99 99 99 99 99 ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,transcrib]'s ,note3 ,9 ?is docum5t1 italics are repres5t$ z und]scores1 bold text is m>k$ ) equals signs1 & bullets are repres5t$ z ,"o ( ! tables 9 ?is docum5t is v wide 7#hj *>act]s7 ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- 99 99 99 99 99 ,,an ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,! ,,consequ5ces ,,& ,,prep>ations ,,= ,a ,,cata/rophic ,,cali=nia ,,e>?quake3 ,,f9d+s ,,& ,,actions ,,tak5 ,,f$]al ,,em]g5cy ,,managem5t ,,ag5cy ,,f ,,analyses ,,c>ri$ ,,out ,,by ,,! ,,national ,,security ,,c\ncil ad hoc ,,committee ,,on ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,consequ5ces ,,& ,,prep>ations ,,= ,a ,,major ,,cali=nia ,,e>?quake ,illu/ration3 fema symbol f$]al em]g5cy managem5t ag5cy ,wa%+ton1 ,d4,c4 #bjdgb ,novemb] #aihj ,,table ,,( ,,cont5ts ,page ,,*apt]3 ,i4 ,executive ,summ>y ( ,f9d+s1 ,issues1 & ,actions #a ,,ii4 ,geologic ,e>?quake ,sc5>ios #ae ,,iii4 ,assessm5t ( ,losses = ,select$ ,pot5tial ,cali=nia ,e>?quakes #ba ,,iv4 ,an ,assessm5t ( ! ,curr5t ,/ate ( ,read9ess ,capability ( ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & ,local ,gov]nm5ts = ,e>?quake ,response #bg ,v4 ,an ,assessm5t ( ! ,social ,impacts #ce ,,annex3 #a4 ,copies ( ,correspond5ce ,betwe5 ,presid5t ,c>t] & ,gov]nor ,br[n #cg #b4 ,curr5t ,cali=nia & ,f$]al ,e>?quake ,response ,plann+ #dc #c4 ,cali=nia ,assembly ,bill ,no4 #bbjb #ec ,,ackn[l$gem5ts #eg ,,*apt] ,i ,,executive ,,summ>y ,,( ,,f9d+s1 ,,issues1 ,,& ,,actions ,a4 ,,backgr\nd ,aft] view+ ! de/ruction wr\ght by ! eruption ( ,mt4 ,/4 ,hel5s 9 ,wa%+ton ,/ate 9 ,may #aihj1 ,presid5t ,c>t] became conc]n$ ab\t ! impacts ( a simil> ev5t ( l[ probability b high damage pot5tial1 namely a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia1 & ! /ate ( read9ess to cope ) ! impacts ( su* an ev5t4 ,z a result ( ! ,presid5t's conc]n1 an ad hoc committee ( ! ,national ,security ,c\ncil 0 =m$ to conduct a gov]nm5t review ( ! consequ5ces (1 & prep>ation = su* an ev5t4 ,9 addition to ! ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy1 ! ,committee includ$ repres5tatives f ! ,(fice ( ,sci5ce & ,te*nology ,policy1 ! ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ( ! ,dep>tm5t ( ! ,int]ior1 ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se1 ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,transportation1 & ! ,national ,communications ,sy/em1 at ! ,f$]al level2 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia ag5cies & ,cali=nia local gov]nm5ts at ! ,/ate & local levels2 & consultants f ! private sector4 ,dur+ ! summ] ( #aihj1 ! p>ticipants 9 ?is review prep>$ work+ pap]s on relevant issues & problem areas = ! consid]ation ( ! ad hoc committee4 ,p]t95t facts1 conclusions & recomm5dations 7 review$ ) ! ,gov]nor ( ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia4 ,! ,presid5t review$ ! ad hoc committee's f9d+s & approv$ ! recomm5dations = ,f$]al action4 ,?is report summ>izes ! results ( ! assessm5t & notes ^! actions4 ,a numb] ( ,f$]al legislative & adm9i/rative actions h be5 tak5 to br+ ab\t1 9 ! ne> future1 an increas$ capability to respond to su* an ev5t4 ,! ,e>?quake ,haz>ds ,r$uction ,act ( #aigg 7,p4,l4 #ie-abd7 au?orizes a coord9at$ & /ructur$ program to id5tify e>?quake risks & prep>e to less5 or mitigate _! impacts by a v>iety ( means4 ,! coord9ation ( ?is program1 ! ,national ,e>?quake ,haz>ds ,r$uction ,program 7,,nehrp71 is ! responsibility ( ! ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy 7,,fema71 :i* is *>g$ ) focus+ ,f$]al ef=ts to respond to em]g5cies ( all types & less5 _! impacts be=e !y occur4 ,! ,,nehrp has six high-priority ?ru/s3 ,ov]all coord9ation ( ,f$]al dep>tm5ts & ag5cies' programs ,ma9t5ance ( a compreh5sive program ( rese>* & developm5t = e>?quake pr$iction & haz>ds mitigation ,lead]%ip & support ( ! ,f$]al ,int]ag5cy ,committee on ,seismic ,safety 9 ,con/ruction z x develops seismic design & con/ruction /&>ds = use 9 ,f$]al projects ,developm5t ( response plans & assi/ance to ,/ate & local gov]nm5ts 9 ! prep>ation ( _! plans ,analysis ( ! ability ( f9ancial in/itutions to p]=m _! functions aft] a cr$itable pr$iction ( an e>?quake z well z aft] an ev5t1 toge!r ) an exploration ( ! feasibility ( us+ ^! in/itutions to fo/] haz>d r$uction ,an exam9ation ( ! appropriate role ( insurance 9 mitigat+ ! impacts ( e>?quakes4 ,m rec5tly1 a coop]ative ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 local1 & private-sector ef=t 0 initiat$ to prep>e = respond+ to a cr$ible l>ge-magnitude e>?quake1 or its pr$iction1 9 ,s\!rn ,cali=nia4 ,b4 ,,summ>y ,! review provid$ ! ov]all assessm5t t ! ,nation is ess5tially unprep>$ = ! cata/rophic e>?quake 7) a probability great] ?an #ej p]c5t7 t mu/ be expect$ 9 ,cali=nia 9 ! next ?ree decades4 ,:ile curr5t response plans & prep>$ness measures may be adequate = mod]ate e>?quakes1 ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local (ficials agree t prep>ations are woefully inadequate to cope ) ! damage & casualties f a cata/rophic e>?quake1 & ) ! disruptions 9 communications1 social fabric1 & gov]nm5tal /ructure t may foll[4 ,because ( ! l>ge conc5tration ( population & indu/ry1 ! impacts ( su* an e>?quake w\ld surpass ^? ( any natural disa/] ?us f> exp]i5c$ by ! ,nation4 ,inde$1 ! ,unit$ ,/ates has n suff]$ any disa/] ( ?is magnitude on its own t]ritory s9ce ! ,civil ,w>4 ,! basis = ?is ov]all assessm5t is summ>iz$ bel[ & discuss$ 9 m detail 9 ! subsequ5t *apt]s ( ?is report4 ,c4 ,,likelihood ,,( ,,future ,,e>?quakes ,e>? sci5ti/s unanim\sly agree on ! inevitability ( major e>?quakes 9 ,cali=nia4 ,! gradual movem5t ( ! ,pacific ,plate relative to ! ,nor? ,am]ican ,plate leads to ! inexorable conc5tration ( /ra9 along ! ,san ,&reas & relat$ fault sy/ems4 ,:ile "s ( ?is /ra9 is releas$ by mod]ate & small] e>?quakes & by slippage )\t e>?quakes1 geologic /udies indicate t ! va/ bulk ( ! /ra9 is releas$ ?r\gh ! occurr5ce ( major e>?quakes--t is1 e>?quakes ) ,ri*t] magnitudes ( #g4j & l>g] & capable ( widespread damage 9 a develop$ region4 ,along ! ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas fault1 "s #cj miles f ,los ,angeles1 = example1 geologi/s c demon/rate t at lea/ eight major e>?quakes h occurr$ 9 ! pa/ #a1bjj ye>s ) an av]age spac+ 9 "t ( #adj ye>s1 plus or m9us #cj ye>s4 ,! la/ su* ev5t occurr$ 9 #aheg4 ,bas$ on ^! /ati/ics & o!r geophysical obs]vations1 geologi/s e/imate t ! probability = ! recurr5ce ( a simil> e>?quake is curr5tly z l>ge z #b to #e p]c5t p] ye> & great] ?an #ej p]c5t 9 ! next #cj ye>s4 ,geologic evid5ce also indicates o!r faults capable ( g5]at+ major e>?quakes 9 o!r locations ne> urban c5t]s 9 ,cali=nia1 includ+ ,san ,francisco-,oakl&1 ! imm$iate ,los ,angeles region1 & ,san ,diego4 ,sev5 pot5tial ev5ts h be5 po/ulat$ = purposes ( ?is review & are discuss$ 9 *apt] ,,ii4 ,! curr5t e/imat$ probability = a major e>?quake 9 ^! o!r locations is small]1 b significant4 ,! aggregate probability = a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ! :ole ( ,cali=nia 9 ! next ?ree decades is well 9 excess ( #ej p]c5t4 ,d4 ,,casualties ,,& ,,prop]ty ,,damage ,casualties & prop]ty damage e/imates = f\r ( ! mo/ likely cata/rophic e>?quakes 9 ,cali=nia 7 prep>$ to =m a basis = em]g5cy prep>$ness & response4 ,*apt] ,,iii gives details on ^! e/imates4 ,dea?s & injuries w\ld occur pr9cipally because ( ! failure ( man-made /ructures1 p>ticul>ly old]1 multi/ory1 & unre9=c$ brick masonry build+s built be=e ! adoption ( e>?quake-resi/ant build+ codes4 ,exp]i5ce has %[n t "s mod]n multi/ory build+s--con/ruct$ z rec5tly z ! late #aifj's b n adequately design$ or erect$ to meet ! curr5t und]/&+ ( requirem5ts = seismic resi/ance--are also subject to failure4 ,/rong gr\nd %ak+1 :i* is ! prim>y cause ( damage dur+ e>?quakes1 (t5 ext5ds ov] va/ areas4 ,= example1 9 an e>?quake simil> to t :i* occurr$ 9 #aheg1 /rong gr\nd %ak+ 7above ! ?re%old = caus+ damage7 w\ld ext5d 9 a broad /rip along ! ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas fault1 ab\t #bej miles long & #ajj miles wide1 & include almo/ all ( ! ,los ,angeles-,san ,b]n>d9o metropolitan area1 & all ( ,v5tura1 ,santa ,b>b>a1 ,san ,luis ,obispo1 & ,k]n c\nties4 ,= ! mo/ probable cata/rophic e>?quake--a ,ri*t] magnitude #h e>?quake simil> to t ( #aheg1 :i* occurr$ along ! ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas fault--e/imates ( fatalities range f ab\t #c1jjj1 if ! e>?quake 7 to occur at #b3cj a4m4 :5 ! population is relatively safe at home1 to m ?an #ac1jjj1 if ! e>?quake 7 to occur at #d3cj p4m4 on a weekday1 :5 mu* ( ! population is ei!r 9 (fice build+s or on ! /reets4 ,injuries s]i\s en\gh to require hospitalization "u normal circum/ances are e/imat$ to be ab\t f\r times z great z fatalities4 ,= ! less likely prospect ( a ,ri*t] magnitude #g4e e>?quake on ! ,newport-,+lewood fault 9 ! imm$iate ,los ,angeles area1 fatalities are e/imat$ to be ab\t #d1jjj to #bc1jjj1 at ! same respective times4 ,su* an e>?quake1 despite its small] magnitude1 w\ld be m de/ructive because ( its relative proximity to ! mo/ heavily develop$ regions2 h[ev]1 ! probability ( ?is ev5t is e/imat$ to be only ab\t #j4a p]c5t p] ye>4 ,small] magnitude--& consequ5tly less damag+--e>?quakes are anticipat$ ) great] frequ5cy on a numb] ( fault sy/ems 9 ,cali=nia4 ,9 ei!r ( ^! e>?quakes1 casualties c\ld surpass ! previ\s s+le greate/ loss ( life 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates due to a natural disa/]1 :i* 0 ab\t #f1jjj p]sons kill$ :5 a hurricane & /orm surge /ruck ! ,galve/on area ( ! ,texas coa/ 9 #aijj4 ,! highe/ loss ( life due to e>?quakes 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates occurr$ 9 ,san ,francisco 9 #aijf1 :5 #gjj p 7 kill$4 ,by way ( comp>ison 79 spite ( ! va/ diff]5ces 9 build+ design & practices & socioeconomic sy/ems7 ! deva/at+ #aigf ,tang%an e>?quake 9 ,*9a caus$ fatalities rang+ f ! (ficial ,*9ese ,gov]nm5t figure ( #bdb1jjj to un(ficial e/imates z high z #gjj1jjj4 ,=tunately1 build+ practices 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates preclude su* a massive loss ( life4 ,prop]ty losses are expect$ to be high] ?an 9 any pa/ e>?quake 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates4 ,= example1 ,san ,francisco 9 #aijf1 & ,an*orage 9 #aifd1 7 bo? mu* less develop$ ?an today :5 !y 7 hit by e>?quakes4 ,& ! ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake 9 #aiga1 0 only a mod]ate %ock t /ruck on ! fr+e ( a l>ge urban area4 ,ea* ( ^! ?ree e>?quakes caus$ damage e/imat$ at ab\t #j4e billion 9 ! !n curr5t doll>s4 ,e/imates ( prop]ty damage = ! mo/ probable cata/rophic e>?quake on ! ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas 7,ri*t] magnitude #h7 & = ! less probable b m damag+ "o 7,ri*t] magnitude #g4e7 on ! ,newport-,+lewood fault1 are ab\t #ae billion & #gj billion respectively4 ,by comp>ison1 tropical /orm ,agnes caus$ ! l>ge/ economic loss due to a natural disa/] 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates to date b x am\nt$ to only #c4e billion 79 #aigb doll>s74 ,x %\ld be not$1 h[ev]1 t sub/antial unc]ta9ty exi/s 9 casualty & prop]ty damage e/imates because !y are bas$ on exp]i5ce ) only mod]ate e>?quakes 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates 7su* z ! #aiga ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake7 & exp]i5ce 9 o!r c\ntries :]e build+s are g5]ally less resi/ant to damage4 ,! unc]ta9ty is s l>ge t ! e/imat$ impacts c\ld be (f by a factor ( two or ?ree1 ei!r too high or too l[4 ,ev5 if ^! l[e/ e/imates prevail1 h[ev]1 ! assessm5t ab\t prep>$ness & ! capability to respond to ! disa/]s discuss$ 9 ?is report w\ld be sub/antially un*ang$4 ,assum+ a cata/rophic e>?quake1 a v>iety ( second>y problems c\ld also be expect$4 ,se>* & rescue op]ations--requir+ heavy equipm5t to move debris--w\ld be ne$$ to free p trapp$ 9 collaps$ build+s4 ,x is likely t injuries1 p>ticul>ly ^? imm$iately aft] ! ev5t1 c\ld ov]:elm m$ical capabilities1 necessitat+ a sy/em ( allocat+ m$ical res\rces to ^? :o c\ld be help$ ! mo/4 ,num]\s local fires mu/ be expect$2 nev]!less1 a conflagration su* z t :i* foll[$ ! ,tokyo e>?quake ( #aibc1 or ! ,san ,francisco e>?quake ( #aijf1 is improbable1 unless a ,santa ,ana type w9d patt]n is 9 effect4 ,s9ce ! ne> failure ( a dam 9 ! ,san ,f]n&o1 ,cali=nia1 e>?quake ( #aiga 7:i* 0 a mod]ate ev5t71 sub/antial progress has be5 made 9 ,cali=nia to r$uce ! haz>d f dams1 9 "s cases ?r\gh recon/ruction4 ,= plann+ purposes1 h[ev]1 exp]ts believe t ! failure ( at lea/ "o dam %\ld be anticipat$ dur+ a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ei!r ! ,los ,angeles or ,san ,francisco regions4 ,exp]i5ce 9 pa/ e>?quakes1 p>ticul>ly ! #aiga ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake1 has demon/rat$ ! pot5tial vuln]ability ( comm]cial telephone s]vice to e>?quakes1 includ+ ! possibility ( damage to swit*+ facilities f gr\nd %ak+ & rupture ( und]gr\nd cables t cross faults4 ,?is is especially s]i\s because imm$iately foll[+ e>?quakes1 public dem& = telephone s]vices increases dra/ically4 ,?is increas$ dem& ov]loads ! capability ( ! sy/em1 ev5 if x _h n be5 damag$1 & !re=e managem5t action to r$uce ! availability ( s]vice to non-priority us]s & to accommodate em]g5cy calls is m&atory4 ,radio-bas$ communication sy/ems1 p>ticul>ly ^? n requir+ comm]cial p[]1 are relatively safe f damage1 al?