99 99 99 99 99 ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,transcriber's ,note3 ,in this document1 italics are represented as underscores1 bold text is marked with equals signs1 and bullets are represented as ,one of the tables in this document is very wide 7#hj characters7 ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- 99 99 99 99 99 ,,an ,,assessment ,,of ,,the ,,consequences ,,and ,,preparations ,,for ,a ,,catastrophic ,,california ,,earthquake3 ,,findings ,,and ,,actions ,,taken ,,federal ,,emergency ,,management ,,agency ,,from ,,analyses ,,carried ,,out ,,by ,,the ,,national ,,security ,,council ad hoc ,,committee ,,on ,,assessment ,,of ,,consequences ,,and ,,preparations ,,for ,a ,,major ,,california ,,earthquake ,illustration3 fema symbol federal emergency management agency ,washington1 ,d4,c4 #bjdgb ,november #aihj ,,table ,,of ,,contents ,page ,,chapter3 ,i4 ,executive ,summary of ,findings1 ,issues1 and ,actions #a ,,ii4 ,geologic ,earthquake ,scenarios #ae ,,iii4 ,assessment of ,losses for ,selected ,potential ,california ,earthquakes #ba ,,iv4 ,an ,assessment of the ,current ,state of ,readiness ,capability of ,federal1 ,state1 and ,local ,governments for ,earthquake ,response #bg ,v4 ,an ,assessment of the ,social ,impacts #ce ,,annex3 #a4 ,copies of ,correspondence ,between ,president ,carter and ,governor ,brown #cg #b4 ,current ,california and ,federal ,earthquake ,response ,planning #dc #c4 ,california ,assembly ,bill ,no4 #bbjb #ec ,,acknowledgements #eg ,,chapter ,i ,,executive ,,summary ,,of ,,findings1 ,,issues1 ,,and ,,actions ,a4 ,,background ,after viewing the destruction wrought by the eruption of ,mt4 ,st4 ,helens in ,washington ,state in ,may #aihj1 ,president ,carter became concerned about the impacts of a similar event of low probability but high damage potential1 namely a catastrophic earthquake in ,california1 and the state of readiness to cope with the impacts of such an event4 ,as a result of the ,president's concern1 an ad hoc committee of the ,national ,security ,council was formed to conduct a government review of the consequences of1 and preparation for such an event4 ,in addition to the ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency1 the ,committee included representatives from the ,office of ,science and ,technology ,policy1 the ,united ,states ,geological ,survey of the ,department of the ,interior1 the ,department of ,defense1 the ,department of ,transportation1 and the ,national ,communications ,system1 at the ,federal level2 ,state of ,california agencies and ,california local governments at the ,state and local levels2 and consultants from the private sector4 ,during the summer of #aihj1 the participants in this review prepared working papers on relevant issues and problem areas for the consideration of the ad hoc committee4 ,pertinent facts1 conclusions and recommendations were reviewed with the ,governor of the ,state of ,california4 ,the ,president reviewed the ad hoc committee's findings and approved the recommendations for ,federal action4 ,this report summarizes the results of the assessment and notes these actions4 ,a number of ,federal legislative and administrative actions have been taken to bring about1 in the near future1 an increased capability to respond to such an event4 ,the ,earthquake ,hazards ,reduction ,act of #aigg 7,p4,l4 #ie-abd7 authorizes a coordinated and structured program to identify earthquake risks and prepare to lessen or mitigate their impacts by a variety of means4 ,the coordination of this program1 the ,national ,earthquake ,hazards ,reduction ,program 7,,nehrp71 is the responsibility of the ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency 7,,fema71 which is charged with focusing ,federal efforts to respond to emergencies of all types and lessen their impacts before they occur4 ,the ,,nehrp has six high-priority thrusts3 ,overall coordination of ,federal departments and agencies' programs ,maintenance of a comprehensive program of research and development for earthquake prediction and hazards mitigation ,leadership and support of the ,federal ,interagency ,committee on ,seismic ,safety in ,construction as it develops seismic design and construction standards for use in ,federal projects ,development of response plans and assistance to ,state and local governments in the preparation of their plans ,analysis of the ability of financial institutions to perform their functions after a creditable prediction of an earthquake as well as after an event1 together with an exploration of the feasibility of using these institutions to foster hazard reduction ,an examination of the appropriate role of insurance in mitigating the impacts of earthquakes4 ,more recently1 a cooperative ,federal1 ,state1 local1 and private-sector effort was initiated to prepare for responding to a credible large-magnitude earthquake1 or its prediction1 in ,southern ,california4 ,b4 ,,summary ,the review provided the overall assessment that the ,nation is essentially unprepared for the catastrophic earthquake 7with a probability greater than #ej percent7 that must be expected in ,california in the next three decades4 ,while current response plans and preparedness measures may be adequate for moderate earthquakes1 ,federal1 ,state1 and local officials agree that preparations are woefully inadequate to cope with the damage and casualties from a catastrophic earthquake1 and with the disruptions in communications1 social fabric1 and governmental structure that may follow4 ,because of the large concentration of population and industry1 the impacts of such an earthquake would surpass those of any natural disaster thus far experienced by the ,nation4 ,indeed1 the ,united ,states has not suffered any disaster of this magnitude on its own territory since the ,civil ,war4 ,the basis for this overall assessment is summarized below and discussed in more detail in the subsequent chapters of this report4 ,c4 ,,likelihood ,,of ,,future ,,earthquakes ,earth scientists unanimously agree on the inevitability of major earthquakes in ,california4 ,the gradual movement of the ,pacific ,plate relative to the ,north ,american ,plate leads to the inexorable concentration of strain along the ,san ,andreas and related fault systems4 ,while some of this strain is released by moderate and smaller earthquakes and by slippage without earthquakes1 geologic studies indicate that the vast bulk of the strain is released through the occurrence of major earthquakes--that is1 earthquakes with ,richter magnitudes of #g4j and larger and capable of widespread damage in a developed region4 ,along the ,southern ,san ,andreas fault1 some #cj miles from ,los ,angeles1 for example1 geologists can demonstrate that at least eight major earthquakes have occurred in the past #a1bjj years with an average spacing in time of #adj years1 plus or minus #cj years4 ,the last such event occurred in #aheg4 ,based on these statistics and other geophysical observations1 geologists estimate that the probability for the recurrence of a similar earthquake is currently as large as #b to #e percent per year and greater than #ej percent in the next #cj years4 ,geologic evidence also indicates other faults capable of generating major earthquakes in other locations near urban centers in ,california1 including ,san ,francisco-,oakland1 the immediate ,los ,angeles region1 and ,san ,diego4 ,seven potential events have been postulated for purposes of this review and are discussed in chapter ,,ii4 ,the current estimated probability for a major earthquake in these other locations is smaller1 but significant4 ,the aggregate probability for a catastrophic earthquake in the whole of ,california in the next three decades is well in excess of #ej percent4 ,d4 ,,casualties ,,and ,,property ,,damage ,casualties and property damage estimates for four of the most likely catastrophic earthquakes in ,california were prepared to form a basis for emergency preparedness and response4 ,chapter ,,iii gives details on these estimates4 ,deaths and injuries would occur principally because of the failure of man-made structures1 particularly older1 multistory1 and unreinforced brick masonry buildings built before the adoption of earthquake-resistant building codes4 ,experience has shown that some modern multistory buildings--constructed as recently as the late #aifj's but not adequately designed or erected to meet the current understanding of requirements for seismic resistance--are also subject to failure4 ,strong ground shaking1 which is the primary cause of damage during earthquakes1 often extends over vast areas4 ,for example1 in an earthquake similar to that which occurred in #aheg1 strong ground shaking 7above the threshold for causing damage7 would extend in a broad strip along the ,southern ,san ,andreas fault1 about #bej miles long and #ajj miles wide1 and include almost all of the ,los ,angeles-,san ,bernardino metropolitan area1 and all of ,ventura1 ,santa ,barbara1 ,san ,luis ,obispo1 and ,kern counties4 ,for the most probable catastrophic earthquake--a ,richter magnitude #h earthquake similar to that of #aheg1 which occurred along the ,southern ,san ,andreas fault--estimates of fatalities range from about #c1jjj1 if the earthquake were to occur at #b3cj a4m4 when the population is relatively safe at home1 to more than #ac1jjj1 if the earthquake were to occur at #d3cj p4m4 on a weekday1 when much of the population is either in office buildings or on the streets4 ,injuries serious enough to require hospitalization under normal circumstances are estimated to be about four times as great as fatalities4 ,for the less likely prospect of a ,richter magnitude #g4e earthquake on the ,newport-,inglewood fault in the immediate ,los ,angeles area1 fatalities are estimated to be about #d1jjj to #bc1jjj1 at the same respective times4 ,such an earthquake1 despite its smaller magnitude1 would be more destructive because of its relative proximity to the most heavily developed regions2 however1 the probability of this event is estimated to be only about #j4a percent per year4 ,smaller magnitude--and consequently less damaging--earthquakes are anticipated with greater frequency on a number of fault systems in ,california4 ,in either of these earthquakes1 casualties could surpass the previous single greatest loss of life in the ,united ,states due to a natural disaster1 which was about #f1jjj persons killed when a hurricane and storm surge struck the ,galveston area of the ,texas coast in #aijj4 ,the highest loss of life due to earthquakes in the ,united ,states occurred in ,san ,francisco in #aijf1 when #gjj people were killed4 ,by way of comparison 7in spite of the vast differences in building design and practices and socioeconomic systems7 the devastating #aigf ,tangshan earthquake in ,china caused fatalities ranging from the official ,chinese ,government figure of #bdb1jjj to unofficial estimates as high as #gjj1jjj4 ,fortunately1 building practices in the ,united ,states preclude such a massive loss of life4 ,property losses are expected to be higher than in any past earthquake in the ,united ,states4 ,for example1 ,san ,francisco in #aijf1 and ,anchorage in #aifd1 were both much less developed than today when they were hit by earthquakes4 ,and the ,san ,fernando earthquake in #aiga1 was only a moderate shock that struck on the fringe of a large urban area4 ,each of these three earthquakes caused damage estimated at about #j4e billion in the then current dollars4 ,estimates of property damage for the most probable catastrophic earthquake on the ,southern ,san ,andreas 7,richter magnitude #h7 and for the less probable but more damaging one 7,richter magnitude #g4e7 on the ,newport-,inglewood fault1 are about #ae billion and #gj billion respectively4 ,by comparison1 tropical storm ,agnes caused the largest economic loss due to a natural disaster in the ,united ,states to date but it amounted to only #c4e billion 7in #aigb dollars74 ,it should be noted1 however1 that substantial uncertainty exists in casualty and property damage estimates because they are based on experience with only moderate earthquakes in the ,united ,states 7such as the #aiga ,san ,fernando earthquake7 and experience in other countries where buildings are generally less resistant to damage4 ,the uncertainty is so large that the estimated impacts could be off by a factor of two or three1 either too high or too low4 ,even if these lowest estimates prevail1 however1 the assessment about preparedness and the capability to respond to the disasters discussed in this report would be substantially unchanged4 ,assuming a catastrophic earthquake1 a variety of secondary problems could also be expected4 ,search and rescue operations--requiring heavy equipment to move debris--would be needed to free people trapped in collapsed buildings4 ,it is likely that injuries1 particularly those immediately after the event1 could overwhelm medical capabilities1 necessitating a system of allocating medical resources to those who could be helped the most4 ,numerous local fires must be expected2 nevertheless1 a conflagration such as that which followed the ,tokyo earthquake of #aibc1 or the ,san ,francisco earthquake of #aijf1 is improbable1 unless a ,santa ,ana type wind pattern is in effect4 ,since the near failure of a dam in the ,san ,fernando1 ,california1 earthquake of #aiga 7which was a moderate event71 substantial progress has been made in ,california to reduce the hazard from dams1 in some cases through reconstruction4 ,for planning purposes1 however1 experts believe that the failure of at least one dam should be anticipated during a catastrophic