ,h[ev]1 a subscription = ! s]vice ( mo/ ( ^! organizations co/s m ?an ! av]age p]son c af=d to pay4 ,usually x is any:]e f #ajj to #a1jjj a ye>4 ,we are giv+ a s]vice = ! purpose ( guid+ our cli5ts to successful speculation = a fee ( only #be a ye>1 #ae = six mon?s1 or #aj = ?ree mon?s4 ,= ?is fee we tell y :at /ocks to buy1 :5 to buy1 & :5 to sell4 ,we s5d y our recomm5dations at lea/ twice a mon?1 b s5d y additional ,advisory ,lett]s & li/s (t5] if conditions make x necess>y4 ,y also h ! privilege ( unlimit$ p]sonal correspond5ce reg>d+ y\r m>ket problems4 ,! co/ ( our ,s]vice is v small1 comp>$ ) :at o!r reliable organizations *>ge4 ,our ,s]vice is bas$ on ! pr9ciples exp\nd$ 9 ?is book4 ,we try to select /ocks hav+ ! greate/ possibilities ( pr(it ) m9imum risk1 & ! sample ( our ,s]vice giv5 9 ?is *apt] is pro( ( our success4 ,,national ,,bureau ,,( ,,f9ancial ,,in=mation #cie ,broadway1 ,new ,york ,city ,,footnotes3 #b ,we did n advise ! sale ( ^! /ocks on ,m>* #ca/1 b ! au?or figur$ pr(its to t date because ?is book 0 writt5 %ortly aft] t4 ,if ^! /ocks _h be5 b\ght on or ab\t ,febru>y #ad?1 on ! m>g9 basis sugge/$ by u1 & sold six mon?s lat]1 ! pr(it w\ld h be5 m ?an #fj1 or #abj ye>ly4