\gh "s mu/ be anticipat$4 ,! r$undancy ( exi/+ communication sy/ems1 includ+ ^? design$ = em]g5cy use1 means t "s capability = communicat+ ) ! affect$ region f ! outside w\ld almo/ surely exi/4 ,re/oration ( s]vice by ! comm]cial c>ri]s %\ld beg9 )9 #bd to #gb h\rs z a result ( ma9t5ance & managem5t actions2 h[ev]1 total re/oration ( s]vice w\ld take significantly long]4 ,:ile num]\s ag5cies h ! capability = em]g5cy communication )9 !mselves1 non-telephonic communication among entities & ag5cies 9 ! affect$ area is m9imal4 ,?is is true = ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local ag5cies4 ,?is weakness has be5 po9t$ out repeat$ly by e>?quake response ex]cises1 & ! problem is rais$ by almo/ e em]g5cy prep>$ness (ficial at e level ( gov]nm5t4 ,consequ5tly1 a major problem = resolution is ! op]ational integration ( communications sy/ems & networks among ! relevant ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local ag5cies4 ,because ( _! network-l "*1 mo/ sy/ems = transportation & wat] & p[] g5]ation & di/ribution1 z a :ole1 are resi/ant to failure1 despite pot5tially sev]e local damage4 ,^! sy/ems w\ld suff] s]i\s local outages1 p>ticul>ly 9 ! fir/ sev]al days aft] ! ev5t1 b w\ld resume s]vice ov] a few weeks to mon?s4 ,! pr9cipal difficulty w\ld be ! greatly increas$ ne$ = ^! sy/ems 9 ! fir/ few days aft] ! ev5t1 :5 lifesav+ activities w\ld be p>am\nt4 ,portions ( ! ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area & ( ! ,los ,angeles ,area conta9 sub/antial conc5trations ( manufactur+ capacity = guid$ missiles & space vehicles1 semiconductors1 aircraft p>ts1 electronic comput+ equipm5t1 & airframes4 ,_! specific vuln]ability to ! po/ulat$ e>?quakes 0 n analyz$4 ,9 ! ev5t ( major damage1 h[ev]1 ! long-t]m impacts may be mitigat$ some:at by su* measures z ! use ( und]utiliz$ capacity locat$ else:]e1 sub/itution ( capacity f o!r indu/ries1 imports1 use ( o!r products1 & draw+-d[n ( inv5tories4 ,s9ce we h n rec5tly exp]i5c$ a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ! ,unit$ ,/ates1 !re are _m unkn[ns :i* mu/ be e/imat$ ) be/ judgm5t4 ,?is is true p>ticul>ly = ! response ( individuals z well z gov]nm5tal & o!r in/itutions4 ,popul> assumptions ( po/-disa/] behavior include antisocial behavior & ! ne$ = m>tial law1 ! breakd[n ( gov]nm5t in/itutions1 & ! requirem5t = ! quick ass]tion ( outside lead]%ip & control4 ,practical exp]i5ce & field /udies ( disa/]s1 h[ev]1 indicate t ^! assumptions are n necess>ily correct4 ,on ! contr>y1 ! impacts ( ! disa/] commonly produce a s5se ( solid>ity & coop]ativ5ess among ! survivors4 ,none!less1 ! p]ception rema9s among em]g5cy response (ficials t !re w be an increas$ ne$ = law en=cem5t foll[+ ! ev5t4 ,ano!r major unkn[n involves :e!r a m$ium or %ort-t]m w>n+ ( ! ev5t w\ld be possible & h[ su* a w>n+ c\ld be utiliz$ mo/ effectively4 ,! te*nology = e>?quake pr$iction is 9 an e>ly /age ( developm5t &1 !re=e x is problematical t rese>*]s w succe$ 9 issu+ a %ort-t]m w>n+ be=e a cata/rophic e>?quake1 %\ld ! ev5t occur 9 ! next few ye>s4 ,yet z rese>* progresses1 sci5tifically-bas$1 int]m$iate-t]m w>n+s are possible1 b subject to a high degree ( unc]ta9ty4 ,consequ5tly1 response prep>ations mu/ be made = bo? an e>?quake )\t w>n+1 & "o ) a %ort-or int]m$iate-t]m w>n+1 possibly ) a significant level ( unc]ta9ty4 ,e4 ,,capability ,,= ,,response ,plann+ = response to a l>ge-scale disa/] is a complicat$ process encompass+ _m v>iables su* z population d5sities & di/ribution *>act]i/ics2 l&-use patt]ns & con/ruction te*niques2 geographical configurations2 vuln]ability ( transportation2 communications & o!r lifel9e sy/ems2 complex response op]ations2 long-t]m physical1 social1 & economic recov]y policies4 ,^! factors1 toge!r ) ! realization t an e>?quake has ! pot5tial = be+ ! greate/ s+le-ev5t cata/rophe 9 ,cali=nia1 make x incumb5t ^u ! ,/ate to ma9ta9 z high a level ( em]g5cy read9ess z is practicable1 & to provide guidance & assi/ance to local jurisdictions desir+ to plan & prep>e = su* ev5ts4 ,annex #b reviews ! g5]al nature ( prep>$ness plann+ & ! basic *>act]i/ics ( ,cali=nia & ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t plans4 ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local em]g5cy response capabilities are judg$ to be adequate = mod]ate e>?quakes--^? t are mo/ likely to occur frequ5tly 9 ,cali=nia & cause prop]ty damage 9 ! range ( #a billion4 ,su* an ev5t1 h[ev]1 w\ld sev]ely tax exi/+ res\rces & provide a major te/ ( managem5t relation%ips among diff]5t gov]nm5tal levels4 ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local (ficials1 h[ev]1 are quick to po9t out s]i\s %ortcom+s 9 _! ability to respond to a cata/rophic e>?quake4 ,an analysis ( ! prep>$ness po/ure ( #fj local gov]nm5ts1 #cd ,cali=nia ,/ate organizations1 & #ag ,f$]al ag5cies1 c>ri$ out by ! ,cali=nia ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices 7,,oes7 & ,,fema1 indicates t response to su* an e>?quake w\ld become disorganiz$ & l>gely ineffective4 ,_m gov]nm5tal units h g5]aliz$ e>?quake response plans1 "s h tailor$ e>?quake plans1 & sev]al plans are regul>ly ex]cis$4 ,! coord9ation ( ^! plans among jurisdictions1 ag5cies1 & levels ( gov]nm5t1 h[ev]1 is inadequate4 ,9 addition1 ! pot5tial = pr$iction is n incorporat$2 long-t]m recov]y issues are n consid]$2 & communications problems are significant1 z discuss$ above4 ,ov]all1 ,f$]al prep>$ness is defici5t at ?is "t4 ,e>ly reaction to a cata/rophic ev5t w\ld likely be *>act]iz$ by delays1 ineffective response1 & ineffectively coord9at$ deliv]y ( support4 ,,fema ,region ,,ix 7,san ,francisco7 has draft$ an ,e>?quake ,response ,plan = ! ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,annex #b gives an ov]view ( ?is draft plan4 ,?is is a site-specific plan = response to pot5tial cata/rophic e>?quake occurr5ces4 ,! em]g5cy response portion relies ^u a dec5traliz$ approa* :i* provides = ,f$]al disa/] support activities to be assign$ to select$ ,f$]al ag5cies by mission assignm5t lett]s4 ,no specific plans h be5 prep>$ 9 ?is detail = o!r seismic risk areas1 al?\gh x is expect$ t ! ,bay ,area plan c\ld be easily adapt$ to o!r areas4 ,! ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se & ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,transportation are develop+ detail$ e>?quake plans t w\ld ensure a well-organiz$ & adequate response to mission assignm5ts = a major e>?quake4 ,! plans ( o!r ag5cies ne$ fur!r developm5t4 ,v significant capabilities to assi/ 9 em]g5cy response exi/ )9 ! ,cali=nia ,national ,gu>d1 ,cali=nia ,highway ,patrol1 ! ,dep>tm5ts ( ,heal? ,s]vices & ,transportation1 & ! ,u4,s4 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se4 ,capabilities exi/ = su* lifesav+ activities z a]ial reconnaissance1 se>* & rescue1 em]g5cy m$ical s]vices1 em]g5cy con/ruction & repair1 communications1 & em]g5cy h\s+ & food4 ,curr5t e/imates by bo? ,f$]al & ,/ate (ficials1 h[ev]1 indicate t at lea/ #f to #h h\rs w\ld be requir$ be=e p]sonnel & equipm5t c be mobiliz$ & beg9 initial deploym5t to ! affect$ area4 ,dur+ ! p]iod be=e ! arrival ( significant outside assi/ance critical to ! sav+ ( lives 7especially ( ^? trapp$ 9 collaps$ build+s71 ! public w\ld be =c$ to rely l>gely ^u its own res\rces = se>* & rescue1 fir/ aid1 & g5]al lifesav+ actions4 ,! curr5t level ( public prep>ation = ?is critical phase ( response c be describ$ z only m9imal4 ,mu* ( ! curr5t /ate ( prep>$ness arises f pa/ programs aim$ at a wide spectrum ( em]g5cies1 p>ticul>ly civil def5se aga9/ nucle> attack4 ,new or /r5g!n$ programs are ne$$ to enhance public prep>$ness4 ,,fema has rec5tly ent]$ into a coop]ative ef=t ) ,cali=nia ,/ate & local gov]nm5ts to prep>e an integrat$ prototype prep>$ness plan to respond to a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,s\!rn ,cali=nia or to a pr$iction ( su* an ev5t4 ,! plan's completion1 9 late #aiha1 promises to improve sub/antially ! /ate ( read9ess to respond to ! pr$iction & ! occurr5ce ( an e>?quake 9 t area & to provide a model :i* c\ld be appli$ to o!r e>?quake-prone regions ( ,cali=nia & ! re/ ( ! c\ntry4 ,f4 ,,f9d+s1 ,,issues1 ,,& ,,actions ,! ad hoc committee responsible = ?is review develop$ sev]al significant f9d+s relat$ to ! implications ( major e>?quakes 9 ,cali=nia & our capabilities to respond to !m4 ,x !n id5tifi$ major relevant issues rais$ by ^! f9d+s & caus$ a numb] ( actions to be tak54 ,a brief discussion ( ! results ( its review foll[s4 #a4 ,lead]%ip ,f9d+3 ,effective lead]%ip at all gov]nm5tal levels is ! s+le mo/ important factor ne$$ to improve ?is ,nation's prep>$ness = a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia4 ,! problem ( em]g5cy prep>$ness is sev]ely complicat$ because responsibilities = prep>ation & response cut across normal l9es ( au?ority4 ,fur!r complication arises f ! l>ge areal ext5t ( ! impacts expect$ f a major e>?quake1 affect+ lit]ally doz5s ( gov]nm5t entities4 ,! em]g5cy s]vices coord9ator at any level ( gov]nm5t is effective only to ! ext5t he or %e is back$ by ! political lead]%ip at t level4 ,?is is especially true :5 prep>$ness activities mu/ be done1 = ! mo/ "p1 )9 exi/+ res\rces4 ,city & c\nty (ficials mu/ increas+ly accept _! %>e ( ! responsibility = prep>$ness1 b commitm5t by ,/ate or ,f$]al lead]s is also ess5tial4 ,! g5]al t5d5cy among elect$ (ficials & ! public is to ignore ! exi/+ haz>d problem4 ,exp]i5ce1 h[ev]1 tea*es t effective response me*anisms mu/ be 9 place be=e ! disa/]2 !y _c be develop$ 9 ! "t ( crisis4 ,ov]com+ ?is apa?y & develop+ ! organizational arrangem5ts among ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local gov]nm5t & volunte] ag5cies--toge!r ) ! private sector & ! g5]al public w require1 above all1 lead]%ip4 ,issue3 ,! lead]%ip role ( ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t 9 prep>+ = a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia & h[ ?is lead]%ip role is to be ex]t$ require cl>ification4 ,action3 ,! ,presid5t has communicat$ ) ! ,gov]nor ( ,cali=nia to indicate ! results ( ?is review1 to express conc]n ab\t ! ne$ = coop]ative lead]%ip to prep>e = ! ev5t1 & to (f] to increase ! ,f$]al ef=t ) ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia & local gov]nm5ts 9 ! coop]ative und]tak+ to prep>e = a cata/rophic e>?quake4 ,he /ress$ t ! ,f$]al role is to supplem5t ! ef=t & res\rces ( ! ,/ate1 & t commitm5t ( significant ,f$]al res\rces w\ld be cont+5t ^u ! application ( significant ,/ate res\rces4 ,9 8 response to ! ,presid5t's communications1 ! ,gov]nor ( ,cali=nia und]scor$ ! ,/ate's read9ess to p>ticipate 9 ?is coop]ative ef=t & ann\nc$ 8 sign+ into law a measure t w\ld provide sub/antial ,/ate res\rces 7see annex #a74 ,a summ>y ( ! new law 7,a4,b4 #bbjb7 is conta9$ 9 annex #c4 #b4 ,managem5t ( ,prep>$ness & ,response ,activities ,f9d+3 ,prep>$ness mu/ be develop$ z a p>tn]%ip betwe5 ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local gov]nm5ts ) improvem5ts ne$$ at all levels1 z none h ! res\rces or au?orities to solve ! problem alone4 ,issue3 ,s9ce ! ,nation faces a v probable e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia sometime dur+ ! next #cj ye>s1 ,,fema %\ld provide ! necess>y lead]%ip1 managem5t1 & coord9ation requir$ to /r5g!n plann+ & prep>$ness )9 ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t1 z delegat$ "u ! ,national ,e>?quake ,haz>ds ,r$uction ,program ( #aigg & ! ,disa/] ,relief ,act ( #aigd4 ,9 ?is ef=t1 ,,fema requires ! support & assi/ance ( num]\s o!r ,f$]al ag5cies4 ,actions3 ,,fema is tak+ /eps to3 ,/r5g!n significantly its managem5t1 rese>*1 application1 & coord9ation functions1 z delegat$ "u ! ,national ,e>?quake ,haz>ds ,r$uction ,program & ,disa/] ,relief ,act4 ,lead o!r ag5cies 9 ! developm5t ( a compreh5sive prep>$ness /rategy detail+ specific objectives & assignm5ts1 & p]iodically monitor accompli%m5ts 9 meet+ assign$ responsibilities4 ,dep>tm5ts & ag5cies ) appropriate capabilities w provide ne$$ support to ,,fema 9 /r5g!n+ ,f$]al prep>$ness & haz>d mitigation programs4 ,issue3 ,a major defici5cy t has be5 id5tifi$ is ! pot5tial = delay foll[+ a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 process+ a reque/ = a ,presid5tial decl>ation ( a major disa/]1 & ! subsequ5t initiation ( full-scale ,f$]al support = lifesav+ actions4 ,! fir/ few h\rs are critical 9 sav+ ! lives ( p trapp$ 9 collaps$ build+s2 consequ5tly1 ?is is :5 ,f$]al support is ne$$ mo/4 ,decisions on po/-ev5t recov]y aspects ( ,f$]al assi/ance c be def]r$ until lifesav+ op]ations are und]way & suffici5t in=mation ab\t damage is 9 h&4 ,action3 ,,fema w develop & negotiate1 be=e ! ev5t1 an agreem5t ) ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia :i* w enable ! ,presid5t to decl>e a major disa/] & initiate full-scale ,f$]al support = lifesav+ & humanit>ian action )9 m9utes ( a cata/rophic e>?quake4 ,! agreem5t w def] resolution ( issues relat+ to long]-t]m re/oration & recov]y & simil> que/ions ) l>ge budget>y implications until adequate damage e/imates are available4 ,! ,executive ,bran* w ?us be able to arrive at an in=m$ decision4 ,issue3 ,significant improvem5ts 9 ! ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local capability = coord9ation ( op]ational response to a cata/rophic e>?quake are ne$$4 ,actions3 ,,fema & o!r appropriate ,f$]al ag5cies w increase _! ef=ts1 9 a p>tn]%ip ) appropriate ,/ate & local ag5cies & volunte] & private-sector organizations1 to3 ,complete developm5t & agreem5t on fully integrat$ e>?quake response plans = bo? ! ,san ,francisco & ,los ,angeles regions1 includ+ provision = pr$ict$ z well z unpr$ict$ e>?quakes1 build+ ^u ! exi/+ draft plan = ,san ,francisco4 ,e/abli% a small ,,fema /aff 9 ,cali=nia d$icat$ to ! coord9ation ( e>?quake prep>$ness plann+ & implem5tation4 ,develop improv$ me*anisms = ! coord9ation ( m$ical & mortu>y activities foll[+ a cata/rophic e>?quake4 ,id5tify & docum5t ! critical requirem5ts = em]g5cy communications--p>ticul>ly non-telephonic communications--among ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local ag5cies4 ,%ortfalls betwe5 critical requirem5ts & curr5t capabilities1 z well z rem$ial actions or recomm5d$ solutions = ea* w be id5tifi$ 9 accordance ) ! ,national ,plan = ,communications ,support 9 ,em]g5cies & ,major ,disa/]s4 ,?is review w include consid]ation ( us+ exi/+ satellite communications or a d$icat$ sy/em1 %\ld x be f\nd necess>y4 ,coop]atively conduct practice response ex]cises ) ,/ate & local (ficials t w prep>e (ficials & ! public = conditions t might be enc\nt]$ 9 a cata/rophic e>?quake & t w\ld reveal defici5cies 9 plann+4 ,issue3 ,improv+ ! curr5t inadequate prep>$ness ( ! public = a cata/rophic e>?quake requires a sub/antial increase 9 public in=mation & public aw>5ess4 ,al?\gh public in=mation is prim>ily a ,/ate1 local1 & private-sector responsibility1 ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t has a role z well4 ,because citiz5s w h no *oice b to rely l>gely ^u _! own res\rces 9 ! fir/ sev]al h\rs imm$iately foll[+ a cata/rophic e>?quake1 x is important t c]ta9 basic k ab\t lifesav+ measures be v widely dissem9at$4 ,action3 ,,fema w /imulate & "w ) ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia & o!r appropriate gr\ps to develop & publicize e>?quake aw>5ess1 haz>d mitigation te*niques1 specific po/-e>?quake actions to be tak51 includ+ fir/ aid1 & o!r p]t95t in=mation4 ,issue3 ,! possibility ( a cr$ible1 sci5tifically-bas$ pr$iction ( a cata/rophic e>?quake poses s]i\s *all5ges to gov]nm5t & our society4 ,! curr5t level ( sci5tific und]/&+ ( e>?quake pr$iction & ! available res\rces are su* t pres5t in/rum5tation ef=ts are direct$ t[>d rese>* r ?an ma9ta9+ ext5sive monitor+ networks = real-"t pr$iction4 ,! transition f rese>* to fully op]ational capability w require additional sci5tific und]/&+ z well z res\rces4 ,e>?quake pr$ictions are possible1 p]haps likely1 h[ev]1 f ! curr5t rese>* ef=t4 ,ev5 ) a significant level ( unc]ta9ty1 any sci5tifically cr$ible pr$iction t indicates a cata/rophic e>?quake is expect$ )9 ab\t #a ye> or less1 w require v difficult & consequ5tial decisions on ! "p ( elect$ (ficials at all levels ( gov]nm5t4 ,decisions may include su* possibilities z ! mobilization ( ,national ,gu>d & ,u4,s4 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se res\rces prior to ! ev5t1 ! imposition ( special proc$ures or drills at pot5tially haz>d\s facilities1 su* z nucle> reactors or dams1 ! condemnation or evacuation ( p>ticul>ly unsafe build+s ) ! subsequ5t ne$ = tempor>y h\s+1 & ! provisions ( special protection ( fragile inv5tories4 ,if ! pr$iction is correct & appropriate actions are tak51 ?\s&s ( lives c be sav$ & significant economic losses c be avoid$4 ,! co/s ( respond+ to a pr$iction may be sub/antial1 h[ev]1 & ! commitm5t ( res\rces und\bt$ly w h to be made 9 ! face ( consid]able unc]ta9ty & ev5 reluctance4 ,inde$1 ! possibility ( an inaccurate pr$iction mu/ be fac$ squ>ely4 ,actions3 ,,fema1 9 conjunction ) o!r appropriate ,f$]al ag5cies1 ,/ate & local gov]nm5ts1 & volunte] & private-sector organizations1 w increase its actions to develop proc$ures = respond+ to a cr$ible1 sci5tific e>?quake pr$iction1 includ+3 ,id5tification ( con/ructive & prud5t actions to be tak5 ,analysis ( ! co/s & b5efits ( v>i\s alt]native actions ,id5tification ( roles & responsibilities 9 decid+ :i* actions %\ld be implem5t$ & by :om ,crit]ia = evaluat+ circum/ances :5 ! provision ( ,f$]al assi/ance w\ld be appropriate ,! ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey ( ! ,dep>tm5t ( ! ,int]ior w3 ,ma9ta9 a s\nd & well-balanc$ program ( rese>* 9 e>?quake pr$iction & haz>d assessm5t bas$ ^u a c>efully consid]$ /rategic plan ,"w ) ,/ate & local (ficials & ,,fema to develop improv$ me*anisms = ! transmission ( e>?quake pr$ictions & relat$ in=mation1 & to plan = ! utilization ( ! capability = e>?quake pr$iction #c4 ,res\rces ,f9d+3 ,:ile lead]%ip & managem5t are ess5tial +r$i5ts to a*ieve an adequate e>?quake prep>$ness po/ure1 ! availability ( adequate /aff+ & res\rces at all levels ( gov]nm5t det]m9es ! efficacy ( ag5cy programs & initiatives4 ,9 _m ag5cies1 e>?quake prep>$ness has be5 accord$ a l[ priority 9 _! programs4 ,?is is a manife/ation ( a m g5]al problem ( m9imal ag5cy res\rce allocation to em]g5cy prep>$ness4 ,! results ( ! actions t h be5 indicat$ w be limit$ unless additional res\rces are made available4 ,issue3 ,additional res\rces %\ld be provid$ z necess>y to accel]ate ! e>?quake haz>d mitigation & prep>$ness activities "u ! ,national ,e>?quake ,haz>ds ,r$uction ,program4 ,action3 ,,fema has reassess$ its priorities & is allocat+ res\rces to increase ! /aff+1 fund+1 & managem5t att5tion & direction = e>?quake haz>ds mitigation1 includ+ prep>ations = a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia4 ,?is includes an increase ( /aff res\rces 9 ,,fema ,region ,,ix = ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local coord9ation ( plann+1 prep>$ness1 & mitigation4 ,res\rce ne$s t _c be fully met by ! reassessm5t & reallocation = ,fiscal ,ye> #aiha %\ld be id5tifi$ & ju/ifi$ along ) ne$s = ,fiscal ,ye> #aihb 9 ! c\rse ( ! budget submissions = ,fiscal ,ye> #aihb4 ,to facilitate an adequate & balanc$ response by o!r ,f$]al ag5cies1 ,,fema w provide timely guidance to o!r ag5cies on specific priorities = ?is ef=t 9 relation to o!r major prep>$ness goals4 ,! ,(fice ( ,managem5t & ,budget & ! ,(fice ( ,sci5ce & ,te*nology ,policy w "w toge!r to develop a cross-ag5cy rank+ ( budget>y res\rces = e>?quake prep>$ness = ,fiscal ,ye> #aihb4 ,,*apt] ,,ii ,,geologic ,,e>?quake ,,sc5>ios ,a4 ,,major ,,ev5ts ,= purposes ( assess+ ! consequ5ces ( a major ,cali=nia e>?quake1 sc5>ios = sev5 l>ge e>?quakes 7 develop$4 ,! sc5>ios depict expectable e>?quakes t c\ld sev]ely impact on ! major population c5t]s ( ,cali=nia4 ,9 ea* case !y are repres5tative ( only "o possible magnitude ( e>?quake t c\ld occur on ! indicat$ fault sy/em4 ,on ea* fault sy/em !re is a great] probability ( "o or m damag+ e>?quakes ( some:at small] magnitude ?an ! po/ulat$ ev5t4 ,! po/ulat$ e>?quakes are li/$ 9 ! foll[+ table4 ,,table #a ,,major ,,cali=nia ,,e>?quakes ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,curr5t ,annual ,likelihood ,probability ( ( ,occurr5ce ,ri*t] ,occurr5ce 9 ,next ,region ,fault ,sy/em ,magnitude#a 7,p]c5t7 #bj-cj ,ye>s ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,los ,angeles- ,s\!rn ,san ,b]n>d9o ,san ,&reas #h4c #b-e ,high ,san ,francisco ,nor!rn ,bay ,area ,san ,&reas #h4c #a ,mod]ate ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area ,hayw>d #g4d #a ,mod]ate ,los ,angeles ,newport- ,mod]ate ,+lewood #g4e #j4a -,l[ ,san ,diego ,rose ,canyon #g4j #j4ja ,l[ ,riv]side ,mod]ate- ,san ,b]n>d9o ,cucamonga #f4h #j4a ,l[ ,los ,angeles ,santa ,monica #f4g #j4ja ,l[ ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- #a ,?is is ! e/imat$ l>ge/ magnitude e>?quake expect$ at a reasonable level ( probability4 ,! ma9 %ock c be expect$ to be foll[$ by l>ge aft]%ocks ov] a p]iod ( weeks or long]4 ,ea* l>ge aft]%ock w\ld be capable ( produc+ additional significant damage & hamp]+ disa/] assi/ance op]ations4 ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,^! e>?quake sc5>ios repres5t ! l>ge/ magnitude ev5ts e/imat$ on ! basis ( a v>iety ( geologic assumptions4 ,! appropriat5ess ( ^! assumptions dep5ds on ! int5t ( ! analysis & ! /ate ( geologic k4 ,!re=e1 ! result+ e/imates may n be appropriate = o!r purposes1 su* z ! developm5t ( seismic design crit]ia = a specific site4 ,! developm5t ( su* crit]ia commonly requires detail$ analyses ( ! site & its imm$iate geologic environm5t beyond ! scope ( ?is report4 ,consequ5tly1 detail$ site analyses may require modification ( ! conclusions rea*$ 9 ?is report1 p>ticul>ly fault sy/ems o!r ?an ! ,san ,&reas & ,hayw>d faults4 ,b4 ,,geologic ,,evid5ce ,"s ( ! possible e>?quakes li/$ are repeat occurr5ces ( hi/orical ev5ts1 o!rs are n1 b geologic evid5ce indicates t e>?quakes occurr$ on ^! faults be=e settlem5t ( ! region4 ,bas$ on available data1 ! po/ulat$ e>?quake magnitudes w\ld be ! l>ge/ ev5ts t c\ld be expect$ at a reasonable level ( probability4 ,!y repres5t a selection ( ev5ts useful = plann+ purposes1 b are by no means ! only su* ev5ts likely to occur ei!r on ^! or o!r fault sy/ems4 ,! hi/oric record ( seismicity 9 ,cali=nia is too %ort to det]m9e confid5tly h[ (t5 l>ge e>?quakes reoccur4 ,in=mation on pa/ e>?quakes mu/ be glean$ f ! geologic record & !re=e1 pres5ts a picture ( pa/ seismicity t is incomplete & n yet fully deciph]$4 ,curr5t k ab\t ! recurr5ce ( l>ge e>?quakes on specific faults is rudim5t>y4 ,! probabilities ( occurr5ce %[n above are ord]-(-magnitude e/imates & subject to consid]able unc]ta9ty1 especially = ! less probable ev5ts4 ,c4 ,,description ,,( ,,ev5ts ,foll[+ are brief descriptions ( po/ulat$ ev5ts4 ,figure #a gives _! geographic location4 #a4 ,los ,angeles-,san ,b]n>d9o_/,s\!rn ,san ,&reas ,fault 7,magnitude #h4c7 ,= ! pa/ sev]al ?