earthquake in either the ,los ,angeles or ,san ,francisco regions4 ,experience in past earthquakes1 particularly the #aiga ,san ,fernando earthquake1 has demonstrated the potential vulnerability of commercial telephone service to earthquakes1 including the possibility of damage to switching facilities from ground shaking and rupture of underground cables that cross faults4 ,this is especially serious because immediately following earthquakes1 public demand for telephone services increases drastically4 ,this increased demand overloads the capability of the system1 even if it had not been damaged1 and therefore management action to reduce the availability of service to non-priority users and to accommodate emergency calls is mandatory4 ,radio-based communication systems1 particularly those not requiring commercial power1 are relatively safe from damage1 although some must be anticipated4 ,the redundancy of existing communication systems1 including those designed for emergency use1 means that some capability for communicating with the affected region from the outside would almost surely exist4 ,restoration of service by the commercial carriers should begin within #bd to #gb hours as a result of maintenance and management actions2 however1 total restoration of service would take significantly longer4 ,while numerous agencies have the capability for emergency communication within themselves1 non-telephonic communication among entities and agencies in the affected area is minimal4 ,this is true for ,federal1 ,state1 and local agencies4 ,this weakness has been pointed out repeatedly by earthquake response exercises1 and the problem is raised by almost every emergency preparedness official at every level of government4 ,consequently1 a major problem for resolution is the operational integration of communications systems and networks among the relevant ,federal1 ,state1 and local agencies4 ,because of their network-like character1 most systems for transportation and water and power generation and distribution1 as a whole1 are resistant to failure1 despite potentially severe local damage4 ,these systems would suffer serious local outages1 particularly in the first several days after the event1 but would resume service over a few weeks to months4 ,the principal difficulty would be the greatly increased need for these systems in the first few days after the event1 when lifesaving activities would be paramount4 ,portions of the ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area and of the ,los ,angeles ,area contain substantial concentrations of manufacturing capacity for guided missiles and space vehicles1 semiconductors1 aircraft parts1 electronic computing equipment1 and airframes4 ,their specific vulnerability to the postulated earthquakes was not analyzed4 ,in the event of major damage1 however1 the long-term impacts may be mitigated somewhat by such measures as the use of underutilized capacity located elsewhere1 substitution of capacity from other industries1 imports1 use of other products1 and drawing-down of inventories4 ,since we have not recently experienced a catastrophic earthquake in the ,united ,states1 there are many unknowns which must be estimated with best judgment4 ,this is true particularly for the response of individuals as well as governmental and other institutions4 ,popular assumptions of post-disaster behavior include antisocial behavior and the need for martial law1 the breakdown of government institutions1 and the requirement for the quick assertion of outside leadership and control4 ,practical experience and field studies of disasters1 however1 indicate that these assumptions are not necessarily correct4 ,on the contrary1 the impacts of the disaster commonly produce a sense of solidarity and cooperativeness among the survivors4 ,nonetheless1 the perception remains among emergency response officials that there will be an increased need for law enforcement following the event4 ,another major unknown involves whether a medium or short-term warning of the event would be possible and how such a warning could be utilized most effectively4 ,the technology for earthquake prediction is in an early stage of development and1 therefore it is problematical that researchers will succeed in issuing a short-term warning before a catastrophic earthquake1 should the event occur in the next few years4 ,yet as research progresses1 scientifically-based1 intermediate-term warnings are possible1 but subject to a high degree of uncertainty4 ,consequently1 response preparations must be made for both an earthquake without warning1 and one with a short-or intermediate-term warning1 possibly with a significant level of uncertainty4 ,e4 ,,capability ,,for ,,response ,planning for response to a large-scale disaster is a complicated process encompassing many variables such as population densities and distribution characteristics2 land-use patterns and construction techniques2 geographical configurations2 vulnerability of transportation2 communications and other lifeline systems2 complex response operations2 long-term physical1 social1 and economic recovery policies4 ,these factors1 together with the realization that an earthquake has the potential for being the greatest single-event catastrophe in ,california1 make it incumbent upon the ,state to maintain as high a level of emergency readiness as is practicable1 and to provide guidance and assistance to local jurisdictions desiring to plan and prepare for such events4 ,annex #b reviews the general nature of preparedness planning and the basic characteristics of ,california and ,federal ,government plans4 ,federal1 ,state1 and local emergency response capabilities are judged to be adequate for moderate earthquakes--those that are most likely to occur frequently in ,california and cause property damage in the range of #a billion4 ,such an event1 however1 would severely tax existing resources and provide a major test of management relationships among different governmental levels4 ,federal1 ,state1 and local officials1 however1 are quick to point out serious shortcomings in their ability to respond to a catastrophic earthquake4 ,an analysis of the preparedness posture of #fj local governments1 #cd ,california ,state organizations1 and #ag ,federal agencies1 carried out by the ,california ,office of ,emergency ,services 7,,oes7 and ,,fema1 indicates that response to such an earthquake would become disorganized and largely ineffective4 ,many governmental units have generalized earthquake response plans1 some have tailored earthquake plans1 and several plans are regularly exercised4 ,the coordination of these plans among jurisdictions1 agencies1 and levels of government1 however1 is inadequate4 ,in addition1 the potential for prediction is not incorporated2 long-term recovery issues are not considered2 and communications problems are significant1 as discussed above4 ,overall1 ,federal preparedness is deficient at this time4 ,early reaction to a catastrophic event would likely be characterized by delays1 ineffective response1 and ineffectively coordinated delivery of support4 ,,fema ,region ,,ix 7,san ,francisco7 has drafted an ,earthquake ,response ,plan for the ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,annex #b gives an overview of this draft plan4 ,this is a site-specific plan for response to potential catastrophic earthquake occurrences4 ,the emergency response portion relies upon a decentralized approach which provides for ,federal disaster support activities to be assigned to selected ,federal agencies by mission assignment letters4 ,no specific plans have been prepared in this detail for other seismic risk areas1 although it is expected that the ,bay ,area plan could be easily adapted to other areas4 ,the ,department of ,defense and the ,department of ,transportation are developing detailed earthquake plans that would ensure a well-organized and adequate response to mission assignments for a major earthquake4 ,the plans of other agencies need further development4 ,very significant capabilities to assist in emergency response exist within the ,california ,national ,guard1 ,california ,highway ,patrol1 the ,departments of ,health ,services and ,transportation1 and the ,u4,s4 ,department of ,defense4 ,capabilities exist for such lifesaving activities as aerial reconnaissance1 search and rescue1 emergency medical services1 emergency construction and repair1 communications1 and emergency housing and food4 ,current estimates by both ,federal and ,state officials1 however1 indicate that at least #f to #h hours would be required before personnel and equipment can be mobilized and begin initial deployment to the affected area4 ,during the period before the arrival of significant outside assistance critical to the saving of lives 7especially of those trapped in collapsed buildings71 the public would be forced to rely largely upon its own resources for search and rescue1 first aid1 and general lifesaving actions4 ,the current level of public preparation for this critical phase of response can be described as only minimal4 ,much of the current state of preparedness arises from past programs aimed at a wide spectrum of emergencies1 particularly civil defense against nuclear attack4 ,new or strengthened programs are needed to enhance public preparedness4 ,,fema has recently entered into a cooperative effort with ,california ,state and local governments to prepare an integrated prototype preparedness plan to respond to a catastrophic earthquake in ,southern ,california or to a prediction of such an event4 ,the plan's completion1 in late #aiha1 promises to improve substantially the state of readiness to respond to the prediction and the occurrence of an earthquake in that area and to provide a model which could be applied to other earthquake-prone regions of ,california and the rest of the country4 ,f4 ,,findings1 ,,issues1 ,,and ,,actions ,the ad hoc committee responsible for this review developed several significant findings related to the implications of major earthquakes in ,california and our capabilities to respond to them4 ,it then identified major relevant issues raised by these findings and caused a number of actions to be taken4 ,a brief discussion of the results of its review follows4 #a4 ,leadership ,finding3 ,effective leadership at all governmental levels is the single most important factor needed to improve this ,nation's preparedness for a catastrophic earthquake in ,california4 ,the problem of emergency preparedness is severely complicated because responsibilities for preparation and response cut across normal lines of authority4 ,further complication arises from the large areal extent of the impacts expected from a major earthquake1 affecting literally dozens of government entities4 ,the emergency services coordinator at any level of government is effective only to the extent he or she is backed by the political leadership at that level4 ,this is especially true when preparedness activities must be done1 for the most part1 within existing resources4 ,city and county officials must increasingly accept their share of the responsibility for preparedness1 but commitment by ,state or ,federal leaders is also essential4 ,the general tendency among elected officials and the public is to ignore the existing hazard problem4 ,experience1 however1 teaches that effective response mechanisms must be in place before the disaster2 they cannot be developed in the time of crisis4 ,overcoming this apathy and developing the organizational arrangements among ,federal1 ,state1 and local government and volunteer agencies--together with the private sector and the general public will require1 above all1 leadership4 ,issue3 ,the leadership role of the ,federal ,government in preparing for a catastrophic earthquake in ,california and how this leadership role is to be exerted require clarification4 ,action3 ,the ,president has communicated with the ,governor of ,california to indicate the results of this review1 to express concern about the need for cooperative leadership to prepare for the event1 and to offer to increase the ,federal effort with the ,state of ,california and local governments in the cooperative undertaking to prepare for a catastrophic earthquake4 ,he stressed that the ,federal role is to supplement the effort and resources of the ,state1 and that commitment of significant ,federal resources would be contingent upon the application of significant ,state resources4 ,in his response to the ,president's communications1 the ,governor of ,california underscored the ,state's readiness to participate in this cooperative effort and announced his signing into law a measure that would provide substantial ,state resources 7see annex #a74 ,a summary of the new law 7,a4,b4 #bbjb7 is contained in annex #c4 #b4 ,management of ,preparedness and ,response ,activities ,finding3 ,preparedness must be developed as a partnership between ,federal1 ,state1 and local governments with improvements needed at all levels1 as none have the resources or authorities to solve the problem alone4 ,issue3 ,since the ,nation faces a very probable earthquake in ,california sometime during the next #cj years1 ,,fema should provide the necessary leadership1 management1 and coordination required to strengthen planning and preparedness within the ,federal ,government1 as delegated under the ,national ,earthquake ,hazards ,reduction ,program of #aigg and the ,disaster ,relief ,act of #aigd4 ,in this effort1 ,,fema requires the support and assistance of numerous other ,federal agencies4 ,actions3 ,,fema is taking steps to3 ,strengthen significantly its management1 research1 application1 and coordination functions1 as delegated under the ,national ,earthquake ,hazards ,reduction ,program and ,disaster ,relief ,act4 ,lead other agencies in the development of a comprehensive preparedness strategy detailing specific objectives and assignments1 and periodically monitor accomplishments in meeting assigned responsibilities4 ,departments and agencies with appropriate capabilities will provide needed support to ,,fema in strengthening ,federal preparedness and hazard mitigation programs4 ,issue3 ,a major deficiency that has been identified is the potential for delay following a catastrophic earthquake in processing a request for a ,presidential declaration of a major disaster1 and the subsequent initiation of full-scale ,federal support for lifesaving actions4 ,the first few hours are critical in saving the lives of people trapped in collapsed buildings2 consequently1 this is when ,federal support is needed most4 ,decisions on post-event recovery aspects of ,federal assistance can be deferred until lifesaving operations are underway and sufficient information about damage is in hand4 ,action3 ,,fema will develop and negotiate1 before the event1 an agreement with the ,state of ,california which will enable the ,president to declare a major disaster and initiate full-scale ,federal support for lifesaving and humanitarian action within minutes of a catastrophic earthquake4 ,the agreement will defer resolution of issues relating to longer-term restoration and recovery and similar questions with large budgetary implications until adequate damage estimates are available4 ,the ,executive ,branch will thus be able to arrive at an informed decision4 ,issue3 ,significant improvements in the ,federal1 ,state1 and local capability for coordination of operational response to a catastrophic earthquake are needed4 ,actions3 ,,fema and other appropriate ,federal agencies will increase their efforts1 in a partnership with appropriate ,state and local agencies and volunteer and private-sector organizations1 to3 ,complete development and agreement on fully integrated earthquake response plans for both the ,san ,francisco and ,los ,angeles regions1 including provision for predicted as well as unpredicted earthquakes1 building upon the existing draft plan for ,san ,francisco4 ,establish a small ,,fema staff in ,california dedicated to the coordination of earthquake preparedness planning and implementation4 ,develop improved mechanisms for the coordination of medical and mortuary activities following a catastrophic earthquake4 ,identify and document the critical requirements for emergency communications--particularly non-telephonic communications--among ,federal1 ,state1 and local agencies4 ,shortfalls between critical requirements and current capabilities1 as well as remedial actions or recommended solutions for each will be identified in accordance with the ,national ,plan for ,communications ,support in ,emergencies and ,major ,disasters4 ,this review will include consideration of using existing satellite communications or a dedicated system1 should it be found necessary4 ,cooperatively conduct practice response exercises with ,state and local officials that will prepare officials and the public for conditions that might be encountered in a catastrophic earthquake and that would reveal deficiencies in planning4 ,issue3 ,improving the current inadequate preparedness of the public for a catastrophic earthquake requires a substantial increase in public information and public awareness4 ,although public information is primarily a ,state1 local1 and private-sector responsibility1 the ,federal ,government has a role as well4 ,because citizens will have no choice but to rely largely upon their own resources in the first several hours immediately following a catastrophic earthquake1 it is important that certain basic knowledge about lifesaving measures be very widely disseminated4 ,action3 ,,fema will stimulate and work with the ,state of ,california and other appropriate groups to develop and publicize earthquake awareness1 hazard mitigation techniques1 specific post-earthquake actions to be taken1 including first aid1 and other pertinent information4 ,issue3 ,the possibility of a credible1 scientifically-based prediction of a catastrophic earthquake poses serious challenges to government and our society4 ,the current level of scientific understanding of earthquake prediction and the available resources are such that present instrumentation efforts are directed toward research rather than maintaining extensive monitoring networks for real-time prediction4 ,the transition from research to fully operational capability will require additional scientific understanding as well as resources4 ,earthquake predictions are possible1 perhaps likely1 however1 from the current research effort4 ,even with a significant level of uncertainty1 any scientifically credible prediction that indicates a catastrophic earthquake is expected within about #a year or less1 will require very difficult and consequential decisions on the part of elected officials at all levels of government4 ,decisions may include such possibilities as the mobilization of ,national ,guard and ,u4,s4 ,department of ,defense resources prior to the event1 the imposition of special procedures or drills at potentially hazardous facilities1 such as nuclear reactors or dams1 the condemnation or evacuation of particularly unsafe buildings with the subsequent need for temporary housing1 and the provisions of special protection of fragile inventories4 ,if the prediction is correct and appropriate actions are taken1 thousands of lives can be saved and significant economic losses can be avoided4 ,the costs of responding to a prediction may be substantial1 however1 and the commitment of resources undoubtedly will have to be made in the face of considerable uncertainty and even reluctance4 ,indeed1 the possibility of an inaccurate prediction must be faced squarely4 ,actions3 ,,fema1 in conjunction with other appropriate ,federal agencies1 ,state and local governments1 and volunteer and private-sector organizations1 will increase its actions to develop procedures for responding to a credible1 scientific earthquake prediction1 including3 ,identification of constructive and prudent actions to be taken ,analysis of the costs and benefits of various alternative actions ,identification of roles and responsibilities in deciding which actions should be implemented and by whom ,criteria for evaluating circumstances when the provision of ,federal assistance would be appropriate ,the ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey of the ,department of the ,interior will3 ,maintain a sound and well-balanced program of research in earthquake prediction and hazard assessment based upon a carefully considered strategic plan ,work with ,state and local officials and ,,fema to develop improved mechanisms for the transmission of earthquake predictions and related information1 and to plan for the utilization of the capability for earthquake prediction #c4 ,resources ,finding3 ,while leadership and management are essential ingredients to achieve an adequate earthquake preparedness posture1 the availability of adequate staffing and resources at all levels of government determines the efficacy of agency programs and initiatives4 ,in many agencies1 earthquake preparedness has been accorded a low priority in their programs4 ,this is a manifestation of a more general problem of minimal agency resource allocation to emergency preparedness4 ,the results of the actions that have been indicated will be limited unless additional resources are made available4 ,issue3 ,additional resources should be provided as necessary to accelerate the earthquake hazard mitigation and preparedness activities under the ,national ,earthquake ,hazards ,reduction ,program4 ,action3 ,,fema has reassessed its priorities and is allocating resources to increase the staffing1 funding1 and management attention and direction for earthquake hazards mitigation1 including preparations for a catastrophic earthquake in ,california4 ,this includes an increase of staff resources in ,,fema ,region ,,ix for ,federal1 ,state1 and local coordination of planning1 preparedness1 and mitigation4 ,resource needs that cannot be fully met by the reassessment and reallocation for ,fiscal ,year #aiha should be identified and justified along with needs for ,fiscal ,year #aihb in the course of the budget submissions for ,fiscal ,year #aihb4 ,to facilitate an adequate and balanced response by other ,federal agencies1 ,,fema will provide timely guidance to other agencies on specific priorities for this effort in relation to other major preparedness goals4 ,the ,office of ,management and ,budget and the ,office of ,science and ,technology ,policy will work together to develop a cross-agency ranking of budgetary resources for earthquake preparedness for ,fiscal ,year #aihb4 ,,chapter ,,ii ,,geologic ,,earthquake ,,scenarios ,a4 ,,major ,,events ,for purposes of assessing the consequences of a major ,california earthquake1 scenarios for seven large earthquakes were developed4 ,the scenarios depict expectable earthquakes that could severely impact on the major population centers of ,california4 ,in each case they are representative of only one possible magnitude of earthquake that could occur on the indicated fault system4 ,on each fault system there is a greater probability of one or more damaging earthquakes of somewhat smaller magnitude than the postulated event4 ,the postulated earthquakes are listed in the following table4 ,,table #a ,,major ,,california ,,earthquakes ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,current ,annual ,likelihood ,probability of of ,occurrence ,richter ,occurrence in ,next ,region ,fault ,system ,magnitude#a 7,percent7 #bj-cj ,years ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,los ,angeles- ,southern ,san ,bernardino ,san ,andreas #h4c #b-e ,high ,san ,francisco ,northern ,bay ,area ,san ,andreas #h4c #a ,moderate ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area ,hayward #g4d #a ,moderate ,los ,angeles ,newport- ,moderate ,inglewood #g4e #j4a -,low ,san ,diego ,rose ,canyon #g4j #j4ja ,low ,riverside ,moderate- ,san ,bernardino ,cucamonga #f4h #j4a ,low ,los ,angeles ,santa ,monica #f4g #j4ja ,low ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- #a ,this is the estimated largest magnitude earthquake expected at a reasonable level of probability4 ,the main shock can be expected to be followed by large aftershocks over a period of weeks or longer4 ,each large aftershock would be capable of producing additional significant damage and hampering disaster assistance operations4 ---------------------------------------- --------------------------------- ,these earthquake scenarios represent the largest magnitude events estimated on the basis of a variety of geologic assumptions4 ,the appropriateness of these assumptions depends on the intent of the analysis and the state of geologic knowledge4 ,therefore1 the resulting estimates may not be appropriate for other purposes1 such as the development of seismic design criteria for a specific site4 ,the development of such criteria commonly requires detailed analyses of the site and its immediate geologic environment beyond the scope of this report4 ,consequently1 detailed site analyses may require modification of the conclusions reached in this report1 particularly fault systems other than the ,san ,andreas and ,hayward faults4 ,b4 ,,geologic ,,evidence ,some of the possible earthquakes listed are repeat occurrences of historical events1 others are not1 but geologic evidence indicates that earthquakes occurred on these faults before settlement of the region4 ,based on available data1 the postulated earthquake magnitudes would be the largest events that could be expected at a reasonable level of probability4 ,they represent a selection of events useful for planning purposes1 but are by no means the only such events likely to occur either on these or other fault systems4 ,the historic record of seismicity in ,california is too short to determine confidently how often large earthquakes reoccur4 ,information on past earthquakes must be gleaned from the geologic record and therefore1 presents a picture of past seismicity that is incomplete and not yet fully deciphered4 ,current knowledge about the recurrence of large earthquakes on specific faults is rudimentary4 ,the probabilities of occurrence shown above are order-of-magnitude estimates and subject to considerable uncertainty1 especially for the less probable events4 ,c4 ,,description ,,of ,,events ,following are brief descriptions of postulated events4 ,figure #a gives their geographic location4 #a4 ,los ,angeles-,san ,bernardino_/,southern ,san ,andreas ,fault 7,magnitude #h4c7 ,for the past several thousand years1 great earthquakes have been occurring over a #cjj km length of the ,san ,andreas fault approximately every #ajj to #bjj years1 #adj years on the average4 ,the last such event took place in #aheg4 ,the probability of occurrence of this earthquake is estimated to be currently as large as #b to #e percent per year and greater than #ej percent in the next #cj years4 ,the fault skirts the edge of the ,los ,angeles-,san ,bernardino metropolitan region1 thus most of the urbanized area lies further than #bj miles from the source of strong shaking4 ,because of the distance1 shaking would be more hazardous for large structures than for one- to two-story houses4 ,the long duration of shaking could trigger numerous slides on steep slopes and cause liquefaction in isolated areas4 #b4 ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area_/,northern ,san ,andreas ,fault 7,magnitude #h4c7 ,a repeat occurrence of the #aijf earthquake1 in which the ,san ,andreas fault broke over #djj km of its length1 would cause severe damage to structures throughout the ,bay ,area and adjacent regions4 ,the extensive urban development on lowlands and landfill around ,san ,francisco ,bay would be especially hard hit and liquefaction in many of these areas would intensify the damage to structures erected on them4 #c4 ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area_/,hayward ,fault 7,magnitude #g4d7 ,the last large events to occur on this fault were in #ahcf and #ahfh4 ,should a major earthquake occur1 severe ground shaking and liquefaction is expected to cause damage throughout the entire circum-bay area nearly as severe as that resulting from a #aijf-type earthquake on the ,san ,andreas fault4 ,this earthquake would be of particular concern because of the many dams located along or near the fault4 #d4 ,los ,angeles_/,newport-,inglewood ,fault 7,magnitude #g4e7 ,this earthquake would be a serious threat to the nearby1 densely-populated areas of ,los ,angeles4 ,shaking would cause extensive structural damage throughout the ,los ,angeles ,basin and liquefaction near the coast would add still more destruction4 #e4 ,san ,diego ,area_/,rose ,canyon ,fault 7,magnitude #g4j7 ,this fault--a segment of an active zone of faults extending from the ,newport-,inglewood fault to ,northern ,mexico--would present the greatest earthquake risk to the ,san ,diego area4 ,severe damage due to shaking and liquefaction could be expected in the coastal areas4 ,because of unstable sea-bed sediments in the offshore area1 local tsunamis 7tidal waves7 are possible4 #f4 ,los ,angeles_/,santa ,monica ,fault 7,magnitude #f4g and #g4j7 and ,riverside_/,san ,bernardino_/,cucamonga ,fault 7,magnitude #f4h7 ,these faults are part of a system of east-west tending faults bordering the northern edge of the ,los ,angeles basin4 ,this fault system caused the #aiga ,san ,fernando earthquake and is geologically similar to the system that generated the large #aieb ,kern ,county earthquake4 ,although smaller in magnitude than the earthquakes previously described1 these postulated events are potentially quite dangerous because of their vicinity to high population densities in ,southern ,california4 ,d4 ,,earthquake ,,effects ,detailed maps were prepared for each event showing qualitative estimates of ground shaking intensity resulting from each earthquake4 ,these estimates are indicative of the general severity of damage to ordinary structures4 ,empirical formulae providing quantitative estimates of peak ground motion at various distances from the postulated earthquakes were developed for use in the effects of severe ground shaking on individual structures or critical facilities4 ,no estimates were made of localized effects1 such as ground failures related to liquefaction 7the complete failure or loss of strength1 of a saturated soil due to shaking71 landslides1 and fault rupture4 ,these effects can be far more destructive than ground shaking alone4 ,illustration3 ,figure #a4 ,geographic ,locations of ,selected ,regional ,events ,,chapter ,,iii ,,assessment ,,of ,,losses ,,for ,,selected ,,potential ,,california ,,earthquakes ,a4 ,,introduction ,as part of a program that ,,fema and its predecessor agencies have had underway for a number of years1 property loss and casualty estimates were prepared in #aigb and #aigc for a number of potential maximum credible earthquakes that could impact on the ,san ,francisco and the ,los ,angeles areas--,north ,san ,andreas 7,richter magnitude #h4c71 ,hayward 7,richter magnitude #g4d71 ,south ,san ,andreas 7,richter magnitude #h4c71 and ,newport-,inglewood 7,richter magnitude #g4e74 ,these estimates have now been updated as part of the current assessment4 ,estimates of property loss and casualties are based on the expected type and distribution of damage for each postulated earthquake as determined by the size and location of the earthquake and the distribution and character of the buildings and structures within the affected area4 ,methodologies for estimates of this type are approximate at best4 ,consequently1 the figures shown below may vary upward or downward by as much as a factor of two or three4 ,this degree of uncertainty does not affect the validity of the conclusions of this report1 however1 since there are greater uncertainties in all other aspects of emergency response planning4 ,b4 ,,property ,,loss ,,estimates ,the property loss estimates were obtained by first estimating the total replacement dollar value of buildings and their contents1 multiplying them by percentage loss factors 7inferred from the anticipated strength of shaking in each county71 and then summing to obtain the aggregate loss4 ,included in the estimates are private as well as ,federal1 ,state1 and local government buildings1 insured and uninsured4 ,excluded from consideration is the replacement value of transportation and communication facilities1 dams1 utility installations1 and special purpose structures 7e4g41 convention centers and sports arenas74 ,also excluded is the potential damage resulting from a major dam failure or the indirect dollar losses due to such factors as higher unemployment1 lower tax revenue1 reduced productivity1 and stoppage of industrial production4 ,experience indicates that indirect losses could be approximately equal to the dollar amounts lost in buildings and their contents4 ,the property loss estimates for four postulated earthquakes on the faults listed below are as follows4 ,,table #b ,,estimates ,,of ,,property ,,losses ,,for ,,representative ,,earthquakes#a ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,loss to ,loss of ,building ,contents ,total ,loss ,fault 7 in ,billions7 7 in ,billions7 7 in ,billions7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,northern ,san ,andreas #be #ac #ch ,hayward #bi #ae #dd ,newport-,inglewood #de #bd #fi ,southern ,san ,andreas #aa #f #ag ---------- #a ,uncertain by a possible factor of two to three4 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------------------- ,c4 ,,casualty ,,estimates ,deaths and injuries in these earthquakes principally would occur from failures of man-made structures1 particularly older1 multistory1 and unreinforced brick masonry buildings built before the institution of earthquake-resistant building codes4 ,experience has shown that some modern multistory buildings--constructed as recently as the late #aifj's1 but not adequately designed or constructed to meet the current understanding of requirements for seismic resistance--are also subject to failure4 ,consequently1 the number of fatalities will be strongly influenced by the number of persons within high-occupancy buildings1 capable of collapsing1 or by failure of other critical facilities such as dams4 ,additional imponderables are the degree of saturation of the ground at the time of the event and the possibility of weather conditions conducive to the spread of fire4 ,a conflagration such as occurred in the #aijf ,san ,francisco earthquake1 is not considered likely to occur in any of the analyzed events1 however1 because of improvements in fire resistance of construction and firefighting techniques4 ,nonetheless1 numerous smaller fires must be anticipated in any of the analyzed events and a ,santa ,ana type wind could cause serious problems4 ,an additional element of uncertainty in estimating casualties from earthquake stems from not knowing where most of the population will be at the time of the earthquake4 ,in the early morning 7i4e41 #b3cj a4m47 most people are at home1 by far the safest environment during a seismic emergency4 ,at #b3jj in the afternoon1 on the other hand1 the majority of people are at their places of employment and therefore vulnerable to collapse of office buildings4 ,around #d3cj p4m4 many more people are in the streets and thus subject to injury due to falling debris or failures of transportation systems4 ,consequently1 depending on the time of day1 wide variations in the number of casualties can be expected4 ,following are estimates of dead and injured 7requiring hospitalization7 for each of the four representative faults and for the three time periods just discussed4 ,,table #c ,,estimates ,,of ,,casualties#a ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,fault ,time ,dead ,hospitalized#b ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,northern ,san ,andreas #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ab1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #aj1jjj #cg1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #aa1jjj #dd1jjj ,hayward #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ac1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #h1jjj #cj1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #g1jjj #bg1jjj ,southern ,san ,andreas #b3cj a4m4 #c1jjj #ab1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #ab1jjj #ej1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #ad1jjj #ee1jjj ,newport-,inglewood #b3cj a4m4 #d1jjj #ah1jjj #b3jj p4m4 #ba1jjj #hc1jjj #d3cj p4m4 #bc1jjj #ia1jjj ---------- #a ,uncertain by a possible factor of two to three4 #b ,injuries not requiring hospitalization are estimated to be from #ae to #cj times the number of deaths4 ---------------------------------------- --------------------------- ,d4 ,,overview ,,of ,,other ,,types ,,of ,,damage ,for this assessment1 estimates of damage to substantial numbers of different type facilities essential to the immediate response capability were updated4 ,earthquakes associated with the same four major fault systems identified earlier in this chapter were used as a basis for these estimates4 ,the types of facilities analyzed included hospitals1 medical supply storages1 blood banks1 and custodial care homes1 together with their essential services and personnel resources4 ,although newer hospitals in ,california are being built according to substantially improved seismic safety standards and practices1 older hospital facilities can be expected to be poorly resistant to earthquakes4 ,among residential buildings1 single family homes are expected to suffer structural damage and loss of contents4 ,damage to multifamily dwellings--particularly older buildings--would1 in all likelihood1 be more extensive4 ,analysis of expected damage indicates that temporary housing for as many as #bjj1jjj families might be needed--a requirement calling for careful planning and exceptional management skills4 ,schools are judged to be among the safest facilities exposed to the earthquakes4 ,since passage of the ,field ,act in #aicc1 after the ,long ,beach earthquake1 school buildings in ,california have been continuously improved to withstand seismic hazards4 ,as a result of continuing and substantial upgrading of design and construction practices in the past #aj years1 dams and reservoirs can be expected to show an improved performance in an earthquake4 ,nonetheless1 on a contingency basis1 one dam failure might be assumed for each planning effort4 ,realizing the fact that #hd key communications facilities1 earth stations1 ,department of ,defense voice and data switches1 commercial transoceanic cable heads1 ,federal ,telecommunications ,system switches1 and major direct distance dial switches are located within #ee miles of either ,los ,angeles or ,san ,francisco1 damage must be expected to occur4 ,with this realization1 priorities have been assigned to all critical circuits transiting the key facilities1 based on established criteria of criticality of service continuity4 ,national warning systems circuitry1 command and control circuits1 and circuits supporting diplomatic negotiations 7of which a high concentration exists in ,california7 are examples of those circuits carrying high-restoration priority4 ,in the civil sector there would be #bd to #gb hours of minimal communications1 with a possible blackout of telephonic communications in the area immediately following an earthquake4 ,the commercial carriers would institute network control procedures to regain control of the situation as fast as possible4 ,the impact on transportation facilities in any of the four hypothesized earthquakes could be massive4 ,since the magnitude and severity is unprecedented in recent years1 conclusions regarding losses must be accepted as tentative4 ,as in the case of hospitals1 however1 the lessons learned in earthquakes during the past #aj years are being incorporated in the design and construction of new facilities4 ,in general1 all major transportation modes would be affected--highways1 streets1 overpasses and bridges1 mass transit systems1 railroads1 airports1 pipelines1 and ocean terminals1 although major variances in losses are expected among the modes4 ,from a purely structural standpoint1 the more rigid or elevated systems 7such as railroads and pipelines7 which cross major faults on an east-west axis would incur the heaviest damage1 with initial losses approaching #ajj percent4 ,other major systems 7such as highways1 airports1 and pile-supported piers at water terminals7 have better survivability characteristics and therefore would fare much better1 with damage generally in the moderate range of #ae to #cj percent4 ,these transportation facility loss estimates are stated in terms of immediate post-quake effects4 ,they do not reflect the impact of priority emergency recovery efforts and expedient alternatives that are available1 some within hours1 to aid in restoration of transportation capacity4 ,in addition1 transportation