\s& ye>s1 great e>?quakes h be5 occurr+ ov] a #cjj km l5g? ( ! ,san ,&reas fault approximately e #ajj to #bjj ye>s1 #adj ye>s on ! av]age4 ,! la/ su* ev5t took place 9 #aheg4 ,! probability ( occurr5ce ( ?is e>?quake is e/imat$ to be curr5tly z l>ge z #b to #e p]c5t p] ye> & great] ?an #ej p]c5t 9 ! next #cj ye>s4 ,! fault skirts ! edge ( ! ,los ,angeles-,san ,b]n>d9o metropolitan region1 ?us mo/ ( ! urbaniz$ area lies fur!r ?an #bj miles f ! s\rce ( /rong %ak+4 ,because ( ! di/ance1 %ak+ w\ld be m haz>d\s = l>ge /ructures ?an = "o- to two-/ory h\ses4 ,! long duration ( %ak+ c\ld trigg] num]\s slides on /eep slopes & cause liquefaction 9 isolat$ areas4 #b4 ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area_/,nor!rn ,san ,&reas ,fault 7,magnitude #h4c7 ,a repeat occurr5ce ( ! #aijf e>?quake1 9 :i* ! ,san ,&reas fault broke ov] #djj km ( its l5g?1 w\ld cause sev]e damage to /ructures ?r\gh\t ! ,bay ,area & adjac5t regions4 ,! ext5sive urban developm5t on l[l&s & l&fill ar\nd ,san ,francisco ,bay w\ld be especially h>d hit & liquefaction 9 _m ( ^! areas w\ld int5sify ! damage to /ructures erect$ on !m4 #c4 ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area_/,hayw>d ,fault 7,magnitude #g4d7 ,! la/ l>ge ev5ts to occur on ?is fault 7 9 #ahcf & #ahfh4 ,%\ld a major e>?quake occur1 sev]e gr\nd %ak+ & liquefaction is expect$ to cause damage ?r\gh\t ! entire circum-bay area ne>ly z sev]e z t result+ f a #aijf-type e>?quake on ! ,san ,&reas fault4 ,?is e>?quake w\ld be ( p>ticul> conc]n because ( ! _m dams locat$ along or ne> ! fault4 #d4 ,los ,angeles_/,newport-,+lewood ,fault 7,magnitude #g4e7 ,?is e>?quake w\ld be a s]i\s ?reat to ! ne>by1 d5sely-populat$ areas ( ,los ,angeles4 ,%ak+ w\ld cause ext5sive /ructural damage ?r\gh\t ! ,los ,angeles ,bas9 & liquefaction ne> ! coa/ w\ld add /ill m de/ruction4 #e4 ,san ,diego ,area_/,rose ,canyon ,fault 7,magnitude #g4j7 ,?is fault--a segm5t ( an active zone ( faults ext5d+ f ! ,newport-,+lewood fault to ,nor!rn ,mexico--w\ld pres5t ! greate/ e>?quake risk to ! ,san ,diego area4 ,sev]e damage due to %ak+ & liquefaction c\ld be expect$ 9 ! coa/al areas4 ,because ( un/able sea-b$ s$im5ts 9 ! (f%ore area1 local tsunamis 7tidal waves7 are possible4 #f4 ,los ,angeles_/,santa ,monica ,fault 7,magnitude #f4g & #g4j7 & ,riv]side_/,san ,b]n>d9o_/,cucamonga ,fault 7,magnitude #f4h7 ,^! faults are "p ( a sy/em ( ea/-we/ t5d+ faults bord]+ ! nor!rn edge ( ! ,los ,angeles bas94 ,?is fault sy/em caus$ ! #aiga ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake & is geologically simil> to ! sy/em t g5]at$ ! l>ge #aieb ,k]n ,c\nty e>?quake4 ,al?\gh small] 9 magnitude ?an ! e>?quakes previ\sly describ$1 ^! po/ulat$ ev5ts are pot5tially q dang]\s because ( _! vic9ity to high population d5sities 9 ,s\!rn ,cali=nia4 ,d4 ,,e>?quake ,,effects ,detail$ maps 7 prep>$ = ea* ev5t %[+ qualitative e/imates ( gr\nd %ak+ int5sity result+ f ea* e>?quake4 ,^! e/imates are indicative ( ! g5]al sev]ity ( damage to ord9>y /ructures4 ,empirical =mulae provid+ quantitative e/imates ( peak gr\nd motion at v>i\s di/ances f ! po/ulat$ e>?quakes 7 develop$ = use 9 ! effects ( sev]e gr\nd %ak+ on individual /ructures or critical facilities4 ,no e/imates 7 made ( localiz$ effects1 su* z gr\nd failures relat$ to liquefaction 7! complete failure or loss ( /r5g?1 ( a saturat$ soil due to %ak+71 l&slides1 & fault rupture4 ,^! effects c be f> m de/ructive ?an gr\nd %ak+ alone4 ,illu/ration3 ,figure #a4 ,geographic ,locations ( ,select$ ,regional ,ev5ts ,,*apt] ,,iii ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,losses ,,= ,,select$ ,,pot5tial ,,cali=nia ,,e>?quakes ,a4 ,,introduction ,z "p ( a program t ,,fema & its pr$ecessor ag5cies h _h und]way = a numb] ( ye>s1 prop]ty loss & casualty e/imates 7 prep>$ 9 #aigb & #aigc = a numb] ( pot5tial maximum cr$ible e>?quakes t c\ld impact on ! ,san ,francisco & ! ,los ,angeles areas--,nor? ,san ,&reas 7,ri*t] magnitude #h4c71 ,hayw>d 7,ri*t] magnitude #g4d71 ,s\? ,san ,&reas 7,ri*t] magnitude #h4c71 & ,newport-,+lewood 7,ri*t] magnitude #g4e74 ,^! e/imates h n[ be5 updat$ z "p ( ! curr5t assessm5t4 ,e/imates ( prop]ty loss & casualties are bas$ on ! expect$ type & di/ribution ( damage = ea* po/ulat$ e>?quake z det]m9$ by ! size & location ( ! e>?quake & ! di/ribution & "* ( ! build+s & /ructures )9 ! affect$ area4 ,me?odologies = e/imates ( ?is type are approximate at be/4 ,consequ5tly1 ! figures %[n bel[ may v>y upw>d or d[nw>d by z mu* z a factor ( two or ?ree4 ,?is degree ( unc]ta9ty does n affect ! validity ( ! conclusions ( ?is report1 h[ev]1 s9ce !re are great] unc]ta9ties 9 all o!r aspects ( em]g5cy response plann+4 ,b4 ,,prop]ty ,,loss ,,e/imates ,! prop]ty loss e/imates 7 obta9$ by fir/ e/imat+ ! total replacem5t doll> value ( build+s & _! cont5ts1 multiply+ !m by p]c5tage loss factors 7inf]r$ f ! anticipat$ /r5g? ( %ak+ 9 ea* c\nty71 & !n summ+ to obta9 ! aggregate loss4 ,includ$ 9 ! e/imates are private z well z ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local gov]nm5t build+s1 insur$ & un9sur$4 ,exclud$ f consid]ation is ! replacem5t value ( transportation & communication facilities1 dams1 utility in/allations1 & special purpose /ructures 7e4g41 conv5tion c5t]s & sports ar5as74 ,also exclud$ is ! pot5tial damage result+ f a major dam failure or ! indirect doll> losses due to su* factors z high] unemploym5t1 l[] tax rev5ue1 r$uc$ productivity1 & /oppage ( indu/rial production4 ,exp]i5ce indicates t indirect losses c\ld be approximately equal to ! doll> am\nts lo/ 9 build+s & _! cont5ts4 ,! prop]ty loss e/imates = f\r po/ulat$ e>?quakes on ! faults li/$ bel[ are z foll[s4 ,,table #b ,,e/imates ,,( ,,prop]ty ,,losses ,,= ,,repres5tative ,,e>?quakes#a ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,loss to ,loss ( ,build+ ,cont5ts ,total ,loss ,fault 7 9 ,billions7 7 9 ,billions7 7 9 ,billions7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,nor!rn ,san ,&reas #be #ac #ch ,hayw>d #bi #ae #dd ,newport-,+lewood #de #bd #fi ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas #aa #f #ag ---------- #a ,unc]ta9 by a possible factor ( two to ?ree4 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,c4 ,,casualty ,,e/imates ,dea?s & injuries 9 ^! e>?quakes pr9cipally w\ld occur f failures ( man-made /ructures1 p>ticul>ly old]1 multi/ory1 & unre9=c$ brick masonry build+s built be=e ! in/itution ( e>?quake-resi/ant build+ codes4 ,exp]i5ce has %[n t "s mod]n multi/ory build+s--con/ruct$ z rec5tly z ! late #aifj's1 b n adequately design$ or con/ruct$ to meet ! curr5t und]/&+ ( requirem5ts = seismic resi/ance--are also subject to failure4 ,consequ5tly1 ! numb] ( fatalities w be /rongly influ5c$ by ! numb] ( p]sons )9 high-occupancy build+s1 capable ( collaps+1 or by failure ( o!r critical facilities su* z dams4 ,additional impond]ables are ! degree ( saturation ( ! gr\nd at ! "t ( ! ev5t & ! possibility ( wea!r conditions conducive to ! spread ( fire4 ,a conflagration su* z occurr$ 9 ! #aijf ,san ,francisco e>?quake1 is n consid]$ likely to occur 9 any ( ! analyz$ ev5ts1 h[ev]1 because ( improvem5ts 9 fire resi/ance ( con/ruction & firefight+ te*niques4 ,none!less1 num]\s small] fires mu/ be anticipat$ 9 any ( ! analyz$ ev5ts & a ,santa ,ana type w9d c\ld cause s]i\s problems4 ,an additional elem5t ( unc]ta9ty 9 e/imat+ casualties f e>?quake /ems f n kn[+ :]e mo/ ( ! population w be at ! "t ( ! e>?quake4 ,9 ! e>ly morn+ 7i4e41 #b3cj a4m47 mo/ p are at home1 by f> ! safe/ environm5t dur+ a seismic em]g5cy4 ,at #b3jj 9 ! aft]noon1 on ! o!r h&1 ! majority ( p are at _! places ( employm5t & !re=e vuln]able to collapse ( (fice build+s4 ,ar\nd #d3cj p4m4 _m m p are 9 ! /reets & ?us subject to injury due to fall+ debris or failures ( transportation sy/ems4 ,consequ5tly1 dep5d+ on ! "t ( day1 wide v>iations 9 ! numb] ( casualties c be expect$4 ,foll[+ are e/imates ( dead & injur$ 7requir+ hospitalization7 = ea* ( ! f\r repres5tative faults & = ! ?ree "t p]iods j discuss$4 ,,table #c ,,e/imates ,,( ,,casualties#a ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,fault ,"t ,dead ,hospitaliz$#b ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,nor!rn ,san ,&reas #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ab1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #aj1jjj #cg1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #aa1jjj #dd1jjj ,hayw>d #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ac1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #h1jjj #cj1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #g1jjj #bg1jjj ,s\!rn ,san ,&reas #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ab1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #ab1jjj #ej1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #ad1jjj #ee1jjj ,newport-,+lewood #b3cj a4m4 #d1jjj #ah1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #ba1jjj #hc1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #bc1jjj #ia1jjj ---------- #a ,unc]ta9 by a possible factor ( two to ?ree4 #b ,injuries n requir+ hospitalization are e/imat$ to be f #ae to #cj times ! numb] ( dea?s4 ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,d4 ,,ov]view ,,( ,,o!r ,,types ,,( ,,damage ,= ?is assessm5t1 e/imates ( damage to sub/antial numb]s ( diff]5t type facilities ess5tial to ! imm$iate response capability 7 updat$4 ,e>?quakes associat$ ) ! same f\r major fault sy/ems id5tifi$ e>li] 9 ?is *apt] 7 us$ z a basis = ^! e/imates4 ,! types ( facilities analyz$ includ$ hospitals1 m$ical supply /orages1 blood banks1 & cu/odial c>e homes1 toge!r ) _! ess5tial s]vices & p]sonnel res\rces4 ,al?\gh new] hospitals 9 ,cali=nia are be+ built accord+ to sub/antially improv$ seismic safety /&>ds & practices1 old] hospital facilities c be expect$ to be poorly resi/ant to e>?quakes4 ,among resid5tial build+s1 s+le family homes are expect$ to suff] /ructural damage & loss ( cont5ts4 ,damage to multifamily dwell+s--p>ticul>ly old] build+s--w\ld1 9 all likelihood1 be m ext5sive4 ,analysis ( expect$ damage indicates t tempor>y h\s+ = z _m z #bjj1jjj families might be ne$$--a requirem5t call+ = c>eful plann+ & exceptional managem5t skills4 ,s*ools are judg$ to be among ! safe/ facilities expos$ to ! e>?quakes4 ,s9ce passage ( ! ,field ,act 9 #aicc1 aft] ! ,long ,bea* e>?quake1 s*ool build+s 9 ,cali=nia h be5 cont9u\sly improv$ to )/& seismic haz>ds4 ,z a result ( cont9u+ & sub/antial upgrad+ ( design & con/ruction practices 9 ! pa/ #aj ye>s1 dams & res]voirs c be expect$ to %[ an improv$ p]=mance 9 an e>?quake4 ,none!less1 on a cont+5cy basis1 "o dam failure might be assum$ = ea* plann+ ef=t4 ,realiz+ ! fact t #hd key communications facilities1 e>? /ations1 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se voice & data swit*es1 comm]cial transoceanic cable heads1 ,f$]al ,telecommunications ,sy/em swit*es1 & major direct di/ance dial swit*es are locat$ )9 #ee miles ( ei!r ,los ,angeles or ,san ,francisco1 damage mu/ be expect$ to occur4 ,) ?is realization1 priorities h be5 assign$ to all critical circuits transit+ ! key facilities1 bas$ on e/abli%$ crit]ia ( criticality ( s]vice cont9uity4 ,national w>n+ sy/ems circuitry1 comm& & control circuits1 & circuits support+ diplomatic negotiations 7( :i* a high conc5tration exi/s 9 ,cali=nia7 are examples ( ^? circuits c>ry+ high-re/oration priority4 ,9 ! civil sector !re w\ld be #bd to #gb h\rs ( m9imal communications1 ) a possible black\t ( telephonic communications 9 ! area imm$iately foll[+ an e>?quake4 ,! comm]cial c>ri]s w\ld in/itute network control proc$ures to rega9 control ( ! situation z fa/ z possible4 ,! impact on transportation facilities 9 any ( ! f\r hypo!siz$ e>?quakes c\ld be massive4 ,s9ce ! magnitude & sev]ity is unprec$5t$ 9 rec5t ye>s1 conclusions reg>d+ losses mu/ be accept$ z t5tative4 ,z 9 ! case ( hospitals1 h[ev]1 ! lessons le>n$ 9 e>?quakes dur+ ! pa/ #aj ye>s are be+ incorporat$ 9 ! design & con/ruction ( new facilities4 ,9 g5]al1 all major transportation modes w\ld be affect$--highways1 /reets1 ov]passes & bridges1 mass transit sy/ems1 railroads1 airports1 pipel9es1 & ocean t]m9als1 al?\gh major v>iances 9 losses are expect$ among ! modes4 ,f a purely /ructural /&po9t1 ! m rigid or elevat$ sy/ems 7su* z railroads & pipel9es7 :i* cross major faults on an ea/-we/ axis w\ld incur ! heavie/ damage1 ) initial losses approa*+ #ajj p]c5t4 ,o!r major sy/ems 7su* z highways1 airports1 & pile-support$ pi]s at wat] t]m9als7 h bett] survivability *>act]i/ics & !re=e w\ld f>e mu* bett]1 ) damage g5]ally 9 ! mod]ate range ( #ae to #cj p]c5t4 ,^! transportation facility loss e/imates are /at$ 9 t]ms ( imm$iate po/-quake effects4 ,!y d n reflect ! impact ( priority em]g5cy recov]y ef=ts & exp$i5t alt]natives t are available1 "s )9 h\rs1 to aid 9 re/oration ( transportation capacity4 ,9 addition1 transportation sy/ems g5]ally h an inh]5tly significant degree ( r$undancy & flexibility4 ,consequ5tly1 an unquantifi$ b significant movem5t capability 9 all transport modes is expect$ to survive4 ,f9ally1 ^! loss e/imates d n take into acc\nt ! "q ( availability ( ess5tial support+ res\rces1 p>ticul>ly petroleum fuels1 electricity1 & communications4 ,9 ! initial response phase1 ^! c\ld prove to be ! mo/ limit+ factors 9 ! capability ( ! transportation sy/em4 ,bus9ess & indu/ry w\ld be affect$ by damage to (fice build+s1 plants1 & o!r support facilities4 ,al?