systems generally have an inherently significant degree of redundancy and flexibility4 ,consequently1 an unquantified but significant movement capability in all transport modes is expected to survive4 ,finally1 these loss estimates do not take into account the question of availability of essential supporting resources1 particularly petroleum fuels1 electricity1 and communications4 ,in the initial response phase1 these could prove to be the most limiting factors in the capability of the transportation system4 ,business and industry would be affected by damage to office buildings1 plants1 and other support facilities4 ,although the #aiga ,san ,fernando earthquake occurred on the margin of a largely suburban area1 industrial facilities incurred significant damage4 ,for example1 several buildings of the kind commonly used for light industry or warehouses suffered from collapsed roofs or walls4 ,generally1 building codes do not apply to special industrial facilities1 and the ability of these structures to resist earthquake shaking will depend largely on the foresight of the design engineer4 ,for example1 a major electrical power switching yard and a water filtration plant were seriously damaged in the #aiga ,san ,fernando earthquake4 ,about #aj percent of the population and industrial resources of the ,nation are located in ,california4 ,over #he percent of these resources 7or about #h4e percent of the ,nation's total7 are located in the #ba ,california counties that are subject to the possibility of damage from a major earthquake4 ,much of the aerospace and electronics industry is centered in ,california4 ,for example1 about #ef percent of the guided missiles and space vehicles1 #dj percent of the semiconductors1 #be percent of the electronic computer equipment1 and approximately #ba percent of the optical instruments and lenses manufactured in the ,nation are manufactured in these #ba counties4 ,the probability that all these counties would be affected by one earthquake is extremely remote2 yet the significant concentration of key industries remains a concern4 ,for example1 about #be percent of the ,nation's semiconductors are manufactured in ,santa ,clara ,county1 an area along the ,northern ,san ,andres fault that suffered very heavy damage in the #aijf ,san ,francisco earthquake4 ,estimates of damage to these industrial facilities and the resulting loss of production have not been made4 ,similarly1 the resulting impact of possible damage to national production has not been adequately analyzed4 ,federally regulated financial institutions were generically analyzed to determine their ability to continue to promote essential services in the event of a major earthquake like those that have been postulated for this assessment4 ,the conclusion reached thus far is that large-magnitude earthquakes pose no significant or unanticipated problems of solvency and liquidity for such institutions4 ,the ,federal ,reserve ,system and other regulatory entities have procedures in place that are designed--and have been tested--specifically to provide for the continued operation of financial institutions immediately following an earthquake or other emergency4 ,,chapter ,,iv ,,an ,,assessment ,,of ,,the ,,current ,,state ,,of ,,readiness ,,capability ,,of ,,federal1 ,,state1 ,,and ,,local ,,governments ,,for ,,earthquake ,,response ,a4 ,,introduction ,an earthquake of catastrophic magnitude1 with or without credible warning1 happens suddenly4 ,the potential for disaster1 however1 does not occur suddenly4 ,the degree of preparedness and commitment to comprehensive planning and mitigation programs for the inevitable event will largely determine the degree of hardship to be experienced through loss of life1 human suffering1 property destruction1 and the other related economic1 social1 and psychological aspects of disruption to day-to-day community activities4 ,the impacts can be reduced substantially from current expected levels through the development and implementation of improved and more widely practiced earthquake hazards reduction measures4 ,these include coordinated emergency preparedness plans and procedures1 earthquake prediction and warning systems1 improved construction techniques1 and effective public education and information programs4 ,the ,state of ,california ,office of ,emergency ,services 7,,oes7 and ,,fema conducted an analysis of the readiness capability for potential catastrophic earthquakes in ,california at the ,federal1 ,state1 and local government levels4 ,the planning of #bb counties and #ch cities1 of #cd ,state agencies1 and of #ag ,federal organizations were reviewed with the following objectives3 7a7 identify opportunities for improvement2 7b7 provide a basis for making decisions that would strengthen program direction and planning efforts2 and 7c7 specify resource needs and potential legislative initiatives4 ,annex #b summarizes current ,federal and ,california earthquake planning4 ,the environment in which preparedness planning in ,california occurs is characterized by the following observations of public expectations and attitudes3 ,there is widespread public support for government action4 ,most people have some ideas as to what government should be doing4 ,there is understanding of the need for hazard reduction as well as emergency response planning4 ,people are willing1 in the abstract1 to have government funds spent for hazard mitigation4 ,the public is not very satisfied with what government officials have done4 ,public officials perceive that current preparedness plans and response are inadequate at best4 ,as discussed below1 the review indicates that all is not well in earthquake plans and preparedness4 ,current plans and preparedness are judged to be adequate for the moderate earthquakes most likely to occur frequently in ,california4 ,by moderate it is meant an event causing property damage on the order of #a to #b billion4 ,such an event1 however1 will severely tax existing resources and provide a major test of management relationship among different governmental jurisdictions and levels4 ,for a catastrophic earthquake1 current plans and preparedness are clearly inadequate1 leading to a high likelihood that ,federal1 ,state1 and local response activities would become disorganized and largely fail to perform effectively for an extended period of time4 ,b4 ,,state ,,and ,,local ,,response ,although there are widely differing approaches1 local emergency planning in ,california generally consists of a basic plan and a series of contingency plans4 ,the basic plan establishes the authority1 sets forth references1 addresses hazard vulnerability1 states the planning assumptions1 establishes an emergency services organization1 assigns tasks1 formulates a mutual aid system1 and directs the development of specific support annexes4 ,for those hazards identified in the basic plan1 a separate contingency plan is then developed to address the unique nature of the hazardous event4 ,the contingency plan contains service support plans for each of the functional operations1 including detailed standard operating procedures4 ,the planning efforts of local jurisdictions are coordinated with adjacent jurisdictions and the ,california ,,oes for consistency4 ,a plan is not considered complete without the support annexes which make the plan operational4 ,the survey undertaken for this assessment disclosed that approximately #ic percent of the jurisdictions examined have existing1 basic plans2 #ej percent have completed annexes2 #bh percent of the basic plans addressed an earthquake hazard vulnerability2 #ce percent have planned for earthquake contingency2 and only #a percent 7one city7 has a plan to respond to an earthquake prediction4 ,at the ,state level1 the ,california ,,oes1 as an integral part of the ,governor's ,office1 functions as his immediate staff and coordinating organization in carrying out the ,state's emergency responsibilities4 ,specific emergency assignments have been made to #cd ,state agencies by the ,,oes ,director through a series of ,administrative ,orders4 ,during emergencies the activities of these agencies and departments are coordinated by the ,california ,,oes4 ,the ,state ,,oes is also responsible for maintaining and updating the ,california ,emergency ,plan 7,,cep7 and associated readiness plans4 ,as in the case of local plans1 the basic document is supported by operational annexes as listed below3 ,,contingency ,,mutual ,,aid ,earthquake ,fire and ,rescue ,earthquake ,prediction ,law ,enforcement ,oil ,spill ,medical ,nuclear ,blackmail ,utilities ,reactor ,accident ,military ,support ,radioactive ,material ,incident ,flood ,,supporting ,,systems ,,emergency ,,resources ,,management ,warning ,construction and ,housing ,emergency ,broadcast ,system ,economic ,stabilization ,emergency ,public ,information ,food ,intelligence ,operations ,health ,radiological ,defense ,industrial ,production ,manpower ,petroleum ,telecommunications ,transportation ,utilities ,based on this planning concept1 the review assessed quantitatively the preparedness activities of the #cd ,state agencies that have preparedness responsibilities in accordance with the ,,cep4 ,the quantitative data are listed in the following table4 ,,table #d ,,quantitative ,,assessment ,,of ,,state ,,preparedness ,,activities ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,number of ,percent of ,preparedness ,element ,agencies #cd ,agencies ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,existence of ,plan #bb #fe ,conduct of ,exercises #bg #gi ,public ,education ,activities #aj #bi ,public ,information ,activities #i #bf ,operational ,capability #cb #id ---------------------------------------- ------------------------- ,the quality of the plans1 activities1 and operational capabilities were then evaluated on a scale of #a 7expected to fail_/inadequate7 to #e 7expected to succeed well_/adequate74 ,the qualitative results are shown below4 ,,table #e ,,qualitative ,,assessment ,,of ,,state ,,preparedness ,,activities ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,preparedness ,element ,capability ,rating ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,planning #b4fg ,exercises #b4fd ,public ,education #a4dd ,public ,information #a4ej ,operational ,capability #b4ia ---------------------------------------- ------------------ ,it should be emphasized that these ratings apply to the ,state's present level of planning and preparedness for response to a major destructive earthquake 7magnitude #h71 not a moderate 7,san ,fernando-type7 event4 ,c4 ,,federal ,,response ,at the ,federal level the principal capability to respond to a catastrophic earthquake in ,california resides in ,,fema1 the agency responsible by law to coordinate ,federal activities in all emergencies4 ,,fema has developed a basic plan for supplemental ,federal assistance for a major earthquake in the ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,this plan1 however1 covers only the emergency phase of response 7first few days of efforts to save lives and protect property74 ,in addition1 ,,fema is participating in a broader effort concentrating in ,southern ,california4 ,this cooperative effort is getting under way with ,state and local governments1 other ,federal departments1 voluntary agencies1 practicing professions1 business and commercial interests1 labor1 educators1 and researchers4 ,it is expected to develop an effective program to respond to an earthquake or a credible earthquake prediction in that part of the ,state4 ,the emphasis is being placed on public safety1 reduction of property damage1 self-help on the part of individuals1 socioeconomic impacts1 improved response and long-range recovery planning1 mitigation activities1 and public participation for both the post-prediction and immediate post-earthquake periods4 ,this pilot effort is expected to be usable in other highly seismic areas of ,california as well as in other ,states4 ,in the event of a catastrophic earthquake1 a substantial number of ,federal agencies would provide support to and be coordinated by ,,fema4 ,illustrative are the following3 #a4 ,department of ,defense 7,,dod7 ,initially1 local military commanders may provide necessary support to save lives1 alleviate suffering1 or mitigate property damage4 ,normally1 additional ,,dod resources would not be committed until a presidential declaration of an emergency or major disaster4 ,when this occurs1 the ,secretary of the ,army is ,,dod ,executive ,agent for military support4 ,the ,commander1 ,sixth ,u4,s4 ,army1 at the ,presidio1 ,san ,francisco1 has been further delegated authority to coordinate disaster relief operations in the western portion of the ,united ,states4 ,extensive planning and coordination have taken place between the ,sixth ,u4,s4 ,army and ,,fema ,region ,,ix4 ,,dod emergency functions include3 damage survey1 search and rescue1 emergency medical care1 identification and disposition of dead1 emergency debris clearance1 emergency roads and bridge construction1 airfield repair1 and identification and demolition of unsafe structures4 ,specific units have been identified to respond to an earthquake in any of the major population centers of ,california4 ,for example1 at this time the following units would be prepared for commitment within #h hours after a disaster is declared by the ,president3 ,six medical units with a #a1cbj bed capacity ,seven helicopter units with #ij utility helicopters and #cf medium helicopters ,one ,infantry brigade of #a1ejj personnel ,two engineer units with #gh pieces of heavy equipment ,two transportation units with #abd cargo trucks and trailers ,these as well as additional ,,dod assets could be made available1 contingent on defense priorities4 #b4 ,the ,national ,communication ,system ,this ,agency's plan1 the ,national ,plan for ,communications ,support in ,emergencies and ,major ,disasters1 provides for planning and using national telecommunications assets and resources during presidentially declared emergencies and major disasters4 ,the plan1 which has been exercised repeatedly in past disasters1 provides the management structure and the communications staff to support ,,fema4 ,restoration priorities have been assigned to all critical circuits4 #c4 ,department of ,transportation 7,,dot7 ,,dot has established an ,office of ,emergency ,transportation4 ,this office has developed and maintains comprehensive emergency plans and procedural manuals for natural disasters and other civil crises4 ,it constantly monitors the civil transportation system for indications of potential adverse impacts from all hazards4 ,it conducts scheduled periodic training and readiness exercises for ,,dot emergency personnel and maintains quick response cells and emergency operating facilities at ,,dot headquarters and in the field to provide an immediate reaction capability4 ,the system has been activated several times in the recent past 7e4g41 ,three ,mile ,island1 #aigi ,energy_/,fuel ,crisis1 ,independent ,truckers' ,strike1 and the ,mt4 ,st4 ,helens eruption74 ,d4 ,,considerations ,,for ,,improving ,,response ,,capability ,earthquake prediction has not been incorporated into existing plans4 ,response to predictions in the current environment1 if given1 would be ad hoc4 ,the ,state of ,california has only a rudimentary plan and the ,federal ,government none4 ,the ,city of ,los ,angeles has examined the problem extensively1 but only considers its own jurisdiction and has not produced an actionable plan4 ,current planning for the recovery period is incomplete1 uncoordinated1 and not functional4 ,state and local governments have done little to plan for the recovery period when1 following the emergency lifesaving phase1 efforts and resources are concentrated on restoring the functioning of the community4 ,they presume that the ,federal ,government will step in after a presidential declaration4 ,the ,federal ,government has an untested draft plan for the ,san ,francisco area that is not fully coordinated with the ,state plans4 ,current ,federal plans are geared to the provision of assistance on the order of a few hundred million dollars4 ,thus1 there is little confidence that they would function under the requirements for tens-of-billions-of-dollars and concomitant service demands4 ,both ,federal and ,state agencies need to commit the financial resources and assignment of personnel to maintain and enhance earthquake plans and preparedness4 ,earthquake preparedness1 although responding to high damage expectation1 is still based upon a relatively low probability occurrence4 ,when it is in competition with pressing social needs for a portion of limited resources1 social needs tend to prevail at all levels of government4 ,without a clear commitment1 future development of earthquake preparedness1 as in the past1 is problematic and its implementation is in considerable doubt4 ,the ,federal earthquake preparedness effort needs to focus on a high state of readiness4 ,history in the area of natural hazard mitigation suggests that assignment of responsibility1 even by the ,president1 when not followed by leadership and regular oversight over the allocation of financial resources1 seldom leads to programs which can be expected to function4 ,the same weakness is evidenced at the ,state and local government levels with few exceptions4 ,the stresses likely to occur in emergency response programs after a catastrophic earthquake will be such that effective response will require a cooperative1 integrated effort among different jurisdictions and levels of government4 ,experience in other areas of planning and preparedness1 particularly for civil defense1 indicates that damage to existing programs occurs when the ,federal ,government raises expectations of the public and of other levels of government and then fails to follow through with implementation and funding4 ,it is better to maintain the status quo with minor changes at the margin than to announce substantial program initiatives and not meet their requirements4 ,,chapter ,v ,,an ,,assessment ,,of ,,the ,,social ,,impacts ,often1 it is assumed that disasters leave masses of the population in the impacted areas dazed and helpless and unable to cope with the new conditions1 or that those not so immobilized panic or display antisocial behavior4 ,another common assumption is that local communities and organizations are rendered ineffective to handle the many problems1 leading to further disorganization1 loss of morale1 and requiring the quick assertion of strong outside leadership and control4 ,practical experience and field studies of disasters indicate that these assumptions are not necessarily correct4 ,the widespread sharing of danger1 loss1 and deprivation produces an intimate cooperativeness among the survivors1 which overcomes social isolation and provides a channel for very close communication and expression and a major source of physical and emotional support and reassurance4 ,this capacity seems to account for the resiliency of personality and social organization in dealing with threat and danger4 ,it is also at the base of the ability of social life to regenerate4 ,in addition1 a good case can be made in that community systems experiencing impact may be more efficient and rational than they are in normal circumstances4 ,normal 7pre-disaster7 community life traditionally operates at a low level of effectiveness and efficiency4 ,activities are directed toward a very diffuse set of goals1 just as human resources within the community are inadequately utilized4 ,upon disaster impact1 certain community goals--care for victims and the restoration of essential services--develop a high priority while others are ignored or held in abeyance4 ,thus1 the entire range of community resources1 even taking into account losses1 can be allocated to the accomplishment of the more critical goals4 ,also1 human resources are better utilized4 ,many women1 older persons1 younger persons1 and members of minorities now become productive2 the labor market after impact is open to those underutilized resources4 ,in effect1 then1 disasters create the conditions for the more efficient utilization of material resources and the more effective mobilization of human resources4 ,to accomplish this1 certain modifications have to occur in the normal community structure1 since the usual decision-making structures are designed for a different range and type of problem4 ,outsiders see this restructuring process as disorganized1 chaotic1 and creating the necessity for the imposition of some strong outside authority4 ,on the contrary1 this restructuring process is functional and adaptive4 ,its consequences are seen in communities and societies that rebound dramatically from the disruption and destruction to levels of integration1 productivity1 and growth capacity far beyond the pre-disaster state4 ,in summary1 the picture drawn points to the capacity of individuals and institutions to deal with difficult problems created by disaster impact4 ,it also points to the adaptive capacity of social organization within communities to deal with unique and dramatic problems4 ,these findings are not an argument against planning nor against outside assistance1 but they should condition both the nature of planning and the direction of assistance4 ,,annex #a ,,letters ,,of ,,correspondence ,,the ,,white ,,house ,,washington ,september #ai1 #aihj ,to ,governor ,jerry ,brown ,as you know1 following my trip to view the destructive impacts of the volcanic eruption of ,mt4 ,st4 ,helens in the ,state of ,washington1 ,i directed that an assessment be undertaken of the consequences and state of preparedness for a major earthquake in ,california4 ,this review1 chaired by my ,science and ,technology ,advisor1 ,frank ,press1 is now complete4 ,we are grateful for the assistance provided by your staff and the other ,state1 and local officials in this effort4 ,although current response plans are generally adequate for moderate earthquakes1 ,federal1 ,state1 and local officials agree that additional preparation is required to cope with a major earthquake4 ,prudence requires1 therefore1 that we take steps to improve our preparedness4 ,while the primary responsibility for preparedness rests with the ,state of ,california1 its local governments and its people1 the magnitude of human suffering and loss of life that might occur and the importance of ,california to the rest of the ,nation require increased ,federal attention to this important issue4 ,accordingly1 ,i have directed that the ,federal government increase its work with you to supplement your efforts4 ,the ,federal efforts will be led by the ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency and include the ,department of ,defense and other ,departments and agencies as appropriate4 ,as a ,nation1 we must reduce the adverse impacts of a catastrophic earthquake to the extent humanly possible by increasing our preparedness for this potential eventuality4 ,sincerely1 signed ,jimmy ,carter ,the ,honorable ,edmund ,g4 ,brown1 ,jr4 ,governor of ,california ,sacramento1 ,california #iehad ,september #bf1 #aihj ,the ,honorable ,jimmy ,carter ,the ,president ,the ,white ,house ,washington1 ,d4,c4 #bjejj ,dear ,mr4 ,president3 ,let me take this opportunity to review our conversations over the last few months regarding increased seismic activity in ,california4 ,when we met in ,oakland on ,july #d ,i raised the issue of seismic hazards4 ,i was concerned then with the steady increase in seismic activity in ,california since #aigh4 ,sharing my concern1 you directed that the ,national ,security ,council join with my staff and certain local experts to conduct a quick study on the potential for a great earthquake in ,california4 ,as you know1 significant theoretical and public policy research had already been completed by our ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 ,state ,geologist1 ,earthquake ,prediction ,evaluation ,council and the ,office of ,emergency ,services4 ,together with the ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey and the ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency 7,,fema71 they had clearly been keeping abreast of the state of the art of earthquake prediction4 ,indeed1 combined state and federal efforts1 founded on major theoretical advances in ,american1 ,russian and ,chinese seismic and geological theory since the early #aigjs1 had shifted the language of earthquake prediction in ,california from if to when6 ,in light of my personal interest in this subject1 ,i have signed into law ,assemblyman ,frank ,vicencia's ,,ab #bbjb1 a jointly funded state-federal project to design a comprehensive earthquake prediction-response plan4 ,it is the state's intention to prepare a plan for the greater ,los ,angeles area as quickly as feasible4 ,in my view1 such a fullscale prediction-response program had become possible only after the research findings of both physical and policy scientists during the past five years4 ,it is my conviction that such a plan is now timely--neither too early nor too late4 ,in this context1 your recognition of this issue in our conversation of ,september #bb in ,los ,angeles was a welcome personal reinforcement of our state and local efforts4 ,i am also grateful for the ,september #c briefing in ,sacramento by ,mr4 ,john ,macy1 ,director of ,,fema1 regarding the latest ,u4,s4 ,geological ,survey interpretations of anomalies around ,california's system of geological faults4 ,as soon as we have received the final ,,fema report on the details of those anomalies1 ,i will ask the state geologist to evaluate the report1 confer with colleagues in the ,geological ,survey and have all state and local officials fully briefed4 ,at that time1 ,i would be grateful for an early opportunity to meet with you and explore next steps4 ,i am confident that a heightened state of awareness among my fellow ,californians will so deploy the resources of the state1 plus available federal supplementary assistance1 as to minimize the loss of life and property in the event of a great earthquake4 ,sincerely1 _/s_/ ,edmund ,g4 ,brown1 ,jr4 ,governor ,,annex #b ,,current ,,california ,,and ,,federal ,,earthquake ,,response ,,planning ,a4 ,,nature ,,of ,,emergency ,,planning ,an emergency1 as used in this report1 is defined as an unexpected1 sudden or out-of-the-ordinary event or series of events adversely affecting lives and property which1 because of its magnitude1 cannot be handled by normal governmental processes4 ,emergency response planning is the process that addresses preparedness for and response to an emergency4 ,emergency response planning is an evolutionary1 ongoing process and is prerequisite to all other emergency readiness activities4 ,it is a comprehensive process that identifies the potential hazardous events1 and the vulnerability to such hazards1 estimates expected losses1 and assesses impacts of such events4 ,the development of written plans is followed by placement of capabilities to implement the response plan and by the conduct of periodic tests and exercises4 ,the most difficult task in the development of an emergency plan is to anticipate as many of the problems and complications resulting from a given disaster situation as possible and to provide a basis for response to those