\gh ! #aiga ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake occurr$ on ! m>g9 ( a l>gely suburban area1 indu/rial facilities incurr$ significant damage4 ,= example1 sev]al build+s ( ! k9d commonly us$ = light indu/ry or w>eh\ses suff]$ f collaps$ ro(s or walls4 ,g5]ally1 build+ codes d n apply to special indu/rial facilities1 & ! ability ( ^! /ructures to resi/ e>?quake %ak+ w dep5d l>gely on ! =esight ( ! design eng9e]4 ,= example1 a major electrical p[] swit*+ y>d & a wat] filtration plant 7 s]i\sly damag$ 9 ! #aiga ,san ,f]n&o e>?quake4 ,ab\t #aj p]c5t ( ! population & indu/rial res\rces ( ! ,nation are locat$ 9 ,cali=nia4 ,ov] #he p]c5t ( ^! res\rces 7or ab\t #h4e p]c5t ( ! ,nation's total7 are locat$ 9 ! #ba ,cali=nia c\nties t are subject to ! possibility ( damage f a major e>?quake4 ,mu* ( ! a]ospace & electronics indu/ry is c5t]$ 9 ,cali=nia4 ,= example1 ab\t #ef p]c5t ( ! guid$ missiles & space vehicles1 #dj p]c5t ( ! semiconductors1 #be p]c5t ( ! electronic comput] equipm5t1 & approximately #ba p]c5t ( ! optical in/rum5ts & l5ses manufactur$ 9 ! ,nation are manufactur$ 9 ^! #ba c\nties4 ,! probability t all ^! c\nties w\ld be affect$ by "o e>?quake is extremely remote2 yet ! significant conc5tration ( key indu/ries rema9s a conc]n4 ,= example1 ab\t #be p]c5t ( ! ,nation's semiconductors are manufactur$ 9 ,santa ,cl>a ,c\nty1 an area along ! ,nor!rn ,san ,&res fault t suff]$ v heavy damage 9 ! #aijf ,san ,francisco e>?quake4 ,e/imates ( damage to ^! indu/rial facilities & ! result+ loss ( production h n be5 made4 ,simil>ly1 ! result+ impact ( possible damage to national production has n be5 adequately analyz$4 ,f$]ally regulat$ f9ancial in/itutions 7 g5]ically analyz$ to det]m9e _! ability to cont9ue to promote ess5tial s]vices 9 ! ev5t ( a major e>?quake l ^? t h be5 po/ulat$ = ?is assessm5t4 ,! conclusion rea*$ ?us f> is t l>ge-magnitude e>?quakes pose no significant or unanticipat$ problems ( solv5cy & liquidity = su* in/itutions4 ,! ,f$]al ,res]ve ,sy/em & o!r regulatory entities h proc$ures 9 place t are design$--& h be5 te/$--specifically to provide = ! cont9u$ op]ation ( f9ancial in/itutions imm$iately foll[+ an e>?quake or o!r em]g5cy4 ,,*apt] ,,iv ,,an ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,! ,,curr5t ,,/ate ,,( ,,read9ess ,,capability ,,( ,,f$]al1 ,,/ate1 ,,& ,,local ,,gov]nm5ts ,,= ,,e>?quake ,,response ,a4 ,,introduction ,an e>?quake ( cata/rophic magnitude1 ) or )\t cr$ible w>n+1 happ5s sudd5ly4 ,! pot5tial = disa/]1 h[ev]1 does n occur sudd5ly4 ,! degree ( prep>$ness & commitm5t to compreh5sive plann+ & mitigation programs = ! inevitable ev5t w l>gely det]m9e ! degree ( h>d%ip to be exp]i5c$ ?r\gh loss ( life1 human suff]+1 prop]ty de/ruction1 & ! o!r relat$ economic1 social1 & psy*ological aspects ( disruption to day-to-day community activities4 ,! impacts c be r$uc$ sub/antially f curr5t expect$ levels ?r\gh ! developm5t & implem5tation ( improv$ & m widely practic$ e>?quake haz>ds r$uction measures4 ,^! include coord9at$ em]g5cy prep>$ness plans & proc$ures1 e>?quake pr$iction & w>n+ sy/ems1 improv$ con/ruction te*niques1 & effective public education & in=mation programs4 ,! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices 7,,oes7 & ,,fema conduct$ an analysis ( ! read9ess capability = pot5tial cata/rophic e>?quakes 9 ,cali=nia at ! ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local gov]nm5t levels4 ,! plann+ ( #bb c\nties & #ch cities1 ( #cd ,/ate ag5cies1 & ( #ag ,f$]al organizations 7 review$ ) ! foll[+ objectives3 7a7 id5tify opportunities = improvem5t2 7b7 provide a basis = mak+ decisions t w\ld /r5g!n program direction & plann+ ef=ts2 & 7c7 specify res\rce ne$s & pot5tial legislative initiatives4 ,annex #b summ>izes curr5t ,f$]al & ,cali=nia e>?quake plann+4 ,! environm5t 9 :i* prep>$ness plann+ 9 ,cali=nia occurs is *>act]iz$ by ! foll[+ obs]vations ( public expectations & attitudes3 ,!re is widespread public support = gov]nm5t action4 ,mo/ p h "s ideas z to :at gov]nm5t %\ld be do+4 ,!re is und]/&+ ( ! ne$ = haz>d r$uction z well z em]g5cy response plann+4 ,p are will+1 9 ! ab/ract1 to h gov]nm5t funds sp5t = haz>d mitigation4 ,! public is n v satisfi$ ) :at gov]nm5t (ficials h done4 ,public (ficials p]ceive t curr5t prep>$ness plans & response are inadequate at be/4 ,z discuss$ bel[1 ! review indicates t all is n well 9 e>?quake plans & prep>$ness4 ,curr5t plans & prep>$ness are judg$ to be adequate = ! mod]ate e>?quakes mo/ likely to occur frequ5tly 9 ,cali=nia4 ,by mod]ate x is meant an ev5t caus+ prop]ty damage on ! ord] ( #a to #b billion4 ,su* an ev5t1 h[ev]1 w sev]ely tax exi/+ res\rces & provide a major te/ ( managem5t relation%ip among diff]5t gov]nm5tal jurisdictions & levels4 ,= a cata/rophic e>?quake1 curr5t plans & prep>$ness are cle>ly inadequate1 lead+ to a high likelihood t ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local response activities w\ld become disorganiz$ & l>gely fail to p]=m effectively = an ext5d$ p]iod ( "t4 ,b4 ,,/ate ,,& ,,local ,,response ,al?\gh !re are widely diff]+ approa*es1 local em]g5cy plann+ 9 ,cali=nia g5]ally consi/s ( a basic plan & a s]ies ( cont+5cy plans4 ,! basic plan e/abli%es ! au?ority1 sets =? ref]5ces1 addresses haz>d vuln]ability1 /ates ! plann+ assumptions1 e/abli%es an em]g5cy s]vices organization1 assigns tasks1 =mulates a mutual aid sy/em1 & directs ! developm5t ( specific support annexes4 ,= ^? haz>ds id5tifi$ 9 ! basic plan1 a sep>ate cont+5cy plan is !n develop$ to address ! unique nature ( ! haz>d\s ev5t4 ,! cont+5cy plan conta9s s]vice support plans = ea* ( ! functional op]ations1 includ+ detail$ /&>d op]at+ proc$ures4 ,! plann+ ef=ts ( local jurisdictions are coord9at$ ) adjac5t jurisdictions & ! ,cali=nia ,,oes = consi/5cy4 ,a plan is n consid]$ complete )\t ! support annexes :i* make ! plan op]ational4 ,! survey und]tak5 = ?is assessm5t disclos$ t approximately #ic p]c5t ( ! jurisdictions exam9$ h exi/+1 basic plans2 #ej p]c5t h complet$ annexes2 #bh p]c5t ( ! basic plans address$ an e>?quake haz>d vuln]ability2 #ce p]c5t h plann$ = e>?quake cont+5cy2 & only #a p]c5t 7"o city7 has a plan to respond to an e>?quake pr$iction4 ,at ! ,/ate level1 ! ,cali=nia ,,oes1 z an integral "p ( ! ,gov]nor's ,(fice1 functions z 8 imm$iate /aff & coord9at+ organization 9 c>ry+ out ! ,/ate's em]g5cy responsibilities4 ,specific em]g5cy assignm5ts h be5 made to #cd ,/ate ag5cies by ! ,,oes ,director ?r\gh a s]ies ( ,adm9i/rative ,ord]s4 ,dur+ em]g5cies ! activities ( ^! ag5cies & dep>tm5ts are coord9at$ by ! ,cali=nia ,,oes4 ,! ,/ate ,,oes is also responsible = ma9ta9+ & updat+ ! ,cali=nia ,em]g5cy ,plan 7,,cep7 & associat$ read9ess plans4 ,z 9 ! case ( local plans1 ! basic docum5t is support$ by op]ational annexes z li/$ bel[3 ,,cont+5cy ,,mutual ,,aid ,e>?quake ,fire & ,rescue ,e>?quake ,pr$iction ,law ,en=cem5t ,oil ,spill ,m$ical ,nucle> ,blackmail ,utilities ,reactor ,accid5t ,milit>y ,support ,radioactive ,mat]ial ,incid5t ,flood ,,support+ ,,sy/ems ,,em]g5cy ,,res\rces ,,managem5t ,w>n+ ,con/ruction & ,h\s+ ,em]g5cy ,broadca/ ,sy/em ,economic ,/abilization ,em]g5cy ,public ,in=mation ,food ,intellig5ce ,op]ations ,heal? ,radiological ,def5se ,indu/rial ,production ,manp[] ,petroleum ,telecommunications ,transportation ,utilities ,bas$ on ?is plann+ concept1 ! review assess$ quantitatively ! prep>$ness activities ( ! #cd ,/ate ag5cies t h prep>$ness responsibilities 9 accordance ) ! ,,cep4 ,! quantitative data are li/$ 9 ! foll[+ table4 ,,table #d ,,quantitative ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,/ate ,,prep>$ness ,,activities ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,numb] ( ,p]c5t ( ,prep>$ness ,elem5t ,ag5cies #cd ,ag5cies ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,exi/5ce ( ,plan #bb #fe ,conduct ( ,ex]cises #bg #gi ,public ,education ,activities #aj #bi ,public ,in=mation ,activities #i #bf ,op]ational ,capability #cb #id ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,! quality ( ! plans1 activities1 & op]ational capabilities 7 !n evaluat$ on a scale ( #a 7expect$ to fail_/inadequate7 to #e 7expect$ to succe$ well_/adequate74 ,! qualitative results are %[n bel[4 ,,table #e ,,qualitative ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,/ate ,,prep>$ness ,,activities ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,prep>$ness ,elem5t ,capability ,rat+ ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,plann+ #b4fg ,ex]cises #b4fd ,public ,education #a4dd ,public ,in=mation #a4ej ,op]ational ,capability #b4ia ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,x %\ld be emphasiz$ t ^! rat+s apply to ! ,/ate's pres5t level ( plann+ & prep>$ness = response to a major de/ructive e>?quake 7magnitude #h71 n a mod]ate 7,san ,f]n&o-type7 ev5t4 ,c4 ,,f$]al ,,response ,at ! ,f$]al level ! pr9cipal capability to respond to a cata/rophic e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia resides 9 ,,fema1 ! ag5cy responsible by law to coord9ate ,f$]al activities 9 all em]g5cies4 ,,fema has develop$ a basic plan = supplem5tal ,f$]al assi/ance = a major e>?quake 9 ! ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,?is plan1 h[ev]1 cov]s only ! em]g5cy phase ( response 7fir/ few days ( ef=ts to save lives & protect prop]ty74 ,9 addition1 ,,fema is p>ticipat+ 9 a broad] ef=t conc5trat+ 9 ,s\!rn ,cali=nia4 ,?is coop]ative ef=t is gett+ "u way ) ,/ate & local gov]nm5ts1 o!r ,f$]al dep>tm5ts1 volunt>y ag5cies1 practic+ pr(essions1 bus9ess & comm]cial int]e/s1 labor1 educators1 & rese>*]s4 ,x is expect$ to develop an effective program to respond to an e>?quake or a cr$ible e>?quake pr$iction 9 t "p ( ! ,/ate4 ,! emphasis is be+ plac$ on public safety1 r$uction ( prop]ty damage1 self-help on ! "p ( individuals1 socioeconomic impacts1 improv$ response & long-range recov]y plann+1 mitigation activities1 & public p>ticipation = bo? ! po/-pr$iction & imm$iate po/-e>?quake p]iods4 ,?is pilot ef=t is expect$ to be usable 9 o!r highly seismic areas ( ,cali=nia z well z 9 o!r ,/ates4 ,9 ! ev5t ( a cata/rophic e>?quake1 a sub/antial numb] ( ,f$]al ag5cies w\ld provide support to & be coord9at$ by ,,fema4 ,illu/rative are ! foll[+3 #a4 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se 7,,dod7 ,initially1 local milit>y comm&]s may provide necess>y support to save lives1 alleviate suff]+1 or mitigate prop]ty damage4 ,normally1 additional ,,dod res\rces w\ld n be committ$ until a presid5tial decl>ation ( an em]g5cy or major disa/]4 ,:5 ?is occurs1 ! ,secret>y ( ! ,army is ,,dod ,executive ,ag5t = milit>y support4 ,! ,comm&]1 ,six? ,u4,s4 ,army1 at ! ,presidio1 ,san ,francisco1 has be5 fur!r delegat$ au?ority to coord9ate disa/] relief op]ations 9 ! we/]n portion ( ! ,unit$ ,/ates4 ,ext5sive plann+ & coord9ation h tak5 place betwe5 ! ,six? ,u4,s4 ,army & ,,fema ,region ,,ix4 ,,dod em]g5cy functions include3 damage survey1 se>* & rescue1 em]g5cy m$ical c>e1 id5tification & disposition ( dead1 em]g5cy debris cle>ance1 em]g5cy roads & bridge con/ruction1 airfield repair1 & id5tification & demolition ( unsafe /ructures4 ,specific units h be5 id5tifi$ to respond to an e>?quake 9 any ( ! major population c5t]s ( ,cali=nia4 ,= example1 at ?is "t ! foll[+ units w\ld be prep>$ = commitm5t )9 #h h\rs aft] a disa/] is decl>$ by ! ,presid5t3 ,six m$ical units ) a #a1cbj b$ capacity ,sev5 helicopt] units ) #ij utility helicopt]s & #cf m$ium helicopt]s ,"o ,infantry brigade ( #a1ejj p]sonnel ,two eng9e] units ) #gh pieces ( heavy equipm5t ,two transportation units ) #abd c>go trucks & trail]s ,^! z well z additional ,,dod assets c\ld be made available1 cont+5t on def5se priorities4 #b4 ,! ,national ,communication ,sy/em ,?is ,ag5cy's plan1 ! ,national ,plan = ,communications ,support 9 ,em]g5cies & ,major ,disa/]s1 provides = plann+ & us+ national telecommunications assets & res\rces dur+ presid5tially decl>$ em]g5cies & major disa/]s4 ,! plan1 :i* has be5 ex]cis$ repeat$ly 9 pa/ disa/]s1 provides ! managem5t /ructure & ! communications /aff to support ,,fema4 ,re/oration priorities h be5 assign$ to all critical circuits4 #c4 ,dep>tm5t ( ,transportation 7,,dot7 ,,dot has e/abli%$ an ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,transportation4 ,?is (fice has develop$ & ma9ta9s compreh5sive em]g5cy plans & proc$ural manuals = natural disa/]s & o!r civil crises4 ,x con/antly monitors ! civil transportation sy/em = indications ( pot5tial adv]se impacts f all haz>ds4 ,x conducts s*$ul$ p]iodic tra9+ & read9ess ex]cises = ,,dot em]g5cy p]sonnel & ma9ta9s quick response cells & em]g5cy op]at+ facilities at ,,dot headqu>t]s & 9 ! field to provide an imm$iate reaction capability4 ,! sy/em has be5 activat$ sev]al times 9 ! rec5t pa/ 7e4g41 ,?ree ,mile ,isl&1 #aigi ,en]gy_/,fuel ,crisis1 ,indep5d5t ,truck]s' ,/rike1 & ! ,mt4 ,/4 ,hel5s eruption74 ,d4 ,,consid]ations ,,= ,,improv+ ,,response ,,capability ,e>?quake pr$iction has n be5 incorporat$ into exi/+ plans4 ,response to pr$ictions 9 ! curr5t environm5t1 if giv51 w\ld be ad hoc4 ,! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia has only a rudim5t>y plan & ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t none4 ,! ,city ( ,los ,angeles has exam9$ ! problem ext5sively1 b only consid]s its own jurisdiction & has n produc$ an actionable plan4 ,curr5t plann+ = ! recov]y p]iod is incomplete1 uncoord9at$1 & n functional4 ,/ate & local gov]nm5ts h done little to plan = ! recov]y p]iod :51 foll[+ ! em]g5cy lifesav+ phase1 ef=ts & res\rces are conc5trat$ on re/or+ ! function+ ( ! community4 ,!y presume t ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t w /ep 9 aft] a presid5tial decl>ation4 ,! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t has an unte/$ draft plan = ! ,san ,francisco area t is n fully coord9at$ ) ! ,/ate plans4 ,curr5t ,f$]al plans are ge>$ to ! provision ( assi/ance on ! ord] ( a few hundr$ million doll>s4 ,?us1 !re is little confid5ce t !y w\ld function "u ! requirem5ts = t5s-(-billions-(-doll>s & concomitant s]vice dem&s4 ,bo? ,f$]al & ,/ate ag5cies ne$ to commit ! f9ancial res\rces & assignm5t ( p]sonnel to ma9ta9 & enhance e>?quake plans & prep>$ness4 ,e>?quake prep>$ness1 al?\gh respond+ to high damage expectation1 is /ill bas$ ^u a relatively l[ probability occurr5ce4 ,:5 x is 9 competition ) press+ social ne$s = a portion ( limit$ res\rces1 social ne$s t5d to prevail at all levels ( gov]nm5t4 ,)\t a cle> commitm5t1 future developm5t ( e>?quake prep>$ness1 z 9 ! pa/1 is problematic & its implem5tation is 9 consid]able d\bt4 ,! ,f$]al e>?quake prep>$ness ef=t ne$s to focus on a high /ate ( read9ess4 ,hi/ory 9 ! area ( natural haz>d mitigation sugge/s t assignm5t ( responsibility1 ev5 by ! ,presid5t1 :5 n foll[$ by lead]%ip & regul> ov]sight ov] ! allocation ( f9ancial res\rces1 seldom leads to programs :i* c be expect$ to function4 ,! same weakness is evid5c$ at ! ,/ate & local gov]nm5t levels ) few exceptions4 ,! /resses likely to occur 9 em]g5cy response programs aft] a cata/rophic e>?quake w be su* t effective response w require a coop]ative1 integrat$ ef=t among diff]5t jurisdictions & levels ( gov]nm5t4 ,exp]i5ce 9 o!r areas ( plann+ & prep>$ness1 p>ticul>ly = civil def5se1 indicates t damage to exi/+ programs occurs :5 ! ,f$]al ,gov]nm5t raises expectations ( ! public & ( o!r levels ( gov]nm5t & !n fails to foll[ ?r\gh ) implem5tation & fund+4 ,x is bett] to ma9ta9 ! /atus quo ) m9or *anges at ! m>g9 ?an to ann\nce sub/antial program initiatives & n meet _! requirem5ts4 ,,*apt] ,v ,,an ,,assessm5t ,,( ,,! ,,social ,,impacts ,(t51 x is assum$ t disa/]s leave masses ( ! population 9 ! impact$ areas daz$ & helpless & unable to cope ) ! new conditions1 or t ^? n s immobiliz$ panic or display antisocial behavior4 ,ano!r common assumption is t local communities & organizations are r5d]$ ineffective to h&le ! _m problems1 lead+ to fur!r disorganization1 loss ( morale1 & requir+ ! quick ass]tion ( /rong outside lead]%ip & control4 ,practical exp]i5ce & field /udies ( disa/]s indicate t ^! assumptions are n necess>ily correct4 ,! widespread %>+ ( dang]1 loss1 & deprivation produces an intimate coop]ativ5ess among ! survivors1 :i* ov]comes social isolation & provides a *annel = v close communication & expression & a major s\rce ( physical & emotional support & reassurance4 ,?is capacity seems to acc\nt = ! resili5cy ( p]sonality & social organization 9 deal+ ) ?reat & dang]4 ,x is also at ! base ( ! ability ( social life to reg5]ate4 ,9 addition1 a good case c be made 9 t community sy/ems exp]i5c+ impact may be m effici5t & rational ?an !y are 9 normal circum/ances4 ,normal 7pre-disa/]7 community life traditionally op]ates at a l[ level ( effectiv5ess & effici5cy4 ,activities are direct$ t[>d a v diffuse set ( goals1 j z human res\rces )9 ! community are inadequately utiliz$4 ,^u disa/] impact1 c]ta9 community goals--c>e = victims & ! re/oration ( ess5tial s]vices--develop a high priority :ile o!rs are ignor$ or held 9 abeyance4 ,?us1 ! entire range ( community res\rces1 ev5 tak+ into acc\nt losses1 c be allocat$ to ! accompli%m5t ( ! m critical goals4 ,also1 human res\rces are bett] utiliz$4 ,_m wom51 old] p]sons1 y\ng] p]sons1 & memb]s ( m9orities n[ become productive2 ! labor m>ket aft] impact is op5 to ^? und]utiliz$ res\rces4 ,9 effect1 !n1 disa/]s create ! conditions = ! m effici5t utilization ( mat]ial res\rces & ! m effective mobilization ( human res\rces4 ,to accompli% ?is1 c]ta9 modifications h to occur 9 ! normal community /ructure1 s9ce ! usual decision-mak+ /ructures are design$ = a diff]5t range & type ( problem4 ,outsid]s see ?is re/ructur+ process z disorganiz$1 *aotic1 & creat+ ! necessity = ! imposition ( "s /rong outside au?ority4 ,on ! contr>y1 ?is re/ructur+ process is functional & adaptive4 ,its consequ5ces are se5 9 communities & societies t reb\nd dramatically f ! disruption & de/ruction to levels ( integration1 productivity1 & gr[? capacity f> beyond ! pre-disa/] /ate4 ,9 summ>y1 ! picture drawn po9ts to ! capacity ( individuals & in/itutions to deal ) difficult problems creat$ by disa/] impact4 ,x also po9ts to ! adaptive capacity ( social organization )9 communities to deal ) unique & dramatic problems4 ,^! f9d+s are n an argum5t aga9/ plann+ nor aga9/ outside assi/ance1 b !y %\ld condition bo? ! nature ( plann+ & ! direction ( assi/ance4 ,,annex #a ,,lett]s ,,( ,,correspond5ce ,,! ,,:ite ,,h\se ,,wa%+ton ,septemb] #ai1 #aihj ,to ,gov]nor ,j]ry ,br[n ,z y "k1 foll[+ my trip to view ! de/ructive impacts ( ! volcanic eruption ( ,mt4 ,/4 ,hel5s 9 ! ,/ate ( ,wa%+ton1 ,i direct$ t an assessm5t be und]tak5 ( ! consequ5ces & /ate ( prep>$ness = a major e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia4 ,?is review1 *air$ by my ,sci5ce & ,te*nology ,advisor1 ,frank ,press1 is n[ complete4 ,we are grateful = ! assi/ance provid$ by y\r /aff & ! o!r ,/ate1 & local (ficials 9 ?is ef=t4 ,al?\gh curr5t response plans are g5]ally adequate = mod]ate e>?quakes1 ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local (ficials agree t additional prep>ation is requir$ to cope ) a major e>?quake4 ,prud5ce requires1 !re=e1 t we take /eps to improve our prep>$ness4 ,:ile ! prim>y responsibility = prep>$ness re/s ) ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 its local gov]nm5ts & its p1 ! magnitude ( human suff]+ & loss ( life t might occur & ! importance ( ,cali=nia to ! re/ ( ! ,nation require increas$ ,f$]al att5tion to ?is important issue4 ,accord+ly1 ,i h direct$ t ! ,f$]al gov]nm5t increase its "w ) y to supplem5t y\r ef=ts4 ,! ,f$]al ef=ts w be l$ by ! ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy & include ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se & o!r ,dep>tm5ts & ag5cies z appropriate4 ,z a ,nation1 we mu/ r$uce ! adv]se impacts ( a cata/rophic e>?quake to ! ext5t humanly possible by increas+ our prep>$ness = ?is pot5tial ev5tuality4 ,s9c]ely1 sign$ ,jimmy ,c>t] ,! ,honorable ,edmund ,g4 ,br[n1 ,jr4 ,gov]nor ( ,cali=nia ,sacram5to1 ,cali=nia #iehad ,septemb] #bf1 #aihj ,! ,honorable ,jimmy ,c>t] ,! ,presid5t ,! ,:ite ,h\se ,wa%+ton1 ,d4,c4 #bjejj ,de> ,mr4 ,presid5t3 ,let me take ?is opportunity to review our conv]sations ov] ! la/ few mon?s reg>d+ increas$ seismic activity 9 ,cali=nia4 ,:5 we met 9 ,oakl& on ,july #d ,i rais$ ! issue ( seismic haz>ds4 ,i 0 conc]n$ !n ) ! /eady increase 9 seismic activity 9 ,cali=nia s9ce #aigh4 ,%>+ my conc]n1 y direct$ t ! ,national ,security ,c\ncil jo9 ) my /aff & c]ta9 local exp]ts to conduct a quick /udy on ! pot5tial = a great e>?quake 9 ,cali=nia4 ,z y "k1 significant !oretical & public policy rese>* _h already be5 complet$ by our ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 ,/ate ,geologi/1 ,e>?quake ,pr$iction ,evaluation ,c\ncil & ! ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices4 ,toge!r ) ! ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey & ! ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy 7,,fema71 !y _h cle>ly be5 keep+ abrea/ ( ! /ate ( ! art ( e>?quake pr$iction4 ,inde$1 comb9$ /ate & f$]al ef=ts1 f\nd$ on major !oretical advances 9 ,am]ican1 ,russian & ,*9ese seismic & geological !ory s9ce ! e>ly #aigjs1 _h %ift$ ! language ( e>?quake pr$iction 9 ,cali=nia f if to :56 ,9 light ( my p]sonal int]e/ 9 ?is subject1 ,i h sign$ into law ,assemblyman ,frank ,vic5cia's ,,ab #bbjb1 a jo9tly fund$ /ate-f$]al project to design a compreh5sive e>?quake pr$iction-response plan4 ,x is ! /ate's int5tion to prep>e a plan = ! great] ,los ,angeles area z quickly z feasible4 ,9 my view1 su* a fullscale pr$iction-response program _h become possible only aft] ! rese>* f9d+s ( bo? physical & policy sci5ti/s dur+ ! pa/ five ye>s4 ,x is my conviction t su* a plan is n[ timely--nei!r too e>ly nor too late4 ,9 ?is context1 y\r recognition ( ?is issue 9 our conv]sation ( ,septemb] #bb 9 ,los ,angeles 0 a welcome p]sonal re9=cem5t ( our /ate & local ef=ts4 ,i am also grateful = ! ,septemb] #c brief+ 9 ,sacram5to by ,mr4 ,john ,macy1 ,director ( ,,fema1 reg>d+ ! late/ ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey int]pretations ( anomalies ar\nd ,cali=nia's sy/em ( geological faults4 ,z soon z we h receiv$ ! f9al ,,fema report on ! details ( ^? anomalies1 ,i w ask ! /ate geologi/ to evaluate ! report1 conf] ) colleagues 9 ! ,geological ,survey & h all /ate & local (ficials fully brief$4 ,at t "t1 ,i w\ld be grateful = an e>ly opportunity to meet ) y & explore next /eps4 ,i am confid5t t a height5$ /ate ( aw>5ess among my fell[ ,cali=nians w s deploy ! res\rces ( ! /ate1 plus available f$]al supplem5t>y assi/ance1 z to m9imize ! loss ( life & prop]ty 9 ! ev5t ( a great e>?quake4 ,s9c]ely1 _/s_/ ,edmund ,g4 ,br[n1 ,jr4 ,gov]nor ,,annex #b ,,curr5t ,,cali=nia ,,& ,,f$]al ,,e>?quake ,,response ,,plann+ ,a4 ,,nature ,,( ,,em]g5cy ,,plann+ ,an em]g5cy1 z us$ 9 ?is report1 is def9$ z an unexpect$1 sudd5 or out-(-!-ord9>y ev5t or s]ies ( ev5ts adv]sely affect+ lives & prop]ty :i*1 because ( its magnitude1 _c be h&l$ by normal gov]nm5tal processes4 ,em]g5cy response plann+ is ! process t addresses prep>$ness = & response to an em]g5cy4 ,em]g5cy response plann+ is an evolution>y1 ongo+ process & is pr]equisite to all o!r em]g5cy read9ess activities4 ,x is a compreh5sive process t id5tifies ! pot5tial haz>d\s ev5ts1 & ! vuln]ability to su* haz>ds1 e/imates expect$ losses1 & assesses impacts ( su* ev5ts4 ,! developm5t ( writt5 plans is foll[$ by placem5t ( capabilities to implem5t ! response plan & by ! conduct ( p]iodic te/s & ex]cises4 ,! mo/ difficult task 9 ! developm5t ( an em]g5cy plan is to anticipate z _m ( ! problems & complications result+ f a giv5 disa/] situation z possible & to provide a basis = response to ^? n anticipat$4 ,! objective ( em]g5cy plann+ is to create ! capacity = gov]nm5t to3 ,save ! maximum numb] ( lives 9 ! ev5t ( an em]g5cy ,m9imize injuries & protect prop]ty ,pres]ve ! functions ( civil gov]nm5t ,ma9ta9 & support economic & social activities ess5tial = response & ! ev5tual long-t]m recov]y f ! disa/] ,em]g5cy plann+ is a logical & necess>y pre-em]g5cy activity = gov]nm5tal 7& o!r organizational7 entities likely to be affect$ by a disa/]'s occurr5ce4 ,to be successful1 su* plann+ mu/ be accompli%$ )9 ! framework ( ! day-to-day gov]nm5tal /ructure & activity b at ! same "t provide = response to ! extraord9>y circum/ances & requirem5ts inh]5t 9 disa/] situations4 ,em]g5cy plans include ! prep>ation ( guidel9es1 policy directives1 & proc$ures to be utiliz$ 9 prep>+ = & conduct+ disa/] op]ations1 tra9+1 & te/ ex]cises4 ,!y %\ld also conta9 cle> /atem5ts ( au?orities1 responsibilities1 organizational relation%ips1 & op]at+ proc$ures necess>y = ! accompli%m5t ( disa/] response & recov]y activities4 ,fur!r1 !y %\ld address ! f\r elem5ts ( mitigation1 prep>$ness1 response1 & recov]y 7imm$iate & long-t]m74 ,once plans are e/abli%$ !y mu/ be p]iodically updat$ z conditions *ange4 ,updat+ may become necess>y = a numb] ( reasons3 increas$ sci5tific1 te*nical1 & manag]ial k2 fe$back f evaluation ( ex]cises2 bett] und]/&+ ( vuln]ability2 %ifts 9 population & economic activities2 con/ruction ( new critical facilities2 & *anges 9 p]sonnel1 organization1 & legislation4 ,em]g5cy plann+ is a %>$ responsibility at all levels--9 ?is case f ! ,f$]al ?r\gh ! ,/ate & local jurisdictional levels4 ,x %\ld include bus9ess1 indu/ry1 rese>* & sci5tific in/itutions1 practic+ pr(essions1 & ! individuals4 ,by involv+ all functions ( gov]nm5t1 ! plann+ process enhances ! capability = implem5t+ ! plans ?r\gh ! reali/ic consid]ation ( available capabilities & elim9ation ( conflicts & inconsi/5cies ( roles & task assignm5ts4 ,fur!r1 by be+ a "p ( ! plann+ decision-mak+ process & hav+ id5tifi$ ! ne$s & areas ( consid]ation1 individuals1 organizations1 & (ficials responsible = em]g5cy op]ations are bett] able to relate to ! expect$ impact & ! op]ational environm5t4 ,! writt5 plans also s]ve valuable purposes = tra9+ & famili>ization ( new organizations1 individuals1 & public (ficials4 ,exp]i5ce has %[n repeat$ly t :5 em]g5cy op]ations are conduct$ 9 accordance ) exi/+ plans1 reaction "t is r$uc$ & coord9ation improv$1 ) few] casualties1 less prop]ty damage1 & a high] surviv+ socioeconomic capability to und]take recov]y4 ,o!r b5efits t accrue f plann+ include ! enhancem5t ( haz>d aw>5ess4 ,b4 ,,cali=nia ,,em]g5cy ,,plann+ ,,response ,! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia em]g5cy response plann+ is a s]ies ( relat$ docum5ts1 ea* ( :i* s]ve a specific purpose4 7,see figures #a & #b47 ,! basic plan ( a jurisdiction 7item 7#a7 9 figures #a & #b7 is ! f\ndation ( ?is plann+ process4 ,x is an ess5tial adm9i/rative 7r ?an op]ational7 docum5t1 & z su* x3 ,provides ! basis 7includ+ legal au?ority7 = & ! objectives ( em]g5cy plann+ & op]ations ,outl9es cont+5cies 7em]g5cy situations7 to be plann$ & prep>$ = & e/abli%es ! g5]al pr9ciples & policies 7concepts ( op]ations7 to be appli$ to ea* ,describes ! em]g5cy organization 9 t]ms ( :o is responsible = :at actions ,def9es int]jurisdictional & int]s]vice relation%ips & ! direction & control /ructure to make assignm5ts & resolve conflicts ,conta9s or ref]s to in=mation ( common int]e/ ab\t support+ facilities1 su* z ! ,em]g5cy ,op]ations ,c5t] & w>n+ & communications sy/ems ,provides ! plann+ basis = o!r support+ docum5ts :i* are m op]ationally ori5t$ ,! basic plan is support$ by a ,direction & ,control annex & by functional annexes 7see 7#b7 & 7#c7 respectively 9 figures #a & #b74 ,! ,direction & ,control annex details h[ ov]all responses to an em]g5cy w be manag$ & coord9at$4 ,functional annexes 7= bo? /aff & s]vices7 are design$ to address ! extraord9>y requirem5ts creat$ by em]g5cies4 ,!y id5tify ! specific ne$s1 ! organizational res\rces available to meet ^? ne$s1 & ! s*eme or concept ( op]ations = _! application4 ,x %\ld be not$ t1 because ( unique requirem5ts1 annexes (t5 d n reflect normal dep>tm5tal /ructure4 ,an annex becomes a dep>tm5tal plan only :5 an ag5cy repres5ts ! sole res\rce = meet+ ! /at$ ne$ & :5 satisfy+ t ne$ is ! only task assign$ to t ag5cy by ! basic plan4 ,! second major portion ( ! ,cali=nia ,/ate plann+ /ructure consi/s ( specific cont+5cy plans 7see 7#d7 9 figures #a & #b74 ,"o su* plan is prep>$ = ea* extraord9>y em]g5cy or disa/]1 likely to occur1 detail+ ! probable effects ( ! em]g5cy on ! jurisdiction & ! actions to be tak5 9 (fsett+ ^! effects4 ,x is also call$ a response plan s9ce x describes ! op]ations to be und]tak5 to deal ) cata/rophic situations4 ,cont+5cy plans include s]vice support plans & *eckli/s 7see 7#e7 & 7#f7 respectively 9 figures #a & #b74 ,ea* involv$ elem5t ( ! em]g5cy organization details its response actions 9 ,s]vice ,support ,plans & itemizes functions appropriate to ! specific cont+5cy4 ,! cont+5cy plans1 s]vice support plans1 & relat$ *eckli/s & /&>d op]at+ proc$ures con/itute ! op]ational portions ( ! ov]all em]g5cy plan4 ,!y address int]nal proc$ures to accompli% /at$ objectives & docum5t1 9 advance1 ! specific organizational elem5ts t w respond to ea* type ( disa/] or ne$1 ) id5tification ( proc$ures & res\rces4 ,! ?ird major "p ( ,cali=nia's ov]all ,/ate plan is a comp5dium ( in=mation & res\rces ne$$ to cope ) em]g5cies 7see 7#g7 9 figures #a & #b74 ,?is includes ref]5ces describ+ ! control /ructure 7,em]g5cy ,op]ations ,c5t] locations1 communications1 key facilities1 p]sonnel li/s1 & equipm5t s\rce li/+s74 ,c4 ,,f$]al ,,e>?quake ,,response ,,plann+ ,mo/ ,f$]al ag5cies op]at+ )9 ! ,/ate h a g5]ic em]g5cy response plan t e/abli%es _! int]nal proc$ures = respond+ to disa/]s4 ,c]ta9 ag5cies su* z ! ,corps ( ,eng9e]s & ! ,f$]al ,highway ,adm9i/ration1 :i* provide s]vices & support t are us$ on a regul> & fairly ext5sive basis 9 disa/]1 t5d to h m highly develop$ disa/] response plans4 ,"s ( !m ev5 h r basic e>?quake response segm5ts includ$ 9 _! basic plans4 ,?us1 = mod]ate e>?quakes ^! plans are relatively effective & ! ,f$]al response c be expect$ to be at lea/ adequate4 ,few ,f$]al ag5cies1 h[ev]1 h develop$ any specific plan t is adequate to respond to ! dem&s ( a cata/rophic ev5t caus+ prop]ty damage exce$+ ! #b billion range4 ,( #bd ,f$]al ag5cies ^: e>?quake plann+ /atus 7 rec5tly evaluat$ by ,,fema ,region ,,ix1 only ! ,six? ,u4,s4 ,army 0 det]m9$ to h develop$ a compreh5sive capability t is 9 acceptable detail1 has be5 ex]cis$1 & appe>s to be op]ationally adequate & reliable4 ,o!r ,f$]al ag5cies are n[ beg9n+ to p]ceive ! ne$ to improve _! plann+ & response capability foll[+ ! expect$ ev5t1 & are gradually respond+ to ?is ne$4 ,provid+ impetus to ?is exp&$ plann+ activity has be5 ! em]g5ce ( ! ,,fema ,region ,,ix ,e>?quake ,response ,plan = ! ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area4 ,?is is a site-specific ,,fema plan bas$ on a #aigd draft t provid$ = a full range ( ,f$]al assi/ance dur+ ! em]g5cy lifesav+ phase foll[+ ! e>?quake4 ,al?\gh ?is plan nev] proce$$ beyond ! draft /age 7because ( evolv+ ,,fema disa/] field op]ations policy71 x s]v$ z ! basic guide = ! developm5t ( ! ,six? ,u4,s4 ,army ,plan1 & has rema9$ a core docum5t = id5tify+ expect$ ,f$]al ag5cy activities = e>?quake recov]y 9 ! ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,9 #aigi1 ! em]g5cy response portion ( ! #aigd ,,fema ,region ,,ix draft 0 re/ructur$4 ,! conduct ( ! po/-ev5t response program 0 %ift$ f be+ a c5trally direct$ ,,fema activity "u ! op]ational control ( ! ,regional ,director to a dec5traliz$ op]ation :i* provides = functional disa/] support activities to be assign$ by ! ,regional ,director to c]ta9 ,f$]al ag5cies by ,mission ,assignm5t ,lett]s4 ,table #a indicates functional task assignm5t areas4 ,^? ) ! designation ,em]g5cy ,support ,function 7,,esf71 h be5 assign$ to o!r ,f$]al ag5cies4 ,table #b reviews ! pr9cipal & support ag5cy assignm5ts = ea* ( ! ,,esf functions4 ,on ! basis ( ^! anticipat$ mission assignm5ts1 ! task$ ,f$]al ag5cies p>ticipat$ 9 ! developm5t ( op]ational annexes 9 ! #aigi v]sion ( ! ,san ,francisco ,e>?quake ,response ,plan4 ,^u completion ( ! annexes1 all ag5cies 7 !n requir$ to develop ! necess>y ag5cy support plans & /&>d op]at+ proc$ures = accompli%+ ! mission assignm5t tasks4 ,additionally1 ^? ,f$]al ag5cies designat$ 9 ! plan z pr9cipal ag5cies 7 task$ ) ! responsibility ( organiz+ & coord9at+ ! activities ( ,f$]al ag5cies designat$ z support4 ,! rationale = ?is approa* 0 to id5tify ! v>i\s functional areas ( disa/] response = :i* a ,f$]al activity c\ld reasonably be expect$ to ma9ta9 aft] ! occurr5ce ( ! ev5t4 ,) ! functional areas id5tifi$1 ! range ( ,f$]al ag5cy tal5t 0 evaluat$ & ,f$]al response capabilities mat*$ to expect$ functional dem&s4 ,by ! developm5t ( a matrix 7figure #b71 a total ( #af functional response areas 7su* z transportation1 mass c>e1 & debris removal7 7 id5tifi$1 & #bj ,f$]al ag5cies1 plus volunte] organizations su* z ! ,am]ican ,national ,r$ ,cross1 7 designat$ z hav+ appropriate disa/] response capabilities4 ,subsequ5tly1 all ag5cies 7 rat$ on _! capability = function+ 9 a pr9cipal or a support capacity4 ,^! ag5cies 7 !n provid$ specific ,,fema ,region ,,ix ,mission ,assignm5ts or task+ /atem5ts :i*1 :5 trigg]$ by a ,presid5tial disa/] decl>ation1 provide ! legal basis = deliv]+ ! au?oriz$ assi/ance 9 response to ,/ate & local gov]nm5t ne$s4 ,! end result ( ?is approa* has be5 to create a mu* m effective & reliable capability to respond to ! ne$s ( an e>?quake disa/] by ^? ,f$]al ag5cies f :i* a significant response w\ld be requir$4 ---------- ,basic ,plan 4 7#a7 4 ---------- 4 4 4 ----------------- ----------------------------,cont+5cy ,plans 4 7#d7 4 ----------------- ,adm9i/rative 4 ,op]ational ------------- 4 ,direction & 4 ,control ,annex 4 7#b7 4 ------------- 4 ------------ 4 4 ------- ------- 4 ----------------------- ,/aff ,s]vice 4 ,s]vice ,support ,plans ,annexes ,annexes---------------------- 7#e7 7#c7 7#c7 4 ,response ,*eckli/s ------- ------- 4 & ,,sop's 7#f7 4 ----------------------- 4 4 4 -------------------- ,res\rces ,comp5dium 7#g7 -------------------- ,illu/ration3 ,figure #a3 ,em]g5cy ,plans 7,description ( & ,relation%ip ,betwe5 ,plan ,compon5ts7 ------------------------- ------------------------- ,,basic ,,plan 7#a7 - - ,au?orities ,,res\rces ,,manual7,s7 ,policies - 7#g7 - ,responsibilities ,sy/em ,int]faces - - ------------------------- - ------------------------- - ,direction & ,control 7#b7 ,communication ,capabilities -------------------------- - -------------------------- - ,public ,safety 7#c7 ,law ,en=cem5t_/,fire --------------------------- --------------------------- ,p ,c>e 7#c7 ,m$ical-,heal?_/,welf>e ---------------------------- ---------------------------- ,sy/em ,re/oration 7#c7 ,eng9e]+_/,utilities ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ,res\rce ,managem5t 7#c7 ,transportation1 etc4 ------------------------------ ------------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ,,e>?quake - ,,flood - ,response ,plan ,response ,plan 7#d7 7#d7 - - ---------------- ---------------- ,d ,c ,*eckli/ ,d ,c ,*eckli/ ----------------- ----------------- ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,plans 7#e7 ,plans 7#e7 ,*eckli/s ,*eckli/s ,,sop's 7#f7 ,,sop's 7#f7 ----------------- ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- ,,w> - - ,,w> ,response ,plan ,response ,plan 7#d7 7#d7 ,9-,place ,crisis ,protection - ,relocation - ---------------- ---------------- ,d ,c ,*eckli/ ,d ,c ,*eckli/ ----------------- ----------------- ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,plans 7#e7 ,plans 7#e7 ,*eckli/s ,*eckli/s ,,sop's 7#f7 ,,sop's 7#f7 ----------------- ----------------- ,illu/ration3 ,figure #b3 ,em]g5cy ,plann+ ,=mat 7,a ,p>tial ,illu/ration ( ! ,compon5t ,p>ts ( a ,jurisdictional ,em]g5cy ,plan7 ,,table #a ,,f$]al ,,em]g5cy ,,managem5t ,,ag5cy ,,region ,,ix ,,e>?quake ,,response ,,& ,,assi/ance ,,tasks 7,san ,francisco ,bay ,area7 ,,annexes ,,to ,,basic ,,plan ,disa/] ,field ,activities ,disa/] ,field ,location ,mission ,assignm5ts ,em]g5cy ,transportation 7,,esf-#a7a ,communication 7,,esf-#b7 ,em]g5cy ,debris ,cle>ance 7,,esf-#c7 ,fire ,fight+ 7,,esf-#d7 ,em]g5cy ,roads1 ,airfields1 & ,bridges 7,,esf-#e7 ,em]g5cy ,demolition 7,,esf-#f7 ,adm9i/rative ,logi/ical ,support 7,,esf-#g7 ,em]g5cy ,m$ical ,c>e 7,,esf-#h7 ,se>* & ,rescue 7,,esf-#i7 ,id5tification & ,disposal ( ,dead 7,,esf-#aj7 ,w>n+s ( ,risks & ,haz>ds 7,,esf-#aa7 ,em]g5cy ,di/ribution ( ,m$ic9e 7,,esf-#ab7 ,em]g5cy ,di/ribution ( ,food 7,,esf-#ac7 ,em]g5cy ,di/ribution ( ,consumable ,supplies 7,,esf-#ad7 ,em]g5cy ,%elt] ,mass ,c>e 7,,esf-#ae7 ,damage ,reconnaissance 7,,esf-#af7 ,isoseismal ,analysis ,au?orities ,ref]ral ,adm9i/ration #a ,em]g5cy ,support ,functions 7,,esf7 are cross-ref]5c$ by numb] 9 table #b4 ,,table #b ,,em]g5cy ,,support ,,functions ,,key3 a3 ,em]g5cy ,transportation b3 ,em]g5cy ,communications c3 ,em]g5cy ,debris ,cle>ance d3 ,fire ,fight+ e3 ,em]g4 ,roads1 ,air ,fields ,bridges f3 ,em]g5cy ,demolition g3 ,logi/ical ,support h3 ,em]g5cy ,m$ical ,c>e i3 ,se>* & ,rescue j3 ,id5tif4 ,disposal ( ,dead k3 ,w>n+s ( ,risks ,haz>ds l3 ,em]g5cy ,di/4 ( ,m$ic9e m3 ,em]g5cy ,di/4 ( ,food n3 ,em]g5cy ,di/4 ( ,consum4 ,supplies o3 ,em]g4 ,%elt]1 ,fe$1 ,mass ,c>e p3 ,damage ,reconnaissance ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,esf #a #b #c #d #e #f #g #h #i #aj #aa #ab #ac #ad #ae #af ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,annex 7,d77,e77,f77,g77,h77,i77,j77,k77,l77,m7 7,n77,o77,p77,q77,r77,s7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,f$]al ,,ag5cies a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,faa ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,fhwa ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,fra ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,retco-#i ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,umta ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,uscc ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dod - #f? ,,usa ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,p ,p ,p ,s ,s ,s ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dod - ,,coe ,s ,p ,s ,p ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,icc ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,da - ,,usfs ,s ,p ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,da - ,,fns ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,doc - ,,m>ad ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,ncs ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,ayrc ,s ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,volunte] ,ag5cies ,s 7,v>i\s7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,hew ,s ,p ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,u ,,atty ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dol - ,,o%a ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,usps ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,fbi ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,va ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,gsa ,s ,s ,s ,p ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- ,p - ,pr9cipal ,ag5cies ,s - ,support ,ag5cies ,,annex #c ,,assembly ,,bill ,,no4 #bbjb ,! ,gov]nor ( ,cali=nia sign$ into law ,assembly ,bill #bbjb on ,septemb] #be1 #aihj1 :i*1 among o!rs1 provides = ,/ate p>ticipation 9 a jo9t ,f$]al1 ,/ate1 & local program to prep>e a compreh5sive program = respond+ to a major e>?quake pr$iction4 ,?is action 0 initiat$ 9 ,janu>y #aihj ?r\gh ! actions ( ! ,assembly ,committee on ,gov]nm5t ,organization1 ,frank ,vic5cia1 ,*airman4 ,inclusions ( specific funds = prep>$ness 0 includ$ foll[+ a subcommittee on ,em]g5cy ,plann+ & ,disa/] ,relief he>+ on possible e>?quake pr$iction on ,april #bb1 #aihj4 ,! text ( ! ,law foll[s3 ,assembly ,bill ,no4 #bbjb ,,*apt] #ajdf ,an act to am5d ,section #hhig (1 to am5d & r5umb] ,section #hhih (1 & to add ,section #hhie4a to1 ! ,gov]nm5t ,code1 relat+ to ! ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 mak+ an appropriation !re=1 & decl>+ ! urg5cy !re(1 to take effect imm$iately4 ,approv$ by ,gov]nor ,septemb] #be1 #aihj4 ,fil$ ) ,secret>y ( ,/ate ,septemb] #bf1 #aihj4 ,,legislative ,,c\nsel',s ,,dige/ ,,ab #bbjb1 ,vic5cia4 ,seismic ,safety ,commission4 ,! ,seismic ,safety ,commission ,act1 :i* w self-repeal1 effective ,janu>y #a1 #aihf1 e/abli%es ! ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 & conf]s ^u x v>i\s p[]s & duties relat+ to e>?quake haz>d r$uction4 ,! ,cali=nia ,em]g5cy ,s]vices ,act conf]s v>i\s relat$ p[]s & duties ^u ! ,gov]nor1 ! ,director & ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices1 & ! ,cali=nia ,em]g5cy ,c\ncil4 ,?is bill w\ld am5d ! ,seismic ,safety ,commission ,act by3 *ang+ ! basic subject ( ! p[]s & duties ( ! commission to e>?quake haz>d mitigation & mak+ c]ta9 correspond+ *anges 9 its p[]s & duties2 includ+ )9 commission responsibilities1 s*$ul+ on its ag5da z requir$1 a report on disa/] mitigation issues f ! ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices & def9+1 = su* purposes1 disa/] z all natural haz>ds :i* c\ld h an impact on public safety2 & au?oriz+ ! commission to ex]cise v>i\s specifi$ p[]s 9 relation to o!r disa/]s1 z s def9$1 9 connection ) issues or items report$ or discuss$ ) ! ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices at any commission meet+4 ,?is bill w\ld also require ! commission to initiate1 z specifi$1 a compreh5sive program to prep>e ! /ate = respond+ to a major e>?quake pr$iction1 z specifi$4 ,?is bill w\ld appropriate #gej1jjj = ! purposes ( ?is act4 ,?is act w\ld take effect imm$iately z an urg5cy /atute4 ,appropriation3 yes4 ,! p ( ! ,/ate ( ,cali=nia d enact z foll[s3 ,,section #a4 ,section #hhie4a is add$ to ! ,gov]nm5t ,code1 to read3 #hhie4a4 ,! commission %all initiate1 ) ! assi/ance & p>ticipation ( o!r /ate1 f$]al1 & local gov]nm5t ag5cies1 a compreh5sive program to prep>e ! /ate = respond+ to a major e>?quake pr$iction4 ,! program %\ld be implem5t$ 9 ord] to result 9 specific tools or products to be us$ by gov]nm5ts 9 respond+ to an e>?quake pr$iction1 su* z educational mat]ials = citiz5s4 ,?is program may be implem5t$ on a prototypical basis 9 "o area ( ! /ate affect$ by e>?quake pr$ictions1 provid$ t x is useful = application 9 o!r areas ( ! /ate ^u its completion4 ,,sec4 #b4 ,section #hhig ( ! ,gov]nm5t ,code is am5d$ to read3 #hhig4 ,! commission is responsible = all ( ! foll[+ 9 connection ) e>?quake haz>d mitigation3 7a7 ,sett+ goals & priorities 9 ! public & private sectors4 7b7 ,reque/+ appropriate /ate ag5cies to devise crit]ia to promote e>?quake & disa/] safety4 7c7 ,s*$ul+ a report on disa/] mitigation issues f ! ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices1 on ! commission ag5da z requir$4 ,= ! purposes ( ?is subdivision1 ! t]m disa/] ref]s to all natural haz>ds :i* c\ld h impact on public safety4 7d7 ,recomm5d+ program *anges to /ate ag5cies1 local ag5cies1 & ! private sector :]e su* *anges w\ld improve e>?quake haz>ds & r$uction4 7e7 ,review+ ! recov]y & recon/ruction ef=ts aft] damag+ e>?quakes4 7f7 ,ga!r+1 analyz+1 & dissem9at+ in=mation4 7g7 ,enc\rag+ rese>*4 7h7 ,sponsor+ tra9+ to help improve ! compet5ce ( specializ$ en=cem5t & o!r te*nical p]sonnel4 7i7 ,help+ to coord9ate ! e>?quake safety activities ( gov]nm5t at all levels4 7j7 ,e/abli%+ & ma9ta9+ necess>y work+ relation%ips ) any bo>ds1 commissions1 dep>tm5ts1 & ag5cies1 or o!r public or private organizations4 ,,sec4 #c4 ,section #hhih ( ! ,gov]nm5t ,code is am5d$ & r5umb]$ to read3 #hhig4a4 ,to implem5t ! =ego+ responsibilities1 ! commission may d any ( ! foll[+3 7a7 ,review /ate budgets & review grant proposals1 o!r ?an ^? grant proposals submitt$ by in/itutions ( po/second>y education to ! f$]al gov]nm5t1 = e>?quake relat$ activities & to advise ! ,gov]nor & ,legislature !reon4 7b7 ,review legislative proposals1 relat$ to e>?quake safety to advise ! ,gov]nor & ,legislature conc]n+ su* proposals1 & to propose ne$$ legislation4 7c7 ,recomm5d ! addition1 deletion1 or *ang+ ( /ate ag5cy /&>ds :51 9 ! commission's view1 ! exi/+ situation creates undue haz>ds or :5 new developm5ts w\ld promote e>?quake haz>d mitigation1 & conduct public he>+s z deem$ necess>y on ! subjects4 7d7 ,9 ! conduct ( any he>+1 inve/igation1 inquiry1 or /udy :i* is ord]$ or und]tak5 9 any "p ( ! /ate1 to adm9i/] oa?s & issue subpo5as = ! att5dance ( witnesses & ! production ( pap]s1 records1 reports1 books1 maps1 acc\nts1 docum5ts1 & te/imony4 7e7 ,9 addition1 ! commission may p]=m any ( ! functions conta9$ 9 subdivisions 7a7 to 7d71 inclusive1 9 relation to o!r disa/]s1 z def9$ 9 subdivision 7c7 ( ,section #hhig1 9 connection ) issues or items report$ or discuss$ ) ! ,(fice ( ,em]g5cy ,s]vices at any commission meet+4 ,,sec4 #d4 ,! sum ( sev5 hundr$ fifty ?\s& doll>s 7#gej1jjj7 is h]eby appropriat$ f ! ,g5]al ,fund to ! ,seismic ,safety ,commission = c>ry+ out ! provisions ( ,section #hhie4a ( ! ,gov]nm5t ,code z add$ by ?is act1 cont+5t ^u receipt ( mat*+ f$]al funds4 ,,sec4 #e4 ,?is act is an urg5cy /atute necess>y = ! imm$iate pres]vation ( ! public peace1 heal?1 or safety )9 ! mean+ ( ,article ,,iv ( ! ,con/itution & %all g into imm$iate effect4 ,! facts con/itut+ su* necessity are3 ,9 ord] to protect ! public safety aga9/ e>?quakes1 includ+ ! imm95t possibility ( major e>?quake pr$ictions be+ made )9 ! next #ab mon?s1 x is necess>y t ?is act take effect imm$iately4 ,,ackn[l$gem5ts ,national ,security ,c\ncil ,ad ,hoc ,committee on ,assessm5t ( ,consequ5ces & ,prep>ation = a ,major ,cali=nia ,e>?quake ,dr4 ,frank ,press1 ,*airp]son1 ,presid5t's ,sci5ce ,advisor ,clifton ,alex&]1 ,jr41 ,secret>y ( ! ,army ,rod]ick ,r5ick1 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se ,cecil ,&res1 ,secret>y ( ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,int]ior ,h4,w4 ,m5>d1 ,dep>tm5t ( ,int]ior 7,,usgs7 ,w4 ,b[man ,cutt]1 ,executive ,associate ,director = ,budget1 ,(fice ( ,managem5t & ,budget ,lynn ,daft1 ,associate ,director = ,dome/ic ,policy ,/aff1 ,:ite ,h\se ,pet] ,hamilton1 ,special ,assi/ant to ! ,secret>y ( ! ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se ,t$ ,hodk[ski1 ,int]gov]nm5tal ,assi/ant to ! ,presid5t1 ,:ite ,h\se ,john ,w4 ,macy1 ,jr41 ,director1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,ri*>d ,gre51 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,frank ,camm1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,william ,odom1 ,milit>y ,assi/ant1 ,national ,security ,c\ncil1 ,:ite ,h\se ,rob]t ,p4 ,pirie1 ,jr41 ,assi/ant ,secret>y = ,manp[]1 ,res]ve ,affairs & ,logi/ics1 ,dep>tm5t ( ,def5se ,work+ ,gr\p ,memb]s ,philip ,smi?1 ,*airp]son1 ,(fice ( ,sci5ce & ,te*nology ,policy ,cl>5ce ,g4 ,coll9s1 ,dep>tm5t ( ,transportation ,ri*>d ,di,conti1 ,national ,communications ,sy/em ,joseph ,mull9ix1 ,(fice ( ,managem5t & ,budget ,*ris ,%oemak]1 ,national ,security ,c\ncil ,*>les ,c4 ,?iel1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,/eph5 ,travis1 ,dome/ic ,policy ,/aff ,rob]t ,l4 ,wesson1 ,(fice ( ,sci5ce & ,te*nology ,policy ,select$ ,contributors ,ri*>d ,e4 ,adams1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,v ,james ,alex&]1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,i ,william ,&]son1 ,national ,sci5ce ,f\ndation ,ralph ,ar*uleta1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,rog] ,d4 ,bor*]dt1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,rob]t ,d4 ,br[n1 ,jr41 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,james ,br[n1 ,george ,wa%+ton ,univ]sity ,ri*>d ,j4 ,buzka1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,m>ia ,d4 ,ca/a91 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,lloyd ,cluff1 ,woodw>d-,clyde ,consultants ,john ,craw=d1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,alex ,cunn+ham1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,donna ,d>l+1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,,ii ,g>dn] ,davis1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,,vi ,h5ry ,deg5kolb1 ,h4,j4 ,deg5kolb ,associates ,joseph ,dom+ues1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy1 ,region ,,ix ,russell ,dynes1 ,am]ican ,sociological ,association ,raymond ,r4 ,eis1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,susan ,elk9s1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy1 ,region ,,ix ,jack ,f4 ,ev]nd51 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,*>les ,fritz1 ,national ,academy ( ,sci5ces ,?omas ,e4 ,fumal1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,james ,t4 ,haigwood1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,i ,jane ,victoria ,h9dm>%1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,connie ,e4 ,hoop]1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,william ,b4 ,joyn]1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,h>ry ,k+1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,,ii ,h5ry ,lagorio1 ,univ]sity ( ,cali=nia ,ri*>d ,p4 ,lie*ti1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,t]ry ,meade1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy1 ,region ,,ix ,ugo ,morelli1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,william ,my]s1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,rob]t ,a4 ,page1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,daniel ,j4 ,ponti1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,h4 ,rog] ,pulley1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,f4 ,joseph ,russo1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,l\is ,s*walb1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,w&a ,h4 ,seid]s1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,paul ,a4 ,spudi*1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,frank ,/e9dl1 ,oklahoma ,/ate ,univ]sity ,k>l ,/e9brugge1 ,private ,consultant ,*ri/oph] ,/eph5s1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,rob]t ,/ev5s1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy1 ,region ,,ix ,john ,suci*1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,hur/ ,sutton1 ,private ,consultant ,ri*>d ,traub1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,i ,monica ,l4 ,turn]1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,rob]t ,e4 ,wallace1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,kay ,m4 ,walz1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,william ,w4 ,w>d1 ,/ate ( ,cali=nia1 ,,oes ,region ,,ii ,rob]t ,r4 ,wilson1 ,f$]al ,em]g5cy ,managem5t ,ag5cy ,rob]t ,p4 ,y]kes1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey ,m>k ,d4 ,zoback1 ,unit$ ,/ates ,geological ,survey 99 99 99 99 99