not anticipated4 ,the objective of emergency planning is to create the capacity for government to3 ,save the maximum number of lives in the event of an emergency ,minimize injuries and protect property ,preserve the functions of civil government ,maintain and support economic and social activities essential for response and the eventual long-term recovery from the disaster ,emergency planning is a logical and necessary pre-emergency activity for governmental 7and other organizational7 entities likely to be affected by a disaster's occurrence4 ,to be successful1 such planning must be accomplished within the framework of the day-to-day governmental structure and activity but at the same time provide for response to the extraordinary circumstances and requirements inherent in disaster situations4 ,emergency plans include the preparation of guidelines1 policy directives1 and procedures to be utilized in preparing for and conducting disaster operations1 training1 and test exercises4 ,they should also contain clear statements of authorities1 responsibilities1 organizational relationships1 and operating procedures necessary for the accomplishment of disaster response and recovery activities4 ,further1 they should address the four elements of mitigation1 preparedness1 response1 and recovery 7immediate and long-term74 ,once plans are established they must be periodically updated as conditions change4 ,updating may become necessary for a number of reasons3 increased scientific1 technical1 and managerial knowledge2 feedback from evaluation of exercises2 better understanding of vulnerability2 shifts in population and economic activities2 construction of new critical facilities2 and changes in personnel1 organization1 and legislation4 ,emergency planning is a shared responsibility at all levels--in this case from the ,federal through the ,state and local jurisdictional levels4 ,it should include business1 industry1 research and scientific institutions1 practicing professions1 and the individuals4 ,by involving all functions of government1 the planning process enhances the capability for implementing the plans through the realistic consideration of available capabilities and elimination of conflicts and inconsistencies of roles and task assignments4 ,further1 by being a part of the planning decision-making process and having identified the needs and areas of consideration1 individuals1 organizations1 and officials responsible for emergency operations are better able to relate to the expected impact and the operational environment4 ,the written plans also serve valuable purposes for training and familiarization of new organizations1 individuals1 and public officials4 ,experience has shown repeatedly that when emergency operations are conducted in accordance with existing plans1 reaction time is reduced and coordination improved1 with fewer casualties1 less property damage1 and a higher surviving socioeconomic capability to undertake recovery4 ,other benefits that accrue from planning include the enhancement of hazard awareness4 ,b4 ,,california ,,emergency ,,planning ,,response ,the ,state of ,california emergency response planning is a series of related documents1 each of which serve a specific purpose4 7,see figures #a and #b47 ,the basic plan of a jurisdiction 7item 7#a7 in figures #a and #b7 is the foundation of this planning process4 ,it is an essential administrative 7rather than operational7 document1 and as such it3 ,provides the basis 7including legal authority7 for and the objectives of emergency planning and operations ,outlines contingencies 7emergency situations7 to be planned and prepared for and establishes the general principles and policies 7concepts of operations7 to be applied to each ,describes the emergency organization in terms of who is responsible for what actions ,defines interjurisdictional and interservice relationships and the direction and control structure to make assignments and resolve conflicts ,contains or refers to information of common interest about supporting facilities1 such as the ,emergency ,operations ,center and warning and communications systems ,provides the planning basis for other supporting documents which are more operationally oriented ,the basic plan is supported by a ,direction and ,control annex and by functional annexes 7see 7#b7 and 7#c7 respectively in figures #a and #b74 ,the ,direction and ,control annex details how overall responses to an emergency will be managed and coordinated4 ,functional annexes 7for both staff and services7 are designed to address the extraordinary requirements created by emergencies4 ,they identify the specific needs1 the organizational resources available to meet those needs1 and the scheme or concept of operations for their application4 ,it should be noted that1 because of unique requirements1 annexes often do not reflect normal departmental structure4 ,an annex becomes a departmental plan only when an agency represents the sole resource for meeting the stated need and when satisfying that need is the only task assigned to that agency by the basic plan4 ,the second major portion of the ,california ,state planning structure consists of specific contingency plans 7see 7#d7 in figures #a and #b74 ,one such plan is prepared for each extraordinary emergency or disaster1 likely to occur1 detailing the probable effects of the emergency on the jurisdiction and the actions to be taken in offsetting these effects4 ,it is also called a response plan since it describes the operations to be undertaken to deal with catastrophic situations4 ,contingency plans include service support plans and checklists 7see 7#e7 and 7#f7 respectively in figures #a and #b74 ,each involved element of the emergency organization details its response actions in ,service ,support ,plans and itemizes functions appropriate to the specific contingency4 ,the contingency plans1 service support plans1 and related checklists and standard operating procedures constitute the operational portions of the overall emergency plan4 ,they address internal procedures to accomplish stated objectives and document1 in advance1 the specific organizational elements that will respond to each type of disaster or need1 with identification of procedures and resources4 ,the third major part of ,california's overall ,state plan is a compendium of information and resources needed to cope with emergencies 7see 7#g7 in figures #a and #b74 ,this includes references describing the control structure 7,emergency ,operations ,center locations1 communications1 key facilities1 personnel lists1 and equipment source listings74 ,c4 ,,federal ,,earthquake ,,response ,,planning ,most ,federal agencies operating within the ,state have a generic emergency response plan that establishes their internal procedures for responding to disasters4 ,certain agencies such as the ,corps of ,engineers and the ,federal ,highway ,administration1 which provide services and support that are used on a regular and fairly extensive basis in disaster1 tend to have more highly developed disaster response plans4 ,some of them even have rather basic earthquake response segments included in their basic plans4 ,thus1 for moderate earthquakes these plans are relatively effective and the ,federal response can be expected to be at least adequate4 ,few ,federal agencies1 however1 have developed any specific plan that is adequate to respond to the demands of a catastrophic event causing property damage exceeding the #b billion range4 ,of #bd ,federal agencies whose earthquake planning status were recently evaluated by ,,fema ,region ,,ix1 only the ,sixth ,u4,s4 ,army was determined to have developed a comprehensive capability that is in acceptable detail1 has been exercised1 and appears to be operationally adequate and reliable4 ,other ,federal agencies are now beginning to perceive the need to improve their planning and response capability following the expected event1 and are gradually responding to this need4 ,providing impetus to this expanded planning activity has been the emergence of the ,,fema ,region ,,ix ,earthquake ,response ,plan for the ,san ,francisco ,bay ,area4 ,this is a site-specific ,,fema plan based on a #aigd draft that provided for a full range of ,federal assistance during the emergency lifesaving phase following the earthquake4 ,although this plan never proceeded beyond the draft stage 7because of evolving ,,fema disaster field operations policy71 it served as the basic guide for the development of the ,sixth ,u4,s4 ,army ,plan1 and has remained a core document for identifying expected ,federal agency activities for earthquake recovery in the ,san ,francisco ,bay area4 ,in #aigi1 the emergency response portion of the #aigd ,,fema ,region ,,ix draft was restructured4 ,the conduct of the post-event response program was shifted from being a centrally directed ,,fema activity under the operational control of the ,regional ,director to a decentralized operation which provides for functional disaster support activities to be assigned by the ,regional ,director to certain ,federal agencies by ,mission ,assignment ,letters4 ,table #a indicates functional task assignment areas4 ,those with the designation ,emergency ,support ,function 7,,esf71 have been assigned to other ,federal agencies4 ,table #b reviews the principal and support agency assignments for each of the ,,esf functions4 ,on the basis of these anticipated mission assignments1 the tasked ,federal agencies participated in the development of operational annexes in the #aigi version of the ,san ,francisco ,earthquake ,response ,plan4 ,upon completion of the annexes1 all agencies were then required to develop the necessary agency support plans and standard operating procedures for accomplishing the mission assignment tasks4 ,additionally1 those ,federal agencies designated in the plan as principal agencies were tasked with the responsibility of organizing and coordinating the activities of ,federal agencies designated as support4 ,the rationale for this approach was to identify the various functional areas of disaster response for which a ,federal activity could reasonably be expected to maintain after the occurrence of the event4 ,with the functional areas identified1 the range of ,federal agency talent was evaluated and ,federal response capabilities matched to expected functional demands4 ,by the development of a matrix 7figure #b71 a total of #af functional response areas 7such as transportation1 mass care1 and debris removal7 were identified1 and #bj ,federal agencies1 plus volunteer organizations such as the ,american ,national ,red ,cross1 were designated as having appropriate disaster response capabilities4 ,subsequently1 all agencies were rated on their capability for functioning in a principal or a support capacity4 ,these agencies were then provided specific ,,fema ,region ,,ix ,mission ,assignments or tasking statements which1 when triggered by a ,presidential disaster declaration1 provide the legal basis for delivering the authorized assistance in response to ,state and local government needs4 ,the end result of this approach has been to create a much more effective and reliable capability to respond to the needs of an earthquake disaster by those ,federal agencies from which a significant response would be required4 ---------- ,basic ,plan 4 7#a7 4 ---------- 4 4 4 ----------------- ----------------------------,contingency ,plans 4 7#d7 4 ----------------- ,administrative 4 ,operational ------------- 4 ,direction and 4 ,control ,annex 4 7#b7 4 ------------- 4 ------------ 4 4 ------- ------- 4 ----------------------- ,staff ,service 4 ,service ,support ,plans ,annexes ,annexes---------------------- 7#e7 7#c7 7#c7 4 ,response ,checklists ------- ------- 4 and ,,sop's 7#f7 4 ----------------------- 4 4 4 -------------------- ,resources ,compendium 7#g7 -------------------- ,illustration3 ,figure #a3 ,emergency ,plans 7,description of and ,relationship ,between ,plan ,components7 ------------------------- ------------------------- ,,basic ,,plan 7#a7 - - ,authorities ,,resources ,,manual7,s7 ,policies - 7#g7 - ,responsibilities ,system ,interfaces - - ------------------------- - ------------------------- - ,direction and ,control 7#b7 ,communication ,capabilities -------------------------- - -------------------------- - ,public ,safety 7#c7 ,law ,enforcement_/,fire --------------------------- --------------------------- ,people ,care 7#c7 ,medical-,health_/,welfare ---------------------------- ---------------------------- ,system ,restoration 7#c7 ,engineering_/,utilities ----------------------------- ----------------------------- ,resource ,management 7#c7 ,transportation1 etc4 ------------------------------ ------------------------------ ---------------- ---------------- ,,earthquake - ,,flood - ,response ,plan ,response ,plan 7#d7 7#d7 - - ---------------- ---------------- ,d ,c ,checklist ,d ,c ,checklist ----------------- ----------------- ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,plans 7#e7 ,plans 7#e7 ,checklists ,checklists ,,sop's 7#f7 ,,sop's 7#f7 ----------------- ----------------- ---------------- ---------------- ,,war - - ,,war ,response ,plan ,response ,plan 7#d7 7#d7 ,in-,place ,crisis ,protection - ,relocation - ---------------- ---------------- ,d ,c ,checklist ,d ,c ,checklist ----------------- ----------------- ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,svcs4 ,sup4 ,plans 7#e7 ,plans 7#e7 ,checklists ,checklists ,,sop's 7#f7 ,,sop's 7#f7 ----------------- ----------------- ,illustration3 ,figure #b3 ,emergency ,planning ,format 7,a ,partial ,illustration of the ,component ,parts of a ,jurisdictional ,emergency ,plan7 ,,table #a ,,federal ,,emergency ,,management ,,agency ,,region ,,ix ,,earthquake ,,response ,,and ,,assistance ,,tasks 7,san ,francisco ,bay ,area7 ,,annexes ,,to ,,basic ,,plan ,disaster ,field ,activities ,disaster ,field ,location ,mission ,assignments ,emergency ,transportation 7,,esf-#a7a ,communication 7,,esf-#b7 ,emergency ,debris ,clearance 7,,esf-#c7 ,fire ,fighting 7,,esf-#d7 ,emergency ,roads1 ,airfields1 and ,bridges 7,,esf-#e7 ,emergency ,demolition 7,,esf-#f7 ,administrative ,logistical ,support 7,,esf-#g7 ,emergency ,medical ,care 7,,esf-#h7 ,search and ,rescue 7,,esf-#i7 ,identification and ,disposal of ,dead 7,,esf-#aj7 ,warnings of ,risks and ,hazards 7,,esf-#aa7 ,emergency ,distribution of ,medicine 7,,esf-#ab7 ,emergency ,distribution of ,food 7,,esf-#ac7 ,emergency ,distribution of ,consumable ,supplies 7,,esf-#ad7 ,emergency ,shelter ,mass ,care 7,,esf-#ae7 ,damage ,reconnaissance 7,,esf-#af7 ,isoseismal ,analysis ,authorities ,referral ,administration #a ,emergency ,support ,functions 7,,esf7 are cross-referenced by number in table #b4 ,,table #b ,,emergency ,,support ,,functions ,,key3 a3 ,emergency ,transportation b3 ,emergency ,communications c3 ,emergency ,debris ,clearance d3 ,fire ,fighting e3 ,emerg4 ,roads1 ,air ,fields ,bridges f3 ,emergency ,demolition g3 ,logistical ,support h3 ,emergency ,medical ,care i3 ,search and ,rescue j3 ,identif4 ,disposal of ,dead k3 ,warnings of ,risks ,hazards l3 ,emergency ,dist4 of ,medicine m3 ,emergency ,dist4 of ,food n3 ,emergency ,dist4 of ,consum4 ,supplies o3 ,emerg4 ,shelter1 ,feed1 ,mass ,care p3 ,damage ,reconnaissance ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,esf #a #b #c #d #e #f #g #h #i #aj #aa #ab #ac #ad #ae #af ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,annex 7,d77,e77,f77,g77,h77,i77,j77,k77,l77,m7 7,n77,o77,p77,q77,r77,s7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,federal ,,agencies a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,faa ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,fhwa ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,fra ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,retco-#i ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,umta ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dot - ,,uscc ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dod - #fth ,,usa ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ,p ,p ,p ,s ,s ,s ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dod - ,,coe ,s ,p ,s ,p ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,icc ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,da - ,,usfs ,s ,p ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,da - ,,fns ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,doc - ,,marad ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,ncs ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,ayrc ,s ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,volunteer ,agencies ,s 7,various7 ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,hew ,s ,p ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,us ,,atty ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,dol - ,,osha ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,usps ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,fbi ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,va ,s ,s ,s ,s ,s ---------------------------------------- ---------------------- ,,gsa ,s ,s ,s ,p ,s ,p ---------------------------------------- -------------------------------------- ,p - ,principal ,agencies ,s - ,support ,agencies ,,annex #c ,,assembly ,,bill ,,no4 #bbjb ,the ,governor of ,california signed into law ,assembly ,bill #bbjb on ,september #be1 #aihj1 which1 among others1 provides for ,state participation in a joint ,federal1 ,state1 and local program to prepare a comprehensive program for responding to a major earthquake prediction4 ,this action was initiated in ,january #aihj through the actions of the ,assembly ,committee on ,government ,organization1 ,frank ,vicencia1 ,chairman4 ,inclusions of specific funds for preparedness was included following a subcommittee on ,emergency ,planning and ,disaster ,relief hearing on possible earthquake prediction on ,april #bb1 #aihj4 ,the text of the ,law follows3 ,assembly ,bill ,no4 #bbjb ,,chapter #ajdf ,an act to amend ,section #hhig of1 to amend and renumber ,section #hhih of1 and to add ,section #hhie4a to1 the ,government ,code1 relating to the ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 making an appropriation therefor1 and declaring the urgency thereof1 to take effect immediately4 ,approved by ,governor ,september #be1 #aihj4 ,filed with ,secretary of ,state ,september #bf1 #aihj4 ,,legislative ,,counsel',s ,,digest ,,ab #bbjb1 ,vicencia4 ,seismic ,safety ,commission4 ,the ,seismic ,safety ,commission ,act1 which will self-repeal1 effective ,january #a1 #aihf1 establishes the ,seismic ,safety ,commission1 and confers upon it various powers and duties relating to earthquake hazard reduction4 ,the ,california ,emergency ,services ,act confers various related powers and duties upon the ,governor1 the ,director and the ,department of ,emergency ,services1 and the ,california ,emergency ,council4 ,this bill would amend the ,seismic ,safety ,commission ,act by3 changing the basic subject of the powers and duties of the commission to earthquake hazard mitigation and making certain corresponding changes in its powers and duties2 including within commission responsibilities1 scheduling on its agenda as required1 a report on disaster mitigation issues from the ,office of ,emergency ,services and defining1 for such purposes1 disaster as all natural hazards which could have an impact on public safety2 and authorizing the commission to exercise various specified powers in relation to other disasters1 as so defined1 in connection with issues or items reported or discussed with the ,office of ,emergency ,services at any commission meeting4 ,this bill would also require the commission to initiate1 as specified1 a comprehensive program to prepare the state for responding to a major earthquake prediction1 as specified4 ,this bill would appropriate #gej1jjj for the purposes of this act4 ,this act would take effect immediately as an urgency statute4 ,appropriation3 yes4 ,the people of the ,state of ,california do enact as follows3 ,,section #a4 ,section #hhie4a is added to the ,government ,code1 to read3 #hhie4a4 ,the commission shall initiate1 with the assistance and participation of other state1 federal1 and local government agencies1 a comprehensive program to prepare the state for responding to a major earthquake prediction4 ,the program should be implemented in order to result in specific tools or products to be used by governments in responding to an earthquake prediction1 such as educational materials for citizens4 ,this program may be implemented on a prototypical basis in one area of the state affected by earthquake predictions1 provided that it is useful for application in other areas of the state upon its completion4 ,,sec4 #b4 ,section #hhig of the ,government ,code is amended to read3 #hhig4 ,the commission is responsible for all of the following in connection with earthquake hazard mitigation3 7a7 ,setting goals and priorities in the public and private sectors4 7b7 ,requesting appropriate state agencies to devise criteria to promote earthquake and disaster safety4 7c7 ,scheduling a report on disaster mitigation issues from the ,office of ,emergency ,services1 on the commission agenda as required4 ,for the purposes of this subdivision1 the term disaster refers to all natural hazards which could have impact on public safety4 7d7 ,recommending program changes to state agencies1 local agencies1 and the private sector where such changes would improve earthquake hazards and reduction4 7e7 ,reviewing the recovery and reconstruction efforts after damaging earthquakes4 7f7 ,gathering1 analyzing1 and disseminating information4 7g7 ,encouraging research4 7h7 ,sponsoring training to help improve the competence of specialized enforcement and other technical personnel4 7i7 ,helping to coordinate the earthquake safety activities of government at all levels4 7j7 ,establishing and maintaining necessary working relationships with any boards1 commissions1 departments1 and agencies1 or other public or private organizations4 ,,sec4 #c4 ,section #hhih of the ,government ,code is amended and renumbered to read3 #hhig4a4 ,to implement the foregoing responsibilities1 the commission may do any of the following3 7a7 ,review state budgets and review grant proposals1 other than those grant proposals submitted by institutions of postsecondary education to the federal government1 for earthquake related activities and to advise the ,governor and ,legislature thereon4 7b7 ,review legislative proposals1 related to earthquake safety to advise the ,governor and ,legislature concerning such proposals1 and to propose needed legislation4 7c7 ,recommend the addition1 deletion1 or changing of state agency standards when1 in the commission's view1 the existing situation creates undue hazards or when new developments would promote earthquake hazard mitigation1 and conduct public hearings as deemed necessary on the subjects4 7d7 ,in the conduct of any hearing1 investigation1 inquiry1 or study which is ordered or undertaken in any part of the state1 to administer oaths and issue subpoenas for the attendance of witnesses and the production of papers1 records1 reports1 books1 maps1 accounts1 documents1 and testimony4 7e7 ,in addition1 the commission may perform any of the functions contained in subdivisions 7a7 to 7d71 inclusive1 in relation to other disasters1 as defined in subdivision 7c7 of ,section #hhig1 in connection with issues or items reported or discussed with the ,office of ,emergency ,services at any commission meeting4 ,,sec4 #d4 ,the sum of seven hundred fifty thousand dollars 7#gej1jjj7 is hereby appropriated from the ,general ,fund to the ,seismic ,safety ,commission for carrying out the provisions of ,section #hhie4a of the ,government ,code as added by this act1 contingent upon receipt of matching federal funds4 ,,sec4 #e4 ,this act is an urgency statute necessary for the immediate preservation of the public peace1 health1 or safety within the meaning of ,article ,,iv of the ,constitution and shall go into immediate effect4 ,the facts constituting such necessity are3 ,in order to protect the public safety against earthquakes1 including the imminent possibility of major earthquake predictions being made within the next #ab months1 it is necessary that this act take effect immediately4 ,,acknowledgements ,national ,security ,council ,ad ,hoc ,committee on ,assessment of ,consequences and ,preparation for a ,major ,california ,earthquake ,dr4 ,frank ,press1 ,chairperson1 ,president's ,science ,advisor ,clifton ,alexander1 ,jr41 ,secretary of the ,army ,roderick ,renick1 ,department of ,defense ,cecil ,andres1 ,secretary of the ,department of ,interior ,h4,w4 ,menard1 ,department of ,interior 7,,usgs7 ,w4 ,bowman ,cutter1 ,executive ,associate ,director for ,budget1 ,office of ,management and ,budget ,lynn ,daft1 ,associate ,director for ,domestic ,policy ,staff1 ,white ,house ,peter ,hamilton1 ,special ,assistant to the ,secretary of the ,department of ,defense ,ted ,hodkowski1 ,intergovernmental ,assistant to the ,president1 ,white ,house ,john ,w4 ,macy1 ,jr41 ,director1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency ,richard ,green1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency ,frank ,camm1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency ,william ,odom1 ,military ,assistant1 ,national ,security ,council1 ,white ,house ,robert ,p4 ,pirie1 ,jr41 ,assistant ,secretary for ,manpower1 ,reserve ,affairs and ,logistics1 ,department of ,defense ,working ,group ,members ,philip ,smith1 ,chairperson1 ,office of ,science and ,technology ,policy ,clarence ,g4 ,collins1 ,department of ,transportation ,richard ,di,conti1 ,national ,communications ,system ,joseph ,mullinix1 ,office of ,management and ,budget ,chris ,shoemaker1 ,national ,security ,council ,charles ,c4 ,thiel1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency ,stephen ,travis1 ,domestic ,policy ,staff ,robert ,l4 ,wesson1 ,office of ,science and ,technology ,policy ,selected ,contributors ,richard ,e4 ,adams1 ,state of ,california1 ,,oes ,region ,v ,james ,alexander1 ,state of ,california1 ,,oes ,region ,i ,william ,anderson1 ,national ,science ,foundation ,ralph ,archuleta1 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,roger ,d4 ,borcherdt1 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,robert ,d4 ,brown1 ,jr41 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,james ,brown1 ,george ,washington ,university ,richard ,j4 ,buzka1 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,maria ,d4 ,castain1 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,lloyd ,cluff1 ,woodward-,clyde ,consultants ,john ,crawford1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency ,alex ,cunningham1 ,state of ,california1 ,,oes ,donna ,darling1 ,state of ,california1 ,,oes ,region ,,ii ,gardner ,davis1 ,state of ,california1 ,,oes ,region ,,vi ,henry ,degenkolb1 ,h4,j4 ,degenkolb ,associates ,joseph ,domingues1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency1 ,region ,,ix ,russell ,dynes1 ,american ,sociological ,association ,raymond ,r4 ,eis1 ,united ,states ,geological ,survey ,susan ,elkins1 ,federal ,emergency ,management ,agency1 ,region ,,ix ,jack ,f4 ,evernden1 ,united ,states 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